Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Predictions Today | MLB Best Bets 8/26/24

baseball unlike football and basketball you know it's a long grind 162 games basketball is a bit of a grind but it's definitely not like football we use a lot of situational analysis when handicapping football but we don't do so as much with baseball but one angle we always makes our short list I think for many cappers on Monday is to fade that Sunday night ESPN game whichever teams play now the Orioles are not playing today on Monday but the Astros are and this does not look like a good spot for Houston for several reasons first of all a big win last night Sunday night baseball Baltimore the Astros are pulling away in that AL West to put things in perspective this is a Houston team that started the season 7 and 19 really underachieved uh since then they've gone 63 and 41 that's over a 60% win percentage no team in baseball this year has won 60% of the games overall so the Astros have really been the best team in baseball over the last 100 games after that slow start um and they're four and a half ahead in the division I think they exhale a little bit tonight and I have no problem backing Dan Alexander's Philadelphia Phillies 22 games above 500 for most of the season they were the best team in baseball I still think they might be and this is a good situational spot for Philly tonight at home against an Astros team that might be a little bit flat uh money lines about a minus1 6065 uh once it gets to that range I usually start looking at the Run line minus one and a half plus 130 um that's actually my official free play tonight a game that was just a bit outside for making the cut at wagertalk.com I've got one strong best bet tonight for five dollar special $ five Monday special and this was the second game on my list Phillies minus one and a half run line so I wanted to give it to everybody free here on wager talk TV also have no problem backing Zack Wheeler on the mount and my pitcher projection ratings uh look for him to have a good outing tonight given up only about two runs in over six Innings uh Houston's lineup by the way has hit just four for 24 167 career against wheeler and uh ronal Blanco is a guy that vastly overachieved even though the Astros were underachieving early Blanco was overachieving he got caught for cheating he's been okay actually since he's definitely been better this season but I still project him to have an erra of over 4.7 in this game tonight so I like the pitching Edge like the situational setup uh Philly's either minus 160 65 money line or minus one and a half plus 130 I think is the better value on the Run line of course the Phillies uh with travel as well they played in Kansas City yesterday they didn't play at night but I want to ask you about the Phillies home field edge of Citizens Bank ballpark cuz there hasn't been much of one lately it feels like we're laying a price for a team that doesn't have much of a HomeField Edge right now prior to the all-star break they lose two out of three to the a they come out of the All-Star break lose a series at home to the Guardians get swept at home uh by the Yankees return home uh split a series with Miami uh you know uh now last series out they did beat Washington but they lose the finale of that game it's not a team that's playing great baseball at home right now is that a factor for you at all do we worry about home road splits do we worry about team slumping at home a little a little bit as we come down the stretch of the MLB campaign I don't Focus too much on home road splits and it's interesting that Philly just played Kansas City because the Royals are probably have the most extreme Home Road dichotomy this year in baseball and Philly just won both games Saturday and Sunday as you know there by the way Kansas City 41 home wins that's one behind Philly 42 Dodgers 43 so Philly still the second most home wins in baseball this season and the fact they're coming back home Teddy without rest I think this is almost more of a road game you know there's not that day off distraction we always talk about after road trips so it does not concern me tonight and if anything maybe we're getting a little bit of value because of it Steve Merrill Steve it's customer appreciation day $5 for one play I just put mine up right before the show started we'll talk about that in a sack what do you have going for the clients baseball is going well to say the least 10- one the last 11 13-2 the last 15 number one over the last 3 days 5-0 at wagertalk.com 8-1 over the past week and most importantly longer term the last 30 days 28 and 12 in baseball up 58 units number one at wagertalk.com normally my top play tonight is $25 but you get an instant 80% discount because it is customer appreciation Monday which means my top best bet a strong Steam Roller blowout is just $5 tonight just $5 for my strongest baseball play and I'm on a 10- one longer term 13-2 and over the past month 28 and 12 baseball runsy if you've been sitting on the sidelines and missing out shame on you get a $5 best bet tonight right now Steve Marl wagertalk.com you can get there quicker with shortcut wtsm