Dylan Raiola & Jeremiah Smith: Can they take Nebraska and Ohio State to the next level?

Here's what I want to do with these four freshmen. OK we're going to play a little bit of a game called if then if this, then that. OK again, if this, then that with four freshmen who had big games in week one. And to be fair, one of them's a redshirt freshman, but they are all still technically freshmen. So we're going to go with four freshmen. Let's start with the one that I think is kind of the the biggest of of all of them. And maybe it doesn't turn into the biggest, but it certainly could. And let's start with Nebraska. True freshman quarterback Dylan raiola. So Dylan raiola went out and he was 19 of 27 for 238 yards, two touchdowns in his first career game as a starter against utep. So what is the if then? Then that well, if he is just a net positive for Nebraska, then Nebraska will be playing meaningful games for the CFP when it comes to November. That's that's actually the standard. You see everyone has been talking about. Dylan raiola being possibly the savior for Nebraska, and he's going to rescue them and so on and so forth. But here's here's the thing. If you actually study them and watch them and see what they did a year ago, you'll see that this team was very close a year ago. And they had, I would say, a net negative quarterback play. Here's if they don't turn it over last year, they're a far different team from a record standpoint. They are 3 to 4 wins. Better think of it this way. Nebraska was -17 last year in the turnover margin, -17. That's worst in the power five a year ago. Nebraska lost five games by one score last year, five by one score. Four of those were by three points and the other was an overtime loss to Wisconsin. And in those games they had 16 turnovers. 14 were by the quarterback. So all you have to do is extrapolate that out and say if Dillon raiola is just a net positive and not a net negative, if he's just taking care of the football, those probably turn into wins. Again, 16 turnovers just in those one score losses from a year ago, 14 by the quarterback. That gets cleaned up. There's no doubt with the schedule ahead of them that they'll be playing meaningful games as it relates to the college football playoff in November, it was a bit of a wait and see for me after that first game and he showed some flashes. So yeah, I think he's really good. But again, let's just peel it back and actually say what it is. If he's just a net positive, then Nebraska is playing meaningful games in November when it relates to the college football playoff. So how big is this game against Colorado this week at home in lincoln? I think it's the difference between them having a loss or two before Ohio state and probably being undefeated if they go into Ohio state. You see, if they lose to Colorado, they're likely going to be in another one score game against like, let's say, a Rutgers team that's that's vastly improved under Greg Schiano. So then you can say like, well, if they lose to Colorado, they could probably lose another one before they get to Ohio state. But if they beat Colorado at home, then there's no one else that really scares you because they've put themselves on a level where they can beat two extraordinary players in sudhir Sanders and Travis hunter. So then all of a sudden you're looking at that schedule and you think to yourself, yeah, they're absolutely going to be a seven and zero team going to Columbus. So these are the six games that they've had. They have Colorado, northern Iowa, Illinois, Purdue, Rutgers and Indiana. Then the last five get much tougher. But then they're in it. They're in the thick of it. Now, remember, I didn't say if Dylan raiola doesn't turn it over, they're going to the playoff. I say they're playing games that will be meaningful as it relates to the playoff. They would go to Ohio state. They're certainly not going to be favored in that game. Ucla is is a team that they should beat and then they've got three games at USC, Wisconsin and at Iowa. They would be a one loss team at that point. They would likely be eight and one. And then it's a coin flip if like if you can go two and one in those games and you're a 10 win team, you not only are going to have an outside shot to be the second seed in the big 10 and go to the championship game, but probably an outside shot to be in the college football playoff. So that's why this is such a huge development in Nebraska and for all of college football, because if Dylan raiola is just a net positive for that offense, then all of a sudden they're going to be playing those last three with a lot on the line. So that's my number one. Number two, Ohio state wide receiver Jeremiah smith. He, you know, all spring everyone was talking about him and rightly so. And they've been trying to even slow down some of this hype for Jeremiah smith. And it was he was very hyped coming in. And, you know, obviously, Ryan day, given the like the the relief at the podium when he finally committed and sent his letter of intent into the woody, as they call it, the woody Hayes center, he had six catches for 92 yards and two touchdowns against Akron. And yeah, those those aren't going to like blow your mind. But some of the catches that he made did and in particular because of the style of catches that they were going to him for, which was if you're one on one you're getting the ball. So that tells you everything that you need to know about the belief that Ryan day and chip Kelly and will Howard have and Jeremiah smith because even their quarterback will Howard was saying he's the type of player that if he's got one on one coverage, the ball is going to him, it's going to Jeremiah smith. So then what does that mean? Well, if he's him, as the kids say, then he will be the tide that rises all boats for Ohio state and their offense. If he wasn't going to be him, then all of a sudden you can start to cheat as a defense and you can commit resources to stopping the run and you can make will Howard's life much more difficult? But if Jeremiah smith is him, like he started to prove against Akron and some of those one on one situations, now you've got a problem as a defense because he's probably commanding a double team, which means the safety is high. If the safety is high, then guess what? You can block everybody in the run front, at least to that side of the football. And that run game with quinshon Judkins and treveyon Henderson and even will Howard himself can start to get loose. If you've got a double Jeremiah smith and keep a safety over him, guess who's single covered or doesn't have the ratios. A mecca of bucha. So now all of a sudden he becomes the tide that starts to rise all boats. Now, normally we talk about that in terms of quarterback play. And listen, I get it. Wide receivers are generally a dependent position, but when he's impacting the structure of the defense before the ball is snapped, he becomes the tide. We saw it a little bit with Marvin Harrison, but I think this is even even different. More different because they're having to commit resources over there. It reminds me a lot of. Do you remember like the patriot teams with gronk and edelman? Those guys were such match-up nightmares that what ended up happening is they would just sit-in a formation and they did this in the super bowl. They did this in the AFC championship against the chiefs. I remember they would just sit-in and kind of a basic like empty formation where gronk was like singled over there and Edelman was in the slot. And then Brady would just decide based on the ratios where the ball was going to go. So at that point and moment, an experienced quarterback or play caller like chip Kelly or will Howard can then say, hey, defense, run whatever you want. You will tell me where the ball is going. But you can only do that if you have guys that are match-up nightmares, like a gronk or like a Jeremiah smith. So that's why I say he could be the tide that rises the boat level of the Ohio state offense. I don't think this offense is even going to need to score 40 points because of what they do on defense and how good they can be on defense. But I guarantee you this, if he's him, then watch out, because that offense can be explosive. Let's go to number three, Tennessee quarterback. How about this? I mean, nico maleeva I believe I said that. Ian maleeva. N/A If he's the real deal, then Tennessee is going to be the 2022 version of Tennessee and not the 2023 version. Niko looked incredible. Granted, it was chattanooga, and I understand that. But a lot of people listen. You could say the same thing about Akron. You know, for Jeremiah smith, these are young guys that are getting a chance to play. Now, I know that ilham aliyev played in the bowl game, but man, if this guy is the real deal, then Tennessee becomes a factor and they become a 2022 version of Tennessee, which was a problem in the sec. Niko ilham aliyev I'm just going to say it until it's. Ingrained in my head. Oliver was 22 of 28, 314 yards, three touchdowns all in the first half. So that's incredible stuff. And it wasn't just that he put up huge numbers. His wide receivers weren't having to adjust a lot. You watch him and I watch some of the film and some of the highlights. He was throwing the ball so accurately, driving it down the field. Our colleague on big noon kickoff. And remember Brady Quinn's coming up later in the show. But our other colleague in quarterback Matt leinart has known niko for a long time because niko is a southern California kid. Matt's a southern California guy, obviously. So he's seen him throw from a young age. Matt has always said that niko is one of, if not the most impressive young passers of the football that he's seen, and that came to fruition on the field for Tennessee. So now all of a sudden, Tennessee makes it a really deep race in the sec. Similar very similar to what miller moss has now made USC and and d'anton Lynn has made USC. So if USC is real now, all of a sudden the top of the big 10 becomes much differ different and more difficult. I was stuck between different and difficult there. But difficult is what I was looking for. We know this intuitively. Well, the same thing can be applied in the sec to Tennessee, very similar to what USC is doing over there. That becomes a problem. And now all of a sudden their schedule, which is very difficult, you know, they've got Georgia on there, they've got Alabama, they've got Oklahoma. And now it becomes a huge problem for those teams. How do those teams navigate tennessee? Because if niko is really this good, then this is a version of Tennessee that can go and compete for a spot in the sec championship game. That becomes a really, really good team. And now you know why they were so aggressive with him in recruiting? Because he he seems at least through one game to be that guy. Last one as far as a freshman goes if the if this then that we're playing is Alabama wide receiver Ryan Williams. If Ryan Williams if he is this good. Then Caleb Kalen Deboer has answers at wide receiver for the tide, which is not what they've had in the last two years. If you were to ask me what has been the biggest difference between Alabama's teams the last two years and the ones previous to that, and in particular, when you get to that 2020, 1918, you're used to seeing, you can go all the way back to like Julio Jones, Amari Cooper, Jerry Judy, Jaylen waddle, devante smith, Jamison Williams out there. And they haven't had that the last couple of years. They just have not. Now, if Ryan Williams becomes him, if you will, then all of a sudden they are back in that mold and they have an elite playmaker on the outside and now they have it not with, you know, some random offensive coordinator. I know all those guys didn't have random offensive coordinator. You had kiffin in there, you had sark in there, but now you've got Kalen Deboer. Think Roma dones like look at what Deboer does with elite wide receivers. He just took Washington and went to the national championship game. I know Penix was outstanding, but a lot of that was the fact that he had great elite wide receiver play. So if Ryan Williams is an elite player on the outside, watch out for Alabama because Kalen Deboer specifically knows what to do with a room like that. Ryan Williams could grow into that. He could be Deboer's new odunze and that's scary for everybody. So for freshmen that if then then that these guys are very good man, very good. I do want to give a quick shout out to a couple of other performances that they weren't freshmen, but they deserve a shout out. Ashton ginty the running back from Boise state. If this guy is going to be that good and productive, then Boise state's going to have a great chance to not only maybe knock off Oregon this week, but certainly represent the smaller schools in the college football playoff. Tetairoa McMillan went off for Arizona. That guy is one of the premier players in all of college football and certainly a guy that I think a lot of. So those performances I just got to at least mention out of week one, along with those freshmen that kind of burst on the scene. Ryan Williams man. Elite elite. Elite all these guys are elite. And there was some other ones in there too, that I just couldn't get to.