Biggest Takeaways from Jets vs 49ers and NFL Week 1 with Drew Dinsick | A Numbers Game - 09-10-24

this is B the sports betting Network the numbers told the story they always do it's one of those idiots who believe in analytics this is a numbers game with Gil Alexander gone V good Tuesday morning to is a numbers game at B where sports betting lives live from Circa vb.com game plus iart radio YouTube TV skill Alexander Kelly bidin producer number nine alongside as well so much more producer what's happing not much I don't think we're going to I don't think we're going to stay perfect in circum Millions no perfect season is over for you per perfect season's over yeah I fell to a mediocre three and two with the Jets lost yesterday we'll get into that momentarily uh on the show today Drew Deni will join us feel like it's been a month since we had Drew on I guess he just had his week before season let me appease the wife week so he wasn't on with us that's what he said I'm just myself that's what he said right from his mouth a smart move hope his wife's not listening uh later on the show also uh we will get into some Survivor talk have you taken a look at the old week 2 survivor slate oh yes I have yes I have boy this is this is a interesting week of Survivor yeah there there are no right answers to this quiz I I do not know what I'm doing but it may be some kamakazi stuff here coming up really oh yeah I feel like I'm actually narrowed down between like two sides already yeah is one of those sides Indianapolis and your boy okay cuz we before we do anything it's interesting because the the Colts are taking money I know we're supposed to talk about the jesss of the ners real quick but the Colts are taking money right and the Colts are more than a three-point favorite now against the Packers on the road H it's it's it's three it's been bouncing between three and three and a half it's all like Juiced three I guessed three yesterday but and I get it right it's so it should be three it's Malik Willis obviously that's built into the line but this notion that it would go over the three right starts to get into this territory of okay the the difference between Jordan love and Malik Willis is great because the look ahead was five was five was five so it is eight point difference you're talking so again for the for the new betters right or the newish betters out there a a line a pre- flop line in a uh pro football game the only players generally that matter to the point spread are quarterbacks uh there are rare exceptions when some when another skill position player maybe a defensive player will matter a half point or a point you know that kind of thing but from starting quarterback to backup quarterback these things can move massively and obviously it's also not static Tom Brady when he was the when it was the quarterback of the Patriots if they had a home game against the worst team in the NFL it was a different line movement if he was out let's say if he was a road game against Aaron Rogers and the Packers right so nothing is exactly static but just to give you an idea about that what's already an eight-point spread to the three right from Green Bay being a five-point favor to a three-point dog which is where I guessed it yesterday and by the way administrative parenthetical aside to an aside administrative no cuz a lot of people were asking Mondays during football season podcast form of the show is on the beating the book podcast feed not on the numbers game feed the rest of the week during football season Tuesday through Friday this show podcast feed a numbers game Mondays it's on the beating the book uh feed just to let you know because a lots lots of folks were tweeting in about that but that eight-point shift is akin to to something like back in the day I'll give you an example when Andrew Luck was the quarterback of the Colts and he would be out and it would go to Scott tozen that was the biggest shift in those days in the NFL and that was eight points and so I understand Malik Willis people have a question as to whether or not he can even complete a forward pass in this league yes but if but if you're getting past eight points we're getting a little mugan it's we are right on the border of being of being a little wild this i' would like you to say the word muga muga this is not a this is I mean this is not a wildly big bet for me but that is like it is I think we often throw out the phrase of what is a quarterback Worth to the spread yes but that's all dependent on what the backup situation is well in this case I would argue and I'm I'm as big of a Jordan love fan remember I'm the guy who thought he'd be good right before last year it's also kind of it it's on both sides a little bit right it's not just the Malik Willis side of it it's like okay are we we have all we are all convinced 100% that Jordan love is Elite at this point also right that might be and I'm I'm a huge fan that might be fla yes that might be true it also might be flaw so I'm just saying if you go past the eight and and all of a sudden the Colts are like giving three and a half or four on the road I'm just saying we're getting a little shaky there so so if people are gravitating towards that as a Survivor pick I'm just oh I know we're not having the Survivor discussion yet I just wanted to get there with that um yeah I mean I expect I expect that there would be some sharp betters out there on Bay catching a three and a half we can come here on Monday and by the way it'll be like well Malik Willis couldn't complete a for-ward pass and it should have been more than eight you know yeah cuz you are I mean like you're talking that that big of a a difference in quarterbacks is about as Extreme as you're going to see luck to tol Zen was bigger than Brady to whomever the Brady backup was at any given time y so anyway just as a historical comparison with how how lines move anyway um as far as the as sorry about that five minute sorry about that it's just sort of a stream of consciousness on the show so uh the game last night uh I will speak for myself uh but I know I'm speaking for others I could not have been more wrong about the uh New York jetr palitan showing up for this one shout out to Michael Lombardi on the morning line because Michael Lombardi yesterday said he he was I don't know if he was uh being delicate with his words or he was choosing his words carefully but he definitely gave the vibe that Christian mcaffrey would not be a go and as it turns out we find out right before the game that Christian mcaffry was out now it didn't matter ultimately in the end but it might have explained why the spread never bounced up on the ners right if anything it it teetered on the three and a half uh rather than going up from the four because I got that part wrong too mcaffrey wasn't a go Jordan Mason who ended up having the game of his life and when I say the game of his life I'm talking about dating back to his high school days before Georgia Tech uh 28 carries for 147 yards and a touchdown as the as the ners did anything they wanted to in a 32 to19 win that Kelly the final score does not reflect how big of a blowout this was at all not at all cosmetic touchdown for the Jets at the end when they pulled Aaron Rodgers and put Tyrod Taylor in the game or that's trod Taylor if I'm going to say his name correctly Aaron Rogers 13 for 21 for 167 but the the point of I mean first of all one Kyle Shanahan anybody apparently can be in that back field uh in his running scheme uh no no knock on Jordan Mason obviously they're phenomenal beyond belief with Christian mcaffry but it's certain certainly didn't harmed them yesterday uh Trent Williams I mean the handicap going with the Jets part of it was all right auk just got to Camp um by the way paon Manning murdering him for dropping that pass in the end zone which I thought was a little over the top like he was fully stretched out catch that oh yeah it was just like relax um he had a couple drops though that I thought were a little uncharacteristic well that was the one that he really got into but but Trent Williams playing the first 65 snaps and forget all you know forget Pro Bowl form his Hall of Fame form form in this game uh P just had an easy time of it every time besides the first right the beginning of the game it was uh three to nothing ners and then it was 7 to3 and then 7 to six but besides that first sequence where the Jets had some hope and remember that Jets drive to get a touch down early was three third down and long conversions by Third and long I mean third and eight third and seven third and six all to Garrett Wilson once the ners figured that out the rest of the game on offense first of all the ners could do anything they wanted to on the ground they outgained the Packers on the ground 180 to 68 and through the air how many times was Jaan Jennings just wide open or KD wide open um or Debo doing whatever he wanted to and I would say even so and Robert Salah had that that look every time they flashed the camera to him you looked at Salah and you're like this guy has no answers none whatsoever like none and then on the other side of the ball uh you know this will be this will be thrown around uh you know Main stre media more than anything Nathaniel hack it with just zero creativity zero you know we're going to do this we're going to try to yeah the run's not really working let's see if we can think of anything no nothing yeah it was a brutal but so were you were you more impressed with San Francisco or more disappointed in New York well so this was this was going to be my question that what is your take is your takeaway because you know immediately parls the Grover Cleveland producers Jeffrey parlay our buddy he's a Jets fan and so I immediately texted him I was like all right and I think he had the proper response which is what I was trying to get at from it which is you know it's one game the ners are still great like when we did our power rankings I know San Francisco was my number one NFC I can't remember I had him number one overall I'm as big of a Niners guy as anybody but in this particular situation based on their based on their offseason I was like okay well maybe the Jets getting the points here is the move uh that didn't work at all but is this just one game where it's like okay well the Jets no one would have been surprised if they lost by four right so okay you lose one you lose to a great team is this a bigger cause for concern or you in the ners case it's just ho hum Move Along they're what you thought they were even more perhaps so I don't know or or or is the Jets time to panic already I guess is the question no I I think it's a little on both sides so like the way I'll describe it with with okay if you're a Jets Jets fan Jets backer I I look it's disappointing it's not a great start it's not what you were hoping to see with Aaron Rogers back right but there is plenty of time left in the season it is one game I think that's the way you need to look at it plenty of time to freak out in the coming weeks if it continues to look this bad right I think for me as someone we went over those NFC Power Rankings last week and it was kind of lions Eagles 49ers all in the wash I don't really know if I have one that's clearcut above the rest right now I think last night it was ners saying hey we're we're still the team to go through I I don't know how anyone ever took the the send off the Niners being number one and from my perspective but I certainly had the Jets yesterday that proved to be ridiculously dumb I mean the only concern right the only concern you obviously come away from if you're 49ers fan or backer is just okay well let's the deal with mcaffry going forward right I mean how long is this going to linger how big of an issue could this be I also want to say this too so we we saw in week one you had Aaron Rogers you had Kirk Cousins neither were spectacular by the way Aaron Rogers should stopped smiling through a game by the way that they're getting crushed in I just want to point that out as well agree maybe maybe relax with you're so cool you're above all this um but the whole thing with the Achilles Like I know some people are going to be like I don't know neither looked really great with they coming off the Achilles I think both and we we documented it yesterday on guessing lines how unimaginative Zack Robinson's game plan was with the Falcons literally every formation they were in you knew exactly if they were going to run or pass and then with the giant with the uh pardon me with the Jets and hacket yesterday was as unimaginative as possible so I don't think you can anyone jumping to the Achilles conclusion should not like they were both cousins and Rogers in circumstances where their offensive coordinators just didn't do anything for them agreed yeah um anyway you end up with your Millions I had three and two but you had a 5-0 and a 40 and one a four no 40 and one and a 4- one 40 and one and a four and one four and0 with the Jeff Ryan last you're 40 and one and you're 4- one both looking good after one week God I was hoping for a 5 and0 man maybe should maybe you should be thinking about the quarterly already Kelly it's within reach Drew Deni on the other side his thoughts on football next time there's nothing more valuable it's what drives everyone to make the most of every moment we celebrate living large in the now in a city where time disappears we create experiences that Electrify the soul and memories that will last forever we go big we go all night and here everyone is invited so get loose and get loud this is Circa you'll have the time of your life coming up Tuesday on Fall the money we recap Monday Night Football we talk to the owner of Circa Derek Stevens Paul stone with pix and Matt humans on the NFL and college fall the money weekdays 4 to 7 Eastern on Von the sports betting Network want to see who at vison is on a hot streak go to von.com slpi to see all the selections and weekly 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where you can unlock unlimited access to every tool expert picks and insight that make Vin the sports betting Network [Music] [Music] the [Music] [Music] a numbers game on vent the sports betting network with the NFL underway there's never been a better time to become a vent Pro subscriber make this football season your best ever with full visent pro access to our daily Best Bets with a leaderboard pardon me to see which visent expert has the hot hand betting splits betting systems 247 video access grab our football season special get full Visa Pro access from now through the Super Bowl for just7 $5 to start a monthly subscription for just $9.99 and see why vent Pro is your ticket to a winning season do not wait head to vent.com subscribe to sign up and start betting smart today that's vs.com subscribe I made that for the New England audience just Cas just in case they needed a translation by the way Kelly bidin uh struggling today with the buttons on his shirt it should be pointed out so he's doing this I'm I'm dropping kill I'm going I'm going I'm going yeah a lot more comt going a little butterfly and uh Kelly bidin showing a little chest hair everybody this is I love this shirt but it's the worst second button shirt man a ladies Our Ladies demo just shot up in the air nice job please but that uh this guy has himself a suntan he did the whole week before NFL season with the wife up in Wine Country uh but he got back of course for the NFL season he joins us now courtesy of the progressive guest line you can follow him on Twitter at whale Capper he's the host of not one but two podcast the Deep dive with Andy molor and of course n BC sports bet the edge with J Croucher it's Drew Deni everybody how you doing Drew I'm doing well it's great to be with you guys I hope everybody had a very successful week one and uh yeah feel like I'm I feel like I'm somewhere new this is this isn't the D where oh and you know what actually good thing you're not at the D the ladies would be cat calling Kelly at 7 in the morning with the uh with the you know with the Bud Lights yeah you have no idea Drew none um the D noted noted bidin magnet Place yeah we'd have to wake them up first but yeah so I guess first of all the question is and I'll ask just the generic one first from a from a betting standpoint from just a football viewing standpoint like what's your biggest I won't say your biggest takeaway from week one what's the thing you saw jux toos against your preseason handicap where the light bulb sort of went off and you're like okay I at least have to pay attention to that I might have been wrong about this um okay well uh my two higher conviction things I felt like I got positive reinforcement with what we saw which where the Houston offense is going to be a problem for everyone and the Seattle defense has signs of a quick turnaround um and then basically everything else I think played pretty much to chalk there were five question marks at the quarterback position that we got very uncertain to negative answers about um that are kind of concerning from like a quality of the product standpoint so um I think I like to hear this yeah let's list yeah well I I mean uh like start with burrow like we hadn't seen burrow since the wrist injury he pretty clearly looks still hurt to me um that matters a ton for the purpose of like can his wrist heal if he is throwing the ball 30 times a week and also like the bigger surprise for burrow for me was the way that the end of the game was called by Zack Taylor felt like he didn't really understand that burrow was limited so so I I point well oh you said that he didn't understand I pointed out it felt like it yeah he was he was drawing up brilliant stuff to get guys wide open like in the intermediate deep part of the field and burrow just didn't pull the trigger and that was spooky I I pointed out that that that punt that they decided to go with you know fourth and five in their own territory was questionable to begin with right I was like oh they sort of capitulating on this but you're saying something different you're saying about the game plan itself yeah it didn't necessarily feel like they like I've seen Game plans set up where you're expecting your quarterback to have an ad you know an ADT of like three yards which BR was kind of in that ballpark for a lot of the game and that didn't feel like one of those game plans really like the most of the stuff was sort of release valve as opposed to like Hey we're setting up some quick short stuff for you here buddy um he was under he was not under pressure uh the Patriots played defense fine but it wasn't like that was like a masterful defensive performance from the past as on the rewatch in particular um yeah so burrow not being healthy and know carrying this rist injury is a huge huge concern a great Point let me let me throw in because you might be too cool for school for some folks ADT average depth of Target is what J was talking about go ahead I'm sorry yeah yes yes and his ADOT uh the um but uh the uh yeah the air yards were concerned for burrow the uh and this week like this that would be the best best game on Sunday would be Chiefs Bengals and now I'm like H that's a yeah bingles bingles are kind of on outs there so yeah that that uh that was kind of that was one of the five uh the other kind of obvious one was Kirk Cousins and everybody's going to note this because the tape on cousins was like cons like like it didn't feel like you're watching an NFL football player out there he was that statuesque uh and I guess if his you know if his plant leg is a problem and if his Mobility is that in question um anytime they go up against meaningful pass rushes uh the Falcons are in absolutely you know brutal spots and again like games that I was excited to see let's see Falcons play the Eagles see the Falcons play the Chiefs like well now those games are kind of yeah so yeah it's it uh that was a bit of a bummer and honestly like you look at the you know what was the most talked about thing about the Falcons in the preseason was like oh their schedule so easy so easy well actually now that you look at it and if the Saints and the Bucks have like pulses um then this could turn into like a very bad season for Atlanta which really complicates what in the world do you do next year right so Atlanta is absolutely sort of like the drama team to watch without question also don't don't when you're in the shotgun don't throw 100% of the time and when you're in the pistol don't run 96% of the time or whatever those percentages were that doesn't help either yeah but but it's kind it kind of felt like they were hamstr strong uh like they just didn't really have like a choice in terms of doing anything to create misdirection or infuscation at all like they were just it was just sitting duck statue stuff and um that's the problem for today's NFL with as good as the defensive linemen are out there as athletic as they are particularly when you go up against one that has you know Elite athletes like the Steelers so um that was pretty concerning um I was on the right side of this one so I quietly enjoyed it but uh deshun Watson might be just like done dbe I mean it's it's it's it's sketchy to draw that type of conclusion one game but we saw him drop back and pass a lot he had Happy Feet miserable mechanics like looked like he had not like he was still kind of learning to play the position of quarterback which is absurd uh and it was again against one of the more violent defenses in the NFL that had a pressure rate that was just absolutely ridiculous um but it's not like the reinforcements are coming this week for the browns offensive line like it's going to take a while for that unit to come together in gel and like I would actually like I'm I'm starting to wonder like how many how many starts are we actually going to see from Watson here before they're like you know we still have a team that's built to win we went to the playoffs with Joe flacko last year like we can't sacrifice our season just because we're paying Watson and that that is a fascinating question to see how that organization handles the uh you know the quarterback position because I don't think that the the the glimmer of hope that you had that Watson was just going to turn it around uh seems to be fading to the point of like almost laughable that he's going to be a any anything better than you know top 20 you than like 20th best quarterback in the NFL and even being the 30th best quarterback would be an improvement based on what we saw so uh yeah it's the Watson was wild not to keep interrupting your flow but I mean you're right one one game you don't know because how much of that was Dallas just having ridiculous Talent on defense right and having to deal with Micah to begin with but you're you know the mechanics thing is a great point and I immediately as you said that I think about RG3 the the under rated part about RG3's careers again ridiculous rookie year won the Rookie of the Year over Andrew Luck uh the The Hope was eternal but then of course in that playoff game he blows out his knee and when he came back from the injury his mechanics had gone to crapola so it wasn't just the injuries right there was something about having not played for a while or or just rehabbing whatever it was that he just kind of forgot to play quarterback and so what you're saying with Watson is sort of similar to that that's the guy that reminds me of in that respect yeah uh and uh there are not that many examples you can point point to of a guy who just like forgets out of football um but it did not feel like Watson was even the same human being that we saw in Houston um for so far almost every Star I've seen it make in a Browns uniform so uh it is uh it is very bizarre and they're yeah they're decision-making about what do we do with the quarterback position considering how talented the defense is uh is really fascinating to me um and the other two quarterbacks who you know were just wildly you know like there was some question how are they going to look coming off of an ACL how is he gonna look under a new system well Daniel Jones and Bryce young are not it and I think um I'm gonna make a case for one of those quarterbacks this week actually I'm going to make a case for both of them uh but uh yeah they were both pretty uh pretty atrocious and uh uh you know so I guess my major takeaway was the upside from the quarterback position the promise of hope the preseason we haven't played a game yet who knows yeah all of a lot of that went flying out the window with what we saw and the ones that like concern me the most surely are the health stuff and I guess to go back to you your preseason expectations I thought Pittsburgh was absolutely Sitting Ducks I thought they were trash I looked at the second half the schedule I'm like this is absolute uh you know they're they go to schedule hell around Thanksgiving well now I look at it and I'm like h huh you might have a three-game stretch of Dorian Thompson Robinson you know Jake Browning Dorian Thompson Robinson that doesn't sound as scary as uh you know what what I was thinking and you know so there there is oh no not again like absolutely like like things like and by the way the Steelers offense was as bad as I expected but it didn't matter and of course and of course you didn't even mention any of the rookie quarterbacks who obviously didn't prove anything week one uh Drew Di's week two thoughts on the other side it's a numbers game at be in these Sports Network v is extending our vison pro football special that means for $175 you'll get access to both our NFL and college football betting guides plus so much more with vison Pro you'll receive daily picks straight to your inbox detailed analysis on every game and exclusive data like our betting splits to help you become a sharper better get all this for just $175 through the Super Bowl or try a monthly subscription and get your first 30 days for only $19 don't miss out on this unbeatable offer sign up now at von.com / subscribe don't wait until fall to start betting the NFL get a jump start now with the Von NFL betting guide and get prepared for this NFL season like never before the guide has in-depth breakdowns for all 32 teams Best Bets from our Vin experts playoff predictions award Market previews and more the guide is out now and the only way to get it is to be a VIN Pro subscriber head to v.com slpro to sign up and join the sports betting Network [Music] [Music] w [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] a numbers game on Fe the sports betting Network Live from Circa it is a numbers game right here Fe and the sports betting Network kill Alexander Kelly bin ah yes a beautiful Studio let it wash over us it's like a very uh a light filtery light that shot looks crisp on you man that that little tight shot yeah I like it you get the book in the corner you know that's what we're here for the crisp shot on your chest air by the way maybe you should do that uh we were by the way Drew dii kind enough always to hang with us for a couple segments Drew D from both the Deep dive and the BET The Edge podcast with Andy molor and Jay Croucher respectively uh wherever podcasts are distributed and we were just solving the NFL's problems uh off air courtesy of the progressive guest line we were doing it and uh you know we were talking yesterday and I mentioned this on guessing lines yesterday the quarterback play overall we just alluded to it atrocious uh you pointed out Drew off air the only two guys got to 300 yards for God's sakes Tua and Matthew Stafford on the Sunday night game but I was mentioning you know just okay if you want to fix this this kickoff thing just make the Touchback the 35 yard line then no one will kick it through the end zone anymore but then the the second thought is as I mentioned yesterday and we talked about just now off air nobody misses field goals anymore there was a time again 1982 Mark Mosley won the NFL MVP for kicking 27 field goals in a row and everybody thought it was just the most amazing thing in the world he topped out in the low 50s in terms of his long field goals I remember the skins used to bring in when they had like when chip low Miller was their kicker and he was one of the best kickers in the league when they would try a 56 y they would bring in this dude Steve Cox I was reminded of this on Twitter yesterday and it was like the coolest thing ever I was like Cox is coming in a kick a 56 yard this is amazing and now they all hit it's like a chip shot so if you put if you put the Touchback at the 35 on the one hand and then you have these kickers who don't miss you could just gain 20 yards and kick and have three points every Drive what do we do so we can't do that hey man we're making the game more Dynamic making it Dynamic Gil uh explain explain to folks what you why you emphasize that word it just was it was just killing me watching Red Zone on Sunday because they made a specific point of emphasis to uh to bring up the dynamic kickoff and then and but like what what what what I one of the things that like I quietly enjoy about Red Zone because I'm I'm usually like if I'm like engaged in the action I'm not on my phone so I'm not following like the breaking what just happened and uh and so when they cut to a special teams and they did this a couple times I'm usually triggered to okay we got something like something Big's about to happen here and that did happen like the blocked punt for Tennessee was a good example the blocked punt for the uh uh for the Texans was a good example and uh and and then then there were probably 20 other examples of let's go to Houston for a dynamic kickoff and it's a Touchback and like that just that that that over and over again just kind of like proof of concept that like a lot of teams you know oh we made a lot in the preseason about like can't wait till we get to the real games and see what they got planned for these Dynamic kickoffs and you know and the Chiefs kicking through the end zone six times Kelly pointed this out off air though did we even know it was called Dynamic I didn't know I heard I heard it 72 times on Sunday Red Zone had a tund Drew you're right but there was every broadcast I mean it it carried into Sunday Night Football I don't know if I caught as much last night it was like Roger I didn't not last night it was like Roger Goodell called Scott Hansen was like you need to say Dynamic 25 we trademark this okay make sure we get it out there and when and when DJ you know who's getting a you know who's getting a phone call by the way the guy that came up with the branding of dynamic kickoff it didn't work it didn't work out wasn't that it wasn't that Dynamic but when DJ Dallas took it to the house like Scott Hansen acted like somebody threw eight touchdown passes like it was like turn ever too at the end of it you're like is DJ Dallas going to make it I don't know if he's going to make it oh god um so week two what have you bet so far then uh so we so just kind of like a snapshot my biggest adjustment down of any team was Green Bay uh that's obviously because of the absence of Jordan love as aggressive as a downgrade as I can make for Green Bay I still can't get to three and a half here for the Colts I just I upgraded I upgraded Indianapolis too like I was really impressed with the uh kind of explosive nature of uh the downfield passing game there I was impressed with the skill position players besides Pitman who I didn't really hold in especially high regard and uh and yeah so I'm up on the Colts I'm down on the Packers I still can't get to three and a half so I'm out on that game um my other big downgrades we kind of mentioned all involving quarterback Health uh I'm down on Atlanta I'm down on uh Cincinnati I'm down on Cleveland um and then uh downgraded Las Vegas uh to a degree because of the defense being pushed around by the uh Chargers although the Chargers offensive line might be quite special um and then the Raiders uh just in general the coaching was probably the biggest um LOL moment of the weekend with the punt uh pun plural 100th 100th percentile surrender index 100th percentile like we saw the most cowardly punt of all time wow in 2024 you don't say most cowardly Punt and most ridiculous field goal also right yeah yes the coaching was quite bad uh turns out maybe Antonio Pierce was better served as an interim coach but we'll get to that later this season I think um the um uh the upgrades for me were pretty minor uh I'm up on uh Minnesota mostly because the defense was better than I expected but again that could be more Daniel Jones than it would be Flores getting his guys to play Above their their their level uh I'm up on the Chargers that offensive line and just in general the offense being coherent against what I thought was you know one of the better pass rushes in the league heading into week one was uh was very impressive um doesn't matter if they don't have good skill position players if you're going to give Herbert that much time he's going to find lad mcon whenever he feels like it um I'm upgrading New Orleans up on Pittsburgh but mostly just because the defense the Pittsburgh offense Still Remains the worst in the NFL outside of the Carolina Panthers for me uh and then um small upgrades for Tampa Bay it's very very tough to get serious about upgrading some of the teams that played like who we know and expected to be at the bottom of the NFL like so you know I'm very cautiously upgrading the Saints and the bucks for instance but uh I'm also very hopeful that they're good because we need good teams in the NFL badly and um if both of those teams can continue to play the way we saw week one I think we're going to be in for a much more fun NFC race at least so um but I agree with I agree with that sentiment about Carolina Tampa Bay because I was talking about this yesterday which is okay what do what excuse me New Orleans and Tampa Bay which is do we really know if New Orleans is good having played Carolina and the Washington defense was so bad that I don't know if we can make any conclusions about Tampa Bay how did this how did this translate to bets for you have you bet anything yeah so the um uh the one kind of unit that I'm still a little cool on relative to Market and I didn't get a like a a huge sign that I needed to correct was the Miami offense uh and I make the bills actually small favorite on Thursday Night Football so I played Bill's money line plus 117 um in general I still need to see my Miami in a big spot in a prime time Game beat a good team uh so there's like a little bit of an intangibles there on top of just my numbers say the Bills should be small favorites um I played Raiders plus n and a half um I'm not concerned about the availability of Lamar Jackson despite him missing practice but I am uh not anywhere close to a 10-point spread between these two teams um the Raiders you know pass rush aforementioned uh has a brilliant matchup against the B Baltimore pass protection uh that was wildly underwhelming against Kansas City so my fair on that one for instance is like closer to six so nine and a half I felt like a reasonable play even after downgrading the Raiders I'm still there so um that was a fun one I took Tampa plus 7 versus the Lions this is one I had circled in the preseason just because I uh the margin between those two teams in the playoff game when everything was going right for the Lions was still felt like uh you know it was pretty close despite the Lions covering that game uh and now you have uh you know a Buccaneers team that's even more healthy with even better pass protection I think that offense could really do some damage to a lions defense that had no answers for Cooper Cup on Sunday night uh and then I played uh you hold you want you want you want to hold your nose and uh take a terrible team uh in the worst game of the week uh I bet the Giants money line plus 122 uh these it goes back to your point about the Washington Commander defense um they have talent problems they have scheme problems and they have tackling problems and I think just in general other than that other than that and uh and also like Sam darnold played great for the Vikings that was one of the quarterbacks we had questions about and he afforded himself well despite being under pressure quite a lot um I think that the Giants D line is going to have a much more successful day against Daniels despite Daniels being you know quite mobile and uh being the most impressive of the rookies in my opinion uh I still think that the Lions I mean the the Giants D line could be a distinguishing fact there and keeping the commanders in check again uh time by the way Daniel's time to throw 2.3 seconds that's not very that's not very good and I know yeah you're up against you know an aggressive blitzing defense with bows but um that's a huge warning sign kami's defense is even bigger warning sign so uh everybody who buried Daniel Jones and is calling for you know him to be benched blah blah blah I think they may they may need to uh take a seat for a week as the Giants get a win in the capital city RI we might be Oppo on all four of those in terms of my instinct yeah all four of those yeah and and you raise good points on all on on certainly on the Giants commanders more than any like that's the one where I'm like yeah you might be right about that but all four I think my instinct was uh in the other direction we'll see it's week two uh we'll see how these go um but I I think the Ravens the Ravens to me this is the one where I can see them winning by 30 at home against the Raiders could yeah they could um I don't know the ra Raiders don't really I mean the Ravens don't really have a downfield passing attack um that was kind of one of the key takeaways of that game against the Chiefs like there was nobody getting open down the field and uh you know if the you know if if the pass Rush shows up then uh that's kind of what I'm hoping to keep that game close maybe I should have just played the under that feels like a standard Ravens emmo though Drew thank you appreciate it as always Drew did luck you too at whale uncore Capper imagine when Hansen gets to say Dynamic kickoff in Duvall County oh he's going to love that Survivor talk next in the heart of downtown Las Vegas a sports Oasis awaits Stadium swim the ultimate outdoor Amphitheater built for the Ultimate Sports Fan with a colossal screen that brings the game closer than ever reserve a day bed private Cabana or lounge in the center of it all six pools to dive into as the game heats up and the best part there's never an off seon open 365 days a year Stadium swim it's always a spectator season looking for the Ultimate sports betting podcast vison has got you covered with a wide range of podcasts covering every major sport we're here to help you make smarter bets every season the baseball betting show with Greg Peterson gives you daily insights into finding value on each day's MLB card and check out long shots where we Deep dive into the World of Golf betting providing you with expert insights to help you bet every tournament find all of these podcasts and more at von.com podcasts or your favorite podcast platform [Music] [Music] [Music] all oh [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] a numbers game on V the sports betting Network are you the type of player who's looking to get down $10,000 and more on NFL line at the best price of the market will are you it's not rhetorical or perhaps you're looking to get your in-game play inantly accepted introducing sport trade the app that's going to chain sports betting forever minus 104 lines instead of the typical minus 110 instant in-game betting and a concierge player service sport trade perfect for those who want a premium betting experience sport trade live already in New Jersey Colorado and Iowa and coming to Arizona and Virginia this fall download sport trade use code VN to earn 10% cash back on each W during your first week terms apply got to be 21 years or older to play if you are someone you knows a gambling prman wants help call her text 800 Gambler Gil Alexander it's a numbers game Kelly bidin alongside here from Circa um we we will talk baseball I promise you we have not forgotten that baseball exists so we will talk baseball with Paul Spore coming up will Hills got some plays as well uh Paul SK with a good outing yesterday so one of the questions I want to ask is are we sure that national league rookie of the year race is over are we absolutely sure I feel like jvt is leaving leading this charge by the way I believe he said it on air with us last week and then I caught him on the morning line this morning and it was like let's not forget baseball still going on well he said we came on our show he said he goes Gil thank you for keeping baseball alive less than three weeks left in a great season uh we we absolutely have to keep it alive we'll have the uh the September updated uh numbers coming up pretty soon here as well on the show um and I have to get to your tweets we just let just put this one up because we're we're doing this whole thing where we're putting them on screen now and so I'm late giving them to Kelly but here's one from chance Copper Pot uh a few years back your show introduced me to guessing lines this simple practice has completely turned around my NFL bets for the contest in sides I don't look at the line set my own biggest differences get my action love it yeah it's awesome it's a beautiful endorsement yeah I and you know in our opinion everybody should be doing something uh like that you know it's you know Drew just went through his I mean you'll hear a lot of handicappers go true P power ratings right that's what Drew is doing every week that's where he's talking about a lot of bets that he's making in week two upgrading and downgrading numbers from what he had from the preseason leading him to certain bets we might disagree with him on the Raiders one but you know yeah multiple for one of us I mean four those four games where my instinct was the opposite and we I mean one of is going to be very wrong actually we could split him too so I shouldn't say that but it could be that one of us is going to be very right and very wrong my thing with that Raiders Ravens is and I didn't have time to I had interrupted him enough to interrupt him again but the the fact that it's nine and a half if you like the Raiders you probably should wait because it's going to get to 10 right I think so so if if you like that side which I don't I like the Ravens I already put in a minus 9 and a half because I wanted to grab it before it did so on the Baltimore Ravens and by the way I do think that's their ammo all the time is that they don't have wide receiver so you know same Ravens that that that has never stopped him before by you know um from romping teams especially at home in the past yeah I mean I guess we didn't talk a whole lot about that game last Friday cuz we you we whole whole week one slate to get to and everything but the like I mean z flowers looked really damn good to me like that is a watch out for him I think going forward yeah I guess I mean not downfield passing that that that's true they were using him in other ways but we talked about it a little Friday cuz that was a Thursday game I mean I don't think I learned anything I don't think anything about my handicap of the Ravens was changed by losing to the to the Chiefs in that fashion I don't know maybe maybe you two uh me and you are too early to jump to the oh boy does this spot look juicy but man I'm sorry coming off off of a loss against Kan city let's get M around here spot extra rest against this Raiders team yeah I'm I'm lay in the wood with the r a good spot for them what's your favorite spot Revenge spots uh sandwich spots what's your favorite spot when people do NFL handicapping it's all the Sandwich Spot is always uh that there's always that it's the let down spot too right they're kind of the same thing a lot of times like if you're in a Sandwich Spot it's a let down that's right um okay I'm very excited about this freaked out about that Matt went crazy on Prime Time action about spots he just screaming um okay so Survivor week two I I'm going to go to you first cuz you said you you've narrowed it down to a couple I would love to hear this cuz I've narrowed it down to nothing so I wanted to talk to you about this we did get a couple tweets about this too of just kind of like what what do you think your strategy is rest of season and I you I don't know if I was I think this may be be this might be one of my biggest week one takeaways is I don't know if I was sold before the season on just fading some of the bad teams throughout the entire year and at that time you know you're thinking mainly New England you're thinking mainly uh you know the Giants for me those were the the two I had circled but I mean after you saw that Carolina New Orleans game it's add Carolina to the list so I think most of the Season that will be my strategy however this week I don't know that you fully have the opportunity to do that that's the problem but I think your strategy and I believe I said this on that 9 the Quest for 9.2 million docu series the easiest the the cleanest strategy in Survivor is just that right find the bad teams and if they are so bad just fade them every week and then again the very first year of circus Survivor 2020 the the uh the pandemic year that's how most of us got as far as we did just fading the Jets and the Jaguars and again then the Jets nipped Us in the butt because they beat the Rams as a 17o the Rams were 17-point favorite they lost at home to the Jets so it can take you far but nothing is not a landmine I mean everything's a potential landmine and to your point Kelly Carolina do you want to take the Chargers on the road against them no do you want to take Washington at home against the Giants no uh what was the third one New England do you want to do you they Seattle at home do you want to take Seattle on the road against new Eng already I already played him in one contest but like but no I I don't no no I already played him in week one with one of my entries but no not really so that's the problem with week two you have you have immediately crystallized my thoughts well and it goes even further right so that is I think that will be my strategy for most of the season is trying to Target those three teams but you got to get over this week but then there's okay there are two though that I mentioned yesterday that I bet yesterday that immediately jump out to me as I think great plays this week for I I like them for bets I like them for Survivor plays and those would be the Baltimore Ravens and the Houston Texans now what's the big problem with both of those teams though let me guess they have a they have a Thanksgiving or Christmas problem they both play on Christmas and they I mean so they would be two of your four options basically on Christmas this was exactly what I landed on as well which is so I don't think I can play them and and and by the way cuz if you go to Christmas and again think about where our heads are week you know here before week two we already talked about how there's a lot of our preas and assumptions weren't right in week one so why would we be so arrogant to look at the Christmas schedule and say to ourselves all right well the Texans are at home against the Ravens that's probably not one you would play anyway so maybe you can play the Texans here and the other one was the oh good point they play each other they play each other so that does help out so that does help out right so now okay so if you know look the problem with that is the only the only issue with that is is helping me figure out my select the only issue with that is God forbid I'm not wishing this but at some point between week two now and week 17 which is when Christmas is could you have a catastrophic injury to a key player I don't want to name names cuz I don't want to put it in the universe absolutely and then that game could Avail itself and remember on Christmas unlike so Christmas is December 25th the the Christmas quote unquote is three games two on Christmas and one on December 26 so it's Chiefs at Steelers Ravens at Texans Seahawks at Bears okay it's only three games yeah I mean I have the chief circled for that week if you're already eliminating the Ravens Texans as a possibility then you're down to two games for what would be the third to last is that going to be uh no that would be yes that would be the third to last quote unquote week yeah in Circus Survivor you would be reducing yourself to two football games if you are in fact going to play these teams this week so can you really afford to do that even though they're playing each other I don't know this is the beauty this is the puzzle of Survivor I'm stuck a little bit this week because of that show the chest air for everybody I think I'm still I think I'm still I think I'm still uh there it is I think I'm still leaning one of those ways this week but I don't know cuz there are plenty of other big favorites that that you could look at this we okay you say that right and I look at this I look at these quote unquote big favorites I don't know why I say quote unquote on that one but they are the the biggest the biggest favorites on the board and you're talking about Dallas but that has a Thanksgiving consideration Dallas over the Saints Detroit over the Buccaneers that's Thanksgiving as well plus like both both of those I'll just go back to are you that that confident like I'm not that confident in the Lions or the Cowboys were impressive we already talked about the Chargers are the other bigger favorite right six and a half so okay from the top of the board here we show this if you're watching us so Ravens we already we already talked about there on Christmas Chargers I mean do you feel confident playing them on the road against the Panthers maybe you do maybe you land on the Chargers Cowboys are Thanksgiving lions are Thanksgiving the Chiefs play on both Thanksgiving and Christmas I don't think you can even consider I don't think you can consider them the Texas we said played on Christmas and then do you want to do you want to just bust out the Eagles when there are more natural places I think to play the eag I agree but but I feel that I feel that way about Eagles Cowboys and lions I I don't know that like these feel like week two and look I'm not on the dog in any of those three games but these feel like a little bit of week two NFL are we reacting too much to what we saw week one with these other teams am I going to have to play the Chargers I know I is Wayne Brady going to have to play the Chargers I feel like that's I feel like that's what we're talking ourselves into here uh that's I I'm not doing that though I'm not doing that in week two I don't think I'm doing that this is brutal Chargers have no offensive players no man they got a good line we have come to no conclusions here none Will hill on the other side with his baseball thoughts next a new football season means a new lineup on Von start your day