Fantasy Film Room: Expect offenses to use more TEs, less WRs in 2024 | Yahoo Fantasy Forecast

Intro [Music] it's Thursday September 5th I'm Matt Haron welcome to the Yahoo fantasy forecast it is hell of a day to talk ball and join me to do that for episode one of the fantasy film room here on the yaho fantasy forecast feed it is the one and only Nate Ty Nate what's going on buddy ah man I now that when you say fantasy film room and before the show you made the BoJack Horseman crossover episode joke is the the title of the show is like a a tag team in wrestling come together where you have your gimmick and my gimmick come together it's the fantasy film room this is just it's perfect like so you just hey like this is our gimmicks we're coming together and we get to talk about this every single week I love it because we get to kind of do a one two every week like we as we're potting on Tuesdays during the week and then we get an idea we go yeah let's let's hit that up tomorrow it's gonna be great I can't wait for the season to start I can't wait for ball to start that's what's going to be so exciting about all this yeah our real pre-show conversation was mostly just the two of us being when can we get some you know when do we get the games in like and we know when they're they're starting but like my God I'm ready for new data I'm ready for things to react to because this is essentially our 100th preview episode just probably The debut of Fantasy Film Room even me and you together at this point since you know we started football 301 since I've started having on you on this podcast a lot so we've potted together plenty already at this point I've certainly and you have uh otherwise too previewed the season about a billion times but we're going to do kind of one last season look Ahad here for episode one of the fantasy film room but let me explain kind of the flow of this show and what people can expect every single week we're basically going to break this in to three parts the first part I'm going to pick sort of a trending topic from the fantasy world uh for Nate and I to both dive into the film and sort of from an X's and O's perspective try to tell you why something is happening um I think that the biggest thing for Fantasy analysts and analyst as a whole is to try to inform the fan like hey not just like what is happening any anyone can hop on a mic and tell you this guy scored this many points and it was good or it was bad you know uh but we want to we want to dive into why and the process of that and especially especially some of these big picture things and we're going to have one of those topics today I think it's going to be even better again once we have games to react to when uh some player that you or I Nate is inevit we're inevitably super high on has some you know poor showing in week one it's going to be great to be able to break that down uh here on this particular pod so kind of that's more so what we're going to do but today we'll take a very big picture in part two this is where Nate is just going to absolutely cook uh he he's going to have one thing that he's nering out on uh again it's more of a season preview type thing in this one but it'll be more so game based once they kick off and then one thing he wants people to like because if I know my guy Nate Ty you love some weird stuff man and some things that and some some things that other people maybe aren't that into but you're going to try to in this segment to convince people uh that they should like this thing that you like a little bit fantasy hipster of you which I think will be pretty cool and then in the final part we're just going to break down the Thursday night football game and uh do some props do some big picture talk again but that's sort of how the the flow of this show will be every single week yeah as as someone that tries to get everyone in my inner circle or even like I would even say Inner Circle I'll say medium circle into board games and into schlocky movies sometimes a little schlocky plus I'll say and really just going no watch it's good I trust me trust me it's good you know total Clockwork Orange Eyes Open putting eye drops in making sure that they see what I'm seeing like do you see that whole South Park segment right there that's exactly how I feel with some of this that's going through the year but I'm excited it's a great way also like you said this pod to go oh yeah we're really high on this guy and he doesn't have a good week and go this is why I was not wrong mhm yes and not my fault it's not my fault you guys have to listen for five minutes that's it and I just put the chart together My Own Dentist system you know just to make sure that everything's good but uh no I'm very very excited for that I'm excited for you guys for listening to this vinyl record that I'm really into and then you know you can smile and Nod maybe you do like that note that this musician hit or this play that this offensive coordinator called but I'm glad we get to do this kind of tie it in maybe some tangible stuff that you can use for Fantasy purposes as of current NFL Network guy Nate Ty I'll say is a former we're doing two former NFL Network callbacks from my days there which was one you do truly sound like a fantasy hipster uh Matt franciskovich my old buddy and I did used to do a segment on TV called the fantasy hipsters where we basically like listen to this vinyl record and cold brew and IPA and all the typical hipster layup jokes uh with my big rimmed glasses at the time that I'm still have right here yeah I still have the damn uh head shot on Yahoo I haven't worn my glasses whole time and it's it's good no it's it's horrific um and then the second thing is we used to play a game on the old podcast called has Harmon seen it because uh you haven't quite figured this out about me yet you will over the course of the year my movie literacy is very very very low so uh you you'll have to culture me throughout the course of this season as we try to culture the listeners uh yeah especially coming from my old co-host Robert who was like sometimes IID throw some at him and he actually would pick up what I was dropping and I would always just be like God dang like this is not like man I thought I threw that 102 M hour fast ball value and he he'd still know it so this is this is good I actually like this because I I even said I've found this with Charles too Charles's movie filmatography is all over the place as well so yeah Bob and a weav with the references I I have to look at maybe box office and then then go from there with all my uh my movie references go start at the top and maybe not go with you know Clockwork Orange or you know something a little bit more obscure in the 9s that is more up up up my alley well I always say when people give me um flak for not watching enough movies I always say I don't have time to go see films I'm too busy watching the film baby so that is a perfect transition into our show today as we get into episode one of uh the fantasy film Matt's trending fantasy topic: NFL offenses are getting heavier room so my trending topic for us to talk about today and again this is more macro than I will usually go with this cuz like I said I do want to focus this on underperforming or overperforming Trends uh once we kind of get game data here we get actual current game film to watch but I wanted to talk about just trying to pitch right down the middle here for Nate Ty I wanted to talk about teams going trending towards more heavy personnel and how that impacts fantasy players because I do think this is a really big deal so I looked at a lot of first down data for this to just try to get teams intent with with some of this stuff here so last year in 2023 only five teams used 11 personnel on at least 60% of their first down snaps those teams were the Rams the Panthers the Bengals the Steelers and the Colts pretty mixed bag honestly in terms of uh offensive efficiency you got one team uh as s vetri pointed out on the show yesterday averaged 4.1 yards per play last year which is not just the worst in the NFL last year it was the worst the last four years buy a lot typically the Le the lowest in the NFL Nate is like 4.6 4.7 the Panthers set some new all-time lows last year so uh and then you have the Rams good offense good offense in Cincinnati uh you know like I said mixed bag with the Steelers and the Colts and things like that but this was down from 12 teams in 2022 and one of the things that I looked at this on the inverse here is that it's honestly some of these really good teams who are making the most or perhaps best use of heavy on again this is just first down data but these Trends typically hold for these teams throughout all Downs here the Packers on first down ranked third with 32% of their snaps coming in 12 Personnel the Chiefs led the NFL and as you and I know this from our Super Bowl conversation Nate with 9% of their plays in 13 personnel and they were also top 10 top 12 in in 12 Personnel the Dolphins the 49ers Ravens and the Texans were the only teams at or above 29% or more in 21 personnel which is two backs and one tight end so the fullbacks are back baby and the 49ers and Ravens also were top three in 22 personnel which is just one wide receiver two backs two tight ends so I say all this to say Nate uh to ask you why are teams moving more in this direction from a schematic standpoint since it does seem like they are it it's the first thing is when you are an 11 personnel uh unless you do and this will get to what the Rams have done the last few years that much has been made about what the Rams have done with their 11 personnel but there are pros and cons of everything you do in football whether it's the Personnel whether it's the formation you use whether it's the defensive call you have it's the front you have it's the running back that you have in the game like every little thing matters and has positives and negatives so when you're an 11 personnel with three receivers you limit the Run menu that you can get to and what that does is it makes you predictable and that is death in the NFLs being predict is you want to have you don't want to have Tendencies or if you do have a tendency you want to make sure you set it up like hey it's coming and then you break the tendency once the season goes along so what 11 personnel was started to do was defenses are very very smart in the NFL these days all this data that we use right now for offense defenses use it and they just go they use the same exact stuff that these Trends Tendencies so when they said oh you're an 11 personnel you're in this formation say the Bengals or something like that okay we know that zones coming this Zone run okay then we can call this play and 80% of the time we'll be right it's you're betting chances here you know probabilities so when you get into 12 with two tight ends it old schoolwise it used to be you had a big blocking Burly y tight end and then the receiving tight end was kind of a hybrid guy you know not not so much a true receiving tight end guys have gotten lighter at that position more athletic you don't see the Y tight end anymore but there are some of those coming back and this is kind of what has trickled up from college receiving tight ends are kind of coming back that 235 pound to 245 pound guy you might not see this reflected in fantasy all the time some guys yes like a Tre McBride or something like that but most of the times I'm saying these guys are more the secondary roles the auxiliary roles but that's it's a reflection of you're trying to make the defense or or be unpredictable to the defense now we have two tight ends we can do a bunch of different runs with two tight ends because now we have a 235 lb guy blocking a 230lb linebacker instead of a 200 lb receiver 190lb receiver trying to block that 230lb linebacker that 215 PB safety it's weight like it really is it's just it's all about size matching size so when you get to 12 Personnel you get to 21 Personnel you are bringing back the adjuster and this is kind of a little uh uh kind of football I know football 301 but football 101 or football history is their you know we always talk about the X the Z the Y XYZ XYZ that is traditional two receivers tight end the adjuster role is traditionally the fullback that is why it's called the F when you write it up on a chalkboard but as football expanded and P Personnel changed late in the 80s especially with Joe Gibbs the F became the second tight end and that was to counter LT do a whole bunch of stuff make stuff more balanced then then we got to three wide receivers and that became the F so what mik football is it's Al it's all in Cycles is that the F the adjuster has moved back into the back field has moved back into the wing position the Rams were doing 11 personnel and using Cooper cup as the F quote unquote but he was a tight end sometimes or running back or or a fullback sometimes a slot receiver sometimes that was that whole 11 and a half personel so what I think is happening is that there are more of these tight ends that are available that are actually decent players that can play snaps for you 20 snaps a game that also coaches have become more uh they've expanded their minds on how to use them blocking they don't try to ask them to block a 270 lb DN they say hey let's just have you go to the second level so as coordinators have gotten creative as personnel has changed as all as they've realized that there's benefits to not being predictable because now you're dictating things with this Personnel grouping that's all it is as it just kind of again Football goes in cycles and now we're where're there's a ton of receivers and because there's a ton of receivers defenses know how to counter that better so okay how do we zag while everyone else is doing that okay let's get the tight end back on the field yeah I mean I think that was a perfect breakdown both from like why it makes sense from a schematic standpoint then the cycle of the league because you know it this isn't necessarily reflected in fantasy in that there are there's not a lot of bcow backs right but there are a lot of good and efficient Run games and that's where it's been sort of like okay yeah the lions are one of the best Run games in the NFL but they're playing they're playing two running backs and you know that will even I I feel like there's a future scenario not to get PE people are already on you know week one tilt not to get people you know jir Gibbs Dynasty Bros on like two years from now tilt I can almost guarantee you that um David Montgomery at some Point's Gonna Leave the Lions and everybody's like oh jir Gibbs like bcow back time and they'll probably draft another one in the third like a David Montgomery in the third round and just keep that moving now they can afford you know they're signing guys now but uh you know when they sign mon it was a lot of guys on cheap deals they could afford to get like a Pros pro version of that they'll probably just look for the next version of that in the draft because that's just the way NFL teams treat their running backs these days and you know that cycle of that I don't know if that's ever going to be broken so that while it hasn't trickled into that respect we do have a lot of efficient and creative Run games and and that has created ecosystems where guys like Kiren Williams can come out of nowhere with the LA Rams right right where um you know I think Jonathan Taylor's in line for a huge year if he can dominate you know he might be one of those of a Bell cow back but um you know other guys have cycled in and out of there over the years so that's part of it you know I know we're going to talk about in your second part of the show here one of the teams that has really jumped up from a run game perspective leaning into some of these Trends and you know one back who might actually I think be have go down as a pretty decent fantasy value this year but again that's in part two I want to focus on the tight end part of this year for a second before we talk about wide receivers because you mentioned that this hasn't necessarily been uh reflected in fantasy I would say that the fact that we have four guys this year who generally operated in tier one at the tight end position does make this a little bit different because typically it's just been Kelsey he's that movable chess piece as the tight end but now we do kind of have like leaport is a little bit of that guy Trey McBride is that guy Mark Andrews I think was a value all draft season because he remains that guy and is still I mean I know he had had a little bit of an off season like he was in the car accident he he was kind of questionable for a while rough he's had a rough year he's had a rough year he had a rough year but it sounds like he's going to be okay for week one you know the game will break down later and again I think he's a tier one tight end there's also guys in in my second tier you know Jake Ferguson has kind of become this guy Kyle pittz again banged up coming into week one because of course why not uh he's he should be that guy David and joku is kind of developed into a allaround tight end so there has been guys and Dalton Kade of course with the bills uh we will'll break them down later there are more options I think at tight end even if it's not even if it's not as deep as we'd like it's probably deeper in the NFL than it's deeper in fantasy but maybe in three years that's that looks different yeah it it's the pie is getting sliced more and and so that you know as teams will use 11 a bunch and they'll use 12 a bunch okay well now that's third receiver second tight end okay they kind of eat into these other each other shares and stuff like that so that's another thing too is that as teams to use so many different personnels is that the elite guys almost become more Elite as because because they are going to get the primary focus no matter what and then the secondary guys kind of chop each other up a little bit that's kind of how I'm trying to think of like a good example of that but I mean the team that I always just think of as the Cowboys because I just think CD is just going to eat so many and then Ferguson's going to get a bunch but then it's like you know schoon maker is probably going to take some from cooks if Schoonmaker ever sees the field if he's ever healthy but it's like but if he takes a little bit from maybe cooks and maybe whoever is the third receiver that they're trying to trot out this week you know like that is like that's where the kind of secondary kind of options go away but I I think it's as those get divvied up it makes the number one guy if you have one not and I'm not just saying that you're number one target I'm saying the top six receivers in the league or Travis Kelce that becomes even more important as they take the primary focus also say you mentioned Le pora and K too when I was talking about kind of the creativity of how coaches are using them those two tight ends are what come to mind mind as far as what Joe Brady and Ben Johnson did with them and I don't want to kind of take away too much but uh from what I'm going to say later but with Ben Johnson how he used leura and amanra St Brown and the what I call inverted looks where amanra St Brown is in the tight end spot lorta is split out as a receiver you know because St Brown can block and he's pretty good you know playing in line and doing all the power slot stuff and leor is athletic enough to win one-on-one on the outside because he could beat safeties and beat DB oneon-one that made that all valid but that used to be back in the day like all right I it was just how Travis C is used ISO receiver you're kind of an X receiver now they're doing these two-man combinations he's not getting asked to block and do all the stuff that I thought would limit him a little bit early in his career they're being just understanding of what they're really good at and what they're okay we're goingon to hide what they're bad at I know this this is coaching 101 but it's nice to see actual freaking coaches doing it and actually doing all the off season speak they actually did it in practice so it's expand again it's they've expanded their minds and how they use guys and it's expanded my mind and how I evaluate tight ends and other positions too because now I think there's more roles and more room and more paths for these guys to be valid um players and valuable players just real life and fantasy well that's the reason that I know a lot of us on the outside it seemed like it was rumored to be potentially true that like all the Rams would love to get Brock Bowers right because they could do some of that stuff with both Cooper cup and pukan AA is the the dream it was the dream like as the power slot player and then do some of that you know leaport to Brock Bowers thing as you mentioned there in your example so um I I love that again I think it's it's G to open up more for these top tight ends at some point to potentially be more of a stable position my pitch with the tight end position in fantasy has always been pretty clear because there was at least some talk the last years about maybe we should we should merge tight end and and wide receiver cuz it's too hard there are not enough good tight ends one that's a quitters mentality two uh yeah we are not soft on this fantasy podcast we are not soft uh number two yeah get try harder okay you want you want life to be easier pay up for one of the top guys that's you want your life to be simpler you pay up for those luxuries anyways not to go down that path again but it's all about just restoring the middle class here and I think this movement is part of that uh that's a reason that one of the teams that leans into these heavy Personnel packages the Arizona Cardinals why Trey McBride is really good and they still drafted another tight end in the third round so I think there will be more splashy impact from these ancillary players also from fullbacks too like fullbacks don't matter in fantasy but you know you do see teams like Miami and obviously San Francisco make use of the fullback I found it interesting that jonu Smith is listed as a fullback on the Dolphins early depth chart is he actually yeah and I I don't know if that means anything because I actually do think Janu is like a very interesting deep deep deep deep deep sleeper at tight end in this offense I just wonder if how they're going to align everything there so it's going to make for some interesting ancillary pieces that's how the tight end position is going to be impacted but I want to before talking about some specific teams here to watch out for with this I wanted to hit on one point that you brought up there about Target concentration for the wide receivers here because wide receivers of money position in fantasy it's it's super important and this trend while it takes one wide receiver off the field data shows that the fewer wide receivers are on the field the more both efficient and highly targeted your top receivers can be and Miami is an outlier example but they're the perfect example of two guys who dominate the target share and are you know Waddles coming off a injury plagued season but think two years ago when both those guys like pushed for 60% something of the target share and were outrageously efficient that's what matters here is that it's going to take some wide receivers off the field it's going to make your third and your fourth wide receiver on the depth chart uh probably not fantasy viable but it's going to increase the productivity of your top receivers which is why I have found myself Nate when building teams this off season so inclined to be like the hero RB build where I want like two or three receivers in the first three rounds because man like those guys at the top of the position are going to be more they're goingon to be bigger differen makers than ever they are it's I know it's almost become the receivers don't matter argument in in the sense that that there's so many good once that the Baseline higher but then if you have those true dudes like I like you're just saying it's like the concentrated targets oh my God that's just they're on a whole another tier of themselves this is also in like kind of football makeup and and certain teams it's like there's public discourse about certain positions on certain teams I'm like oh my God we can barely even get a national conversation about the Titans and everybody knows who the Eagles third receiver is and everybody knows who the Bears second or third defensive end is like because they just oh my God we need this guy the the Eagles like they signed Julio last year for a spot um they had zakus in there and they just trade for Dodson I always just thought that was such a weird team building exercise for me because you have Devonte Smith you have AJ Brown you have Dallas GD now you have saquon too can catch passes you don't need a dude at slot you need a Dirty Work auxiliary guy that is that's why Zaki actually kind of fit for me in that role but that was I I I just that that's from a team building perspect persective because that's when you already have guys you don't need every guy to be a bucket getter yeah right like you need a guy that sets freaking screens you need a guy that's gonna play D like that is uh uh I think just from a team Builder perspective that we see from this that again it doesn't get always reflected in in uh in fantasy but if the team building goes right where they get the auxiliary guys that makes sense it opens up more for the star guys to be Stars so sometimes I get frustrated with some some team building with some guys they add I'm like that the idea the bills did this for a little bit um spoilers but I'm going to talk about the flip side I think they've learned their lessons but I I think some teams there was a disconnect of what they thought they needed and what they actually needed and um it's nice sometimes it's refreshing sometimes when you see teams actually understand what they do need like Alec engle's not going to get 40 targets but Alec inold is going to be is a very valuable member of the Dolphins offense actually I'll say one of the most important ones I know obviously I'll Tyreek and all that stuff but and he's useful when he does get when he does get targeted smart he's athletic yeah oh jonno Smith by the way great shout out because they're already giving him freaking reverses in the pre-season crazy he can't wait to use him uh yeah there's gonna be he's not GNA get a high usage rate but he's gonna they're GNA be highly he's gonna be like a sniper usage it's like one or two Touches for a touchdown in 30 yards it's like that's what I feel like his stats are going to be low usage high yield uh usage is is what we're looking for from a player like that I would say the receiver example of this and obviously this team took a first round receiver this year but the 49ers also paid Jan Jennings he's the great he's a great example of this that is never gonna you know he's never he's certainly not a bucket get or anything like that you know the the targets are going to go to Debo and to iuk and to CMC and to KD but you need a third down sometimes like Joan Jennings is reliable he's where he's supposed to be so uh he's obviously I think kind of the peak receiver example for that and you're never let me tell you what if you have to start Joan Jennings on your fantasy team your fantasy team is effed all right that that but but he's important to the 49ers and he allows those other guys to be who they are yes yeah absolutely he's a he's a three and D guy in basketball he stands in the corner he might only shoot three shots a game but he's gonna make two of them yeah and he's gonna play some great d i great glad he roped in jwan Jennings I feel like I haven't brought up Jan Jennings in a while and I feel like he should be brought brought up every single week probably the best Dirty Work guy in the league I love Johan Jennings but that's a great great example it's just that not every third receivers the same not every second tight end's the same like technically the second tight end for the Cardinals tip Ryman or Elijah or Elijah Higgins is they are the blocker and so they come in to be the blocker and Trey McBride gets to do all the fun stuff typically base down number one tight end is the blocker so again it's the the roles are different from Team to team which is you know Mark Andrews and Isaiah likele totally different pairing of two tight ends like where I actually think they're both valid receivers if like say Andrew went down I would still think likely could be okay in a pinch yeah it's just that you again these team makeups are just wildly different let's quickly just hit on a few teams maybe we haven't mentioned that makes sense to pay attention to uh before we transition to your team in the second half because that's actually a good team to talk about this as well but we'll save them if you can't figure it out yet it is the Buffalo Bill since we've several times um but we T talk you know we don't need to talk about like the Dolphins and the 49ers and and you really really even the Ravens but um where are some other teams that maybe will make use of this heavier personnel and how this might uh impact some of the outside receivers there we've talked plenty about the Cardinals uh the Rams actually might start experimenting with some more two tight end looks uh they had kobby Parkinson or they signed him um they have Allen who they're really high on and we'll see how when higgy comes back but I know they were you know that Bowers thing was very real we you already talked about it but they I think they've had the ideas about it um implementing it more the Chiefs I think they're going to crank it up that's why they went for Wy that's why they're bringing guys in uh I mean you even uh the Packers are on the Forefront of a lot of stuff shoot I don't want to spoil it already but uh the Steelers are going to be because Arthur Smith are going to be I think they might base out of three tight ends uh because they they're trotting two out there every play and they have some size with Fri M and Washington and everybody so that run game wise that's why I'm excited about them is because they have the size and the bully balless and the Arthur Smith of that offense so that that's why um just kind of just to think who El let's hit I want to hit on two of those teams expand a little bit you mentioned you mentioned the Steelers like I I've been sort of I'm in line with ADP on George Pickins I actually drafted him my final draft last night as my think fourth receiver because again I went with a heavy receiver build um he's the guy that I think will probably be volatile that's just one the nature of playing a run heavy offense and two I think it's the nature of his game and I think it will probably always be that way but he is in line to have a monstrous Target share how that might end up being 120 targets at like a 28% clip because of how they're going to play but he should not only will he probably be in two receiver sets he's probably going to be in like you mentioned 13 Personnel like just one wide receiver on the field and as much as I like fmuth and and the whole Darnell Washington thing is interesting your top Target getter is going to be George Pickins on a variety of those plays so he's interesting there and then with the Packers guys I feel like you know it's everybody I know it's just I know we're going to talk about that game cuz we're going to preview the eag Packers game a little bit briefly but man I I just two of these guys are going to be like complete not zeros in fantasy but they're going to be impossible to play just because they are GNA play these two tight ends and I think they're gonna I don't even know if like Musgrave or craft will emerge as fantasy starters but they're going to be these potentially low usage high yield plays like the routes that they can get them on um to me like and even even a guy like Jaden Reed who I know you and I both really like uh I have him at wide receiver 34 heading into the season in almost any other situation A guy that did what he did last year has the reception perception profile that he does and plays on a good offense with a good quarterback I'd probably have that guy going into his second season ranked in the mid to you know maybe even high 20s because he's just that good of a player but and and if he's the one that loses out here I think the Packers are making a big big mistake like to me he would be almost he'd be my flanker on almost all the snaps that were in Two and then he'd move into the slot and 11 personnel that's fine but it's going to that's just one of the best big reveals because I think they're a team to really monitor with this trend I know it's kind of receiver by committee they're they're it's going to be a nightmare trying to sort that out I think you even said that they might have a different guy leading every category receptions receiving yards and touchdowns and I totally can picture that as well uh I even the I mean craft had the the peck this week I think he's still banged up but the I've been trying to picture in my mind because I understand what lefor is trying to say where he said we don't have a receiver one like we it's better to have all these guys that you have to game plan for and I do think that part of the meta of where defenses are right now that makes a lot of sense I actually don't think it was just coach speak they're saying like hey if you're going to run a lot of Zone defenses we need a lot of guys that can get open because we don't know which part of the Zone's going to be open so I actually understood that and I love that in a real football sense but like it's let me draft one of these guys because I want a piece of this offense like and I just I'm terrified okay may Jacobs has to be it or love has to be it but it's just like I I've in a personal sense I've stayed away from all these guys because it's just like I can't predict it and that's making me antsy in a real football sense can't freaking wait to watch it but again that's a a huge disconnect um no I'm glad you brought those guys brought them up brought up the Pickins thing too like I I sorry I was just picturing that in my head too is that uh it's like yeah who is going to get all the other targets like he were bringing it up and I was just kind of like in my head I'm like yeah futh will'll get some I'm like Washington's going to get like one game yeah you know the I bet you the running backs get a ton because Russell Wilson checks it down a bunch um Jefferson it's great isn't Scotty Miller on that team too is God oh Arty oh Arty uh God the I'm trying to think the other team oh uh the Titans will be interesting I like their two tight end looks um I'm a big fan of of Josh Wy and chig I I they're fun they're athletic guys they can do some other stuff and so I think they're and with Bill hand he likes to uh even though he's the old line coach not the play caller but you know he's got the ear of his son the head coach uh I think that they're gonna get some more bully ball looks because I just think that's going to be the identity of their offense and I'm I wish they had different backs back there I like Spears but he's just smaller for his how hard of a runner he is reminds me of Devonte Freeman a little bit where it's like you're underz but you're so tough and I love it but don't like your long-term prog prognosis and then paulers you know was allergic to running between the tackles so I just don't like that even if I like the makeup of where that run game is going I think they need one more one more little piece next year's draft but that's another another team I'm looking at with kind of tight end usage oh [ __ ] the veg uh Vegas Raiders yeah I mean they Michael Mayer and Brock Bowers like to if any other team with a cool quarterback and maybe some no offens of Luke getsy he's fine but it's just you know somebody else some Innovative guy that was like you know Sean McVey you know be really stoked about two of the most two tight end prospects I've been highest on in the past eight years 10 years since I've been doing this and they're on the same team and they're both really good that should get us more excited it's just that kind of gets lost in on the Strip here in Las Vegas all right well let's throw to a break and come back and talk about a team that is making more use of 12 personnel and is certainly uh higher on the interest scale from a quarterback perspective than the Gardner muu aen oconnell battle let's take a break and get to it right after this all right we're back Nate this is the thing you are nerding out about heading into week one on the offensive side of the football it's the Buffalo Bills running game if we haven't teased it enough so far so tell the people why they should be excited about the Bills running game even if the whole Ken Dy Joe Brady swaid at coordinator and play caller and there's so many things you could say about differences in there one thing I like where this bills offense went with both of these guys calling plays and now continuing this year is Nate's nerding out about this: The Bills 'spread bully' run game the evolution of their run game and I think before that run game was really focused on oh well you have Josh Allen's legs so of course but now they've really have figured out something that works for them they are more of a bully ball team than you would think they're kind of a spread bully team uh and they will pound Duo which is a very you know power at you run Duo is power without the pull so it's power but they will go right down your throat they have figured out looks to do this they will get into jumbo personnel as much as anybody jumbo being a six tight end or a six offensive lineman as tight end they are one of the teams that use it more than anybody they are Innovative with some of the runs they're using because Brady I think will is willing to look at some college stuff um and maybe the offensive line coach too and and I'm biking on his name right now but he they're willing to adjust maybe some of the more fatty College Plays that other NFL people maybe you know turn their nose up at but I think it's good and I think others are going to start looking at these plays they run a dart run concept which is a tackle pull Deon Dawkins is a very good pull Spencer Brown the right tackle is a very good pull Spencer Brown's not a guy where I just talk about tight ends you don't want down blocking a big big defensive end all right let's get him on the Move let's use his athleticism and and do that that's knowing your personnel so they will use that concept more than anybody and it's a weapon for them they this this team on early down runs last year was fifth in EPA per run so this is a legit legit run team and I just looked it up so outside 2 Minutes last year on early Downs which is first and second down this team had the six most running back runs so not even including Josh Al so just straight running back runs early Downs outside 2 minutes the teams ahead of them are teams that we just talked about my friend Matt Dolphins Lions 49ers Steelers Falcons teams that are we Associated as more Shanahan or bully ball and fullback and tight ends not spread it and rip it Josh out run around craziness like this is I still think there's a disconnect with the bills right now and I don't know if anyone's listening to me the last two months it's just it's just pounding away that it's like this is a different team than people are envisioning this team on those runs third best success rate in the entire league on running back runs with James Cook and Ty Johnson you know these guys that James Cook is fun he's explosive and everything but he's not I would not say an upper tier guy upper tier back they're only behind the the Dolphins and the Rams for the best Run game last year as far as success rate but their boom rate was 20th so this is just a hyper efficient Run game that's doing some Innovative stuff as far as adjustments to the runs and this is without throwing in what I consider the most dangerous runner in the league in Josh Allen which is kind of the the Ace in the hole that they can play at any time they don't need to create explosives with their offense because that's why you have the dragon you have Josh Allen he's the explosive play machine you do this this run game this nickel and dime pass game that I think they're going to lean into that that is to lift the bar lift up the floor of this offense Josh puts us over the top and I I like that formula a lot and this is the last thing about just Personnel makeup with this and this is you're gonna you're going to laugh because this is just total caricature myself receivers as blockers in this freaking offense yeah they have M Holland playing snaps in this offense he's there to block guys I just I've watched more Collins than anybody watching the Falcons last year the Raiders before that he is there to he's a he's a tight end like that's basically he's a receiver playing tight end remember I talked about inverse looks with maybe a receiver and a tight end ma Hollin and don't conade it's kind of like Sam L Porto and I'm on R sa Brown a Diet Coke version a just a little bit a five cent you know Dollar Store version I gonna say like the bottom shelf Kroger diet soda of the yeah yeah the unmarked vodka bottle at the bottom the the Shelf yeah that that yeah not even Bernett not even Bernett not even car off or pop off uh none of that so but that it it's making sense in my head even Keon Coleman ever I'm telling you Matt and I brought it up I think every time we talk about Keon Coleman when you brought him up as a power slot I I'm actually more mad at myself for not envisioning that because now it's really clicked for me and again I have not seen this in the pre like there's not a proof of concept yet but the idea of it's really making sense in my brain put him in a slot in one block piece let him be a big Zone beater in the middle there him and K can do some stuff they can kind of do it on either side that's the formations this team runs more than anybody so even have mvs who's a good blocker khil Shakira does everything well good blocking too it's so yeah this kind of spread bully bills Run game has me kind of really Juiced up I could talk about other Run game adjustments they' made but it's a little better with film so I'll save that until the season starts but it is it it's this bills run game's really kind of got me Juiced up and I I I think that it's kind of got dropped by the wayside as maybe some more shiny new toys are kind of popping up around the league lot of fantasy threads to to pull there and I I want to just hit the hit the uh the receivers before we talk about James Cook where like when you talked about the lions at the beginning with uh those flip-flopping rolls between Sam leaport and Aman Ross St Brown yeah that the first thing I thought about was Dalton concade and and Keon Coleman you bring up Matt Collins like I think Matt Collins is I've been joking about the sacrificial X all off season he's the one guy I think actually will do like he will do it he's I I guarantee you we we are going to talk about this in week one people will be upset by how much Mt Collins plays in week one like I drafted Curtis Samuel I drafted khil Shakir I I drafted Keon Coleman at Dynasty what the hell is Matt Collins doing out there it has been a thing basically since the first snap of training camp for the Buffalo Bills that Matt Collins is the guy who's beaten out like nvs and Chase Claypool and these guys I think to be that SA sacrificial X for this team but he is going to do the Dirty Work he is going to block he's going to be a part of all those things too so I think again he's just going to play more than people think so if you are listening to this podcast you will be the only fantasy listener that is prepared for Matt Hollins to play more in week one than he pro draft him just saying PR yourself no yeah do not draft him just be prepared when your favorite fantasy analyst tweets out the route participation data from from week one and Matt Collins is at you know I don't know colan only ran 12 12 routes and Mt Hollin ran 32 these idiots yeah these idiots what are they doing which and like maybe Keon Coleman takes a minute for them to figure out yep um what he can do him because that's not really what he did at Florida State I think it's it's his best usage at the pro level uh is him being this power slot and using that but that's why he might be more of a second half of the Season type of player and like investing in rookie receivers in the second half has been a proven strategy for success in fantasy football that's why Keon Coleman might be that guy um very similar to like an Aman R st Brown who took a minute like I remember bro I remember talking about this in his in in the inseason reception perception rookie report his rookie year that in all of his pre-draft stuff I said this is a power slot this is a power slot he should play inside as a big was like he should be Bud like Cooper cup that's who Am St Brown is and then in the inseason rookie report that year the first and that's usually the first eight to 10 week of the Season I'm like they're playing him mostly outside and he's running like post and go routes like that's he will never be successful in that role and then the back half of the Season he's playing all slots and he's run short routes and in Breakers and all that stuff and that's who he's been ever since like so if Keon Coleman takes a minute to for them to figure out what he can do like don't panic about that in the early part of the season so I really like this comparison between lions and bills uh from a receiver perspective but I do want to just throw this back to James Cook as well because right I ended up ranking him you know like as a as a kind of a fringe running back one I'm looking at it right now yeah he's my 14th running back um 13th 14th I like alternative between him and Rashad white but the reason I think that he could end up being a pretty big value from this group of players here like that typical start of the running back dead zone is that one this rushing efficiency from the Buffalo Bills as you mentioned I mean they were number one according to fantasy points data in success rate on man Gap runs he's a he's not the perfect running back yeah Duo he's not the perfect running back but he's a big play guy and also he's a big play Potential Threat in the past game last year uh the the top four players in targets per route run on the bills Stefon Diggs duh uh then Ty Johnson only like seven targets but small sample size another running back Dalton concade and then fourth was James Cook like James Cook was up there and they had him at a air yards per Target number of over 2.0 which is crazy high for a running back and him and sequ Bary are the only two guys in the last two years to have a air yards per Target North of 2.0 at the running back position that actually ties to the duo run too is because when they're under Center passing they never straight drop back it's always play action and they're tying it with the main run which is that duo that run that man Gap run those are juicy for the passing game especially when you have a guy like Josh Allen that can throw it 100 yards because it because of the threat of Allen throwing far there's so much space space yeah so checkdowns become 15 yard gains in this offense and it reminds me a lot of uh the Rams in 2018 and I I reference this all the time the girly checkdowns yes because Gurley caught so many that were just 20 yarders because there's so much space in this play action offense because they lean into that that's where cook is really good at those uh I I'm not I I don't know if I have your feelings on Ray Davis but they I that type of back made sense for them as far as just having a guy that that keeps him on schedule I think a grinder back they've been trying to get it yeah we we've talked about this because we were talking about they tried to do with latavius Murray they tried to get these guys in Damen Harris you know formerly of Yahoo uh they but they just got you know they finally get ray Davis in there but then the other thing was Ty Johnson became I'm glad you mentioned him because they started using him as like a deao fullback like they started going like Pony personnel which is two running backs two tail true tail backs on the field at the same time and they're kind of again they're doing some fun stuff with that at the end of the year so again there's I wish they had I like cook I don't love him like I didn't love him as a prospect I like having him as a player on my team I don't like him as my main back because he's more of a speed guy he'll bounce stuff a little bit more than I like it's they're built for a man if they had a trying to think like a I was not going to say Deon single T they had a fast Devon single ter this would be great for him but like but if they had someone that was a a guy that stayed on schedule all the time A K Williams a Blake Corum um those guys like just a boom boom boom steady guy oh my God this offense I'd feel even more about but I get the trade-off to tring to create maybe explosive plays where as you're trying to be efficient with it yeah they're they're getting part of the girly experience but they're not getting the whole girly experience because you know James Cook I I'm with you I like him but he's not obviously he's not Todd gy so maybe Ray Davis again deep sleeper type waiver wire player he could maybe be that running back that keeps them onle week one they play your Arizona Cardinals do the Buffalo Bills at home you're Arizona Cardinals uh I think the I think the betting line got moved down too like people are betting on the Cardinals so I think it's it's been L they're all football 301 listeners stop listening stop listening start listening to that stuff in week two and Beyond not week one in Buffalo I already started slowing down when I when he said over under seven and a half I went under it was like no no I'm not I'm not letting this happen to me again no not not it doesn't matter though you it's it's too late the car it's already a Runway train the D has been cast uh the bills right now in terms of implied points they're the highest on the week with the lions at 27.3 uh implied points so this is all to say we broke this bill's offense down and like James Cook could come out of week one as a big- Time winner because they're playing in uh running friendly game scripts and all this stuff so definitely uh keep an eye on that um BL happy defense best way to go against that Pound The Rock so that Pound The Rock and have like a checkdown option Nate wants you to care about this: The Patriots offense isn't as bad as you think for a big play in the pass game with James Cook so uh he's definitely somebody I will have my eye on in week one uh Nate the one thing that you want people to like the one thing that Nate Ty wants people to like is actually another quote Dead Zone back who yeah I'mma tell you what before I'mma let you go on this thing but I'm praying to God you are right on this one cuz I drafted a suspicious amount of this player this year because he would fall fall and fall and fall and drafts and so I'm hoping that you're right about this thing you want people to like oh yeah I got plenty of takes on this team that has currently the lowest win total projected win total right now that's the Patriots at four and a half wins and maybe again I didn't even think i' would be like the high guy in the Patriots in this in the National media scene even with my Drake May stock but I'm just watching this I'm like this isn't as bad as everyone making this out to be the first off the defense is going to be top 10 even without barmore and judon we looked at this defense but looking at the offense the o line and I know much has been made about the o line there are ton of people ton of people studying Patriots offensive line tape this this August a ton of people so I know we have to listen to them s sense all the sincerity and sarcasm in that yeah yeah no sarcasm all sincerity in that the iry of yeah I laugh at everything I say and then as soon as I get sarcastic I don't laugh if you ever want to tell that sarcastic uh but the the but this run game and I brought up the offensive line coach I know more about the Patriots off offensive line coach than anybody Mr Peters here but is that they are it's a sound offense it is not gimmicky it's not exciting it's not the create it's not going to blow your socks off but I trust this offensive staff that the Baseline of the scheme the concepts are going to be an acceptable NFL level I know that's not exciting it's not crazy I know that's not the sexiest thing you ever want to hear about an offense but why I'm saying that is why are we predicting this to be like the the the historically bad offensive line historically bad offense because I think the cast of characters are more competent Than People realize I think this offensive line is more competent that people realize Andrews was not playing the center in the preseason he's back so those snap things are gonna they're going to be cleaned up a little bit I also think getting them all on track I think the snap stuff will get better I think the guards play will be better they found a fourth rounder uh and and Rob lead in Robinson I always forget his first name but it's Laden Robinson come on guess it right yeah Laden Robinson fourth rounder but um uh my brain man don't remember what I have for breakfast but uh uh but I just think it's not great I'm not saying this is gonna be a top 10 offens line I'm just saying it's not going to be this historically bad thing that everyone's made him out to be I think it's more like the 22nd best offensive line pass protection wise eh they'll be they'll give them chip up whatever but as far as Run game this guy is a Bill Callahan disciple of the offensive line coach they're going to Pound The Rock they have beef up front they have at least decent they I would say I'm gonna go with three decent starters three decent starters and two question marks uh but they also have tight ends that are willing to block they have a bunch of Dirty Work receivers that adds up if you want a good run game you need receivers that block and I know that sounds like we don't want to say it all the time but it does matter if you want the Run game Stevenson's a true three down back he pass protects he catches the ball they're going to have him on the field for three Downs I think you know are you worried about Antonio Gibson taking too many touches I think it's more like a 7030 kind of split that's how I picture Gibson's gonna have his spells he actually looked decent a little bit actually in some of the things but I'm just making up that this offensive ecosystem is not historically bad I could look at a few teams right now that I think have worst lines worst potential Run games because of their lines and just who they have back there the Personnel that they have and the coaching that they have but I just want to say that like the Patriots offense and like where this run game can go and like Stephenson's stock a lot because I I just his size his skill set their commitment to him salary-wise and just who else are we going to give touches to but it's not going to be a three yards in a cloud of dust holy crap this is a Jeff Fischer 2016 Rams offense with Gurley this I think is just the baselines going to be more competent Than People realize because I think the offensive line is below average but not God awful like I think just the narrative has been this last month like I said I'm hoping you're right on this buddy because but they are going against the Bengals week one and the Bengals cannot stop a nose bed on the ground right now they might look okay we quad such such a good point I was pretty much just in line with consensus ADP uh at the running back position this year didn't really have any outliers in the top 25 backs the two guys that stood out for me was one Jaylen Warren just because I think he got faded a little bit because of the offseason injury uh I'm generally in on Jaylen Warren this year and two was rander Stevenson who had six spots ahead of cons ranked ahead of consensus and again ended up with him in a suspicious amount of drafts this year because I believe in a lot of what you're selling here I have two right now so we'll see we'll see I I do like this one I want to put a pin in it and come back to it in like in week four and we'll check in on the Patriots cuz I'm sure we'll want you to talk Dr May uh and like is it time for Drake may I bet he he's be playing by week four anyway so uh that's my prediction and then I do want to check in on Steven because I think that's really interesting so let's throw to the break and when we come back we'll preview the Thursday night and Friday night games real quick and then we'll get out of here all right we're back Nate Ty we have two games to talk through because we're not going to include our Friday preview on the Friday show so that it's not dated when people listen to it so we're going to talk through both these games here yeah I defin that was definitely my smart idea not our genius producers Brett Raider and Colin uh Brennan no it was my idea cuz I'm I'm the brains of this Previewing and providing prop bets for Ravens-Chiefs and Packers-Eagles operation so someone someone's like man I so my friend goes man I really like that intro thing that you do that was a great idea and I was like oh I didn't even know we're do it that was the producer so yeah so yeah shout out to everyone that makes us look good oh yeah basically Stone any yeah Stone football 301 Audi as well yeah basically if if anything is good on the podcast it's probably the production team if it's something it's my fault it's probably was my idea so um I like that yeah I'm not I'm no Donovan McNab baby it's I gotta lift up my teammates here okay so let's talk um well Eagles are our second team but let's talk Ravens Chiefs season opener on Thursday Night Football Nate Ty um just give me big picture thoughts about this matchup before we talk a couple props I'm staring at the Chiefs new faces that's that's the left tackle Hollywood Brown is hurt not playing they just announced it I think and then uh but you know Xavier worthy Wy the tight end really the offensive line in general in the Run game because I think that's going to dictate so much for this Chiefs team I least just the feelings and Vibes more than the big play this that everyone we're all excited about I think it's more just that steady down to- down Run game Su Mata the left tackle is huge for that and Trey Smith kind of get back he looked good uh this preseason but getting back to where his caliber play was cuz he took a drop off last year so that's why I'm watching for the Chiefs and Ravens wise they got a lot of new coaches on defense they got new reconfigured faces on their offensive line as well not the sexiest things then I'm also really excited to look at Lamar Jackson Derrick Henry in that run game I just as a football nerd that is oh that is that is a something I can get ready for I don't think I am crazy and hip and saying that I'm excited to watch those two in action and I think that's going to be a lot of fun to watch tomorrow night yeah focusing on when the Chiefs have the ball I think you hit the two big things that we're looking for here especially from a fantasy perspective is yeah the Run game in general you know they're breaking in a new rookie left tackle we'll see how that goes tackle play was a big talking point in week one last year with the Kansas City Chiefs if you don't remember oh my God remember that and Jawan Taylor Taylor jumping snaps again another very serious thing that we should we should always pay attention to um and they're a perfect team to talk about too with like receivers blocking because I ree rice is a big player and I actually kind of thought blocking is okay like it was okay as a rookie it was it was fine I'll give I I'll give him credit for being him to run a lot of bubbles for a reason yeah I'll give him credit for at times being willing but he was willing also you new position for him he played mostly as an outside X in college like he's down there in the mix and the muck uh from a run game perspective so maybe in year two that's something nobody cares about that for Fantasy but something to watch and then zavier worthy if you don't know is 165 pounds so is he going to be near fit in the run that will be certainly something to to monitor doesn't block either so right so they're gonna be asking a lot of like the Dirty Work Bros maybe that's why JuJu's back he's back he's G he's back to block he's back to block baby well seriously though like I all last year I kept saying I was like I'm not saying for a this guy's getting a thousand yards they need a JuJu Smith Shuster just to catch a 5 yard pass and just to like you know set a pick and just for somebody else and then they signed him I'm like all right well it's all right they signed literally Juju Smith Sher all right cool fine that's good because Rashid rice is kind of the receiver parts of JuJu mster the early career Juju mster and a little bit Jarvis landish as well from a reception perception standpoint but he's not he's not the like what was his reception perception profile look like Jarvis Landry was that oh that must have been a funky one it was a weird one man I think actually when I look at the um I think I've made this point before but like historic Route percentages um in terms of like Slants number one is Rashi Rice's rookie year um at at 38.3% slant route rate number two is actually one of JuJu's years uh 2021 not too far down there at 34.1% is Jarvis landre rookie year so and he also ran about the same amount of screen routes as Rashid rice so rout way more flat routes too yeah like th those are also high in the other route category which is some of that like reversal stuff whatever um yeah so pretty similar r Rice has a little more juice than those two though like feels a little different he absolutely I certain certainly more than Landry I think Juju had some after catch uh pop when he was younger but he five yard burst that he's really good at that drop step and you get up yep yep yep he doesn't but uh rice does not have the same kind of like Hammerhead uh in the Run game or like set to pick any of that stuff that those two guys did so um he that's something to watch especially how again how that affects Isaiah peka who's weirdly become like a polarizing player in the last week for Fantasy because they've s they signed samaj perine and yeah I mean s perin's roll in week one I guess we'll bear watching um I hopefully not a pass protection back that's always there to do it's there to be on third down to P to block for momes and catch some check Downs that that is pin's role in the NFL but to but to the the people's point that will if he owns that role and truly owns it it will shave off some of the hoped ceiling for Isaiah Peko and make him you know maybe a backend running back one uh but not a guy that is going to threaten the top eight at the position um so be worried about Carson Steel I've heard that name as well see this Nate I hope none of our bosses are listening to this uh because they certainly don't listen to our content for sure um there's another see they just see the run time they're too focused on that two hour 16 bit you did with uh with Charles McDonald a couple weeks ago um but like I hope no our boss are not listening to this because this is the one place where I'll just never be that great of a fantasy analyst is I can't possibly get myself week one of the NFL season week one of the freaking NFL season after months and months and months of no football like I will not lead the show with burning question how much will samaj perine play and how will that affect Isaiah Pacho I I don't care man I mean I know I should care I know the people care but I'm not gonna put top five things to watch in the season opener how much will sabage perod play and how will that limit Isaiah P season long ceing I know I should care but I don't care so but I said it I said it on the show so are the listeners on the show are aware that this is something to watch so that's what we're looking at when the Chiefs have the ball when the Ravens have the ball I'm with you it's just Derrick Henry's role and I do think a little bit you know how much does Justice Hill play because they they talked him up a little bit too if we want to continue the theme of sickos uh and what they care about at the running backs and then just I'm also backup running back discussions this is this is a fantasy football podcast Nate that we we talk about backup running backs here um and yeah know I'm also of course interested in Z flowers and what his role is in year 2 and the baitman playing time is he truly an every down receiver for them so those two things I think are the number one thing I'm beyond Derrick Henry and that's freaking cool those two receivers and what their roles are or something I'm dialing as well you know that uh there's a gif of the dog with the cake and he has like the crazy eyes you know it's just like staring off to the distance and someone did like a PTSD like super cut over it where it's just like all these like bad images you said rad baitman and it just clicked in my my brain that this is an island game he better not have a drop I know please Rashad baitman just be okay tomorrow because I I I just survived okay just okayy lender Connor Wagman mentions from my freaking preseason Big Board had to survive that for a weekend I I can't stand another Island Game mention Twitter mention blow up I just I I I hadn't thought about that until literally you said Rashad bement right now and I just realized that's an island game where everybody's watching I had somebody in uh my Discord point out that for two like couple two years ago the Rams were the week one opener and I was really in on Alan Robinson and the Rams and that went to game was a brutal one too that was brutal I I I'll still never get over like I don't think I like watching season openers because that one scarred me forever and then last year um you know Sky Moore was a guy wasn't super like I'm gonna rank him really aggressively last year but he was a prospect I liked and I was like oh I can't wait to see what sky Moore does in week one uh you know with it an open receiver room zero catches so somebody pointed out like oh now we got baitman in the week one opener like I don't know if I'm I'm fit for this um but we'll see we'll see man we'll see I have better I have better hopes for you know ADP adjusted better hopes for Rashad baitman than either of those two guys going into this year but like I said famous last words so uh on that note Nate before we move off this game any props we want to share for the people uh as we as we look as we look through this I actually guy we were just talking about I have Rashi rice over five and a half receptions uh I think they're going to Pepper him underneath uh although you know this defense if they continue what they did before we'll see kind of a mix of every type of coverage when you get that sometimes the quarterback will default we want to see the big sexy big plays all that space that can hypothetically get created by Xavier worthy plenty of room underneath for somebody to catch a lot of balls if they're worried about the Deep speed they're trying to run all these stuff have all these double coverages have ran Smith running from the line scrimmage that opens up stuff underneath and if I think they focus on Kelce like they would in this kind of heavy game plan defense I think that again opens up spots for Rice the other one same thing crazy defensive looks everybody running every which way look for Patrick Mahomes over 20 and a half rushing yards that was going to be one of mine that was going to be one of mine okay always one of my favorite props is especially against defenses like this we're third and five third and 12 all right Mahomes running for a first down everything gets funky on the B back hand I dig that um I like both of those I was just going to go chalk and say Derrick Henry over 63 and a half uh rushing yards this was a team that became much better uh from a run defense perspective the Kansas City Chiefs like as the season wor on but there were some hit and miss moments at times last year I don't know that there's a ton of changes to look for there so um again and I think they're going to try to establish the hell out of Derrick Henry in week one uh it's a big reveal for the fans it's a big reveal for everybody else so I like your two a little bit more than mine but that was the one I was going to go with it's it's try and true you go against spags or Todd Bulls run the run the ball it's it makes your life easier doesn't matter who your quarterback is just run the ball it makes makes life so much easier all right so the Friday game in Brazil we've got Eagles versus Packers this one's I mean just there's so many layers I wish we could do another hour on this but we will not do a football 301 2our podcast on this podcast feed because um actually I'm not I'm not allowed to do it Nate actually if you want to you want to dig deep on the uh on with what on my ass here well you never know um but yeah so this one's super fascinating uh High over under 48 and a half point total right now what are we looking for when let's let's start with when the Eagles have the ball what are we looking at when the Eagles have the ball oh just something you and I have talked about I feel like 40 times now but it's shoot especially against maybe this defense and some the looks still bring it's how the center cam Jurgens plays along with Jaylen Herz and how this whole offense looks is there more motion which isn't the end all Beall and I think there's there's other reasons why they limited motion and I think it's because Jason Kelce didn't like motion and it it changes the picture on everybody so I'm curious if now he's gone that they let they let him do it now and so it's just the Kell moess of this offense it's I I can picture a lot of the things Jeff Stalin's still the offensive line coach I can picture of the Run game it's going to be very similar to what it's been Kell Moore will be is willing to run the ball does a little bit everything run the ball but his passing attacks over the years will use a lot of quick game they'll use a little bit of everything a little bit more straight dropback stuff so I want to see how Herz operates in that and how it just all looks and it's a fun defense to go against uh reconfigured Packers defense with a good front so yeah trench battle new Eagles offense I I I just want to watch it all not saying good or bad it's just a curiosity totally and and I won't go too deep on this because I actually had a big long talk about it yesterday on the podcast with s uh like this was my number one week one reveal is what the Eagles offense looks like uh because of the molding of these two roles and you're so right to bring up Jason Kelce I know I'm most people don't bring him up enough and I know I don't as well that he is like an outsized figure in this whole equation that we talk about like quarterbacks sometimes don't want the pre-ap motion right Aaron Rogers famously doesn't want the pre-nap motion any of that because he wants to get up there and see the picture Kelsey is he's like that level of Center number one like one of the best centers ever play one of the most decorated he played for one team his entire career like if he has enough authority to be like in relationship with Jeff Stalin to say I don't we're not doing that like if I don't want it we're we're gonna take out parts of this offense because I don't want to do it uh so that is a really good point that maybe that is it's not all just a referendum on Herz or anything like that it could be because uh they have a truly transformative figure at Center and they don't need to do all the pre- snap disguising and stuff although I think at the end of last year it was kind of kind of proven that they got to at least mix maybe a little bit they got to mix some of that in there so yeah I'm super fascinated to see what that looks like in this matchup uh what about when the Packers have the ball I I'll just start here and it's a lot of what we talked about at the beginning Nate which is I just I got to see the receiver rotation we will be making a maybe too big of an adjustment but we will be making adjustment to rest of season rankings for these wide receivers after week one and the route participation and you know if somebody's at north of 75% you know and is it just Romeo dobs doing the normal Romeo dobs thing like the probably the the best version of the sacrificial X but still a little bit sacrificial X receiver is or is Jaden Reed that player that's going to be on the field for more than he he just cannot just be a three receiver set player he's too good he's too good I I said it a thousand times this offseason I guarantee you if week if by week four the Packers who Matt Le is really good at this stuff so far be it from me random goofball in his home office to question Matt laflor but I guarantee you by week four if Jaden Reed's playing like 50% of the Snaps are running a 50% route sh because he's not on the field in two receiver sets Packers fans are going to justifiably be like what the hell happened to all the the guy that did all did all that stuff for us last year so good so uh I I can't imagine that he's gonna be that player but again it's on my radar for rest of season rankings yeah no it really is for me too and just because they say he's slot receiver doesn't mean they don't move him around he's not do yeah it's not slot only it's a big differ it's not like Tyler Boyd or or chrisian Kirk you know who who are slot receivers very good at it but they're that's it like if you line them outside against Press online you get a little antsy with it Reed can line up anywhere it's just that that's his it's his defined role and everything uh yeah it's just what seeing this offense go and seeing what all looks like seeing if Jordan love ascends even more uh against this defense that I respect the hell of Vic fangio still have some question marks about how this Personnel fits all all together they don't have a lot of beef on the outside you know if they had Bryce half playing full-time um he was been more of a rotational rusher in his career they lost Devin white at linebacker I believe uh uh I think he's missing this week in injury they have you know multiple just question marks along the spine which is same exact question marks that I had last year with them so I was wondering if the Packers just Pound The Rock if they manipulate it with some play action stuff if they really work that middle of the field try and get those linebackers going Every Which Way some of the new face is going every way it's where you want to attack this type of angio defense anyways but especially with the question marks of personnel we'll see see how much that gets attacked yeah I love that uh and I ended up kind of high on Jordan love this offseason of fantasy just because it's well I can't quite pick the receiver because I like a lot of the receivers you know who's going to throw the ball to those receivers let me just draft back guy so I ended up taking a lot of Jordan love he's one of like my guys at quarterback this year so um I think he's going to get off to a good start in week one in fact he's the one of my player props here I'm going to take over Jordan love 257 a half passing yards in this one uh because a lot of the matchup advantages that you mentioned and just again I think this offense is going to get off to a good start there are so many different ways that they can attack you because of all of these players it's hard to pick a player that I like to do the scoring but I do think Jordan love is going to get going here in we one because I'm a sicko who actually already knows who the ref crew for this game is by the way Ron torbert and his crew who are my God who are a travesty to the ring position uh umpire position uh yeah last year they had a whole bunch of new crew members and they just kept messing up game Operation stuff and it was just the most like I mean it was like a weekly basis and now they're sending them to Brazil so we'll see uh but you just mentioned all these guys we don't know who is going to catch the passes which of the receivers going to step up which of the tight ends is going to step up for the Packers how about the running back Josh Jacobs over 16 and a half receiving yards he gets the receiving prop for me because of this fangio defense that is softer that wants to play zone and make you work for it a lot of play action in this Packers offense we mentioned those check Downs to Josh Jacobs he's a valid receiving checkdown auxiliary option they're going to run a lot of play action like I think they will they're going to push the ball there's going to be some opportunities for him to catch the ball underneath especially against this type defense especially with linebackers that are a little iffy uh with him one-on-one against them and if you're looking to really hate your life and bet and under here I do think uh saquon Barkley under 15 and a half receiving yards is interesting um do that every week and yeah and it might be safer to do the under two and a half catches you also get better odds because if he busts a big one like again you're just going to hate yourself and I'm all I'm all about betting on sports and not hating yourself um so that's that's kind of my general philosophy and and I just I just think against this defense that we expect and we don't know what Jeff hle is going to do yet but we expect it to be more of a cover one like some more man coverage here and stuff single high that's gonna be AJ Brown time you know what whatever they want to do from a mocean and all this new kellmore stuff the bread and butter is still gonna be yo AJ Brown's over there single high I'm I'm Jaylen Herz I'm throwing that go ball to him uh so that's going to be a lot of what the offense looks like as they try to integrate this new stuff and it's still okay am I getting to the saquon Barkley and the read or am I taking off in scrambling so maybe the under two and a half catches is actually the way to go I I like that a lot I hit a miles Sanders prop I think in the Super Bowl I think it was under two and a half receiving yards oh my God and I think he caught a ball for two yards or one yard or something like that or a Target went his way and I was like screaming but it was like one of the ones I was like I'm a sicko like that was that was one that was that was a new level it was under like two and a half or three and a half receiving yards I I really want to find it but it hit it it hit so that all works out the end all right man I think that's all we got uh for today this was a packed pod we went through a lot of different things as much as we're like man I just can't wait for the games to get here it was fun talk about we talked about the games in a more real sense we talked about these players in a more of a real sense so um appreciate you doing this with me man uh tell the people what you got coming out on the site football 301 the things oh yeah so we have right now should be coming out later today today being Wednesday so uh Wednesday or Thursday is I have a Patrick Mahomes Texas Tech film study just kind of a what did we miss kind of thing I I'm trying to figure out exactly how to you know package it all together but it's interesting I got three games of film to watch you I was checking him out and uh yeah really funny to watch what got got him might go down as the greatest football player I've ever seen first three throws I watched against West Virginia Air mailed all three amazing sailed them way over the head that was Drake may they would talk about his footwork in five years before we can even see the field so uh it's funny how that works but uh also have uh Awards predictions just like we did on football 301 doing a kind of a written version of that all that's come out then we have the preview pod coming out tomorrow as well football 301 amazing week one we're there week one baby hell of a crossover episode uh which we'll be doing these every week Nate Ty appreciate the hell out of you for doing it that is going to be all for us today um on Friday Andy Barons and Tara Roberts are going to join me to preview the rest of Sunday's action because week one is here thanks everybody for being here thanks everyone for listening if you like the show hey we're all in a celebratory mood for week one I would celebrate the hell out of you people if you left us a nice five-star rating and review five stars only don't say we love the show four stars no you love the show leave it five stars if you don't love the show just don't pretend like you never heard this and just keep moving um but anyways week one preview it's coming up what a time to be alive on tomorrow's episode until then we're out