ACC Conference Championship Louisville vs Florida State | College Football Picks and Best Bets

[Music] all eyes are going to be pointed to Charlotte North Carolina on Saturday night uh the Louisville Cardinals are going to try to knock off The Undefeated Florida State simol uh in the ACC Championship Game 8:00 p.m. eastern Time on ABC and this one has got major implications for the college football playoff Florida State right now a two and a half Point favorite Juiced at minus 120 uh the total sitting at 47 and a half at bet us these two were in the same division since 2014 so they played every year until this year uh Florida State won last year's game 35-31 in Louisville with Tate rodmaker uh getting the majority of the quarterback snapped and the spread was oddly the exact same as it is now it was two and a half uh the Cardinals had won the two years prior to that in the last seven Florida state only two and five against the spread against Louisville look under Braum this year Louisville 2-0 straight up and against the spread as an underdog uh and it yes only twice Miami closed as a as a one-point favorite and Notre Dame was a six and a half Point favorite Over Louisville Parker I went back and watched Florida and Florida State to see you know really if the noes are going to be able to just out aete Louisville and basically everything that they got on offense in that game was off a broken tackle or a missed assignment uh Florida they were number 110 in tackle grade at PFF Louisville is number 44 uh Louisville's lost to Kentucky last week I mean obviously that's going to make you you know perk up a little bit like okay ky's not good look that it was weird they outgained the Wildcats by 114 yards they turned the ball over three times and twice inside their own 40 they allowed a kick return touchdown last week it was a weird game to lose um Florida State on the other hand managed 3.9 yards per play they went four of 14 on the number 106 PPA per Play Def defense purple uh in the country like four of 14 on third down there's I'm questioning a whole lot of things here what what are you seeing in this one Parker it's really hard to know how to contextualize last week for um for Louisville because it it didn't matter it's almost like the Notre Dame game um where like there's no world where Louisville was going to go to the playoff they're ranked so low right here um and so there there could be a little bit of voodoo with the Rivalry I mean Kentucky has historically had their number there r this is good you know good yards after contact back again again it did come down to a lot of weird kind of intangible stuff um substantially negative success rate for Kentucky winning that game the other side of this though is is how do you contextualize Travis being out uh is is um you know FL Florida State didn't look incompetent but they did not look good and Florida's defense did them a whole lot of favor so with Travis fully healthy uh I've got this by you know Florida State by nine I think what you're really relying on here if you're going to go Florida State is that their defense is good enough to muck up Louisville's offense and then perhaps get some of that positive variance on on on defense you know Florida state has two running backs that are in the top five or top 10 rather of yards after contact in ACC SEC combined was looking at Florida last week and in Kentucky as well so uh two two guys um you know and Benson can absolutely pop off an explosive run um what's really interesting to see is that Louisville's pass defense has been the worst unit they're 28th uh compared to 10th in EPA per run on on defense Florida state has been rushing 5.3 percentage points less than the average team expect we see that number go way way up how does Louisville's pass defense uh change knowing that Florida State's probably going to rush a little bit more and they don't have the improvisation abilities of Jordan Travis I think this is one we're talking about how much is a quarterback worth against the spread here I think last week we saw I mean Florida state was very very beatable without Travis um and I like Louisville's defense they're Scrappy up front which is good you want to get to the quarterback early not give your two absolute dudes in uh in in Coleman and Wilson time to develop on the outside and and exploit those matchups uh but even then I think Louisville secondary is is feisty enough to to handle both of them as well so if Louisville can avoid you know just the obvious defensive mistakes that Florida did I think they could keep this close enough that that they could win this outright uh I don't have a play because again without um without Travis it's just hard to it's hard to trust uh what Florida State's going to do um but both teams coming off rivalry games like last week that that really didn't matter in the grand scheme of things for uh for for this game so hard to contextualize for sure Kyle let's uh let's move over to you and let's look at some recent numbers okay in the last four weeks Florida State number 55 in PPA per pass on offense number 121 PPA per Rush uh now obviously half of those games include Travis half of them don't Florida State number 94 in PPA per drive and number 94 in offensive success rate uh like I said two games with Jordan Travis two without Louisville's defense is number 30 in PPA allowed per Drive uh Florida State number four in the five factors plus Talent while Louisville is number nine there's there's a lot I'm seeing here where uh where does the handicap start for you uh yeah I have quite a bit on this game so I I want to say first that I think if looking at the line the current line Florida State minus 135 on the money line minus 120 laying two and a half I think I would prob would take minus 135 if I like Florida State I don't usually say that butus 120 on Two and a Half uh juice on the other way you know why would you take Louisville money line plus 115 when you could get two and a half points for even money um I would definitely take the two and a half points in that case um you know I think for Florida State you know they had 24 points and I think you could argue that 24 points is pretty fortunate that they scored that many they had 224 yards 3.9 yards per play and I mean think about what Florida had been doing before that I I just pulled it up Florida before that they' given up 39 43 39 52 33 points so I think that was pretty bad look for the Florida state offense I know you can say rivalry game things are different I know that but Florida's defense have been pretty consistently bad down the stretch um and the fact that like you said Gary I feel like Florida State where they had success it was kind of a m tackle Miss assignment things like that Florida state was fourth in explosiveness on offense for the year but definitely less explosive with r maker than they were with Travis and Louisville you know as far as the side what's kind of confusing to me and I know some people are going to say you know Louisville was looking ahead to this game I don't think looking ahead to this game is the way I would say it because the Rivalry game does matter to them certainly um and is Louisville really good enough to look ahead I mean I know their their record is so good that you know people would say Well they're looking ahead Lille is not a great team and I think their underlying metrics would suggest they're not a great team and while Parker didn't bring it up I'm gonna bring it up for Parker Parker didn't you have Louisville to win the ACC I did I wasn't sure if I was allowed to like take a take a Victory lap because really it all was born out of a text message where I was just like wait they don't play Florida State and they don't play Clemson in the regular season are we sure this is a dumb idea and here we are right what was it plus a thousand is that right yeah yeah yeah that one and Oklahoma State plus uh I there 6,500 at some places so yeah feeling good about both of those ignore everything else that I got wrong focus on those two because because Parker didn't want to take the time to brag and give himself a pat on the back I did want to say those were great calls there and you know there is a a um a real talent to finding these Futures that have uh good value and I remember Parker saying that before the season and I'm kind of like Louisville's really not that good and now I look at the schedule it's like yeah that I've seen worse ideas it was a great idea you know it's a team that's not a great team but based on how the schedule laid out it was perfect uh so now you're almost 5050 to win it with a banged up Florida State team I mean this is a fantastic situation if you took that future for sure I think Louisville's defense has been far better than I expected them to be they're the side of the ball I thought they would experience more regression than they did this year they were so good last year they 40th in yards per play allowed 21st at PFF in overall defense grade sixth in defensive line yards Florida state is 11th in offensive line yards I just don't think Florida state will be able to run it down their throat it would surprise me if they can uh Louisville you know I don't know that their offense will be really good here either I can tend to think this will be a a lower scoring game high stakes game Florida State could certainly win but um yeah I don't just don't see them scoring too many points so what I'm going to take here is a Florida State team total under uh let's see what what is that under that we got 25 and a half is that right Market consensus there 25 and a half I plays right into what I'm seeing right I have seen Jeff Braum pull off some crazy stuff and I got to believe that he's got some things he's goingon to pull out for this one uh the Louisville offense is is better than this current version of Florida State's offense and I'm going to trust him to catch Florida state in in just an incredibly high pressure situation for norvell's Bunch with with Tate rodmaker um I'm going to take Louisville plus the two and a half here I think they win the game outright their defense is awesome and it will I think it will stop exactly what Florida state is capable of doing uh with this new quarterback I I know that we saw Tate rodmaker throw it all over the place at Louisville last year I know that but I I don't trust that Florida State offensive line and a little bit higher pressure situation than what rder maker walked into last time so we we'll see obviously but uh but let's lock this thing in I'm going to take Louisville plus the two and a half even money and Kyle is going to take the Florida State team total under 25 a half on this [Music] [Music] one [Music]