Top 10 Breakout Candidates | Late-Round Fantasy Football Draft Targets (2024)

Introduction Hello everybody welcome into the fantasy pros football podcast I'm Ryan warmley joined today by Pat Fitz Morris and by Derek Brown dbo you were just telling us you have finally seen Deadpool and Wolverine we won't take too much time on this I promise but I have been asking you to see it at in Canon at the Expo I was like please let's go see it now I want to talk to you about this movie how fun is that movie oh dude no spoilers I'm not going to give anybody spoilers cuz we talked about this in Canton I said I would kick you below the belt if you gave me any spoilers and I meant every word of you didn't say below the belt fair and everybody can take that as you please but dude it was amazing like I'm on cloud nine right now man like it is glorious it is a beautiful beautiful day and I'll tell you this I going to go see it again next week I don't care if I know what already happens I'm going again the important thing is that it's just a fun time right like I'm not saying it's the best Marvel movie ever I'm not saying it's this alltime great script I had some problems with like some of the stuff they did the ending whatever it was just a really two hours at the movie theater it's it really rewards you if you are a big superhero movie fan at least to me personally your mileage may vary everybody can disagree I knew you would love it which is why I wanted you to see it uh and uh yeah I had a lot of fun seeing that also Debo I already asked Fitz this earlier this week have you fully recovered from the Expo yet dude it's legit like um I just now like so when I came home that day and when I Monday oh I was so tired dude those 3 and 4:00 a.m. nights while they might not hurt Fitzy that much the rest of us are definitely licking our wounds was there any was there any night fits that we didn't close down Georges no there was not unfortunately and thank God my voice is better I sounded like the keeper the entire time we were in Canton I I needed I need a couple of days to to get the voice back to at least something close to normal so uh hopefully we're getting close to that at this point uh all right we're going to jump in here to uh our top 10 breakout candidates in 2024 it is exactly what it sounds like guys that we think um are going to really smash this year so we're going to be drafting a lot of them in all of our leagues just a heads up for everybody all of our 2024 consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros.com rankings all right let's dive into our breakout candidates here we're going to go five to one for each of you bits we'll start with you give you give us Pat Freiermuth your number five breakout candidate It's Pat friou and we just did a preseason fantasy Roundtable this week you can find it on fantasypros.com or look on my Twitter timeline uh to find it and we talked about our tight end strategy preferred tight end strategy for 2024 Debro Erikson and Mike Mayer all advocated the elite tight end strategy and I'm the Lone Wolf who wants to Leverage What I consider to be unusual depth at the tight end position like there's some pretty nice options after tight end eight um Jake Ferguson Brock Bowers who I'm I'm very very into David nooku and if you want to exercise extreme patience uh hammer away at the running back in wide receiver positions in the early round and then grab be like one of the last guys in your draft to grab a tight end uh Pat fouth is going anywhere from tight end 12 to tight end 15 so let's start with the premise that I think Pat fouth is actually a pretty good player uh 15 touchdowns his first two years at Penn State in an offense that doesn't really feature tight end all that much um on the the John Macky award watch list going into his junior year but got hurt only played four years was averaging 77 yards a catch before he got hurts then goes to the Steelers as a second round pick in 2021 60 catches 70 touchdowns as a rookie not a great yardage total just 497 um but then he goes into year two 63 C uh 63 catches 732 yards only two touchdowns but he had Kenny picket and Mitch Tri as his primary quarterbacks that year uh last year only 12 games due to injury it was kind of a wipe out the Steelers had the the shaky QB situation again now um better QB situation with either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields um and like the target Outlook looks very good and we should issue the disclaimer that as of this recording the Steelers were possibly on the verge of a Brandon iuk trade that maybe by the time this video comes out has gone down already I think even if auk does go to the Steelers Fri MTH probably looking like the number three Target in Pittsburgh and um like targets to go around for him and I I still think he is very well positioned to uh return a profit on his uh late low-end te1 high-end te2 ADP um but if there's no iuk if that deal falls apart and it's just George Pickins and and really Fri mouth is the next guy because the Steelers wide receiver core is thin um then all of a sudden the target Outlook gets much better and now to the good parts the much maligned Arthur Smith is the new offensive coordinator and play caller for the Steelers and yes this is actually the good part I know Arthur Smith is the Boogeyman to a lot of fantasy managers but um Smith is a former tight ends coach and last year with him as the head coach and primary play caller for the Falcons Falcons tight ends combined for 174 targets 114 catches 1380 yards and seven touchdowns and granted those numbers were chopped up among Kyle pittz jnu Smith and some other tight ends uh but there like aren't really a lot of other tight ends to share the load with fouth this year there's Darnell Washington a day two pick last year but really more of a blocker like a sixth offensive lineman type was not a prolific pass catcher at the University of Georgia Georgia uh there's Conor Hayward m michle puit not much there so it's not hard to see uh maybe the first 100 Target season of Pat Fri Mo's career and I think he could maybe if he can blend those seven touchdowns he had in his rookie season with the 700 plus yards he had in his second season now we're on to something and you're turning a nice profits uh at the tight end position with a pretty low expenditure yeah Deb I I'm curious your you opinion not just on fire mouth but on tight end strategy I am definitely somebody who is championing the elite tight end approach this year that's less because you it's less about how I feel about the depth of the position and more about I just really love those like top six or seven guys I think any one of them could finish his tight Ed one like realistically I just really love that group um if I am not getting one of those Elite guys by and large in in all the leagues where I'm passing on them I'm getting Pat Fruth he is my favorite of these if you're going to wait on tight end I think he's the right Target here so I love him as a breakout candidate DB what do you think yeah I I'll be honest boys um I've probably been a little bit too low on fth um and some of this just I don't know what to do with the Pittsburgh Steelers offense after pickings and the running backs um agnostic of the quarterback because I I just don't know how good they're going to be you know like with the touchdown ceiling we know that like the lifeblood of tight ends is not only the targets and the upside and that those respects and the yardage but can they get t touchdowns and we've just seen Arthur Smith do a lot of wonky things in the Red Zone whether we know we're going to get weeks we know this boys we're going to get weeks where we have cordal Patterson involved in the Red Zone it's it's coming it's going to happen I get that but I will absolutely acknowledge I'm probably too low on farth like as Pat's going through the Spiel like I was like man I need to bump him up I had him at tight end 20 I bumped him up um to tight end 17 right now I think the case for him start somewhere around tight end 13 Pat where do you have him in ranks right now because I just feel like there's other guys and good offenses like I feel like he's in that long kind of tier of like Cole KT Schultz jonu Smith where their targets are really going to be but they're all locked inside of really dang good offenses so like I'm wondering if touchdowns carry them there but where do you have farmy with I'm guessing what tight end 12 13ish is that too high 12 behind the joku and ahead of Dallas CD okay yeah I I don't hate that so he he is just so everybody knows he's tied in 13 in consensus and he's 118th overall I want to be above consensus on him so I actually have him probably a little too aggressively honestly at tight end 10 I might bump him down a spot or two but I do want to be ahead of consensus on Fri mouth because he is I mean he's just one of the guys that I'm drafting the most of I I really like the cost and I think the the upside is apparent if things break right for him uh um so like I said I I just I want to be aggressive on him that might be a little too aggressive D Josh Palmer let's go to your number five breakout candidate well it's a guy though you know you've heard me and Ericson kind of uh wax poetic about previously so nobody's GNA be shocked about that but it's Josh Palmer man um I get that he's wide receiver 55 and ECR and stuff but I think that's definitely Blasphemous I mean what we saw out of him last year with no Mike Williams in the lineup we're look we're talking about a wide receiver that garnered almost a 19% Target share produced 2.19 yards per route run which is awesome and average 71.1 receiving yards per game and I know everybody's thinking okay well the Chargers are not going to throw the ball like we've seen in previous Seasons I get that but what if Palmer and not everybody's favorite son lad makoni but what if Palmer is the wide receiver one of this offense and everything that everybody's projecting and hoping for for makoni and the thing about him is how much outside does he play like is he going to be a guy that plays when they only have two wives I don't know about that like that's something that's seriously a concern it easily could be Palmer and DJ CH and while that's not like a coffin nail for him that can be the difference between an 80 to 90% route share and 68 70% in living in the 70s so Palmer I think has the talent and I have not been a play somebody that was immensely high on Palmer in previous years but he really showed out last year when the avenue to step up was there and that definitively is presenting itself again in 2024 so again a player that I think really already made a leap in front of our eyes and I think you can take another step forward this season I like the polymer call um and looking at our staff rankings and guys feel free to correct me if these are not up to date yet I see Palmer wide receiver 41 for UD de bro and wide receiver 56 for you Fitz I do have them a lot closer to Debo for me the question mark is not the offense like how much are they going to throw like they will throw enough that with with Justin Herbert as your quarterback and with you being the only and you being Josh Palmer with you being the only like proven to any degree Target in the offense like they will throw enough that I think he can be like a very successful draft pick for you and qualify as a breakout the concern for me is not Greg Roman it's the health of Justin Herbert like I just get worried with any kind of foot injury and if Herbert is not in the picture in any game like Palmer everybody in this offense is completely unst startable in my opinion outside of maybe the running backs so like for me that's what I'm keeping a closer eye on less so than the kind of run pass balance from Greg Roman I think the pass will be heavy enough that the top guy will be valuable Fitz why are you a bit lower on Palmer just the Run heaviness of the offense under Greg Roman inevitable they're going to be top three in run rate like that's just the the Greg Roman offense but you know like I I don't know if there's a splashy upside for Palmer because we do know I think that lad m K is going to draw a lot of the short area targets but I do think Palmer compliments him pretty nicely as like the Intermediate uh guy and like his targets are going to be worth more than the lad makoni targets and Herbert's got a great arm so like that's a good pairing for Josh Palmer a guy who can zip it to him uh 15 or 20 yards down field so yeah I mean like I think Palmer is a really good value because he does not get overdrafted like he's not a a sexy name that people are dying to get their hands on and usually he's there in in you know something close to the double digigit rounds and uh a pretty good option is like your your fourth wide receiver yeah I I love the fact that you brought that up Fitz because that's the volume concerns I think are more damning for makoni because of his role I love that you hit on that because that's the other part about Palmer when people say okay well the volume's a big concern okay it's more of a concern for somebody that's going to have to make all their living and the short area and really create a lot for themselves whereas if it's not dj CH that's going to stretch the field I think it's going to be Josh Palmer so those are the things that kind of can help Band-Aid the fact that his volume is going to be decreased from previous seasons can I throw out just another JK Dobbins Chargers option as a breakout candidate I think JK dobins qualifies especially we saw kind of some of the beat reporting that like videll might not make the team even like we'll see how that ultimately ends up playing out but we're talking about how this is going to be such a run heavy offense we've talked talked about how he's kind of a a high upside you know play talking about Dobbins throughout the offseason but all the reports out of camper that he looks really explosive and like remark is running remarkably well given the injury stuff like I get that again your mileage may vary if you are somebody who's been burned by Dobbins before and doesn't want to take the risk on the injury but where he's going I know you guys are like a little bit lower um than the rest of the staff on him I I just think he's the type of person who could fit this bill really well and we could be sitting here in week three and be saying like this guy looks like arguably a League winner where he's going DB what do you think about dobins just as a quick aside yeah I I I could see the upside with the volume it's just it's twofold for me health and what do we get out of him from a tackle breaking perspective like I just I worry that this backfield is going to turn into like a muddied mess like I I don't know if Dobbins can assert himself to be like a 15 to 17 touch per game player both with Gus there and videll and well hell Jarrett Patterson whoever the rv3 is I wonder if like you know everybody's concerns a little bit about Derrick Henry and like oh Justice Hill and other guys like and how they split the backfield up I wonder if we get that type of backfield where it's like we've got two to three options that are really going to be touchdown dependent flexes and not enough volume for him to truly step up even if he is 100% which again I still kind of wary about Fitz I don't even need to ask you about Dobbins I know that you have two main concerns health and also health so exactly yeah I mean that's it as much as I would like to see a fairy tale ending here I'm just not betting on a running back who's uh had a torn Achilles and major reconstructive knee surgery that that's fair I just want to throw him out because we're talking about the Chargers and I just he he's become at Cost my favorite running back to Target in that backfield Laton drafts it's time to throw another shrimp on the barbie get in on all the UFC 305 action live from the landown under at draftking Sportsbook the official sports betting partner of UFC the middleweight title is on the line for the main event but the card is stacked full of rip snort BLS and Sheilas and speaking of stacked if you're new to DraftKings listen up new customers bet $5 to get $150 in bonus bets instantly download the DraftKings Sportsbook app now and use code fantasy pros that's codee fantasy pros for new customers to get $150 in bonus bets when you bet just five bucks UFC 305 it's going to be a Rippa of a good time only on DraftKings the crown is yours are you giving away a blooming onion with that with that read that was really good worm the first time I heard you do that read you didn't really commit to the bit like you kind of half did it but that time you really leaned into it well done I thought Debo would appreciate I'm not much of a uh impressionist or an accent person but you know it's it's easy cuz it's all all the same phrases you hear Australians like it's like the kind of The Stereotype stuff anyway but uh I I also you went a little bit like slightly crocodile hunter but not full I'm not good at accidents I was going to say I always went to slide into like going back to some of the Seinfeld conversation like maybe the dingo H yel Rashid Shaheed baby oh good lord which I'm sure D doesn't even get that reference all right let's go let's go to number four from Fitz it's rashed Shahed and I'm not just pandering to Debro the Saints fan with this um so Shahed had 46 catches 719 yards and five touchdowns for the Saints last year but he missed two games and only had a 58% snapshare um now Shahid is pretty much cemented in as the Saints number two receiver behind Chris that snapshare is likely to be closer to say I don't know maybe like 75% this year so more opportunities uh higher Target volume more chances for big plays and shiita is a dangerous big play receiver I mean we've seen it on some of his kick returns this guy's explosive of his 46 catches last year seven of them covered 40 or more yards uh he averaged 16.3 yards per catch in his first two NFL seasons he's averaging a ridiculous 11.1 yards per targets uh sh's just a good player like I think there's wide receiver two upside here and I know not everyone is excited about investing in anyone who is TE to Derek Carr but I mean like Carr can Carr can make his receivers go over for fantasy like earlier in his career he actually supported two, yard receivers uh with the Raiders with Michael ctre and Amari Cooper so um oh and by the way you know if anything were H to happen to olave all a sudden Shahid is like the number one Target in this offense so um I I think there's a pretty attractive ceiling here for an explosive young player Debo you are the resident Saints guy what do you think about this pick she almost made my list I'm with Fitzy here and I think the other part about this is like you you you're this offense has been Consolidated down to because no Michael Thomas but Jawan Johnson being hurt and does another tight end and no no we're not going to go into a long conversation about Tamm Hill we're not doing that but I really think like you're looking at a Consolidated passing offense with really ove Shahed and chimra like leading the way and Shahed is a guy like I mean I know like what medium projections are probably around like 90 maybe 100 100 targets what if he gets into that 120 range and we get the downfield ability and he takes another step forward because again this is not like a sixth or seventh year player that we're talking about oh there's more opportunity here this is a young player who we really still have not seen Thrive or flourish and be in a full-time role for the entirety of an NFL season so so I I think there's tons of upside here I love the call by FY yeah it's funny she like was getting so much juice during Scott Fishbowl season because of those settings and I'm kind of needing to reset myself like oh you know he's also a pretty good Target in a normal league as well not just in Scott Fishbowl so I think it's a good call too DB who's your Rico Dowdle number four breakout candidate oh man I'm sorry I'm not going to be worried about the fossilized corpse of Ezekiel Elliott I'm just not I'm not worried about him I'm not worried about how the the old man Ezekiel Elliott like I want to be drafting a ton of Rico Dow uh where he's going I mean he's basically free money it's rb4 territory all freaking day and I think he's hands down the best running back on this roster and I think he can distance himself from Zeke I mean if you look at D it's really been all of the injuries he's a player that yes and there are OG Prospect stand tweets from myself from years ago about Rico D I think now he finally gets the opportunity to take hold of the backfield and and all we need is health I went back in earlier in this off season and I watched all the carriers from last year all of his all 22 and I was impressed like I don't think that he's a player that we're saying you put him in a stretch Zone scheme and he just runs away from people but as far as like one cut downhill powerful Runner that also guess what boys can play in the passing game amongst all running backs last year with at least 20 targets Rico D and I get it was a small sample was 11th in yards per route run now you managed you you marry that also amongst 53 qualifying backs he was six 16th and yards at to contact per attempt this is a player that I think we are sleeping on his upside because this is one of those things what we we play this game every year guys like where it's like ambiguous situation we don't know what to do with it it doesn't seem like it's great and so a lot of people just avoid it when I think we need to be running to Rico Dow in drafts 141st overall in Half Point uh PPR um ECR RB 44 Fitz what do you think about those numbers yeah it's an appealing price for him for sure and um like I don't know that I've settled on whether I think he's good yet but like I thought what he showed us last year looked pretty good and um but we do know running back is as much about opportunity as Talent if not more about the opportunity and he's going to get opportunity this year for sure because Zeke just cannot carry a Back Field the way he used to like four and five years ago um and we're hearing a lot about how like the the Titans Back Field is interchangeable with uh Tony Pard and Tai Spears having similar skill sets I mean maybe it's kind of the same way in Dallas to some degree because like we saw Zeke kind of do a lot as a pass catcher last year for New England and as D bro mentioned like uh definitely like dle is not a zero as a pass catcher so maybe either these guys could play Early Downs or either these guys could play Passing downs and I don't think it's like totally inconceivable that dle wounds up winds up out snapping Zeke on early Downs so um yeah for the price right now I mean he is a really nice D throw in the late rounds all right Fitz let's go to your Tyjae Spears number three you just alluded to him talking about Rico dat Tai Spears is your next guy up just give everybody has ECR 93rd overall RB 31 yeah so Tai J Spears he had 838 yards from scrimmage last year's a rookie despite the fact that he was playing behind Derrik Henry who led the NFL in rushing attempts so now Spears goes from playing behind an iconic Workhorse running back to sharing a backfield with Tony Pard who um look I'm I'm not gonna say that Tony Pard is is bad or anything but like he's coming off kind of a bad year or at least a disappointing year I mean we've seen Tony Pard look really good earlier in his career but now he's kind of a question mark going into this year so um and yes it may have been at least partially injury related like Pard had that broken foot in uh the playoffs the previous season started to look better towards the end of the 2023 regular season but um we have heard Brian Callahan the Titans new head coach talk about viewing Pard and Spears as co-starters as guys who can be used interchangeably even whether it's early Downs or on passing downs and Spears was really good in the passing game last year uh 52 receptions a 51.2% route participation rate Spears is going to have to share targets with Pard but Spears only had 100 carries last year and that number is sure to go up this year um easy to see him with a number of rushing attempts that's closer to like 150 60 maybe even north of that and uh by the way I mean I I think Brian Callahan's dad Bill Callahan is going to fix an offensive line that really didn't do the Titans running backs many favors last year Bill Callahan's probably one of the best offensive line coaches of all time I think they'll get that sorted and uh you know Spears looked really good last year 4.5 yards per carry behind that pretty mediocre offensive line um Matt Waldman who friend of the show and a guy whose player analysis we really value he's talked about how important it is for a running back to be able to make Cuts without throttling down their speed and I that's one of the things I I liked when I watched Tai Spears play last year that he seemed to be able to change direction really well without gearing down so um he does have that weird knee issue where he doesn't have any cartilage or whatever in one of his knees and and maybe that leads to a j AI type career where he has like you know one kind of big season and then falls off the map a little so I'm definitely more interested in him in redraft than Dynasty but I'm really interested in him in redraft for 2024 I've been kind of buying the dip on Pard a lot this draft season just because I mean we again Deb BR hadam is is already won last year and he was coming off an injury and now theoretically is you know more healthy than he was for the first half of last season so I like have been trying to get a lot of Tony Pard possibly at the expense of the spears I've been getting and I think that could actually backfire so I do like this call um Debra what do you make of Spears and what's the gap between him and Pard in your rankings I've got both of them as RB 3s I do have Tony Pard ahead of Spears but I like taking both of them both of them in um various instances I think earlier this week in the mock draft uh episode I took uh Taj Spears as my rb2 on a zero RB build um because he is a fantastic upside uh play like I have Pard at rb27 Spears is at rb33 I I I'm willing to own this I could be wrong on that like having Pard ranked over Spears because the talent I mean Fitzy nailed it the talent of Spears is fantastic I think they brought in Pard to limit Spears's touches because of the knee issues the history there but that doesn't mean that he can't still be really stinking good I mean what if this Titans offense outperforms expectations we get more touchdowns and I mean even from the sense of what if he's this year's Jaylen Warren Jaylen Warren was an rb2 or better in weekly scoring in 50% of his games so that's only like any a true like kind of committee aspect where maybe par takes the early down and Spears takes takes a little bit of the early down but most the pass game work there's upside here for more because we still don't have definitive clarity about how this backfield is truly going to shake out I love how Debo is like previewing the episode while we're taping he just tweeted Rico D breakout season incoming as we're talking about Rico D so little peek behind the curtain there he tweeted that while we were taping this stuff you always give me crap about like you know when I'm you always know what when I'm prepping and who I'm prepping for shows cuz you're like oh well here come the tweets just firing them off that makes me laugh uh I haven't seen any tweets yet about the next guy you're about to talk about give us your number three breakout candidate Jaleel McLaughlin it's because I've been talking about him since January people were tired of hear in about it but I think people are coming around man and they really really should on CH mlin again this week dropping on fantasy pros YouTube channel I have a mus have running back video dropping and guess what surprise mlin is in there baby i' I've been touting him since January because the path for upside is firmly there we know we want to buy into a Shawn Payton offense we want to buy the passing down back we want want to invest in that type of uh role and I think that is mcgloin's role to lose there is nothing that's come out of Denver Camp to this point that would make me think otherwise P Ryan is on the cut bubble we've been talking about that since the before the draft and looking at the role that mlfa could play I mean it's not only just that he was Uber freaking efficient with every touch that he got last year was top 15 explosive run rate Miss tackles Force per attempt and yards per route run it's also the fact that we know the volume there can be there for him in the P game and i' I've shared this before but it doesn't make it any less relevant Denver led the league in running back targets last year last nine years for Shawn pton coordinating an offense they've never finished lower than fourth so if you don't believe in mlin that's fine but the path is firmly there he's talented and all the offseason talk about him has been extremely positive so so I'm going to continue drafting him because again none of that has caught up with his ADP or his ECR any of it and I think it really like RB 47 in ECR wake up people give him some respect yeah 146th overall fits that's the that's the most affordable player of anybody we're talking about today I like him a lot and I've drafted him a lot and uh Debo kind of nailed it with the Shawn pyton offenses it was 153 running back targets for the Broncos last year and I think there was only one other team that had more than 130 so it is uh someone in the Denver backfield is going to be a wash in targets and like Payton has this history of committee backfields but with multiple members of the committee being fantasy viable like we saw that with Alvin CRA and Mark Ingram we saw it early in Payton's tenure in New Orleans with like Reggie Bush and I think Pierre Thomas so um yeah like I I think jalile could be part of that and it sounds like they really kind of like him as a uh a sort of good citizen on the Broncos a guy who's like one of the first in the facility and the last out every day like a guy who really wants to work at his craft and get better and like Shawn pyton has publicly called him out on that so it sounds like he's gonna have a a you know some sort of prominent role in that backfield if you want a chance to win a side Joe burrow helmet for free courtesy of our friends at auction.com all you need to do is head to fantasypros.com contest complete the form and either download the fantasypros draft Wizard app leave a review for the podcast or follow us on X Instagram or Tik Tok fantasypros the more actions you complete the more entries you receive we will be announcing a winner right here on the podcast if you're watching on YouTube be sure to subscribe and turn on those notifications so you can be alerted when new episodes are up and to claim your prize guys while we were taping Ian rap report tweeted out that JJ McCarthy news Vikings first- round quarterback JJ McCarthy under win a full miniscus repair this morning and is out for the 2024 season um obviously Debo is uh gonna need to take a moment here I assume I mean it's it's very sad obviously just to see anybody get hurt yeah out for the year I don't mean to make light of it but you know this has been one of D bro's guys throughout the draft season and he's been very you know much higher than him higher on him than consensus and uh it's a bummer I mean because he looked good you know early on on here for whatever that you know small sample size is worth and uh yeah just it just sucks Deb I'll kind of let you touch on this first it injuries freaking suck dude this sucks I mean for McCarthy especially going out and and having a chance in preseason and the the small sample size we got looked like a player who has made some sizable adjustments to his game in the off season um layered throws to the second level looking good throwing touch pass and a lot of that was littered in his college tape and that's why I was so immensely high on him and now losing his entire rookie season like and whether or not Sam darnold started the entire year or not it's really the practice reps because I didn't look at this season as like okay Vikings are pushing for the playoffs like I think that's next year but it it just blows man I mean that that him him being shell for the entire year because the injury it just hurts as far as his Ava availability to get the practice reps that he needs and we should all want for him but I think the Fallout of this too is looking at Sam darnold he's the unquestioned starter of the entire season for the Minnesota Vikings like unless he falls on his face then we get Nick Mullen but right now I mean come on guys where where do you think we should be moving Sam darnold like I had him at qb30 because of the situation still being up in the air um live right now I'm probably moving him up to oh I mean is QB 20 too high I had him at 27 before this in consensus he's at QB 34 so he's way low and that will certainly Rise um yeah I mean I think I've got him right behind Matthew Stafford I think in that mid qb2 low I think he's definitely qb2 I think he needs to be inside the top 24 knowing that he's going to be the starter of the whole season with the weapons that they have Fitz what do you think I'll probably put him in QB 24 behind Baker Mayfield uh I just the Vikings and really I have no love lost for the Vikings as a fan of the Green Bay Packers but that is like the most snake bitten franchise in the NFL and I know Cleveland Browns fans might take issue with that but um you know going all the way back to the the Gary Anderson Miss in the late 90s and um man I mean this is just like you know here's a franchise that's kind of trying to retool and and I mean they've had like they had a draft pick D in a car crash this off season they've got their quarterback of the future now who's gonna miss in his entire rookie season with a major knee injury like I just I feel bad for Vikings fans um man it's like just talk about a kick in the teeth right before the start of the Season Debo are you moving down Justin Jefferson at all as a result of this or is he going to kind of stay in the same spot he was for you no I I'm I'm still perfectly fine with Jefferson really we we saw it last year guys he was the wide receiver four at even with replacement love a quarterback play I mean we've seen darnold fuel some pretty good fantasy Seasons I mean previously so I'm not saying he's amazing but I think he can be League average as far as Target quality and if that that's all that Jefferson needs he's going to need d DJ Moore had I want to say 93 catches and like 1157 yards in 2021 with darnold as his primary quarterback so I does it does it hurt Addison when he's on the field and you say darnold can maybe sustain one high-end receiver and and Debra I know you weren't even high on Addison to begin with but does it does it knock him down any further dealing with darnold I think it knocks him down a little bit what what I think like honestly like the real big fall or the I guess the Fallout here is if the Minnesota Vikings are a team that are not the we've talked about their opening schedule say they start out like 0 and four 0 and five maybe 0 and six I it's possible if you look at their schedule if that's the case I think the the the biggest Fallout for rankings is honestly are they more conservative now with TJ hackinson and out of everybody in that offense should we be bumping down his rank if we're going to move anybody out of that offense is there I'm trying to think of a name is there any like quarterback out there that's available that like the Viking Ryan tanah Hill but we're talking about I I think darnold has more you know more left on the uh more tread left than Ryan tanah Hill does so yeah yeah it's just a shame I mean ultimately at the end of the day it's always sucks it's terrible to see guys get hurt especially their whole year especially like a rookie quarterback we're really excited to see I mean just's a bummer so um wanted to bring it up since that news broke while we were taping here um let's dive back Javonte Williams into the breakout candidates here Fitz we'll go to your number two breakout candidate I'm going to throw out another Denver running back javante Williams and like I actually like both Julia mlin and javante Williams at Cost this year because now we have seen javante slip into mid-range uh running back three territory and javante is granted coming off a pretty lackluster season just 3.6 yards per carry last year didn't really show us much of the powerful running and explosiveness we saw from him back in his rookie year when he was sharing work with Melvin Gordon um but now javante is more than a full year removed from knee surgery after the ACL te hopefully we'll get more of that power and explosiveness that he was showing off in his rookie season and uh by the way those rumors several weeks ago that javante was maybe like on the the cut bubble for the Broncos I I think we can do away with those since javon's consistently been running as the Broncos starter in training camp and uh the pass catching again as Debo was just talking about very appealing um Shan Payton's offense is just they're always getting the ball to the running backs and now in comes B Nicks who was this checkdown and Screen machine in college so I mean we might even surpass the 153 running back targets the Broncos had last year and um I already shared this stat I think in a previous show but just wanted to drop it again and a hat tip to our friend JJ Zack re for digging up this little nugget since 2011 Shawn teams account for eight of the 20 highest running back Target shares in the NFL so um again this is just a pass catching Bonanza for this back field and it's probably going to get chopped up a couple of different ways but I think the two primary beneficiaries are GNA be jamonte Williams and julam mcclaflin did you mention where you have him ranked fits he's in ECR 87th overall RB 29 yeah I believe I have him ran red rb26 but just let me confirm that it looks like I've got him um RB 27 sorry right behind Tony Pard but uh I might have to flipflop those two because I think I just hook him in a draft where I had Tony Pard available as an option well they're kind of interesting parallels in that they're both another year removed from major injuries and I tend to really be drawn towards those guys they're also both in to different degrees crowded backfields um Javon Williams zebra obviously you are so high on mlin that like it's you know there's only so many names that can get fed in this in this back field but are you high on javante as well and maybe are willing to kind of get both guys on your teams yeah um I I will say this um I've been I was very low on javante entering uh this draft season but I've come around on him I bumped him up to rb32 I have mofin at rb29 only because um again we talked about the pass catching and that's really the role that I want if I'm picking one of the guys for or one of the roles out of this offense to carve out I want the pass catching option and I'm not saying that Javon cannot catch passes we saw he can catch passes his his efficiency metrics in that department were pretty good last year so I'm not just totally ruling out javante but the offseason talk from Shawn pton has been good about javante lost weight been looking good at camp and so I have bumped him up um I still at the moment will keep mlin ahead of him while acknowledging that I probably could come up a little bit more in javante and looking at I mean they're all in that same kind of like soup of like this split backfield like the Tennessee guys the Pittsburgh guys where like they all probably belong in rb3 territory it just kind of depends on which side of the aisle do you want to sit D give me your number two breakout Jaxon Smith-Njigba candidate oh man this is a guy that um and guess what the beat report are saying yet again that he's tearing it up in Camp today Jackson Smith and jiga come on down baby I think the second-year breakout is going to happen we do not have Shane Waldren neutering him into Seattle's version of Malachi Corley this year that's not going to happen he's going to be used on the outside and I think can also stretch the field although that's not really going to be his bread and butter he can do it if you look at jsn last year when he was used on the perimeter amongst 109 qualifying wide receivers J n running routes from the perimeter I.E not just soaking up screens and low a. targets because Shane walon didn't know what to do with him he was third in targets per route run and he was 14th in yards per route run immediately behind Michael Pitman so the talent is firmly there I think we just didn't get to see it Unleashed last year because of the the the wrist injury and the slow start in that aspect and then the pitiful usage profile that Shane Waldren tasked him with which should have never been in his wheelhouse like that I'm sorry but that's not how you U utilize a player like jsn on the NFL field and I think look again some of this is projection that I think the new OC is better than the old OC or maybe just has his head screwed on right but I think jsn we going to see what we should have saw last year in 2024 yeah I you know jsn is somebody that like I don't find myself drafting that early like to get ahead of of you know where he's going in drafts and and to make sure he's on my team but I'm really happy when I get him at cost and I think the upside is is really apparent with him Fitz where are you at on jsn this year yeah I mean I I like him and I probably should be higher than I am like I I do have him ranked somewhere in like wide receiver four range but um this is a guy who as a true sophomore at Ohio State in 2021 sharing a field with Garrett Wilson and chis olve Jackson Smith and jiga had 95 catches for, 1600 yards sharing it with two of the better wide receivers in the NFL so um he's good and uh you know it's possible that like Shane Waldren was largely to blame for jsn not firing as a rookie last year and that we're gonna get a big bounce from him in year two like I don't know if that's all that was going on but like we do know his average depth of Target was ridiculously low was like I I forget what was it dbr was like under five yards or under six yards it was pretty low so um yeah let's hope for a little a little more optimal usage this year and uh yeah I think he's a great breakout candidate and I should probably get him in a few more drafts before the season starts where do you guys have him ranked right now I think I've got him in like that 40 41 range which might be a little too low I got him at 39 actually so I do have him inside the top 35 yeah yeah I got him at 35 I do like a lot of the receivers like kind of in that mid-30s range so it's harder to move them up just because I like the other guys but I do think that we will look back at the end of the season and say if he's ranked 40 or lower it was too low point he's 95th in a DOT last year at 6.1 that's ridiculous at V sorry 43 behind Addison and makoni and I think I'm going to move him ahead of those two guys yeah I agree with that I I think that makes makes a lot of sense yeah I I think jully like he is a he is somebody who it's maybe not being discussed enough that he like how much of a League winner he could end up being if they actually use him in the right way I mean I I've said this all offseason I absolutely adored him as a prospect coming into the NFL and one bad year of where he didn't get the usage we think he should have gotten there was some injury stuff also during that season like I'm very happy to buy into a bounceback for a guy all the buzz and all the camp reports have been saying he's ripping it up so again we want to talk about about like preseason drum beats we need to listen to this I believe truly is one of them was it was it jsn or Marvin Harrison that like Garrett Wilson and Chris alve were saying like this guy's better than us like because there were those quotes it was JSM right yep JSM yeah yeah I mean that speaks volumes and to Fitz's point he he dominated when he was sharing the field with those guys um all right let's go to our number one breakout candidates Chase Brown each Fitz we'll start with you all right we have now been doing offseason shows for about 6 months and talking about guys we're high on for 2024 so uh you know why why we like to get some new names into the rotation sometimes you just have to play the hits so um you know I guess my my Jumping Jack Flash for this would be Chase Brown who I'm gonna mention one more time um you know Chase Brown and and Zach Moss are probably going to share the Cincinnati backfield in some sort of uh you know we don't know quite what the uh allotment of work is going to be for those two yet um you know and I tried not to get too excited what when there were reports that chase Brown was consistently running with the ones in training camp um like I do think it's probably going to be somewhere close to 5050 to start the season but um you know early last year Zach Moss went absolutely Bonkers for the Colts and so I think a lot of people just assumed he was going to be the uh lead back for the Bengals this year um you know Moss had those three really good games while Jonathan Taylor was on IR then Taylor comes off against the Titans but the Colts used him very lightly that week and like moss had his biggest game of the season three touchdowns against a pretty good Tennessee Rundy but from week six on Moss averaged 3.6 yards per carry and I I think we could kind of conclude that he was an underachiever for the two and a half years he was in Buffalo like he got beaten out by Devin single ter every single year when they were playing together in Buffalo um so Moss isn't really explosive or fast he isn't a prolific pass Catcher And he gets hurt a lot like he's had some recurring injury issues throughout his NFL career Chase Brown is fast and explosive 44 speed um showed us in a limited sample size last year that he can be really good as a pass catcher uh there's there's not much to go on with Chase Brown honestly in the NFL because he had 58 touches last year as a rookie but um Chase Brown averaged 27.3 carries and 29.6 touches a game in his final season at Illinois like they worked that dude into the ground he had 1883 yards from scrimmage in 13 TDS in 12 games completely wrecked my Wisconsin Badgers that year 129 rushing yards in a touchdown uh like there's Workhorse potential here if the Bengals decide they want to give someone the Joe Mixon roll and Chase Brown has shown that he can be a Workhorse and by the way with Joe burrow at quarterback and Jamar Chase and T Higgins at wide receiver whoever's going to be in the back field for the Bengals is probably not going to see a lot of stacked boxes this year it's probably going to be a lot of light boxes and uh those running backs are going to be set up for Success right now I'd much rather bet on Chase Brown than Zach Moss Debo are you kind of team Moss or team Brown I'm team Chase Brown because I do not want anything to do with Zach Moss I think he's this year's Alexander Madison I think he's one of the worst picks you can make in all fantasy where do you where do you have brown ranked I was actually updating that as as I'm listening to uh Fitzy's expose on Chase Brown I was actually moving him up I've got uh Brown at RB 37 right now and I'm moving Zach Moss down a little bit um I will have and this is real the real takeaway here I will have Chase Brown ranked above Zach Moss I think that he's he's the better player out of the two of them Moss has not been a guy that I've been looking at at all uh this offseason this draft season best ball teams anything really and now that we're getting all the camp reports like Chase Brown is splitting he's he's playing time with the first team I mean come on man like out of this backfield really my takeaway for Cincinnati this entire off season has been just to invest in the passing game more but if I go to the backfield it's Jay Brown I'll draft him and I'm just avoiding full avoid for Zack Moss I entered this off season uh more on the side of Zach moss and Chase Brown I have done too many dang shows with Fitz and I have now come around and have Chase Brown ahead of moss he has won me over through months and months of hard work just chipping away at my rankings so uh yeah we're in agreement here on Chase Brown over over Zach Moss Christian Watson at this point Debo number one breakout candidate who you got I know that people could say this is loh hanging fruit and we've talked about him for multiple seasons I don't care it's Christian Watson we get a full season of him just bullying Corners running past guys I I think he's going to break out I think he's going to be one of the wide receivers that you can draft in the middle rounds that can tilt leagues that can be one of the guys that is a true Difference Maker for your fantasy teams and we've seen this in a bunch of small little spurts and iterations of seasons and I think that we get the full season of Christian Watson just doing it this year I mean what we saw last year Jordan love was was arguably terrible for the first like half of the Season actually for more than the first half of the season but whenever he switched it on weeks 11 weeks 12 the sad thing is Christian Watson didn't get much time with that version of Jordan love just crushing we got two games people and I I get it's a small sample size but in those two games Maybe Christian Watson before leading lost to injury was his healthi it's Jord Love was playing his best football of the season in those two games we got Christian Watson commanding a 23.5% Target share blowing up for 3.0 yards per route run averaging 24 fantasy points per game and I I I get it it was only two games what if he puts up e 75% of that 80% of that this season we're talking talking about a player you're getting as your wide receiver four heck your wide receiver five on some teams that could be a legitimate wide receiver to this year maybe higher if he truly truly takes over that that that that number one role and I get it laf Flores coming out there and he's like I don't want to answer this question we have tons of of really good players yeah they do and that didn't stop Christian Watson from leading them in every statistical category we should care about when he was on the field in a fulltime roll last year that happens again in 2024 and the breakouts coming yeah like I I don't to me like the health is so much more of a a factor and a consideration for me than the crowded wide receiver room like if if you told me that hey this hamstring stuff has actually been solved and he is now going to be healthy for 17 games this season which you know you can't guarantee for anybody but if you told me that like I think he'd be ranked closer to like a wide receiver one than a wide receiver for like like I just think like we we what we've seen from him when he's on the field he's attached to what looks like an elite quarterback in the second half last season a good play designer like we know the talent and the pedigree coming out like he's 89th overall in ECR wide receiver 40 I think that's already starting to move up though um but like look at some of the other names around him like in ECR it's Deontay Johnson Calvin Ridley Jaden Reed DeAndre Hopkins Hollywood Brown jsn who we also like but to me Christian Watson stands out as the most potential League winner of those guys not that he is guaranteed to be the best value because there's other names there that I like it cost but the guy who we could look at in December and say the reason I made the playoffs the reason I won my league was because I took a flyer on Christian Watson as my wide receiver for and it turned out he was my wide receiver one or two Fitz where do you have Watson ranked wide receiver 36 and um 32 yeah and so with with regard to the injury thing like for anyone who missed it during the offseason he did see a specialist about his hamstring issues and they found that there was a strength imbalance in his legs so hopefully with an adjustment in his training he can maybe overcome some of these chronic injury issues and um you know like I I know people are worried about how many capable young receivers the Packers have like they have a bunch of them and two good young tight ends too um but like when Watson has shared the field with Jaden Reed and Romeo dubs he has had the highest Target share of any of those wide receivers at something like close to 27% with those two guys and they're high value targets like his average depth of Target the last couple years has been like 15 yards 14 yards um and what should really entice fantasy managers who are considering drafting Christian Watson is that we want to chase touchdowns and this dude has shown that he can be a prolific touchdown scorer eight touchdowns in a Four game span as a rookie I mean it was just a touchdown Bonanza for that four-week run uh a couple of years ago and then last year he scored four touchdowns in a three-game stretch so this dude can get in the end zone and if he does stay healthy all year um yeah I mean like granted he's probably not going to get a 1500 yard season with as many good receivers as there are in greed Bay but uh he could certainly get a 10 or 12 touchdown season without you know I don't think that's too much of a stretch Debo how would you rank at Cost your interest in these Packers wide receivers Jaden Reed Romeo dobs Christian Watson davien Wix again considering cost who are you getting kind of the most of and the most interested in um for me it it comes down to I'm drafting a ton of watts and he's going to be one of my highest drafted wide receivers uh as far as like bet best ball portfolios and just my my manage League teams um so he's definitely the clear guy um at cost and the number one guy that I want but after him I think it's really comes down to like I'm drafting a lot of Wicks because his ADP still has not creeped up um so I'm taking the shot there for variance and I don't have a lot of love for Jaden Reed and Romeo dos like if I were to honestly say at Cost Jaden Reed would be the fourth guy on this in this pecking order and dobs will be above him because again if the endzone targets of the last two years are not going to Christian Watson they've been going to Romeo dobs and the the buzz is just as high on Romeo dobs right now in training camp about the the coaching staff talking about him as improving as a route Runner now the thing about jayen Reed is all of the touchdown luck happened last year so why are we chasing that like do we really think he's going to score 10 PL 10 touchdowns this season when he doesn't even play a full-time role if everybody's healthy that's tough man like could he be an outlier could he do it sure also like you're projecting a lot of outlier things for him to hit if he does not seize a full-time role if the touchdowns do come back to earth I mean we're talking about a guy that was outside the top 40 wide receivers and expected fantasy points per game so if those touchdowns don't happen he's going to disappoint people and if the playing time doesn't happen he's going to disappoint people and I know that Jane Reed stands are going to come for me with this I don't care like that those are facts and you need to hear them fit same question yeah I mean Reed is probably the least appealing at cost for a lot of the things uh a lot of the reasons Debro mention like Reed Only Hits a 70% snapshare in maybe two games last year playoffs included but uh they they do Endeavor to get the ball into his hands when he is on the field so like I I don't totally hate the price on him but man I mean both dos and and Wicks are interesting later round Flyers at their respective costs and I'm in on Watson like I wanna you know I want to invest in all these guys and um you know I know we're sort of portfolio drafters who play in a zillion leagues and we're maybe able to get a pieces of these guys but um you know if if you're watching or listening to the show and you only play in one or two leagues um you know maybe it's not a bad strategy to go for whoever the draft value is among the Packers but I I do think it's worth investing in this past offense cuz uh it was really clicking last year and I know that you know there were there were some defenses they played that weren't at full strength and were missing players or whatever but Jordan love definitely turned a corner late last year and looked like one of the better passers in the league I don't think that was a fluke and he's been crushing it in Camp so again I'm with you Fitzy I don't I don't think the love back half of the season when he was playing elite football regardless of whatever metric you look at Elite football I don't think you put that Genie back in the bottle like I think I think that that's the version that we get of Jordan love this year like he's got top five fantasy QB upside again this year I totally agree and like he's the type of person where hey if you don't want to try and guess on the Packers wide receiver maybe just take the quarterback and know that you're going to get those points one way or another uh we'll get out of there on that um and I hope everybody is you know subscribed and listening to us for the rest of kind of the back half of August this is the fun time we've got shows coming pretty much daily at this point so be sure to stick with us here um as get into the season just really like a few weeks away which is super super exciting uh for D bro Ed Fitz I'm Ryan Worley thank you everybody for tuning in and we'll see you again next time