Iowa State vs Iowa BEST BETS! College Football Week 2 Picks & Predictions | BBOC

let's move on to the second Marquee game of the day between Iowa and Iowa State the battle for the shawk trophy 330 Eastern on CBS I you know look I originally played Iowa State in this game plus three I just simple handicap I made it less and I said low total super low total here I want the field goal in hand um but I ended up coming back some on Iowa after I went back watched the Iowa State game and and also got some injur reports the Iowa State linebacker room really worries me you already had one of your starters out and then you lost bacon who was one of their most important players on defense uh so and just the drop off to their Replacements it was bad last week and it could be bad again this week so I bought some back on Iowa money line there also a good chance this game ends but I you know Iowa by one or two in a typical Iowa Iowa State game the other things that do worry me about Iowa State are you know this game usually you know low scoring game lot of times it's going to come down to just like a special teams play who's going to turn the ball over penalties those are the battles that Iowa usually wins and you have to mention that this Iowa team showed a little bit more of a pulse last week on offense you had I think they had the most total yards since 2019 that true freshman wide receiver vandery he showed out with two touchdowns they had their wide receivers had three touchdowns the same amount of touchdowns they had all of last season so you saw them spread it out a little more use a little more modern Concepts and it's a little more vertical offense I feel like you talking about San Diego State calling the Iowa offense vertical so if you look back at this and then but but I should finish the other the other thing that worries me about Iowa state is their offense last year worked best when it hit explosive plays very explosive offense well under Phil Parker no defense has done a better job at limiting explosive plays than Iowa has in recent Seasons so I don't feel as good about Iowa state with some of the injury situations I don't know if they're going to be able to efficiently move the ball and maybe this Iowa offense has a little more juice I will say I'll make a case for I already made a I'm going to make a case later in the show for an ugly over this one I would lean over under 37 uh this you know this the under in this matchup is 17- two over the past 19 meetings but 10 of those 19 have reached at least 37 points and this looks like a much more competent Iowa offense there's injuries on the Iowa State Defense so I think that there could be more points than many are expected and it's not that high of a bar to clear at under 37 20 to 17 gets it done what do you see here I'm gonna download every word you just said and apply it to Army Navy when the total is like 28 because it's too low sometimes it just gets too low and you gotta go over so uh listen I'm not surprised by what Iowa state did last week against North Dakota I mean it's just in their DNA to suck in the first game of the season uh they won by six as a 32 and a half Point favorite over Northern Illinois in 202 21 they lost outright to Louisiana in 2020 in the opener uh they beat Northern Iowa by three in 2019 as a 23-point favorite I just I really don't take anything away from it but the injuries are a concern you're right about that freshman kale binia is gonna start a linebacker as a freshman he was injured last week but he comes back in the rotation a linebacker crew that's already missing two guys so if there's going to be a point of attack for Iowa's new offense it's going to be at that linebacker uh area so you know I I'm not sold on Iowa like everybody else is I know the final score say 40 to zero it was six to zero at half then they come back out they're busting some highlight touchdowns they're running through the a gap and you know a 60- yard TD to the house I mean that's just Illinois State being tired in the second half that I'm not really sure that has to do with Tim Lester's offense hitting the a gap and going 60 yards Kade mcnamer throwing for three TDs is a very positive sign for the Hawkeyes um to me this play is all about who takes care of the ball better so instead of breaking down offense and defense and this matchup you're actually breaking down special teams here now Rock Ock has only thrown three interceptions in his last nine games he has been fantastic with the ball he's only fumbled twice on 61 carries last year the explosive element does reside with Iowa State but you're right Phil Parker is going to throw a little bit of a kink into that Eli green Jaden Higgins were well over two yards per route run in the game against North Dakota Jaylen Noel went berserk I mean he's all eight targets all eight targets he caught for 135 yards in a TD the Iowa defensive backs they're going to have to be on their game in one-on-one tackling I don't really know if that's where iow say's going to go I think it's really Abu Sam I mean he only fumbled the ball twice last year and when you hear me bring up fumbles and interception rates I want to know who's more probable to having the screw up that's going to cost the game I think of Brock pie fumbling the ball down in Iowa's Red Zone that was the game uh you go into the Special Teams here you know Jaylen Noel uh he returns punts kicks that's a big plus for Iowa State Iowa State's Tyler Perkins he averaged 44 yards last season so it's not like we have an inexperienced punter they do have a red red shirt freshman kicker Kyle cor cornr uh he was three for three on extra points but no field goal attempts unsurprisingly Iowa gained 195 hidden yards um last week on Illinois State they connected on two field goals they connected on all four extra points only one punt on good returns good returns good returns so really if you're backing Iowa State you think it's a pick them game because I think it's a pick them game you're backing iow say because you want the points you want the field goal and you're trusting Rock OBC to not have mistakes here because he made a lot against the Hawkeyes last year it was just Deering the headlights but then again second game for a true freshman uh I trust him more than I do Kade mcnamer to create chunk plays bigger chunk plays um I just can't get over Iowa only not even scoring a TD on Illinois State through the first half so um you know I'm back in Iowa State here at three pretty confident with it but I I think the game's going to land one two three so like the number yeah it is worth mentioning Caleb Johnson was suspended in the first half he did come out in that second half looked great and you know you mentioned Illinois State might have been weared wearing down he was fresh and ready to go motivated after that suspension and maybe Carrick France back on the sidelines maybe he says no no no no no we're back to uh no passing uh we're going completely conservative for