CFB Hard Truths: Colorado Will Not Win It All | Michigan Did NOT Cheat To A Natty + MORE

what are the hard truths when it comes to the College Football World when I say hard truths I mean something that is true that we believe is true at least but maybe doesn't get as much acknowledgement as it should in some part because it's a hard pill to swallow in other parts because we just don't want to acknowledge it so to help us break that all down from Andy Staples on three the man the myth the legend jumping on here a little two a days did his show this morning on the Onre YouTube channel so another reason to subscribe but he's on this show right now and that is the man Andy Staples Andy what's going on man How We Living what's up JD I am uh I am just stealing myself to deliver hard truths to to give it's not bad news necessarily but it's it's tough news it's news people need to hear some people I mean it's it's been widely uh out there people people push this out there sometimes you can't handle the truth can't handle the truth sometimes you don't want the truth you can't handle it but even with that you order code red yeah I I I feel like we're in the you just mentioned you know the drinking the Kool-Aid the expired Kool-Aid we are in Kool-Aid season right now we are in heavy Kool-Aid season everybody believes everybody's happy but you do need to realize there there there's some things that that can't work just because of math and that's one thing that that I was thinking about so can I can I throw a hard Truth at you JD can I start with one I was about to say will you please bat lead off and get us rolling here I would love that okay so I'm doing the count in my head because we've gone over this I feel like a million times since last season ended about in the new sec how many teams will enter 2024 expecting a playoff birth so how many fan bases will expect their team to make the playoff so for sure Georgia that's one mhm Texas will expect it they made it last year that's two Alabama will expect it because they expect it every year that's three ol Miss certainly expects it that's four I think the Missouri folks expect it they would have made it last year had there been a 12 team so that's five I don't know that there's a lot of years where LSU folks don't expect something like this and and being in the top 11 so that's six and I think we can throw the Tennessee folks in there who you're just talking about because I think well they're not you know they're not going to just shut it down if they don't make the playoff this year I think there's a lot of people look at that schedule and say 10 and two that's doable so that is seven out of the 16 teams of the SEC with the expectation of making the playoff that's seven JD they're not getting more than three or four in no I'm glad that you're that you're breaking this hard truth man there's only 12 spots for the SC to get seven and then also one of those spots of the 12 is going to be a G5 team so we'll call it 11 power conference spots four for the Big 10 including the ACC and the Big 12 like I don't know I don't see I'm glad you talked about Tennessee there though because Vegas is also saying hey over under nine and a half 10's attainable Andy I think 10 and two gets you in depending on who you are it's and it depends on the 10 and the two but yeah there's a path for Tennessee or if they split Alabama and Georgia let's say they beat one of Alabama or Georgia and then and then lose another one somewhere in there I I definitely think they're in the playoff the question is are they going to Atlanta I think that's the the other question and the the the question I have too is if a two- loss SEC team makes it to Atlanta and then loses a third in Atlanta does that knock them out of the playoff or do they just kind of move down the chain maybe they go on the road for their first game instead of being at home or instead of having the buy that's that's really what we're talking about and and the mechanics of this are so hard to get used to because we're just I I keep saying this constantly on my show we have to retrain our brains because we're we're trained to think in a four team playoff mentality we're trained to think if you don't go undefeated or have one loss you're done that's not the case there will be two lost teams that have a chance of winning National Title there are potentially going to be three lost teams that can make the playoff no I'm 100% with you I think the the expectation of this expanded playoff for a lot of these SEC teams is okay well you expanded the field we would have been it last year why can't we go make it this year uh I don't want to put you on the spot too heavily here so I'll I'll go first is there a team that you think in the SEC is setting themsel up for maybe a little bit of disappointment compared to expectations for me it's Missouri last year four one score wins it's hard to bottle up that magic and take it to the next season you lose Cody shider is there one that you feel comfortable or okay with saying hey I love you but truth is is in some ways a way to love a person is there some uh some fan base here that like just pump the brakes a little bit pump the breaks a little bit well Missouri and Missouri fans got all over me when I I did my post spring portal ranking because I believe I had Missouri just out of it and they were really mad and they said well don't you know we have Brady cook back and Luther Burton back I said yeah but you don't have Darius Robinson back you don't have inis rraw back you don't have Chris a drained back like it's the defense I'm worried about I'm not worried about it all the offense at all like the offense is going to be fine so until we see that defense which by the way also lost his coordinator to LSU I was going to say and the the Royals nominated you know brw award finalist dn's coach to LSU like those are the things that I'm worried about offensively I think Missouri's going to be just fine now Missouri has a schedule that I feel like is pretty favorable so I can see a path to Missouri making the playoff but it will require that defense to be pretty good connected to that I'll throw another one at you please the expectations at LSU are pretty high they're not National Championship High I don't think the LSU fans are are that unrealistic after what happened last season but the fact of the matter is you lost a Heisman Trophy winning quarterback two first round receivers the offense probably isn't going to be as good even if it is still very good it was amazing last year but it had to be amazing because that was one of the worst defenses we've ever seen is the defense going to be so much better that it helps you overcome what you lost on offense that's the big question Blake Baker comes in as the coordinator you saw them trying to get guys out of the portal on the D line they're still pretty thin on the D line don't know what the secondary is going to look like don't know how they're going to use Harold Perkins will they use him in a way that that allows him to do what he does best or will they do what they did last year and essentially you know handicap one of the the best players in college football we'll find out we'll find out but they have a very hard schedule and we do not know what that defense is going to look like I think the USC game is going to be wild because we still may not know what either defense looks like after that game like what happens JD if that USC LSU game is a track meet is it because both defenses still stink or is it because both offenses are awesome and when those defenses play more normal offenses they'll look fine we won't know but it's gonna be fun to watch oh it's GNA be I mean the fact they got on Sunday too like that one being prime time Las Vegas I said it on our show too like it's going to be the best movie in Vegas since the hangover is what that's going to be so that that'll be a lot of fun but no I'm glad you said that I think the tough part with LSU too is like there is so many blanks that you have to fill in that are pretty sizable blanks like the blank of who's the new OC Joe Sloan how does does it just you know mix and match okay we're good to go Jaden Daniels Garrett USM like no problem you lost three first round players on that offense even if the LSU defense takes a a step forward it's like okay well you started at allowing 30 points a game how much better can you be from that is it 26 points a game is it 25 Point like are are you making a sizable leap to where it makes a difference in a win total um I don't know I don't know can I throw one at you here Andy I got I got a hard Truth for you you ready so I'm thinking a little bit more retroactively because whenever we talk Michigan the mentions fill up the comment section fills up with they cheated their way to a national championship that should be vacated and I'm just here to say like whatever you thought about Michigan the past couple of Seasons or whatever you want to say about Conor stallions that's fine they did not cheat their way to that National Championship because they didn't have their head coach for the most important games of the Season being Penn State and Ohio State and then they had to go and beat Bama and beat Washington so during the toughest stretch of their season they had the most watchful eye of promise from the powers that be onto how they were following the rules and what they weren't doing sign stealing wise and even if they didn't have that oversight other teams were mixing up their signals or changing the way they were doing things procedurally like Michigan and trying to water down their national title to Me Andy just makes no sense it's a hard truth Michigan did not cheat their way to a national championship yeah once that came out everybody's eyes were on them the hardest part of their season was still yet to come they played their toughest regular season games without their head coach yeah I I think I think we can be fine with that I think if you're an Ohio State fan you're going to be mad about it but you're more mad that your team just keeps losing to Michigan and that's what you're really actually mad about but yeah this is it if if that is what you think if you if that is all you've got to hold over Michigan right now look inward look inward because yeah the path got considerably tougher because everybody changed everything up on them and again Jim Harbaugh did not coach them the last three games of the regular season like I think what you did is you found you found out that Chiron Moore was definitely your guy through that period I mean that the the onfield part of it because that's when when somebody ascends to the head coaching role you don't know how they're going to handle the behind the scenes part of it and you especially if they've never been a head coach before do not know how they're going to handle the onfield part of it shron Moore was acting as the head coach and as the offensive coordinator in the biggest games of the Season He adjusted the scheme against Penn State because they were having trouble protecting JJ McCarthy and ran like 28 times in a row and yes I know there was a pass in there that was called back because of a penalty but he made that adjustment to ensure they won that game a tough game on the road then he goes and it basically calls a perfect game against Ohio State M think about how hard that is you're only in your your that would be his third and a half game I think and no it was his fourth fourth game because remember Harbaugh didn't coach also remember Haron didn't coached three games in the beginning of the season so this was this was not an easy path and then like you said beat Alabama straight up at the Rose bow beat Washington handily in the national title game no it what they did was absolutely fine let me let me throw one more at you please do so this was something that came out in it came out on Wednesday so this is from John Ying who was he he works at bmgm he's he's a data and PR guy so he tweeted that the buffalos of Colorado have moved from a plus 20,000 to a plus 12,500 to win the college football playoff because so many people are putting Futures down on Colorado to win the national title all of you whove done that already you've wasted your money you may as well have lit it on fire we talked about this on my show today that was incredibly stupid why on Earth would you waste your they are not going to win the national title that is impossible I am happy to say that it's not happening now that said I will offer you an alternative JD I looked on FanDuel Colorado's odds to win the Big 12 plus 4,000 whoa still a really good payday if you want to put a couple bucks down on that well guess what that's possible they might be able to do that if they are a little bit better on both lines of scrimmage they could be very competitive in the Big 12 this year that is certainly possible maybe a bet a future bet on can they make the playoff which is essentially the same as can they win the Big 12 that's possible but if you're GNA put money down like if you want to just give money away find a good cause don't give it to a casino because if you're betting on Colorado to win the national championship this year you are essentially just handing the money to the casino and that's the unfortunate part I think it's fortunate and unfortunate with the way that Colorado has blown up the fortunate part it has it's brought a ton of people to the sport that otherwise wouldn't have been interested in in college football it's like hey Deion Sanders is coaching I love Deion Sanders I want to see this this is phenomenal I'll watch that however thinking Colorado is going to win the national championship Andy as you just mentioned is just like y' they won one game a season ago like they don't go from one win to four wins to winning a national championship that's not typically the way this thing works I like what you said about them potentially competing for the Big 12 I can get maybe a little bit more uh more on board with that but I think the tough part with Colorado too when you have these fans who haven't been as in tune with college football it's like if you even say that Colorado's going to lose a game it's like you're a hater you don't believe and it's like well no I just think maybe there's a there's a natural cycle here that might be a little bit more expected based on the other however many thousand teams we've seen over the course of the last four to five seasons 10 season as I told Philip Dukes when he was trying to explain to me that that Dion is just building the house differently than anybody else has built the house or building the building differently than anybody else has build the building like I've seen a thousand buildings built and I know which ones fell down and which one stayed up so that's that's the thing and a lot of this is also understanding how the playoff Works especially now okay so let's say Colorado does win the Big 12 which by the way if you took my advice and put a future down you made some good money on that they get a buy probably because they'd probably be the third or the fourth seed but then they're going to have to play three really tough games to win the national title like remember what Oregon did to them last year they'd have to play three teams like that and beat them to win the national title that's not going to happen I don't like normally I don't make any Grand pronouncements that's not my style I'm happy to make that one that won't happen it's tough very very tough for uh for the folks uh that are Colorado fans watching this watching this program Andy you parlayed perfectly into a point that I want to make my hard truth the college football playoff expanding is not going to give us March Madness Cinderella stories we we we are exiting out of that era where TCU makes the national championship and Washington as good as they were making the national championship what you just said about Colorado how they would have to play three teams like an Oregon to have a chance to make the national championship like we are now moving into an era where if you are that G5 school not that you can't win a game heck maybe you can win two games but to find a TCU of sorts in the national championship yet again I also feel comfortable that's not going to happen that's not going to happen because of how much steeper that this road got the road got a lot wider there's a lot more room for people on the road but it got way steeper way more treacherous way more terrain to ultimately make the national championship let alone win the national champ chionship not going to happen I'm glad you brought this up because we talked about this on my show today so if you want to go back to a deeper discussion of who the TCU or the Washington of 2024 could be go watch my show it's on YouTube on On Demand on the on3 sports YouTube channel uh but I thought about that a lot because I was thinking about TCU 2022 and their path to the national title game and I was like okay let if if we put that into the the system that is now in existence what would that have looked like and so TCU would have been the five seat because remember they lost the Big 12 championship game to Kansas State K State would have been the four seed Utah would have been the three because they were the Pack 12 champ so TCU would have been the five seed and they would have been the five seed we know that because they were number three in the final cfp rankings and Ohio State was number four so TC would have been your five seed they would have played Tain in their first first game so they would have hosted Tain now we did see Tain go to the DFW metroplex and beat USC in the Cotton Bowl that year that would have been a very tough game for TCU don't know if they would have won or not but I definitely think they could have won it the next game is probably against Utah excuse me the next game is definitely against Utah because Utah would have been the four seat or I'm sorry it would have been K State the next game would have been against K State in a rematch of the Big 12 championship game that game went to overtime certainly TCU could win that game so even if they but then they win those two guess who's probably waiting for them in the semis the Georgia Bulldogs remember what happened when TCU played Georgia the national championship game you could have played that game a hundred times and TCU would have lost a 100 times that's the problem that's where you come in now I will push back on the Washington thing last year's Washington team I think in this version of the playoff could still absolutely make it and I'm trying to remember exactly what their path would been uh their first game would have been they would have had a buy and then they they would have been the two seeds so they would have played the winner I believe it was a 710 game which was Ohio State and Penn State last year's Washington team absolutely should have beaten either of the version of Ohio State or Penn State they would have seen so that Washington probably would have been favored in that game then in the semis they likely would have faced Texas they beat Texas in the actual semis and it wasn't like a fluky thing so I could have could see last year's Washington team actually being okay in this year's playoff but a team like 2022 TCU I don't think they can make it to the final and and that gives like so I give you a hint of of who I was talking about this year who who that might be because you know I I think if we're talking about Old Miss or Missouri who didn't make the playoff last year but would have made it in a 12 team system I don't think that would surprise anybody I don't think Florida State making a run for the national title would surprise anybody nor anybody at the top of the Big 10 so in the ACC though NC State watch NC State watch the NC State Tennessee game week two watch NC State at Clemson because there's a good chance NC State could be in the ACC title game could be the ACC Champion like they are going to be competitive in that conference this year and that's a team that plays good solid defense veteran quarterback and Grayson McCall like maybe they get in that situation and they can win some games the ACC in the Big 12 is going to be Electric television I'm with you though on Washington with Michael penck Jr the more I think about it all those skill players what they did to Texas they're probably a team that could make run in the 12 team but like I think about the G5 Cinderella or the TCU I think I think that era is over Andy one more that I want to give to you that's kind of like a retroactive hard truth when we talk about Nick Sab and his retirement I think a lot of folks that kind of flew over that story say oh nil pushed him out that was why he didn't like nil and he said okay I can't win with this I'm going to leave and I think when we go deeper into that Chris low story Nick sabin's not saying okay nil was my was my handicap I couldn't find a way to get around that and win national championships like this past season he came a play away from extending the game against the national champions Michigan I think what he was saying was listen I don't want to deal with nil I'm getting older if Sabin had wanted to keep coaching if Sabin had wanted to embraced the nil era even further and jumped into it like Alabama's still adding top to of Alabama still Alabama as long as Sabin says I want to be here so I sat in Nick sabin's office in 2017 that's just a cool statement hang that's hang on time out that's a very cool sentence I want everyone to acknowledge okay go ahead okay uh we talked about that the end of his coaching career and he said I'll be gone before I let it go down basically I will know when I am slipping and I will make sure I'm out of there before I let Alabama's program slide at all and I think you look at it Alabama was very much in the mix for the national title last year you know if they stopped Michigan on that last Drive of Regulation they're in the national title game it certainly would have been a good match up against Washington that would have been a really good game Alabama certainly could have won it I don't think this was a case as you said of it just being inil if this was 20 years earlier and Nick Savin was 20 years younger he would have just adapted there was no more adaptable coach than Nick Sabin remember the SEC changed the rules about who you could sign to stop Nick Sabin all he did was adapt like every time they tried to change something on Nick Sabin he adapted and figured it out I think it is more what you said where he's like okay I've adapted so many times I've done this so many times I just don't feel like doing it this time I I've earned the right to not do it this time and I'm going to hang it up and he hung it up because he felt like okay I might slip eventually and I'm not going to let anybody see that happen I'm not going to do that on this stage that's not what I'm about he was very clear and he said that to me he said it to multiple other people through the years I will be gone before I let it slip and I I think we saw that play out because right now you look at Alabama's roster you look at what kayin dbor took over very well positioned to compete for national title right now Nick sa didn't let it slip he left a great program for the next guy and I think he he was going to make sure he did that hey I don't want to go down a rabbit hole here I cannot wait to see him on college game day like I'm a college game Day nerd that was my Saturday morning cartoons as a kid like that is going to be electrifying I cannot wait for that oh it's it's going to be awesome I I just he is so prepared and so meticulous and I heard stories about ESPN staffers before the draft saying man this guy's just wearing us out wanting all this different video Yeah welcome to working with Nick Savin welcome welcome to Nick sav's level of preparation it's it's a little bit different level than what you're used to yeah I can't wait and he's starting to show us his sense of humor which you know his players saw that the people who worked with him saw that when he wasn't when he wasn't chewing their asses but I think everybody's going to get to know his sense of humor which is very dry and very fun going to be a lot of going to be a lot of I on uh be a lot of IES on the on the game day set it should be a lot of fun this fall Andy appreciate you man best in the business thanks for making some time to deliver some truth serum to the masses whether they like it or not hard truth is still truth and truth in the end I think is love that's right that's exactly that's a great way of putting it JD so we've just loved on you all day good stuff Andy appreciate you man we'll do it again real soon hey y'all thanks so much for watching subscribe to the channel here to make sure you don't miss 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