Montana State vs New Mexico BEST BETS! College Football Week 0 Picks & Predictions | BBOC

we have New Mexico 11 and a half home dog pretty crazy to Montana state if the spread holds at above double digits it will be the largest home F FBS dog against an FCS team in college football history it's definitely a historical line you know I make this under 10 so at this price range I would it' be New Mexico or nothing I just I don't have a ton of confidence in my FCS numbers at this moment but I what I can tell you about Montana State they've been on Elite they're a top three FCS team in the mix for the national title this year they have an elite rushing offense you know they did lose three offensive linemen to the FBS level still have a really really good Center and Tackle both guards are dealing with injuries and their top back who might not play in this game and they have one quarterback back in aot but their other Chambers he's gone they kind of like did a dual quarterback system the new OC I think wants to be more balanced and throw it more because they were just a great rushing offense pretty inconsistent when they threw the ball Chambers has been injured in the past so that is a question like how much do they want to run them keep them in if they're up against an FBS team it's not really I don't know it's on TV I'm sure they really care about this game they projected starting free safety from Air Force he's likely out the past D was pretty vulnerable last year the new DC so you know they they do really get after the quarterback that was the strength but they lost two key defensive linemen still two very good ones up front in their 425d does New Mexico have the weapons to take advantage of some of the potential weaknesses in the back end could maybe Devon dampier had not really Fant but he's played and they have some promising wide receivers Bronco men takes over for New Mexico lot of uncertainty on this roster you think this line is too high uh maybe by a point I I mean there I tried to make a case for New Mexico knowing you know I talked to Bronco menen Hall in Vegas at at Mountain West media day and this is not even a year zero situation this is uh anybody can play any position if they show out in practice I mean it is a complete reset in so many spots on both sides of the ball I don't know how you make case for him I tried there's no elevation Advantage here I mean Boseman is 4,800 plus feet in the air I mean ABQ Albuquerque's 5300 so it's not like you can get Montana State on the elevation Factor um you know when you look at Montana State they ended 2023 losing in the second round of North Dakota state by one in overtime if that's not motivation to come out with your hair on fire they do return quarterback uh Tommy mot like you said is a 24 to6 career TD to int shared time with Shawn Chambers Chambers is gone uh I think what's interesting about Tommy mot he committed two turnover worthy plays and 142 drop backs last year that that's pretty impressive the kid does not make mistakes he added another 500 yards on the ground from designed calls I think that's important here because the lead rusher Julian Davis also Returns the average seven yards per carry last year uh kind of insane and I know that they want to pass more and they said that they want to be more balanced but they lose their top three pass catchers uh Jacob Trimble returns with the most targets he had 22 so I'm not sure how much they're going to be passing here which it's kind of leading me into I can be talked into an Under Numbers at 54 and a half I'd like 55 first half numbers at 27 half I'd like 28 so just use those as your boundaries now the question is can Bronco get this the Lobos to produce I'm not sure any of us really know that but what we do know is who the three best players are on defense it's Kyler Drake at Edge it's Tyler Ken at defensive interior and Taven combes and nickel that's great but when you go centr could play play the next level oh yeah yeah but if you go and look at their names as far as Rush defensive grading per PFF none of those players finished in the top 14 on the roster last year so while like Taven combes can you know can can play coverage he can defend the pass he can do a lot of great things run defense was not a forte of their three best players on defense so I'm a little nervous that they can't contain Montana State I think the one thing that you know maybe we need to do a little bit more research Arch is Bronco menen Hall has so many connections to to Utah to you know to New Mexico uh from previous coaching stops does he have ties to some of the staff on Montana state that would say hey we're up by 14 we're up by 17 We're not gonna we're just gonna snap the ball turn around hand it off and this is going to be a low-scoring game so I am leaning under um I'm probably going to end up playing it I don't know if it'll be first half or full game but I just don't see a lot of explosive plays in this game stock yeah I would tend to agree there is some uncertainty with like does Montana state is saying they want to be more balanced do they like try and practice some of that more throwing or do they hold it back so UNC there Jason back the new OC for New Mexico but I Franco menol tend to be more conservative um the focus in Camp for New Mexico has been all about stopping the run menal is going to run his 335 so that is like what they want to do there there's some size they add some some size on the defensive line a lot of uncertainty there wasn't good last year that is all they've been focused on that was just stopping the run which if Montana State plays that they usually do that maybe that pays dividend so yeah 55 or better uh I don't mind the under here here either e