AFL FINALS Betting Tips, Trends & Predictions For ALL Matches Week 1 | 2024 AFL Season

hey everyone welcome to the invest AFL finals week number one and I'm going to go through an early look at all four games coming up in week one of the finals with no games on this weekend I thought let's jump ahead go through the games I want to give you a behind the scenes look at the factors and research key performance indicators for all these sides so you can really start thinking about what bets that you want to make and then closer to game time once lineups are out I'll post another video where analyze the player propess a bit deeper go through disposals goal scorers and decide on my favorite bets for each one of these games so this video is going to really help you with analyzing games key factors to look for not only for the rest of this season but years and years to come and also uh these are using the binder tools which you can view for yourself through the link in the description this is how I've gone through and analyze games for the past 10 years now I've been doing it fulltime for a little bit longer but it's been 10 years since building these tools and this year I made it available for everybody to use as part of invest so um really exciting weekend of games coming up like all four finals are really really good games like this is a bit of a weird year just in general in the AFL like there's no real super standout one two or three sides like all the sides in the top eight genuinely there's six to seven sides who are completely capable of winning the Premiership if everything goes right and that's not what we've seen in previous Seasons really at this stage already been narrowed down to you know two sides where you're expecting like one of those two sides will win and that'll be it but it's very it's wide open this year which also leaves plenty of opportunity for us betting into these games as well so before we run through each of these games I just want to quickly recap what happened in the final round it was uh an interesting round overall in general came down to the wire Freeman needed to win to secure their spot in the top eight after Carlson lost the game earlier that afternoon however they weren't able to do so so Carlton were able to sneak in from a betting perspective if you watched last weekend's or last week's video then you would have made a stack of money across these games uh we pretty much of the nine games only got one of them wrong in the Melbourne Collingwood game on Friday night we had Collingwood also that game went under the total points line we had haor with that game Win It comfortably and also to go over the total we also hit disposal players in that game with a number of Hawks players racking up high numbers similar story in the jalong game um beating West Coast by a big margin then we targeted quarter two in the go Coast Suns Richmond game and you'll notice here that in the second quarter uh at quarter time sorry go Coast were only leading by three points then by halftime they were leading by 32 points so outscored Richmond 41 to2 during that second quarter then also in the later games we had the Brisbane Lions and we targeted the first quarter and first half brisman followed their similar pattern got out to a big lead make sure they won the game at least this time around after dropping the two prior but as were able to close the gap which has been that consistent Trend all season with the Brisbane Lions then the crows team total would go over 75 a half in a highs scoring game against the swans and then on Sunday afternoon the only we got wrong I thought this was going to be a slightly closer game between the Bulldogs and Giants still land towards the dogs winning but thought the Giants could keep it under a four goal margin however they couldn't get that done down in Victoria then either side to win by 1 to 24 in the Carson St ker game and liked Port out in the last game and also either side to win by 1 to 24 for the betting results and overall betting trends for this round five of the nine games went under if you're keeping track of this which I do with the betting guides which are also a to part of the binders there a week for the favorites they won eight of the nine games Port Adelaide was the only Underdog to win their game outright favorites covered the spread in six of the nine games uh this season it's been a year for The Underdogs covering 110 to 97 uh The Underdogs who covered this week though were esen covered the spread against the Brisbane Lions then s then Carson covered the spread as an underd against AA and P Le winning outright there against freem man covered um the small plus that they have now looking ahead to this weekend's games the Thursday game Port vers jalong qualifying finals second vers third so the loser of this game gets the Second Chance the winner goes through to the prelam similar story with first vers fourth the swans vers gws played at the SG on Saturday afternoon the other two games on Friday night the Bulldogs Hawthorne at the MCG the Lions Carlton at the gab in Brisbane are both elimination games so we're going to run through them going to go through my thoughts who I think is going to win and why and what I'm currently looking at betting at at this very early stage we're over a week out but this is how you want to approach it when you're betting you want to do your research early so you already know what you're thinking don't leave your decisions to the last minute and then still expect yourself to make good decisions so looking at this game Port Adelaide our favorites they're minus 10 and a half a bit more money has com for comfor them they've shortened uh into a148 from that $154 that went up early and we have a total at 163 and a half port a won the meeting earlier this season in round nine at GM HBA Stadium bring up the recap of that game to actually see what happened it was back in round nine and you may remember remember this game Port aday got out to a 49-point lead Midway through the second second quarter and then jalong slowly worked their way back to close the margin all the way to six points by fulltime so pad definitely took their foot off the gas there after getting out to a big lead um they ended up scoring 101 points 15 goals 11 jalong 14 goals 11 on 95 points um so that was their last meeting the line for that game was jalong the minus 23 A2 at home so we've gone from the Cs being a four goal favorite to right now as I'm looking at it a two goal Underdog so six goal turnaround in the spread there they obviously lost that game if we go back to the last meeting at the Adelaide over which was round 14 2023 Port ad with n and a half Point favorites for that game so very similar to what they are here and they won 110- 72 this is um a very very interesting game both sides come into this in really good form Port ad have won six straight and then the cats have won four their past five the only loss against sta uh 107 to 89 the teams have split the past 10 meetings five wins a piece but Port Adelaide have covered the spread in the past three interesting as well three the past four head tohe head have been decided by 12 or less which is exactly what the line is currently sitting up as it currently stands I'm leaning towards Port Adelaide winning this game for a couple of reasons I think playing at the adate oal is a massive Advantage for them they've won their past four at the Vue including an 112o win against the swans there recently they're 9 and4 at home this season jalong playing at this venue uh have won four of their past five two of them were against port and they split those games one win a piece obviously these are the two games that I'm referring to right there in 2022 and 2023 looking at the St for both sides jalong currently the third best attacking side averaging 94 points a game Port aday slightly behind ranked eightth overall and defensively Port out clearly better third ranked in points conceded whereas jalong ranked 11th in this category how I think this game is going to play out Port aday just need to take advantage of their chances make use of their chances um they're going to get plenty of them um they generate a high number of inside 50s and and jalong concede a high number or at least an above average number of inside 50s and if we go through and look at the efficiency ratings uh for the opponent uh goals per inside 50 for the opponents against Jong they ranked ninth in that number so the key area and key concern obviously for Fort Adela is can they kick straight they generate the second most shots on goal and at home um they average eight more scoring uh scoring shots than they do on the road so that's a big Advantage for them whereas jalong only average 21 scoring shots in a away games compared to 26 at home however port's accuracy is worst in the league if they kick straight portate are going to win this game the only way they're going to lose is if they miss their chances or going the opposite way jalong are extremely efficient and that is possible they're coming up 168 point game last start which they were very efficient Jeremy Cameron kicked nine goals in that game but I think P out lead are going to dominate possession in this game they can see the least number of uncontested possessions to the opposition and overall least number of disposals and least number of marks now looking at jalong they generate the third least number of uncontested possessions they 12th in disposals and ranked 13th in marks so they're going to have to be extremely efficient with the ball and if we look at disposals per goal jalong ranked second in this category however portate are pretty good at stopping sides and making them use more of the ball to generate goals that's going to be an issue for the Cs now jalong pretty experience like you don't have to go back that far and there's massive questions being raised about Port out but I do think they win this game I'll also be looking at their players or disposals which we're going to get into in next week's video Once lineups are out and we have the betting odds available to look at those matches um but I think that is how this game is going to be played also um if we go back to 2021 in the qualifying final these sides met it was at the adate oval and Port won 86 to 43 the only concern I have is obviously their recent matchups have been closed through the past four decided by 12 points or less we had a 6 point game a 12-point game p won that one comfortably and then they lost by 12 in this game but I think at home um they should be able to win this game also don't mind the total to go over it's only at 163 and a half both the sides capable of scoring plenty of points jong's defense isn't that strong and 163 and a half is a barly low number at lean probably slightly more to Port team total to go over if I had to pick a side but also don't mind the full game total to go over as well on Friday night we have the first of the elimination finals between the Western bulldogs and Hawthorne the Bulldogs are small favorites for this game a182 they're two and a half Point favorites on the line and the total is 165 A2 this is a really really good game and honestly one that could go either way and it's going to be really important to break this down and see where the edges are for both sides both of them come into this game in really really good form Port Adela ofon six of their past seven only dropping a game against Adelaide I went back through and looked at that game to see what kind of happened there why did Western Bulldogs lose a game which they should have won comfortably and it was largely due to the fact they kicked terribly inaccurate and the crows were very accurate in front of goal and sometimes you know that's all it takes to win a game against any opposition Hawthorne on the other hand have won 13 of their past 16 leading into this game and really probably should have won 15 of the 16 two games they dropped against gws and Port ad Le were in winable positions in both of those games in the fourth quarter and then they had a bad performance in round 17 against the cats at gmhba Stadium outside of that they've been very very good 170 points last week against North Melbourne 131 the week prior2 prior to that against Carlson so in attack they're performing really really well which this leads me to where I feel like this game is going to be decided now hathorne currently the ranked sixth attacking side overall the season however they're clearly the best over the past two months they go against what are now the best defensive side in the competition in the western Bulldogs only conceding 75 a half points per game on average recently uh the Bulldogs only conceded 61 against gws 42 against North Melbourne they did concede 111 against the crow so if teams can kick straight against them they are able to break through outside of that 59 against M 48 against the swans and 48 against jalong so that's a bit of an Overlook over their past 6 weeks um but the numbers don't lie they can see the least number of shots on goal now the question you have to ask yourself is can Hawthorne take advantage of that like they've been doing against a lot of other teams during this second half of the season I do believe they can I think pathor can run up a score think this game being played at the MCG is a huge Advantage for them it's kind of no wonder the Western Bulldogs had an issue with it and wanted this game being played at Marvel Stadium however when they played early this season you know Hawthorne won that game at Marvel which will get to in a second but the Western Bulldogs have lost four of their past six at the MCG that's over the past three years they play there twice per season um they're one one this season but haven't played there since round 10 where they beat Richmond by 91 points and then their other game there this year was against Melbourne back in round two where they lost by 45 Hawthorne of the MCG how won their past five all of them by 27 points or more and those wins include against Richmond two times Collingwood Carlton and Adelaide Crow so that venue definitely favors Hawthorne and you kind of understand why the AFL wanted the game being played at the MCG due to the fact that it sold out in the first few hours like all the games did but obviously holds a much bigger capacity than Marvel stadium so yeah overall this game Bulldogs top two attacking side number one defensive side but the way hon are playing they can break through that similar to the way that the crows did and if you know the Bulldogs are inaccurate which they're ranked 14th in that category this season and teams against Hawthorne you know are fairly inaccurate as well um kind of does set it up for you know a very very close game and I do think there is a bit of value with the Hawks here as an underdog I think this game should be closer to a pick him so $190 either side so at Hawthorne at over even money they won that last match up 98 to 91 which was round eight this season uh they scored had 28 scoring shots to the Bulldogs 21 in that game Bulldogs got out to an early lead they led by almost 20 points after kicking the first three goals had an 18o lead hathor built it back to even at quarter time and then got a lead during the second quarter maintained that Bulldogs got back in front Midway through the fourth and then Hawthorne edges them out with a couple of late goals to win the game one other thing you want to look at is what happened who contributed to that you notice tror leading disposal getter who kicked the goals uh for example for both sides and just seeing which players were involved in that performance did any key players have bad games uh you know for Hawthorne there are a couple of players who you know have been performing better recently than they did back in that game so overall to sum this game up it's just a matter of whether the Hawks attack and break through the Bulldogs defense which I do believe it can and also I do have belief that the Hawthorne defense should be able to slow down this Bulldog's attack compared to how um other sides have been doing so recently the other question obviously Bulldogs are the more experienced side um they average 108.9 games of experience Compared to North orans at 89.8 so one of the more inexperienced sides in the league which does set them up well you know for the seasons to come um but I do give them a real chance of getting over the line here in the opening elimination final against the Bulldogs next qualifying Final on Saturday afternoon the Sydney Swans take on gws so Battle of the two Sydney sides obviously progresses to a prelim final loser of this game will go through to play the winner of the elimination final swans small favorites here which I think they're deserving to be I think the bookies have kind of nailed this line had the number at minus 8 A2 they've put up minus 72 and the swans are currently paying $162 to win this game outright and the total at 172 a half now Sydney have won the past three and they've covered the spread in each of those against gws two games this season Sydney won by 27 and then 29 Points for both of those games they were 16 and 1 Half Point favorites back in round 15 um the gap between these sides has definitely closed it's obviously been well publicized one had a bit of a rough patch where they only won one game of six weeks and that was against North Melbourne they have got back to some sort of form the past three winning each of those three games however they've all been against uh bottom half of the table size another size that beaten Adelaide asnen and Collingwood have made the top eight and that sometimes just you know isn't as strong a form as beating the better sides in the league so definitely give gws a chance here um they've won seven of their past eight dropping their game last week against the Western Bulldogs down in Victoria think this could be a very very close game I don't think there's a great deal between these two sides at least towards the swans to be winning but don't I don't rule gws out at all interestingly um the team listed as the Wayside has covered 14 of the past 18 in this matchup and I think what this game does come down to is um Can Sydney's defense hold up against gws I think that's been the main issue with the swans the defensive numbers have Dro so attack wise they've stayed at the number one side virtually all year but defensively they w for a period of time the number one defensive side however have now dropped down to seventh range side in points conceded so they're very even defensively but the edge there is with the swans hence why they are a favorite this game also being played at the scg Sydney have won three of their past four at this venue they're nine- two at the scg this season and only really had one poor performance which was against the Western Bulldogs in round 21 where they lost that game 87 points to 48 gws have lost two of their past three of the scg and the one win they had was in 2023 which was by one point uh they did win an elimination final here in 2018 so um you know you go you're going Fairway back you know six years back for that however you know in those situations it is important to see how teams have performed in finals at different venues should mention the the jalong port Adel game they met in a 2021 qualifying final at the adade over which Port ad won 86 to 43 now coming back to the Sydney gws game uh looking at how these teams um have performed overall statistically wise this season I'll would be looking into some gws player props as well they ranked second in disposal fourth in uncontested and contested possessions and the swans ranked ninth in opponent disposals and eigh in opponent uncontested possession so um gws should be able to capitalize on that whether they efficiency numbers are strong enough to be winning this game one thing that I pay close attention to is efficiency ratings and you'll notice defensively opponent scoring shots per inside 50 there's virtually nothing between these two sides however Sydney are ranked F first in scoring shots per inside 50 where gws are ranked 11th in this category so gws are going to really need to capitalize on their chances that they do get and actually convert those uh scoring shots into goals which they are pretty good out but they will need to kick accurately if gws are missing chances it's going to be very difficult for them to win this game uh just in general the other thing to pay close attention to for this game why I also do think it's going to be close I feel like this is going to be a game where gws is going to be in the running early and then swans may just Edge them out over the second half Sydney even though they finished on top of the ladder were one of the worst first quarter sides in the league they ranked 12th overall in quarter one win percentage and they considered the second most points in first quarter so that's an area they um have definitely struggled with is getting out of the gates this season whereas gws are pretty solid they're not amazing but they're pretty solid first quarter side whereas Sydney from that point forward are near the best in the league so key for gws is a strong start if they're down by two or three goals at quarter time then Sydney are going to win this game and win it comfortably so that's an interesting way that you can look at approaching this game as well potentially live betting the Sydney Swans if you like them or taking gws out to win the first quarter as an underdog um that's also highlight if we look at their matchups this season so firstly the latest matchup which was round 15 uh this was at gws home venue you'll notice here was very very close at quarter time when three points between the two sides then Sydney ran away with the game during the second quarter predominantly and early in the third then gws edged back late and then the other matchup that they had uh earlier this season in round eight this one gws were leading by 15 points at quarter time uh before the swans got on top and ran out winners 98 points to 69 so that has consistently held up not just you know in the swans games in general but also against gws then the final game of the first week of finals the other elimination game between the Brisbane Lions and Carlton being played at the gabar Brisbane minus 20 a half so not all that different to when they met in the opening round where brisen minus 23 a half Carlon won that game by one point and the total at 165 and a half so Five Points lower than it was when they met last time and just in general the to totals for finals games are put up slightly lower than they are for regular season games as they're generally more defensive focused games now this matchup six of the past nine head-to-head have gone under but I do have a slight lean towards the overs in this game but to be honest I'm not making any final decisions on this matchup until team lineups are announced it's going to be really key for Carson they're obviously going to bring in as many players as they possibly can who are fit enough to play but I don't think it's going to be enough Brisbane should be winning this game especially at home they've won seven of the past eight this season at the Gaba they have a 74 season record there however lost their first three games against Carlton Collingwood and jalong Carlton at the Gaba did win that game at the beginning of the year but have lost 10 of their past 12 at the Gaba going back to 2013 obviously won that most recent interestingly as well looking at that only two of those losses of the 10 losses were by 40 or more points um so majority of them have been fairly close and kind of similar to the Sydney Swans Brisbane are the opposite they are strong starters and poor finishers and that started you know in the opening round against Carlson will bring up that game so back in the opening round Carlton won 86 points to 85 Brisbane had 25 scoring shots to Carlton's 21 and if we look at the Timeline here Brisbane Midway through the uh second quarter had a 46o lead and then Caron were able to get back in front on the on the back of we'll quickly count on two three four five six seven eight straight goals got back the lead the game stayed very even and very low scoring from that point forward and Carlton running out winners thanks to a late goal from Harry mcki to win that game by one point that'll obviously be in the back of the mind a little bit off the brisman players but I do think they get over the line here the key with Brisbane is playing the four quarters if we look at their stats this season they really have a tendency of showing up early they're the number one first quarter side fifth best second quarter side from there it starts to kind of go down here their points scored in the third quarter ranked 14th in that category thankfully they perform well defensively however in fourth quarters they're ranked 11th and 14th now if you look at Carlton they go from one of the worst second quarter size to a bit better in the third to a top four fourth quarter side so I feel like the kind of timeline of this game is Brisbane are going to get out of the blocks they're going to have a big lead and then whether Carlson can run them down which I don't think they're going to be able to do but we've seen recently like if you look through brisbane's record like they could have easily not lost a game they could be 12 and0 since they by so they lost a whole around 11 and then from that point have won 10 of their next 12 games however they lost against gws and lost against Collingwood and if you look at the timeline for both of those games they really shouldn't have lost they had you know game they had winnable leads in both games well into the second half but managed to lose them so can Carlson overrun them I don't think they can but brisman have consistently made a habit of getting out to leads and not playing out four quarters can they do that in finals like if they do that Beyond this week um they're going to get eliminated they need to put four quarters together to be winning other factors for this game uh if we go through uh Brisbane are really good defensive side and that's where the key difference between these two sides are Brisbane ranks second in points conceded and give up the second least inside 50s to the opponent whereas Carlton's defense ranked 14th in points consider see the 11th most inside 50s whereas Brisbane should be controlling the ball a lot down there end of the field get plenty of shots on goal and just need to be accurate with those shots and they'll win this game comfortably for Carlton looking at their efficiency ratings from an attacking perspective they do generate the most goals per inside 50 so they are the most efficient side in the league Brisbane do need to be able to stop that to make sure they win this game and they are ranked 12th in opponent goals per inside 50 so it is a little era of concern for them um so I do think brisban win this game I think they win by Between the 20 and 30 points do think this is another game where the line is pretty much spot on brisman should run out winners I'd be targeting them early in the game with your bats wait for lineups though as that's going to be the most crucial Factor so that's how I'm looking at playing the games this for the first week of the finals I like Port ad to be jalong also interested in the overs like Hawthorne as an underdog against the Western Bulldogs I'm somewhat interest in the overs but I think both sides defensively are very good but I think the Hawks can break down the Bulldogs defense Sydney versus gws think the swans win that game but I think it's a good game for a tri bet either side 1 to 24 and Brisbane versus Carlton Brisbane should run over the top of Carlton and uh look to back them early in that game as I think they'll come out strong in that first quarter and first half like we've had really good success of backing them to do this season so thanks guys for watching make sure you subscribe have notifications on so you don't miss the followup video to this break down these games a little bit further we'll go through player props once lineups are out disposals goal scorers all that stuff and go through um some other bets for these games so thanks for watching and I'll talk to you guys soon [Music]