The key to Port's success, Hawks' real X-factor, star Blue under pressure

the business end of the season is here just three days out from the start of the 2024 AFL final series we dissect all four games taking a look at the strengths of each team plus who are the X factors who will shape September this is access all areas thanks to crypto.com it's September spring is here and that means just one thing finals footy Damen Barrett and Matthew Lloyd are with me it's like CHR week for me D it is that it's a bit of a cal before storm feel of the weekend just gone wasn't it as we await these four intriguing matches which are about to unfold they certainly are lyy very exciting it is exciting I'm with you that I think it's probably my favorite week of the finals aside from the Grand Final itself so it always sets up whoever can win those uh those qualifiers uh really sets you up you couldn't be confident on any of those numbers we're going to go through them out that we but there's no confidence as we talk on this Monday morning in my selections anyway that you're about to get well you're the star tips here and if you do a dead competition I don't know which game would actually be a dead certainty at this point it's going to be very very tough let's get straight into it we're going to start Thursday Night Football Port Adelaide taking on jalong and the pal have won their last six games lyy and they're Midfield geez that's a big strength isn't it yeah they are flying I'm a big Kenny Hinkley fan so I hope he can have a successful final series and he's got to win his first final to get through to a home prelim would be unbelievable for Port adelen look at the Numbers number one from score from from stoppage Port Adela this year Zack buts is the best player in that Midfield Jason Horn France is not far behind OE wines is having a good year yeah really good year back to his best Connor Ros is the one that isn't quite traveling as well as the others Doo you think he's inj I'm not sure I'm not sure about that even Jordan sweet's done a really good job uh keeping Ivan solo out of the team and then you've got Willam Drew who is a shutdown player in that Midfield and does a really good job so that's where the the strength Lies Over a jalong team that danger field aside is probably struggling a little bit through the Midfield I'm looking for an X Factor Doo someone who can be a game changer well just look the attack side of the the equation I'll go to the defensive side n with airer I felt he had an all Australian type of year he's already been that before he wasn't this year but he has been able to control a lot of play down there and he's going to have a a massive task on Jeremy Cameron I know that negating Cameron loo is a an all of Team situation in 2024 but he's still going to need to be in the right spots when Cameron serges forward isn't he and he does to me Luma is arguably the key of the game yeah they they were very well planned put out L I think they the first side that shut down Tom Stewart really well so that's going to be another fascinating one with mckinty normally the man that gets him D how much will it hurt noan Houston and Kane Farrell as well I think Farrell is an equal loss to Dan Houston Dan Houston are now two-time all Australian most recently on the week just gone but Farrell's performance in the last game and I think over the whole of the Season he's precise kicking it's a huge loss to have both of them out going into this period of the of the season season all right let's look at the cats now and lyy biggest strength for you well it's off the back of what you just touched on frell and Houston not playing it's a small forward so yeah I think finals time tall forwards don't dominate like we we hope it it comes from often the smalls we saw obviously Bobby Hill win the North Smith last year it's these guys you know there's so many of them Dempsey Myers um you know close uh stingle so there's got four of them so this is for me where the strength lies without frell and Houston coming into that is he he's been really good since he came in yeah he's a tackling machine so that's where the strength lies for jalong picking an X Factor for jalong might be a bit tricky because there's so many good players well already mentioned the the Midfield and Dangerfield is's still the dominant and most important player in that but this guy is near equal Max homes I'm referring to again I've talk about players who I feel should have been all Australian and I think he is another one of those that the Run he gives them he look they thought they'll getting an athlete or there was a theory they're getting an athlete who might become a footballer he's a footballer every bit as much as he is an athlete that's what they love about him and he's he's tough he's creative he's smart and and here's the other one obviously this is the guy who Jeremy Cameron who since Tom Hawkins went down has taken his own game this season to another level and and I love the fact he gets up the ground and is is surging forward and he's coming in hard off a n goal performance in the last game so you mentioned Tom Hawkins there lyy my question is to you what are you doing because he is available with that foot injury we haven't seen him since round 15 do you play him or shanon Neil it's a no for me shanon Neil yeah I I'd take him out of all considerations for the entire series and I know that sounds really hard and there's no ramance attached to that that but to me they' been better far better once he went out what about Sam ding as well because we haven't seen him for a few weeks he's had knee surgery but he played in the vfl at the weekend in the Rock what do you think I think R Stanley will get the nod first up he may be considered beyond that point and and is there a role for him lordo in the backline I'm not convinced there is right now and again that's hard to say given what he did in 2022 as a key member of that backline in a preneurship team all right time now to get our tips for this game lyy I'll start with you port for me at home I'm warming to the cats drinking the Kool-Aid all season so you kind of have to had good re to it's been a good tasting drink that and I'm I think by the time this game comes around me and tips going officially I think I will be what about you cats for me at this point okay Friday Night 40 MCG it's the Western Bulldogs up against the Hawks probably two of the inform teams at the moment we'll start by looking at the Bulldogs and I'm pretty sure I know what your strength is going to yeah it is The Bigs and it's more of the strength because of what Hawthorne have got down there so it's the only real hole in Hawthorne's team it's why they've got barass and battle joining the club next year is because poor Sam frost has had to do all the big jobs Jack scrimshaw has got to be number two so with a with a bunk shoulder so I just think they're the number one side for getting the ball inside 50 they're the number one marking side in the competition so I just think one of them is going to get off the chain I think one of them's going to kick your five in my opion is it as simple as as Hawthorne showing these guys down they win l or is that just too simplistic a way of looking at a very complex game uh I think it's the Midfield Hawthorne's Midfield has to win like I think you in terms of that the doggies Midfield can get away with it uh but the Hawks have to dominate the Midfield to protect this defense away from those B and that might be tough with that will day we will get to that in just a moment I want your X Factor because at the forward line there's lots of X Factor outside of that where you're looking look I've gone maybe outside the obvious here now in in nominating Bailey Dale who had a slow start to the season but I think ended up playing as well as he's ever played and there was a reality check or a wake up call whatever phrase you want to use the way Luke beverage used him as a sub in one of those early games but his kicking is still as good as ever his creativity and and he's just so important to them as and has been a key member of what they've been about in the back half of the Year all right looking at Hawthorne now what's their strength I just love the connection of what they're doing so starts obviously their midfields been dominant and so we wanted to put a clip in of both Nukem and and Ward w and and I think Nash is underrated as well through that Midfield but it's s their entries in this is a toughest kick inside 50 sorry the toughest kick of the whole game is your last kick inside forward 50 where a lot of teams break down and uh the way they're using the footy and connecting with each other who who I think it's their hard to plan for because you just don't know where the ball's going to they have so many players who have kicked 20 goals plus uh so they don't rely on anybody obviously Kel shadir Jack Gunston all the smalls McDonald ginan it's just a fantastic forward line do you think they can win without will day in that Midfield I think they can yeah I know he started the Improvement when he came back in but yes I still think they can win with and x fact are there's plenty in that forward line oh there are n but the people who get to the forward line players are the keys in my eyes and one of them is Josh W I know you've got a big look to to do what he's done this year at such an early stage of of a career that's going to be very very very good and already is very good uh I love how he kicks goals off a halfback flank I love how he sets up play I love how you do not even question one part of his courage we shouldn't have anyway but we did for whatever reasons he's openly addressed that publicly and he's actually said he's become better for it but uh there's not many players who can do everything that he does at the moment might be the modern day Cuda by the end of it just the guy the Athletics is probably can run more endurance than Cuda but in terms of his athleticism and ability to play anywhere I can't wait to see him on the beach might run for Lord May too now the fact that this game is at the MCG do you think that holds any weight to hawthor because the Bulldogs have only played there twice this year they lost uh to the demons and then they beat the Tigers so they don't play there often lyy certainly helps the Hawks yeah I think it helps and they've played three matches haven't they in in front of 990,000 or whereabouts uh people the dogs haven't had that experience this year I still think that that when it comes to a tip those three guys at lordy focused on off the very top the tools are going to be the reason just the dogs get the job done dogs for you dogs as well dogs for me just dogs for you yes yes I'm very pessimistic when it comes to these things okay let's take a look at Saturday afternoon footy and it is the Sydney Swans and the gws Giants the minor premieres of course 320 a Sydney Derby and their biggest strength lyy what is it it's stating the obvious here Heeney Warner and Gordon it's just that they've kicked 85 goals between them and look at the the running like this is Gordon from halfback so who do you stop so we're talking about Toby Bedford what he what does he do who do he go to and I think it's Chad Warner damos man I think that's who you go to he's that type of player I don't think he suits Bedford just because of his size and his power but I think Warner is a similar shape you know not a big man Chad Warner so I think Bedford that's where the matchup should go but they're the three you got to stop well that's what they did in round 15 an X Factor for the SW well we talk about a big three there's actually a big four and the fourth member is Nick Blakey the lizard yeah he again has had a another outstanding season and he was all Australian deservedly so a bit like uh wed he can kick goals off a halfback flank but he can play tall he can play small he can fit whatever hole that they've got down back and equally no matter what role he's got he's still running like we're seeing on screen here where he's waiting for that ball over the top having already set up the play uh to to begin the the process so I think he's an extraordinary player and I think he's he isn't equal to those other three players you just mentioned there's a bit of a selection squeeze so we believe papley could be back from an ankle and Justin Macker back from a knee of course Heeney and Tom mccarton to come back into the side as well lyy that forward line it's shaping out well if papley is able to come back in yeah it's a good problem to have I think for the Sydney ons but they they all should play those those players all right let's look at the Giants as strength for theirs well I want to put jack Buckley's uh he's a giant killer that's what he is Jack Buckley and here's his numbers since round 14th uh so you know Sam Taylor's been out you know he's had some uh injuries Sam Taylor and this is the numbers I'll never forget the Charlie kerno one where that that goal came in the last minute or two he punched the ground cuz he's the ultimate competitor and there's too many backman in this game who don't defend the right way uh they want to just Mark the footy and win possession and intercept that's not how defense is and I'm still old school in that regard and that's what Buckley and Taylor do really well they they hate having a kick on them and they can intercept Mark so it's going to be a real Challenge and it puts so much pressure on those big three uh and it puts pressure on papley to score goals because Amari McLean and McDonald are going to struggle against those two lucky uh Jack Buckley didn't end up going to parison to watch his girlfriend at the Olympics and the Giants are going to get back a few Brent Daniels Conor Stone Toby Bedford as we mentioned lucky Ash comes back from suspension then you've got ricardi and Isaac who are also available Doo looking at this Giant's outfit there's a lot of X Factor where are you going well I'm going for one who's not as explosive as most in this team that but it's Kieran Briggs in the Rock we saw in the in the last game he uh really struggled with a banged up shoulder in a really painful way but he his role and his job against Brody Grundy will ultimately shape this game we know what we get with him we know we we get from both players there but Briggs is just so important to their structure and if he's not not at least negating or at least splitting those contests with Grundy it's going to be Nyon impossible for the the Giants in my eyes all right a tip from you I'm confident on the swans as weird as that sounds that in this particular game yeah if that was your dead certainty that's what you would I would if you forc me to make it a dead certainty I would say this swans yes that's the one that I'm most 5050 about lloy I think they've been the best side all year and win at the scg I'm going to say the Giants I reckon they're pretty confident all right the gabber Saturday night an elimination final it is the Brisbane Lions and Carlton we know what happened back in opening round the blue storming back to win by a point and Harry McKai was the hero there but let's take a look at the Lions and their biggest strength no excuses for the Brisbane Lions I want to put up my a graders who have a grade Talent I'm saying they don't perform all the time like a greaters and Eric hitwood is one of those players that doesn't always get it done and either does Zack Bailey this year but these guys to me are all all the AUST strali players throughout their career they should be based on their talent and it's more than half their side who I believe are a grade players and it's just that the connection that they lack so this is good connection where it's team first so they're willing to Care and Share for each other amongst his talent with Carlton having to bring in so many players who are unsettled have to get their mojo back of playing together they shouldn't be losing this to Brisbane lines in my opinion based on what they have there at the gab they going put behind them don't they the fact they've missed out on a Double's chance with those losses in rounds uh or the the second last and third last matches but I'm with you that they have got no reason to lose this game unless they can't kick goals which has been an issue for them as we know the last month or so an ex factor for the Lions Damon yeah well one of these names was on Lord's list of a graders in cam Raina and the other one is ky lman I love what he's done he he's brought an energy to this team kyom and when they needed it at the start of the year when they were going badly contagious is it is yeah and look some people may say that he's he's a bit uh selfish at times I like that about him in fact I think there should be more of it and Raina we have seen step up this year in K moment that was the that was still the best game of the homeo season in my eyes that goal he just kicked there against the swans there at the gab on a really hot day and he he did it again in in quick succession so they're the two that to me have to perform not just in this first week and if they get through beyond that lyy you touted it but Carlton could make up to eight changes which is so incredible for this elimination final Charlie kerno and Harry McKai are definitely coming back into the side Sam docky incredible to think that after 183 days after doing his ACL he could be walking out there on the footy field Tom D coning Martin and chera maybe less likely mcgo and Williams I think are more likely to come into this side how disruptive is it though bringing in say eight changes it's disruptive uh in terms of you probably getting your balance right that's the biggest question for Michael Voss all the names are great on paper but you got to get your balance right for who suits what role but most of those will play you'd think okay and the strength for Carlton the strength is the big boys but it's also can be a weakness because they just bomit to the big boys so they got to be careful that but why I think it's a strength for Carlton is I'm really worried about Joyce as the number to and even if he doesn't play it's probably pay who comes in who's been underdone so here are the big boys that the aerial skills are there for everyone to see um they can't you know compete with each other they got to get separation I'd even send Kemp to Andrews and play like hosin Ali did on Harris Andrews see if you can upset him as well so if you'd upset Andrew Frampton roll final they they two could be pressure do you think on Charlie kerno given his disappointing final Series last year I mean he is coming off an injury yeah absolutely that I mean again it's hard to talk about and focus in that regard but he let them down last year it's on his head it has been his all year the only way to change it is to then get back to that same situation and perform and that's what's on his head this week so you're looking outside of Charlie and Harry for your X Factor that you got look there season the blues went to mess when Tom ding went down and if he's near fit just getting back in because it was this style of play which set this their season up before it fell away again with injuries and an unavailability and he was one of those players in that category but he's so important to them he's an established AFL gun rman and if if he's right to go just unleash him and just give him license to to roam does pit net play if he plays no I wouldn't no because the numbers to me early in the season when they were going well said that that didn't work all right tip sloy who the Lions for me yeah lions for me too I really want to tip the blues but I think it's going to be the Lions just okay uh trade talk we are at that time of year the silly season is upon us Doo and plenty of clubs need to make a crypto.com bold call what have you got for us was a really bold call to be made on Jake Stringer that the the bombers themselves have made a bold call of sorts already by telling him to go and explore the market because they're only going to offer him one year and I agree with that by the way I think he let them down late in the season with inaccuracy and and weight issu new that that were not acceptable to the club so as line B witha he goes back to the bombers and and I can tell you that a club of interest um for his Services is the Sydney Swans who obviously are about to Embark upon a final Series where they start in Pole Position number one on the ladder but their forward line is a concern and there's a a conversation to be had once this season is complete about whether he does fit that mix would you be letting him go or keeping him uh well he's 40 odd goals he's kicked and you just can't find those players to off it wouldn't be the worst thing if he goes and I'm sure they'll be find without him but for a slide like the swans it could be the difference again next year and he could kick 50 goals up there at the scg he's already been once before in his career a a big name player in the trade period that he's going to be talked about uh again in this trade period well someone who has been talked about adium is Christian Peta and The Saga and the drama around this has continued but over the weekend there was a statement Doo that basically said I am committed to the Melbourne football club no trade what are you thinking an exclusive statement by the Club managed to track down track having not been able to speak to him and have any correspondence with him look it's just been a mess I I still feel there could be an element of holding pattern on this until we get to the the official part of the the season when you can transact with players and I know that that's only a long shot now given the strength of statement yesterday but the growing up that needs to be done by Christian petraka and other people around him and people at the Melbourne footy Club to realize how problematic their operations are with their culture which is at a messy stage at the moment is is something that if they don't take he out of this whole experience lto the whole exercise has been a waste and and it's been an embarrassing waste to this point yeah that's what I'd use the word embarr it's been embarrassing for everyone like it's been embarrassing for Melbourne it's been embarrassing for Christian uh even his management I just think it hasn't been handled well at all uh that's what I'd say it's been a messy situation an embarrassing situation for for all of them Dam do you think it's just an about face because you know it seems like they're not going to be able to get a trade done I mean Carlton was thrown in there freem metal has the early picks but not keen on moving into State and somehow you got to go back and repair with your teammates so is that part of it well again freem Mano doesn't fit the brand petraia and this is his phrase not anyone else is doing that he's used the word brand himself about where he saw himself and how it didn't align with what Melbourne was doing to him as a brand so he nominated Carlton nominated Collingwood they're the two big brands at the moment that he wants to go to no interest in going to Richmond at the moment they're a big brand but they're not a good club at the moment so he limited himself and those clubs just cannot even open conversations of any nature meaning because of the currency required to get him back I'm not even talking Financial there just the draft pick currency and player Trade Currency so now it blew up in his face this whole Saga and I just hope that he has finally got a chance to see reality through the whole thing because I don't think he's had a lot of that and I I know that that he's been seriously traumatized by the the physical and mental toll on that King's birthday situation which I always factor into the considerations but he's tried to leave his club and he wasn't able to well I think we'll still be talking about this uh once the Grand Final is over and trade period actually officially kicks off thank you so much for watching access all erors we'll be back again next Monday enjoy finals footy want to get all the latest footy news in one hit from injuries to breaking news the latest from the coaches the footy feed team has you covered watch it now on afl.com.au and the AFL Live app or wherever you get your podcast