NFL Week 1 Picks: "Pizza for breakfast!" | Chris Simms Unbuttoned (FULL Ep. 634) | NFL on NBC

Mikes gloats about last season, and waxes poetic about pizza. [Music] I too am going to go with the Chiefs to baby I'm telling Kyle do you accuse me of that all the time with the Vikings I be crying at the 49ers I'm a Cryer anyways that's who I am that was the last time we did a p podcast the last time we'll be allowed in that sports book you were drunk off your ass that night and high yes right let's let's be serious happy Chris showed up right we did The Joint Mega pix podcast in the sports crd don't they want people to be drunk and high to be careless with the money and do that what they want you're not supposed to talk about it but yeah that's the idea get them drunk get them high and then the money flies I thought that was a great podcast look and even with all that I picked the right winner even though you know my heart was with the Niners my brain said go with the football pi and I did that because Patrick Mahomes at the end of the day we did the same thing the year before the Eagles are the better team but the other team has Patrick Mahomes and that's where we go and look apparently we did something right because this is the pfpm Chris Sims unbuttoned pix podcast delivered by Little Caesars the official Pizza sponsor of the NFL and I have a great Little Caesar's story 1991 yeah I was in the process of moving to Pittsburgh starting my law practice my parents still lived in my hometown a Little Caesar's opened like right up the hill from where where we live yeah and I came home one time and my mom had this box of Little Caesars and I i' like this pretty damn good wow so like every time an Italian mom going down the street I know sacriligious but you make exceptions when it's really good and every time I'd come home after that they she'd have a box of the Little Caesar's pizza and I I'll never forget them for growing up with pizza pizza right that whole thing like there's some commercials and things right that you just they'll never change the jingle in my head and every time I see the uh every time I see Little Caesar's Pizza I still think of that but great to have them along you know and then you're you're a pizza eater on a pretty regular basis so find a Little Caesars in your area and start contributing come on one of the things I learned right this summer was that in all of my major arteries there is zero calcification zero wow so I told my doctor that means I'm having pizza for lunch pizza for dinner pizza for breakfast what the hell the pipes are clean it's coming down the pipe that the pipes are clean baby see see pipes are clean there you go you're good way to go I that's impressive I don't know if that's good for somebody that's got Crohn's disease issues and all that you bread and cheese and all that I don't have but I don't I don't have so my wife's always like you should probably pay attention to what you eat when you have like one of your little episodes don't it doesn't happen very often it's not going to keep me from enjoying Pizza a good pizza all right all right good all right well I hope Cesar get little CES don't let you enjoy your we need to have some not right now it's early in the morning I in morning I can E I can eat pizza at any well that's how we know you're Italian of the day okay uh last year for those of you who either don't give a or forget or both I won we got to do I mean that's an updated head shot but that was like an on the Fly we got to do something better look you got the nice airbrush cleaned up I got something that was shot on somebody's phone being get rid of that just put up the P logo horrible looks like it was pain they kept evil Roger Goodell on there for three years I told the CH SC look like they brought in Da Vinci they brought Da Vinci back from the dead and painted yours this looks da vinish to me right now I don't know what you're talking about all right anyway I won straight up I won Best Bets you won barely against the spread gosh oh hey I love that barely you won barely Best Bets by one freaking game all right you jerk right so I was better on Best Bets by one game yeah I think two years in a row You' beat me straight up not very good on Best Bets I mean we should at least be above 500 if these are the games we feel the strongest about we should be better than 500 well I I don't always love that we got to pick three right there's certain weeks where I always talk about this to you I go I don't want to pick three Best Bets I like one I want one of them but we do three and that sometimes can lead to a game or two of like you're not sure but we got to pick three and let's do it that way but here we go and I'm I'm pumped to do this I love doing this I love this little competition we got during the year all right well CU you take it personal we are all I don't take it personal I just hate doing it yeah yeah right well you take it personal I will come to you on a Sunday at 4:45 and you'll be like you won the two games at one that at 1:00 that we disagreed on but we got 2 on 4:00 you're keeping tally you can say all you want I know you we started down the rabbit hole earlier about know contractual limitations and you're only on PFT live one day a week I don't think I'm required to do this I really don't and and there was a time not that long ago when I was a little irritated about the fact that I lost you for two days I meant to look at my contract to see if I really am because I don't think I'm required to do this I don't think I'm required to do if you want to quit halfway through here go ahead that's fine all right okay uh every week this season you can play along with us DraftKings once again has set up the free $11,000 Florio and Sims pick them pull pick every game against the spread for a chance at a $1,000 prize pull every single week download the DraftKings app click on the pools Tab and enter the Florio and Sims free $1,000 pick them pool to make your picks and just like we do you have to enter all of your picks before kickoff of the first game of the week on Thursday night and this really isn't Thursday Night Football it's a special edition of Sunday Night Football I believe I believe Thursday night football starts next week kick off even though it's Thursday whatever it is it's not Thursday night football but it is KICKOFF: Ravens at Chiefs Thursday so here we go Ravens at the Chiefs we've talked a lot about the game throughout the course of the week at least I have you and I did today I had the other days with other hosts but that's a different story and I'm not bitter the Chiefs are 3o favorites the over under is 47 who do you have well um interesting matchup of course right you think about the the psychology of the game and you do think wait hey Ravens are going to be mad they're going to be chomping at the bit they lost the AFC championship game at home they should have this circled on the calendar right you know from as soon as the schedule came out they can get their payback uh so so I understand that psychology but I think it's a different Psychology from a team that's won the Super Bowl than years past we talked about this on your on the show earlier today where this is a team and the Chiefs that is highly motivated by being great they are highly motivated about staying on top of the mountain they are highly motivated about the three Pat and their chance at history there and I think that's real and I think are motivated in the fact that they know they didn't play great football for the majority of last year and they can be a lot better team so you know that's where you would think the Ravens have the psychological advantage but I don't think they really do in this one because the Chiefs are special that way all right the Ravens offense the Ravens in general I worry about them and I've told you this I I'm going to error on all teams that played in the preseason teams that played in the preseason if it goes like o I'm on the fence I'm going to pick the team that played in the preseason the Ravens didn't really play much of their players they got three new offensive lineman playing for them now their offensive line played a little in the preseason which is a good thing but still this is going to be their first time in live action first team offense Lamar Jackson out there the Steve spagnolo defense and yes with the Chiefs having not only being the Chiefs but having played two preseason games Reinventing themselves on the offense right a new defensive coordinator for the Baltimore R Ravens I'm leaning Chiefs here I'm going to go Chiefs 2720 do you do do we are we already going to start this where we have the same score for like 10 games every week Chiefs 2720 that's mine as well I just I'm influenced by the fact that they blew this game last year yeah at home against the L another thing that adds to their yeah psyche and look the Ravens with the one seed last year but look at what happened in their division the Steelers offense was complete in total crap and they still made it to the playoffs the Browns didn't have Deshawn Watson for most of the year they've got a really good team but they didn't have their best quarterback available the didn't have Joe burrow for a big chunk of the season so that number one seat has a little tiny asterisk next to it right Todd monin I remember saying last year what they didn't bring back Bill Walsh to run the offense I mean what's Todd monin frankly ever done before last year last year was okay but when they needed him most what happened didn't nearly run the ball enough they might overdo it with the run tonight to over correct yeah over we're going to run we're going to run we're going to slow the game down we're going to keep Patrick Mahomes on the sideline drinking Gatorade as you like to say we're going to shorten the game we're going to have fewer possessions and we're going to try to outscore them that way and you know maybe it'll be lower scoring than 2720 we're both right on the 47 but that that I don't care about over under I care about not being right on the spread and we're both over the spread by Four Points Chiefs are favor by three we have them winning by seven yeah I I mean I I you know again I I realize the game could be close I get that I do think what plays into the chief's favor a little bit is hey new defensive coordinator on the Ravens the Ravens don't have a great pass Rush when they just have to send four right I do think they'll have to maybe Blitz a little bit you're not going to really trick momes with the Blitz and I do think the Chiefs passing offense is going to be more aggressive throwing the ball down the field uh so those are the reasons yeah I BRAZIL FRIDAY NIGHT: Packers vs Eagles I I definitely favor the Chiefs in this one Friday night in South Pao Brazil X is banned the Eagles and the Packers will be there we both like the Packers to make it to the Super Bowl so I assume we both like the Packers to make it a one and0 well hey I I I do I do I'm I'm going with the Packers here as well I think two the most talented teams in the in the game on on both sides of the ball right so I don't look at this at all and go o even though I probably say the Eagles roster is better I think the Packers roster is a top five roster in football too so it's not like oh they're outclassed to such a capacity here that I'm worried about them but a little bit with the Eagles too is there's just a few more moving Parts new DC new OC right the bad taste of you get last year out of your mouth and all that you know the Packers I think yeah okay they lost the division playoff game to the 49ers but there was more to be positive about and feeling good and puffing your chest out I do think Jordan love will certainly be more comfortable early in the year than he was last year Josh Jacobs adding him to the Run game right I think is going to be scary and I do think with this Packers defense right uh they they have the horses up front to not be overpowered by The Eagles offensive line they got corners on the edge to do that they got a lot of depth on the front seven so I like how they match up there A lot of times I go oo this team can't play with the Eagles they're going to steamroll them it's going to compromise them have to do things they don't want to do on defense I don't see that and I'm going to say the Eagles you know have a little rust on them getting used to the new Big fangio defense and Kell Moore offense I almost didn't pick the Eagles to make the playoffs but for the fact that they're in the NFC was like well if they don't win it who will yeah right I I might have if they were in a different division I might have left them out I'm concerned that whatever went wrong last year hasn't been fixed until I see that it has been I'm going to be concerned it hasn't been yes there's two new coordinators but the head coach is the same and the head coach was ultimately responsible for whatever that mess was last year after they go 10 and one they collapse down the stretch they get embarrassed by the Buccaneers in the playoffs so I know a lot of people are just going to say well and hey you you say it all the time they have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL right it doesn't matter when it's time to play the games if you're going to find a way to Short Circuit Jordan love is on the cusp of superstardom I know he's gotten the huge contract now and maybe maybe teams will catch up to I don't know I mean he got better as the season went on last year so once there was film out there about Jordan love he came up with a way to defy it and transcend it and have a great finish to the season I think he's going to be great adding Josh Jacobs as you mentioned that's not something that the Packers traditionally do it's usually the defensive side when they go out and spend money on a veteran they spent the money on Josh Jacobs upgrades the running game the passing game they've got a collection yeah they don't have a number one guy that's positive because you're not forced to focus on one guy I I think they are going to be really good this year and they're going to start it off I got 3431 I I'm just kind of rooting for a high-scoring game in Brazil and I hope the people in Brazil realize what they're getting of all the turds we've sent to London sorry London over the past 17 years crap games losing teams they're getting a great game out of the gates that could be I've got a playoff rematch the Packers and Eagles and like the divisional round but they could cross paths in the NFC Championship 100% I I think they're qual these two teams are that type of quality definitely I'm going Packers 2420 I don't think it'll be quite as high scoring um but you never know in these these first games of the year you don't know and uh I'm I'm excited for it nonetheless being in Brazil and us getting to do the pregame on Friday night and all that it's going to be awesome from Brazil are we going to Brazil do I know am I getting on this plane tonight and it's going to take us I wish they would I would love to see you get onp I have a problem damn you're you don't have a passport I don't we've talked about this before I haven't needed one I Haven I haven't needed one I don't need to leave the country this is the Great country on Earth there's no reason to leave it although I do want to go to Italy okay Steelers at Falcons EARLY SUNDAY: Steelers at Falcons 1:00 Eastern on Sunday I'm surprised the Falcons are favored by three and a half points because the Steelers are still the Steelers and until the Falcons show that they figured out you got a new coach new quarterback weird quarterback Vibe with Michael penck Jr drafted eighth overall after they paid all that money to Kirk Cousins they've got great skill position players they made some late additions to the defense with Matthew judon via trade Simmons who was available in free agency but you know the Steelers think they can resurrect Russell Wilson the betters don't believe at least not for week one well I think Atlanta is a better football team uh they're roster I do but not by so much that I don't think other factors play into this here what one right I I like the fact that the Steelers are bringing Arthur Smith down there right you don't think there's going to be a little motivation from the Steelers and some of the offensive players and Arthur Smith you know a little extra game plan in maybe a trick up their sleeve whatever I think that's a very real thing there the Rivalry between Raheem Morris and Mike Tomlin they're best friends like best buddies okay I was in Tampa with them it was if Mike tomman was in this room so was Raheem Morris that I mean they're buddies they hang together in the off season so there's a little bit of a rivalry there okay that there's that aspect and yeah I'm giving the advantage to the guy that's been there and done that a lot more in Mike Tomlin when it comes to that rivalry as we sit right now even though I think rahee Boris is going to be damn good with the Falcons but I'm going to go back to something I said already you kind of talked about it it's the Steelers right the Steelers the one thing I'm not worried about is they're going to be ready to hit tackle and play football on Sunday afternoon right the Atlanta Falcons I am a little worried about that when you have also a quarterback that hasn't done Jack Diddy either and he's coming off on a kiles injury and he couldn't run that well anyways and now it's TJ watad Blitz zones and everything crazy going on around you there so in totality I might feel like the Falcons are a better football team but for as week one as it stands there and then the fact that the Steelers did play their guys in the preseason a considerable amount on both sides of the ball I think they're going to be ready for live bullets and I think the Falcons are going to be a little bit like oh wait and you know they might get going in the third quarter but it's going to be too too little too too late I'm going to take the Steelers with the upset here 217 I got 2317 so we almost almost had the exact same score but I don't even feel like it's enough upset like if I were a gambler this is the kind of game that I would say I'll take the three and a half and you may get an idea that that might be one of my Best Bets as we go later because it just feels like the Steelers will win this game and I won't be surprised if it ends up being maybe even more than a six you think about like what what what would we look at as like the great things Atlanta can do right they're okay um Raheem Morris in his defense is pretty creative all right hey Pitts ber Russell Wilson Arthur Smith like I don't think anything's going to catch them off guard and they're pretty like hey this is what we do and we do it well and we're going to be like that you know the other part is hey the Falcons o line yeah it's real damn good but this is a damn good front seven for the the Pittsburgh Steelers and I certainly don't think in a week one where their front seven has played football and Atlanta's offensive line hasn't played again I'm going Advantage Steelers you can tell it if a team played in the preseason I'm giving them a little Edge in this week one matchup Cardinals at Bills for sure that's just a ton of pressure on Kirk a ton of pressure all right Cardinals at the bills to start the season 6 and a half Point favorites the bills are at home 48 is the over under who do you like in this one well listen I'm not high on the I'm high on life but I'm not high on the bills okay I'm not on that right now you saying the words I'm not high that's not a sentence that comes out of your very not not not exactly right right so uh I look at this and go the bills I have the same worries I always do right and I know last year I didn't pick the bills to go to the playoffs and you know even Jason Garrett was getting on me and I was going damn but we're going to the last two weeks last year bills were bar in the playoffs I mean so let's let's not and there was a chance if they lost if I remember right the last game of the year they could end up not being even in that if the Dolphins if something shook out right on that sun last but for that sea mcder hit piece from Tyler Dunn's website goong td.com they were teering right they were done yes that that was the fuel that turned them around right so I I don't what did the Bills do that makes me think their team is remarkably better there's really nothing on the defensive side of the ball that makes you think that they got new safeties there's still questions at the corner position your best defensive player Matt Milano is not playing right Von Miller got no idea what he's going to be I respect the bills I just don't think there's enough really good awesome difference making players on both sides of the ball o Line's better they're tougher Joe Brady's brought that I get it it's still to me going to be too much Josh Allen this is going to be one of my big upsets of the week I'm going to take the Cardinals on the road here to upset the Buffalo Bills I think the Cardinals are kind of laying in the weeds I like the way they play offensive defensive football I think Kyler Murray fully unveiled in this offense full off season Marvin Harrison Jr everything they got right and then Ganon his defense against what I don't look at is to be an overly complicated system with the Buffalo Bills that's where I kind to see this I'm going to take an upset here go 2423 Cardinals on the road wow that is gutsy I've got the bills winning this one and I just think that they understand the value of getting out of the gates hot yeah yeah and if they lose this one I usually say week one throw it out it doesn't matter unless you lose at home to a division rival I'll add a little asterisk to that if you lose at home to a lesser team regardless of where they come from right that's when you start thinking about panic button even though you got 16 games left I think the bills handle this one I think Josh Allen is ready to take that team to the next level I think not having Stefan Diggs there it's good for him it's good for them they should have done this a year ago I think that created issues that kept the team down and created to the the the funk that they dealt with until after the weird Monday night loss to Denver when they had too many guys on the field for the field goal attempt so I got the bills 30 to 17 you've given me something to think about though but I'll still take the bills 30 is kind of laying in the weeds oh they are and they like that kind like the Buccaneers ex right and and again I they exceeded expectations last year I really like the offens and defensive schemes on the Arizona Cardinals and of course I I still think Kyler Murray is a damn good football player so yeah I'm I'm I'm going that was one of those ones that popped up to me as I thought about it the last 10 days a little bit and I can see an upset here this is a pick that you're making to will your narrative to come to life about the bills that's your being influenced by your belief that the bills aren't a playoff team well I maybe a little bit and I I I will say like I was thinking about this even before I did my playoff predictions and all that I was going this is the one I can look at to go hey if there's some upsets on Sunday I think this is one I'm going to ride with it Titans at the Bears the debut of Caleb Williams going against Titans at Bears will Levis Mr mayones they are playing at Soldier Field the Bears are favored by four with an over under of 44.5 what happens for Caleb Williams in his first NFL game hey I I'm I don't know but one thing is I don't think he's going to be nervous or scared or anything like that you know I told you I love the preseason play the first game was really good Splash plays wow second game wasn't as good but had the splash plays and to me like I said at the time The Confident thing was when it was a little ugly there in that second preseason game Caleb Williams was very good with the football no dicey decisions no like oh I got to jump start us and make something crazy happen and then a turnover a sack fumble anything like that the bear as as you know first off I think I I'm picking them to go to the playoffs I think they're a playoff caliber football team the big question is just yeah the Young quarterback the young receiver in Odun right but when when I think of the Bears defense I think it's extremely talented it's really well coached I think Tennessee is going to be fun to watch this year and Levis and Calvin Ridley in company are going to make plays Levis has exceeded my expectations he's got a big time arm but yeah you know first year as the starter it's a first you know new head coach new system all of that I'm going to take the Bears at home 2417 I got 2320 so I'm it's and we need a sponsor for the needle thread it's a needle thread I've got the Titans to cover Bears to win I I think the Titans are better than people give them credit for and they will surprise the Bears and make this close the Bears are already 18 years after the fact if you want to Crown them Crown their ass it was Denny green talking about the bears in 2006 the last time they made it to the Super Bowl but people are already crowning the Bears not as a team that's going to make it to the playoffs although you have them going but as a team that's going to be they watch out for instantly better watch out for the Bears they could be really good this is going to be a little surprise for them because it's going to be a close game it's going to be hard fought I still think they win maybe a late field goal 23-20 the Bears win but the Titans remind everyone that they're not just going to lay down they're not going to disappear Bengals against the Patriots a Bengals at Patriots team that has largely disappeared from the radar screen of relevance in the NFL the Bengals are favored by eight it's the biggest spread of the week over under 41 Bengals notoriously slow starters can they beat the Patriots first and second can they beat them by more than eight points yeah the Bengals played played some of their guys this preseason I think they realize their slow start issues I think they realize hey the second week of the year is the Kansas City Chiefs game so we better be ready and not trying to still figure out how we're going to play and what we're going to do that way they're clearly the better team over the Patriots we know that I mean come on the Patriots are definitely one of the 100% we're building for the future teams out there right now there's not a bunch of them in the league but the Patriots are definitely one of them the Bengals are in the Super Bowl window Jamar Chase or not I still like their chances against the Patriots here one I just don't look at the Patriots as enough Playmakers on the offensive side of the ball a quarterback that's not a huge playmaker I think the Bengals defense is going to be on a mission for how bad they were last year right they got two veteran safeties back there now that are going to be able to get Luen AR rumo's defense all organized and the right thing and I think the Bengals are on a mission and Joe burrow is on a mission anyways I'm going 3117 Bengals so you've got them winning and covering obviously I I think that the Jamar Chase hold in yeah you don't just snap your fingers and you're ready to go and go out and be dominant you got T Higgins in a contract year you've got Joe burrow who's still on the injury report with that wrist from last year maybe it's a middle finger to those like me who thought they were hiding the wrist issue maybe there's still something there the Patriots I think will be good defensively they'll be yeah borderline competent offensively I think they can cover here it's a big spread I've got Bengals 20 to3 win by a touchdown failed to cover by a point and uh yeah I I just think that it is going to take that Bengals offense a little while to get going especially because you got a defensive head coach in New England and and some pieces left behind Texans at Colts by Bill bich here pretty good defensively I hear you there Texans Colts rematch of week 18 from last year it determined the AFC South Championship same field they're picking up where they left off Texans favored by three over under a 48 and a half who do you have yeah well different feel though altogether right because it does feel a little bit like the Colts are back at you know I don't want to say square one but a little bit into hey it's it's it's basically a rookie quarterback again you know and Anthony Richardson yeah he played last year but he didn't play enough enough to make me feel all warm and cozy that he he's just ready to go on the field and be 25 for 30 for 320 yards and three touchdowns and then hey I like the the the Colts I think they're going to be better than people realize here but again I think the Texans had one of the best offseasons in football they got one of the best rosters in football they got one of the best quarterbacks in football I think it's still like the Colts figuring going wait I know we almost made the playoffs last year but we're a little bit back into square one and figuring out how we want to play with Anthony Richardson and doing all that and I think the Texans got everything you need let alone I mean CJ strout is is in that combo for five best quarterbacks in the game if there's a guy open CJ Stout ain't going to miss it all right that that's that's what I do know I'm going to say 2821 here um 2821 Texans all right I'm taking the upset here I just think that we have to take the broader perspective into consideration Anthony Richardson's back he's on a mission to prove himself he knows who he's going against right out of the gates an Taylor no hold out this year healthy this year entering the season and the Texans are that team that there's just the question they did it last year under that cloak of anonymity now look they week two Sunday night football against the Bears can they check the boxes like they did last year can they take care of business I think they probably can but this is a division rival out of the gates it's a game that could go either way and this is one of those where when we get to Monday we we look at the scores and we look at the highlights we going be like I thought the Texans were the this is one where it can go either way and let's flip the coin and say the Colts are going to pull this one Jaguars at Dolphins off 2320 they win and clearly they cover all right Jaguars at the Dolphins Miami's favored by three and a half with an over under of 49 we both left the Dolphins out of the playoff mix and I I left the Jaguars out did you leave the Jaguars I I got the Jaguars in okay I did well do you have the Jaguars winning I do have the Jaguars winning I'm I'm going to and again this a tall order but I again that I'm going to go a little into you know I think the Jags realize what they're jumping into they got a tough early schedule this year right I think that's the first thing that I look at and and go okay second off is this is a talented football team the the Jaguars got everything right the big thing with last year is the offensive line it was beat up it was hurt they had changes they couldn't run the ball for ATN couldn't do anything in the Run game because of that and it affected their offense there was no play action Passage attack there was nothing there it was really just Trevor Lawrence trying to have to carry the team a little too much and then as we know he was banged up and did a little too much and made mistakes at times I think my big thing with the dolphins is one as we always talk about right if it's not a seven on seven flag football game and the game gets tough and gritty do I really trust them no I don't really I don't I think the Jaguars are going to be the bigger physical team on the football field the the Dolphins got new offensive lineman that worries me right and then and then um on the defensive side of the ball the the the Dolphins worry me in the fact that Jaylen Phillips and Bradley chub and that group right there they're not going to be 100% here I like this Jacksonville team I really do I think they got it all here I think this is going to be a fun one I'm going to go 3430 Jaguars wow wow I mean this is a hell of a start for the Jaguars this is a tough draw hot day now they're look they're us going to Miami to start the season I assume Miami will be wearing white and the Jaguars going to have to wear a dark uniform which is going to be a factor I Miami has traditionally come out of the gates hot I think they'll get it together whether or not that addresses their issues for them the season starts Thanksgiving when they go to Lambo field everything before that I think they'll be good enough and the Jaguars something's off there based upon how they finished last year I'm a big believer in carryover and when you struggle down the stretch and you haven't made a lot of dramatic changes you haven't necessarily fixed what your problem is you've got the owner putting pressure on saying we expect to win now and that's a message to Doug Peterson the head coach of the team I just think this is a tough spot for the Jaguars Miami wins this one in my opinion by the score of 34- 27 a lot of points fun to Panthers at Saints watch and it could go either way but I think Miami pulls it off all right Panthers at the Saints Panthers one of the worst teams in the NFL last year with two wins Saints kind of in that we don't really know who they are what they are post Shawn Payton several years after the fact they're favored by four over under a 41 and a half who do you have yeah it kind of feels like they're like still kind of holding on to the Shawn Payton team a little bit but also trying to kind of rebuild on the fly to a degree I I I'm not picking the Panthers I'm sorry I'm just I'm not a believer in Bryce young I'm not a believer in them as a football team yet not that to sit here and say that I think the Saints are some World beaters but I think they realized their offense wasn't as good as it should be last year I do expect them to be better and Derek Carr to be a little bit more comfortable in that way and the Saints their defense with Dennis Allen and an offense that I look at in Carolina where I go yeah it'll be better but I don't know if it's going to be that much better and I'd still question the quarterback's ability that yeah if the game isn't wide open is he going to be able to hang in there in tough games and make throws Under Pressure into Tight Windows and all that no I I don't necessarily think that I don't think this is a blowout by any stretch of the imagination but I'm going to pick the Saints 2117 you're right on the number you need to give somebody a point or take one away okay am I on the number oh yeah damn all right so I'll go 20 let me change that sorry my bad about that let me go I'll go 23 to 17 cuz I just own like 22 so I'm going to go 23 I got 2820 Saints I look I mean the Panthers have to prove yes that they know what they're doing exact and until they do going into a place like the super doome to face of Saints team that is good enough to beat one of the worst teams in football until the Panthers show that they're not one of the worst teams in football this is an easy one I might be wrong but it's an easy one I don't spend a lot of mental Vikings at Giants power trying to figure this out all right next Viking oh The Sims and floral B Save The Best For Last for the one o00 window Vikings are favored by two I mean and it's the big 100th season celebration they got the big ugly logo in the middle of the field they got the big ugly uniform shut up the logo looks better than the uniforms the uniforms look like I I love the Unis I think they're great well I mean come on it's the 20s and 30s that's what colored the pants were the state the helmet's cool are we wearing those this week I don't think we're wearing them this week right the G are wearing this week I'm excited to see them I can't wait to see we are we wearing them this week that's right we wearing them this week yep that's right the gmen baby uh who do you got well you go first there Minnesota Vikings guy well I look I don't think the Vikings are going to win many games this year but I think this is one that they can win no sequan Barkley Daniel Jones feeling the ambivalence that the team has right y Malik neighbors could be great but I don't Envision like two touchdowns and 150 yards out of gates I don't think Brian Flores is going to DARE him to do that I think back to when Randy Moss got started and Tony dunie then with the Buccaneers was like we got to let him prove that he's worthy of double coverage and he torched him that day I think the Vikings will be on guard for Malik neighbors because as you and I both heard and Vikings were trying to get Malik neighbors they know what Malik neighbors is they'll try to neutralize him as best they can I think the Vikings pull this off 2623 Sam darnold back at mattlife Stadium his best chance to to turn his career around with an offensive line that's confident with Justin Jefferson Jordan Addison with Aaron Jones who's healthy and when he's healthy we know he's very good I don't know how long he's going to be healthy the defense is good enough I think the Vikings can pull this one off the these are two of the teams that are going to be at or near the bottom when it's all said and done I think but one of them's got a win week one and I think it's the Vikings well I I got more faith in your Vikings than you do I I do one I think Sam Donald's going to exceed expectations I'm I'm expecting that expectations are low well they're low but I think they'll even they'll they they're going to be they're going to be like more of wow Sam darnold is pretty damn good so maybe I'm going to say he's going to far exceed expectations that that's what I'm saying here I think the Giants are going to be better but am I going to sit here and pick them in week one against the Minnesota Vikings I don't think I can do that I just I got to see a little bit more from from the New York Giants and Daniel Jones and I want to see the new defense under Shane Bowen and what that looks like so those things worry me right I am fascinated by Flores vers day ball that's going to be fun these are two guys that kind of know each other right but I do think the Vikings had a pretty good off season I think Sam darnold is going to be damn good in this offense under Kevin oconnell okay and I just think you got to you guys got a little bit more of a talented Team Al together the Giants have have a good D line but you guys the Vikings got one of the best pass protecting o lines in football I don't think they're going to have an advantage there I'm going to go 20 to 17 Vikings wow wow I couldn't do it I wanted to I was like should I make the Giants just so we have fun so are you going to give me all day long in the viewing room if the GI it'll be one of those one now I definitely yes you get it both ways well yeah it's going to be great so if I lose I just go okay we're both losing and I can still talk up the Giants so it'll be good that way we'll take a break when we're back the late Sunday afternoon games including Jim Harbaugh's debut with the Chargers and Tom Brady if you haven't heard he makes his broadcasting debut in Cleveland more pfpm and Chris him's unbuttoned right after [Music] this draftking Sportsbook is the number one place to bet touchdowns and new customers can bet $5 and get $250 in bonus bets instantly plus get one month of NFL Plus premium download the app and use promo code PFT live when you sign up draftking sports book The Crown is yours LATE SUNDAY: Raiders at Chargers please bet responsibly Sunday late games Raiders Chargers the last time these two teams played the Raiders kicked the crap out of the Chargers got everybody fired now here's Jim Harbaugh got his coaching career started with the Raiders 20 plus years ago I got a little breakfast that want to not be breakfast anymore Raiders Chargers Harbaugh and Company favored by three lowest over under the week at 40 does Harbaugh who had a great impact on the 49ers 13 years ago does he get the Chargers to one and0 I I'm going with it yes I I I I look at it I'd expect a defensive struggle right I don't think that the the offense of the Raiders right you can hey offenseive line the running backs new the quarterbacks new all of that do I expect that to be special or hitting on all cylinders no I don't and I will say I kind of feel the same way about the Chargers one right there's not a ton of talent there's unproven Commodities a little bit at the receiver position definitely running back position's a little different this year for the Chargers right and it's Jim Harbaugh which he's not looking to light up the scoreboard like Jim Harbaugh is like one of the coaches only one of the few coaches in football that's like I'll I'll take 1916 every week I don't give a damn right I'll play that style of football I think that's this is what this will be it'll be ugly right Harbaugh is just going to instill physicality and toughness to his football team and he's not going to worry about Pizzazz so I I totally expect it to be a low-scoring football game I'm going to go 1917 Chargers I've got oh you have the cover this I got 2420 Chargers and maybe I think that's a little more high-scoring than it will be I think the Chargers will be content to run the ball they've added some running backs but they still have Justin Herbert and I think at some level Jim Harbaugh wants Broncos at Seahawks to let him go out and do Justin and Herb things for what they're paying him you got to use him at some point all right Broncos at Seahawks started the season two years ago who would have dreamed Broncos Seahawks two years later would be not Russell Wilson at quarterback for Denver but rookie bow Knicks taking on Gino Smith who's entering year three as the starter the Seahawks are favored by six with an over under of 41.5 who do you have I'm a little surprised by the Sixpoint spread I'm not going to lie and I I think the Seahawks are probably a more talented football team than the Broncos but by six points I don't know if I I think that and then the Seahawks with yeah new coaches on both sides of the football right that's to me where that's a little too rich really I think that probably at six because of one reason it's a rookie quarterback going on the road up there and I want to go I don't think this is a rookie quarterback that's going to be too affected by that let alone he's got a coach that I think will know how to manage the game a little bit and help him out early on to get used to the crowd noise and everything that goes along with it right so that's where I I don't see six points in in the future here that that's what I think my biggest thing is now I am excited for Mike McDonald right that defense should be better they do got some dudes Byron Murphy should help them out uh do they have enough true pass rushers on the edge I mean we can question all of that stuff I'm going to go with the Seahawks but this is one where I'm not going to lie I thought about the upset here I do and I'm definitely not going by six points I'm going to go 2320 SE uh Seahawks at home just barely pulling this one off I think Shawn Payne's going to try his damned as to make a statement here in week one of his second year I I got 2724 and it would be a great opportunity for the Broncos to kind of surpris ifone and set the tone with B Knicks as a rookie showing everyone that pton got it right kind of laid in the weeds and waited for the picks to shake out the way they did but it's too much to ask for week one it is going to be loud it is going to be different and I think the Seahawks will have enough left over from last year you bring in the new coach it's a little kick in the pants I think we're going to see more running from them I think they win the game Cowboys at Browns 27-24 all right Cowboys at the Browns the Browns favored by two and a half points in Cleveland with an over under a 41 to start the season I want to go first because I don't want to be accused of copying your pick because I'm changing mine okay I was going to go with the Browns and I don't want to let my narratives and potential takes and biases affect the analysis of this game I think the Cowboys have completely screwed up their team this off seon they have waited too long to pay CD lamb they've waited too long to pay Dak Prescott something they haven't done yet Michael Parsons should have a new contract they should have had other players they should be back but but I don't believe that Deshawn Watson is going to be the guy he was four years ago until he does it and you know he can be mad and he can be be salty and he can be pissy about it but the reality is it's on him he's the reason why he hasn't been the guy that he was for four years until he is I can't in a game like this I can't say Browns show up and win I think it's a tough spot for them it's a big game it's a big spot the Cowboys relish that I think the Cowboys win I'm going to go Dallas 2824 over Cleveland I this is a game that I probably have been more on the I have two games that I felt like I was really on the one of them's coming up and it's our Monday night game so just in full transpar transparency this is one well you were you were going to give us a transy transparency Theory but I I I I've got one your point about Deshawn Watson is definitely the number one thing that scares me 100% worries me a little bit and then it's hey Dak Prescott I don't feel that way and Dak Prescott I feel like oh hey I know Cleveland does a lot of blitzes and everything like that and yes okay so but but he's not going to be fooled by it and again CD lamb and Brandon Cooks are not bad as much as Cleveland plays manto man they should have a few opportunities I don't know what it is though but between the CD lamb stuff the Dak Prescott stuff the fact that the Cowboys didn't play anybody really and all that it's on the road in Cleveland I think it's a special defense in Cleveland yes right I also even though I'm very worried about Deshawn Watson I think their offensive line is still good enough for them to run the ball effectively on a Dallas defense that we know has trouble stopping the run and here they are signing D tackles late in training camp again why cuz they're worried about their ability to stop the run I'm going to go Cleveland and an ugly one all right I'm I'm going to take them here uh I'm going to take them 20 to 17 I think there's going to be a lot of Defense turnovers ugly play you know and uh they squeeze it out just in the end I'm surprised I'm surprised not that I changed my mind because I thought you were picking the Cowboys but I'm surprised cuz if one goes either way I just think that early in the season enough for the Cowboys but at some point the wheels come off commanders Buccaneers 3 and 1/2 Point favorite is Commanders at Buccaneers Tampa Bay over under a 43 and A2 who do you have well I I like the Bucks here you you say it all the time the Bucks are flying under the radar they're talented they got a very good offensive line I think that's the first thing I look at I know Washington still got those the the two Bamba boys in the middle and they're going to be something to deal with but uh it's the Dan Quinn defense how does that look uh all those things but I I think again with this offensive line in Tampa Bay I don't care about Dan Quinn's defense and some of the guys he brought over from Dallas I think they're going to be able to protect Baker Midfield to throw the ball down the field I don't think the commanders are all that good in the secondary right I don't think the commanders are all that good on the offensive line either I think it'll have to be a little too much Jaden Daniels and because of that I don't like that either Todd BS his defense rookie quarterback having the deal with that so yes I'm I'm riding with Tampa Bay here I'm going to go 2721 bucks I got 2719 I just picked 19 cuz I'm sick 27207 sometimes I do that D sometimes I have 17 and 20 and so many teams that are losing I'm like okay I got to change it up and I just write a rando in there there there's a pick behind the curtain we just pull these numbers what a shock out of our asses or thin air or both all right I've got the Bucks 2719 we both believe in them and I really believe in them this year as you know I have them making it to the NFC Championship let's take a break when we return Prime Time games including Matthew Stafford back into Detroit and Aaron roders back in the Bay Area more pfpm and Chris Sims unbuttoned right after [Music] this oh yeah that's right draftking Sportsbook is the number one place to bet touchdowns and new customers can bet $5 and get $250 and bonus bets instantly plus get one month of NFL Plus premium man I like that that's a good deal download the app and use promo code unbutton when you signed up draftking sports book The Crown is yours all right all right you SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Rams at Lions you Sunday Night Football what you doing rematch super Wild Card round y Rams and lions close game close game very close first postseason win for the lions in Forever three and a half Point favorite is Detroit over under a 50.5 that's the highest of the week does Matthew Stafford they booed his family last time he's apparently not happy about that yeah well I get that I get that you can boo him but when you start to boo the family I'm sure he did take that a little personal but I also say like don't bring your family on the field either in that situation like you're just setting it up for disaster okay I I do think hey I I don't like that the Rams don't play their players in the preseason but neither do the Lions so that ends that right I do think the Rams are one of those teams with McVey and Stafford they're like we got something for them this time around but but it's still the Lions it's at home it's Super Bowl aspirations that place is going to be crazy there's no Aaron Donald it's a new defensive coordinator and Chris schula and Raheem Morris is not there anymore this is one of the best if not the best o line in football so I that's what I worry about that's where it really starts I just don't know if the Rams have enough dudes up front in their front seven to slow down the lions from running that them will to then allow them to open up the passing game game and do that and I think this is going to be a big year for Jameson Williams on the Detroit offensive uh offensive side of the ball and I think Detroit's defense is going to be better than last year so I like Detroit in fact I like Detroit more comfortably in this one than I did in the playoff game last year I'm going to take the Lions 30 to 20 at home I got 30 to 24 and it may come down to like an overtime touchdown who knows we can only hope we get an overtime game week one Sunday Night Football Li the Lions up early the next day a show the Lions uh have high expectations they've never been this High the Rams I just worry about injuries they had guys banged up in the preseason and like you said change out defensive coordinator is there going to be continuity is the defense going to be Aaron Donald's gone right I I mean it's there's big differences in this Rams team so I like the lions in that one all right let's pivot to the one that you've been MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Jets at 49ers struggling with your San Francisco 49ers versus your quarterback Aaron roders back 52 weeks to the day after he uh had the Achilles tear four snaps into the season the 49ers are favored by 4 and a half they've had all that turmoil with Brandon auk hold in Trent Williams hold out that's all resolved now 43 and a half over under do the 49ers get to one and0 the 49ers are at home do I think the 49ers are better yes right but not like so much more I mean in fact I mean I'm not sure by the end of the year we might not be going hey the Jets are are better or whatever I mean it's that close the Jets roster is loaded throughout now it is going to be about the injuries and health offensive line the older guys there Rogers can they stay healthy the defense you got no questions about you said it right the 49ers I got questions I I do you know I mean yes Tren William they're having their first practice yesterday on a Wednesday the first time the whole year with their first team offense and you're getting ready to play one of the best defenses in football let alone not only one of the best defenses in football Robert Salah in a your fired year like like you're fired if you don't go to the playoffs they're desperate anybody you talk to with the Jets there is a fire under Robert Salah and the Jets organization this is their chance to make the Splash and Go we're here everybody get ready and Salah of course used to coach for the 49ers and do all that so there's so much there having said that I still think I'm going to take the 49ers but the four and a half points is too much for me there that that's where I just can't get behind I don't think the 49ers will be at their best but because of the culture they have and who they are as team and being at home and the fact that Rogers hasn't played and done any of that I'm going to take San Francisco in a close football game 21 17 ners I got 20 to 17 and I believe everything you believe about it for Robert Sol the pressure is on for Aaron Rogers the pressure is on Aaron Rogers has historically struggled more often than not with the 49ers yes I think they will keep it close though and I think it will be very exciting think about last year they lost Rogers and still somehow won the game this year they'll have Rogers But ultimately lose but they should feel good about it as they go into this stretch of three games between the 9th and the 19th and they have the Titans on the road next week the goal is going to be don't get discouraged if you lose this one if it's close feel good about it and use that as fuel to get to two and one by two3 days from today right that's the key because I think they can be good and that's going to be the challenge for Salah find the silver lining in a close loss and I think as you do you that that's what's going to happen the Jets will play well yeah but come up just a little short as anybody would week one Monday night in San Francisco that's right we take a break when we return Our Best Bets plus our patent pending falson Prison Blues pick of the week next pfpm Chris Sims [Music] Best Bets & Folsom Prison Blues unbun welcome back to the pfpm Chris Sims unbutton picks podcast delivered by Little Caesars the official Pizza sponsor of the NFL Pizza Pizza I knew you were going to say it at some point I was giving you space to do it four disagreements straight up straight up your ass seven disagreements against the spread Best Bets time we each do three what do you have uh I'm going tonight I'm going I feel strongly about it I ha when you do dud yeah we're back yeah eat it okay I'm going tonight I like it I love getting out on that one zero lead on you so the pressure's on early I'm going with the Chiefs for all the reasons you heard I just believe in them I think they're going to be ready I know what there's coming what's coming to town they played in the preseason I think they're a team on the mission I got to see the Ravens and the Derk Henry and the new o line with the new D coordinator first before I'm going to take them over the Chiefs in this when I give Lamar Jackson his bouquet tonight I'm going to say hey Lamar you need to know that not only does Chris Sims not believe in you he made you failing by three or more points one of his Best Bets of the week I'm going to go to Sunday Pittsburgh Falcons anytime I look at this and say the best better team for this game is getting points that's a Best Bet give me the Steelers right I mean our only question is really what Russell Wilson in the past game which is is legitimate I get it but I'm joining you in that one I'm going too for my second best bet I'm taking I'm taking the Steelers as well it just pops off to me the Steelers I do think will be ready for this game and the Falcons yeah with all the things we mentioned new coach you know new offensive coordinator Kirk Cousins hasn't played all that stuff you know I think they need to get a game or two under their belt first I'll go to the Super Dome sight of where the season will end the Panthers getting four the Panthers I mean I'm sorry throw a drink on me for saying it but the Panthers come on well you're like the Saints are some Juggernaut over here but until the Panthers do jack didly I'm not going to believe so prove me wrong Dave Canales prove me wrong Bryce young prove me wrong David terer I don't believe four is too few I think the Saints at least buy a touchdown win that game oh okay all right I hope David terer throws a drink on you later on today uh or maybe I'll do it for him um let's go let's go Panthers here we go all right my my my uh my last one is I'm going the Arizona Cardinals the 6 and a half is just too much even if they don't win the game which I got them winning I think they lose a tight one I think they're going to be ready to roll here and keep things very interesting yes I don't like that six and a half of the bills your boy blue is very disappointing I know I know very disappointed I'll go uh Friday night since you're going to go Thursday night screw it I'll go Friday night with the Packers getting two against the Eagles I just feel like the eagles eagles are still in disarray and the Packers are ready to go next level and maybe beyond all right the fulson prism Blues pick that is the one pick straight up if you're dead the gutter if we're dying in the gutter not dead if you're dead it's too late if you're dying in the gutter and you got one game left to pick before you expire for good who is it this week well I'm taking the Bengals over the Patriots right that that's my game of the week there how could I I'm definitely doing that I'm going to go Saints just you're going to ride that okay I'm going to ride that damn you might be I hope you're dead in the gutter in more ways than one Panthers let's go prove me wrong Panthers see you next time see you guys be good root for me the hell with Gloria yo yo homies thanks for watching yeah it's time the NFL season is here on Chris Sims unbutton you can hit subscribe to get all the weekly picks plus our Sunday Recaps as the games are happening oh you know it nobody does that better than us thanks again for watching Remember to subscribe peace out we'll see you next time on un button