BEST NFL Thursday Night Football Player Prop Picks & Bets | Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins 9/12/24

NFL Week 1 is in the books and boy what a week it was this is part of why it's my favorite time of the year because we absolutely crushed it in week one let's take just a quick look at how we did guys in week one we were up 70 units and are up a total of 95.6 units since college football week one I don't usually bet college football but LSU USC game got some action and won about 23 units there but 70 units in week one guys we crushed it I couldn't even expect 70 units in week one 70 units is big in any week but in week one where we don't have any data there's new players all over the place new coaches new schemes it's just really hard to predict and I know a lot of handicappers got slaughtered because a lot of the quarterbacks and the wide receivers underperformed what their expectations were and what we're used to seeing from them but not us guys we had a great week and we will continue to crush it week in week out let's jump into the picks for the Thursday night game between the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins all right starting with my cornerstone picks the top two picks are kind of what I call my cornerstone picks which I will have in not every single bet but I will have in the majority of my bets either one or both of them and my favorite play of the night is going to be James Cook over two and a half receptions that's what these bullets are is for the 2 and 1 half receptions the alternative is over 18 and 1 12 reception yards if the app that you're playing on doesn't offer the over two and a half receptions I think better and um uh price picks I don't think we're offering the receptions line so you might have to take the reception yards line I typically like The Yards line more than I like the receptions itself because you can get the yards in one play in one reception there's a higher probability that he just breaks One play for 18 and 1 12 yards and you hit your you hit your pick in uh in one play but the implied probability for the two and a half the over two and a half receptions is 55% uh got that off of outlier here and let's see and he's hit this number in seven of the last 10 games 70% hit rate and guys if you watched the Bills game against the Cardinals last week Josh Allen is really good at football the Buffalo Bills receivers are not very good right now uh Keon home and led the team he actually looked better than I expected him to look but uh he distributed I think 10 different targets but a lot of people are going to have this game as a shootout I don't think it's going to go that way I'm not going to completely fade the Dolphins but if you guys watched the video from Monday where I faded most of the San Francisco 49ers offense because Trent Williams had sat out Brandon iuk had sat out Christian mcaffrey was hurt um and and they were going against one of the best defenses in the league with the Jets who just completely the bed and unfortunately they probably cost us another uh 25 units uh if they would have just showed up in any way we'd have been a lot better off but sort of like that game I'm expecting the Thursday night game on a short week the it's early in the season so these teams are not well oiled machines yet you're on a short week and neither of these teams played particularly well on Sunday the Dolphins barely escaped they shouldn't have beat the Jags and the Buffalo Bills were down two touchdowns to the Arizona Cardinals early in that game and they actually had a they had to go into a more uh pass heavy game script because they were down two touchdowns but I think this team is one that wants to play defense and run the football more a lot more than what it showed against the Cardinals so I'm expecting this game to be uh to come a maybe significantly under also the history of the dolphins against the bills is not good whether it's Shawn mcder whether it's the defensive scheme they play a lot of to high and the Dolphins uh pass game is predicated on a lot of uh big chunk plays because the bills are the Bills defense is focused on preventing big plays uh they typically get the best of the Dolphins and they have dominated them in this series but for Thursday night game I think the bills are going to want to they don't have the receivers they don't have Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs to come back in a shootout I think they're going to want to slow this game down keep the Miami Dolphins uh offense off the field and that means they're going to feed James Cook so I also I actually don't have it listed here I also have James Cook um over 14 a half uh rushing attempts as one of my favorite plays I'm GNA have to add that one later but expect them to feed James Cook through the run and through the pass and I think he he cruises over this uh two and a half receptions he had three last week I think for 30 something yards against the Cardinals and uh they're gonna they're going to feature him this game just like they did after Joe Brady took over the play calling last year now my second favorite play is Wadd over four and a half receptions he hit this number last week he got five against the Cardinals even though he missed uh he missed a part of the game with injury and came back went over on the over went over 100 yard on just five receptions and the implied probability here is 57% I think he's going to play more the underneath and intermediate especially with the Dolphins running backs being banged up they definitely won't have most dir he's already been rolled out and I'm going to guess if aain is really dealing with a high ankle the chances of him playing are pretty much slim to none um and obviously he's missed a lot of games throughout his NFL and college career so I'm going to guess that they wind up with with Jeff Wilson and Jaylen Wright as the active running backs which means Wadd and Tyreek are going to see more volume and Wadd is probably going to see a lot of that short to intermediate so I think this four and a half receptions is a lock and he's hit this in six of his last 10 games and he didn't even have a good year last year so jumping into some of the other picks a again you'll see a lot of these picks favor more of a low-scoring game and I I think that's the way it's going to go all of my picks aren't going to be unders by any means that way I can hedge a little bit in case the game becomes a shootout but I'm definitely going to be leaning uh heavy lean probably into uh any of the props that are correlated to a lower scoring game so you'll see Jason Sanders over one and a half field goals made uh the Buffalo Bills as mentioned before they prevent big plays they're more of a Bend don't break defense so the Dolphins might still be able to move the ball up and down the field but they might stall out whenever it starts to get into the Red Zone especially without their two uh running backs who scor them touchdowns being mostard and uh achain and because I think the Buffalo Bills are going to try to run the ball and shorten this game and keep Miami off the field Josh Allen under 245 a half passing yards guys after Joe Brady took over they wanted to be a running team including Josh Allen in the running so it's not like they just taking him out of the game plan but Josh Allen has been under this number in seven of the last 10 games there's a 53% implied probability and another thing that I wanted to bring up is look at the number I I noticed this last week look at apps that are discounting um certain props they're not giving them away as free but they're they're discounting them as certain props this happened exactly with Dak Prescott last week uh sleeper discounted him to 199 and a half pass yards because it was just enticing enough for you to hit that over but sleeper also still thinks that there's a chance that he still doesn't even hit that line so 199 a half everyone piles in on it and he didn't hit it he got like 179 I want to say and I lost that bet uh and they're doing that with Ty re as well uh I don't know maybe it's chalkboard one of them has him at 792 receiving yards uh or maybe that's actually sleeper as well it is sleeper I'm not sure I'm going to take that pick there was chalkboard had him a special on him at 49 a half receiving yards I did take that I do think he'll get over 50 but I'm not sure he'll get over uh 80 and I'm actually going to uh put him on the under and a number of my slips under his 90 uh 98 and a half or 99 and a half depending on what app you're looking at again guys this is also why you need to be on all the apps they're all running promos price pick has a Caleb Williams free square if you sign up with it um sleeper has two different promos uh going for tomorrow night's game and better also has a promo and chalkboard has two promos so jump on all the apps guys take advantage of these promos especially when they're free squares like the Caleb Williams one is on price picks uh you'll find all the information in the details down in the show notes in the description uh if you want to get signed up and take advantage of those promos guys I can't stress the promos being so important to remaining profitable guys they've bailed me out already a number of times in this uh four games that we've already had in the NFL season or for slates I guess I should say now another one of my favorite plays is going to be Josh Allen over half an interception if you jump into the NFL pro play plus into their projections this is a powered by AWS the thing you see them advertise all the time they've got him projected at 0.9 interceptions and the Dolphins were I think fifth was it yeah tied for fifth in turnovers in in 2023 and I mean the one knock on Josh Allen is he turns all he turns the ball over a lot he's very careless with the ball if they wind up having a shootout with the dolphins he's going to have to throw a lot more and he does not have Diggs and Gabe Davis his trusty receivers from the last two years I think he's going to throw a pick um it's going to be one of the playes I have a lot of exposure to is the over uh half an interception now this line is not available everywhere so jump on this one as soon as you can guys cuz it will not remain here uh they'll either take it off or they'll raise it after enough people jump into it on outlier it has a 60% implied probability score one and a half receptions he got this uh he got two last week and I know he's playing for a different team last year but he hit this in eight of his last 10 targets uh and I think Keon Coleman is I predict that Keon Coleman is going to get shadowed by Jaylen Ramsey so you'll see in another prop down below I have Keon Coleman coming on the under if Keon the target leader of last week doesn't get as many targets then somebody else is going to have to pick up the slack that's also why we think James Cook is good for 2 and a half receptions but Curtis Samuel over one and a half receptions this this feels like a gimme guys uh especially if uh Allen has to go to different targets because Keon is being shadowed with uh Jaylen Ramsey one of the thing one of the knocks on Keon Coleman coming out in out of the draft was he struggles to separate against anyone because he's not super fast Jaylen Ramsey is big he's going to be able to match his physicality with Keon and he's not not going to be able to separate from Jaylen Ramsey Jaylen Ramsey in Shadow coverage on Gabe Davis last week was somewhere in the 70 percentage Gabe Davis was targeted once and with no receptions so I'm looking at Keon locking up uh or I'm sorry I'm looking at Jaylen Ramsey locking up Keon and so that kind of explains the over on Curtis Samuel and the under on Keon uh down here we've already talked about the Jason Sanders over one and a half field goals made now Tyreek hill we talked about this a little bit the Bills play a lot of too high safeties to prevent these big plays and if you watched the game last week against the Cardinals I know it looks like the defense gave up a ton of points but it was really the special teams in the offense that put the defense in bad situations one of the touchdowns was a kickoff return for a touchdown and then another one was Josh Allen fumbled deep into their own in their own territory and the Cardinals didn't have far to go to score a touchdown so the defense was put well one of them wasn't even the defense at all and the other one the defense was put into a bad situation um otherwise they held Conor to uh around 50 rushing yards and Kyler Murray under 200 passing yards so the defense even though they had a lot of changes this year they were still pretty stout even though it looks like the Cardinals scored a lot of points against them Von Miller was back he got a sack that's going to be huge for this defense especially one that's missing Matt Milano and Jordan puer and travius white some of the big names that you're used to seeing from this bill's defense are no longer there so getting Von Miller back was huge and they still play pretty well against a team that some people had some pretty you know decent expectations with the Cardinals getting their new uh their new draft toy and Marvin Harrison Jr who who was a complete no-show in week one and whether that was the Buffalo Bills defense or whether that was uh Harrison just not being as NFL ready as everyone thought who can say only time will tell but Tyreek is not going to go over a 100 yards in every single game it's just statistically not going to happen so he's hit this in five of his last 10 games so he h it at an incredibly High rate it's a very high number uh but there's a 54% imply probability that he will will not hit 98 and2 he's never hit this number against the bills guys never in all of his games he has not hit this he has not hit this this number so if there was ever going to be a game that you're going to fade Tyreek this is probably a good place to start and the last pick that I'm going to have a lot of mixed in is going to be the Josh Allen anytime touchdown uh has a surprisingly low 51% uh implied probability considering he's hit this in eight of his 10 last games eight of his last 10 games and he's as we saw last week he got two touchdowns last week two rushing touchdowns last week on top of his two passing touchdowns but he still the goal line running back for this team for a team that scores a lot of points which means he's going to have a lot of opportunities Miami is not exactly Stout against the run so I see him hitting this again so that does it for my Thursday night picks guys if you want access to my Sunday slate where I'll have a lot more uh exposure to just I think last week I had 31 32 units uh in play on Sunday there's just more games to pick from more props to choose from uh more correlated plays to be able to profit from make sure you sign up at the winnable if we don't have a profitable week guys I will give away week three for free get these pcks texted to you directly so you don't even have to come to YouTube sign up at the winnable guys I certainly don't have time to make a video for every set of picks and as I said I had some somewhere in the 30 31 slips for Sunday's uh slate last week and I imagine it'll be similar this week so sign up for that that way you can get the text messages directly with what my slips and what my plays are if we aren't profitable in week two I will give away week three completely free week three VIP picks completely free and also guys make sure that you sign up for all the apps promo codes are in the description you need to be on all of them because lines are different on all of them promos are different on all of them and you want to take advantage of them the best that you can this is an exciting Thursday night game I'm glad that all of the Thursday night games aren't shitty like they were last year so I'm pumped to watch this one I'm pumped for week two and I'm pumped to win us some more money make sure you sign up in the links below and I'll see you guys in the next video