Michigan Weather Forecast - Thursday, June 13, 2024

hey good morning my friends I'm live chief meteorologist Mark toosa here with the m live morning weather update brought to you by Consumers Energy and pretty strong case I think for a line of severe thunderstorms or at least patches of severe thunderstorms in let's call it the southern half of the state late afternoon and evening hours so you know when we look at the chance of severe weather we start off with just a general checklist uh timing of the day do the storms hit during the hottest time period second half of the afternoon early evening Check Yes they would um is there enough instability is there enough heat and moisture to give the air buoyancy to cause severe thunderstorms yes there will be is there upper level energy yes there will be are they all you know perfectly fit into a puzzle where it put us under a high risk of severe weather no but they're all kind of close together so definitely a strong case for watching severe weather and let's and let's go over it let's show you what's going on and we start with the experts you know they miss it once in a while for our region because we sometimes get these fluky severe weather outbreaks that aren't classic Tornado Alley type outbreaks but on a day like today they do a great job and what they've done is they've expanded the slight risk that's the yellow area of severe weather chances they've expanded it uh yesterday I wrote about this and I showed this to you and it kind of took up about the southern you know it took from Flint to Ann Arbor South and West now they've shoved it all the way into the Sago area and the thumb so expanding chances the other they've done just at 8:00 this morning on their update let me try to get it for you well that didn't work is they've expanded the tornado risk 2% but what they're saying is there's enough Shear for a thunderstorm to produce this probably won't be a tornado outbreak type thing could produce what we call a spin up tornado we had one of those uh where was it in Leonia um a week or so ago and that's where these weak tornadoes develop on the Leading Edge of a line of severe thunderstorms and then they also show that uh you know as you'd expect if you're in a slight risk of severe weather as you'd expect you're also in the chance of um severe wind gust and that's what you're seeing right there severe wind gusts and hail so we know the area now I think we go back to to the main map here of where the severe weather could be and we look at the yellow okay oh you can see me back there uh let's see so we look at the yellow Ang tight here let me fix a few things for you all right so we look at the yellow there all right I'm back okay now high resolution rapid refresh radar forecast coming here in a moment to give you an idea of what may happen okay so here is that radar forecast latest one in we go through the afternoon this is uh 2:00 and we're pretty quiet 3 4 5 6 the storm's developing in the southwest corner and then moving toward Jackson an arbor and Detroit in the middle part of the evening now my question to myself is is is it done then or is another batch develop and the model wants to indicate something developing along the border and to the South and I don't know if this is going to be exactly the way it looks look at what the model said you know just three hours ago on its run it actually had a more solid line and it's been kind of transferring South so we may have lesser coverage of severe weather but it's the second half of the afternoon and the evening that we'll watch now let's dissect it a little bit I want to give you some guts of the meteorology so remember I told you time of day and I showed you you know 3:00 4: in the afternoon to midnight that's the time when we get severe weather 4: to about 8 is usually uh that time period then we look for upper level energy and this is what I'm going to show you I'm going to show you at 30,000 ft we have a jet core moving across Michigan with 150 mph winds aoft that acts as a vacuum it acts as an engine to severe weather if it's in just the right spot and it's close to being in the right spot or I guess I should say the wrong spot so I don't get accused of wanting severe weather which meteorologists don't want severe weather we report on the severe weather we forecast the severe weather we're interested in severe weather but we have houses and families too so I could tell you that we do not root for severe weather so this is one this afternoon and you see that red patch across Lake Superior that is the jet core so that darkest red I looked it up it's about 1 mph winds and you say well that's way up there the severe weather occurs in the on the southern Fringe of that and in the back and the front what we call the front left quadrant or um the right rear quadrant and we go to one two 3 4:00 this afternoon the jet core is moving off and that puts the area of severe weather in about Central Michigan and then you'll notice what we call a jet couplet as the next little patch comes out of Wisconsin and this is late this evening and that would actually be positioned more favorably but the front and the cooler air might already uh be moving in so it could be out of SN so to speak and that's why we're fortunate in Michigan is that the severe weather very rarely comes in syn Adam hunt has a good question good morning Mark looking to do some boating on hallay Friday and Saturday how's the wind looking looks pretty good I would say it's uh fairly light North on Friday and it's light and variable on Saturday and the temperature is getting warmer so you've got yourself a winning idea all right now we look at the uh US map off of the European so we're going to watch for severe weather this afternoon main threat um isolated brief damaging wind gust that's how these things happen in severe weather they're brief they're 5 10 minutes of storess um in a half hour thunderstorm and then we watch Sunday I've been watching that for all along not so much Sunday day for lower Michigan but Sunday night and Monday is there's a storm system pulling out of the desert Southwest so we go into tomorrow beautiful beautiful weather tomorrow 78 is low humidity Saturday beautiful weather light winds coming back to 80ish um Margaret Parker we will have heat advisories probably starting Monday but maybe waiting till Tuesday I show that to you here in just a second too so this is this is Sunday this storm system coming across Iowa this is Sunday afternoon and evening Sunday evening to overnight early Monday morning and then this is 2:00 a.m. to 8:00 a.m. Monday so at some point in there a compact storm system that's pretty strong for this time of the year it's on the edge of the heat we'll have to watch it the only thing that I would suggest is that the timing may help us out it may just be a really solid vigorous area of rain and thunderstorms and hopefully we can escape the severe weather then the floodgates of southwesterly hot winds open up the ridge starts to build in eastern part of the country and we are in it this is Tuesday and Wednesday the storms staying off to the West because we have what we call a capped atmosphere it's so hot a loft that thunderstorms can't develop thunderstorms develop when it's hot at the ground colder a lot but when you get the hot Dome going into the upper atmosphere caps the atmosphere and it doesn't probably break down until sometime Friday or Saturday uh we are fortunate Michigan that it does break down I'm not so sure this is going to be a long breakdown of the heat though and if that's the case we come into July 1st with the heat building and it says that July could be very hot not just sumary hot but very hot abnormally hot so look at the upper air all right here's the thing that I want you to look at you got to know and I don't sugarcoat this for you because you don't need it sugarcoated but an upper level storm system is the easiest thing we can track okay and you can see it so you're going to look in the southwest part of the country and you're going to see this like u-shaped even circular right now that's a closed upper level storm system and it's going to lift out through the Rockies and come toward us and be here Sunday night or Monday I've been keying off of this for several days now so there you see it you see that brownish circular area uh in California that is the upper level storm system right now today that I'm watching and then we go to Friday and yeah you say well it doesn't look as big it doesn't but when you've got 90° heat and high due points high humidity it doesn't look as big um but that is a significant disturbance for this time of the year Sunday morning Father's Day morning still off in Iowa afternoon this is 8:00 p.m. Sunday the activity usually happens in the eastern half of a wave like this so that activity would be into lower Michigan by Sunday evening and then as it comes across Sunday night and Monday morning it would bring us the round of rain again I'm just keeping an eye on it I'm not overly concerned because of the timing and because of what the models show but it has the makings of you know a vigorous storm system a stormy night then look at the ridge build so what you see there that's a pretty incredible Ridge for me as a meteorologist you see that 600 that means this this surface this 500 m surface mid levels of the atmosphere is up around 6,000 M the atmosphere is very expanded and that supports hot hot temperatures at the surface that's also what we call a capped atmosphere that's why Tuesday Wednesday Thursday could be sunny hot and humid um and then of course the Wester Le are still strong and they will knock it down at some point we go into the following weekend we're still warm but notice notice the difference just in a few days so we go we go Monday maybe 90s Tuesday Wednesday Thursday definitely 90s probably Friday and then note that the ridge backs up weekends and moves in the southwestern part of the country that gives us our break for a little while I want to show you this this is um this is the Europeans forecast for I have Lance picked out here okay [Music] um and there you see the forecast let me slide it just a touch so you can see it and you know everything's coming up 95 is on Monday for Lancing that might be a touch high but it'll be hot 97 Tuesday 97 Wednesday 9630 Thursday 95 Friday and then a little bit cooler as we head into the weekend that could be off that could be quite a bit cooler uh there so let's look at the real map and the real high temperature forecast again using the Europeans raw output uh as not the best way to go to just give you a general feel you know this might not be something that is exact hold on I'm working on getting the keyn up peninsula in there because if I don't I get the uper saying hey what' you do Annex the Q Anda Peninsula um D Michel Conor Mark how far is a good win forecast forecast it out and which app would you trust the best for wind which helps which helps Great Lake fishermen knowing the winds um I would say D Michael Connor I don't know which app to trust because I don't really use apps um I use the raw data I would say you know the European and the GFS model are good four and five days out so the general wind forecast on the um Great Lakes would be that far out too I do feel your plight I wish I could solve that issue I I could try but I got to work at the same time margarite Henderson will July also be above average rain I don't think it will be um I think it will be pretty sparse if we get the hot Dome building all right so let's go through the temperatures oh and I just nuked them sorry hold on give me a second here just a second little Jeopardy music for you there all right we're back okay so today we're talking upper 80s to near 90 and note where the severe weather is expected and so note that you know yeah the instability is there tomorrow little cooler beautiful um upper 70s Southern half of the state maybe low 70s in Traverse City a little North Wind and then Saturday gor gous 75 to 880 let's call it Father's Day heating up good day for a a barbecue uh before the rain hits the up looks cooler because you will be wet you'll get the first batch of that storm system and Father's Day in the up looks quite wet Monday 90s creeping in Tuesday 90s all the way to the bridge '90s in the up uh we should have a lot of 94 95s on Tuesday we should have the same on Wednesday and if we believe the upper air pattern we add a couple of degrees on Wednesday 95 96 97 and we Peak and you know do we believe this 100 in aaso on Thursday probably not very tough to get 100 we would have to have the center of that upper level Ridge over us very close it has the capability um but I would plan on a lot of 96 97s um on next Thursday and then at some point the thunderstorms come in from the north and start to break down the heat Dome this is Friday and you could see this is a meteorologist nightmare uh near 100 in the South and then go north of CLA and it drops to 80 you go to Travis City it's 70s you go to the up at 60s that's the capability of the temperature cont contrast at this time of the year because of the storms and then I do believe that at some point as we get into the following weekend we'll get a batch of storms push through that'll drop us back into the 80s for maybe a day or two so there you have it this is the ml morning weather update brought to you by Consumers Energy see um we'll watch severe thunderstorms have that in the back of your mind this afternoon and this evening uh not a sure bet but they we have the components that would make it sneaky robust maybe stronger than what the wording you would find out there and uh whatnot so we'll continue to cover that remember the more sunshine and heat you get in the afternoon in places like Lancing and Oakland County and uh you know uh Ann Arbor Sagen off Flint the more sunshine you get this afternoon the greater the chance of severe weather eventually when the storms erupt couple of great days we had in the weekend and then here we go I'm going to find some air conditioners put them in the windows uh because it's definitely going to be something you will want by the time we get to Monday night you are going to want to have yourself uh your house cool down if you can thanks for joining me on the M live morning weather update we're going to continue to follow the severe weather situation on mlive.com and I want to remind you that me and the higher ups at mli have decided at least for the moment I don't make the decisions forever but at least for the moment that anything that is life-threatening related severe weather related you know hot dangerous heat related we will keep that in front of the pay wall where you don't have to pay to read those articles so all safety information is going to remain free and of course then they put some of my articles behind the pay wall and you have to be a subscriber which it's the way it's going all the media you know are advertisers are great but they have so many options you know just think about if you had the only car wash or the only restaurant in your town when you started your business business and then another one popped up and another one popped up and then all a sudden you got five restaurants in a small town or three car washes you know your business would get diluted because there's options so uh media is going toward you'll have to pay for the content and our goal is that we make the content good enough at M live that you don't mind paying for it so that's what we have to do I'll shut up now thank you for joining me and we'll watch it with you on the afternoon and evening for severe weather mlive.com take care I'm mive chief meteorologist Mark TOA this has been the mive morning weather update brought to you by Consumers Energy bye