Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Walk Off Heroics and the Return of Yu Darvish

on today's show could you imagine wanting wanting by choice to face Fran at tati Jr when it counts most we are recapping last night's walk-off win from El Nino himself as well as talking about you Darvish making his return the general Vibes of the Padres whether or not this keep can be stopped Merill being at it yet again and a whole lot more let's get to it you are locked on Padre your daily San Diego Padres podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team everyday greetings ladies and gentlemen and welcome to an edition of lockdown P's podcast which is part of the lockdown podcast Network your team every day for Thursday September 5th as always I'm your host with sometimes occasionally but certainly not always the most Javier Reyes you may be familiar with my other baseball related work over at just baseball.com where I write about not just the Padre's but General baseball stuff and I'm also wearing a really cool hoodie that you can go check out and also you can check out my new podcast baseball versus the world which is about General baseball topics it's been a little bit off lately but don't worry it's coming back I promise and we're doing a Fantasy Draft soon so that should be a lot of fun and now a football coming back um you can also follow me on Twitter at haveno the best handle in the game j a v i i p n o you can message me on there if you want your questions read on the show we're going to be doing a mailbag this coming Monday so look forward to doing that as well you can leave some YouTube comments I'll read those and also you can DM at Lor Padres which is a good account to follow for updates on the show today's episode guys is brought to you by what I want you guys to guess real quick real quick guess what today's episode's brought to you by it's by prize pick guys this episode it's the easiest and most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports go to prix.com lockdown MLB and use code all lowercase lockdown MLB to win $50 instantly when you play $5 you don't even need to win to receive the bonus go check that out guys prize picks run your game and man here's the thing am I still a little bit sick a tiny bit you guys might be able to tell all right if you see a little bit of a glitch when if you're watching our video especially that's because I paused cuz I had to cough but nonetheless you know what really helps when the Padre's are playing well yes I know scientifically that doesn't make you recover quicker but man what a joy this team is recaping last night's game um I'm going to come up I'm going to come in from the rafters the way that Padre's have been playing since the All-Star break and in general by the way even before the All-Star break yeah they they were only a game above 500 at the allstar break but even before then they had a lot of really great moments we had the proar thing we had Merill being a really productive rookie not not a superstar the way he's been lately but a really productive rookie you'd seen you know Jay konorth making a bounceback season everything was was just it was really cool you had a bunch of comeback wins Machado and all this stuff right it felt like it was at very minimum like better than the nightmare that was last year in the nightmare of last year makes it that this season feels like we had to get through that in order to get to this right it's like it's that's genuinely what it feels like that in order to have this season you had to have the disaster of 2023 and if you were lucky enough to Brave through that here we are and my take is they've been such a joy to watch this year I'm someone who tries not to view Sports in a very myopic way I don't necessarily blame people if you do more power too but for me sometimes it's more than just wins and losses and to me this team has already like satisfied that right so it's almost to the degree of course I care about what happens to them in the playoffs but I'm really genuinely like this has been such an amazing season that I'm not like I'm not stressed you know what I mean I know that they kind of have to win they're a team that's set up for now but I'm not stressed about it I don't know about you guys I'm not that stressed maybe when we get actually to literally the playoff game we'll see uh assuming they make it of course um maybe then the stress will come in but I'm just not stressed about it this has been such a light of a season to follow at basically every turn and honestly I'm honored to be talking about them for you guys viewers and listeners let's talk about it though firstly you darish making his return for the Padres everybody's known about this not only did he have the injury and whatnot but he had his personal matter to attend to that the team was very patient on you know he's been out since let me make sure I get this right he'd been out since May 29th so it's been a really long time and he was a really productive starter for them uh before he went to the il/ restricted list he had a 3.2 erra and last night you might think he pitched poorly he goes two and two3 giving up three earned runs on four hits two walks 4ks but in my opinion again in my opinion I thought he looked really really good and I know that sounds weird first start back off the I you only go two innings I understand that and it was 63 pitches across those two and two3 but again first of all again it's his first time in a while and he had that whole you know personal matter to attend to on top of some of the injuries and stuff so I wasn't expecting him to go very deep into this game he's the type of pitcher that I think that the thing to watch for him for the rest of the year is just that they can build him up you know maybe he goes longer in his next start clearly they were ready to turn this into a bullpen game and the bullpen by the way was awesome we'll talk about them in a second but you know you can't ask for him to do too much so soon after coming off of this whole you know an extended period of time being away from the game and I understand he gave up three runs but to me I thought he looked great and I'm going to explain why yes he does give up a m a run to Matt verling in the top of the first inning but almost all of the big hits in this game the ones that amount to runs weren't necessarily um pitches that I thought were were thrown particularly poorly first of all I think it's worth mentioning that in just those two and six whiffs on his uh slider which I think was very very impressive and the stuff that he threw in the zone hitters weren't exactly making contact with it his sliders velocity was up and his sweeper velocity up was by up by a significant margin which I thought was interesting in total he generated 11 whiffs by the way two more on his sweeper two more on his Sinker one on his curveball I just think he looked you know the Matt verling home run that was an up and inside pitch that maybe rode just a little bit too much and maybe didn't have enough bite to it but it was outside the zone and up and M so I want to give a little bit of credit to the hitter in that regard and then he also gives up um I believe in the second inning let me just make sure I get this right it is the double to um uh was it jaay Jung no hold on one second it was the it's a hit I think it was the cult um I forgot which which batter it was for Detroit that hits um you know he gives up one run first of all via sacrifice like ground out and whatnot from Dylan dingler but um he gives up a big single I think to Colt Keith and even that one um when you look at it I just it was it was some pitches outside the Zone the damage that was done to him last night were outside the Zone pitches and for someone who's just coming back generating all those whiffs getting four strikeout I I think that for the big hits to be these pitches that were outside the zone that to me is a little bit like you got to give credit to the hitters at least a little bit I know they aren't necessarily like Superstar hitters Matt verling and Dylan dingler right like and Colt Keith necessarily but in my opinion I don't think Detroit's that bad and I think that overall like I just I like to see that yes he gave up the three but the fact that none of the pitches were really in the zone except for one right except for one he does give up a couple hits that were like ah that wasn't great they did make contact but the stuff in the zone and all that they weren't really consistently hitting so to me I thought last night was as encouraging a first start back you could have had from you darish given everything that he's been through and that's really exciting look this team man this team you've got CE You've Got King You've Got hopefully it looks like you know Musgrove has been great lately was awesome in his last start and then you have darish potentially if you work him back you can win postgame series with that I don't care what anybody say says I think that the whole pitching wins in October thing gets slightly overvalued I do I know this is like and again I'm just dropping my Nuclear takes because for me I think they overestimate the type you need good pitchers for sure but I don't think you need three Garrett Kohl's I don't think you need three Yamamoto or prime Kershaw in order to win I mean not to be mean but especially not prime Kershaw in the playoffs if you know what I mean but I don't think you need that I think you need solid pitchers because look at the rotation last year John Gray and Jordan Montgomery were like some of the big producers for the world champion Texas Rangers and then they also have a Sherer and they have um you know some some ACE quality guys out there like yaldi but I think that as long as you have okay pitchers so to me I look at it as CE has got Ace potential Musgrove has light a potential and then you have Michael King he's got light AP potential and to me you also look at UD Darvish if UD darish isn't super on point you also have this Bullpen that can carry him through if maybe he's going to need some more time to ramp up and get ready for those playoff games and also in the playoffs I also just kind of trust the guy he's been pretty good against um good teams and in big spots for this team at least in his Padre's 10 years so far and speaking of Bullpen we got to talk about that guys in just a second and of course we're going to be talking about tatis don't you worry you you little goobers out there don't worry I got you covered but first I need to take a second to talk to you about our friends over at prize picks and here's the thing we've been we've been hanging out with priz picks for a long time and you know why because they are number one I'm not kidding they are the number one daily fantasy sports app with over five million active members is the easiest and most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports and unlike other apps it's just you against the numbers pick more or less on two to six player stat 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deals like that Cale Williams one all the time so go check that out guys download the prize pick app today and use code locked on MLB and get $50 instantly when you play $5 that's right just code lock down lb on priz piix to get $50 instantly when you play $5 you don't even need win to receive the bonus guys it's just guaranteed you're welcome prize picks run your game go check it out and just like that everybody we are thriving and vibing into segment segment segment that's I kind of like segment it's like a second you know oh I like that did I just St on something the SE probably not let me know in the comments guys but let's talk about this Padre's Bullpen that was absolutely on fire last night except for one man and that is Yuki matui who has been the bait of my existence for a long time now he gives up unfortunately a two-run shot uh I'm sorry was it two runs yeah it was a two-run shot to Trey Sweeney in the top of the fourth inning which was not ideal of course but here's the thing I know people are going to come for me on Yuki Matsui cuz I I feel like I've been defending this guy for the longest time on this podcast and I still sort of Stand By it but every single time you're starting to believe in him he falls apart and frankly he just hasn't been all that good of late he gave up not just a run in this one he also gave up a run in the St Louis game uh he gave up a run in the Mets game it just seems like he's this like really okay pitcher like he hasn't really had a bad month in particular June was his worth when he had a 4.91 but when you actually look at his overall ra he's kind of consistent 3.38 his first month 3.48 his second in May then June the 4.91 then in July 2.89 August 3.38 and then of course September and the one you know in the third that he's pitched a 13 ra but he's been steady he's still pretty good and I think that he's a guy that if he and I've said this multiple times so sorry for repeating myself but but if he's like the worst arm in your Bullpen you probably have a really good Bullpen you know what I mean and matui I still think the thing with him is high leverage and he just seems to give up runs those big hits at the worst conceivable times which I don't think necessarily means that he's like a choke artist I think that this is a guy that could get better as time goes on I still believe in the man I really do and I know that that sounds crazy I know that makes me sound ridiculous but I just look at the fact that guys don't consistently hit his best pitches and to me that means he's just got to find the right location his expected ra is in the 91st percentile you know what I mean and that means something yes he doesn't throw particularly hard his fastball vo isn't up there his V General isn't up there and he does walk some batters but to me I look at his pitching repertoire every single pitch every single pitch no one's hitting ex and except for the expected batting average on his sweeper which he doesn't even throw all that much they're hitting like below 220 on each of his pitches and they're not slugging all that much and in fact it seems like he's getting just a tad bit unlucky with the Home Run luck um just giving up home run to the every Fly ball just seems to go out when Matsu is pitching I'm not saying this guy's like a stud I don't even think that he's the future closer after Suarez I think that that is that ship sailed um a while ago also because Suarez is great um but I just think that it's worth throwing out there that Matsui is still pretty good and while he can be frustrating you know not every reliever in a bullpen is going to be Aces and I'm totally fine with that and I think everybody should be too and I do think that he has potential especially if he stops throwing so high up in the zone I think that's what gets him the most and if he can trust that not throw up too high in the zone and he can also use his split finger which he has a 40.5% whiff rate on or even his slider which he has a 44.3% whiff rate on I think that he's going to be a really solid contributor and can be great in the stretch Run for the Padres but instead for now he's the one Bullpen arm that you feel the most nervous about if not for this one guy and he just made his return wandy Peralta for the Padres his return since July 9th I think the big thing with W Peralta has been one he hasn't been very good so so far 4.37 ra on the season he's good in this game doesn't give up any runs one inning strikes out two that's that's that's nice to see I think the thing with W peralto before is that he just couldn't miss any bats and that was one of the problems with him and Santos so early on the year where Santos would give up home runs like it was nothing and then wandi wouldn't be getting enough strikeout so too much would be ring on the balls being put in play and whatnot but alas he does come up here Adrian he comes in one inning no runs no hits just a walk and two strikeouts he's been he's the other one that's been consistent does he still have a thing like Yuki where I'm just a little bit nervous about him in a big situation that's just a me thing I almost don't even have numbers to prove it sure but he is transformed into a genuinely just heat like this guy has the spice when it comes out of the bullpen so we love him teren Scott he goes in in doesn't give up a run Jason Adam goes in in doesn't give up a run Robert Suarez comes in obviously as always doesn't give up a run and then Jeremiah Strat comes in he ends up getting the win as he's the one to preserve the lead in the top of the 10th but speaking of top of the 10th how did the Padre's get there again this is what's the Joy about this team I and seriously someone actually messaged me being like um and it's a friend of mine like someone who does like really good baseball analysis and work um and what not not a media person just a friend who was like at some point are the Padre's always going to make these comebacks and I was like agreed but what's so good is they're starting pitching is getting more exciting with Musgrove and darish and then they have a great Bullpen so even if the the amazing High leverage stuff regresses a little bit the rest of the team has impr proven to make up for whatever you lose in that right so I'm really excited about that and you saw exactly why with Jackson Marill bottom of the fourth inning after a bunch of guys get on base three run home run he looked amp it was a Bogarts walk and a jake korth single you know first pitch I just I talked about it with arml and on yesterday's show yesterday I really recommend everyone go check out for more detailed thoughts on Merill than just what I've been giving but just kind of The Cliff Notes is just I'm just amazed at how he's tapped into Power I'm amazed that his lack of walks doesn't really matter if he's a guy who's going to hit for so many extra base play great defense and also if it's just hard to strike him out so yes he doesn't walk I understand that I understand that like we would like to see Jackson Merill become a little bit better at um you know taking some more pitches maybe but if he's making this much contact and he's such a tough out right like this guy is such an impossible out for teams right now because even if you get him to swing he's not necessarily a patient hitter right he swings at some bad pitches and frankly he's in the ninth percentile in Chase rate but he always makes contact his bad bat to ball skills are Next Level special right so really love to see that and the fact that if you look at like some of his other stats he's his expected slugging this year is 547 his current weighted on base of 351 is an his expected we on base is 375 he hits the ball hard as heck Merill is just so special man but I really recommend everyone go checking out arml and I's analysis and breakdown of why it seems like he's really breaking out uh in a big way uh on yesterday's show so go check that out and then in the bottom of the fifth inning and then nothing happens for a while by the way um in terms of any run scored but the bottom of the fifth inning Manny Machado who has been awesome for a while he's almost been underrated this year almost in a really bizarre way and maybe he's being underrated just by like us I think he's you know how like in fantasy football like Mike Evans is good every single year and it's almost gotten boring Machado has been good so for so long and I think that for so long this season that we've almost like yep that's Machado and we're almost I don't want to say taken for granted but it's just been a little bit forgotten because it's been more fun and thrilling to talk about the Louis arise trade and Jackson Merill being rookie of the year which by the way it's officially getting to the point where you guys know how I've been on this situation it's officially getting to the point where it's like I actually will be a little bit upset if he doesn't win because it really feels like this is like every game this guy's doing something big every game and he has the defense SK pitches once a week like at some point that has to matters I I feel for him because he really is having like a rookie of the year season That You Don't See from pictures of his age like you just don't see it but Jackson Marl it just seems like it was more than just July it seems like this is going to continue for the rest of the season so I really think it's getting to the point where it kind of has to be Merl but that's just me and we'll talk about that in the future but um love to see that and love to see Machado come through driving in the tying runs to in fact both tatis and Luis arise hitting a ball speaking of first segment hitting balls outside the Zone good hitting low and middle of the plate he Scoops it as he's very well capable of don't get me wrong but he Scoops it allowing both runs to score for a second when tatis scored I actually thought like he pulled something for a second I was a little bit worried the way he he he ran into to play like he stopped a little bit so I was like oh please no you know just a little bit in the back of my head but of course as we saw what occurred in the rest of the game he turned out to be just fine and we're going to talk about that guys in just one second but first I must discuss with you one of the legendary sponsors of this podcast here's the thing man when it comes to this podcast I am a fan of absolutely saving y'all some money and when it comes to iata they are right there for you man sandals sunscreen snacks for the kids what do they have all in common you can save on purchasing these items if you use e Bata when you get cash back all summer long or all fall long frankly if you want your your Lattes or what's like the the fall equivalent of the snacks and the sunscreen and all that probably like a pumpkin spice spice latte stuff like that excuse me um and sorry about it for the cough but 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code locked on MLB that's ibata IBO TTA in the Google Play or App Store and use code lock down go check that thing out and just like that everybody we are thriving and vibing into the final segment of this show and of course you know what I'm going to talk about but first after the Manny Machado um taii the Padre's had one of the rarest like kind of situations that has happened for this team in a while right you get a David Peralta walk then you get Mason McCoy sacrifice and Louise arise gets a single and actually David Peralta might have been able to move to Third Base but there's actually this like weird base running incident that occurs where like it was hit weird and it might have hit right at the second basement so he was forced to freeze and then he fell so he had to retreat back to Second so that doesn't happen super like often in baseball but it was the rare single where nothing changed you know what I or not nothing changed but it didn't move up the runner I should say so that was unfortunate but you know it happens and also like I I love I loved looking at like the body language of Peralta like everyone just being so happy that tatis is back including your Peralta who'd been playing so well for this team that's what I love about them is that every time someone's gone down the the depth on this team has been so great that it's like Donovan Solano has been awesome you know and then David Peralta in tati's absence has been great so I really really love that and um what I really like about him is just that he's a vet and I like having a vet on a team especially when they're actually performing unlike some past vetss that the padri have brought in that were a little bit washed up but anyway orise gets that single tatis lines out on the first pitch unfortunately AR steals second second profar draws a walk Machado lines out it was well hit but unfortunately it just happened to not land in the right spot then in the bottom of the seventh you get Zander borar drawing a walk you get Jackson Miro launching a double again this guy just doesn't stop Donovan solo draws a walk then Mason McCoy unfortunately hits into a fer choice I thought he was about to pull it through and Lis arise grounds out but it's okay um it was just a little bit annoying it was just two separate Innings where it looked like the padri were going to take the lead because they've been doing that all year driving in Runners when they're on base and this seemed to have been like the one time they didn't so I'm not going to lie to you guys part of me was like ah I bet they just don't take this one today you know cuz it almost feels like the the universal you know Fates and the litigious Fates out there are like you guys have had too many you know come from behind you know runs and sare position things this year that you're not going to have this one unfortunately but of course that doesn't occur thankfully for the Padre's Bullpen which we talked about before comes through big and then of course that brings us to the bottom of the 10th inning Jackson Merill um he starts off at second base of course Mason McCoy strikes out still has is waiting for his Padre moment and frankly I think it'll come at some point hopefully and then here's what we got to talk about every now and then numbers become dumb you know and is it easy for me to make fun of the the pirate the Tigers for being like you know what I would rather face Fernando tatis Jr and that's why I think he was so excited when he hits the walk-off single that allows Jackson Merill to score from second base easily with his speed tatis loses his mind running across shouting he takes his shirt off guys folks I mean look you know what I mean we don't got to go there but my man was looking great everyone was excited about him when they pour the Gatorade on him he does a little Flex thing or whatever it was amazing I know a lot of people were having fun with that um just excellent stuff from tatis but I think he was so amped because they walked arise intentionally now I will say In fairness Luis arise has been doing very well but in a somewhat small sample size as of late over his last eight games he has not struck out which by the way he's only struck out twice since the All-Star break which is again I just want to tell everybody Lis arise again he's he's a good player those type of stats are just fun but don't forget that he's not necessarily like Mike trap because of that right because he doesn't draw as much walks and he doesn't slug enough right but even still over these last eight games he has a 173 WRC plus 429 487 486 lash line he's just been hitting multiple multi-hit games he's drawn a walker too and then what I love is he's also chipped in some stolen bases which is nice is he getting a little bit lucky maybe right because you know he's a babip guy but the problem is again he's a he's always been that so yes he's never going to be like a hard hit guy but I'm just hoping that maybe this is is a sign that arise is finally going to be doing what you know he's been an okay player for this team don't get me wrong he's been a solid contributor um even though he's not at the peak of his powers which is like a low you know 800 Ops or high 700 Ops guy I think which is huge for this team don't get me wrong whatsoever but I'm hoping that he can return to that because so far he's just been an okay batter um basically for his padr tenure but you know those last eight games hopefully it's a sign that he's recovering from his injuries and stuff he's playing through it he's figuring it out and he's going to be huge because I still stand by Lis arise one of the things that I think can happen in the playoff sometimes when you have guys that aren't only home run dependent guys who hit 230 and these guys could be good players by the way but guys who hit to30 and they hit like 25 28 home runs that doesn't mean they're bad but I think that sometimes is more conducive to regular season success postseason sometimes if you're a guy that's just known for putting the ball in play you can have a Lin sanity run and you could be great go look at Eric Hosmer why do you think Eric Hosmer was so good that one year because even though he put the ball on the ground which is bad bottom line is he was putting the ball on the ground he was putting it in play and sometimes you can just look into having a great three- game series you know what I mean so I think arise on top of what I was just saying he's also just got such an amazing feel to hit I just guys I feel like that guy's going to have some moments I really do in the postseason I think he's going to be solid I think he's going to be a pest to opposing pitchers I'm excited for him and I'm really hopeful that he has some really big playoff moments for this team um but of course tatis with the walk-off and believe it or not I believe the first walk-off of of his career and that's weird right really really weird because as we all know we've seen tatis be very clutch before heck we've even seen the the not the last time they play the Dodgers because we all know how that ends but the the previous time in the playoffs when they lost that he also had a huge home run but Cody Bellinger robbed it at the warning track you have the the Cardinal series when when he became the cover of MLB the Show when he hit the the two home run game but he's never had a walk-off and that was fascinating so he's had all of these amazing moments that are clutch but for some reason not the game winning clut isn't that funny it's just a funny thing to know that it was like his first one or at least I'm pretty sure it was his first one it's just funny to know this does not mean he's never been clutch he has been uh earlier in the year remember the Cubs game when they came back from eight runs I bring that up one a lot he swings at like a a super crazy pitch and that's what brings them ahead right but it wasn't a walk-off so it's just it's just funny like this is what's so funny about baseball so love to see him there so on top of walking arise in order to face him and it's not like tatis was doing awful by the way because in this game he already had a hit at this point he had a double like I just don't want to face that guy I get a little bit though the arise thing I get it a little bit I don't get it as much as only because of what I just mentioned which he's been hitting better lately I I didn't get it when they walked him to face profar cuz arise had actually been struggling for a while I think that was dumb and you know Nationals or was it the thats yeah it was the Nats like that was dumb this one at least you can maybe look at you know what this guy knows how to make contact and maybe we can just hope to get the strike out from tatis who is not he doesn't have an egregious strikeout rate or anything like that but he is more susceptible to it than a Lis arise or some other players so I think that was the calculus and as a result a little bit of disrespect maybe and then he hits the walkoff his first one that's why I think you saw Tati absolutely lose his mind again this team has just been night and day different from last year I think that's attribut attributable to just them being so historically bad right I think it it can be attributed to them being so historically bad in these situations last year but I think it can also be attributed to players just playing better figuring out some things some more depth on the roster um even something for Mike schill I think that's totally fair if you want to give him some credit he's been I think he's done an okay job uh in Extra Innings games this year they are 8 and one that's great and one run games they are 20 and 15 you compare that to last year and like I said it's night and day last year in Extra Innings they were 2 and 12 and in one run games they were 9 and 23 total turnaround man total turnaround so can they keep this up I don't know but it just seems like they can't do any wrong and you know as they race for the end of this season it's going to be really interesting they've got a series against San Fran after this last game against Detroit then two against Seattle three against San Fran three against Houston three against the White Sox which is great and then that's when it gets crazy so guys the regular season games in a way like we're just kind of vibing right now but in terms of playoff positioning it might come down to those last two series of the year against three against the Dodgers and three against the Dbacks that's going to be fascinating I can't wait to see how it pans out but with that all being said guys that about does it for today's edition of the lockdown Padre's podcast the only pod that may be better than the potre themselves remember subscribe to the podcast wherever you get your podcast from feel free to send me question questions for the mailbag on Monday and tomorrow we are going to be talking with Ben kaspik of lock on Giants to preview that aformentioned upcoming series should be a lot of fun talking to Ben and the Giants just made a whole lot of news because they just signed um Extended Matt Chapman for six years so that should be a lot of fun and I cannot wait to talk to him always a delight that nerdy old Ben of hims uh that should be a lot of fun so looking forward to that stay tune and again send your questions and whatnot for Monday show and until next time stay safe and of course stay faithful my fire faithful homies take care