Atlanta Braves Mailbag: Has Max Fried’s Value in Free Agency Gone Down?

with the entry scare around the All-Star break and the struggles of Max freed here recently should we be considering his Market going down and his value going down this offseason fore agency could that open up the door for him to return to the Braves I'll answer that question and many more on today's mailbag episode of lock on Braves so let's get into it you you are locked on Braves your daily Atlanta Braves podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day hey and welcome back to lockon Braves part of lockdown Sports Atlanta where we cover your favorite Atlanta sports teams each and every day I'm your host Jake masterani you can follow me on social media at shortstop allall check out the podcast at locked onore Braves subscribe to us on YouTube if you are new hit that thumbs up button and leave me a comment down below is one way that you can help help the EP helped the show here help me out at locked on Braves also if you're listening on the audio version leave me a FIV star viiew on Apple Spotify wherever you get your podcast and it is a mailback episode my favorite one of the week I know yours as well you do a great job submitting questions I'm going to answer all of those today including some about Max freed about the bullpen situation who are the best arms that should be in the bullpen right now we'll discuss all of that today's episode though is brought to you by Game Time download the game time app create an account and use code locked on MLB for $20 off your first purchase well the question that I got most for today's mailback episode has to do with Max freed so certainly want to start there and discuss that because it's going to be a topic of a conversation for a while obviously as we go into the off season and he becomes a free agent it's been a conversation for years now it feels like of will the Braves keep Max freed will the Braves be able to bring Max freed back and I've always maintained the the belief that I do not think Max Reed will be back I do not think the Braves are going to give him the money that he rightfully should get that being said you look at the way last season went and the way this season is gone he he's become a bit of a an injury risk and I think you have to take that into consider consideration and I think other teams do as well now when he has been healthy for the most part he's been really really good and you even look at this season it's a 3.62 ER a 1.25 whip you know not great numbers certainly for his standards but still really good and a lot of that is ballooned by just a few bad starts it's first two starts of the Season obviously were very bad and then here recently in the month of August he has a 7.90 erra and a 1.98 whip now in between that still been really really good had a 3.23 erra in April a 2.04 erra in May and then a 2.76 ER in June so he's still a really good pitcher I don't think anybody questions that I think if there are concerns and I guess I should ask the questions first but I'm kind of already given my answer if there are concerns about Max Fred and his future I think you have to be most concerned about injury risk more so than Limited performance I don't think performance is necessarily an issue now let's get to one of these questions again there'll be a couple of these throughout well let's start with the one for for PF Danny who says two questions Jake do you think Fred's value has gone down after his last few outings and does that mean we have a better chance of resigning him and also are we back um I'm not ready to say that this Braves team is back I've said before I need to see a two- we stretch from them I need to see them win eight out of 10 where I can really say that this Braves team is back I just need to see more cons consistency from them but certainly that Series against the Giants was a step in the right direction but let's get to the other question the question that headlines this podcast has Max Freed's value gone down after these last few outings and again for me it's not necessarily these last few outings and as I talked about on the postcast last night you know we Max Reed wasn't sharp he wasn't great on Thursday there's a real scenario if Travis star know is able to hold on to that ball at home play PL Max freed pitches a scoreless outing and maybe gets through the fix sixth inning because his pitch count isn't as elevated because he doesn't have to throw those extra pitches in the second inning so again I'm not trying to say that Max freed was was great or he looked great on Thursday but you could make a very good argument that if Travis St know is able to hold on to that ball it's a scoreless outing for Max freed and maybe we're looking at things a little bit differently either way I thought that outing was a step in the right direction so I am not I am not worried about the ability of Max freed going forward may he may not be an ace over the next you know three four years or once we get two or three years down the road but just because of his ability to pitch and he's not an overpowering stuff guy I think he's going to still have the ability to be a very good pitcher and and be able to get hitters out for a long time it's kind of the same thing similar I'm not going to say it's the same thing similar to the conversation we have with Max with Freddy Freeman before his free agency you know I said then yeah maybe Freddy Freeman's not that same guy he doesn't have that same power three four years down the road but I believe Freddy Freeman's always going to be somebody that hits and we're kind of seeing that you he doesn't have 30 home run power necessarily but he's still a guy that that hits and gets on base and can get his doubles I think again in a similar conversation about Max freed again he may not be that Ace he may not be be that sa young Contender as we've seen in the past but I still think Max freed is going to be a solid starting pitcher two three years down the road so when you look at what he could get in free agency does has his value gone down I guess we'll get back to the the root question here has his value gone down I think it has and again not necessarily because of performance but because you missed so much time last year with forearm injury you have an injury at this year's Allstar break with a nerve in the forearm area again didn't really seem to be anything too too bad to be concerned about but when you're a guy that's coming off a season where you missed a lot of time because of a forearm issue and now you're missing time this year for an injury in that same area even if it's not teams are obviously going to have the medical reports and they're going to have more information on this but certainly what he had this year does not seem to be directly connected to anything longterm in the forearm but it's got to make you a little bit nervous and look if Blake snail Blake snail and S I'm still getting that messed up from that matchup the other night if Blake Snell cannot get a huge contract after winning the Sai Young because there are injury concerns with him a guy that you know hasn't he's had two complete seasons he's had two full seasons where he's made 30 plus starts he's won to Sai Young in both of those Seasons but it's the only two seasons he's thrown more than 130 innings in a year and that's looking that it might be true again this year in 2024 that he doesn't reach that 130 inning Mark and so if there are you know concerns about Blake Snell who wi healthy is one of the best pitchers in baseball and he can't get a big you know a big deal he has to settle for a one-year 32 million dollar deal with some player options then I got to think there's going to be those same concerns for Max freed and you saw pitchers last year good starting pitchers who got froze out of getting those big long-term deals just because pitchers are so volatile and teams are starting to recognize that now and they're not willing to invest so much in starting pitching knowing that you know they're one injury away from being out for two seasons and so I think in that regard again more so because of the injury side of things I do think Max Reed's value has gone down whereas I thought coming into this season if he was healthy all year looked good maybe he gets a five or six year deal maybe he gets that Carlos rhon deal but again just with the way the the game is changing a little bit and the way the perception and of pitchers is changing a little bit where we're understanding they're a little bit more volatile and they're all going to get injured at some point and teams just aren't willing to take that risk especially for guys going into their 30s I think we see him you know not be able to get that five or six year deal instead what I think might happen with Max Fred is it's a two-year deal for 20 28 30 million a year with maybe a third-year player option something similar to what Blake Snell got I don't I just don't If he if he if there is an offer out there for Max free to get a five six year deal he's gone I mean you can you can take that to the bank if there is a deal out there for Max free to get a five or six year deal even at you know 25 27 million which I think is fair based on his history and how well he's performed I think that is fair we've always talked about the Carlos rodon deal where he got six years $162 million and we've always kind of said you know that should be the market for Max freed but again with what we saw this past offseason with starting pitching I think you have to change those expectations a little bit and maybe look more at Blake Snell who took a shorter term deal at a higher aav and if that happens I think there is a world where it is more likely that the Braves could get him back if they could get him back again on a two-year deal at 28 to 30 million a year with a player option for a third year I think that is the most likely scenario that he comes back but if there is a team out there that is willing to take a chance on him and give him a a five-year deal I think he's gone I just don't think Alex anthopolos is going to commit that much money long term to a pitcher to a starting pitcher who is going into their 30s look if you weren't willing to give a six year to Freddy Freeman because you were worried about how he was going to age I don't think he's likely to give a pitcher that length of a contract either so to answer the question kind of come in Full Circle I do think this year has hurt Max Freed's free agency a little bit I think there has to be some more higher level of concern for his injury risk going forward and that could hurt the length of deal that he gets I still think he's going to get big money I still think he's going to get whatever contract it is whether it's short or long I think he's going to get an aav north of 25 million I do think that is going to happen but I think from what we've seen this year and just what we saw last offseason I do think it's going to be more of a it could be more of a shorter term deal more of a two threeyear deal rather than a five sixy year deal like I initially thought he might get if it is that shorter term deal I think there is a much higher likelihood that the Braves are able to bring him back so that answers one question I got 19 more to go but again some of those are other ones are still on Max freed we will cover those in detail as well as long as all the other questions about the bullpen The Outfield situation all that we'll get into here next you shouldn't have to worry when you buy tickets to your next big event and you don't when you use Game Time been telling you about the game time app for a while now it's the only ticketing app that I use whenever I'm going to any type of sporting events I'm getting ready to go to some college football games this fall I've been looking at some tickets there on game time as well it is super easy to use so convenient couple of features that I love 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game time today last minute tickets lowest price guaranteed thank you for making locked on Braves your first listen today if you're your second listen go enjoy locked on MLB where our friend Soley is bringing you humor along with the biggest stories going around in Major League Baseball getting you set up for the postseason which will hopefully include your Atlanta Braves you can find that on YouTube part of the lockdown podcast Network your team every day this will be our last podcast of the week had a show early Friday morning as well I talked with the Halo Bros over at lockon Angels preview in that series we discussed a lot about Ron Washington and his impact that he's had so far with the angels and also just a loss of him from the Atlanta Braves so good discussion there because I know a lot of you have some concerns about that and the loss of wash and ew and what effect that's had on this Braves team this year so make sure you go back and give that a listen if you haven't already let's jump back into our questions here Joey Milly has se several that he listed every day Joey thank you so much for listening what would your ideal lineup be once Solair comes back do laano and Kellick platoon I do think it's a platoon I think you know when when Solair is healthy you're going to see Michael Harris in Centerfield every day you're going to see Solair and right field every day and then I think it's going to be a platoon of Kellick and laurano and left field and I think that's the right move I think that's exactly what it should be Joey also says any chance they make a pin move and bring up D will how long is the lease for Luke Jackson Luke Jackson I understand bringing up the multi- inning guys but we need some gas in the pin one thing to keep in mind rosters are going to expand just by one roster spot in a couple of weeks here and so I do think daell is the next guy that is called up and I think he has a chance to be part of the pin if the Braves do make the postseason I think he's one of those guys would probably even replace a Jesse Chavez now I think the Braves are going to hang on to a Jesse Chavez for the regular season to get through that as just a veteran and kind of that Gap you know in the middle of game especially when some of your your guys are out but I think the magic of Jesse Chavez is wearing off I hate to be the one to say that but I I just I like the potential of desell Hernandez better I think he's gonna be big part of this Bullpen now and in the future um so I do I do think he he is going to be a guy we see the Braves call up sometime in December and if he performs well again and the Braves make the postseason which unfortunately I have to put that caveat out there now it's not guaranteed I think da will would be part of that I think the leash for Luke Jackson has to be very very very short um so again we'll see what happens there but I do think we see daell at some point Joey has another Bullpen question does Holmes Really go to the pin when Lopez comes back or do we go a six-man rotation also who goes down or is DFA please not Dylan Lee so we'll see what happens when Lopez comes back and what they do with Grant Holmes there's there's too much there there's too much promise there for them to you know not utilize him going forward uh I'm not sure if Grant Holmes has options so some hopefully somebody can uh put that down in the comment section if I can't figure it out here on the Fly while we're recording live but I don't want to he doesn't have any minor league options so the Braves would you know potentially lose him if they they sent him back down or had to take him off the 40 man roster which if you doesn't have any options that's that's what you would have to do so don't want to lose him Jimmy heret maybe the one that gets cut loose there again I think he Luke Jackson are probably the two most likeliest uh to be let go but I don't think it'll be don't think it'll be holes um but I do think it'll probably be either heret or Luke Jackson that gets let go I don't think they go to a six-man rotation either but I think there could be times where maybe they skip Spencer swell and boach or maybe they insert Grant Holmes for one of his starts to kind of uh you know save his Innings a little bit but I don't think going to go to a six-man rotation just based on what we've heard from Brian Snicker you know and it's it's go time and it's exactly right you need your best five guys out there every day Dustin mounts do you think the Braves should move the starters around so cell can pitch against Philly yes and I think they will I talked about this the other day or I sent out a post on it you know as things line up now if they kept everything on rotation then he would miss both of the upcoming Phillies series but they have an off day on Monday which gives you the ability to skip somebody probably Spencer swelling B and then everybody would still stay on four days rest and then you would have Chris S pitch in the finale of that first series not sure where he would line up in that second series but he would definitely be in it somewhere so I do think the Braves will choose to do that Justin says rumor going around that the Rangers might put Nathan avaldi on waiver similar to the angels last year believe he's owed 2.6 million if he gets to the Braves do they pounce do they have enough room MoneyWise so two questions here do the Braves pounce I don't think so I mean Nathan naldi is obviously you know a good pitcher was a good postseason pitcher last year I wouldn't hate it but I think the raay rotation is okay uh you know again you got a chance to get that guy certainly do the other part of it the second question do they have enough money I don't know because roster resources on fangraphs says that they're already over the third luxury tax threshold Alex anthopolos who I trust over fangraph says that they are not over that third threshold but I gotta imagine either way they are really really close uh so I don't know that they have enough money to take on Nathan avaldi there Leland Herz says one J with Max struggling for three consecutive starts do you think it will impact the bra's ability to go after him with a new contract assuming they want to we already C covered that but another one from Leland says Marcel seems to me to be striking out more lately struck out three times against Giants earlier what's up with that it does seem like Marcel's been off a little bit here the past several days I will say this that was some really good pitching that the Braves faced in San Francisco you're throwing Blake Snell who has been unbelievable Logan web was just really dominant and his in as well so they faced some really good pitching in there but Marcel does seem to be a tick off but uh you know we haven't seen that for long stretches of him this year so hopefully that turns around but I do you know the eye test for me says that Marcel has been a little bit off at the plate as well here lately but again hopefully that will turn things around e Goldie the longer I think about it the more impressed I am with what this team has done given all the injuries to core pieces how would you define success for this specific team season given the circumstances we talked about this I think last week's mailbag episode as well just kind of what should the expectations really be for this team when you consider all the injuries I think success for this team and I know brace fans don't want to hear this I think it is reaching the postseason I mean when you within the first two months of the the season you lose Spencer Strider in the first couple of weeks of the season and you lose Ronald auna junor you most teams that would shift their expectation to whatever it was to you know a step below that so if the Braves expectations coming in where World Series are bust now you're thinking maybe Deep Run in the postseason then you have all these regressions and you have some other injuries with guys out for lengthy periods of time maybe your expectations go down to another notch to you know hopefully make a deep run into the postseason to let's get into the postseason so I think for this team with what they all they've had to endure again don't to get into it but I believe personally The Baseballs were changed earlier in the year and that really hurt them offensively that coupled with all the injuries and just some regression that was expected but it came even harder than you expected I think just getting to the postseason would be success for this team and anything else you take is just gravy so again I know braids fans don't want to hear that because we came into the season talking World Series or bus but with everything that has happened I think that has to shift your expectations and what is considered success for this team and right now I think it just has to be getting into the postseason would be a success for this team with just everything that's gone against them colon Chalker says do you think this could be the stretch of the season the Braves start to turn it around and do you think there is still a chance the Braves could pull off another division title I do not I'm not conceding but I'm not expecting them to win the division title at this point I just have not seen enough consistent baseball they've had their opportunity this was their opportunity we talked about this two weeks ago I said if the Braves are going to get back in the division race these next 10 days or so this is their opportunity because the Phillies were were struggling and they had a tough schedule coming up the Braves you know were playing good baseball coming off that split they had in New York and then winning that Series in Milwaukee the Braves were playing good baseball and so you felt like okay these next 10 days you get it under five games back in the division and then you got a couple of head-to-head matchups with the Phillies hopefully get it even closer get it to within two or three games then maybe you got something there but they didn't take advantage of that you know getting swept by the Brewers not winning that Series against the Marlins losing at series to the Rockies you know you win all three of those series and you're within five games of the Phillies and then you really got a chance but now that you're still you know seven games back and the Phillies schedule's going to get a little bit easier it just again I'm not conceding the division I'm not expecting it and I don't think they will win it um but certainly would love for them to prove me wrong I do think to answer your first question though I do think this is a stretch of baseball that we could see the Braves go on a run and honestly they they need to and they have to if they're gonna just get into the postseason but I do think this is that chance if they can stay healthy and you know that's been a problem they just need to stay healthy have this group together and go on a run but this is the stretch that they certainly could do that because they are starting to get a little bit healthier in the rotation you get Michael Harris back I know you lose Solair but hopefully nothing major there but you just have some stability they just have not had any stability with the rotation or lineup all year long and it's hard to get on track when that's the case and you're constantly having to move pieces in and out because people are getting injured so this is hopefully the stretch we see the Braves go on I don't think it'll be enough for them to take down the Phillies in the division but again would love to be proved wrong all we got several more questions that I need to get to some on Matt Olen as well as what is going on with Duval and the Eli white situation we'll discuss all that here next priz pick is America's number one daily fantasy sports out with over five million active members and priz picks is the easiest and most exciting way to play daily 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that's code lockon MLB on the priz Jes app for a first deposit match up to $100 pick more pick less it's that easy all right jump back into some more questions here as we wrap things up our Theme Life says how many wins do you think the Braves finish with this season and do you still think Matt Olson gets to 30 home runs I'm going to say yes I think Matt Olsson still gets to 30 home runs it's gonna take a a big big ending here but I think he's possible I think it's possible that he can do that how many wins do the Braves get I'm gonna say 88 I've kind of gone back on that I think I said 92 um maybe at the the Midway point but they just they let some real opportunities get out from under them here over the past week or so so in those games I mentioned earlier so I'll say 88 wins and I'm going to say that Matt Olson does get to 30 home runs I'm say he gets to 31 even expecting a big finish from Matt olssen Leland herd in this giant series our top three pitchers did not get wins but team won does this happen often especially in today's game yes it certainly happens often um especially got good pitching matchups as well as part of it but yeah you see that a lot more in today's games with pitchers just not going as deep into games and you know Bullpen volatility as well Dustin m what do you think of the move to send Eli white back to Gwynette and keep dval and laurano when Harris came back I mean it's just a depth thing I don't it's not the here here's the question when this decision happened that I I was wrestling with who makes your team better right now Eli white or Adam dval here's another question does it matter I mean because you're really not gonna if everybody's healthy you're not going to use either one of those guys I would I would I I think you can make the argument I think it's a winning argument that Eli white helps your team more because he gives you a guy that can come off the bench to steal a base he gives you a guy that can come in as a defensive replacement now Duval can do that as well he's certainly an upgrade over over Solair but I think Eli white does that even better especially with that great catch that he made the other night it's kind of similar to what we the conversation we had earlier with dael Hernandez I think dael Hernandez is better than two or three of the guys we have in the bullpen right now but it's a depth game you don't want to lose that depth you know you call one of those those guys up and they get injured but you lost a reliever or you lost an Adam Duval because you had to DFA them you know then all of a sudden you're in a really bad situation so I get it from a a team standpoint looking at the long-term perspective but I do think Eli white is the better choice I think he makes the team better right now Matt Cox with freed struggles of late do you think the Braves have a better chance of bringing him back next season either on short-term deal or qualifying offer already talked about that I think the rapes do have a better chance of bringing him back on a short-term deal Klay Dockery Jake maybe this is my anxiety but I'm hoping you can give me some insight to alleviate it why does everyone assume Strider will be back to normal when he comes back some guys seem to take years every day or love the show thank you for that clay I think there's a little bit more hope with Spencer Strider coming back because it wasn't full-blown Tommy John surgery that he had that he had to have it was just cleaning up some bone spurs in that forearm so it wasn't as impactful as you know a walker buer who's really coming back this year from a second full Tommy John surgery this wasn't quite that for Spencer Strider it was just kind of more of a cleanup in there and I think that's why people are still more hopeful that he can come back and be like his normal self Dustin how would you set up the bullpen right now with the arms that are available currently at the Brazen striper since the bullpen seems to be struggling I think daille we talked about him a lot he's the one arm that I think certainly needs to be up uh right now for the Atlanta Braves they just brought up Dylan Lee so that's Obviously good there I think was the only other one that I think should certainly be in this rotation or in this Bullpen unless you know they start to look at AJ Smith Scher hon wal up there maybe they could be potentials as well Chris mfield worried about Max not look great since coming back I think he's gotten better each start coming back and I think he'll continue to do so um another I don't know this another Leland herd account but uh should we be excited for nacho and Drake Ballwin or they more likely to be traded in the offseason feels like we could use a little youth injection I'll be honest I feel like both guys are gonna get traded I like nacho I don't think he's going to be an all it's very similar to the Von Grom situation that I talked about for so long I I loved Von Grom I think he's great depth and a value to your team but I don't think he's an impact All-Star level player Drake Baldwin's somebody that I just I've never loved his swing but there's been plenty of Players whose swings I didn't love and they went on to have really good careers but I've just never been huge on Drake Balwin swing but it it is working for him question with him is where do you play him is Shawn Murphy's obviously there for a while unless you're trading him and I don't think that's going to happen TDA is probably going to be back DH fot is taken up I just don't know that there's a spot for Drake Baldwin but be excited about those guys but I don't know I think both of them could be traded and I would not be shocked Ryan Winters do you expect us to pick up TDA option for next year considering how productive he's been or who would you were the Braves consider to pick up if they don't sign freed back can't I don't really get into that it's who the Braves might sign Reed's not back but as far as TDA coming back I asked this question on social the other day and it was overwhelmingly uh yes from a lot of you out there and it's a yes for me too I mean he's just been that valuable as a leader and he's still producing on the field it's an 8 million option for very good backup so that's that's an easy one for me him and Marcel ozun I think are easy options that are going to be picked up this off season Braes Battalion with our productive draft this year do you see the brav farm system jumping up in the rank currently the farm system is ranked 20 6 I do I feel like I think it was fangraphs that had the Braves in the mid- teens somewhere this farm system is getting better and I think we will start to see it jump up a lot as some of these younger kids you know Yan Carlos Lara uh Luis guanipa Jose Pomo we see some of these kids come up D FES there's a lot of good young talent in this system and I think as it comes up you're going to see this system move up as well last question on social from Matt Cox do you think Morton comes back I'm open to bringing him back just not at 20 million I think I think Charlie Morton's done after this year quite honestly I still think he's good enough to be a big league pitcher as a third fourth starter but I I feel like he's done after this season he just reached 2,000 strikeout Milestone I think this is going to be it for Charlie Morton and I definitely think if you bring him back it can't be for 20 million again and I think if you're Charlie Morton you're saying okay well I'm just gonna I'm gonna ride out then I'm gonna go home so I think this is gonna be it for Charlie Morton all right thank you all so much for joining uh Yuki in here Mass boost brogg lesby Matthew Davis Antonio C Leland Wales as well thank you all for joining me here live being with me on the podcast really do appreciate it Carlos Paulino here from the beginning as well as David agnesia Reese Adam Dal thank you so much for joining me here on the podcast today make sure you subscribe on YouTube if you're new make sure you go make locked on MLB your second listen of the day and make sure you hit that thumbs up button on this video share it with a friend tell them about it we're almost to 11,000 subscribers on YouTube so thank you so much for all support make sure that you rate review And subscribe to the lockon brace podcast wherever you get your podcast and we will talk to you next time