Texas @ Michigan: Preview & Prediction | Can Wolverines find answer at QB vs Longhorns | Cover 3

[Music] back here on the cover three podcast live on CBS Sports Network one of the things we like to do both here on this show and on the cover three podcast which you can download wherever you get your podcast is to not just give you picks like we do in our locks episode on Thursday but to really take you inside the matchup the X factors the story lines the places where the game will be decided one of the biggest games of the whole non-conference schedule in the whole country is Texas now an SEC member coming off of its college football playoff appearance going to play Michigan the reigning national champions Danny why don't you get us started when you start to break this matchup down where do your eyes go in terms of some of your biggest questions or the things you think are the most important the most important position of the game it's QB uh and there is a significant Edge to the Texas Longhorns clearly with you know Quinn newers and harz Manning if you want to throw him in there too in case anything would happen there at the quarterback position but I am a believer in the old cliche if you have two quarterbacks you have none and I know that Davis Warren was a great story and he lit him up in the spring but I don't like how they're trying to figure out which ones are coming and they clab this package that's probably a little bit too big for Alex ory when I say too big they're utilizing him too much where it's really hard for Davis Warren to get any sort of the rhythm going when you're having to shuttle out uh is so frequently for Alex orgy to come in they've got to figure this thing out in a hurry neither one had a real good feel for the receivers it was Colston Loveland who is one of the better tight ends out there as the favorite Target the leading receiver but they've got to figure out the quarterback find one guy if it is Davis Warren give him a chance I get maybe a goal line package for Alex orgy we did see him scoring that game but out in the field third Downs whatever critical situations are out there I think they've got to find one and stick with them and figure out their identity of what they want to be Danny you mentioned the quarterback obviously it's very important I'm very curious how does Michigan cover the Texas wide receivers Texas has a rebuilt receiver room this year it's a lot smaller it's a lot quicker than it was last year you know Michigan still has will Johnson they still have some nice pieces in the secondary but they also have a lot of turnover in that secondary if it's me I'm not trying to run the ball at Michigan Michigan's front seven is still dynamite I'm GNA try to spread Michigan out as much as possible and make sure that new Corner make sure that new safety make sure that new nickel is actually up to the challenge of covering all that Texas Speed and then it'll be on Quinn ERS can he make those decisions can he find the open man Michigan has a lot of really intricate pressure packages it's not going to be easy but Michigan's Corners have got to be able to hold up against all that Texas Speed yeah I I think this game's going to be decided in the lines of scrimmage we talked about it on the show last week I I agree Michigan's quarterback situation against Fresno State was a mess like it was not pretty there was not a lot to sit there to watch and be like oh I feel good about that but to me the bigger concern was how terrible Michigan's offensive line looked against a Fresno State team that granted might have one of the better defensive lines in the Mountain West but it's still a Mountain West team and you're still much bigger than they are so the fact Michigan really wasn't able to get any kind of push particularly early from its offensive line either in the Run game or to protect in the passing game is a huge concern and now comes Texas who is a little bit better than Fresno State defensively like they lose Byron Murphy and Montes from the middle of that defense from last season but they have guys coming in to replace them it's more of a rotation at least based on what we saw last week in the Colorado State game but the problem was I wasn't watching the Texas game against Colorado State they didn't show you anything like they didn't have to do anything they were pretty much just sitting there rushing four guys every single time there was very low pressure rate they didn't record a single sack I didn't know that they were actually trying to record a single sa because the Colorado State offense wasn't be able to do anything anyway so how will this michig offensive line handle this Texas front will they be able to open run lanes for the running game because this is still Michigan you know they're going to try to run the ball it's what they want to do it's what they've always tried to do and if they are able to run the ball then whether it's Davis Warren or Alex orgy life will become easier for either one of them on the other side of the ball you mentioned it Bud Texas probably won't be able to run the ball against Michigan we saw in the Colorado State game they struggled running the ball against the Rams they've suffered injuries at the running back spot already coming into the season season and Michigan last week against Fresno State allowed an average of negative. one6 yards before contact in the Run game they were touching guys in the back field on average every single snap where they looked a little susceptible was through the air so that is going to be a very interesting situation here because you have Quinn yers you have these Texas receivers and we saw Michigan as we kind of suspected all offseason when wink marale takes over your defense you're going to Blitz a lot Michigan blitzed nearly 40% of the time against Fresno State what are they going to try to do against Quinn ERS in this Texas offense which is one of the few teams in the country I look at on the offensive line and say they've actually got a chance of blocking Michigan up front so I do think that that is where the game is going to be decided on both sides for both teams all right Tom what about that coaching matchup because you know it Chiron Moore he's there on the sideline the offense isn't getting going the cameras are just going to love it because he he's the new Michigan Coach and he's taking over for Jim Harbaugh and they're the reigning Champions you know it feels like he is going to get a lot of the attention here but but that head coach over there Steve sarkeesian he can coach some ball too so had you mentioned the the changes that we have wink marale new defensive coordinator at Michigan know Texas has a a defensive staff that lost Jeff Cho who's now the head coach at Nevada when you look at the coaching matchup and sort of the way that they're going to have to pass the chalk here a game that's got about a touchdown spread you know over under right around 45 this is a dagam NFL game on our hands how do you think the coaching matchup is it going to end up playing out on on Saturday I I give the edge to Texas here I I think you know we this whole show we've long argued Steve sarkeesian is one of the better play callers in the country he's one of the better offensive minds and you look at what he has to work with like yes wink marale is an excellent defensive coach he's had plenty of success in the NFL his coordinators or his you know underlings are the guys that Michigan hired run their defense the last few years they're who they learned that defense from but unlike what you know Chiron Moore has on offense Sark has experience at quarterback there's nothing Quinn yers hasn't seen yet at the college level so if they know Michigan's going to be ultra aggressive and blitzing a lot they're going to have a set of plays ready to take advantage of that and Michigan's going to have to adjust and we're going to have to see like I think will Johnson can take away whoever they feel like the best player on that Texas offense is so you have to find other ways to get them the ball and just try to stay away from will Johnson which is typically a good game plan every single week but I do still think that they're going to have to try to run the ball so maybe we'll see some screens to kind of slow down that Michigan aggressiveness and that'll allow them to run the ball more in the second half now if you want to come get Bud Elliot's lock or pick on this game come hang out 11:00 a.m. eastern time on Thursday for the cover three locks episode but as we sit here live on CBS Sports Network on Tuesday but what's what's the handicap looking like total team total first quarter fourth quarter the spread straight up what what do you think is a spot that you're starting to look at in terms of the way that this this game might play out from a pick perspective sure so I I on numbers uh I I should bet Michigan but on matchups I'm not going to right I I think if you just take pure power ratings you're giving Michigan like normal HomeField Advantage is two you're probably giving Michigan like three and a half here they're going to be jacked up they're going to probably be very grabby very physical try to you know drag Texas down to the muck but like when I look on my sheet where I want to bet Michigan or where I want to fade Michigan right it says teams who can block Michigan bet against Michigan teams who can spread Michigan out bet against Michigan everybody else bet on michig so to me Texas would kind of check those boxes but yet I think the number it's already baked in I'm not laying over a touchdown here in the big house so I will have a lot of locks on our our locks podcast on Thursday this probably won't be one of them that's why what you're talking about I do think there's an overreaction to what we see it's totally normal it's human to see what you saw based off of one game and say uh oh I'm getting off this team or to see a line move as much as it has in this game I kind of like Michigan at home chips had one of those matchups wink marale against Steve sarkeesian can he confuse Quinn yers they did get two picks against Mikey Keane clearly different level of quarterbacks one of the best in the country but I also wonder if there's they were holding back some tees somewhat some blitzes some looks that could be frustrating for that highflying Texas offense clearly Michigan wants to slow the game down so I'd probably lean under in this one but I kind of like Michigan over a touchdown at home we'll have to see like you said cover three if we lock it up or not yeah I guarantee you wink marale has like you know how people have cookbooks of a thousand different recipes wink marale has got a thousand different blitzes he could throw at you from any single time and he loves to do it I I don't know like as far as this right in this game Bud mentioned it like I I think a lot of that stuff is baked in it is very difficult for me to look at Michigan as a touchdown Underdog at home and not want to take that but I'm probably going to stay away from it honestly what I like more than anything in this game is the under because I really don't have a ton of faith in this Michigan offense right now and I have a lot of faith in the Michigan defense to at a minimum minimize damage that Texas will be able to do to them and keep this one lowc scoring so if I'm taking anything right now it's the under again come hang out 11 a.m. eastern oh oh you want me Quinn ERS W in tuscala what are we doing here he can win anywhere but you'll have to come and hang out uh 11:00 a.m eastern time on Thursday