Nate Silver forecasts 64% chance of Trump winning election | NewsNation Now

GIVE US STATE OF THIS RACE GOING IN TO TONIGHT'S DEBATE. OUR ELECTION FORECAST FROM DECISION DESK HQ GIVES VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS ABOUT A 55% CHANCE OF WINNING NOVEMBER 5TH. OTHER FORECASTERS MAKE SILVER COMES TO BATTLE MORE FAVORABLE TO DONALD TRUMP. WILL TALK ABOUT THAT AT THE MOMENT. LET'S DIVE INTO OUR OWN FORECAST HERE FOR. >> AMID ON THE DID DDH 2 PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST BOARD. HERE WE START WITH 241 ELECTORAL VOTES FOR DEMOCRATS. 270 NEEDED TO WIN 219 FOR REPUBLICANS. SO THERE ARE 6 YOU MIGHT NOTICE TOSS UP STATES TODAY IN YELLOW SAY TODAY BECAUSE MISSION CAN SEE IT UP THERE. IT'S SHADED A LITTLE BIT TO THE BLUE. IT GOES BACK AND FORTH, BUT WE HAVE IT HAS ADVANTAGE, HARRIS, FOR NOW, IF YOU TAKE OUT THE TOSS UPS AND JUST LOOK AT THE ACTUAL FORECAST SO CLOSE IN THOSE 6 STATES AND LEAN THE STATES HAVE NO TOSS-UPS THE WAY THEY ARE GOING. HERE'S WHY OR ONE OF THE REASONS WHY KAMALA HARRIS IS THE SLIGHTEST A FAVORITE. SHE HAS A VERY SMALL ADVANTAGE. OKAY IN WISCONSIN. SO WE WILL COLOR WISCONSIN, LIGHT BLUE. THERE IT IS UP THERE, PENNSYLVANIA. SAME DEAL COME BACK AND TALK MORE DETAILS ABOUT PENNSYLVANIA FOR A MOMENT EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO HARRIS AND NEVADA IS THE LAST ONE WE HAVE EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO HARRIS. SO THAT WOULD GIVE HER THE NECESSARY 270 SECTION, 276 ELECTORAL VOTES. ARIZONA. MAKE A PINK. IT'S JUST BARELY LEANING TOWARDS TRUMP AND SOUTH GEORGIA. MAKE THAT A LITTLE DARKER RED AND NORTH CAROLINA. SO NORTH CAROLINA, GEORGIA, ARIZONA, TRUMP GETS HIM TO 2.62 HARRIS TO 76 PENNSYLVANIA. I'M GONNA LEAVE PENNSYLVANIA IN YELLOW. WHY? IT'S THE MOST IMPORTANT STATE. WE KNOW THAT FOR THE 3RD STRAIGHT ELECTION CYCLE. IT'S THE MOST LIKELY STAY TO BE WHAT THEY CALL THE TIPPING POINT STATE. PUT SOMEONE OVER THE TOP. SO RIGHT NOW WITHOUT PENNSYLVANIA, IT'S TRUMP TO 62 HARRIS TO 57 19 ELECTORAL VOTES. STILL ON THE MAP, WE HAVE A NEW FEATURE HERE WHERE WE CAN LOOK A LIVE OUT OF STATE AND LOOK AT WHERE WE HAVE IT IN TERMS OF A FORECAST OF THIS WILL BE THE MAP OR SIMILAR ONE TO THE ONE WE'RE USINING ON ELECTION NIGHT ITSELF. SO THAT'S WHY YOU DON'T SEE ANY RESULTS POPULATED YET. BUT HERE'S WHAT YOU DO SEE THE FORECAST. THE PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST FROM THE HILL IN DIDI HQ HAS PENNSYLVANIA. NOT ONLY IS A TOSS UP BUT BARELY LEADING ONE-WAY. 53%. HARRIS. THAT'S NOT MUCH AT ALL. HERE'S OUR DATA GURU WITH MORE ON ALL OF THIS. SCOTT TRANTER JOINS US. CONSUL DIRECTOR DATA SCIENCE AT DECISION DESK HQ PART. LET'S GO THROUGH THIS AND IN SOME DETAIL. I STARTED INTERESTING PLACE TO BE A PENNSYLVANIA TO ME. THAT'S LIKE THE WHOLE RACE. 53%. AND THEN HARRIS OVERALL, 55%. BUT AS I SAID AT THE START, THESE OTHER MODELS, YOU GUYS, YOU GUYS ALSO US WAS WE'RE WITH YOU ABOUT MID 50'S FOR HERESY GOING. NATE SILVER. EVERYBODY'S TALKING ABOUT MID 60'S FOR TRUMP AND PEOPLE TRYING TO MAKE SENSE OF OF OF WHAT IT IS PEOPLE LIKE YOU DO TELL US. >> YEAH, NO. LOOK, THIS IS ONE OF THE CLOSEST LECTIONS WE'VE HAD THIS KNOW. THAT SOUNDS WEIRD. IT'S ONLY 2024, BUT THIS IS CLOSER THAN WASN'T 16 22,000 AS WELL. AND FORECASTERS HAVE A HARD TIME BEING PRECISE IN THESE SITUATIONS. ALL THOSE TOP, LET'S SAY YOU HAD TALKED ABOUT GEORGIA, NORTH CAROLINA, WISCONSIN, PENNSYLVANIA, ARIZONA, NEVADA. THEY'RE ALL WITHIN A FEW POINTS OF EACH OTHER, RIGHT? YOU CAN MAKE IN EITHER WAY. SO THAT'S WHY IT'S SO CLOSE SO THAT SO IT'S NOT REALLY AS DIFFERENT DIFFERENT AS IT SEEMS ON THE ONE'S WHAT SOMEONE LIKE SILVER SAYS OUT 65% CHANCE OF TRUMP. THAT'S NOT THAT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN SCOTT TRANTER TELLING ME. 55%. HARRIS. >> IT'S NOT THAT MUCH DIFFERENT, CORRECT? IT'S INTERESTING. A LOT OF PEOPLE REALIZE THAT RIGHT WHEN THEY READ THE HEADLINES AND THEY ENOUGH OF THESE POLLS OF THESE FORECASTS. I DO. I DO. HOW WOULD YOU DEFEND THE INDUSTRY GOING AND WHAT? WHY IS WHAT YOU GUYS DO NECESSARY? WHAT WHAT DO WE GET OUT OF WHAT WE JUST DID? DO YOU THINK? >> WELL, LOOK, MATH, IF DONE, RIGHT? YOU TAKE OUT ALL OF THE EMOTION AND ALL OF THE BIASES AND YOU JUST LOOK AT THE STREET PROVIDES, THANKFULLY A SOBER LOOK AT. AND I THINK THAT'S WHAT THIS IS. AND BY AND LARGE, AS YOU POINTED OUT, NATE SILVER, IT'S THE ECONOMIST. ANYONE ELSE WERE ALL SAYING THIS RACE IS POINT. CLIFF LEE, FLINT, EITHER CANDIDATE CAN WIN, WHICH MAKES TONIGHT'S DEBATE THAT MUCH MORE IMPORTANT AS PEOPLE IN NORTH CAROLINA START VOTING HOPEFULLY IN THE NEXT WEEK AND OTHER STATES COMING NEXT WEEK. YEAH, THAT'S RIGHT. THOSE ARE THE STAFF MEAN THERE'S A REASON IT'S IN PENNSYLVANIA, RIGHT? WE CAN POP UP POLLING NUMBERS IN PENNSYLVANIA. SEE HOW CLOSE IT IS. THE AVERAGE THERE. IT'S ALMOST ALWAYS. >> TIGER A POINT OR SO IN ONE DIRECTION. THAT'S WHY IT'S ONLY 53%, HARRIS. THIS IS CHANCE OF WINNING IN THE POLLS ARE EVEN CLOSER THAN THAT. AND THEN IF WE GO BACK TO OUR MAPS GUYS IN TH WANT TO ASK ABOUT THIS, SCOTT, BECAUSE PENNSYLVANIA WITH 19 ELECTORAL VOTES. IF YOU COMBINE IT WITH NORTH CAROLINA. >> AND GEORGIA LA TIMES WE TALK ABOUT THE BIG 3 FOR HARRIS WOULD BE PENNSYLVANIA, MICHIGAN, WISCONSIN TO TURN IT TO0. BUT IF YOU GIVE PENNSYLVANIA TRUMP AND THEN NORTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA TO TRUMP. THAT GETS HIM TO 2.70, RIGHT. SO FOR HARRIS, SHE'S CHICHI CAN BLOCK HIM WITH ONE OF THOSE STATES. THERE IT >> HE COULD. AND THAT'S THAT'S THE MOST THAT YOU CONNELL. YOU KNOW, I'VE BEEN LOOKING AT THIS MAP ALL SUMMER LOOKING INTO ONE THING THAT'S DIFFERENT NOW THAN WHEN WE'RE LOOKING WHEN JOE BIDEN IS ON THE MAP IS NORTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ARE COMPETITIVE. >> SHE MAY LOSE MICHIGAN HERE. I'M SORRY. SHE WIN MICHIGAN. SHE MAY WIN WISCONSIN. DONALD TRUMP SPEAKS OUT PENNSYLVANIA. >> AND THEN SHE STEALS A I SHOULD SAY STEEL. SHE AND HOPES TO PULL NORTH CAROLINA WHERE GEORGIA BECAUSE THEY ARE. >> THEY MORE LIKELY GEORGIA FOR DEMOCRATS. WORST CLOSE. YES TO THAT. WHATEVER SAYS, LIKE ALL OF A SUDDEN, WE'RE WAITING A WEEK AS WE WATCH ARIZONA AND NEVADA DECIDE THE ELECTION WILL TELL THEM THAT. AND THAT'S CRAZY WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT IT BECAUSE WE ALWAYS ASSUME SOME STATES GO TOGETHER. ALL RIGHT. HARRIS SKY ON THROUGH. IT'S GOING, YOU KNOW, OR BATTLEGROUND STUFF. AND HE WAS SAYING NONE. NOW. >> ALL 7, THEY CAN GO ONE WAY OR THE OTHER GO BACK TO THE MAP. GUYS IN THE JUST POPPING UP. THIS IS BASICALLY WHAT SCOTT WAS JUST SAYING. SO THAT WOULD PUT HARRIS ON THE PRECIPICE RIGHT TO 67. AND THEN IT'S AN EITHER OR CAUSE. NEVADA HAS IN ARIZONA HAS A LOT OF AND THAT'S WHAT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT. >> YEAH. AND THEN WE'RE NOT WE'RE NOT GOING TO DO THAT ON ELECTION NIGHT. ARIZONA, NEVADA ARE GOING TO TAKE A FEW DAYS, MAYBE A WEEK TO COUNT. THAT'S HOW THIS ELECTION GETS RAZOR THIN AND IT TAKES A WHILE. THAT'S SO CRAZY. IT IS AND HOW CLOSE IT IS. AND I HOPE THAT'S WHETHER IT'S OUR MODEL LEARNED SILVER'S MODEL AND IT WAS OUT THERE. THAT'S WHAT YEAR SHOULD TAKE AWAY IS. THIS RACE IS VERY CLOSE AND EVERY VOTE MATTERS. OK, FINAL POINT. WHAT WOULD YOU SAY ABOUT TONIGHT THAT THAT THIS WAS THE SETUP THAT WAS KIND OF THE NUMERICAL STATISTICAL SET UP? >> WHAT ABOUT TONIGHT AND HOW MUCH THESE USUALLY CHANGE WHAT YOU AND I JUST TALKED ABOUT. >> WELL, IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CHANGE IT. AT LEAST A FEW POINTS. AND ONE MIGHT SAY A FEW POINTS DOESN'T MEAN ANYTHING. BUT AS WE JUST LOOKED AT, LOOK, A FEW POINTS. COMMUNITY DIFFERENCE. ANY ONE OF THE STATES. THIS IS THE LAST OFFICIAL DEBATE. MAYBE THEY AND MAYBE THEY DON'T VOTERS ARE VOTING OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. THIS THIS COULD BE THE LAST, YOU KNOW, ABSENT