The Norris Disaster. | Italian GP Transfer Plans | F1 Fantasy Tips 2024

hello my name is rain and welcome to my channel where I discuss fantasy Formula 1 the Dutch Grand Prix ended and me and many others both in this community and Beyond are absolutely devastated there's a lot of things to talk about this video is not going to be as fun as some of the other ones I am um not in the best of mood after that super happy for Lando devastated for my fantasy team let's get talking about it so I've come away from sandboard with 180 eight points um but oh what could have been so I ended up transferring out Landon Norris uh niik hulkenberg and Ferrari to bring McLaren Alex albor and Lewis Hamilton in and now that may seem crazy at first but the thought process was actually pretty simple during the deadline stream which you can go back and watch it's on my channel you can see the entire thought process sort of pan out if if that's what you want here I needed to get McLaren in and that was a good move let's just get that out of the way getting Ferrari out from McLaren was a good move now Mercedes had a howler so Ferrari was actually better than Mercedes somehow I don't know where Ferrari got the pace from I'm happy as a Ferrari supporter not happy as a fantasy owner but you know I was never going to transfer Mercedes out it was always going to be Ferrari so I don't mind that you know Ferrari outscored Mercedes by 20 points McLaren outscored Ferrari by a solid what 22 points so it's an improvement and I wanted to make that change I wanted to switch Ferrari to McLaren I needed money in the bank to do so so I had two options to do that but I'll get to that in a second the second thing I did was to transfer out niik Hulen Brook for Alex alol now I ended up keeping Logan Sant I'll explain later why I'm happy I did that but there were a lot of doubts about Logan Sergeant because he wouldn't start in the qualifying and we didn't know if you know Williams even had enough things for him to to drive on Sunday and then we were unsure about hulkenberg because Hulk's breaks had been wrong they've been they' been bad the entire weekend and it was sort of smelling like a technical failure right so we were scared over both sergeant and hulkenberg two drivers which I had in my team and if I wanted to get McLaren The Constructor in I could only get rid of one of them now I ended up choosing hulkenberg because the uh I wanted to keep Logan Sergeant because if I sold Logan Sergeant I needed to change a lot of things about my team and then I would want to get Logan Sergeant back in later the reason why is because he's so cheap that he allows me to afford other better things and I'd rather have Logan Sergeant than show or botas which by the way that I feel like that's not even controversial to say anymore that saber is unbelievably bad we've been talking about formula a and formula B this entire season you know formula a being the top four teams and then there's a gap to the rest of the teams there's now a formula C and that's salber all by themselves the gap between 8th and 9th was less than the gap between 18th and 19th that's how bad sber are so I feel like the saur are just a complete noo you just go for Logan sergeant and Alex albon and call it the day and you just avoid the saur don't is not worth having them at all so I wanted to keep Logan Sergeant because I knew I would want to get him back later anyway so I said I'm just going to take the minus five he ended up with zero points I feel like that's a positive I'm never going to sell him at this point my budget is so bad that I be the one to go for luxury moves such as a better C asset I'm just going to stick Logan sergeant in there for the rest of the season and it looks like he might get uh you know swapped for mck Schumaker uh we've heard rumors about it I don't know how true they are but apparently James Val is running out of patient with Logan Sergeant so Logan Sergeant might be out of the car completely and if he is we'll see what happens then but for now I'm just happy to have Logan sergeant in there so I didn't want to get rid of Logan Sergeant so I end up getting rid of hulkenberg for Alex albon a simple downgrade and then Alex albon got disqualified in qualif in quality getting minus 15 points so even his eight race overtakes and five positions gained was not enough to get him a positive score now if he had not been disqualified from qual he would have had three points from qualifying eight I don't know how many how much points he would have G from this I don't think we can just sit here and say that he would have been on a 20 point Hall and a plus 1 million but I do think he would have increased in price I think he would have probably after you know pitting and D he would have gone down a position or two the Williams wasn't as fast as expected was not bad but he maybe would have end the 10th that's minus two on the that's one and then some overtakes he maybe would have ended on like six or seven points I feel is is relatively reasonable and that would have been enough for an increase in price so that's just massively unlucky again getting you know essentially weakened ruin for this and then the Landon nor decision okay so I had an option with hulkenberg down to albon and with Ferrari up to McLaren I had two options I could either go for Landon Orris plus George Russell or Oscar past plus Le Hamilton those were the options and hindsight Merchants will say how could you sell Landon Norris he would he looked likely to win that race but Oscar pastri had also been good in practice granted not as good but still close and we've seen Lando be really good in practice and then just not deliver in the race and again he lost the lead into turn one he has just lost the lead every time he's been on poll position so even after qualifying I was fine with P being third patri has shown better race Pace lately than he did earlier in the season and last year so before the race a lot of people are saying well you know why have Lando when you have pastri pastri is a b tier asset and he is as good as Lando and might as like will just as easily win a race as Lon Norris and I thought that was fair and that if that meant I could then get leis Hamilton in which I think was a better asset than uh George Russell and he ended up being that even though he started from 14th um I I felt that that was a win-win and uh I was fully aware that it could backfire you know if Lando won he was likely to get driver of the day I was expecting P to be second uh and in that scenario the points difference wouldn't have been that great it would have been maybe 20 points now that now that ended up being 40 points what L got 57 so 37 points and that's before or you double it for the DRS boost so the the little like margin of error that I saw that I be like okay even if Lando wins I think Lando will win because McLaren are fast piastri should be in second the difference is not going to be Monumental maybe LS Hamilton can make a difference worst case I drop 20 10 20 points now I ended up dropping what uh like 60 points more no that's not enough 37 plus 37 it's it's like it's it's it's unbelievable how big That Swing was and it ended up being that like Alex albums and Logan Sergeant's negative points didn't even end up mattering it was just the fact that I transferred out Lon Orris and I've had Lon Norris since Monaco like Monaco I had Charlie Clair after that I bought last time I went a race without Landon Norris was in Monaco and now he goes and just gets the biggest hle of the Season getting driver today stealing the fastest lap from Hamilton on the final lap are you kidding me like Le Hamilton would have been a 31 points that would have been insane a massive haul for him starting from 14th and now Lando just casually took it on the final lap on like what 40 lap old tires or something like that how is that even physically possible uh I I don't know I'm I'm slightly upset my transfers even though I got McLaren in over Ferrari has lost me like a net 58 points and if I gone with the correct route again this entire season has been me having two really good really solid options and then it just ends up being that one of them is astronomically better than the other one and I've always chosen the wrong thing it is not my year for f for F1 fantasy I have another red arrow the biggest one I've had since the Ferrari dnf in Canada uh negative 2,921 down to 18577 this was not in the script uh yeah shout out P gastle though finally doing something making up for the fact that he's lost me like 40 points in the past couple races so uh I'm not very happy but the game's the game there are discussions to be had like you know the the Lando switch is just so unbelievably unlucky and hindsight's Merchants will say why did you sell Lando he looked likely to win but again even if he won I didn't think it would be that big like how did he get the fastest lap driver day makes sense but and then Oscar P only being fourth behind charl Clair very happy as aair fan and then then you have the mixed emotion with the fantasy in there ah yikes let's go to uh yeah so both Alex Alon and Logan starting to decrease 0.2 million I don't think I'm doing anything about that I think I'm sticking with both of them for a while I can't really do anything else P gasty increasing. five I'm probably selling him next week to if I'm if I'm realistic uh maybe getting hulkenberg back in hulkenberg increasing 0.5 by the way thank you Alex Alon um but this is where I'm at with the team I'm not super happy as you can tell we're going to discuss what I want to do for monsa but first a quick little discussion about um I guess the game as a whole so let's do this from the Alex album screen right so we have a netive 15 here and this is kind of what I want to quickly mention and I seen some talk on Twitter about it and I feel that if if I definitely feel the same way you feel very hard done by fantasy sometimes because the negatives are so high in specifically F1 fantasy uh what do I mean by that well imagine if this was like a minus five this would have been a an eighto hole for album an increas in price and I would have been very happy like he got 13 points in the race but it couldn't make up for for this so the negatives in F1 fantasy currently I feel personally are too high now you might just say skill issue and that could be the case and I know we just talked about Lando's massive difference in in the positive points but that's an anomaly I think Max Sten got a 50 plus Point Hall like that that that amount of points usually don't happen in a single race weekend it only happened once before the season that that a driver got that high of a score it feels like no matter what you do it doesn't really matter because all you have to do is avoid the negatives because the negatives are so big same goes for the hos double DQ double disqualification double dnf in Monaco like there were people sitting on Magnus and hulkenberg that those negative swings hit so so much harder than 95% of the positive swings yes if you had Landon Norris you had a massive upswing but most people won't have that and you're sitting there with I know a lot of people have Lando but like you you're sitting there watching your team and you're getting points which is good but then you have one dnf and your entire weekend is ruined uh I remember from two or three years back in F1 fantasy the amount of negatives you could get from positions lost was only 10 I believe and in that case where the negative positions is sort of limited to minus 10 and you change dnf to minus 10 points I feel like that would be better for the game you might say well you should be penalized for a dnf and I agree you should be penalized but I think you should be penalized for other things too I think you should be penalized for getting a a grid penalty or getting a 5-second penalty for speeding in the pit Lane I think things like that should give you negative points minus one minus two minor things the problem is that these negative scores that we have in this game are so astronomical that it they end up being what matters they end up being what matters yeah you can say that right um so the the minus 15 for Alex Alon I think the minus five for not starting in quality is is fine but I think disqualification in qualifying should be at most 10 points negative but realistically more like minus 7 disqualification from the race 12 uh dnf in the race minus 10 the maximum you can get from precisions lost- 10 uh and then just add every like penalty you get that's second penalty or a grid penalty is minus one and I feel like the game would be much better for it because then it ends up being like you the the upsides ends up being what matters and you can predict the upsides you really cannot predict the downsides you cannot predict that Alex albon's floor is cheatsy and that he gets disqualified I'm not saying he shouldn't be disqualified that I mean Williams were in the wrong the the disqualifications was definitely Justified but in terms of the fantasy game you cannot predict this you cannot predict the H double disqualification in Monaco you cannot predict dnfs you can kind of avoid it by saying oh I'm not going to pick Logan Sergeant but you can not really predict it you can be risk averse and all this to say is we can predict who is fast you can look at data you can say I think this person I think this driver I think this team is going to be fast in this race and that's where the skill lies in this game because this game is a lot of luck as well but when those uh moments of skill moments of data analysis gets ruined by random moments like this like H in Monaco it's it's rough all right it it it's rough it hurts your e it hurts your soul your ego your mood uh I was I was you know I was fuming after the um after the qualification because I was so happy about my album transfer it went so well it it was exactly like I planned it I saw that Williams were strong album have been strong all weekend and then this happened and I'm no longer happy about the transfer and is a net negative for me again so I feel like the negatives are too big because they impact how much the upsides actually matter to any assets not just C tiers uh but uh but a as well uh so I I think it should be changed for next next year if I were the one to decide I would probably put a qualifying DQ at seven points and a uh race DQ at 12 a dnf in the race minus 10 dnf in the or did not set a time uh still minus five I think that's a that's a valid one but basically half what it is now for most things and then just add a negative for for penalties because I feel like if you Lou Hamilton I mean yes you're super happy about minus 20 but but 21 points from 14th he could have been on 31 points and I feel like that's kind of off when he finishes in eighth position starting from p14 because got a three Place grid penalty like I'm sitting there Giddy and excited that Hamilton has a three Place grid penalty so that feels weird I feel like that's not that shouldn't be in the spirit of the game if that makes sense so I think you should get penalized in fantasy if you have a penalty in uh in you know the actual race weekend I feel like that makes sense so it's not I'm not saying that I don't want negative scores I think negative scores are part of the game and they have to be there but I feel like they're too big compared to the upside of a lot of assets so that's my quick L rent on that let me know in the comments if you agree and if you think my point system of minus 5 for you know - 5 - 10 minus uh 12 my - 5 - 7 - 10 - 12 is is fair uh and adding on uh minus ones orus Twos for for penalties I feel like that would put the game in a better spot and uh well let's just look forward to what I'm likely to do in Mona so at least one good thing with the transfers I ended up making is that at least Hamilton and piastri are B tier assets so they both in they both increased 0.3 million uh what that means is that I could easily get Landon Norris and George Russell in you can't see them but they increase 0.1 for Russell and0 2 for land this means that if I want to get Lando back in it is a very very quick and easy switch one .6 million in the bank bang boom done I have two free transfers it's a very very easy switch so that is possible I could just write the wrongs of last weekend I take the negative 50 plus points um granted you know I said I lost what 70 plus points on that uh 74 points but uh Russell you know lost uh lost out what by eight points to Hamilton so it's like it's a 66 point Point swing only I can just write the wrongs of that 66 points negative swing pick land Russell uh and call the day those are my two transfers Bing Bang Boom now McLaren look really really really really good they brought another upgrade and it looks I mean it wasn't even close I'm surprised pastu was fourth but it it looks like there's something with the Clean Air uh piastri was not able to keep the same Pace as Lando perhaps it's just down to his race Pace uh or race cross rather but it it kind of appeared to be the Clean Air and that's sort of what what the McLaren team was trying to do with piastri as well when they allowed llar to undercut they were like just go now we do plus five to we do plan A plus five is what they said which means that they go five extra lap but they stick to plan a which essentially allowed pastri some clean air to go faster so that the under cut wouldn't be as drastic uh or at least that he would have much better tires later in the later in the race to be able to overtake lir now he wasn't able to overtake lir because Clair's and Ferrari's strategy ended up being pretty perfect you saw on hulkenberg who was up in P9 for a while so I'm actually pretty happy uh that hulkenberg didn't get even more points I would have been distraught if hulkenberg ended on like a 133 14 pointer uh which was definitely possible if he ended in P9 uh which it looked like for a while but once he got to like lap four 47 or something on those hearts it was like around lap 40 on on those hard tires that he really that hulkenberg really fell off and theair ended with like 39 or 40 lap old tire so the Ferrari strategy was ended up being perfect and those tires did not degrade enough for p to be able to overtake with his fresher tires but there's something to be said without that McLaren and clean air and also that McLaren once the car gets lighter they always look slower early in the race and then as soon as as as you know the when the on once the fuel starts going down and the de starts getting higher on other cars whereas Max is struggling to even turn the car L is just flying off into distance setting fastest laps at the end so the there's something to be said about the triple McLaren and if you're on a higher budget than me which I know a lot of you are I don't think it's it's entirely unreasonable I'm just going to remove uh Gast for a while so I can show you p is at 23.9 million which means that I can afford this with this uh now I don't enjoy having bots in here but if you're you know not like me and you have uh an extra what 1.1 1.3 million in the bank you could get niik hulkenberg here into this team and I I I feel like this looks perfect I'm going to be honest this looks perfect uh now you might argue that forari is better than Mercedes now I don't know I think that's going to change from race to race but if you're on a what 23 million type cost cap I feel like you can pretty much fit in the perfect team now which is triple McLaren either Ferrari or Mercedes whichever one probably Mercedes if you're slightly poorer uh and then you just go cheap cers and avoid the saers right so you have Logan Sergeant Alex albon and then ideally here you would fit in n hulkenberg I can fit in niik hulkenberg and shogan U uh again this would obviously need more transfers but right now when I have uh Alex albon in uh it it's botas now there's something to be said do I go for botas or or shog on you here if I do end up going for the the three uh the triple McLaren right because currently if you remember my team is uh leis Hamilton plus Pier gastley uh so the two transfers I could make could be this get Lando in for L Hamilton and then here I can choose one of the kick boys now I don't want either of them let me be clear but there's something to be said with picking the cheaper one even though I think Bas is better and Bas is better I think uh both of them are almost equally bad like the difference is three points right Shan was minus two Bas was was plus one and if I go for Shogun U here I can then later on sell Al albon for niik hulkenberg in the future should Alex increase in price so there's something to be said for for picking Shogun you where it like it makes it so that I don't need an extra transfer later but considering I get two transfers every week I feel like I just might go for the botas and and um and keep it like this so for monsa again we need to wait for free practice one and free practice 2 and free practice 3 and I say this every time because remember my team selection video that I posted on Friday everything I said in that video was thrown out the window as soon as we saw that you know niik hulber breakes weren't from working and Logan Sergeant crashed in fp3 don't make your transfers yet there's no Dynamic price rises in F1 fantasy there are in FPL if you're playing that there's no Dynamic price Rises the prices you see on screen those are the prices that's going to be there come the end of the deadline you never make transfers early in this game you wait until after fp3 every single time you need to you know set an alarm 30 minutes before qual starts and make your F1 moves then uh this could be my option uh to just switch to botas for Gastly and uh uh or Gastly Al for botas and then get Norris back in to do a triple if McLaren looks strong in Mona I'm expecting McLaren to be dominant now it doesn't look like Red Bull have any upgrades to come with that's going to challenge McLaren Charles llar uh Charles face uh Clair's face in the cooldown room when he learned how far ahead Lando was of Max was that of utter shock and disbelief uh fando alono is playing inspector Seb laying down on the tarmac uh trying to get a a Peak at mcclaren's floor the McLaren's fast I think the McLaren is going to be the dominant car for the rest of the season they seem to be the big winners from the the upgrade package that people that the teams brought after the summer break so right now the plan is probably to just do this and say I don't care about the C anymore just give me the McLaren points this was OB this would obviously be DRS boost on land Oris by the way uh I should say that quickly if you have Lando or Max by the way I don't think Max is an option anymore you should have Lando instead if you have L nor in there you put the DRS boost on him there's no reason to have a an a tier asset in there if you're not DRS boosting him you can be cutesy and and put the DRS boost on Pi but I feel like you're just throw throwing at that point um so so yeah uh granted this could obviously change we could get to um Friday or or Saturday and Logan Sergeant could be out of the car with mck Schumer in at a different price so I have to sell Logan Sergeant I don't know I mean honestly Logan Sergeant at that price point zero points every week I'll honestly take it no risk for mck Schumaker crashing in the wall I I i' maybe you have to make a transfer to transfer Logan out I think that's how it works so you can't actually make another transfer but if I can do this and to just keep Logan for the rest of the season I I'm probably happy so at this point this is this is likely what I'm going with but it could also be keeping Pier gastan there and and getting um getting Russell over piastri any of this any of these combinations are are very possible we'll see what happens in Monza I should I should mention that like here there is an opportunity to add Ferrari but then again I only have two transfers so if Ferrari looks strong in Monza better than Mercedes I'm still not going to buy them I'm going to stick with Mercedes I don't think a 10-point hit is worth it to get them in uh so that's my quick Merced Ferrari chat and uh again their drivers yes you won't land on Oris because he looks like he's going to win every race but do you want to get lir when you can just get pastri not really do you want to get Carlos SS over you know Russell is two million cheaper probably not so even though Ferrari looked better than Mercedes in that race specifically just because of the price points I don't even think it's worth it to to attt it uh at the moment so that's about does it uh if you didn't watch the team selection video I posted on Friday there's a midsection of that video which is all about the chips for the rest of the season uh you should definitely go and watch that I think that's uh important to keep in mind right there's nine La nine races left and if you have five or so chips remaining you need to start using them because you can only use one chip per race so keep that in mind going forward I only have three chips remaining so I don't have to rush them out as much and I have a solid plan for them but I might post a separate video with just that conversation from Friday's video because I think it was a good one I'm doing another deadline stream on Saturday so don't miss it where we can all sit chat uh and discuss what to do do only to inevitably it being ruined by something that's out of our control uh so if you want to join me and make the wrong choices together you can do so right here on this channel 2 hours before qualifying so that's at 2 p.m. central eastern standard time on uh Saturday uh look forward to the team selection video probably on Friday after free practice if you haven't subscribed already why are you still here no that came out wrong just subscribe uh it would mean a lot to me and follow me on Twitter join the Discord where you can chat with me and uh ask me questions and hear me chat about other stuff as well I do a lot of FPL Chats on on Discord and on on Twitter so if you're interested in that follow me there I'll see you in the next video probably Friday maybe sooner we'll see I'll probably make a video If Logan gets kicked do you think Logan Sergeant gets kicked if you're still here does Logan Sergeant get the boot will MC Sher Drive in moner let me know down below