Trump v. Harris. Investors Focus on Economy, Inflation and the Market. Doug Flynn, CFP on NewsNation

- So, you know, we talk about it all the time, how the economy is the number one issue in the polls for voters. You would think we'll hear a decent amount about it tonight. Doug Flynn joins us as he does this at this time, many days from Flynn Zito Capital Management. I don't, I don't think we'll get into the stock market. Oh, you never know. Trump likes to talk about the stock market, but the economy, we have a screen that kind of, that we've showed a number of times in the show that kinda goes through, you know, here's the Harris plan, here's the Trump plan. We can put it up now. But the point is they're, they're very different. It, it, there's, you know, what Harris wants to do in terms of expanding some of these tax credits. The price gouging thing you and I have talked about. How do you define that? The subsidy for housing gets a lot of attention. Trump's big thing really is the tax cuts making them permanent. You know? Right. You get a lot of people, and I don't know that it was kind of your profile, Doug people work, you know, that I know that work on Wall Street and other places. I don't, I'm not assigning any thoughts to you. I'm just saying Sure. You know, people that, they don't love Trump. They've known him for years in New York or known of them, but they love the tax cuts and that's their rationale. So that, that's What would you say about that in terms of his economic plan? Let's start with him. - Yeah. I mean they're obviously, if you continue on with what we've had this whole time, we've had those even through the current administration. - Yep. - It, it's, it's a knowable, you know exactly what you're gonna get. You already know how to plan around that. And, and the big takeaway for this is the certainty of that We know exactly what to expect and how to react accordingly. It's always the uncertainty that makes people nervous. 'cause you just don't know exactly how it's going to shake out in those changes. They're gonna make one change versus another. And so in this case, it's kind of more of the same. And the real issue is they're gonna talk about how much that's going to balloon the deficit, but that really hasn't, you know, the, the, the revenue it, it was more than than expected. So it's, it's really never the revenue problem side of things. It's always on the spending side of things and they both wanna spend trillions of dollars. - Right. Yeah. That was never, Trump's economic strength was cutting down the spending. Again, it was the tax cuts that people liked. But he did spend never, never was really cutting back on spending at all when he was, when he was president. Now for Harris, what Trump most likely will try to do is painter as much as he can as being associated with Biden. Right. And when you talk about the economy, put up the inflation chart guys if you have it for a second, because you're gonna go back to the inflation reduction act and say, you know, this was, heard the siding vote on some of this key legislation and CP inflation at 9% and that chart. And now obviously it's come down under three. What about the signing blame? We were coming outta Covid. Right. And then, you know, there's, there's a back and forth on this, this last piece of legislation some say was too much. How much inflation blame deserves to be, you know, pin pinned on the Biden Harris administration. - I think a, a fair amount only because of the amount of stimulus that they threw out there. And as anybody in, in economics knows is that if you flood a bunch of money and it's gonna drive up inflation. So when Biden took OO over and into office it, the inflation rate, the CPI was about 1.4% I think is the number. - Right. - And although it hit a high of 9.9 0.1, it's now under three and we're gonna get some numbers tomorrow. They're probably even going to be better than the numbers we had last time. But the fact of the matter is they're, they're higher than they were when, when Trump left office. Sure. And what I think he's gonna point to is though, even though the average amount of inflation cumulatively over Biden was 20%, there are things like car insurance, which are up well over 50%. So, so there's a lot of items that don't fit into the CPI basket that people are feeling. Sure. Oh absolutely. Even though the nu - You feel it more, by the way, even the numbers are decent than say the stock market and other things sometimes. 'cause the Biden, you know, would have a pretty good argument show the stock market. I think we have a five year chart to say, you know, for all you guys don't like what I've done with the economy, market's done really well. Right. People making a lot of money in their 4 0 1 Ks and maybe some of that spending's helped with growth. That would be their rebuttal to what you just said, right? I presume. - I think so. And, and the numbers are with, with the market, while Biden maintained a double digit, which is the historical average turn of the market, Trump's numbers are a little bit better. They're about three to 4% better per year average. Compounded people feel better now because the total value is higher. It's compounded on top of it. I think the real numbers they're not gonna get into is how much better the bond market is done under, under Trump versus Biden. The, the bond market returns are negative because essentially they had to keep raising up interest rates and that drove down the bond - Prices. I think you're right. I don't think they will get into that at all A couple times. Yeah. Trump. So I love debt or something like that, so you never know. Alright, Doug, thank you my friend.