Financial Markets: JOLTS Report at 9AM Central Time; Ira Epstein's Financial Markets Video 7 29 2024

[Music] well good evening all I rap scen and here we are with your financial market wrapup and this wrap-up is for Monday and we're at the 29th of July almost over with July 2024 and the time right now well we're getting on to 6:50 p.m. central time in the evening trade we're down in all the stock indices but you know this has been a whipsaw recently if you were watching today and you left your chair and you came back an hour later you didn't know if you were up or down in the S&P or the nastic they were going back to unchanged to lower good and lower then they'd Roar to the upside they were gaining all day long though against the Dow and the Russell as a little bit of evening up in front of some of these reports now we do have a lot of data coming out tomorrow and let's take a look at it you're going to have the Redbook group come out with the US retail sales and that's at 755 K Schiller the 20 metro area home prices will come out at 8 they've been on a tear to the upside not sales but home prices just keep advancing US Federal Reserve begins their first day of their two-day meeting culminating on Wednesday when at 1:00 we get the monetary policy announcement and then 20 30 minutes later or so we will get the beginning of the FED press conference that lasts about 40 minutes the uh conference board us consumer confidence index will be released on Tuesday morning at 9: and a big number is going to be the Jes job turnover survey and that comes out at 9: and to cap it all off we get the API numbers coming out at 3:30 and then we have a lot of data coming out on Wednesday with the this meeting with the bank of Japan we're going to have this week ADP Challenger great and we culminate on Friday us jobs report there is something for everybody here now the market widely widely expects a September rate cut some now of the different uh brokerage firms are saying three Cuts will get three by the end of the year you know every time they've done that they've gotten ahead of themselves remember we were going to have six this year we haven't had any so now they think they'll make up the economy has to turn sour for the FED to want to make up so far the data is softening which is exactly what they wanted but souring is a whole different word now what would spook the market is Friday if you saw the unemployment number jump over 42 four actually 4.2% could be spooky in itself another tenth higher but over that yeah that would probably get get the FED really concerned that the labor Market's coming in way too fast and too much going back at 401 where it's at now probably keeps them very comfortable that as long as inflation Falls they can make those cuts all right energy markets uh we saw that the Biden Administration today announced in the afternoon they did in fact use that tender to buy uh crude oil for delivery later this year and they got it at prices they want under $77 a barrel great trade Joe you should be a Pro Trader you did a good job on that one by the way on the metal markets okay a little mixed bag here same thing in the uh currencies they're all waiting to see what the bank of Japan's going to do for one part of it for Asia but the big movers what does the US say and then on Thursday morning Bank of England you you got your hands full there's a lot of data coming out right now when we take take a look at the S&P 500 we're down so far for the week quarter of a percent not very much supports back at the 5361 level I've mentioned that over and over on a closing basis that is the 18we average of closes looking at this chart there's nothing bullish here you've got waves to the downside lower highs lower lows very clearcut the Market's resistance should be the 559 275 level the 18-day average of closes if you get a market that thrust to the downside 5381 is the 100 day average of closes and the Binger bands 5434 now you've had your first bounce away from the Binger band but not in a decisive Manner and you are staying oversold in the market where's the big support probably the combination of the Binger band right into the 100 day average in the NASDAQ you came down once already challenged the 100 day average in the Ballinger band bounced and came back but now something else is happening here look at the slow stochastics you cannot count Tuesday so let's if I could get the charts to go back a bit here they don't want to give me what I want they should no it's not going to let me but I think what see this is what's moving what we have here is a market that is embedding embedding is when momentum locks into a pattern and when markets are going sideways under 20 for several days or more it's said to be locked in I use the word embedded and until the Red Line closes over 21 the odds favor that un rallies and there is a moving average that I don't show here I show it in my morning subscriber video the trader sell into to looking for the market to come back to this combination we'll see if that's still at play in the Dow you have a market that is corrected past tense not a trend you have a higher high a lower low the bias is held on each challenge so far of the 18-day average the market has stayed up and it has done the same in a nice way in the Russell and they're both giving grounds right now to the other indices as you're getting Traders playing games with their portfolios my guess is uh do they trim back a little how do they want to go into the next government report in the bonds and notes I can make an argument in the 10year note for resistance at the upper Binger Bend but the trend is certainly up and the same as in the fiveyear and we're down to 417 suddenly in 10year notes today that's an impressive number will we crack four that's what Traders want to see in the dollar Index what has been now resistance is the 100 day average you can see how this number came in at Key areas and played with the market offering support levels got that now what was support is resistance is the market stayed under it and it's got to prove it can get back over it with Verve in order to say nah I'm going to get away and make that support again you're not at that point yet the trend is up the bias is up you're into a resistance point if you can clear that and get some good news wherever that Binger band comes in and it will drop tomorrow that would be the next um resistance point in the eurocurrency it's the flip-flop the trend is down the bias is down you're oversold if you continue the decline look for the 10820 area the lower Binger band The be your support resistance comes in actually support comes in right here at the 200 day average literally where you're at all the way up to the 18 at 10892 so interesting time in that market in the British pound what are the Brits going to do is the Bank of England going to cut rates or not this has been one of the strongest gaining currencies against the US dollar this year I thought it might be the Yen the way it's recently come and then I went Ai and so on Bloomberg graphs came up and showed it's the British pound since the first of the year I wouldn't have guessed that and curs is my favorite Market but that's what it's been it's currently in a downtrend the today's high is very important you have an outside day down so when you have an outside day down 12894 is that number until it's taken out the pros will sell the market now I don't see a spot to do it the 18-day average is 12904 that'd be over that high so I don't see how you get that done and you're oversold I consider anything in a market when you have momentum under a TW under a 30 level in slow stochastics is being oversold in Bitcoin tell me that you don't see what the Market's playing at here's your combination of the 100 day average and the Binger band that's where I thought the pros were taking money off the table you've literally gone nowhere in the week and a half since I said that I know you probed higher and you got that exact highe and that would be phenomenal but you're playing games here you're not trying to be embedded it's a difficult one on the energies we keep falling now this is good news for the FED because the headline numbers are going to show a market that has been coming down remember we were at 87 we're down $8 a barrel on this right now that's important and if Brent is down what do you think WTI did $8 a barrel down there too well that translates into what inflation or deflation deflation right now price is coming down gasoline peaked out at the beginning of July four the 4th and it's been just coming down all the way through there and I mean it's one heck of a decline that it's it's been marching on it's been oversold for the longest period of time all the decline happened 1 two three you can see see it here and this Market got to the 100 day average stalled and then the break a secondary break happened and now you're fighting at the 200 day average in the Binger band to decide is there more downside or not in natural gas the chart actions bearish and you're developing that bearish embedded reading I think the pros are looking to go short this Market on rallies they'll bail if you don't get the embedded reading so you can't count tonight let's see if I can get the chart to go back at all yeah there I is going but we can count Monday both numbers are under 20 we can count the day before Friday both under 20 and the day before not so tomorrow is the key day in the market you need three days to convert from oversold to embedding most times it doesn't do it I don't know the chart actually looks pretty bearish to me right now so we'll see just what it wants to do now I want to remind you that we offer an awful lot on these information days we cover in detail and send out emails Gore here's the report here's the analysis of the report here's what option trades look like in it Futures trades we have a whole crew of people writing reports all through it charts of the day so we'll take a chart and we'll put on what we call a proprietary indicator which is a price count and a price count think of it this way it's a mixture hybrid in some ways of a swing line combined with a Fibonacci count we don't share with you the formula but we let you use our charting software to use it and you can see how it's done we have a small course on it all this is in here so how do you get this just go to ir.com free offers you'll see it on the top left or move your cursor up there sign up for as many as you want we'll get them out to you right away I'm Ira lot to talk about over there tomorrow night for sure we'll see what these markets offer US during the day and I'll see you in the morning as we start discussing what the early morning Reports look like you have a great trading day