Wednesday 5pm Tropical Update: Hurricane Francine makes landfall as a Category 2 storm

Good afternoon. It is five o'clock. Thank you for joining us as we continue our coverage of hurricane Francine, which has just made landfall south southwest of Morgan City in Terrebonne Parish. We're taking a live look now from the Louisville toll plaza here where we, we know that it has been down that area, very windy, very rainy and lots of storm surge. There's some water as you can see all along that bridge in that area. And, uh, it has been rocking and rolling all through Lafoe and Terrebonne over the last hour, hour and a half the winds have been picking up. They're seeing, uh, power outages again, uh, as the storm moves up, up, up through Southeast Louisiana, I mean, it really is starting to feel the worst of it. Communities that are farther toward, uh, metropolitan New Orleans and then up toward the north shore. Brace yourselves because it's coming. Yeah, we are now in the thick of it, at least for the next few hours. This is when we're going to feel the brunt of those impacts. We've been seeing the rain and the wind all day long, but we've really started to see it intensify over about the last hour and a half. Absolutely making landfall as a category two hurricane. Um, I need to verify that with Chris category two hurricane, it made landfall as, as a category two storm. Ok. Um, so we were expecting a one for, for quite some time then. Now it has turned to a two. So, um, you know, that's where we are. Uh, that's what's going in the history books. Yes. And our meteorologists have been keeping a very close eye on the developments. Any strengthening the path all of the above. We're gonna head over right now to meteorologist Alexa Trisler with the latest update, Alexa. Yeah. So it has a officially made landfall in Terrebonne Parish about 30 miles south southwest of Morgan City. And now that it's moving inland, the worst of the impacts will be spreading inland for Terrebonne Parish, for our bayou parishes and river parishes will be seeing the worst of the weather over the next couple of hours. Now that the eye is making landfall, it has made landfall. We'll continue to see those hurricane force winds spread over lower Terrebonne Parish over the next couple of hours. Holma at Thibodeaux, seeing that heavy rain there is a flash flood warning in a effect for Houma. So now is the time, of course, you don't wanna go outside exploring to see what's happening. This is when you wanna stay indoors and just wait this thing out as we get through the worst of the weather that's going to continue to happen throughout the rest of the evening into tonight. We'll kind of look across the area and see where those rain bands are setting up. The whole entire Southeast Louisiana, South Mississippi here, seeing those heavy downpours pushing in across the area. So it, it was surprising. Yes, it did increase to a category to strength at landfall. But now as it is moving inward, even though we're seeing the worst of the impacts as it moves inland over land, it will weaken as we go throughout the rest of tonight, but still expecting the worst of the impacts happening now and then we'll see those immediately improving conditions going into the overnight hours. So the roughest of the rain and the winds happening and the surge happening right now. So this is when you want to wait it out and hopefully we don't lose power uh and across too many spots, but it is certainly a possibility. We could see some power outages the rest of tonight. We've got those heavier bands pushing in for the North shore from Slidell to Covington for Tang Ofa HOA Parish, Washington Parish, South Mississippi, heavy downpours coming into Hancock County. There is a little bit of a break in the rain for parts of the South shore. So Saint Bernard and Plain seeing a break in the rain, but it just comes and goes. It ebbs and flows with the heaviest of the showers, but the strongest of the, the convection or the storms really focused in that eye wall from Thibodaux to Houma to Galeao. That's where the strongest of the winds and the heaviest of the downpours and the strongest of those of tropical storm force and hurricane force winds are happening right in that eye wall and right as the eye moves on shore, this is where the worst of the weather is happening for our coastal bayou parishes. And then those impacts will be spreading northeastward. So it's possible that this kind of wobbles a little bit to the east and and moves in this north northeaster direction, bringing the strongest of the winds over our river parishes heading into this evening. So this is what we have actually a new flash flood warning in effect for Lefou Parish because this is just some very heavy rain with this eye wall moving in really heavy downpours of from gal or the th extremely heavy rain coming in right now. So flooded roadways certainly happening across our bayou parishes at this point. So heavy downpours continuing to see this flash flooding a possibility over the next couple of hours. So, unfortunately, that's what we have going into right now into tonight. The worst of the weather is here, but at least we'll be getting it over with. I know by the overnight hours this will be basically out of here. So at least we're getting into the worst of the weather. Now, as that eye wall has made it on shore, the eye has made landfall in Trebon Parish just south southwest of Morgan City by about 30 miles. So the eye has made it on shore landfall has happened in Trebon Parish. So we just have to wait it out. Get through these heavy uh heavy bands, get through the strong winds and then overnight tonight, we'll be seeing quieter weather coming in. We've been talking about how it kind of blossomed and strengthened up right before it made landfall. And you can see that depicted very well on our satellite. It looked like, you know, it was gonna maintain itself as a cat one and then boom, those storms really started to fire up right before we got to landfall. But as it moves over land, that weakening will start to take shape later this evening, don't want to downplay the impacts that we're seeing now because we are gonna, the heavy rain and the very strong winds across the area and they'll continue into tonight. But the dry air that we've been talking about it is gonna continue to wrap around it. And that's why some of the heaviest of the rain is starting to show up on the northern and western side of the system now. So let's look at those wind gusts happening across the area because the winds are really picking up especially offshore. So our offshore oil rigs that are a little bit higher uh off the ground by like 100 ft are really seeing the highest wind gusts. They're a little bit elevated. Uh Yeah, sorry. Someone's talking to me in my ear. Could you say that again? Sorry. Oh, what are we showing now? Ok. Ok. We're gonna, ok, we're gonna get Chris over here now but yeah, we're taking a live look. Where are we looking at right now? Show van. ok. Yeah, seeing the heaviest of the the impacts happening across our coastal spots now. So are you, are you popping in? Yeah, we're gonna show you. This is live TV. Folks. Yes. The show van camera down toward where the storm is now making landfall just showing the inundation of the area. This is a camera we've been showing you since earlier this morning. So Pe Malone was showing this camera still had pretty dry conditions but steadily that storm surge is moving inland and will continue to do so again, as we had talked to Jamie Rome a little while ago from the hurricane center, he said some areas will begin seeing improvements with the storm surge levels fairly shortly and then others, it will, will be a bit ongoing. Again, we have a very large coastline, all of the coastline is being impacted by the storm surge. Some areas may start to improve. Certainly out toward vermilion Cameron Parish, maybe western ST Mary Parish. We'll start to see improving conditions. However, for Terrebonne Lafoe Jefferson plaques. We have the storm surge still moving in and really, it won't be until the storm center is a bit farther to the north. And we then have that wind direction change. As Alexa had mentioned, we did affect as of the five o'clock advisory have landfall of Francine. It will go down in the record books as a category 21 thing and something that uh you know, great respect for the folks at the hurricane center, they do amazing work. Forecast models are impeccable with their forecast compared to other models. However, it is a little and this is something that even Jamie kind of alluded to as well. It does tend to be a little misleading when you have that. What seems to be a sudden jump in those winds and that increase in the category. So we went from 90 mile an hour winds, those had been maintained since last night, all day today. And then suddenly it looked like we had this explosion in strength and that just did not happen. We did have a little burst of thunderstorms, convection that I had mentioned, but that really wasn't. What was the driving force? What was the driving force was not actually a land based observation. When the hurricane hunters are flying in a storm, they are collecting data kind of from their flight level down to the surface. They can use algorithms to figure out what their winds are at flight level and kind of figure out what it may be estimated down at the surface. Now, this is usually a fairly accurate estimate, but that is where that wind speed of 100 miles an hour came from, not from any of our land based observations. As you can see, the storm is only 30 miles away from Morgan City and the winds there 44 miles an hour. Now, I don't want to downplay it too much, but I also don't want people too worked up about the category two ca uh uh uh classification or those winds of 100 miles an hour. That really doesn't change anything that we're expecting with the impacts throughout the rest of the night and into the day tomorrow. Now, one thing Jamie did mention is that we could see this and you almost watch there is the track center line of that track. So we are still falling within the comb, but we have seen is notice how the center of the storm is a little bit more on the eastern side of that track. So it has been favoring a li or on the western side. So it almost looks like it's favoring a little bit more on the east, which again would put maybe the brunt of the storm a little bit more over Metro New Orleans here is kind of what had been a little bit more of that well defined eye wall and that is what is pushing across Thibodeaux right now, we were getting the reports from, uh Lily Cummings in Houma. And while she, she actually, I just forgot what the text the last text was. I think it was over 40 miles an hour. Uh, she was getting of her weather station that we've set up with our mobile forecast center. So we're getting the winds accurately read in Houma, that was within the eye wall. So within the eye wall itself and again, not to downplay it at all. We're only finding sustained winds of 40 plus miles an hour. So really just barely at those of a tropical storm, certainly some stronger wind gusts. But all the reports that we are getting has been, the winds have been more tame than what 100 mile an hour maximum wind speed would kind of make you believe. Now again, I do not want to downplay that at all. It is still dangerous to be out on the roads and you definitely do not want to be out in this storm through the rest of the afternoon and into the night tonight. So I don't want to downplay, but I also want to give you a sense of reality and what is actually happening. That was something I kind of talked a little bit about a moment ago, was in yesterday. And Mon, what is today Wednesday yesterday, Monday, even into the weekend, it was more of the forecast. Is it Wednesday? We, it is Wednesday. Yes. I don't think anybody here knows we were talking more about the, the, the forecast where it's, it's very much our estimated guesses of what will happen. Where is the storm gonna go kind of analyzing the structure of the storm, figuring out what the impacts are going to be at this point. I'm not as reliant upon the models as we've kind of seen. The models have a little bit more overestimated what is actually happening in reality. And that's why it does help us as meteorologists, us as a news organization and then to provide to you why we have people out in the field. I know sometimes we're kind of criticized for, we're telling you to be inside, but then we're sending people out and about we are trying to keep, we are keeping them safe, but trying to provide you the information that is actually happening. So hopefully you're not in, but you're able to see what is actually going on. All right, stepping off my soap box for a minute, those heavier rain bands and some of the gustier winds are certainly moving in the direction of New Orleans. We don't have much longer before we get into some of these more intense rains, flash flood warnings are rampant with those bands moving through. So that is what we can expect over the course of the next several hours. Now, at the moment, a little bit of a break from the more intense rains kind of a steady rain across the area and then these little pockets of some brief heavy downpours, but boy, the rain moves very, very quickly and that has been the one thing that's going to work in our favor is just how fast the rain is pushing through and how fast this storm is going to move out of southeast Louisiana. Rain on the north shore has become a little bit more intense over the last hour or two. We're getting a bit more of those pockets of the moderate to heavy rainfall and that is going to continue throughout the rest of the evening and night. Visible satellite doesn't really give us a clear picture. I was hoping we see a little bit more of a break from those clouds with that drier air, we can switch over to our infrared and you don't see the intense storms offshore. So what we're going to be watching through the rest of this evening is going to be what rain is south of Southeast Louisiana, what the intensity of those storms are because that is really what's going to be moving over most of the area. But we also have had that little burst of convection right before the four o'clock advisory. It looks like that may be kind of falling apart a bit. And hopefully now with the storm on land, we should start to see further weakening of the storm although it is moving so quickly that is not going to really happen very, very rapidly. And something else to note, one thing I had done was when the five o'clock advisory came out, I immediately went to Google Earth typed in the coordinates to see where exactly that center point was and it was inland over Terrebonne Parish. So it made landfall. However, if you were to go to Google Earth and type in those coordinates of where the storm is right now, it's not land, it's marsh. So it is that Brown Ocean effect, which means it's still over warm water, it is still able to kind of generate a bit of energy. So if you're hoping for kind of a to rapidly weaken, that's not going to happen. But as I've said, thankfully, those maximum winds first off, I don't think there's gonna be anyone that finds 100 mile per hour winds anywhere. And second, thankfully that windfield is very, very small and sometimes kind of misleading when we're talking about these storms sometimes uh seemingly contradictory. We talk about the winds, we talk about everything else and then we say don't mention or don't focus on that. Don't pay attention to this. It is tropical systems are very complicated. A lot that goes into the impacts, a lot that goes into what it could possibly do. And there has been discussions, I've mentioned that with Jamie Rome about, do we actually have other scales aside from the Ser Simpson scale, which just takes into account those maximum wins. There have been discussions, should there be a scale for rain? Should there be a scale for wind and storm surge and other uh uh flooding on the coast? Flooding from inland rainfall? Uh It'd be too complicated. So the best that we have is the Saffron Simpson scale to kind of base it on those winds. But as Jamie also mentioned that 100 mile an hour wind is one observation at one point in the storm. It is not a very good representative of the entirety of the storm. Believe me, there have been other category two storm with winds of 100 MPH that were far more dangerous and far more powerful than hurricane Francine is. And that is certainly good news to us. As the storm is moving inland radar, we're going to continue with the intense rain. But notice there isn't a great deal even south. So we may get into some breaks if that drier air is playing the role that we have been talking about and hoping would occur, wind sustained at Morgan City 52 miles an hour. Now, it is inching closer at the four o'clock advisory or excuse me at the five o'clock advisory. It was only a 50 it's only 30 miles away. So last 15 minutes, it has already moved another 17 miles. So it is a little closer to Morgan City right now. But winds there 52 miles an hour. So we're just in the kind of mid low to mid tropical storm range from a category two hurricane. That's why those 100 mile per hour winds are a little bit misleading. Now, we don't officially have data in HOA, but we have Lily Cummings that can provide the HOA data for us. And if she's listening to me, maybe she can text me a little bit uh what the winds are doing there, note how the winds have been gusting now to 40 plus miles an hour over the metro area. So we are kind of getting the, uh, nearing that, um, kind of now broadening out Northeastern Eye wall of Francine is inching a little bit closer to the metro area. So sustained winds have say roughly about 30 miles an hour, but gusting to 40 plus miles an hour and those winds will be spreading farther to the North Shore, uh, really not too much longer from now as the storm will continue to pick up a little bit of that forward speed. Now, based upon the models, notice this is what the model thinks the winds are doing right now. 30 to near 40 miles an hour. So again, we'll go back in time to you forgot. We're looking at about 30 miles an hour with gusts up to about 40 miles an hour. So that's what's happening right now. 30 it's kind of, uh, maybe overestimating the numbers a little bit. So keep that in mind when you look at these numbers, 40 to 50 MPH and gusting 60 to even 80 miles an hour. I do think those are more on the high end of a forecast. If it was me, I would say we're probably looking at 40 plus mile an hour, maybe 40 to 50 as a safe bet for the sustained winds over the metro area in the next few hours. So this is eight o'clock. So this is only in three hours from now. And gusting, I would say 60 to 70 I think 80 mile an hour wind gust is very, very much on the high end. But a lot of it will uh be determined by just how close the center and that eye wall is able to get to Metro New Orleans. Jamie mentioned that fact that it could be a little bit closer. And even if it is just off to our west, we're still on some of the strongest winds with that eye wall on the northeastern and then eastern side of it as it continues to move farther. Those winds spread farther north onto the north shore. And by overnight tonight, after midnight, winds will immediately start to diminish and changing direction in a direction that would favor pushing all of that water storm surge, water out of the lake away from the coast. And we will start to immediately start to see, we will immediately see improving conditions. A lot of these totals are probably being experienced right now from Morgan City down toward Coca Tree as the storm is moving inland. So we'll kind of take a look at some of the water levels coming up here in a bit but 3 to 6 ft is what was anticipated and probably nearing that right now. Now, as far as areas outside or excuse me, not outside but east of the mouth of the river and into the lake, we're probably not quite to the highest point just yet that will likely peak later this year. Well, I should say more like later tonight and through the overnight as the storm center is a little bit closer to the lake and to the north shore. So probably starting to see improving conditions in the next couple of hours along our coastline. And then as you go farther north, it may take a little bit later into the night for conditions to start improving there. Wave heights estimated offshore are running 20 to 30 ft and that's a very, very rough estimate. That's not storm surge. Those are the wave heights but even notice how the storm itself, what is a fairly small and, and as far as tropical systems go, a fairly weaker storm, it's, you know, again, just at a uh I don't wanna say just it is only, I don't wanna say only it is at the low end our scale. And again, those winds of 100 miles an hour are fairly isolated. But note what the winds of the, excuse me, wave heights are doing across most of the Gulf Basin is that they have been kicked up by Francine, which is a fairly little storm. One thing that we have also been talking about and thankfully haven't seen a ton of are the threat for those weak short lived tornadoes that threat will be ongoing as we go throughout the rest of this afternoon and into the evening as far as where the heaviest of the rainfall will occur, I do believe with that wind shear and kind of the drier air moving in. We may see drying conditions as soon as the latter part of this evening, going into the night tonight, just looking at radar right now offshore and we'll go back to that radar. Uh I'm not seeing a great deal of additional storms, uh, farther south and east of the, uh, center of Francine. So kind of this is the, let's uh, wait for the image to come up here and kind of widening out a little bit and scaling over notice there isn't a, a great deal. It's not like we're looking at another huge swath of rainfall. We actually get pockets of heavy rainfall. Certainly, we're not gonna be done with the rain, but we're also getting a lot of breaks in the rainfall so that really should work in our favor as we go throughout the latter part of the night. What with that said, we still have some of the heaviest of the rainfall to go that is moving in kind of what has now become a very large eye wall. But this is where you're gonna find the strongest winds and some of the heavier rainfall. And that is moving toward the metro area at this time. HOA Lily getting a little bit of a break at the moment with the eye wall now almost having completely, completely past Houma. But you do find some very intense rain just to your north, moving toward Thibodeaux right now, Morgan City getting into that heavy rain as well. The Allmans Race link cut off Galiano Lee Port Foch on kind of what almost looks to be a band is actually the entirety of the eye wall which looks like it has almost expanded out a bit. It had been a little bit more compact and looks like that is kind of spreading out a bit more as we go uh further into the storm making landfall and further moving inland. Wanted to also look at what the winds are doing across the area. We're taking a look at those a moment ago, but just to show you as you kind of get an idea of where the eye wall is, what the winds are doing within the eye wall itself. Uh Galliano is at 17 sustained, gusting up to 35 sustained at Gonzalez 36 months, miles an hour, eye wall is kind of right in through here. So not quite to kenner yet. 26 mile an hour winds gusting up to 4130 at lakefront, gusting up to 45. We will likely see those winds increase. Something to note though. About lakefront airport is, it's a little bit more exposed. So you don't have the wind, uh, moving across land, which is what helps to slow the winds down, the friction of land. Uh That's why almost always the winds along the coastline are gonna be much, much stronger because you don't have that friction with interaction of land. You just have it moving over seemingly smooth water surfaces and then inland is where you have slut, a little bit less wind because you have that interaction with the land. So Lakefront Airport usually has stronger winds compared to surrounding areas. Bell Chase right now, 22 mile an hour, wind sustain or excuse me, sustain gusting up to 33 miles an hour. So winds are starting to pick up. We are getting some of the heavier rainfall moving through at the moment and again, officially, uh Francine made landfall in southern Terrebonne parish kind of extreme southwester Trebon which was about 30 miles south southwest of Morgan City. It is moving inland about 17 miles an hour. Hopefully that forward speed continues to increase. Winds have started to pick up here. The rainfall will be increasing as well, and we will continue to see kind of, uh, worsening conditions as we go throughout the night. But then by early tomorrow morning, not long after midnight, already improving. Stay with us. We'll be right back.