NFL Week 1 RAVENS vs CHIEFS | Prop Bets & Game Prediction

what's going on guys welcome back to the channel was out of town for a while in fact about a week's time so I'm back home back in the studio back getting you guys daily videos on both college and NFL content um of course today game one NFL season 2024 uh Ravens and Chiefs man it's a big one it's going to be a fun one to watch definitely excited and I brought back the winning picks the Whiteboard winning free picks that we did the entire duration of football season last year we had a lot of fun with that and I know all you guys don't bet on a level towards worth having premium or worth doing things on a more serious matter some people are just having fun and I think the Whiteboard winning free picks uh were at least fun for everybody so I'm going to bring them back I'm trying to uh apply you know my content to everybody out there so hopefully you guys appreciate that the space for college football will be updated tomorrow I'm going to be going over college football week two uh but guys Kansas City money line is the Whiteboard winning free pick of course I'm gonna go over in today's video why I think that is the right Play We got some player props to talk about uh and just the game in general we're going to break down some money splits pretty much go over this game in detail uh I don't think I don't think as of right now this one's going to make premium uh and that's why I'm going to go over this one in strong detail and give you guys the pick of uh Kansas City Chiefs on the money line like I said been out of town for about seven days still catching up on organization here I'm going to go ahead and update that uh bottom piece usually show you guys the banner with the records and everything that we did with baseball all summer long and we absolutely will continue that with football uh I just got to get catched up and redo the numbers and remake sure all the math is right so probably just after this weekend as a whole I'll go ahead and get all the banners and all the numbers updated for you guys to see my official record and how many units I'm up or down uh because I'm currently down after college football week one we'll have those records all updated after this weekend uh but hey I got to tell you guys if if if you're new to my channel if you're not familiar with the Dan rant Squad um just scroll scroll back through my videos man check out my YouTube videos last year if you want to see how well I did on both college and NFL uh it was a great year this year is going to be even better got off to a slow start lost quite a bit of money on uh on West Virginia okay and uh Florida State it was really two teams that took most of my money I think we have like a five and nine record or something I got to redo the numbers and and find out the units but we basically got whacked on two games not a big deal um yeah super excited for NFL week one uh it's going to be a doozy already sent out some picks to The Client List and uh we just keep cashing on baseball as well got back to baseball after not touching it for a while and we went two for two two winning days in a row I'll uh just for an example I'll put the text on the screen that went out to clients over the last two days uh the fourth and the third of uh of September so up over two and a half units 3 in one in MLB uh over the last 48 hours so got a little bit money back that we lost on college football week one I I'm not even stressed at the at the least man uh this is a long season you got to get the losses out of the way and uh as you build your sample size as the season progresses man we can hit some bangers and we're going to have four and five unit plays on the regular we got some this weekend I'm in absolutely uh zero panic mode in fact I would almost bet that by the time I update the records at the end of the weekend that both the NFL and college football will be in the profit so excited for that if you guys want my premium if you scroll back through my videos Last fall so you can really know how well I did over the course of an entire season and you're interested in my premium dance.net the link to my website is in the description you guys can also get on the soet platform uh it's not just me on there there's about 60 other pros and a lot of them kill it I'll include some screenshots for you guys in today's video uh of the recent leaderboard and how good people are doing uh these guys are sharp man there's a lot of serious serious professionals and guys that specialize in football like Deo um what up bro bro some of these guys that you might see on the Tik Tok platform again if you're interested in that those links are always in the description but we got a big game going on tonight we got this Thursday night Standalone game let's talk about it I'll go ahead and get something on the screen for you guys I'm going to pull up my picket profile we're going to look at some money splits for this game because this is a big one it's NFL week one game one and it's the only game going off tonight there's about four million dollars as I'm looking at this game already in terms of the total handle so make no mistake about it these books are pretty sharp um they're definitely going to adjust to the line so the money splits on a game like this I do think carry a pretty significant weight we can look at the money line in this one Kansas City Chiefs we're looking at about 53.5% of the tickets placed on this game uh but way more way more in terms of the money man almost 66% of the money on the money line line and that's why this line has moved I mean this thing was closer to a pick them or a spread of one and uh you know now we see this spread up around three um of course people that are betting the spread are taking Baltimore we see almost 60% of bets placed against the spread are on the Ravens uh which makes some sense here but I do think in a close game like this with a money line at only minus 150 as of right now uh I do think that most of the handle made up on this game is on the total and on the money line uh so I do think there's definitely some sharp action on the Chiefs as Square as that sounds um the Chiefs at home with a small number a reasonable price uh coming off back-to-back Super Bowls it's hard to believe that we could have any sharp action on the Chiefs but it is what it is there is a little bit of sharp money there same thing with the under it's just not as substantial 67.4% of bets placed on the total are coming in on the under and more of the the money 71.4% uh so we might see like an even 46 I don't think this will get to 45 A2 but this might drop down on all books to 46 46 and a half by kickoff so keep that in mind if you do like the under and you see the 47 right now I would definitely grab that now let's talk about the changes that actually happen with these teams uh in terms of a roster change the Ravens have the more dramatic change okay I think the offense uh is still going to be good it's going to be great for the Ravens here but the defense took quite a bit of a lick I I think it's going to be quite different with the linebackers the secondary adjustments no Clowny I mean Patrick Queen I mean some pretty big names uh that were on that roster for the Ravens man they're just not there and it's just not going to be the same uh in the same token man there's been some shakeups for the Chiefs as well but they keep the pieces that seem to keep the party rolling uh in Kansas City and I do think that's important here um I think we're going to see the Chiefs just look a little bit better the only argument that could go against that is just the fact that regular season Lamar Jackson is just so much better than playoff Lamar Jackson and playoff Patrick Mahomes is so much better than regular season Patrick momes so we got to take in mind man and we got to remember that Lamar Jackson in the regular season is always a top three top five candidate for the MVP and Patrick Mahomes and this team that just keeps winning all these games it's almost like they don't care they're almost just like we got to do what we got to do just so we make the playoffs and then boom we're going to flick a switch turn it on and be this invincible team that just has true magic and just is just hard to beat um so I am a little bit concerned back-to-back Super Bowls Super Bowl hangover uh just a team that is borderline getting into cocky territory in terms of their mentality how much grit and energy are they going to have here now in front of their home crowd I find it hard to believe they're not going to be fired up but man this team again just has such a huge goal of repeating a Super Bowl it's going to be hard not to find some flat spots whether it's this game or not just in general the regular season I don't think the Chiefs are quite going to be hitting the gas at 100% I think Baltimore with how their postseason ended and the fashion that it did how good Lamar Jackson is in the regular season and how good the offense still is obviously Mark Andrews kind of took the air out of that team late last year uh even though he came back late I think him being healthy uh a lot of these pieces I know Derrick Henry's there I'm not going to talk about Derek too much he's old guys Derrick Henry's past his prime is he going to be effective is he gonna get 50 60 yards on the ground yeah I think so uh but I I I just think Lamar Jackson and these pieces are still going to be solid I think they can move the ball speaking of moving the ball let's get into some player props here I think we got some good ones so I got this this is both quarterbacks rushing and I like both quarterbacks to go over the rushing totals why do I like this well like I said it's a week one NFL and sometimes you're just not on the same page as your receivers I do see opportunities where you know these quarterbacks are going to drop back and maybe they're just not simply in touch or in rhythm with the receivers and the play breaks down and we know both of these quarterbacks can absolutely run at will uh momes I don't think gets credit for his ability to scramble he kind of does it like a wizard kind of almost looks awkward but he still gets the yards you can see the numbers on the right hand at the bottom of your screen those were the averages per game last year 2023 uh so both of the numbers are within the average uh of last year Lamar Jackson I think he's going to run man especially if he has to especially if they're down uh in this game he's GNA have some big scrambles I think Lamar Jackson should be closer to 60 62 and a half in terms of the line set on his rushing total so I do think Lamar Jackson absolutely gets 50 plus rushing yards if you're looking for something to put in a same game parlay and at the same time man there has got to be a couple plays where they they blanket Kelce you know pacha's blocking or something out of the back field um he's not really interested in going to Noah gray on on on every single play uh maybe Rashid rice just ran a weird route Mahomes takes off he could get 1778 in one single big Play Down the field I don't think it's asking much at all for Patrick Mahomes to get 25 plus rushing yards we see his number set even lower than that I like both of the quarterbacks to go over the rushing totals in this game and that brings us down to one more player prop I wanted to bring up and that is Noah gray Noah gray I think an underrated player his his average last year was about 18 yards a game he said at about 12 and a half this game I don't understand it man if there's one thing that you're going to draw up defensively for the Ravens is to at least slow down the Run game and stop Travis Kelce to the best of your ability I know he's going to get his catches and his touches and his targets um but man I Noah gray for certain is going to be the Lesser covered receiver and if he can get two receptions or even one decent reception he's going to go over this number like I said last year you see it on the screen he averaged 18 yards a game receiving I think in a week one game like this where everybody's going to be focused on Kelce and rice and Pacho I do think Noah gray could easily sneak in here and have a 30 35 yard type of receiving game I like over 12 and a half receiving yards for Noah gray I think he gets somewhere into the deep 20s would be my prediction now let's Circle back here to just kind of the general numbers and mainly my free pick as the Kansas City chief on the money line is what I went with I don't want to be laying two and a half three points man this game screams a one-point Victory all over it uh 23 24 2120 26 27 all these are onepoint margins that could easily become true in this game Lamar Jackson in the regular season is significantly better Patrick Mahomes and these Chiefs in the regular season are significantly worse home field advantage does negate some of that uh but the total's 46 and a half 47 mid to uper uh 40s here a lot of pressure on the under I do think this might even come down another point or so um this should be close man I think both teams score in the 20s I don't think it's a runaway and even if it was a seven or a 10-point game one last touchdown by the Ravens uh could get them a cover and that's just not something I want to deal with but what I do want to deal with is somehow someway game one week one Mr momes and the magic that this Kansas City teams have uh this Kansas City team has um they're going to find a way I truly believe it my heart I don't want to be laying any type of points in a game like this uh where things are just up in the air I think this could be a really sneaky game where Vegas gets off to a big start in taking people's money uh I think Baltimore could get the cover here and I think Kansas City uh could get the win in this one so uh I'm going to go with Kansas City on the money line and as a little bit of tip here to end today's video anytime you're looking at a game that you think's going to be close and the money line is reasonable 135 145 even up to maybe 160 when the totals are lower it's a little bit more important uh just go with the money line guys you got to cash these tickets don't be greedy don't be trying to double your money on everything uh in baseball we have to continue to search for plus money Wagers the best we can uh but not in football it's just a different animal and in a close game with a team I do like to find a way to win somehow someway whether it be this way or that way I like laying money lines even if they're a little bit on the juicy side that's just the difference of uh you know the different sports here basketball the same way don't ever lay two or three points with a with a favorite just go with the money line it'll save you a lot of time so we're going to go with the Kansas City Chiefs on the money line for the first whiteboard winning free pick and again I'll be dropping a video tomorrow going over college football week two a bunch of picks and predictions uh for a lot of games in week two we'll go ahead and get a whiteboard winner up for college as well tomorrow so again double check make sure you subscribe to my channel drop a like in the comments uh or drop a like and leave a comment below in that comment section what do you guys think of this game are you on Baltimore money line I mean are you just going to lay the points for an extra payout uh I know the under's been super super popular in terms of social media opinions what are you guys doing I know a lot of you guys are sharp out there and you like to leave your picks in the comments and I read every single one of them and reply to every single one of them so I'm curious what do you guys doing in the comments are you doing the same game parlay um it's an interesting game just make sure you don't go too too heavy it is a standalone game a Thursday night game weird things can happen there's about $4 million uh and growing on this game you just never know we got a whole season ahead of us we don't have to dive in head first just always make sure you guys bet responsibly and use correct bankroll management and unit size and again if you want to know all the picks I'm going to make this week my website in the description catch you in the next video