NFL Week 1 2024 WAY TOO EARLY Picks and Preview

NFL week one we now know the matchups for Thursday Night Football the kickoff game Chiefs Ravens Sunday Night Football Matthew Stafford versus the Lions Monday Night Football the Jets and Aaron Rodgers versus the San Francisco 49ers there's a lot more Marquee matchups Packers Eagles on the schedule week one is always that hype weak what will each team actually look like all this offseason noise all this analysis but what will they bring to the field in this video it will be a very early look at week one my breakdown for each game my pick for each game straight up and vers versus the spread I'll be giving my advice on whether I really would bet a game right now maybe wait a little bit closer to the regular season how I feel about each game which games I feel strongest about which games I don't really know which team is going to win or don't really have a good feeling either way I'm going to break down each matchup as I would right before week one actually kicks off we're just going to do it in May then we're going to see how these thoughts translate over the course of the summer into NFL Week 1 how these lines move and how the narratives of all of these teams change because we know it always does if that sounds good don't forget to gron spike the like button guys really helps my channel and other people find this Channel and if you're enjoying this content subscribe man this is the place to be for NFL offseason content you will not get a more honest opinion out there on YouTube and one that covers all 32 teams unlike any other channel and I'm not just patting myself on the back if you know the blv you know that's how it goes and right here we're going to discuss all 32 teams and whether your favorite team will win or lose in week one let's go man let's begin with the kickoff game the Kansas City Chiefs at home raising the banner their third Championship with Patrick momes and Andy Reid versus the Baltimore Ravens Chiefs are favored by two and a half at home at Arrowhead last year they lost and I think that's going to be a narrative going into this game the fact that the Chiefs did lose the opener last year cuz typically I would say just from experience watching football especially being a Patriots fan and having seen my team play in this game a lot usually the Super Bowl champs are super hyped the energy is unmatched the banner being raised it's like a celebration of the Super Bowl champ and typically the Champs no matter what they will become for the rest of the year look great in the opener that's usually how it goes even the teams that decline still look really good in that first game at least from my experience but the Chiefs did lose last year but I think people will get lost in that and really not the fact that Chris Jones and Travis Kelce didn't play and the lions were a good team as we know and without two of your three best players it's kind of hard to win a big game now will they win this big game I think how I should be breaking this down is by talking about each team and where they're at right now cuz if this was the Ravens team from the AFC Championship playing this Chiefs team in week one of the regular season I think I might pick the Ravens but this is not the same Ravens team A lot of people are looking at the Ravens and saying they're no doubt the AFC North champ camps they're no doubt an AFC playoff team I still probably think they are that for sure with Lamar Jackson Harbaugh the solid roster they do have and Foundation they do have but this is not the same team first of all they've lost arguably the best offensive coordinator in the entire sport he's now the head coach of the Seattle Seahawks so that's first and foremost they've lost some pretty big pieces on that defense including their interception leader Gino Stone at safety Pat Queen at linebacker the area of strength for Baltimore in this defense the middle of the field now there is hope that younger players will step up at the edge position at linebacker at corner but we don't know what those players will be their defense probably will be very good but not quite as good as it was due to the play caller loss a couple of key fixtures last season and maybe a lack of pass rush especially without that scheme really aiding it to success okay the offense a lot of questions on the offensive line a lot of new pieces to the offensive line the only real carryover they have is left tackle and Center otherwise left guard Right Guard and right tackle will all be new in week one now Mark Andrews will be back and they did add Derrick Henry to help their back field Z flowers could be a better player in year two and Lamar is Lamar but they do have new pieces on the defense on the offensive line and it's going to be intriguing to see how that second year of growth within this offensive scheme takes place for the Chiefs they pretty much have the same team I think what you have to worry about with the Chiefs is on defense the loss of leria Sneed and how that may impact their secondary and the way that they play the Ravens cuz last year in the AFC Championship they pretty much just relied on their secondary to play Man coverage and they stacked the box to stop the run therefore forcing the Ravens to be so intimidated that they didn't even run the ball and then on the other side left tackle is a serious question mark especially with the recent off the- field news Rashid rice probably won't be in this game how good will worthy be right out of Texas Maris Brown he'll be looking for chemistry with Patrick Mahomes early and the offensive line is largely the same Kelsey will be there but again another year older another offseason another you know traveling around with Taylor Swift how's that going to impact his football game I don't know just a weird question to ask but when I look at it I do lean Chiefs to win I do lean Chiefs to cover because of the experience of this game uh because of the energy in Arrowhead the arrowhead Advantage especially with the lit atmosphere that is the kickoff game with all their fans there going to be loud it's going to be Rowdy and it's going to be a lot for the Ravens to overcome with a new offensive line having to deal with the noise of Arrowhead and having to deal with a very good defense and then also the new off or defense of Coach the new defensive play caller dealing with new defensive pieces as well having to go toe-to-toe with Andy Reid with some rest in like a long period to prepare for this game to look at the championship game and see what they did well and see what they could really do better Patrick momes in this game against a rookie play calling defensive coordinator along with some pieces that might not have the same Rapport so this is a really tough game for the Ravens I think for them to win they have to have huge games from derck Henry Mark Andrews and maybe even Z flowers once again defensively they have to keep the Chiefs probably to under 21 24 points I think the winner gets to 24 and I think probably the Chiefs win by like four points here something like that I would say that they cover the two and a half if I was a betting man which I am and I will say right now I would take the Chiefs under a field goal the Friday game is the game in Brazil it's the Philadelphia Eagles and the Green Bay Packers the Eagles are minus one and a half this is tricky and right now I would advise to to probably not bet this game there's just a lot that we don't know about this game first of all a lot of new pieces for Philadelphia new offensive coordinator new defensive coordinator how will their offense look Sequon Barkley now involved a lot of new pieces on the defense including multiple linebackers including an edge rusher that will start including safety corner like a lot of new pieces for the Eagles on both sides no Jason Kelsey how that impact the line and the checks and the balances at the line right so the Eagles have a lot of new things this is also in a neutral site I would probably think the Packers would be more popular but this is just a random thought Jordan love in year 2 if anything the Packers have more chemistry than the eagles which would slightly make me lean towards the Packers but the Eagles are more talented of a roster on paper how long will it take for them to really mold and mesh though right Josh Jacobs is new to the Packers but otherwise they have very much the same offensive line wide receiving core quarterback tight ends play caller they have one new offensive lineman from the draft but that's about it defensively a lot of the same pieces Xavier mckin enters the fold in the secondary a couple new rookies as well a new defensive quar coordinator but again like compared to the Eagles not a lot that is new especially with the head coach and the quarterback combo and that whole thing so this could go either way I I would advise not to bet this or pick this until we have more information I I like that the Packers have more inherent chemistry and familiarity I do think that the Eagles will struggle with the Packers speed in their offense and their run game and their ability to attack the Eagles undermanned linebacking position but I would also say that the Eagles should be able to dictate on their offensive side so if anything I'd be looking to maybe bet an over of some type but something in me right now wants to take the pack I might have even taken the Eagles when I predicted every game of the 2024 NFL season but that's how much I'm kind of back and forth in 50/50 with this game so yeah Eagles are slated as the home team but that doesn't really matter it's in Brazil so Al Leen Packers the Pittsburgh Steelers at the Atlanta Falcons Atlanta minus three I think I like Pittsburgh here with the points I'm not sure they would win but getting a field goal against a quarterback that's coming off a torn Achilles and when you're getting the significantly better defense the significantly better pass rush and you're getting a Revenge spot with Arthur Smith going to Atlanta and the knowledge that he has of the Personnel the knowledge that he has of the offense the defense the building like the whole Foundation that's a huge Advantage all off season right going through that with Arthur Smith now Russell Wilson is also experienced so I'm not too concerned that he'll be out of shape here cousins is having to also learn a new offense as well as Russ the Steelers have enough weapons to move the football on Atlanta especially considering the new offensive line and the Run game that they might offer and defensively they have the significantly better front seven significantly better pass rush and significantly more proven coach in Mike Tomlin so I think Mike Tomlin has his team ready I think they probably win this game but I wouldn't be shocked if Kirk Cousins came out here and looked great and and led the Falcons to a late Victory but either way this could be a push right like a 24-21 for Atlanta and you lose but it it ends up being a push so I would lean towards the Steelers the New England Patriots at the Cincinnati Bengals this is I think the biggest spread of the week the Bengals are favored by nine at home in week one this is quite simply like foundational advice for betting the NFL in week one nine points is too many points for week one considering that the Bengals Joe burrow is not played in a long time he's coming off of a significant surgery and he will have a full offseason to operate and work and get better but that's still a huge question when you're facing one of the best defenses in the NFL in the New England Patriots a defense that did give burrow a tough time in their match up a couple years ago when burrow was healthy and I think they made that game pretty close if I recall I remember a Marcus Jones pick six in that game the Patriots pass rush could be you know pretty impactful and a handful for the Bangals offensive line but the one area of concern for New England is definitely their offense that being said what will the Bengals really know about this offense other than the fact that it's probably familiar given that a lot of this is going to come from Cleveland the offensive play caller coming from Cleveland jacobe played in Cleveland right probably some of their run scheme will be similar to Cleveland their play actions things of that nature but Cleveland has been one of those teams that has actually beaten the Bengals quite often mostly because of their defense but still their offense has been a part of it so you kind of wonder how much that scheme May translate to success I do think the Patriots could run the ball on the Bengals which could set up some shot plays and some success for jacobe brassett in this opener he's a proven quarterback he's played a ton of NFL games it's not like the Patriots have a ton of turnover on offense either so they're going to have a lot of players that know you know just like have played with each other and things like that so I think this game could be closer than nine points for sure that's just too many points I I would definitely lean towards the Bengals though they have the better quarterback they have the better offense and ultimately at the end of the day they're also at home I don't think that burrow and the Bengals coming into this year with the chip on the shoulder that they have will lose this game but I definitely think it could be close the Houston Texans at the Indianapolis Colts Texans are favored by one and a half I would take the Texans here to cover and to win it's a little tricky because it's a divisional game in the AFC South on the road and the Texans are going to have a lot of hype but I don't think this number justifies the hype and the difference between the Texans and the Colts I think the Texans should be field goal plus favorites over the Colts especially on a neutral but this isn't on a neutral but you understand what I'm saying I think the biggest Factor here for me is that Anthony Richardson has barely played in his NFL career and yeah there's at least kind of some sort of element of surprise when it comes to Anthony Richardson and what Shane Sten could bring to this game against Deo Ryan's defense but demos Ryan's defense has been built through the front seven fast linebackers that can flow sideline to sideline a good pass rush and a good front seven that can track down Anthony Richardson in the Run game and can get after him in the pass game and speed up his processing they also won't be overwhelmed by the Colts receiving Corp I don't think on the other side like the Texans could be the most potent and best offense in football CJ strad was the Rookie of the Year and one of the best quarterbacks in football last year the offensive line is solid enough and that might be the biggest concern in week one but they should be healthy at least Joe Mixon is there a proven NFL running back Stefon Diggs Nico Collins tank Dell will be back Dalton Schultz they've got a lot of weapons to attack a very weak secondary in Indie this is a good matchup for the Texans overall especially considering Richardson's lack of experience so I have to go with the Texans here the Carolina Panthers at the New Orleans Saints I like the Saints although I wouldn't be shocked if the Panthers covered so I'm going to take the four and a half I think that the Panthers offensive line should be a lot better it is much more talented they signed multiple offensive linemen including two offensive guards to huge money Robert hunt being the Marquee name Damen Lewis out of Seattle but Robert hunt out of Miami got a $100 million to protect Bryce young I do think that Dave Canales will give Bryce young a healthy dose of the Run game to help support him as well as a lot of play action a lot of movement of the pocket and making life easy on Bryce young in his early games this season Deontay Johnson should drastically change their receiving core along with also adding a first round pick at the receiving core and the receiver position this team should be a lot more explosive a lot more fun on offense and the Saints will have to deal with that I also think the Saints don't have an overwhelming pass rush but it is a difficult place to play in New Orleans and the super doome and the and the noise especially the first game of the season the defense of the Panthers is solid overall they don't have a lot of Superstars but the Saints offense is also not great I mean if JC horn is healthy you would think that he would match up with Chris ol lave and overall you know the Panthers don't have a bad matchup with this offense so I think that this game could be pretty close the Panthers should be improved and hungry to prove that they're better and the Saints they just feel very mid to me and almost not worth backing at this price early in the NFL season until I find out more about their team the Dallas Cowboys at the Cleveland Browns Dallas is minus one and a half I would go with Cleveland and I would also take Cleveland obviously to cover that being the stronger pick but the Browns defense is tough and although you know Dallas was the better team last year I think the majority of people would say Cleveland's defense was unbelievable and their pass rush could provide Dallas's new offensive line with a rookie left tackle multiple New pieces including probably a rookie Center as well that could be a huge issue against one of the best D lines one of the most loaded and Deep D lines in football and the Browns can cover they've got good Corners led by Denzel Ward Schwarz will come after you and has definitely had experience playing Dak so that matters on the other side Cleveland has a lot of Talent on offense and the number one identity that they have they're going to try to keep keep deshun Watson clean probably not rely on him to win this game and they're going to probably throw a lot of screens run the ball a lot get the ball to nooku and Cooper and the Run game with Nick chub who will be back for this game is probably going to be the edge that I think the Browns have the Cowboys run defense is not great they're going through a new scheme change under Zimmer from Quinn to Zimmer and I wonder how that will look so Cleveland has more Rapport from a coaching standpoint a very familiar roster from last year and overall one of the more talented rosters in football I think they are more talented than the Cowboys so I I'll take Dallas to lose Dak is the better quarterback here which scares me but I think Cleveland is the better team the Jacksonville Jags at the Miami Dolphins I'll take Jacksonville plus three and a half I slightly lean towards Miami to win the game this one's tricky what I do like about Jacksonville is the fact that they're a Florida team playing in Miami and usually that's like the Patriots the bills they give like these East Coast cold weather teams this game early in the year and it's just really hard to win in that game because they're not used to the weather or the humidity but Jacksonville will be used to it you know especially in Jacksonville so that's not really going to be a huge disadvantage outside of the normal home field advantage I think Jacksonville has the superior offensive and defensive line I think they have the more talented quarterback and they do have a proven winning coach I think that Jacksonville is a little bit slept on and Miami is a little bit overrated entering this year especially when you consider Miami could be without both their top Edge rushers for this game Bradley chub as well as Jaylen Phillips had significant injuries late in the NFL calendar last year Tyreek Hill will be a tough cover obviously Miami has a lot of weapons and Mike McDaniel with a full off season is really tough to bet against but I would take Jacksonville I think these two teams are a coin flip type of game so I would take Jacksonville plus the points Miami to win because they're at home I I think that they've got overall especially with Christian Kirk coming off a sign significant injury maybe they make one or two more plays with their Playmakers than Jacksonville does the Vikings at the New York Giants Minnesota minus 2 and a half this was kind of surprising when I first saw it the Giants are obviously at home and I don't really see either these teams being great I don't see either of these teams being bad right so two and a half on the road that kind of signaled to me that Vegas feels like the Vikings are you know pretty significantly better than the Giants you know not overwhelmingly but good enough to be like two and a half near a field goal favorite over the Giants on the road man fundamentals tell me to take the Giants with the points here especially when you think back to the Giants beat the Vikings in the playoffs a couple years ago and that coaching matchup still does somewhat exist some of the Personnel still exists and the Giants could take this league by storm a little bit with Malik neighbors an improved offensive line Daniel Jones healthy and some new pieces up front in the front seven that definitely would scare me on the road if I'm the Vikings against you know Sam darnold be you know that's JJ McCarthy a rookie if it's JJ McCarthy I'm certainly going with the Giants here if it's Sam darnold I may be thinking twice because at least he has experience but fundamentals tell me to take the Giants I do think the Vikings are the better team and I do think the one Edge they truly do have two edges their receiving core is significantly better than the giant secondary and Brian flores's scheme and pressure system against the Giants new offensive line and Daniel Jones could provide some problems but fundamentals would say take the home team here I don't know the Denver Broncos at the Seattle Seahawks Seattle minus 4 a half I'm going to go with Seattle to win Seattle to cover although that's a tricky number at four and a half I I do think they would win by six or seven I think the big thing for me is that Denver with a new center right um one that signed a nice contract with Tennessee and a new quarterback probably a rookie quarterback having to play the 12th man in week one in Seattle it is going to be loud it is going to be noisy it is going to be lit and to play Seattle there that's just a really tough game especially when you are the less talented team and Seattle has better weapons than you Seattle is more explosive than you and and Seattle will be unveiling a new defensive scheme that Mike McDonald is going to bring it in in week one I could see some turnovers especially if it's the rookie playing quarterback here so yeah I like Seattle there to win and cover the Raiders at the chargers chargers favored by three and a half I'd have to take the Raiders plus three and a half but I will lean towards the Chargers to win the game I think that Harbaugh will install some culture some confidence some Swagger entering week one and certainly some toughness they're going to need it against this Raiders team led by Antonio Pierce who wants to smack everybody in the face and just wreck them right they want to play physical down and dirty football black and blue football but they will have new pieces on on the offensive line how will Brock Bowers look early in this season and how will they utilize him which quarterback will the Raiders be running with at least for the Chargers you know it's Herbert at least you know you've got a solid offensive line you do have new systems on offense and defense but you got some Ballers on defense that can make a difference like the former Raider khil Mack so I like the Chargers to win I just have more certainty about what they'll be but the Raiders certainly will not go away and the Chargers are not really especially when you can consider the game's in LA and it's supposed to be a charger home game but La is the city of the Raiders and never forget that so this is not a home game for the Chargers let's be let's be certain about that and then also the Chargers are not talented enough I think the Raiders are pretty talented Devonte Adams jacobe Myers Brock Bowers pretty good offensive line led by Colton Miller a defense that has now Crosby and Wilkins up front so they're not talented enough especially receiver tight end skill positions for me to lay three in the hook the Tennessee Titans at the Chicago Bears I'm going to take Tennessee plus 4 and a half absolutely love that I lean Chicago but I do think that Chicago is going to have a tough time with the Titans I think the Titans could beat the Bears I like how Tennessee matches up with the Bears I think their secondary is one of the few when you talk about sne azier mccre to be able to match up with Allen adun and more I also think that Caleb could be a hint nervous and a little bit overzealous uh in his opening game and maybe be a little bit forcy with the football and try to do too much I think the offensive line of Chicago is definitely going to be shaky as well as Tennesse will Levis is a complete wild card but he will go out there and sling it and I like that in an underdog and they do have a couple difference makers in their front seven and Herold Landry Jeffrey Simmons so Chicago is at home Chicago probably has the better overall def defense Chicago probably has more Talent on offense but I think 4 and a half is way too much for an unproven quarterback an unproven team and Tennessee is a little bit underrated so four and a half is a good bet but with the the win or the loss I lean Chicago but I don't love it next up the Washington commanders at the Tampa Bay bucks bucks are favored by four I like the Bucks here to win to cover I think that the commanders are going to be a bit lost and a bit behind to start the season I do think that new coach Dan Quinn will motivate them we'll have them you know ready to rock in terms of attitude and motivation but I worry about the schemes on both sides with cliff kingsberry and Dan Quinn right away I worry about the Personnel I think the offensive line is pretty bad for Washington I think the secondary is up in the air I don't know the pass rush is I don't know um so there's a lot of aspects to Washington Jaden Daniels what is he going to be early I know that Baker can play I know that Tristan wors is a dog I know that the Bucks add added to their offensive line and have largely the same offensive line just maybe a bit better I know that they have Mike Evans Chris Godwin who's been there and done that and can move the chains I know Rashad white is good I know that their defense has a lot of uh chemistry Todd BS knows how to call a game and he's really good against mobile quarterbacks so I like this match up for Tampa here especially in week one against a rookie quarterback in an unproven team the Arizona Cardinals at the Buffalo Bills bills minus 7 I like the bills to win I'm not certain about cover this could be one of those teams in the Cardinals that's ready to roll right away I think that they don't have a lot of overwhelming Talent on defense but they'll certainly bring an intriguing game plan that I don't think a lot of teams will see coming last year they did a really good job out coaching teams on that side of the ball so I could see them kind of giving the bills a weird tough time early in the game that stalemates this game and makes it a little sluggish I could also see Kyler Murray making some plays and Marvin Harrison Jr Trey McBride making some plays and this could become a duel as well so I'll go bills to win but I'm actually going to take the seven points with the Cardinals it does feel like a tough trip for the Cardinals to go west to east right away and Josh Allen is always tough to beat but there's something about Kyler and this setting of week one and anything can happen and the Cardinals entering as an underdog that I really feel like seven is a lot Sunday Night Football the Rams at the Lions give me the Rams plus the three in the hook I think it could be a field goal game but give me the Lions to win I think the game will be nearly similar or almost identical to the game in the playoffs I think it's going to be a shootout back and forth ball possession you know not a game that enters 40 to 37 at the end of the day but it could be like 27 24 28 27 that type of game where back and forth ball possession going forward on Fourth Downs when needed running the ball throwing the ball and both offenses are just kind of dinking dunking and making their plays and moving the chains on third down and the defenses aren't really allowing big plays are trying to kind of keep them to the Red Zone and try to stuff them in the red zone and things like that um I think the lions are the better team at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football the the defense is really good against the run which I think will handle the Rams Run game a lot of this will be on the right shoulder of Matthew Stafford but the Lions have improved their secondary so that should help a little bit that being said it's a tough matchup for a guy like Carlton Davis and the lion secondary to play cup and NCA guys that play a lot inside the numbers um so I think that the Rams will find a way to move the ball I think the Lions will find a way to move the ball no Aaron Donald here who will step up in a big moment I think the lions are more capable of doing that especially at home with Eminem in attendance and the final game the New York Jets at the San Francisco 49ers minus 5 and a half for the ners I like the ners my gut is saying take the Jets with 5 and a half I don't really know why but that's what my gut says my brain sort of tells me take the ners because they'll probably win by a touchdown but my gut says ners to win Jets to cover the Jets defense and Robert Salah will be a tough grind for Brock pie and the Niners offense this is arguably the best defense in football it's one of them and they have very few weaknesses they can Rush the quarterback they've got a great secondary got good linebackers they've got the speed to match up with the ners it's going to be an intriguing game plan to see Shanahan in week one with all that he comes up with to play a defense that he knows very well it could go all wrong for the Jets though if Aaron roders is not Aaron Rodgers maybe he's healthy but he's just not making all the throws he's not moving that well and you know that he's getting a little rattled with the pressure that the ners could be bringing at this new offensive line for the Jets so a lot of concerns here for the Jets it's an awful schedule spot it's an awful awful matchup for them in week one it's probably the toughest game they'll play all year they have to play it week one with Aaron Rogers off an Achilles a new offensive line intact and really you know like the offense has never played together so and and the ners they've their offense has played all last year together like they're the same unit the defense there's a lot of the same so Shanahan's one of the best so this is going to be a really tough game for them I would take the Niners to win but I I slightly lean towards Jets to cover but I'm not sure about that one those are my picks for week number one very very early here in May thank you so much for watching if you enjoyed groon Spike the like button don't forget to subscribe for more guys peace