'Israel would like to escalate, but Iran sticking to low-grade guerrilla warfare', expert says

welcome to aoo well it has resulted in the largest death toll in such an attack since the start of the war in Gaza at least 18 people are now known to have died in the latest round of Israeli strikes in Syria dozens more have been wounded War monitors say one of the sites targeted was a research center used in the development of weapons Israel regularly targets military sites in Syria linked to Iran but observers say both the intensity and the death to of Sunday night strikes were unusual Clemens valer has the details charred cars burning trees and a building in Ruins are all that remain after a deadly Israeli strike on Sunday Israel's military launched missiles overnight on the central hamama Province killing at least a dozen people and wounding several others this is a brutal aggression this is a barbaric aggression the wounded have different injuries between mild to medium wounds and some have critical injuries since 2011 Israeli bombings in Syria have mainly targeted Army positions and iran-backed Fighters however while Tel Aviv rarely comments on strikes it has repeatedly said it would not allow tahan's presence to expand in the country the Syrian Observatory for human rights a uk-based war monitor said Sunday's attacks targeted sites where alleged pro-iran groups and weapons developers were stationed including a s scientific research area in MF an allegation Iranian authorities deny we strongly condemn this criminal attack by the Zionist regime on Syrian soil we believe that the time has come for the supporters of the regime to stop arming the regime we do not confirm that centers related to Iran were targeted Sunday's raid marks the deadliest Israeli missile strike on Syrian soil since April 1st when the military targeted an Iranian Consular building in Damascus the attack killed several senior Iranian commanders including one of the country's top generals Syria has sought to stay out of the Israel Hamas conflict whose Fallout has raised fears of a broader Regional War well for more we're joined Now by Joshua Landes he's director of the center for Middle East studies at the University of Oklahoma Joshua thank you so much for being with us on the program this evening um observers say the intensity the death toll of these strikes were unusual were you shocked by the scale of this attack and what does it say to you think about how Israel is currently conducting the war well the strikes have become more and more lethal um over the last year since October 7th as we as you said in your setup um the Iran Iranian Embassy was attacked in April uh killing seven leading generals uh so these these strikes have become more and more lethal and um they're they're frequent so this is not a terrible surprise although this is by far the biggest death toll and syrians have begun to suffer tremendously under these this constant um drum beat of strikes from Israel and how is Israel framing this attack so to speak it says it doesn't want an escalation in Regional hostilities but some might say it it almost seems to be actively seeking to escalate tensions as Netanyahu comes under increasing pressure at home well it is um Israel has has been able to bomb Syria at will their the Syrian regime is extraordinarily weak and as we've seen Iran has been reticent to um escalate it doesn't want to get into a big war especially a war in which um Israel would have the excuse to bomb Iran because as we've seen Israel's Air Force which is supplied by the United States um top uh technology and top fighters is far superior to any Regional Air Force and Israel will always win in a battle that escalates like this Iran is seems to be convinced that it wants to stick to lowgrade um Guerilla Warfare using non-traditional um militias such as hisbah non-state militias such as hisbah and so forth and the hoies in Yemen and that's the uh that's the ground in which Israel is the weakest and so Iran I I suspect will will stick to those and Israel would like to escalate because then it moves into a territory where Israel is by far dominant and can um really do some major damage to Iran well is it a new strategy that we're seeing from Israel then because even former War cabinet Centrist Benny Gans he's now calling for Israel to shift its focus towards hasah and towards the Lebanese border and he's previously accused Netanyahu himself of mismanaging the war well I think you know one of the strategies that Israel is pursuing right now is is to um reap as many gains as it can from this fighting in Gaza we see the violence in the West Bank has uh accelerated tremendously the settlers see this as an opportunity as well as the military to push forward uh and grab many Val Palestinian towns and push them out it's also an opportunity to hit hisbah as you say so and it comes right at the time of American re elections when both parties are in a in a desperate competition to win pro-israeli votes and to gain uh pro- Israeli money which is a very significant part of the campaign donations as we've seen many billionaires are upping the ante in this campaign season so both candidates want to support Israel as much as they can and Netanyahu no doubt wants to exploit this um because he can escalate and hope to get American help in destroying hisbah and perhaps bombing Iran as we've seen America has sent two aircraft carriers um flotillas to the coast of Lebanon so that it can strike hisbah if the war expands and um and and I think Israel would like to take advantage of that um American support at this time when it's when America is in the midst of an election yeah and Israel has long tried to counter Iranian influence in The Wider region is this a realizable ambition for Netanyahu um you know it's not going to hurt Iran's influence but it's certainly Israel is capable of degrading Iran's military um allies in the region as we've seen you know the United States has been pounding uh the yemeni houthis and although it can't stop them it can certainly take out a lot of their hardware and cost Iran a lot of money and America has spent several billion dollars doing that so far so that's very good news for Israel with Hezbollah of course Lebanon is an extraordinarily weak position the country as we know is terribly divided uh between Christians and Muslims between sunnis and Shiites so by pounding and upping the ante on hisbah it turns many Lebanese against hisbah because they don't want to be dragged into this war and Syria is in a similar situation Syrian people are exhausted by war Civil War the last thing they want is to be dragged into this this incipient Iran Israeli battle so by upping the pressure I think Israel can degrade Iran's forces and it can turn the region into chaos dividing countries uh deeply as this um as the pain increases and Joshua you're joining us this evening from the US Joe Biden he's expected to be meeting top advisors to discuss a ceasefire deal for Gaza but where do hopes currently stand of reaching such an agreement Israeli negot associators are said to believe that chances are currently close to zero according to sources in Israel the US also seems pessimistic despite these plans for Biden to meet with senior advisors well it does seem that the pessimism is warranted you know President Biden has been saying that a deal is closed for several months more than several months now and that is imperative that we get to a deal but he continues to send billions of dollars of military Hardware to Israel in order to carry out its war and uh prime minister Netanyahu has made it very clear that he wants a total Victory sinir the leader of the P of the Hamas are is still alive and in the trenches and um Netanyahu does not want to withdraw his forces which this ceasefire would would compel him to do and it would leave Hamas still some Hamas members still alive and he wants to kill them all and Destroy them have total victory over the Palestinians who would then be prostrate in front of Israel so for Netanyahu there it makes no sense to stop particularly as he has full American support in his military effort and just in relation then to what finally is going on between Israel and Syria Syria currently you're saying the US were in the middle of obviously not long to go until the November elections has there been much coverage of of what Israel is is doing in Israel in Syria what has been happening there over the weekend you know um Syria has really fallen off the edge of the world at least um coverage of it you know the UN has stopped many of its humanitarian efforts in Syria the aid it doesn't have sufficient money for Aid the United States followed suit and so has much of Europe they have stopped and cut back way back on their humanitarian Aid to Syria so Syria continues the economy continues to contract the people are suffering terribly and um and and yet it's not being covered because Gaza really has sucked most of the oxygen out of the room and so is the war in Sudan and the continuing war in Yemen so um Syria has really not gotten a lot of coverage okay Joshua we'll have to leave it there for now but thank you so much for joining us in the program this evening that's Joshua Landes director of the center for Middle East studies at the University of Oklahoma well that is it from us for now do stay with us though for more world news