NFL DFS Showdown Live Before Lock | Bills-Dolphins TNF Week 2 DFS Picks

[Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] I I have so much I got you I got you I have so much more to say about this yeah I mean I was just laughing I was like how is this possible how is it possible the answer is it it might not be you know it's not hey good afternoon happy holidays I'm Dave lockran with Greg aronberg it is the NFL showdown live before lock Miami Dolphins Buffalo Bills heck of a game hovering around the 50o total tight spread inside of a field goal at Hard Rock stadium in Miami Florida uh there was some weather apparently for this game I looked at the weather it's going to be humid but like they were talking about rain and nasty Fields Greg I pulled all of this up like an hour ago two hours ago four I didn't see anything concerning at all we had that the the the first game we did together as well where I get that it had the late the late start due to the rain it got pushed back it didn't end up mattering though it was high scoring teams are going back and forth there was no issue throwing the ball down the fields teams were able to kick and it was same sort of deal we looked at weather at first it was like all right maybe this is an issue then you and I trusted our number one weather Source in the DFS space google.com we looked it up we looked at some weather radars we looked at the weather like it's going to be fine I think today's the same I think so too humid but and you know another thing like I think listen I don't discount the humidity I was watching John Gruden's breakdown of this game and he's talking about that and like how it can impact the defensive line but I don't this is the way I don't think it impacts the dline for Buffalo more than Miami and here's why there's not going to be any sun and the way that we know that stadium is designed is where the sun you know in those afternoon games is just beating down on the road team there's not gonna be any sun so I I don't know I don't just anticipate Miami being far more conditioned for a spot like this now if you wanted to make the argument you know it's a short week Buffalo is the one traveling and everything we could definitely get into that but it's going to be a fun game it's going to be a really fun game and I I I think you know you should have some scoring but the biggest thing now is that Devon aan is is is active I'm so I actually bet and don't take this as any DFS advice because it it's completely untethered from it it's not the same thing I did bet some alt unders on him Greg around like the plus 475 range just in case he's active and he doesn't get a lot of work small plays on something like that but at the same time I could see him just going over everything in the first half and I wouldn't be surprised did you see the the Tweet we got the update right before we started the show which it's something that it's not going to impact his upside for DFS but it's kind of scary when you're trying to figure out the downside which relates to the bets that you had placed right there where we found out he's going to handle here I'm going to make sure I get the wording exactly right here uh Devon H Chan expected to lead backfield Thursday as long as ankle injury holds up I don't like the last part of that sentence right that's what so you can see why I sprinkled yeah you know it's but it's also like I said it could be over in short short order and then it's not a big deal but um yeah it's it's Nate said I know it's not a showdown but is hn too cheap for the full Week contest at 6,500 the problem I have with that is on a like on a showdown you don't have many Alterna on a on a full week at that 6K range you have a million other options who we know are healthy and get big workloads something else as well if you guys play the Thursday to Monday slate which I I think that's what you said is the one that he's looking at is a lot of people play that slate just to be able to jam the Thursday night football game in so what ends up happening is you get players who are way over own in that Thursday night game now with that said I understand this is a much better Thursday night football game than we usually see for DFS Thursday night football game so it happens even if like the the Browns are playing uh like the Panthers you'll still see it with inflated ownership for Thursday through Sunday slate so not necessarily saying that you have to avoid this game or anything like that if you're playing the Thursday through Sunday slate but don't just Jam in the players because they're available for tonight's game they're going to be over owned for sure Jake says Dave you took the Jets so I'm not taking your props all good brother but did you see the props we hit last week apparently not apparently not we hit some monster props last week got the Jets wrong who gives a [ __ ] anyway AJ glav gonna be sad with his bills bet tonight Dolphins by seven could be it's a tough game it's a tough game but Josh Allen's 10 and one career against the the Dolphins 10-2 six- one against Tua been pretty good I'll tell you the worst Trend I saw today uh I think it was fanatic sports book actually tweeted out Josh Allen is undefeated in Thursday on Thursdays then people like oh my God I have to bet the bills I mean that that is so lacking in context that it don't ever place a bet based on somebody's record on Thursdays no no oh I mean look if you wanted to make the argument that this guy can work well on short rest sure but there has to be a whole lot more than that anyway let's go time to talk some football happy to have you guys with us already at a 100 likes see I mean just appreciate you guys out of the gate a 100 thumbs up subscribe to the channel we're very close to 100,000 Subs very close we got like what 1,200 left to go or something something like that yeah yeah so help us get there we appreciate you and atone for your sins this uh Thursday a or Thursday evening hit that thumbs up all right let's go Mark said Gotta Give A like to the snake killer Israel appreciate you man prompting everybody time to atone for those sins that is correct and Chris Williams as always popping in GIF in tense totic memberships here on YouTube all of you guys yeah goes a long way all right let's do it so we'll start with I I don't want to start just team by team here and we'll take your questions we'll take your super chats I know Greg is uh constantly monitoring the Discord as well if you have a premium sub and you haven't jumped in Discord yet definitely do it not just for that but for you know all of the updates you know early updates and and the news that you have from the channel the community and any questions or comments or tutorials that you're looking for all right so Tyreek Hill and Josh Allen up top like top top we'll talk about hm we'll talk about two James Cook all of those guys are expensive as well you have a handful of expensive guys and if you want to include Jaylen Wadd in the mix that's just another one of them but I told Matt keski today I was a little bit surprised that Josh Allen is so negatively leveraged and Tyreek Hill is positively leveraged obviously this is not a slight towards Hill at all but just that Josh Allen is so capable of doing everything and our tools usually love rushing quarterbacks usually love them he's expensive Tyreek Hill he's also popular uh he is pulling a little bit more ownership than Josh Allen but like you said ly I'm running stuff through our Sims and I do get myself to more exposure to Tyreek Hill than I do to Josh Allen I've got three Captain options now that I'm pretty heavily exposed to Josh Allen and Tyreek Hill are each uh they're two out of the three but as far as Tyreek Hill goes I think a big part of this also has to be that I don't know that they're going to want to give aan like 20 plus touches we've seen that pretty consistently over the course of his career is he going to lead the backfield barring injury or crazy circumstance today yes but I don't know that they're just want to jam a Chan today and if that's going to be the case they want to be a little bit cautious with his workload not 100% short work that means that Miami is going to be throwing the ball more and Miami throwing the ball more usually is going to mean good things for Tyreek kill because he has been pretty much Unstoppable especially from a fantasy standpoint over the last year plus so if you're looking to pay up for your captain option today you're in between Tyreek killer Josh Allen there are a million good things we could say about both of them but I really do lean towards Tyreek Hill for those reasons I just mentioned okay and I totally understand that I do it's I mean really trying to get both of them makes a lot of sense when I ran the Sims earlier it was a lot of Captain Hill but then also an insane amount of of Allen in the flex so it's not like the Sims didn't like him the Sims just liked Hill more at Captain than it liked Allen at Flex or I'm sorry then it liked Allen a captain and I understand that I think also the other you know the pivot that you look towards in a spot like this and I don't know how frequently you're getting there tonight we can kind of break this down how often are you willing to go cheap at Captain it's it's one of those weird slates where like could you get an Allen Lazard type game you know with the two touchdowns and then you know you have everybody else of course Jordan Mason had a huge game but you you get my point you have all of this spread out wide Target share a buffalo team whose motto throughout the summer was everyone eats which like is the worst thing you want to hear you know the most Targets on the team last week was Keon Coleman with five 23% Target share though because Allen only threw 23 times but then you have King Kate who was very very quiet you had khil Shakir and dude you you had Mack Hollands scoring a touchdown you have Curtis Samu who with the turf toe probably isn't healthy and then my god get past Tyreek Hill waddle and probably the wide receiver three Devon aan in Miami there's nothing reliable at all no and uh one other thing too is I don't know if you had seen this but mcdermit said on on Sunday in the postgame press conference that Samuel is healthy he actually said that the toe was not related to his limited workload he just said that was kind of the way the game was going which just it it doesn't mean that he can't play a bigger role today it just means that it's going to be really uncertain there's GNA be a lot of variant what happens with those bills pass catchers if you remember you and I did a first look show when pricing first came out on draftking so that was I don't even remember how long ago now like a month ago or something like that and when we were doing it we were looking over the bills pass catchers and we were trying to figure out who is going to be the number one guy this year and who it is that we wanted to Target for week one and we kind of came to the conclusion that we have no clue who the hell the guy was going to be going into the season now we've seen them play a game and I have even less of a feel for what it's going to be because the one guy I said that I felt pretty confident in was going to get a lot of Target this year was going to be king Cade and we didn't know what was gonna happen with the wide receivers and King Kade wasn't even that involved in week one he has to be though going forward right You' think so Coleman led the receivers in snaps and let all pass catchers and routes run per drop back so there's that as well I said to gajeski at 10: a.m. on the strategy show if there's one thing a quarterback likes is throwing one up you know in you know just so okay if you you did you see the uh Keon Coleman catch down the sideline yes all right he's throwing it up he's got a guy draped on him but makes just quickly turns around gets the ball two feet down that's a tough that's a tough ball and I know that's kind of what he's known for but you know maybe you're starting to gain some trust after just one week you're a rookie I wouldn't be shocked if Josh Allen looks his way today too because they drafted this guy to be you know hopefully the replacement in some form or fashion not that he's a one for one with Diggs he's not the same type of player but like a guy that can get that can handle a lot of targets it's still complet complely completely in question though I have no clue like I I would look at it and I still think like the top options there for me Coleman Kade and Shakir I still think those guys are the are the top options but then if you factor pricing into this all right well now you've got what you've got Kade at in the flex at 72 you have Shakir at 62 Keon Coleman's the cheapest of the of that Trio yeah and it it's still it's hard to know who's going to be the guy I do think Coleman has the most upside though so he's the one who lands in the most of my lineups because in a situation we're in doubt we don't know who it's going to be it's a one game Showdown slate it really pays out topheavy all these contest I'm going to be targeting the most of Keon Coleman just because he's the one who like I said I presume has the most upside but we have so many players from Miami because the workloads are more projectable projecting out better I don't know if you've built out your lineup ups are uploaded them yet ly but I've got my lineups finalized of my seven most rostered players six of them are from the Dolphins who are they Tua Tyreek Hill aan Jeff Wilson who I'm surprised is not more popular Jason Sanders and Jaylen Wadd the only player from the bills who's one of my seven most rostered players is Josh Allen wow okay all right I do understand it though but you know what about Wright what about Jaylen Wright what about using his a guy like his him his skill set to kind of offset that injury to to Devon Anan do you think he could get some work today because Jeff Wilson got worked in last week even before Raheem moer got hurt yeah so I think Wright is a viable contrarian option I prefer Jeff Wilson though it's just hard for me to just from like a logic standpoint say Jeff Wilson played last week Wright did not play last week therefore I have to assume going into today Jeff Wilson plays more than Wright so with that being in mind and also neither of them are all that popular Wright is more contrarian you got Wright around 10% ownership and then Wilson just under 20% ownership the price point also very similar between them Jeff Wilson the flex 2400 right in the flex he is 2,000 so I lean a little bit more toward Jeff Wilson but I am overweight to both of them as contrarian options I think actually of players that are sub 20% owned yeah those two as well as Jason Sanders are the ones I have the most of man I can't get away from the thought that hn is just going to crush or really not be himself yeah I think there's a really wide range of outcomes and that is also part of the reason why I am underweight to Anan in the flex spot overweight to him in the captain spot ah I like that thinking sure I mean you're you're basically playing the boom bust yeah and then also if you look at him in the captain spot he's projected for just over 10% ownership it's another way too where if you have a lineup that doesn't have Tyre kill in it it makes a lot of sense that you would have Anan in the captain spot instead because you have to figure what are the ways Tyreek Hill fails and I think it's probably like realistically one of two things it's either that Jaylen Wadd has the big game at wide out or maybe the Dolphins just holding a comfortable lead they're running more in the second half and hn just ends up grinding out the clock and they're able to run a little bit more in the second half of the game so that that's where I think the upside of Anan comes into into play so I do like him more as a captain than a flex option what are the way heill fails tonight I mean I think the I think one of the way that he fails is just he has a decent game but not a great game and he's insanely expensive like if it's a high-scoring game and wle goes off and hn goes off and and and Allen goes off and you know James Cook or or one of the pass catchers for for Buffalo and he'll has like 19 fantasy points probably I mean it definitely won't be enough at Captain but it probably won't be enough in general yeah he so the way that he is not in the optimal lineup is like you said he could score 19 20 fantasy points and have himself a good game but like Josh Allen scores 25 and then you need Josh Allen in that multiplier spot instead of him H but I think the ways that Tyreek Hill is most likely to fail either the Wadd is the guy who gets the targets you get a situation where the Dolphins are up big and they're running the ball more in the second half maybe they work in right Wilson more in that scenario or maybe just gets arrested five minutes before the game any of those three outcomes and that's that's where you get the that's where you get the bad Tyreek kill detained Greg tained that's right he's no Scotty shuffler yeah but also I agree it's we we've reached a point now where Tyreek Hill is just so good that when you're playing him on a slate like this or or when you have him on a slate like this it's hard not to play him how much Captain do you have of Tyreek Hill all right Captain Tyreek Hill he's the one I have the most of just under 30% which is a lot for a showdown site yep and it's overweight to him he's also expect to the most popular Captain but I I think like if you guys are playing cash games today I I'm sure that something that either people are gonna ask in Discord or it might just come up in the YouTube chat if you're playing a cash game today I definitely think Tyreek kill is the guy to go to in the multiplier spot for DraftKings cash games fandu I would say Josh Allen in the MVP spot but DraftKings cash games Tyreek kill multiplier spot yeah it gotta be yeah absolutely has to be um when you look at Tua he's not somebody that has a a he's he doesn't have rushing upside right there's no rushing upside with Tua but I but then okay so if you're playing Tua and I would assume like you said he's one of highest seven uh of all players right is he your highest owned overall Tyreek Kell uh Tua uh no Tyreek kill is okay let's talk about what those two lineups look like so if we're playing T you you have a few guys that if you really wanted to to to go down to the you know in the in the dumpster dive down there and see what you can find you I suppose you could go to a dir Smite there Braxton Berrios a couple of those guys Janu Smith who was barely used last game kind of surprising you could do that outside of the Tyreek Hill and the Jaylen waddle but what do you think the optimal two of lineups look like given that they really only have a few guys that they feature yeah so I wouldn't want it to be Tyreek I wouldn't want it to be Tua in the captain spot I've got some lineups with two in Captain but not all that many Einstein him asked us a question and Discord as well he said thoughts on Tua as a captain option tonight it's kind of hard the path for a non-running quarterback on a showdown like with a lot of other fantasy studs to be in the winning lineup in the multiplier spot so the guys that I like the most in the multiplier spot today as my LS are finalized it's Hill it's Anan it's Josh Allen it's Jaylen Wadd just because those are the players that have the highest upsides to your point about what does a two lineup look like if he's op I think it's most likely Tua in the flex spot and then it's either tyriek Hill or Jaylen wad as the captain is just being the guy who has like the 100 plus yard receiving game with maybe a touchdown mixed in but it's really not to me super likely that two would be optimal as the m in in a multiplier spot for DraftKings or FanDuel we had a question too that was that was FanDuel related uh and and it was essentially hey is there any way that that you can get the question was from Jake do you see anyone besides Allen or Hill being the MVP on FanDuel this is where I personally just don't love the single game stuff on FanDuel because you kind of run into a couple of things first off Josh Allen Tyreek Hill they project for so many more fantasy points than everybody else that they are overwhelmingly likely to be in the optimal MVP lineup here's the other issue with that though is like okay we could eliminate it down it's probably going to be one of these two guys but then the entire field is aware of that too and it just becomes really difficult to build unique lineups on fand with either of them in that multiplier spot so the the qu it was it was a gpp question correct yeah yeah so it's going to be very likely that it's either Hill or Josh Allen as the winning MVP on FanDuel but with that in mind they're going to be outrageously popular so you have to do a couple of things either you have to leave salary on the table and playing one of the as the MVP which is my preferred way to build lineups for this late or you kind of have to just plug your nose and say I'm taking a chance and putting in like a Chan at the MVP spot or something like that and just hoping he's the one who scores the touchdowns I personally prefer to leave the salary on the table today because it's those are the two paths you have to build unique lineups the one thing you do not want to do in Showdown or single game is play lineups that are expected to be heavily duped for what it's worth though there are guys that have considerable upside on this slate that aren't Hill and Allen don't get me wrong they definitely project far better than everybody else but wd's a hell of a player aan without Raheem moer like let's just say if if if there weren't concerns around aan I don't I think I'm not saying we'd be putting him in the same conversation but even so his rushing plus receiving yards prop it's at 82 and a half Greg like it's a big number when you consider that this guy is kind of the the working wide receiver three on this team right now you know he ran the behind H and wild he ran the most routes in week one the only question is like are you willing to to risk the fact that he might not be right and he might be limited I always am always I'm always willing to take that chance unless it's something that's just clearly obvious but in a case like this where there's so much am am ambiguity I I look at a guy in hn if he had 150 yards and two touchdowns and was the highest score is there anybody who would be left scratching their head at the end of this game I think the answer to that is a resounding no we we saw him do it in like eight touches in some games last year right so yeah there there is a ceiling there if and like I said my preference to playing FanDuel GP PS tonight is to go to Allen or Tyreek Hill and just leave a good amount of salary on the table but if you were to press me and say all right I don't want to do that I want to play somebody who isn't Allen or Hill at the MVP spot the answer to me is very very clearly go with Anan as the guy who has the next most upside and then also you go and look in uh in the YouTube chat and you can just see the dissenting opinions where it ranges from hn is going to crush today he's going to be the highest scorer to I can't play him I'm terrified of his injury and there are no takes in between isn't that funny how that works I feel the exact same way I feel I feel the exact same way too except I'm not as steadfast in my beliefs here because I I'm not gonna pretend that I think I know like we don't know I could see it going either way so it's gonna seem obvious after the fact if he if he goes out and has a massive game we're gonna be like ah should have played should have played him in all of our lineups if he gets hurt on the first drive or he gets the first touch and Jeff and gets the second touch be like yeah no [ __ ] this is what happened it's a short week and he just left the game early so I'm I i' I'm like I said I'm playing it to where I'm underwe to him in the flex spot overweight to him in the captain spot that's how I think is the you best capitalize on his upside well here's a better question for you how are you playing non Devon hn lineups Jeff Wilson yeah and a little bit a little bit of right as well but I mean just looking through my lineups that we have here in our Sims and looking at some of my top ones it does seem that almost all of my lineups that don't have Anan either have Jeff Wilson or have writen them probably should be it's not a guarantee that if hn doesn't have a good game Wilson or Wright will but it's far more likely and at those price points you're probably be very tough to get away from that for sure uh looking at the Sims run I just reran mine here probably for the last time uh pulling up exposures before I submit all of this I have a lot of Tua at the flex right now a lot as well h a lot of Tyreek killet Captain a lot of flex Wadd Flex Josh Allen James Cook King Cade and aan aan I would definitely like to get a bit of a boost there to H anic Captain because I think your logic makes a lot of sense if you're playing him for the Boomer bust and you're not just straight fading him or straight jamming him then it would just make sense that if you scattered across your lineups you're more overweight in the captain spot I like that also as far as uh a question that you had asked me at the top that I just realized I didn't answer and then it came up up in the YouTube chat because I I think I was just talking about a bunch of things is you would ask about a cheap Captain if I'm going cheap at Captain which is not my favorite way to build lineups for this slate but if I am going cheap at Captain the answer to me is Jeff Wilson and then the lineup doesn't have hn in the flex because that's a lineup that is such a clear path to upside hn either isn't able to deal with the ankle injury or he's more limited than we expect and then Jeff Wilson just becomes a really clear upside Target in the multiply spot yeah absolutely the jayen Wright thing though is is interesting because you're talking about a guy that they bring in fourth round now Devon aan was a third rounder as well right so third round fourth round once you get there whatever and he's the type of guy that could immediately kind of slot into this offense like Anan did last year now I'm not going to ignore what you mentioned earlier he was inactive last week Jeff Wilson was active so sure but also also it's Mike McDaniel and this guy's so hard to figure out I told you he speaks in in riddles and in code and ciphers and you kind of have to just you know crack whatever he's trying to say it's tough but the let's look let's pull up ownership Jordan do me a favor pull up ownership uh Not Just donish sh but pull up the top single game uh and Showdown plays tool and let's see what let's see what we're looking at here for for hn for Wilson and for Wright so hn right now 10% Captain ownership we just updated this 14 minutes ago uh if you're a sub if you're not you can look at it on the screen 38% utility ownership Jeff Wilson 2% Captain 22% utility and where's Jaylen Wright let me see if I he is down he is he is like 7% owned now 7.9% ownership now that Devon hn is active I I think it's if if you're really projecting sub 10% Flex ownership for a 2K jayen right seeing that they use three running backs last week I'm willing to take some shots there for sure yeah of the guys who are sub 10% owned he's my he's my preference I'd feel differently too if this were not the Miami dolphins that are really creative on run plays and really creative with how they use their running backs you know what I mean yeah I mean we've seen it's it's easy to forget this but last year hn was in was an inactive healthy scratch for week one of the Season yep that doesn't mean that Jaylen Wright becomes Anan as the season goes on but we've seen this game script from them for young running backs and if there's a scenario moer is out for an extended period of time it it would not be the most surprising thing in the world if by the end of the year there is a significant workload for jayen Wright it just becomes tricky trying to figure out same with Anan last year when does it happen and when does the workload really start to take off or is it just one of these scenarios where he ends up being you know also like aan where it's like oh no look he could actually score 30 fantasy points on five touches somehow yeah right and we don't know he only played 10% of snaps the next week and then the week after that he played 41% of snaps and then he was just in a time share with rahee moard for the rest of the season yeah I don't know we'll see they still like mostard so I assume he's gonna still have a significant role when he returns reev seagull asked thoughts on baros yeah so the problem with with Braxton baros is that he's the number four he's not even the number three in the passing game you know even even if Anan isn't right they just hate going to these guys they made no real upgrades is Braxton barers Grant Duos you know Grant Duos of course Greg right and Robbie Chosen and then Julian Hill dorham Smite Johnny Smith and Tanner Connor at tight end if you're going to one of those guys sure it's Braxton Barrios I'm not GNA argue with you on that but even last week you know you look at routes run right 36 for Tyreek Hill 32 for bottle and he left for a couple of plays right got banged up 26 for aan 20 routes for Raheem art 18 for baros he ran fewer routes than both of the the we'll call them starting running backs he ran basically the same as Julian Hill and Janu Smith and Durham Smite so as crazy as it sounds I don't really think there's any significant difference between any of those three tight ends in Braxton beros this week because Janu saw two Targets dur Smite caught none of them but saw three Targets on the day Julian Hill had one reception W one Target and Braxton baros had no receptions on two Targets it's like they're all the same player I know it's only one week Greg don't get me wrong but it's pretty evident that this team just doesn't use those type of guys if Braxton beros gets there it's because he has like a 25 yard touchdown on one of his two or three targets yeah I think there's a lot of kind of interchangeable cheap guys since we've already talked about a lot of cheap players from the Dolphins the running backs obviously if I'm going to go cheap at wide receiver I'd actually lean more towards Matt Collins than Braxton baros if I was going to build one lineup not that Mt Hollins was crazy involved last week either but from just a lineup construction standpoint since we or at least I am so much heavier on the dolphin side if I do want to get a little bit of more exposure to the bills as well it would make sense to get Matt Collins as a pun option only got two Targets last week but at least one of them did come in the red zone ended up scoring a touchdown so ma Hollins if I'm going to punch wide receiver and then also trying to figure out a way where hey the bills might not score zero points or somebody other than Josh Allen might score fantasy points I I don't think Matt Collins is the worst punt at wide receiver well also to what you're saying it's with Miami it's not a those that group of four let's say right those guys down towards the bot you want to include Robbie chosen or any of those guys fine that's all com like that's unknown but everybody ahead of them is not unknown like you're talking about a 30 plus perc Target shared player in Tyreek Hill a 20 let's say 22 to 25% Target shared player in Jaylen Wad and then running backs who are featured heavily in the passing game and then it's those guys at least you could make the argument for Buffalo that hey none of these guys may have a high Target share but we also don't know right like there's no clearcut hierarchy hierarchy of Targets in Buffalo where in Miami it's very evident if you're playing those guys you're legitimately hoping for one or two Targets whereas with Buffalo some of those cheaper guys and I know Keon Coleman's a little bit more expensive uh but still one of those guys just might pop off for nine targets one day and you're like oh wow okay so so he's the guy or he's getting the work if Braxton baros or dorham SMI or Julian Hill had a a nine Target game you'd be shocked yeah yeah and I I think just I feel the exact same way about what you had said before the targets so spread out just uh pulling up the actual numbers here the only pass catcher on the bills last week that had more than three targets was Keon Coleman and it was five it was really really spread out there's no scenario where Braxton baros is the number two wide receiver for the Dolphins this year I'm not saying it's likely but there is a scenario where Matt Collins ends up being the number two wide receiver for Buffalo this year because it's so up for grabs what they're going to do with their targets let's take a couple super chats uh goodie what's up brother preferred captain on DraftKings for three Max and single entry high stakes great to have football back damn right so prefer captain on DraftKings for three Max and single entry high stakes so for me I am playing Tyreek Hill in single entry I am also though so right now I have my my lineups all set uh Tyreek Hill I'm like 90% sure that that's the direction I'm going to go with my single entry lineup there's a part of me though that's thinking in the back of my head that at high stakes there's going to be a lot of people flocking towards Tyreek kill and do I get myself leverage if I play aan in my high stake single entry lineups at the multiplier spot so my answer is going to be Tyreek Hill but if you want to be different I think Anan is a is a very viable upside especially for single entry contests what about leverage with Wadd on the other side of Hill there's a case for it but I just have so much more exposure to Anan in the multiplier spot than I do to Wadd that I would be more app to go to hm it it does make more sense Dylan uh spray said he's a member on the site every time he tries to hit Discord opens and doesn't add the channel uh just hit us up we could probably just manually add you if you email us support at stochastic you know what it might be also there's like those weird dropdown menus on Discord sometimes hit the arrow to see if the Channel show up because that's what happens sometimes okay by the way shout out to you guys 2,300 pe oh my we're gonna get 2500 people watching with us today hit that thumbs up if you haven't done so yet uh and as you guys already know if you if you expand the description down there you'll see all of the all of the the sub packages right so if you wanted to do the light version the core the Sims uh Max we revamped our entire subscription model going into this season because the idea was like look we I think fair to say screwed up not giving something for everybody last year uh in the sense of like look The Sims Max is clearly a awesome product and Fant we had we had multiple Millionaire Maker winners last year with the Sims but at the same time not everybody's 150 Max and Greg so now we have the single lineup Sim where you can handb build your lineups Sim them and get instant feedback on all of them we still have the boom bus tool the top Stacks Tool The Showdown tools the Discord the ownership projections uh lineup generator every single tool and all of those by the way are included in the NFL core monthly and Core weekly and it's just a lot cheaper than the other ones so if last year you're like you know what it's just I don't play this heavily I would say this year it's an entirely different experience for anybody looking to join Y and if you guys want uh any information on how to use the tools I've got tutorials up on the website but also anything you sign up for on the site anything at all does get you access to our Discord Channel I did an office hours yesterday uh Steve did one today once basketball season starts I'm G to be doing it every single day so not only could I talk about how to use tools or any kind of questions people might have like that about our site but also if you have questions about individual slates I'll be able to do it every day for NBA season during the weekdays so if we want to talk about individual slates we could do that as well I'm just not going to do it every day for football because like Tuesday Wednesday it would just be like the same main slate to talk about for sure links in the description in in chat if you're not there yet uh football today's a perfect time you got Thursday you got Sunday every slate all of our tools cover every slate even the even The Showdown slates on Sunday afternoon Sunday night Monday night everything so you're getting all of those games if you wanted to try a week out perfect time to do so all right so super chats let's go hly Pon bills sell out the do the Bills sell out the stop Tyreek best game is 69 yards with one touchdown and past seven matchups talk me off being underweight I'm terrified so here's the I look at this in two different ways one the bills definitely do sell out to stop Tyreek they try they also overhauled their secondary and they lost some key pieces there I think it could be difficult but they definitely sell out the stop I also think it's going to be really difficult to stop him even though they've done it in the past I have an immense amount of respect for Shawn McDermot no doubt about it and I think he's gonna scheme up some ways to kind of limit him if that's your thinking then Jaylen Wadd and Devon hen just look that much better but it's kind of an individual process for anybody that's thinking this way Greg because we don't know exactly what they're going to do they've done a good job of it in the past but the team does look a little bit different on defense but if you think that's the case then there are amazing Alternatives who would benefit from from Tyreek Hill struggling I try to not put too much thought into it just because it's unknowable like we'll know after the game but going in we just kind of have the data at hand we have our projections I let the Sims do their work and it it's just just something that's so hard for me to put any kind of stock into because it may or may not be the case and even if it is the case it doesn't mean they stop Tyreek hill we saw last week oh my God Tyreek kills chalk he's having a shitty game he's having a shitty game and he catches an 80 yard touchdown pass none of it matters it only takes it only takes one play right so it's he's my most rostered player overall on the Slate it is possible they sell out to stop him but it's also possible they don't so I I just don't worry about it all that much I hear you it's a fair question though man it's it's a very fair question because we have seen him in the past do that I mean just like you talked about the Chiefs every time they face Mark Andrews just completely putting the clamps on him except Tyreek Hill is just a different type of player he's the best pass catcher in football Wally G with the Super Chat was worried about all of you NFL podcasters a lot of you looked like you were suffering from football withdraw in week one week two color coming back yeah brother we're back we're back you can only talk so much baseball you know what I mean I mean get forced to because I because I do you know livee before lock every day of the summer for for baseball but yeah it's good we got football back basketball in like five weeks because the season starts October 22nd so yeah I will not be going back outside until I don't know March or something like that something yeah I got I took the dog out for a walk today I needed to get some vitamin D man I've been I've been cooped up inside for a long time uh hey great question from Michael Henry I don't know if you have one run or maybe Jordan did most GRE he said Greg what is the most duped lineup on FanDuel uh if you don't have a Jordan we still have a bit of time if you didn't run a FanDuel one yet go ahead and do that I'd be curious to just filter by dupes in The Sims tool and see what the most duped lineup is it's actually a great question we should do that more often and start looking at what lineups are are duped the most actually used to do that on this show should bring that back I keep meaning to do Twitter content around it and post some threads about the most duped lineups but I only dealt with the most dumb and ridiculous [ __ ] today which kind of uh sidetracked me a little bit but uh I'm going to I'll start I'll start doing that because I do agree it's good content yeah I think people would want to see that for sure and while it's not a cash game tool if you're using it for that just play the most duped lineup uh Super Chat from Plan B smoothies happy birthday lafy thank you for helping with rent today appreciate you man happy birthday it birthdays as ly has around here he's got to be like 800 years old it's amazing it's got it is not my birthday March 26 put it in your calendar put it in your calendar all right so most duped line up on DraftKings how about this this is crazy you know how people man for those of you guys who are still sticking around this will go this will speak exactly to what Greg and I always talk about and what Matt and I always talk about you know how people always play the cheap guy at Captain thinking they're getting different but then they just Jam every expensive player and then they end up being duped more than any other lineup right yeah is it I I haven't I haven't looked at the most duped lineup is it it's not a Jeff Wilson lineup is it yes it is wow but it's ready Jeff Wilson Tyreek Hill Jaylen W Josh Allen Tua and Keon Coleman so it's just jamming guys outside of James Cook just Jam not Anan but you know you the second most is a Tyreek Captain Dolphins James cook Wadd Jeff Wilson Tua so that's a 5-1 a lot of 5-1 miamis in here um a 33 the fifth most duped lineup Tyreek Hill Jason Sanders Allen Keon Coleman Mack Holland and Tua that seems pretty chalky as well I will say though the second how about this what do you make of this the second no not the second I'm sorry the so a top 20 lineup in The Sims is the second most duped DraftKings is different from FanDuel uh especially for this particular slate there's a lot of good spend up options I don't think there's going to be one lineup on DraftKings that's duped way more frequently than other ones whereas on FanDuel there's going to be a couple of individual Tyreek kill MVP or Josh Allen MVP lineup that are going to have like hundreds and hundreds of duplications I don't think there's going to be that many lineups that are duped in the same way over on DraftKings boss BR said no way that's dup the most no Josh Allen no Josh Allen's in that Wilson Wadd Allen Coleman Tua and Hill he's in that I think he's talking about the FanDuel lineup oh the FanDuel lineup oh okay what is it Jordan you want to read that off to us is your mic on go is your mic going to everybody now it is yeah Tyreek Hill the captain uh Jeff Wilson Tua Jaylen wle and James Cook 80 times duped this him okay let me check how how difficult is it if I just handbuilt a lineup because this this will be telling if I hand buil a lineup on FanDuel how easy is it to get Tyreek Hill and Josh Allen into that lineup because if it's not that easy to fit them both together then the most dup lineup probably won't have both of them just because of the fact that people are going to have to decide to roster one or the other but it's going to depend how easy it is to hand build the lineup that is both all right so if you go Allen and Tyreek Hill you got 8,800 left yeah I don't think the most duped lineup is going to have both of them in it really okay just because of salary constraints they're both so much more expensive than everybody else they really are so with that in mind then you okay so then do you think that Tyreek Hill and Allen lineups are still going to be duped a lot not lineup so lineups with both of them in it's it's just hard to build lineups in that kind of way um there's going to be like a couple of them that are going to be popular because the only viable ones that make sense but it's going to be more so a lineup That is Tyreek Hill and doesn't have Josh Allen or a lineup That is Josh Allen and doesn't have Tyreek kill and uses all the salary you could guarantee it's gonna be duped by a lot of people on FanDuel yeah right all right let me just export these lineups real quick export while you're looking at that I'll check see if we had any other questions that came in Malcolm revamp is asking is Tyreek Hill a contrarian play uh no he is the most popular play on the entire slate so the opposite of contrarian he is not going to be contrarian at all the only the only contrarian angle with Tyreek Hill is to not play him in a lineup and then a plan B smoothies he also left a Super Chat he uh said sorry ly forgot to say happy birthday look the man's dedicated to his craft he comes back all the time with that what do you thinking okay here's a here's a fun one for you ready Greg in on DraftKings because fanduel's just so much different in non Tyreek Hill lineups right non Tyreek Hill lineups what do you think the move is for people looking to to fade Tyreek today for FanDuel or draft honestly the answer the answer is the answer is Wadd or Anan or both and that's goingon to be the answer both FanDuel and DraftKings FanDuel I lean more towards uh Anan DraftKings it would be also aan except I would I would also be open to Waddle I'm not as high on Wadd in the multiplier spot on fandel where it's only a half Point PPR bonus uh but yeah either waddle or hn those are your go-to guys in a lineup that doesn't have Tire to kill well you said something interesting there you said or both I mean I think both makes the most sense really because Tyreek Hill is just Tyreek Hill is just such a massive producer you know I guess it doesn't have to be both cuz what if Hill has you know 18 or something and still kind of you know scores and has six for six for 60 and a touchdown or something like that then you might not need you might not need to have both but not having Hill and having both of those guys is definitely viable without question the one thing I don't see happening for today is just a lows scoring game though so so obviously you know it's football anything could Happ but like realistically how I'm building my lineups I don't foresee a lowc scoring game so one thing I'm doing when I'm building my lineups in in light of the question of what are we doing in non- Tyre kill lineups it's still paying up for other skill position players it's not like all of a sudden like hey let's focus on kickers and defenses let's see what this Line's closing at pull up the live odd screen on odd Shopper by the way that's free if you're not using I use that every single day uh just go in find every line for every game for every prop for every team prop game prop future whatever so you're not making the mistake of betting a bad line it's going to go a very long way for you I promise you that much all right so few of these lines have moved a little bit towards the bills little bit still two and a half just less juice on the Dolphins and the total is back up to 49 and a half in some spots 40 48 and a half 49 kind of you know a little bit all over the place 48 and a half on Pinnacle 49 on Circa so I mean still if you were to throw this on the main slate though Greg it would be the second highest total of any game of the week yeah not surprising I wonder if the NFL was trying to make a point by trying to make good Thursday night football games to open up the season because uh certainly the public narrative for good reason the last few years has been how dog [ __ ] the Thursday night football product could be at times but great game last week on Thursday night and this one should also be really good I haven't looked ahead to see what the other games are but hopefully we get good Prime Time games yeah well we have okay so Sunday night is Tex's Bears that's interesting and then Monday night is Eagles Falcons okay I'm interested in all of those I haven't I haven't looked at uh I haven't looked at Thursday nights coming up but um any other questions that we got before we go Plan B smoothie speaking of tight ends Jesus Christ dude how do you feel about L's birthday I think it's gonna be a good birthday bash or should I make an excuse not to go it's eight o'clock I'm doing a show man what would I be doing uh let's see cat is a legend Tyreek fails every time he plays the B well we talked about that it's been a TR it's been a struggle but it's still it's still Tyreek Hill thoughts on what's more owned on FanDuel from soex Hill captain or Allen Captain what do you think probably Allen Captain yeah they're both they're going to be they're going to combine for like 65 to 75% ownership on FanDuel they're going to account for the majority of the uh MVP ownership there anybody else is going to be really contrar in that spot it's it's going to be close between the two of them I think it's going to be Allen on FanDuel Tyreek on draftking just because of the scoring difference but I I can't tell you I'd be stunned if Tyreek does end up being a little bit more popular than Josh Allen last question if a player is optimal and it is not Tyreek Hill and it is not Josh Allen who is it I mean you're I bet you're going aan here but I'm I'm not asking you from a projections standpoint a to just you who do you think if it's not Josh Allen or Tyreek Hill yeah I mean Anan would be most likely to me uh I mean you could also make a case where all right so what happens if all of these guys have big games hn has a big game Allen has a big game Tyreek Hill is a big game Tua Wadd if it's just like a super high-scoring shoot out where it's like a 30 to 35 game or something like that then it's just going to be whoever the cheapest player is that scores the most fantasy points and then you get a dumb slate where it might be like a kicker situation like we had the other day where Jake Moody scores a gazillion fantasy points um but yeah if it was somebody off the board then I think Jeff Wilson's the most likely answer okay sorry I forgot I still play season long fantasy football and had Raheem moard in one of these lineups so that's why I stopped playing season long fantasy football because I would never remember to set my lineups anymore oh it's very annoying man all right he's out I I I don't I mean look it's 8:14 and I'm just remembering now so appreciate you guys watching yo come hit us up in Discord when you sign up all the links are down there in the description when you sign up hit us up in Discord say what's up ask questions say hello join the community use the tools win money hit us up at stochastic Hof when you're rocking that Avatar remember stochastic docomo get one of those beautiful avatars just finish top three in a field of 5,000 or more sounds tough but guess what people do it all the time Jordan and I are making a video tomorrow we have like a hundred of them that we're gonna have to go over just rock the Avatar it could be a five cent entry or $500 it doesn't matter get a ton of prizes up to a thousand bucks in Tools in subscriptions in custom stochastic Hall of Fame Rings all of that good stuff so if you're not doing it yet that's the place to be anyway hit Greg up at G Arenberg DFS me at Lafia Ford on Twitter and we'll see you back here for the next one peace