Fin Mkts..Wed JOLTs Report available job numbers; Ira Epstein's Financial Markets Video 9 3 2024

[Music] good evening i r Cen and here we are with your financial market wrapup and this wrap-up is for Tuesday the 3rd of September 2024 6:30 p.m. central Time and wow you know September was anticipated and is anticipated by many analyst to be a weak month because if you go back in history actually to World War II it loses typically ground the stock markets in the month of September why is a whole number of reasons uh that I can't even explain I follow charts and when I look at the chart action I see what's going on today one of the biggest refinancing days of the year for corporate debt can you believe that now I thought maybe it's just a fluke it isn't go back last year last day after a Labor Day the biggest of last year so corporations for some reason like to float their corporate debt and I think 20 some out of them did it today big numbers that were done and maybe what they're saying is hey going into the last quarter of the year they like to wrap things up I don't know what else to say to you that then that's it or maybe they want to finish this quarter up up with it the third quarter and wrap up their debt I don't know but it's something in that Accord the metal markets did not act as safe havens people were running into the notes and the bonds dumping energy markets crude you're down to $70 a barrel Biden Administration energies are where are you why aren't you buying more crude for the Strategic Reserve you're holding in the NAT Gaz in the 220 level in the grain Market soy oil got smashed today as canola prices in Canada went limit down because in retaliation for the tariffs that uh Canada has put on electric vehicles out of China China's decided that suddenly the canola they're importing no no no this is not right it's all wrong it's being supported by the Canadian government it's flooding the market let's shut it down bingo so that was the spread news that you had first thing today in the grains you're trying to get seasonal Harvest lows in place now whether they're now a little later in the month this is what the market is trying to set up and this is totally normal as now we're going to get the grain coming in from the field now it doesn't start in beans yet generally it's in the corn and it moves throughout now and uh through September and October all right in the dollar a bid but not a Runway people didn't run and Mass to the dollar today they sold off a number of currencies and the dollar was up slightly tonight it's sort of a wobble so let's take a look and see what we've got the first thing we had been up here and I said if you pull back and I had no idea if you'll pull back or not but I did write in last week's letter and I pointed out with charts to my paid subscribers the odds where the market was going to break now how much is the question to get all the way down here who knows when you go back and you look at historical breaks you know 2% is often what I've seen in September in some of these indices each one's a little different obviously but this is one of the numbers can we get down to 54 7160 you might be able to okay that would do an interesting job as you can see the chart here you broke apart now the question is do we have a pattern that we can look at some people might say a funny form of a head and shoulder I don't know if it qualifies I do see that as a shoulder and that it's possible and the market comes back the other way and if it eventually gets through all this well then I'd pick it up and that's how I get up towards uh that 6,000 level plus but that's not what I'm seeing I'm seeing the market just broke down right now the pattern is super ugly you have a higher high a lower low that is not a trend the Market's fighting battle present tense at the 18-day moving average if it closes at by a lot under it it probably wants to get then to the 54 3160 level which is the 100 day average of closes Binger bands are not what stopped this rally it fell on its own uh part it I wish I could say there was a resistance Point other than just getting up into that zone there really wasn't and as I look at momentum you lost your bullish embedded momentum and you are now in what territory you still have one of the numbers over 70 I teach in my enhanced Binger band course that any number over 70 without both numbers being over 80 for a certain period of time is an overbought condition to work off overbought conditions you generally go sideways to lower and that could be what the market does so keep your eye on this whole thing if the market lets go to the downside off a shock in the job St of this week keep your eye on that as your support number when you come to the NASDAQ you went right on through the 100 day average the 18 gave ground you're in a full-fledged downtrend with lower highs lower lows and instantly oversold not even trying to lock in momentum saying ah we're going a lot lower so if the market breaks just like the S&P one of the areas of support should be the 200 day average at 18, 485 to 18619 which is the lower Binger band we then get to the Dow which is the strongest of the indices it's still over the 18-day average but it too has lost its momentum the red lines well under the 79 level I think prices are going back to the 18-day average before they make a new high now and in the Russell you're already under that 18-day average never did embed you're in overbought territory and again you've opened up the door for possibly challenging all this area there's nothing I see that drives the markets to the upside at this point in time we then get to the 10year note and you can see you came down this morning and all of a sudden you had a big reversal to the upside when we come into the five-year note the same type of thing taking place there very interesting as to what they did when we come to the sep dollar Index you can see higher lows higher High very interesting and then we get to the euro currency Down Under the 18-day average still has the the pattern of higher lows higher Highs but for the first time you don't have upside bias you started losing that last week and you're continuing with the three days in a row so now the 18-day average becomes a pivot number if the market decides to break big which I don't see but if it does from 10930 and A2 to to 10884 the 100 day average the bowling triban and the 200 day average are the support mechanisms momentum down British pound lost its bullish momentum so before prices go over the recent High my work says the odds are strong that you go back to challenge the 18-day average of closes in Bitcoin still coming down oversold instantly and support should come in at the 56750 level the lower Binger band number no buy signals in sight crude just fell apart think of this if China sneezes what are the two markets it Imports a lot of crude oil and copper big numbers iron or too higher high lower low boom you've gone right on down never did have the strength to get up to the Binger band the way that you did in July and August and this Market's now sitting with no Trend I want to make that clear you a higher high lower low I call it just a Wandering Market but that's not the case in WTI lower highs lower lows and you're under the Binger band so how often do you stay under a Binger band when you're coming out of a broad sideways action 5% of the time when you're narrower like this it's not uncommon to hit the band to get under it as you push away from narrow bands this can just whipsaw you I'd be very careful I have to say the same thing is probably true to a degree in heating oil look how it's coming apart I guess we're going to have a good winter right if you can get prices down enough we're all going to be looking at that number and a natural gas coming back up if you're looking at the numbers the US has said to be ready to double its natural gas exports over the next four years that's pretty exciting business for America we'll see if the market does that expect to see the resistance at the 18-day average of closing is what I'd be looking at right now so i' put that all together and say okay interesting times in the market what do you do well I think the first thing you do is understand the reports you're going to have in the morning the mortgage Bankers Association trade balance data the Redbook group this is what everybody's going to focus on at 9:00 the jolts number Factory orders datas at nine and the petroleum numbers pay attention to it and one last thing remember I think that you'll get a lot of worth maybe I can throw a trade idea that makes sense to you for you to you have your own idea possibly and you're going that's the push I needed or I show you my disciplines and maybe that helps you for mentoring things when you go darn it why am I doing that wrong it's another point of view we're talking either $99 49 29 or 32 all you need to do is click the icon up here here there's an email that I send out if you're on our mailing list already and you can get in that way you can always call my staff they'll help you at 866 97327 7 I promise you this ends on the e8th I've never done a three-month special and we are getting nice response to it I'm Ira you have yourself a great day and I will talk to you all tomorrow morning on Wednesday about 8:15 8:30 in the morning take care