Florida BEATING Miami in Week 1? There is a case for Gators to win l College Football Podcast

how good of a chance does Florida have to beat Miami that's Brandon Olsson locked on Gator joining me to discuss I noticed a line movement the other day Brandon because that's what I do in my free time it went from Miami minus 3 and A2 week one in Gainesville to Miami minus 2 and A2 now I don't know if that's public money or if that's sharp money but somebody somewhere is confident in the Gators why uh well it's me in in in Queens New York that's who it is it's me I put my life savings on it uh I I think that Florida look I don't think Florida's a great team I don't think Miami is a great team but I do think that both teams are in a kind of rough spot where they're not really proven on either side both are really young last year and you're expecting more from them but Florida is the team that has a returning starting quarterback Florida is the team that's at home in what I think is a top two environment in college football right now like just that that Stadium the swamp is insane to me I I feel like there's no good line for this so I I do think that I do think that it's fair to just go home team should win in this one because it's probably just going to be ugly either way well I think that's entirely possible you're going to have the the week one and early season Kinks getting worked out as cam Ward works his way into a new offense with new weapons and such I think that transition could be very good for him he's going to have the best offensive line in running game that he has had in his college career by a landslide it's not even close he he was on on some solid Wazoo teams but they were not able to build him an offensive line or a running game which is why I'm really high on what Miami could be this year CU I think they have a decent shot to unlock cam Ward's full potential this year of course they have Damen Martinez to join him in the backfield should be a very very strong rushing attack but I contrast this line movement Brandon and it doesn't make a lot of sense in my brain because over the same time period the last couple weeks or or months depending on the exact day when everything shifted Florida's now down to a four and a half win Total Team now that look everybody who follows college football knows Florida has the hardest schedule in the country that's not even arguable I know Brandon is fake surprised for all of you listening on podcast right now four and a half this isn't a four and a half like that's bordering on if you go under you're kind of a bottom dweller in the league Florida is not that right not at all I don't think so I think that the schedule just being what it is everyone just like oh they're gonna lose games like like they won five games last year and their schedule is harder this year so makes a lot of sense but uh yeah I I don't understand the four and a half win total I did a full episode when that win total came out that I was like oh I don't know who did it but thank you cuz I took it I promise you you need to get Daniel Craig's character from Knives Out on the case to figure out who done it yeah I I need to by the way they bring a third one actually I'm oh I'm so excited I will watch I would watch 27 of those movies if they kept making them genuinely genuinely you can make as many as you want I will there make it the next yep I will keep watching but I I just yeah I I don't really know where the four and a half win total comes from and I'm not one of the Florida Gator fans it's like they winning nine games this year but four and a half is a bit low especially when you consider you've got what seven home games this year you've got Samford on the schedule as one you've got Mississippi State as one of your very few Road games I think that's one of the things for Florida is that you don't have a lot of road games this year the ones that you do have are are pretty tough for the most part it's Florida State it's Texas it's Tennessee and then Mississippi state's the only one that's not a really difficult one there but I think if you look at four and a half wins realistically I think a lot of Florida Gator fans expect you to hit that total by the time the Georgia game comes in week nine I want to bring it back to this Miami and Florida game it's the best game of week one outside of where game day will be which is Texas M Notre Dame college station that that's going to be electric but those are really the two highlight Premier impact playoff ramification games that you've got on the Slate in week one which is pretty typical for a college football season because scheduling as I have repeated ad nauseum and will continue to do so is completely broken and doesn't make any sense in college football and if I'm ever elected commissioner that'll be my uh day one initiative there but I digress it's just it's campaign season Brandon on my mind so I think in this game you've got a quarterback advantage to Miami I think you've got a running game advantage to Miami receivers with Elijah badger in there that's a wash maybe even lean toward towards Florida Xavier Restrepo is a football player and he is a darn good one for for the Hurricanes amongst other weapons that they've got defensively I think I feel better about Miami head coach look I don't know if we fully know what Billy Napier is at the highest level I don't feel great about Mario Chris Ball in game but I also know that he he's won a decent amount of football games in his coaching career I think that's on the back of the talent that his rosters have and I think he has a talented roster roster here and the win total expectation is such for Miami for for a reason because they have a really talented roster do you feel like Florida is an underdog with the better roster here yeah kind of I do like I said I think both of these teams are very young last year both of them had had that argument last year of well we're not very good like sure Miami made a bowl game but but the argument was we're not very good right now watching these games watching these teams we know neither of them are awesome but they're young that's why we sit through it I do I've said this before I think cam Ward very well may be a better quarterback than grah Merz been been a big fan of Cam since the Incarnate Word days was a fan in there I I I knew him back he was balling at the FCS level balling in the rice Award winner for thiss level I'm just saying however he's going to be in weak one with this team in the swamp which is not an easy environment to replicate or play in there so while he very well may be the best one on the field uh I don't think they've got the quarterback advantage in that game I do think that that home field advantage is very big for Florida I mean we've seen Florida take some teams to deep water in the swamp where they had really no business in recent years uh with some of the Dan Mullen teams and Napier in his first year there uh not so much last year but I I do think that Florida's roster is undervalued right now and for me I think Miami's roster is I I'm more confident Miami's roster is overvalued than I am in Florida's roster being undervalued I think that really I think that when you have as many transfer portal editions as Miami had you need a lot of stuff to go right to get them jelling and moving like the machine they need to be in week one I've got some hesitancy there especially because they added a few key pieces in that second portal window so didn't even have spring and like Damen Martinez is not part of that like Damen Mar penis is a d yeah a run is a running back aun take the ball when it comes to you and make guys miss it's pretty standard yeah I'm not even harping on that one too much but I do think that them trying to replace as much of their defensive line as they're trying to replace in week one expecting them to come out and play damn well hard though for me man I I think that is an interesting angle angle to look at this game something that I can't shake out of my head with Miami is that Calamity for Kane's fans against Georgia Tech Brandon do you remember what Miami's record was going into that game uh I'm assuming they were like four- one five and one they were no no no no no no they were 4-0 no they were on the doorstep of five and0 and I think in college sports I think this applies to professional sports too there's something to be said about momentum and keep keeping it rolling I think that took the wind out of Miami sales they made a bowl game last year I don't think they came close to hitting their ceiling they bring back some key guys I love what they've done in the transfer portal I can't shake if they avoid a game like that and certainly you know this Florida game will be their first opportunity to not do that but if they avoid that Georgia Tech loss a year ago I'm not so sure Miami doesn't win eight games instead of six and I think they feel differently for you going into this one maybe but hey would have should have could have but they didn't and right now I'm looking at the same head coach that had that Gaff at the end of the Georgia Tech game or the same head coach that was in charge when that Gap happened at the edge at the end of the Georgia Tech game and I'm looking at a team that has to come into the swamp and again it's week one if if this game was even week four week three even I I would have a different attitude towards it but I'm looking at week one with a team that's trying to piece things together and then just they had question marks going into the offseason and on paper you addressed it same thing you said same thing Florida's offensive line Florida's offensive line should be better this year on paper they addressed the needs that they had we'll see if it actually works but for me I think Miami is very dependent on transfer portal players hitting and as we've seen so often doesn't happen I live by the general rule of however many players you have expectations for you probably got 10% that are going to actually hit those expectations 10 % they're going to fail miserably and the other 80% are going to be somewhere in the middle of your expectations there that's a nice clean line to end Today's Show on Brandon olssen locked on Gators week one Florida Miami in the swamp it inches ever closer Brandon thanks for stopping by thank you appreciate it can't wait to be in the swamp I am a little bit jealous of that just a little appreciate everyone listening I'll see you next time and until then hope you have a wonderful rest of your day