3 Keys to beating Kentucky & Why South Carolina will win Saturday

all right three keys to the South Carolina Kentucky game and three numbers to know that South Carolina will have to win if they want to beat Kentucky in Lexington lock on Gamecock starts right now you are locked on Gamecock your daily podcast on the South Carolina Gamecock part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day what's up guys welcome in to lock on Gamecock it is great to have you along uh it is Thursday night we are recording this um before we're about two days a little under two days away from the South Carolina Kentucky game but I appreciate you guys tuning in to another episode of lock on Gamecocks I am your host Chris maror thank you for making locked on Gamecocks your first listen each and every day shout out to our every dayers remember we are a free and available podcast wherever you your podcast as well as on YouTube part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day now tonight's episode is brought to you by our good friends at FanDuel remember now through September 22nd all FanDuel customers can bet $5 and get three weeks a free trial for NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV visit fanduel.com to get started all right let's get into the show and we've got a good one for you it's been a long week I think a lot of people have are not feeling super confident after the Old Dominion game and I am here not to pump you know any sunshine or anything like that or or or just be completely irrational with the optimism but I'm also not not going to do that I've I've got three numbers to know we got a full in-depth Deep dive into Kentucky South Carolina and what it's going to take for South Carolina to win and honestly guys it's not that far-fetched of how to get that done so there are three things I think that are key to winning this game and you guys let me know in the comments if I'm right wrong somewhere in between or what you think uh the the key is as well this is the number I keep going back to and we'll start with that and that's turnovers winning the turnover battle all right and it sounds simple it sounds like it's kind of cliche whatever but with this game and with this opponent specifically it's huge now South Carolina had they forced four turnovers a week ago against ODU including the two inside the 10 yard line which were obviously huge dating back to 2021 so over the last three plus years South Carolina leads the SEC in total turnovers gained with 68 68 they that is the best in the entire sec now you look at Kentucky and over the same time period their starting quarterbacks have thrown a combined 36 interceptions which is more than any other starting quarterbacks in the SEC as well if you can force any turnovers and I don't mean like have to get Super Lucky like you did a week ago and get two inside the 10 yard line that would help but if you can win the turnover battle against Kentucky and especially Kentucky that is a team that does not respond well when they when they lose the turnover battle or when they turn the ball over in general and it's something that's plagued them for the last three plus years even even their good players will Levis was was very turnover prone had double digit interceptions both years he was a starter Deon lirry was the same way last year you look at their running backs Chris Rodriguez he had like six or seven fumbles lost in one season alone he was more than turnover prone and he was also the leading rusher in the entire conference so I feel like if if you were trying to win this game it's on the road and it's not been a very friendly Place overall for South Carolina over the last several years Kroger field doesn't get a ton of credit for being one of like the more difficult Road environments especially in the SEC but it has been for South Carolina you won your last trip there right you've won two in a row there but you take it back a few years prior to that and you're talking about you've lost seven of eight in the eight years prior so how do you continue this current winning streak like like what do you have to do if you're Shane bber in South Carolina there's there's several things and I think it starts with the turnovers and again I know that sounds cliche um some of the other things that we'll get into more tomorrow like the ex and0 stuff yeah I think that's equally as important if not more important you know keeping the pocket clean making sure you're not getting you know that front seven in your back field all day and that's they've got a very very good front seven with maybe the best defensive tackle in the entire country and last year he ate you alive he had like nine tackles the defensive tackle for Kentucky Deon Walker had he led the team in tackles against you that rarely happens for a defensive tackle to do that now getting back to just the surface level numbers to know again if you can win the turnover battle and that that includes Lenor taking care of the football none of the backs Noone receivers no fumbles nothing crazy on kickoffs that is the first recipe for Success against Kentucky I mean really for every game but Kentucky specifically and here's the other one right here here's that's that's the first one here's another one for you talking about the turnovers in in games where Kentucky has not won the turnover battle against Power four teams or or SEC teams I'm not talking about like akan um I know they played Southern Miss a week ago I'm talking about since 2020 right over the last four years when they play a power four power five opponent and they lose the turnover battle they are three and 11 since 2020 3 and 11 win the turnover battle win the game it's as simple as that I mean there are some other things obviously that have to go your way but like you've seen this number in Vegas climb you know from I think it opens around like four or five and now it's up to like in some places double digits I'm looking at our friends at FanDuel right now it's eight and a half and I know that a lot of South Carolina fans don't feel super confident after what happened last week but if you can start there if you can win the turnover battle there you're G to be in really really good shape all right what is the next number to know stat whatever column on the stat sheet and box score that you have to win if you're South Carolina because and like listen this isn't just trying to be like a a stat sheet Warrior looking looking at certain things and and like not getting into like the in-depth parts of the game because there's going to be a lot more that decides this game than just some simple statistics but if you look at like where South Carolina has won over the past two seasons specifically against this team and where they've won under Shane Beamer or had or had struggles under Shane Beamer these are the the categories I feel like in in stats that they have either like I said had Tri into Success With or disappointment and and and not as much success with and the same for Kentucky the same for Kentucky like it eats Kentucky fans alive that really after they had to to you know get rid of the 2021 win um against South Carolina because they were were caught with cheating uh I'm not going to get too much into that but like you know they had to I think like retroactively forfeit games or whatever you could make the case that Kentucky and Mark sups haven't beaten Shane Beamer once they they've done on the field once in three years but you've lost they've lost two in a row to Shane Beamer and this this head coach rivalry in itself you've seen it like you know rear its head at media days you've heard you know some like thinly veiled shots in the in you know press conferences and postgame and all that kind of stuff it's not really two schools that that really like each other um now it's not as heated or you know as much of a rivalry in some cases as like Georgia has been or your traditional divisional Rivals Florida Tennessee things like that but it has become much more heated I feel like uh of a rivalry and and not even just in football but in year round because of where the two programs are and where the two programs are trying to be um now I already brought the turnovers thing again 68 total turnovers forced and and won by South Carolina's defense under Clinton white over or since 2021 season when you pair that with the fact that it's something Kentucky has struggled a tremendous amount with that's why I think it's important same as the next one scoring First South Carolina has to get off to a good start and plain and simple the last two years when when you've beaten Kentucky you scored first in both those games and you want to start looking at like you know similar things that carried over year to year from 2022 and 20123 and those wins that's one of them scoring first they were up 70 in the first quarter of the of of uh the game I think last year and they were up 10-0 uh in the in the first quarter two years ago when they were in Lexington get on Kentucky and get on them and there's a reason why there's a reason why it's it's so important South Carolina again they have scored first in both of the last two meetings and they won both those games Kentucky is nine- two in their last 11 games over the last two seasons right when they have scored first they are nine- two over the last two years when they score first they are three and 10 in their last 13 games where they haven't three and 10 and there's a couple in there that are that are thrown in I'll pull it up real quick in this in this notebook there's a couple like I think that even the three wins are like a Vandy um Louisville was like last year you have uh just just scrolling through a couple Eastern Kentucky is another one so when you play real competition and you turn the ball over and you don't Score first it has been a recipe for disaster for Kentucky a recipe for disaster I understand they're at home I understand they have a really good team this year they have a really good team this year and I think it is just like the last two years projected to be around eight wins seven eight wins not that far off from where South Carolina like wants to be or or can be especially if they win this game but let's not get crazy because this is something that has plagued Mark soup's teams for a while now and same with the turnovers same with the turnovers and and the thing with the turnovers again it's not even just one position it's not even just your quarterback it's not like you had Jared garano out there throwing like a bazillion interceptions it wasn't that it was your running backs it was it was M it was your starting quarterback it was your backup quarterback it was multiple players on the team that were your best players that still plagued Kentucky and Mark stups and another thing has been these slow starts they have been one of the worst first quarter teams in the country over the last year or two especially last year they were awful in the first quarter games like you you look at like the 20 20 3 season and or and the 2022 season they only scored first in like 11 of their last 27 games that's tough to do because I'm not you don't play you know all 27 of those games against Georgia and Bama and Tennessee or or whatever they've only scored first in 11 of their last 27 games and a lot of those have been against akan and Vandy and and Youngstown State and things like that again nine and2 in in the last few years when they do Score first in those 11 games nine- two when they don't they're three and 10 they're also 0 and2 against South Carolina when that happens so get on them and get on them early and that is another huge huge potential Pathway to success if you're South Carolina now real quick before we get into the very last one and break down some more numbers to know I do want to tell you about our good friends at FanDuel I already told you about the promotion NFL starts tonight which is obviously very exciting for a lot of people um 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starting Friday September 6 view your account page um and more and it will tell you everything you need to know and learn about your Boost just visit fanduel.com again America's number one Sportsbook today all right when we get back we will continue talking about the Deep dive in numbers to know and I will give you the third statistic that Kentucky will have to fall behind um if South Carolina wants to win on Saturday all that more lock on gamec continues up next all right guys welcome back in uh I appreciate you guys joining us so again we're recording this Thursday night we have all the updated lines all that good stuff we'll give a prediction episode tomorrow I want to hear from y'all as well what you think is the most important uh matchup breakdown score predictions all the above send them to me on um social media or in the comments on YouTube Remember ver fun CFB on Twitter and Instagram as well as locked on SC is the uh Show Twitter handle as well so send all of those there all right the very last one and I feel like once again it's something that seems obvious but if it it like if it weren't as important and it wasn't so prevalent we wouldn't bring it up so you're third number to know and key to victory for South Carolina you got to hold 21 points that that is that's a number that I feel like going into the season we kept talking about over and over and over about how South Carolina's defense will be able to keep them in games a lot this year because of how like because of how they're built for one and it sure it could be B but don't break however you want to describe it keeping people out of the end zone enforcing opportune turnovers at opportune times of the game especially that's always been a key to victory for any team at any level of the sport but with South Carol this year again you have enough really really good players that I think all season long they are going to be Lenor Sellers and that offense's best friend for the first part of the year because they are going to be able to help get through some of the rough patches that you saw a week ago get old a minion but keeping Kentucky and specifically Kentucky under 21 points obviously you want to hold everyone to under 20 21 points but Kentucky especially you've done it again over the last two seasons last two years you've held Kentucky to under 300 yards of total offense you've finished even or ahead in the turnover battle and you have held them to uh under 21 points and you've held them under 16 points in all three years that Beamer has been in in Columbia Kentucky has not scored more than 16 points against South Carolina in the last three years I I understand they won one of those games but that is not a recipe like for success for Mark sups really for anyone but especially this team they do not have a defense that's good enough and they also turn the ball over way more than they should so they do not rarely do they find themselves in positions to win when they when they aren't able to put up a ton of points and if you don't believe me the the numbers more than show it Kentucky when when they are held under 21 points this is over the last five years they are three and 20 three and 20 when scoring 21 points or less during the same time when they score 17 points or less they're only one in 16 granted that one win was against South Carolina in 2021 but one in 16 in those games over the last five years when they don't score when they score 17 points or less and again South Carolina has held them to 16 points or less in all three of the last meetings where Shane Beamer's been the head coach and when Clayton white from the DC we can talk about all we want with all the the struggles that this offense has had in especially in week one with lenorris and over the last two years really at times or last year plus with d Loggins like whatever the defense was not the problem last week the defense I don't think will be the problem this week and sure it is it is a daunting task to go in there and try to beat Kentucky for a third straight year but I mean here's the thing guys I don't feel like they were favored of the last two years right I mean I can look up the numbers but I'm I'm I'm fairly sure they weren't um if you can have this defense who has has like listen you know how here's the best example I give you of of like matchups because sometimes there's just certain teams in certain matchups certain coordinators whatever they just have another team or or coach's number look at Tennessee Tennessee has been one of the best offenses in college Josh hypo all of his offenses have been some of the best offenses in college football since he's been an OC dating back to when he was at missou Drew lock like broke an SEC record for for tou passing touchdowns in a season in like 2016 or 2017 with like 43 passing touchdowns you look at all the numbers he he put up as the head coach and play caller at UCF obviously what he's done at Tennessee has been remarkable for the most part minus Joe Milton but like offensively the numbers they put up consistently against like all opponents almost all opponents Tennessee is one of the best offensive teams in the country they score on everybody except Georgia for whatever reason listen they've put up they've put up a ton of points against Bama and Nick sain you know they put up 52 on them a couple years ago for whatever reason they don't ever do that against Kirby Smart and Georgia and there are other teams that have been able to do it against Georgia at times right I mean but Tennessee as potent as that offense has been at like for a number of years they have been able to go in and where whether it's in Knoxville whether it's in Athens what ever Georgia has just you know suffocated him every every single game against against Kirby Smart in that defense they've had their number that's what Clayton white has done to Kentucky You could argue the fact that it might be even more significant because they've held less points I mean three years 16 14 and 10 total points scored I I mean that if that doesn't like I don't know what else you could do from a defensive standpoint I I just don't sorry 16 14 and 14 but they haven't been a they haven't allowed three scores in a game against against South Carolina's defense since Clayton white has been the DC so I know what happened last Saturday I know what happened on Sunday when we had our our meltdown and overreaction uh video and and and all that kind of stuff it was the most watched and most interacted with engaged video we've done and I know there's a lot of angry fans a ton but it is a new week and you are going to be you're not going to play Georgia you're not going to play Tennessee you're not going to play Ohio State you're not going to play Bama Texas any of those teams right now you're going to play an unranked Kentucky team and this is a Gable game this is a very getable game so those are the positive numbers that I think um South Carolina fans maybe not didn't know or maybe aren't looking at enough uh to get a little bit of a confidence who going into Lexington we're going to finish up the show with one more set of numbers to know um that you have to avoid if you're South Carina and Shane bber just flat out you have to avoid these numbers if you are going to win this weekend so we will continue next uh but before we do I do want to give a quick shout out to our friends at LinkedIn LinkedIn uh it is I'm sure all of you are familiar with it when you're hiring for your small business or if you're just looking for a job you want to find quality professionals that fit and are in the right role that's why you have to check out LinkedIn jobs LinkedIn jobs has the tools to help find the right Professionals for your team faster and free now remember LinkedIn isn't just a job board LinkedIn helps you hire professionals you can't find anywhere else even those who aren't even actively searching for a new job but might be open to the perfect role in a given month over 70% of LinkedIn users don't visit other leading job sites so if you're not looking on LinkedIn you're not looking in the right place in fact you're probably looking in the wrong place on LinkedIn 86% of small businesses get a qualified candidate within 24 hours again 86% of small businesses get a qualified candidate within 24 hours hire professionals like a professional on LinkedIn remember post your job for free at linkedin.com lockon col that's linkedin.com lockon colge to post your job for free terms and conditions apply but do it today all right we have one more segment before we get out of here and into the start of the weekend uh locks on Gamecock continues next all right guys let's close out the show with some I don't want to say it's negative numbers it's just stats and and factual information uh about South Carolina heading into this and it's some things that you going to have to avoid I've already told you that the the three stats they're going to have to come out on top of uh if they want to win in Lex again you're an eight and a half Point Underdog um against Kentucky on the road it is it's gone up to 10 points in some cases I if you get that game at 10 points then then a th% take it here's the thing the the thing that worries me the most we talked about the good we'll talk about the bad real quick and honestly I would say the ugly but this is the ugly what worries me the most is this South Carolina team and how they are going to respond by being on the road it has not been a a program under sh Beamer that has done really well at all on the road but especially in Road games against SEC teams over the three years that he's been the head coach South Carolina is two and 10 in SEC Road games just two and 10 they are 16 and 12 in Road games overall um they're 16 and six at home by the way but they are just six and 12 in Road games overall and two and 10 on the road against SEC opponents and here's the thing it's it's a it's not abnormal for that to that to happen like I've told you all offseason one of the reasons why I think that South Carolina still has a really good chance to upset somebody whether it be A&M or maou or um om miss or LSU this season because you get all four those games at Williams Bryce it's tough to win on the road in in that Old Miss preview episode I told you how drastically their numbers fall off when they leave Oxford and have to go anywhere on the road right so it's it's hard to win on the road especially in this league but 2- 10 is not good 2- 10 is not good they were 0 and4 a year ago and here's the thing you were 0 and4 a year ago and you lost those games by an average of like 16 and a half points per game but the 10 losses that you've had over the last three years under Beamer against SEC uh opponents on the road you've lost by an average of 20.7 points per game 20.7 now the two times you won you won by double digits it was the the win in Lexington a few years back when they won 2414 and another win against Vandy I believe it was like 3827 but they have not played well on the road they they they look night and day difference they score an average of I'm trying to do the math on it real quick about eight and a half points less per game um on in Road games versus games in Williams Bryce uh they allow over 11 points more per game on the road uh versus versus at home under Beamer so like you know over the last three years in in home games have' allowed about they an average of 21.3 points per game that's good that's good um on the road they've allowed 32.7 on average that is not great uh it's also just the way the offense looks in every single game like like the defense has has been fine at times but the defense you know gives up an average of about 71 more yards per game on the road versus at home which isn't a huge deal but the the offense is night and day the offense has been very different and a year ago even they they averaged 112 yards per game Less in Road games versus games at home 112 I'm talking like like under 300 yards per game total every time you went on the road or on average so you have got to figure out a way to get ahead early um keep this thing close going into the the fourth quarter you cannot have any turnovers or stupid mistakes um now listen Kentucky teams under Mark SS have have have been notorious we don't talk about it enough because we we praise Mark stops for being you know seven and six every year because he's doing it in Kentucky I don't know when that's gonna ever die out like at this point the luster of that stat I feel like should have have already lost its shine but one of the things about his teams that we don't ever talk enough about is is how many mental mistakes self-inflicted wounds all those things South Carolina cannot afford to do that on the road they've got to figure out a way to keep protecting the football get Lenor sellers going and he flat out has to be has to be way better not just a little bit but way better than he was in week one everyone knows that he knows that I think the offense knows it so I'm excited because I like I think that's a game where you can watch the tape figure out where you went wrong but it's pretty clear to everybody you talk to whether it be like a fan to to you know when Aaron Murray the analyst that was that played the position and was at the game in the booth it was a horrible game by him he looked very uncomfortable and indecisive it was his first game as a starter like you know I I kind of love the fact that he's going to Kroger field because it's his first road game for sure it's going to be tough but it's like you don't get him at night and it's not like you're walking into the swamp or Death Valley or or Athens or anything like that you're going to walk in front of 60,000 people who who just have zero expectation of losing that game and every time that's happened over the last two years between these two teams South Carolina has won so and Lor Sellers and D Loggins figure out a way to get enough points on the board get over 20 have the defense do what the defense has done repeatedly to this team in the Shane Beamer era if they do they can win and then you're talking about your two and 0 instead of one and one and in that whole doom and glube scenario I wouldn't say it's out the window because you still have a very tough schedule to play but like you know ending the month at 3 and one as opposed to two- two that that feels a lot better that feels a lot better and it creates a lot more confidence with this team the fan base and and and mo most importantly a lot of those young guys and that quarterback um going the rest of the way so that is all for tonight's episode I appreciate you all joining us I hope you have a fantastic rest of your Thursday night tomorrow we will have an SEC prediction show as well as a um another in-depth breakdown of this game specifically answering some of y'all's questions going over y'all's predictions as well as my own maybe do some Best Bets that will be Friday's episode and then hopefully Saturday night or Sunday morning we'll have a an Emergency pod going over the big win and the third year in a row for Shane Beamer over Kentucky so that is all I appreciate you all joining us tonight make sure you are tuning in to the show tomorrow and um and following Along on social media as well we will see you all then