Debate DAYS AWAY: Women DUMP TRUMP, Pick Harris + What Polling Says in Swing States

[Music] summer is over and both campaigns are Full Speed Ahead to election day 67 days from now we're going to win Pennsylvania we're going to defeat comrade kamla Harris we are out here running like we are the underdog in this race because we know what we are fighting for vice president Harris has entered her post honeymoon campaign phase and is leading former president Trump in a number of state and National level polls the election is going to come down to seven Battleground states which Trump had an edge in prior to President Biden stepping out of the race but now one by one from Georgia to Michigan to Nevada kamla Harris has a narrow lead above Trump and even moved North Carolina to a tossup and in one week both candidates will take the stage facing off for the first and possibly the only presidential debate this election cycle to go on the record is Scott TR our director of data science for decision desk HQ Scott it's so good to see you again it's been a few weeks since we've chatted so let's jump right into it we know that former president Trump made a major admission this week telling Fox News he has every right to interfere in a presidential election while experts have called the claim disturbing do you think we will see any response to his comments in polling or will this just be another instance of trump being Trump without losing support from his conservative base yeah this is this is exactly what it's going to be it's it's going to be another comment that's going to be replaced by another comment that we're talking about and during during that time we're not going to see any erosion from his base um you know we Trump has effectively been running for president for almost 10 years now or been president during that time and and voters are pretty desensitized to some of these more Sensational comments he makes so moving on to vice president uh 's campaign she spent Labor Day in Battleground Wisconsin and Pennsylvania campaigning on the economy and this week her campaign rolled out and AD hating former president Trump over the economy we know voters IPOs poll released last week showed Harris beginning to gain some ground on Trump with the economy 43% of Voters said they backed Trump's plan for the economy while 40% said they backed Harris are voters buying her message on the economy or is this poll an outline no we we're seing similar things with uh in regards to what voters think about her economic policies she is at a slight disadvantage not as much as Joe Biden was but she is still behind Donald Trump and in the eyes of Voters in terms of who's best to handle the economy um you know she's only been running for about six weeks now but we have a a decent body of polls to work from um you know a little time to some time to to close that Gap but but that this is certainly solidifying in voters Minds yeah it's interesting because we know that Republicans tend to lead on the issue of the economy so something to look out for ahead of November so like I said before we know that Harris spent her time in Pennsylvania over the weekend teaming up with President Biden her boss campaigning with union workers the vice president made it clear that she needs their support to win the state but we know that Trump has also been courting labor unions uh Trump has been able to appeal to union workers in the past particularly in 2016 but Scott where does his support stand with the group now look he he was he he got a big get he got the trumpsters uh I'm sorry the teamsters um uh to speak at the RNC we know he has broad broad cross-section of blue collar appeal um you can kind of see that with some of these unions um obviously endorsing Harris but acknowledging privately and sometimes publicly that their significant chunk of their base is going to vote for Donald Trump um this is interesting we haven't seen a Republican battle another Democrat for um the the labor union base I don't know 100 years this this is certainly a change in in the makeup for republicans and Donald Trump is going to get a significant portion of those voters and they're going to be in places like Michigan Wisconsin Pennsylvania where the the union vote is going to be uh decisive to whoever wins yeah three of the biggest swing States this cycle uh you want to move from the blue wall to the Sun Belt new polling from Emerson College shows the Sun Belt states are up for grabs Harris has tightened the Gap with Trum that Trump had built when President Biden was still on the race the latest polling from Emerson College shows vice president Harris is holding a narrow lead in Nevada and Georgia now the peach state Georgia seemed to be Out Of Reach for Democrats this election cycle when Biden was at the top of the ticket so with Harris at the top of the ticket Scott what do you think is behind the new momentum well I think it's two things one is she is appealing um a little bit more to the African-American vote than Joe Biden was it's slight but it's it's in the it's in the cross tabs and to is she's the new fresh candidate um as you know Joe Biden's surprised a lot of people including me squeaking out of Victory in in 2020 in Georgia we know there are enough Democratic voters in Georgia um for a for a Democrat to win um and it's up to Harris to activate him so that's why I think we're seeing it be competitive both in Nevada and Georgia staying with the sunbell another recent State uh that is now up for play is North Carolina which we know Trump won in 2016 and 2020 the cook political report now has the state as a tossup so if Harris is able to flip North Carolina that would be a major blow obviously to Trump and Republicans so Scott if you factor a blue win in the state of North Carolina for Harris how much of an impact would it have on the Electoral College and would she need any other what other major States would she need to claim victory I know that Pennsylvania seems to be an essential one yeah I know if if she's able to take North Carolina which is a flip for her um from what Trump won in 2020 it really opens the map up um and makes it allows her to potentially lose a Pennsylvania or another blue wall state in which if she loses North Carolina um uh and loses Georgia she's got to win all three and so North Carolina is is is her being on the offensive uh and making it difficult for Donald Trump to uh to uh repeat his 2020 map that would really scramble some some things if if she continues to make that one competitive you mentioned cook made it a toss up you know our own ddhq Hill forecast has headed out a tossup for about a week now and I think that one's going to be uh closer as we get down the uh get get down to the wire here yeah North Carolina very much a state to watch we know that uh it has a highly uh contested governor's race there too so will be keeping an eye on those two races in the state so moving down to Florida the Harris campaign launched their Reproductive Rights for all bus tour in Palm Beach Florida on Tuesday with the amendment to enshrine abortion rights into the Florida Constitution on the ballot in November do you think Democrats have a shot at gaining ground in the Sunshine State or is this essentially a ploy to maybe get Republicans to send spend more money in States like Florida and hinder them at another places on the map uh H look I I it's good they're spending money there it's good they're spending time but it is not a state I would bet on for them to flip the presidential level um I would not be surprised if that Amendment passes but Donald Trump still wins the state by five to seven which would be an interesting uh interesting cross-section there um you know Florida is still a solidly Republican state um I think the Democrats are hoping the Republicans are going to spend some money there and the Republicans are going to have to spend some money money there if they want to shot at uh uh uh over you know defeating that Amendment um but but at the presidential level and even at the Senate level we haven't talked about that yet but I imagine we will over the next couple months it looks pretty solidly Republican yeah and one thing to note is that in the past we know that Florida voters have voted for Republicans at the top of the ticket like in 2020 with President Trump but have voted for Liberal ballot measures like increasing the minimum wage to $15 so we'll see how abortion obviously a very different issue plays there so one of moveed to foreign policy now President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continue to be at odds over a ceasefire deal in the wake of the killing of Israeli American hostage HS Goldberg Poland and five other Israeli hostages in Gaza Republicans and Trump have blamed Biden and Harris for the situation but Scott will this ultimately play any role in the election uh look right now it is the economy all the way to the end I mean foreign policy does have uh specifically the Israeli Gaza issue has some specific um interest among some some segments of both parties um but the economy is really running if there's an an escalation in the in the uh in in that conflict or any sort of major development I could see it taking over the new cycle but by and large it's the economy and immigration um this has certainly been this Israeli uh Israel Palestine conflict has certainly been um part of the polls and part of the issue U Matrix for for President Biden and Trump earlier in the year but we've kind of really seen it die off absolutely we'll keep an eye on that issue and you know whether it impacts the polls certainly negotiations are ongoing um so want to move to a new ABC News ipsos poll released last week that shows the gender gap continuing to widen Harris currently leads Trump by 13 points among women what is playing into her widening the gap with Women Voters and how worried should Republicans be I think a large part is she is a uh obviously a since Hillary Clinton a very serious candidate um and and potentially likely candidate to be uh a president slight favor right now in our own model and so that's that's inspiring and it certainly is uh I is a juice to her numbers among uh the female vote it is something the Donald Trump campaign should be worried about um the numbers were a lot closer for them um uh under Biden um and they're not close as you point out they're not close for for them under uh a Harris campaign um it's something they're aware of it'll it remains to be seen how they tackle it Donald Trump just never has had a good message um to Women Voters specifically ones that that that turn out a lot and uh I'm not necessarily sure he's going to crack the code over the next couple of months um but we'll see we'll see they're they're going for security security message that may or may not play out but it appears as you point out on that poll it's it's not moving the numbers like it was under Biden so another demographic Harris is leading with by double digits according to polls is Generation Z voters or gen Z voters Democrats are campaigning very hard towards these younger voters using social media and Tik Tok as a way to connect and even inviting influencers to the DNC last month for the first time we saw them all over in Chicago so Scott how key is the youth vote going to be this election cycle Ah that's always everyone's favorite question I think it'll be about as key as every other election in other words a lot of stories written about it but this election is going to be won by like it's going to be won by some of the segments we talked about earlier African American voters Hispanic voters Union voters um Women Voters and you know some of them will be gen Z but the vast majority of Voters who vote are over the age of 40 um you know again genz it was interesting a few months ago because it looked like Donald Trump was making some inroads um it looks like that th those inroads have have have lessened and the Democrats have raken a double digigit lead so that's interesting of itself but as far as their impact on the whole electorate um still a relatively small segment right we know that gen Z voters young voters obviously very important but older voters historically as you said have been the most reliable voting block so got to pay attention to the whole Spectrum there um moving here to Washington lawmakers are coming back this week and now Congress is facing down a deadline to prevent a government shutdown by the end of the month Scott what's at play here and will lawmakers put politics aside and seal a deal prior to the November election seems like a pretty tall order to me yeah it's it's been a while since we've talked about a government shutdown or any sort of government gridlock um I guess it's September you know the guessing game for for Congress and whether or not they're going to shut down is going to be fun for September uh I think it was Chip Roy who said earlier this week is like voters don't really care he didn't use those exact words don't really care whether the government shuts down and and I think that's probably relatively true the the the people Democratic Republican think Congress is not good at their job their their approval ratings you know in single digits and so they're just hoping that the election the actual election comes and and something changes and it looks like we'll probably have a chamber switch at the Senate and who knows where the house is at so by and large it's going to be a fight it'll be some news I don't know that it'll have any real effect on the presidential campaigns and I don't know that voters are going to pay a whole lot attention to it so on that note of flipping Chambers and the presidential campaign before I let you go what is the latest decision desk forecasting right now we have uh VP Harris at about 55% so slight Advantage but really pure coin flip tossup Republicans 70% chance of winning the Senate and again got a solid showing in West Virginia Montana although you know Bernie Moreno is still lagging post Labor Day in polling in Ohio so the Democrats could upset there um and what I think is probably going to be the most exciting chamber to watch over the next two months the house right now slight advantage of the Republicans but you know right now the model thinks they're going to have 219 seats you need 218 to control this is g to you know that's going to roller coaster over the next couple of months for sure I'm watching Montana in the senate race that seems to be a nailbiter but number of them all that outo coming out yeah absolutely absolutely a number of them to look out for Scott traner as always thanks so much for joining us thanks for having me and that's it for what's America thinking I'm Julia Manchester come back next week and be sure to like share and subscribe to the hills YouTube channel