BEST NFL WEEK 1 BETS | UNDERDOG FANTASY | PRIZEPICKS | SLEEPER | NFL WEEK 1 PICKS 2024

NFL week one is finally here and in this video I'll be sharing my daily fantasy and sports sping picks and plays for Underdog fantasy prize picks and sleeper I'll be using two tools in this video the first one is outlier where we're going to try to find Trends and find some really strong trends that back up some of these plays on Underdog fantasy and prize picks and the second approach is the traditional positive EV approach you know I use DG fantasy.com to try to find the best discounts on the board on these prop websites compared to all the other major sports books if you're not in my Discord yet it is free to join the link is in the description below and also in the pin comment below I have a bunch of resources in there for betting education I post all my plays in there there's two other cappers who post free plays every single day in there as well and it's a completely open Community it's not like any other sports Spring Discord that you've been in before it's really for you guys it's really for your benefit and I just want to share my knowledge and share as much knowledge as possible with you guys because we all just have the same goal here we all want to make money at the end of the day and honestly I don't want to take cash out of your pocket I want you guys to have all the resources so you can start winning more bets this NFL season now let's head over to Underdog fantasy see what promos they got for us they have a couple discounts in the board with Harrison Jefferson and chimra I have to make those plays today because it is Wednesday and there is an 18 hour timer on it so I'll make a play on that and post that in the Discord server and then we have the Travis Kelce gimme pick I will also make a play on that and post that in the Discord as well um so that's why the Discord is the best place to be because that's where you'll see all of my plays right when I make them and if I'm using a positive EV approach and trying to get ahead of some line movement that's the place where you're going to be able to jump on the lines uh before they move just like I do so I already made a couple plays on Underdog fantasy and shared uh in the Discord server so the first one I made this was a positive EV play on rushing attempts um all these lines might not be there by the time you watch this video but if they are I would jump on them because there's some really good values so Aaron Jones higher than 12 and a half rushing attempts Tyler aler lower than eight rushing attempts and Isaiah check out hired in 14 and a half rushing attempts I Ed the tool on DG fantasy.com to find these plays so I filtered by NFL and we look at the top of the list here you see Tyler aler under eight Rush attempts his line is 7 and a half and six and a half on all the other sports books so it's a misprice by Underdog fantasy that line will drop to seven and a half at some point today the second play I had was Aaron Jones over in 12 and a half Rush attempts same scenario you see it's 13 and a half on FanDuel and some of the other books and then juice to the over on 12 and a half on DraftKings and uh B MGM so that's where we're getting the value on Aaron Jones and then I actually found Isaiah Pacho rushing attempts on outlier so I combined both strategies to make this play Isaiah Pacho went over 14 and a half rushing attempts in nine out of his last 10 games if you look at the full season last year it was 13 out of 18 early in the year they didn't use him as much that does concern me just a bit but if Kansas City's offense is going to be similar to last year's which I assume it would be under Andy Reid and the same offense of coordinator and everything they're going to be riding Isaiah Pacho uh to the Grind so I'm hoping for at least 15 rushing attempts for Pacho to go with that nine out of last 10 Trend which includes a lot of the playoffs as well so if we're gonna if I'm going to go through these I'm probably going to go through outlier first and try to find some props for us with outlier but I do want to share one more play before we go down like the main scre on outlier and see like all the plays are out there so I made one other play that I posted in Discord and on Twitter yesterday so we did ran Smith lower than 5 and a half tackles CJ shroud lower than 0er and a half interceptions and Nick Bolton lower than 5 and a half solo tackle tackles how I found this play so I went over to outlier and went to the props right and so I set a filter for my my books which are prize picks and Underdog fantasy and then I filtered the odds for minus 120 oops minus 120 to minus 115 so by doing that it eliminates all the alternate lines that might be out there for Underdog fantasy and priz picks and it just focuses on the main ones you can see there's a bunch here at the top for like Sam darnold you're going to see some Aaron Rogers too these are the props that you really need to look out for especially when you're looking at the trends because like all of us know Aaron Rogers only played a couple snaps last year so obviously he's going to be under on interceptions on a 100% on his games last year because he only played a couple snaps so you're going to have to look into you know look into a bit detail on each one of these especially if you're looking at just 100% for last year like jacobe brassette he did not start pretty much any games last year he had play he only played in three of them you know and he only threw these many pass attempts as a backup so like you know it you have to definitely be careful when looking at these for NFL as we get later on to the season outlier becomes even stronger when you're looking at like the last five and last 10 because it mainly focuses on the current year but how I found these few plays here so Nick Bolton under five and a half tackles you see it was nine out of the last 10 games he had five or less if you look at the full season last year he only played 12 games 11 out of 12 he had five or less tackles he only had one game over nine and also in his last match up with Baltimore he ended up with three tackles so that's how I ended up on Nick Bolton under five and a half solo tackles ran Smith very similar Trend you know last 10 games nine out of the last 10 he had five or less tackles so we're going to go with the under there including the last five as well looking at the head tohe head with Kansas City he ended up with five back on January 28th and then the full season last year he actually had a strong start of the season so that slightly concerns me with this play a bit but as you can see as we got to the second half of the Season it was just all five or less so I'm hoping that hoping that Trend continues into early this season especially with the match up against the chiefs with being you know he was under on that as well so that's where I like Wan Smith and then if I scroll down a bit more I'd have to probably do it by the 2023 number maybe or maybe last 10 um where are you I'm looking for CJ stad but I can't find him just by scrolling here here he is but if if I am struggling to find him I could always go up top and search you know for the players filter and type in Stroud and filter for Stroud then it shows me all of CJ Stout's props so if there is a player that you're interested in and want to see like any Trends or if you want to make a bet on a player just filter this and it shows you all of the trends for the player and then when you open up the profile you can select which prop you want to look at you know touchdowns first scor touchdowns passing yards passing touchdowns you know all of them so I'm going to be looking at interceptions right here and in his last honestly in the entire season last year he only threw a pick in three out of 17 games so that's 14 out of 17 where he did not throw an interception and I'm getting that line of under zero and a half interceptions on Underdog fantasy here so that's where I'm making this three playay parlay or three-play entry on Underdog fantasy with roquan Smith Nick Bolton and CJ Stroud I tend to stick to three pick non-insured on under Rock fantasy because that's where the most value is I would do a three pick non-insured occasionally a two-p pick uh play but generally you're not going to find the value where it's worth your time but if you want to do it I mean go right ahead you know at the end of the day it's your choice with how you do it I'm just sharing how I do it so I pretty much always do three pick non-insured I will do four pick five pick and six picks Flex plays because that's where the value is so if you're doing three picks or less do not Flex it just go straight you know for the Home Run All or Nothing But if you're doing four or more it's okay to do the flex play because you don't lose as much much value by flexing those plays you actually gain a bit of value on the four five and six Flex plays so that's the way to play an underdog fanty if you're playing on prize picks never do a Twan never do a three-man all never really never do a fourman always do five and six picks Flex plays those are the only ones where you're getting the most bang for your buck and getting the most value for your plays so that's how you should play this NFL season and honestly just all year Al together on those two websites so heading back over to outlier and the props and I'm going to see if I could find you know maybe a couple plays here for you guys on this video that I haven't posted already to kind of show you my process with how I found these plays so obviously I filtered by last 10 because uh I could do it by last year as well but you see there's going to be a lot of fluff in there like you know the Aaron Rogers the Sam Darnell a lot of backups uh a lot of injuries to Anthony Richardson so at the top here it's going to be really hard to find some of the top values but as you start going down here you see Keenan Allen it's a different role so I really don't want to jump on it because it's just a completely different role Jameson Williams his role hasn't really changed too much he did have a lot of hype coming out of camp but his line is still only at three receptions it might be a play that might be a look for on Underdog fantasy here I'm not sure if it's on priz pixes definitely on Underdog um for under three receptions you see 13 out of 15 games last year he pretty much ended with two catches almost every single game he had the two Spike weeks I think St Brown might have been out one of those weeks too so that might have been a boost for it so it's a pretty strong prop this jamus Williams under on the receptions based on last year the head-to-head he had two receptions against Rams back on January 14th so I think it's a pretty good play I would probably jump on it you are risking a push if he does get three catches but that's fine um so jamus William Williams under three receptions I'm actually going to make the play here um just so we go along with it with you guys and show you I'm not really fluffing you so let's see Williams Jam Williams under three receptions going back to outlier here if we want we could go to the insights tab on the top and the insights kind of shows us actually a bunch of Trends as well so if you filter it correctly you know filter your sports books and then filter for the odds on the sports books and scroll down like Moody he only had uh you know he has failed to exceed one and a half made field goals and four of his last five games at home so you'll see trends like that uh when you're looking through the insights you know Kiren Williams exceeded 13 and a half yards in seven ads less games on his longest rush so a lot of value out there that you could find by just looking in the insights and tailing those blindly I like to try to find things myself but hey there's nothing wrong with tailing these insights blindly especially once you get a larger sample size like once we're in like maybe like week six or like week five you see some trends that are going in the right direction for you this current season last season a little tough because you know the roles change and things like that so going to keep going down our list here like Chase Brown you know different role Christian Kirk you know Ridley's gone so not Ridley um what's his what's yeah it's Ridley Ridley's gone so um different role Herbert different role it's hard to find players in the same role as last year so that's why I like the CJ stoud was a nice play there um Swift with a different team we could go with the Bryce young over on the passing attempts um probably not a bad look here let's see how it was so like last last year he actually had over on the passing attempts and 13 out of the last out of his 16 games I think it's a pretty strong prop obviously the sports books you know juicing it slightly to the under so that's why I said this isn't really a positive EV approach it's more of a statistical based approach but you know if Carolina's going to improve uh and if they're going to you know keep losing these games early on and maybe start battling some comebacks like if New Orleans gets an early lead st's going to be passing the ball a lot so I'm going to go with this over 30 and a half passing attempts on CJ I mean Cesar shoud uh Bryce young sorry we're going to go Bryce young we're going to go over on the passing attempts where are you here you are that's a season long prop don't take the season ones there's not much value in those um so head back to the prop screen here let's go to Underdog fantasy see or DG fantasy see if there's any props that are popping for us for yards or something um Josh Allen under Pass Plus rushing yards two the 8 and a half it should be a little bit lower on Underdog fantasy so that's where the value lies on him so I'm going to add Josh Allen under two and a half 288 and a half Pass Plus rushing yards so 280 and a half Pass Plus rushing yards that's a three pick non-insured entry honestly maybe I'll just keep going and make this a six pick for you guys so I give you more picks in this video so going with DG fantasy for more uh Deshawn Watson under on the pass attempts decent decent prop but nothing special Mark Andrews under under the reception same thing it's decent but not amazing but I'll probably take it because there is some good value on it um so we're going to go Mark Andrews under four and a half receptions and you know what maybe I'll combine this with one of the discounts so we're going to go higher than you can honestly you can go any with them it really doesn't matter which one you take I'm gonna take Justin Jefferson just because the guy's a beast um I know it's Sam darnold throwing him the ball but he'll catch it no matter what this is five plays I need a six tier where am I going to find the sixth maybe we'll use the insights tab maybe I'll go with um maybe the Jake Moody field goals or maybe the Debo Samuel failing to exceed 49 and a half receiving yards in six out of his last seven games I'm not sure if that's on Underdog but it's certainly on prize pick so let's see if it's there so Debo it is 46 and a half on Underdog so you're getting some positive EV value on prize picks with Debo Samuel so um The Moody field goals looks fine let's see KY William with the longest Rush maybe not a bad idea against Detroit's uh defense they're usually a a pass funnel though but um KY Williams succeeded 59 and a half rushing yards in eight straight games let me look at his profile really quick so we'll click in here it you shows the matchup between the Rams and the Lions if we go down and try to find uh I'm still learning how to navigate this site a bit there is somewhere where I can get the Kiren Williams directly from here I just need to find it maybe I can't directly from the screen maybe I can um do match up yeah maybe I can't I thought I can but I'll I'll go back on this and I'll try to find it for you and I'll share it in the next video when I find it so anyways let's just go back to our props here we will look at Kiren Williams we'll filter for him we'll apply it and let's see so last year 69% of games H over on the rushing attempts and the rush and the rush and receiving yards same thing with the rushing yards over 509 and a half but he was on nine out of his last 10 um obviously Blake corum's going to be in there and he will be a factor but I mean look at these numbers for Williams you know his lowest was 53 so even that was pretty close pretty much blew 59 and a half out of the water on almost every game last year don't talk about the early part of the year his role was a bit different than he took over as the Workhorse so I'm gonna go with the Kyon Williams over 59 and a half rushing yards on this play come on Williams there so many Williams we got two Williams on this play here so it's actually up to 60 and a half but honestly I'm still going to take that line um there is value in it because obviously he was crushing that number last year so that is our six pick flex play you see IIs 10 bucks that's the max I'm using the discount if it wins 250 bucks if you go five out a six it's $26 so um it's really just a solid play they cannot detect my location which is always an issue with my computer let me try to place it again if it doesn't work I'll just have to do something in the back end there we go so you see 10 bucks to win 250 Williams lower on receptions Bryce young higher on pass attempts Josh Allen lower on the pass and rush yards Mark Andrews lower on receptions Jefferson higher on the discount and Kiren Williams higher on the rushing yards a lot of these plays also translate over to priz picks as well so that's why I tried to do some overlap with you guys but if you want to sign up for outlier you can do a 7-Day free trial the link to join is in the pin comment below so if you want to give it a shot try to find some trends of your own that is a free way to do it and it's a pretty affordable website DG fantasy is not a free website it's pretty expensive actually but if you want 25% off use code lay the house RM when you sign up hopefully I see you guys in the Discord posting some plays throughout the week and the rest of the weekend as well so we can all cash in together on the NFL Week 1 I appreciate you guys sticking around to the end of this video drop a like if you enjoyed it subscribe to the channel and best of luck on your plays this week guys