Post-Debate BUMP? New Polling Shows MASSIVE Jump For Harris, Trump Unleashes On ABC And Media

[Music] vice president KLA Harris and former president Donald Trump met for the first time face to face at the ABC News presidential debate this week flash poll showed that a majority of viewers said Harris won the debate and her campaign was quick to call for a second debate moments after the first one wrapped up Trump on the other hand has wavered on whether he will take part in a second debate so what's the state of the race post debate and what can we expect to see next in the polls here to go on the record is our good friend Scott traner director of data science from decision desk HQ Scott as always it's so great to see you let's jump right into it are we seeing any post- debate bump for kamla Harris besides those initial flash polls well we aren't and I don't expect to for about another week I expect a lot of the big reput pollsters to go in the field this weekend after people have had time to digest the uh the debate and they're going to start making news early next um one thing I would note I'm not expecting a huge bump um for either candidate in the polls the electorates pretty polarized um I understand the post elction or the post- debate polls show that you know Harris won but you know Trump I don't think lost any supporters in that debate and I think the independence uh depending on the post- debate poll you looked at slightly lean towards Harris but I don't know if it's going to be enough to move everything so that's a completely different takeaway obviously from the first presidential debate of the general election cycle that obviously certainly had an impact leading to President Biden dropping out of the race so Scott how much will this debate ultimately you know move the needle down the line I mean you sort of just answered that question but you know if we're saying that in a week we'll start to see the results I mean a lifetime in a week is a lifetime in politics especially when Donald Trump is the candidate um look it my my my my favorite takeaway from this is I don't think it'll move it a lot but we are in probably the closest selection we've seen this Century right now the forecast says Camala Harris had a 54% chance of winning um that's down a couple points over the last couple weeks that's essentially a coin flip every single swing state is within a couple of points if not less than a point um so while I don't think the debate's going to move the the polling that much it doesn't take that much to affect either one of these any one of these states absolutely and you know like I said the Harris campaign feeling good about that first debate they immediately called for a second debate but Trump obviously wavering on whether he wants to do one um you know Republican lawmakers have told you know myself and our colleagues at the hill that they were somewhat unhappy with President Trump's performance and you know questioning whether he should even take part in this next debate do you think we'll see another debate man I hope we will um I'm a little surprised you know VP Harris's team minutes after the debate called for another one um you know Donald Trump called into Fox and Friends yesterday morning and and uh and he um you know wavered and did not did not take the bait on that one um I I I tend to think there should be and I I I would imagine they would but they got to accept it sooner rather than later because we're running out of days so I I really don't know on that one absolutely and you know going back to to Tuesday's debate both candidates were pressed on their plans to boost the economy and PLL show that issue continues to be a major priority for voters but polling shows Trump has an edge when it comes to the economy but was Harris able to move the needle at all in the debate I mean we know that she was forced to release more specifics about her plan which she has faced push back about not being detailed enough yeah you bring up the economy and most of these these polls Donald Trump um more voters test trust Donald Trump with the with the economy by 15 to 20 points so did she move the needle maybe but do I think she moved the needle you know 15 20 points on that certain policy issue I I I guess we we'll wait next week until we see the polling but I doubt we see that also immigration that's the second biggest issue in the in the race and Donald Trump um leads by double digits on that issue as well I'm not necessarily sure that he uh the needle was moved a lot on that one if any right right and you know we were talking about post debate one of the biggest nights or takeaways from debate night was Taylor Swift coming out minutes after the debate and finally endorsing Harris it was a long time coming but how big of a game changer is this given her massive following we saw that this week the federal Services Administration said that over 300,000 people visited the vote.gov website and you know that 300,000 number that was from as of Wednesday afternoon I'm sure that number has climbed since then so what's her impact going to be well it'll be interesting because that's a federal site I'm sure someone's going to Foy it we're going to see how many registrations it it actually um led to and and what states they're in it remains to be seen you know how many of those people actually fill out a form and voted um it's certainly going to be more than zero um but I think where the impact is more is going to be on the fundraising I've already seen in Camala Harris's uh emails referencing the Taylor Swift endorsement obviously Taylor Swift did it on Instagram social media um it's much easier to to to send Harris $5 on a website than it is to register to vote and you know wait a couple of months to do it so I think the impact is going to be immediate on the fundraising and remains to be seen on on uh the actual votes absolutely and we'll be looking for those uh new fundraising numbers uh in a few weeks but you know morning the morning new morning consult poll released this week showed Trump leading Harris by only 2 points points in Florida and Scott you and I have been talking all week about this um so I'm going to ask you again is this a sign that Florida is in play oh man I I'm you know this is one of those ones every cycle Florida comes up and what I what I will say before I answer your question is Florida is a super majority state in uh the state legislature for Republicans I believe the Republicans have all if not the vast majority of Statewide elected offices including a governor who won by uh who won Miami Dade by double digits just two years ago and so I say that to to to lead up is Florida is from a empirical standpoint pretty Republican so I doubt that it's that close but that's not the first poll we've seen where Rick Scott is within five and uh Donald Trump is within five two of the Republican candidates running um you know our forecast has that state pretty solidly in Donald Trump and Rick Scott's um corner for both president and Senate so so while I think that pll's close I I think my bet would be Florida goes red this fall so you mentioned that Senate race but we know that Florida is also home to two ballot measures this cycle those two ballot measures Amendment three and four are aiming to legalize recreational marijuana and um in shine abortion rights into the state's Constitution um you know both of those measures need 60% of the vote to pass so you mentioned Florida being a super majority state um it's interesting Democrats I talked to say that these ballot measures help juice the turnout for them but I imagine to get 60% to pass they need Republicans in Florida so how are these ballot measures impacting Rick Scott and Donald Trump I I I think it will cut down their margins you know Rick Scott's been elected a lot in Florida and he's been elected each time by less than 100,000 votes so he's kind of used to these close races um and you know this is going to sound a little bit counterintuitive but I think there are some Republican Pro marijuana and Republican pro-choice split ticket voters out there um maybe not as many as you know straight Democratic voters across the board along with Pro those two amendments um but I think the vote's a little bit more split um than people think and I think that's going to show up in in the in the final numbers here and Florida has a history of you know voters supporting liberal ballot measures like in 2020 voting to raise the minimum wage but turning around and voting for Donald Trump so this isn't new for Florida but Democrats obviously saying abortion is a very different issue it's a galvanizing issue so we'll see if that I guess Blue Wave we saw in 2022 that you know on abortion that didn't seem to play a role in Florida if it impacts Florida this time around with a six-week abortion ban and this um ballot measure on the uh this amendment on the ballot you know sticking with that Senate race though I want to go back to a poll release last week that showing that Florida Senate Democratic candidate former congresswoman Debbie mccarel po Powell she's trailing Rick Scott by only two points but other polls and we've mentioned this before including that same morning consult poll shows Scott leading her by around five points how wide is that margin actually and how worried should Scott be I mean you know going back to his past gubernatorial races and in his uh Senate races he the master of winning by a very narrow margin yeah look you know our average I believe as of this morning has Rick Scott plus three and a half plus four and that's that's him outperforming his his his electoral past right so in a way I would say that's good for him that's you know you and I look at that and say huh that's a little closer than Florida should be but for him he's outperforming his past uh his past electoral performances I think the Rick Scott race is going to be close um I I I don't think he's behind I think he's a little bit worried as he should be he always puts a lot of money into his races and he's out there he's at the debate the other night um he's doing a lot more events around the state he's really campaigning which you know he always does every election cycle um he's running this race a little bit more like a Battleground State than he normally does and you know if if history is a guy to the Future he's probably going to e it e it out absolutely well I want to move over to the House of Representatives the government is facing a potential government shutdown and speaker Mike Johnson obviously has a lot on his plate ahead of November's election he was forced to pull his continuing resolution this week after failing to Garner enough support from inside the party former president Trump also weighed in telling lawmakers to shut down the government if the save act isn't included Scott how do you see this playing out I would assume that most lawmakers and we know that Congress already has a pretty low approval rating with the American people don't want this sort of political gamesmanship playing out before an election man wasn't it like 10 years ago we were talking about McCarthy getting kicked out and Johnson in that seems like a political yeah man decade ago no but that was about a year ago I've aged 10 years yeah um and man government shutdown I think you and I have talked about that a lot as well look I I I think the the the the American public is like government shutdown when we talking about that a week ago 10 years ago and that seems to be the only thing Congress votes on is government shut down this or government shut down that um I think at the end of the day a government shut down as some of these swing state Republicans have noted would not be good um for the Republicans chances of keeping the house it would just give the Democratic candidates more ammunition to say Hey you know Republicans are controlling uh the budget and they can't even get anything across um but some of these people who are opposing the CR have some good issues that are on Americans Minds simply the deficit um you know I don't think we're up for a debt limit in the next couple months but we will be early in the next Administration and some of these members pushing this they're in safe races so it's not going to be a good thing politically for the Republicans um I think up and down the ticket if there's a shutdown but you know look Congress is pretty unpredictable especially the house and so we'll see what happens over the next couple weeks if they decide to make themselves an issue in this um in this 2024 election so I want to move to the upper chamber where Senate Republican whip John made a lot of headlines this week after announcing he will transfer $4 million from his campaign account to the National Republican senatorial Campaign Committee that is obviously the campaign arm of Senate Republicans do you think this move will help his chances of taking over um or getting a higher spot in Republican leadership perhaps Mitch McConnell's uh job this November and who else has a chance of replacing McConnell absolutely the the entire move was just to get people like us to talk about it and say man that's a lot of money and you know especially if if it looks like it helps the Republicans keep the Senate which is a safe bet um you know it's it's a good Propel propelling forward um look I I he seems to be the front runner um you know the Senate is the you know considered the most exclusive club in the world of just 100 total senators and you know there's probably only going to be 50 give or take to Republican Senators deciding this here in a few months um so it's going to be pretty close Rick scottt who we just talked about you know had run in the past um I don't think he has a great chance but he got I think 10 or 11 votes last time so he might throw his ring in there you've got John baraso John Corner both in Senate leadership both raising money they have conspicuously not said how much they've been given yet or given out even though they're good fundraisers at least I haven't seen anything maybe you have um so you know I think this is a good move by JN th and some of these other names I mentioned they're going to have to to step up a little bit if they're going to be uh you know competitive when they hold that vote here in a few months there is so much talent in line for Senate Republican leadership and I imagine it's a good problem for Republicans to have but at the same time um this could uh potentially turn contentious but we'll have to see Scott as always thank you for joining us thanks for having me and that's it for what's America thinking I'm Julia Manchester come back next week and be sure to like share and subscribe to the hills YouTube Channel [Music] [Applause]