Rating the Vikings, Chargers, Rams + OROY after Week 1 | Bet the Edge (9/10/24) | NBC Sports

all right welcome to bet the edge I'm Jay Croucher here today with Drew dii and special guest Trevor siker from PFF at Tampa Bay try Trevor with similar elevation and volume in his hair today as mine Drew sorely lagging behind with his longer main uh today with Trevor we're going to talk about the Vikings both La teams and close out by talking about the rookie quarterbacks let's start off uh Trevor with the exercise ghosts in metti Stadium Sam Donal an 88 PFF grade against the New York Giants do you think that game was more about the quality of the Vikings the lack of quality of the Giants um and where do you say the Vikings headed now yeah obviously I think both of those things are at play but I don't mean for you know the Giants not play well to take anything away from Sam darnold I mean he was extremely confident in this game and I think that's what's most important so you know you talk about something moving forward to me look it's week one you don't want to over react too much we've got to see it for a little bit longer of a time than just one game but I'd feel confident about Sam darn moving forward this is a really good football team and you know even with JJ McCarthy you know going down and and for as much change as it felt like there was with Minnesota and Kurt Cousins just not coming back I felt like this was still a team that was going to play spoiler a lot this season I felt like you know 500 how would that's it's going to be tough for them to do overall but I think the defense played certainly really well against an opponent that they should have played certainly very well against Daniel Jones but what impressed me the most with the Minnesota Vikings is specifically their offensive line really really good and the Giants have been a little bit disappointing in their defensive line Dexter Lawrence ends up getting a an elite PFF grade this past week but absolutely shut down Brian Burns and Kavon Tibido so I mean like it's just all around it was a really good performance for an offensive line that I think is one of the more underrated ones in the NFL and I feel like that's going to be pretty stable all year long so to think that Sam gets to play behind that offensive line with a pretty good run game and Aaron Jones who play play well in his first game there too uh I think that this is something that you could look forward to moving forward yeah I can't add much other than to say that KOC is kind of proven that his system is pretty quarterback friendly and it if if you're GNA get at least League average play cons you know or at least League average kind of decision- making which you know Sam Darnell pretty clearly put on display yesterday then uh yeah their offense should definitely be considered for top half and right now the Market's still rating them in kind of the uh high 20s um the def also is a real tough one head scratcher for the Vikings because the names really don't jump off uh you know the page when you look at the depth chart um Andrew van gingle is a local favorite from a lot of the people in the handicapping community because he's always seems to have his nose in there doing wild things but um do you just have a general sense of whether the Vikings defense takeaways from the game against the Giants or is this this is kind of another kind of overachieving unit for Brian Flores or uh do you think you're more of the takeaways are about the Giants uh and than the Vikings for that one for that side of the ball I would say there probably more the Giants and how inep they might be on offense rather than the Vikings but I still think the vi Vikings are a solid defense right I mean especially when you look at the changes that they made at Edge rusher offensive or outside linebacker this past off season you know you move on from a guy like denil Hunter who I thought man okay well this guy still got a lot left in the tank for what he could do as a sack Master you go get Jonathan grenard you draft um Dallas Turner you go get Andrew van but when you think about what Brian Flor likes to do and how multiple he likes to be he likes to drop his offall linebackers he likes to drop those Edge rushers as well and so now you have players that allow you to do that more so I think that there is something to be said with this defensive Personnel actually fitting Flora is even a little bit better this year and you mention you look at this group on paper and it sort of lacks some star power throughout the defense and so I'm not sure that they're really going to have you know a repeat type of high performance that they had against the Giants against some of these better teams in the NFL but it is a unit that I think Brian Flores certainly is going to at least be able to throw different pitches at offenses every single week and so it's going to be interesting to follow them but on that side of the ball like I said I'd sort of give the credit or blame whichever one you want to say to the Giants offense rather than the Vikings defense really stepping up and being a great unit yep I think that's fair I think as well with the Vikings like you're looking to bet them to make the playoffs they're around plus 200 uh I think there's a bit of maid on the bone there they're over under is seven and a half wins now which seems a little bit low given they have the banked win I think that I would expect the median outcome for the Vikings to be uh more nine and eight um than seven uh and 10 but if you are looking to bet the Vikings I would advise to maybe wait a little bit because their upcoming schedule now they get the break with Jordan love is probably going to miss that game in three weeks but Home San Francisco home Houston at Green Bay uh they play the Jets overseas and then by week Detroit at the Rams and then even like Indie at Jacksonville like there not there's no easy games in that stretch and then it gets easier after that and they're going to be favored in a lot of games down the stretch so this is a team that wouldn't be surprised if you know they start off three and four or whatever uh and then surge down the stretch once they get to play uh the arizonas Chicagos uh over the world Tennessee and it gets a little bit easier um Trevor pivoting to the Chargers who one of the Feelgood stories of yesterday I think between Jim Harbor's first win Justin Herbert giving some great quotes in press conferences JK Dobbins smiling earto ear uh I don't know why JK Dobbins always just uh loses Steam on all of his runs towards the end he like bursts out with the highest speed imaginable did it in Baltimore as well and then just completely just stops um the tank hit zero but um great story for him as well an early comeback Player of the Year candidate with the charg just mostly can't to get your thoughts on their defense uh which I think was a little maligned coming into the season certainly people remember they gave up a million points to the Raiders last year but there is Talent on this defense between the dline with uh Mack and Bosa and tul TW botou and Doan James who wasn't good wasn't great last year but obviously has pedigree um Samuel juner at corner do you think this defense is uh a little bit overlooked um or do you think that they just played Garden of muu yesterday no I think that there there's something to uh the Chargers playing better and I think that it starts with their coaching staff and Jim Harbaugh and Jesse Min are their defense coordinator now being in the building and I think that we saw that a little bit yesterday as well it's you know a really highly graded game from Joey Bosa really highly graded game from um from khil Mack we saw that from Puna Ford as well Derwin James bounced back a little bit from the low grades that we saw from him a lot last year played a lot better this past week and so to me this just feels like a group that Jim Harbaugh is always going to win in the trenches like he's always going to emphasize the trenches and I think that we saw that on both the offensive and defensive sides of the football and anytime that you are that Stout in those areas of the field you're going to have a chance and I think the biggest or most frustrating part with you know Brandon Staley when he was there as the head coach was you looked at this roster on paper and you went you got good players like you've Got Talent that's there you just can't get it done and uh I don't really doubt Jim Harbaugh as a coach to be able to to get it done with these guys or you know to misuse them like it felt like that's what Happ was happening over the last couple of years so I I I was really encouraged by how the Chargers were able to play in week one and I think it's only going to be a baseline for how they're going to be moving forward yeah and you we talked we noted this last night but if you haven't already kind of try to digest their schedule a little bit it's very very soft um and if this team is just playing well and they're fundamentally well coached which clearly they were based on what we saw yesterday then yeah they're going to be in every games against the elite teams that they play which are very few uh and as the market is kind of adjusted them as six and a half Point chock at the Panthers on Sunday uh pretty clearly people believe in uh you know the upside with this team I personally came away very impressed with the offense um because I hold the Raiders defense in pretty high esteem and I particularly that defensive line um and this was kind of a bellweather game for the Chargers o line and boy did they pass the test oh my goodness gracious giving Herbert time even with a very weak skill position group I think this Chargers defense has to be at least League average rating wise for offense what do you think yeah no I think again flipping to the offensive side of the trenches I think it's going to be a really well coached unit and I think that it starts with ran Slater their left tackle but the next name that you need to talk about is Joe Al their their first round pick from this past draft because in game one in the NFL he went up against uh Max Crosby and Christian Wilkins a total of 19 times combined with one of those two guys going one-on-one against him zero pressures allowed from joal on both of those players and so it's just it's sort of the dream right I think that everybody talks about it when you get into the draft if you already have one good offensive tackle on your team you say why don't we get another good offensive tackle and then we never have to worry about it for the next you know five six seven eight years whatever it is and it does not always work out that way and I think that most of the time it does not work out that way however for the Chargers it's certainly could with those two guys that are there and I think that that that good offensive line play is why Herbert didn't blow the doors off of the game you know I I didn't think it was one of his best games that he has played in the NFL or anything like that but it was good enough for them to win pretty convincingly because of what JK Dobbins was able to do behind that offensive line and then sure you know you look at that receiver room we talked about man the lack of talent there they've got to get more Talent there it was enough to win it was enough to score in the 20s for how well they played because I think again it's how well they played up front so uh this is a team that is going to be good in both of the trenches and when that's the case it's just it's too solid of a team to like if if we ever see a line with the Chargers that's like crazy like a team is favored by you know five six points something like that I I feel like I'm going to take the Chargers almost every time because I just think that they're GNA play every single team so close because of how good they are there well not to put you on the spot but there's a game like that in week four against the Chiefs what's the line what's the line my guest right now uh is is probably going to be in the five and a half six range yeah that's I mean obviously like Kansas City is the cream of the crop right like that's one of that's one of the very few teams where it's like okay five that's tough but again Harbaugh I think is gonna play that team tough and and I I can't really back down from what I would say you know if I were to that's one of those games where I'd kind of look at it and be like I'm probably not going to bet that one but if I had to bet one way or the other I would I would bet the Chargers in it because I'd want to i' want to be taking hard ball on the points when I can yep uh Quin Johnston 65 PFF grade on Sunday which isn't amazing but it's only a step up from his rookie season lad mccon as well 73 grade uh and so you know if Quinton Johnson's actually going to be serviceable um they should get hopefully better play out of Josh Palmer going forward like there's not a lot there but between the oine and Herbert and the Run game um maybe there is enough to get by if that defense is as good uh as it looked on Sunday all right it's a matchup between two of the brightest young quarterbacks in week two on Sunday night watch Caleb Williams and the Bears face off with CJ strad and the Texans in Houston coverage begins at 700 p.m. Eastern on NBC and peacock get your thoughts on Caleb Williams uh and his suspect opening game in a second Trevor but first of all Keen for what you think about the Rams who had a gut-wrenching loss uh on Sunday night Matthew Stafford had moments of Brilliance he also had moments uh of Madness turnover In The End Zone very nearly threw the game away at the end of Regulation as well that contributed to pretty mediocre PFF grade overall but what do you think of the Rams now with just all these injuries with pugan nura who just before we hopped on here he's been ruled like week to week with his reag Grava knee injury dealing with a lot of injuries suspensions on the offensive line do you think that this o line is kind of veering back into 2022 territory where it basically sunk the team or do you think this team is better equipped now yeah I am not really worried about the skill position players I never really am with Shawn McVey I mean he can basically take a a wide receiver drafted in the sixth round and make him a stud basically like every single year and we saw that with the CP and I don't mean to take anything away from Thea but like we're already seeing flashes from Jordan Whittington right I mean like Tyler Johnson what we saw from Sunday Night Football like I'm not really worried about it when it comes to the skill position players I am worried about it with the offensive line because end the game last night with only two healthy offensive line starters from what you came into the game with and you know it looks like Steve ail is going to be banged up a little bit and it's just at one point is it just too much to overcome and I think along the offensive line that gets tough for even the best offensive coaches to really overcome so again not really worried about the skill position injuries I think McVey and and Matthew Stafford are good enough to kind of figure those things out it's a lot harder to mask uh new players and and switching and injuries within the offensive line and so that's what's tough is that group and I hope that it's not something that really holds back what could be a really good team but anytime you really struggleing The Trenches that's going to be tough yeah that was pretty interesting why the line shift here as we have Cardinal's now flipped favorite hosting the Rams this weekend uh this was expected to be in like the Rams minus two-ish range uh and I think the downgrade to the Rams I you know P puka is sort of the headline name but the cluster injury at the offensive line is massive and um when I saw the Steve a and you know McLain it's like okay that's a flashing red siren presumably they moved him from you know they were going to start him at Center this year they move him to to guard because I think they were hoping he could anchor uh you know the the their running scheme which was such a enormous part of the Rams offense sort of kind of rising in the ratings as you went through the end of the 2023 season and now if they're back to Earth where you know this is a team that uh can't go score for score with an elite offense like the Cardinals might have uh that uh it's reasonable to expect them to be Road dogs you know in a matchup that you know otherwise years past has always sort of favored McBay but um I guess um the general kind of thought on the Rams path here to you know from a betting standpoint I I look at the you know NFC West as very crowded um pretty clearly I got I think you got a positive signal on Seattle's defense uh I think you got uh you know you actually you have a monster in the ners from AAL standpoint in terms of the roster and you have a frisky team in the Cardinals um you know do you do you have appetite to get involved with the Rams at Price mid-season if they continue to scuffle and if we go through you know this first quarter of the season and they just aren't healthy like is is this a long-term buy or um you know is this the sort of thing that uh you know kind of you know pulls the team apart a little bit yeah it could be right I think it it depends on some of the um you diagnosis of of how long that these guys are going to be out but I'll tell you man like anytime you got Matthew Stafford you have a sh I I really I really do believe that because I think he was playing at a very high level last year um I think you saw flashes of that in Detroit honestly like yeah he gets ding for the interception in the late in the second quarter before the first half was ending I genuinely don't even know if he knew the defender was there I don't know if you guys have seen that like people point this out like on Twitter like they're wearing the blue tops the blue the blue pants and it's like he's that Defender is truly blending in with the wall behind him and if you if you look at the wide angle of that Stafford throws the ball and then all of a sudden after the interception happens like he puts his arms up he's like wait what like he he is so shocked that there was a Defender there and Matthew Stafford's a 15 16e vet at this point like it's not like it's not like he's just like having these safety or overhang Defenders you know fooling him at this point in time so if you take away that interception I think he got better as the game went on uh he had a hell of a fourth quarter at least a couple of really good throws in the fourth quarter uh to get that game where it was to get it to overtime and um I I just feel as though anytime that he's playing at the level that he is playing at they got a shot it just kind of depends can they get healthier along the offensive line to really take a Resurgence in the second half of the year but you wonder if it might be too little too late at that point because look the Cardinals certainly looked like they were going to upset the Buffalo Bills in in New York yesterday and they really should have probably won that game they just are think are they're figuring out how to be able to finish games as a team at this point but clearly they are much more talented than they were the year before and Kyler's playing really well the Seahawks you mentioned I think their defense is going to be Stout throughout and then you got the ners so it it is a division that feels like it could cannibalize itself but maybe that opens the door for the Rams to be a sneaky sort of like betting team when it comes to the second half of the Season yeah I think and not to be over dramatic but I really think this this coming week is the Rams season because if they go lose this go to 0 and two I think they get the ners after that like it can get bad pretty quickly um and normally like ow and2 Matthew Stafford you'd back them to be able to find a way back but their schedule like there's just no gimmies really on the schedule so I think that's going to be tough for them I do think the o line as bad as it looked last night I think Stafford was pressured on like 44% of his dropbacks um they'll get allic Jackson back in two weeks and they'll get Sean mcy said Rob havenstein is going to be back um sooner rather than later which I don't know what that means but um seems like it's not super long term and so if two weeks weeks from now you've got um L Jackson and Rob havenstein back as your tackles you still have uh you still have Kevin doson um and then I think at that point you can probably get by my bigger concern about the Rams Trevor is on defense where I mean particularly towards the end of the game Detroit ran the ball down their throat now it's Detroit you don't read too much into that because it's such a dominant o line and Run game but what did you make of the Rams defense um in the first game outside of the Aaron Donald era and particularly Keen for your thoughts on um Jared verse and how he looked in his first game yeah I liked verse certainly led the team in pressures with six uh led the team in passers win percentage over 20% which is great to see uh certainly in a first game from verse and that's somebody who um you know you look at him and he won predominantly with power when he was at the college level and I think that he's trying to throw a little bit more finesse in his game but power is always going to be the profile that kind of allows him to be successful but he's already got a sack as well so um you just you you like how he was able to start I think that he's a bright star for him I think Braden fist is going to get better as the year goes on although I wondered if it was going to be a little bit of an adjustment for him just like it was last year when he was at Florida State it took him a little bit of time and then when we got to the second half of the Season really the last couple of games of the season for Florida State it felt like he was unblockable and playing with a ton of confidence so the defensive line I think he's got some good players you throw Kobe Turner and and uh and Byron young in there as well cam Cur was playing well in the secondary I thought John Johnson played really great in the secondary as well but it's just them all really coming together as a team and I think that that can happen eventually but again is the defense going to be good enough to make up for some of all the offensive injuries I think if that's the question you're asking that's the tougher one to answer with yes I think the defense can be good and if you would have told me that we're talking about like a fully healthy offensive line fully healthy receiving group fully healthy Matthew Stafford I'd tell you that yeah I think the offense I think defense would be good enough to where the offense can certainly get this team quite a bit of wins I have them at I think nine and eight is what my prediction was for this team going into the year sort of right around that playoff bubble but with a lot of the offensive injuries is the defense good enough to really lock other teams down enough that's a tougher question to say yes I'm fully confident in something like that yeah I think I'm a little nervous about game script at least in the next couple of weeks for the Rams defense because you know the the type of game script where they're at a deficit and the L you know teams do what the Lions did and kind of push them off the ball and really kind of put away games uh feels tenuous feels dicey um but if they have some leads uh and verse continues to put up that type of pressure numbers like that was a very good offensive line this was a good test and he was quite good um and I think um you know there's almost certainly going to be a uh um you know an opportunity this season as they're healthier if they get healthier uh to kind of get more serious about Dy Jay did you have did you bet any vers Dy already I have not but staring at the price particularly given that uh I'm not sure uh Leu registered a stat yesterday um he was only playing on third Downs to and it was only on arious passing thirds Downs which was a little concerning Dallas Turner had I think a 35 PFF grade and didn't do great in his first start um looking at like quinon Mitchell that was such a weird game with the field in Brazil and both quarterbacks looking kind of terrible I'm not sure what to read much into that but yeah I think it's a pretty wide open field um at this point um certainly not like a year three years ago when michah Parsons just wins wire to wire uh I think the could get a little bit weird um speaking of a little bit weird Trevor Caleb Williams uh who was the anointed one coming into the season wases 14 of 29 uh yes on Sunday 93 yards negative 20% completion percentage overexp expected negative .33 EPA per play he just didn't look good um at all uh do you think that that was just kind of first game Jitters and he'll wash that out of his system and be fine or do you think that uh there were more troubling signs than that uh I think it kind of it depends what you mean by troubling signs like I kind of think this might be who Caleb Williams is through the first year of this season now like that's not to say that he's gonna have like games that are as bad as this one where he's not going to throw for over 100 yards but you even saw yesterday I mean there's still throws that they're USC Lincoln Riley throws like he he's putting the ball up in the air as if he has 55 throws a game and one of them it doesn't really matter he's just like throwing it up to his wide receiver uh and it's almost like it's a throwaway like he's just kind of like giving his guy a chance deeper down the field it's not really anything you can tell that those are still in his system now long term if you're a Bears fan I think you have to be really happy with exactly what happened yesterday because it was Caleb Williams playing poorly and his team still won so in his mind that's all part of the process of sort of like reteaching him hey man you don't have to go out and play Superman every single play or your team's going to lose because your defense is that bad because that's the way that it was when it was U USC so that mentality I think is going to be the Journey of Caleb Williams all season long and I think he's capable of playing within structure that's why I'm saying even though this might sort of be his narrative all season long it doesn't mean that he can't get better but I do think that this is something that's probably GNA take a full year for him it's it's G to take a full year for him to realize the NFL game is different than the college game and I just I don't think you're going to see these like 300 400 yard passing games from Caleb Williams like we saw sometimes when he was at USC I don't think that's coming this year I think it's going to be much more of a building block season and I still think that the Chicago Bears are going to have an above 500 season with it but it's all about sort of reteaching Caleb about how to play quarterback at a different level in a different offense versus different opponents yeah let's not forget it wasn't that different of a performance than like oh I don't know CJ Stroud's first game last year and he went on to have one of the greatest rookie quarterback seasons of all time so I think there's obviously scope the one big difference would be CJ Strat had Bobby slowick and uh uh still waiting for information on whether or not Shane walen's any good so we'll see how that kind of materializes I thought there was more reason to be optimistic about uh Daniels in Washington mostly because he was up against a very aggressive defensive coordinator who tends to just make absolute mince meet out of rookie quarterbacks and uh even through all that had some pretty you know impressive plays showed some you know absolutely Dynamite athleticism which we knew was there um and while I don't think Washington is a talented enough Pro you know team overall to be winning like the Bears you know should that they could um certainly the ability to put up numbers in this offense especially with game scripts like yesterday where they're at a huge deficit at halftime uh seems likely um what's is you know you're on the same kind of wavelength there that he could uh be a little bit of a box score filler but uh probably not a winner yeah um I I think that I'm most encouraged with Jaden Daniels as a rookie of the year type of player after yesterday even through the loss and it's because no matter what was going on he was extremely confident and I think there were so many plays yesterday as I was watching that game where his game speed is just so fast and I'm think every time he tucks the ball to run I'm like this is about to be a 20 30 yard gain I mean he's going to do this in like six steps and nobody's going to be able to keep up with him so I think the rushing threat from him I wondered if going into the NFL he was going to be more reserved like we sort of saw from him in the 2022 season where he was really focusing on making the right decisions getting the turnover where he plays down in that first year at LSU I wondered if he was going to have that same mindset in this first year in the NFL it doesn't really look like that not that he's like putting the ball In Harm's Way left and right that's not what I'm trying to say but he's clearly not holding himself back from making the plays that he believes he can make so you get Terry mcen a little bit more involved you hope the offensive Line's going to play a little bit better moving forward and I think you can I think we're going to see some monster statistical games from Jaden Daniels at some point throughout this season I really do yeah it seems like it's impossible really for the rushing to fail and we already saw yesterday him have or Sunday for him to have success with that just needs to kind of stop fumbling uh three yesterday which is not ideal but um I'm sure he will get better on that front um last one Trevor for you before we let you go B Knicks did not have a pretty stat line 26 of 42 to 138 Ys the two interceptions those go 5 to35 on the ground with a touchdown which is always the sneaky part of Nick's game but the underlying Advance stats were very bad too we had a 45 PFF grade uh how concerned are you about Nicks um do you think that this is a product of going up against a very difficult Mike McDonald defense or do we need to temper expectations on Nick's season yeah look it was it was a very tough task going up against Mike M Donald defense to sort of start your NFL career so I think that that was rough and and I think that you see that in Beyond just nicks's numbers as well it wasn't like the Denver Broncos played really well and bonick didn't the offensive line was bad the Run game was bad the receivers were bad it just was not good in any way shape or form but Nicks on passes 10 or more yards down the field he was two for 11 42 yards and all three of his turnover wory plays came when he was pushing the ball further than 10 yards down the field and I think that was a big talking point for Nicks throughout the draft and it's clearly something that he's working through now again I I think that Nicks wasn't good but no one else on Denver's offense was as well so I don't even think this is a I don't even think this is a fair like assessment of of B Knicks at this point like you got to wait for a week where the offensive Line's playing a lot better and you could see all right well is he feeding off of the offensive line giving him a little bit more time is he feeding off of wide receivers getting a little bit more separation whatever it is because we just didn't get any of that uh against the Seahawks and so to me yeah it's worth pointing out that pushing the ball down the field was a narrative against him going into draft season and uh he failed that first test but it's not one that I think is you know unrecoverable or anything like that plus we're going to have a lot of games to evaluate him because I don't think they're benching him at any point this season I really don't yeah well the good news for the Knicks uh supporters and the Denver fans uh he was fast yesterday uh second fastest rusher in terms of top speed reached bonix that was that was not on my bingo card um I will tell you though that and you know more good news for the Bronx fans there's some soft spots on the schedule the bad news is they don't really come until about week eight um so this next upcoming set of games against Pittsburgh are the aforementioned Todd BS Tampa Bay defense the Jets the Raiders the Chargers the Saints like these uh next seven weeks could be a really really um you know struggle bu situation for Mr Nicks but uh let's Circle Panthers week eight and check in with them then and uh see if he's kind of learned from what looks like an absolute murderer row of opposing defenses yeah no I think that's about right indeed all right well Trevor thank you very much for your time everyone can follow Trevor on Twitter SLX Tampa Bay tray uh you are doing a lot of stuff at the moment is there anything in particular that you want to plug sh everything over at the PFF YouTube channel uh we got a lot of really cool shows this year um spreading it out from just a five day a week podcast now we're doing a grades release show on a Monday we're doing a preview show on a Thursday we got you know dedicated shows to the trenches to quarterbacks to rookies that we're doing throughout the week as well so uh all that good stuff over at PFF YouTube Perfect all right thanks very much for your time Trevor we'll see you soon cheers appreciate it guys all right we're going to talk about offensive Rookie of the Year in a second but first dominate this NFL season with a Fantasy Life Plus subscription get weekly rankings starts to advice DFS analysis and betting tools use promo code season 20 for 20% off go to Fantasy life.com rotworld to learn more as you all know by now we've teamed up with bmgm this season we'll be using bmgm lines to make all our picks and we'll have special offers for our listeners each week if you haven't signed up to bmgm yet use bonus code bet Edge and you'll get up to a $1500 first bet offer on your first wager with bmgm here's how it works download the B MGM app and sign up using bonus code bet Edge deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game and you'll receive up to $1500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses just make sure you use bonus code bet Edge when you sign up see betmgm.com for terms 21 plus only us promotional offers not available in New York Nevada Ontario or Puerto Rico gambling problem call 1 1800 Gambler available in the US call 8778 heny or text Hope n46 7369 in New York call 1800 next step in Arizona 1800 32755 in Massachusetts 1800 bets off in Iowa 1 1800 98123 in Puerto Rico first bet offer for new customers only subject to eligibility requirements rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 Days in partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel don't forget if you haven't signed up for B MGM yet use bonus code bet Edge and get your $1500 first bet offer today all right let's talk offensive Rookie of the Year Drew Caya Williams plus one45 Jane Daniels 5 to one followed by uh two three kind of elite receivers I guess Marvin Harrison Jr Malik neighbors Xavier worthy uh bo ni is 13 to1 I have no appetite to bet that and then we have the long shots Drake May Keon Coleman Brian Thomas Jr lad mccon and Brock hours got to say when Kirk Cousins was uh having a tough time of it against TJ Waton Co did sneak a look at Michael P's odds um which is 60 to1 I think it's a little bit tough to bank on at this point cousins going down in the next month which uh would probably have to happen though he did look really bad against the Steelers um what do you make of this Market any bets for you at the moment I think you stole the headline which is you watch that penx price like very closely because there's two factors there right the cousins thing wasn't just he played poorly it was the mobility and lack of mobility and not you know what that did structurally to the offense to limit them uh was a huge concern he may just not be ready to play um and uh he's got a couple of tough tests against some defenses that can really get some serious pass rush going before we get through week six um and there could be a uh you know the risk of reinjury I think is also quite High uh and the tail end of the Falcon schedule is so soft that I I will listen to that I definitely will kind of keep a very close eye on what that number is because basically everybody else to me was uh a pretty significant disappointment outside of Daniels who we just talked about having you know a very impressive statistical performance I think if you can kind of talk yourself into a four- win commanders team uh supporting a Dan Daniel's candidacy where he has you know qb5 fantasy type of numbers then you know I think that should be your favorite now um Caleb Williams is going to win more games than the rest of these guys but I again like still Jerry is out for me with the shanee Waldren system that he has built considering you know and and also Jerry's out on that offensive line for the Bears doesn't I don't know if that's going to get good at some point but um it does not it was not an impressive opening performance from them uh I'm fine drawing a line through Harrison and neighbors um not just because of sort of the roles and the dysfunctional offenses all right you role for Harrison uh dysfunctional offense for Neighbors uh which kind of takes me right straight into that second tier um I think Worthy is a reasonable price at 12 to1 I wouldn't play that uh I think um you know what we saw from uh Coleman in terms of number of targets was encouraging but he's not a game breaker um Brian Thomas Jr had the most impressive wide receiver rookie performance in my opinion and I think lad makoni is going to be an absolute volume Monster uh as he emerges as wide receiver one in the in in La so that's about where I would stop I'm fine draw putting a line through Brock Bowers I'm fine putting a line through uh ad Mitchell ro mun looks like he's now dealing with an injury on top of uh you know a third you know third banana type of role so um I guess uh you know of you know my opinion here maybe the controversial ones are Harrison and neighbors not really having any interest um what were your takes on those two players I guess Harrison in particular yeah I don't really understand what happened to Marvin Harrison uh I mean neighbors it seems very clear what happened uh he was getting open he got St line wasn't terrible I think off the top of my head he went like five for 66 um it's just that the offense was Dreadful overall with Harrison um I just kind of regress back to like Justin Jefferson the first game of his career I think he got three targets and was like two for 26 and then the next week he was like three for 44 um and then ended up by the end of the season having 1,400 yards and seven touchdowns and would have won rookie of the year you know majority of Seasons it's just he went up against an all world just her butt rookie season to lose um so with Marvin Harrison everything that you know it's not like I was really scouting um mhj super carefully myself um at Ohio State but from everything that I've heard and been told is that he's just the type of prospect who cannot fail um at receiver and so one game um not super concerned about his long-term output it's just um it's just not ideal that he had one catch and I didn't think think that was really in the range of um you know viable outcomes outside of being a super tale outcome which seemingly hit um I mean he was set in like the mid 60s for his receiving prop so I think that he's probably going to be okay I suspect that he's going to come out and play really well against the ram secondary that looked pretty uh mediocre with travius white getting completely cooked by Jameson Williams Darius Williams is still on IR as well so I wouldn't put a line through those guys I think the the best thing for for us and for betters is that Caleb Williams continues to look bad because if he does then all of a sudden this Market just has the potential to get a lot more weird um and K Williams was just going to look awesome his first start then this is going to be a pretty boring Market um I think and look there can be interest and um opportunities in markets where there are wiwi fight favorites you get to load up on Rudy goar at minus 500 when he's minus 20,000 all that type of stuff but this is the more interesting one where uh the fact that the three starting quarterbacks um all looked so Meek um that creates a lot of opportunity and weirdness like I thought there was just like No worlds or very very few worlds where like you know lad makoni could win offensive Rookie of the Year and I don't think lad makon is going to win offensive rookie of the year but now it's at least the possibility that needs to be entertained same with these other guys like Brian Thomas Jr Keon Coleman who yeah didn't like look amazing but I mean he's out there for a ton of snaps and he could be wide receiver one for Josh Allen um and like man Brock Bowers probably probably got to draw the line at Brock Bowers even though his stat line was okay it's just such a struggle I think um for that offense um how many games do you think Drake May would need to play um to be a legitimate candidate for offensive rookie of the year I would say if he's not out there starting by week five it's going to be pretty pretty difficult um so you know ultimately uh yeah 12 12 is 12 is kind of the bare minimum I could see it um and again like um the fact that the Patriots won makes it maybe that less much less likely that we'll see him early um and as you look at the Patriots schedule like the maybe the only soft opportune time to pull the switcheroo and drop Dre May Drake May into the equation comes way late in the season and so uh just an absolutely brutal schedule from the for the Patriots from wire to wire here and um you know we'll see if that changes as we kind of learn more about these teams where obviously our our opinions could change but um yeah the late buy for the Patriots is not solid and uh just in general the um you know the first time they play a defense that you would say they maybe maybe they're you know they could uh you know feel like that favorable matchup might be like week 11 against the Rams but um yeah this is a this is a really uh uh tough handicap and I think we probably I almost would rather kind of follow the um penck price a little bit more closely um and again like especially because of the potential risk of reinjury yeah I think the one thing is that like there's a lot of scope for brassette to just get benched because the performance over the next month which is I agree the window that may would need to get in unless he's like plays 10 games in his all world and leads the Patriots to the playoffs if it's a weaker field then then that could win I think for sure but for the most part you probably need brassette to get benched be through injury or performance in the next four weeks I think there's just no world in which Kirk Cousins gets benched in the next four weeks because of performance right just because of the cap situation and the fact that I think if they cut him in the next like two seasons they're cutting him for like 60 million in dead cap like it's just insane and so I don't think that is really viable it would have to be him getting hurt but based on um how TJ watt was gobbling him up um on Sunday cousins getting hurt is a a very real possibility but even if like if cousins went down um like next game like penx comes in it's not like penx is coming in as like plus 400 in the market straight away um and I think that the chance of cousins getting hurt when chance panics winning the award once cousins does get hurt like I think you're better off just waiting um and seeing if that does come become a reality um and then betting on penic at that time it's a little bit difficult because like the market has never going to appropriately price penic for what cousins' actual injury risk is in the next month and the so the only time to bet penic would be once cousins is hurt and cousins would have to be hurt for the whole season probably um and so it's going to be pretty difficult I think to get a price on penex but it is one um it's an interesting one to track I'm also kind of eyes wide open to Atlanta be just bad um yeah they didn't look good there are a lot of warning signs there I mean they the six and a half Point favorites against an Eagles team that I thought looked pretty mediocre uh on Friday in Brazil so it's not great Drake London did absolutely nothing cousins looked terrible defense against Justin fields and C was all right I guess didn't wasn't a disaster but wasn't super inspiring either Bean looked amazing um but Bean might be running uphill I guess let me yeah let me actually ask you a very more specific question about the Falcons it's the next two weeks they play the Eagles and the Chiefs both are in prime time there will be a lot of eyeballs on this team and cousin is is not not not not ready to move like you know 0 and three and maybe some performances that really really spook people who didn't see what what happened yesterday what you know what's the market sentiment on this team and and how does that change any of this yeah I still think that if they are 0 and three the Saving Grace for them is that their schedule is so insanely easy after that that that 0 and3 is not like a death sentence for the Atlanta Falcons in 2024 because after that um they go well I mean it's not as easy anymore because the Saints look pretty good and the bock look pretty good too but still they'll be favored in those games home against the Saints in the box then at Carolina home Seattle at Tampa Dallas yeah this looks a little bit harder than it did um at least did like four days ago before the season kicked off um I still think that they just can't bench cousins like they just gave him so much money they have to play him they have to play out this season and see how it goes um but yeah it could get could get pretty Grim I'd certainly be um I'm not even sure they should be the favorite in their division anymore um after what was served up on the weekend um I think you can even make a case that they're the third best team in the division yeah I think that's very within the range of outcomes all right we are done for today don't forget to check out NBC Sports .c for more information to help you with your wages thanks for those watching on the NBC Sports YouTube channel if you're listening to us in podcast form don't forget to subscribe and rate US also a reminder to find all your favorite NBC Sports shows on Amazon music just head to amazon.com Sports thanks again to Travis Simer from PFF for joining us Jay crash and Drew dini we will see you tomorrow