Labour win in landslide | Instant reaction to the Exit Poll

the exit pole shows labor on 410 seats the conservatives on just 131 the liberal Democrats on 61 at the reform party will be delighted with their result of 13 seats the snp10 an expected drubbing for the SNP in Scotland um apped cery for and the green party two seats so an additional seat from the one it had for years with Caroline Lucas I mean we've been expecting this land slide but quite those figures extraordinary this is an extraordinary evening and there are not many times when the entire country as it were turns it turns its back and chooses a new Direction this is going to be an evening remembered for a 100 years it is not the destruction of the conservative party some people have been talking about they have survived a bit but it is an astonishing Mo moment it's bigger than any of the great turns that I can remember in my lifetime and although that landslide that was expected has clearly happened there is still some moving parts here not just tonight but for what that reform vote in particular means for the right in our country absolutely I think we should all be looking at the reform vote perhaps 5 million six million of our fellow citizens voting for reform and many more MPS for reform at Nigel farage's back than we had expected I think it's going to be a very very uncertain evening I think a lot of counts are going to be within a few hundred votes really knife edge contest so You' got to keep listening you got to keep watching because there's going to be a lot of Thrills spills surprises and expected tumbling Stone absolutely and we're here till 5:00 in the morning holding your hand throughout it all we'll speak to you later on the usual numbers 0345 6060 973 but with us here in the studio and helping us gu helping to guide us through the night are the news agents John soel and leis good bringing us their insight and Analysis as all the results come in and John you have covered a few of these what do you take from this projection I mean labor from shattered to Triumph and the opposite for the conservatives um I'm going to try and sound not too breathless frankly because these numbers are astonishing as you look down and go through them um from where labor were in 2019 to this today seemed absolutely unimaginable if you want to talk the language of geology this is an earthquake this is a tsunami this is tectonic plates shifting and for the conservative party an absolute catastrophe when people were talking in 2019 about conservatives and Boris Johnson being there for a generation and in my lifetime I mean there was the there were the landslide WIS for labor in 1966 there was Thatcher landslide in 83 there was Tony Blair in 97 arguably Johnson in 2019 this is bigger than all of that I mean the scale of the victory is huge and just you know look there's still going to be uncertainty as Andrew you rightly say you know let's watch and see what turns out as the night unfolds but what we have if this is right reform with 13 MPS a far right anti-immigrant nationalist grouping in the Commons is going to change our politics I've also got to say that the SMP have taken an absolute hammering in this if this exit pole is correct far worse uh than a lot of people had predicted and John what's interesting is that the labor party when it lost so badly in 201 19 looked at what the people had rejected and decided to head Center onto the center ground the conservatives are going to have to have a similar exercise but they appear on initial soundings anyway to be heading rightwards not to the center and that is that is going to reshape our politics if that is what happens next the problem you have is that the center of gravity I would argue in British politics has always been roughly around a few degrees left of center and a few degrees right of Center Center and if you go too far from that you don't win a majority the problem is that the conservative party membership is way to the right of the conservative party in Parliament and that's why you ended up with Liz truss as the the leader when Johnson stood down not Richie soona and so it's hard to see what the party does looking forward John what this means is that the labor party has an eye-watering astonishing job ahead of it in terms of trying to rebuild this country from a weak economic position and all the way through they're going to be looking to their right and thinking if we don't deliver for working people if we fail to deliver what we have promised there is an absolutely devastating right-wing backlash waiting to happen you look L didn't go into this election with this kind of glamorous kind of exciting all singing all dancing set of pledges it was very modest and incremental and the problem they're going to have is there's no money there is you know there is a the very tightest of spending rounds yet at the same time they want to be able to deliver and say to the British people look we're changing your lives and that is going to be immensely difficult and you you know the last thing that Kama wants even though he's got this fantastic majority which means he'll get any legislation he wants through is for people to feel that sense of disillusionment let down betrayal same old politicians overpromise and underd deliver absolutely and Andrew your thoughts on what did for the Tories because we've already discussed a few times you and I whether it be the rout began with Boris Johnson but the campaign itself was woeful wasn't it it was it was the worst electoral campaign I think that I have ever seen and I think probably that we have ever seen in Democratic history it was astonishingly bad right from the get-go all the way through but I think really these astonishing figures tonight that was set in concrete at the time of Liz truss's economic experiment where she came quite close to bankrupting the country and I think after the the shenanigans under Boris Johnson and party gate and all of that when that happened the British people looked at the conservatives and they thought then this is it it's over they're going to turn their backs on it and that's what's happened tonight and sunak wanted the job but was found wanting in many ways absolutely um but we have now I think finally got all the numbers in detail for you to see now all night is going to be Lewis Goodall crunching these numbers lots of people helping him I'm sure but LS just take us through what you have noticed from from these these well Andrew we're going to run out of superlatives tonight quite quickly aren't we but this is an astounding result in the sense of we've got to consider where we're coming from labor is at 410 seats according to this exit poll and of course this exit poll we can discuss exactly what the exit poll is in a moment but even if it's a little bit off even if it's way off we're still looking at the best ever set of Labor gains in a single Parliament from one to another remember labor were barely on 200 seats in 2019 they're now at 410 that is just shy of Labour's great Landslide of 1997 with Tony Blair if the exit poll is just a little bit off then it's entirely possible it could still improve further conservatives W that means that they are their worst performance in their history worse than their performance in 1906 in the great liberal Landslide of 1906 the conservative party has never been weaker in Parliament than it will be in this upcoming Parliament L can I ask you a very straightforward question a difficult one perhaps what exactly is an exit pole and given what we know so far can we trust this the exit poll Andrew this is the first time that we're dealing with real votes in real places right up to now we've just been talking about MRP polls increasingly sophisticated polls but this is the the first time that we are dealing with actually how people have voted I.E there is a whole set of people very clever statisticians theologists we call them who are standing outside voting stations across the country in key places and saying how have you voted and then they use quite a few small number of those and they use those results to extrapolate outwards to get to this result by comparing their results in the previous exit pole data in this case of 2019 so if you're a conservative and you're set at home thinking well this could be wrong well yeah it could be wrong it could be a little bit wrong but this methodology has become more and more sophisticated over time so if you load back to 2019 17 15 and before it is generally more or less on the money and it would have to be out by a fact I mean basically you might as well forget doing exit polls if this is wrong it would have to be sufficiently wrong in order for the conservatives even if they gained an extra what 30 or 40 seats or whatever then they would still be way behind they would still be in their sort of 1997 kind of levels and can I just point out that before we hear from our reporters which I we're going to do in just a second the discipline that we've seen from the labor party the campaign is still very evident Angela Raina has just described that exit pole as encouraging