European elections 2024 - Results, analysis: Follow LIVE • FRANCE 24 English

to election Night Live Here in Paris on France 24 with me Arman georan and with me Gavin Lee 4 days of voting almost 400 million people eligible to vote over the course of the next hour we're going to bring you all of the details projected results of the European Parliament elections remember it's across 27 different countries so we're going to explain what it all means how the EU power Dynamic could shift too we'll have the latest figures for the evening and full analysis tonight of what's going on as it unfolds starting here in France so let's start at the HQ of President macron's Renaissance Party part of the liberal Centrist renew Europe group with CLA pakan and we'll be at the farri right National rally party headquarters tonight with James Andre we have yink oot standing by at the Socialist Party headquarters and verica beel at the far-left party of France unbowed and we will be across Europe as the projected results come in reporting the stories of the night as they develop Dave keting is awaiting projections with the Press P the politicians in Brussels SEMA gupter is standing by in Rome we'll be talking to Nick Holdsworth in Berlin about estimates from Germany which have already come in and we've got Sarah morz standing by for us in Madrid and Luke Brown in Budapest in Hungary a key player of course and we'll talk to van and vets in Amsterdam the Netherlands the first country to vote on Thursday and here with us in the studio in Paris we have France 24's Catalina Marchant Deo Catalina hello Gavin hello Arman I will bringing in the live projection of results as soon as they come in what we have so far are the results of the outgoing Parliament as of May 2024 this will be updated as soon as results come in in the next 30 minutes or so okay and to give the big picture to break down into the manui too we have French politics editor M perant big night we should know results with it about for France maybe estimated projections 28 minutes 28 minutes know them sharp yes well let's start here in Paris James Andre is at the headquarters of the far right National rally James set the scene for us there tonight yes well uh I'm in this eastern part of Paris in this Pavilion which is in the forest it's rather a nice venue and well we have seeing a lot of people arriving they have been arriving we see militants but also party leaders who are present who are answering questions journalists Etc and indeed well a lot of question marks tonight of course for now we're waiting for these projections of course but uh one of the party leaders was telling me that of course what everybody will be looking at is how many MPS uh the uh party can put at the European Parliament and that of course will Define uh you know the power play between all these hard right parties on the European Lev level will they manage to create a super group to the right of the right in the European Parliament and who will head uh that supergroup well these are of course all the questions that are up in the air while we wait for these results and of course Jordan bardel who is uh the the head of this European list well he has arrived here uh we've been told that he is uh you know in the back getting ready for his speech which is expected uh shortly after the official estimates are announced thanks very much James will be coming back to you of course in the next half hour or so meanwhile CLA pela is at the headquarters of President macron's party which only narrowly lost to the far right last time around CLA what's the feeling where you are well I've been speaking to some of the supporters in the room here people who've come to support Val a she's of course leading this presidential majority list and I've got to say I am detecting some nerves people telling me that they're trying to be optim istic but it's fair to say I think that their candidate has had some difficulty getting her voice heard she's not a well-known politician here in France her her her her post as leading that presidential majority list was only announced a few months ago so she's really had to try and make her voice heard in a small amount of time and her Rivals some of her rivals in this campaign have been in the spotlight now for several months so that's been a challenge for her but her supporters will say look she has considerable experience in the European in Parliament she's actually chair of the renew group there so that of course is at the moment in The Last 5 Years been the third largest group in the European Parliament so they say she has considerable experience we're rooting for her but certainly I would say that there's a little bit of nerves anxiety in the room here tonight as we wait for those estimated results to come through in a little under half an hour okay Claire thank you so much CLA pakala from uh the Renaissance headquarters now let's turn back to Kath CA in the studio here for a look at voter turnout uh in France indeed Let's uh first compare the final turnout for European elections compared 2019 to what we have so far the 2019 European elections marked an overall sharp increase in participation compared to 2014 this also applies to France that recorded a 50.2% participation rate marking an increase in 7.69 percentage points since the election in 2014 in France we talk about exstension rates so this translates to a 49.9 uh exstension rate in 2019 which is Major almost half of the French population abstained from voting in 2019 this year it seems similar estimations coming in the French extension rate is estimated at 48% as of 500 p.m. uh this afternoon marking a slight increase in voter participation in France we we will update these figures and estimations as soon as they come in it's really interesting if we go back to what the Spanish say anano deapa the year of the pair back in 1979 we were seing 62% turnouts then it went down in the '90s 2000s to about well 40s so it's gone back up 2019 it looks like it's a pretty similar if not higher turnout today let's go to liisa kov sunny day here in Paris she's at a polling station few minutes left Lia of voting absolutely so I'm outside this polling station in the center of Paris uh as you said a few minutes left uh most of the voters have already cast their ballot but we're still expecting the last influx of Voters to come in uh just before the polling station closes as Catalina was saying uh the latest uh turnout figure was 45. 26% uh now the IPS sauce research agency here in France uh did say that the figures are already overall looking higher than in previous years and this could be due to the largest scale of the election this year here in France we do have 2 million more registered voters than in 2019 they are uh voting they are choosing between 38 record number of lists uh putting 81 members to the European to the European Parliament and of course the European Parliament itself has 720 seats which is up from 705 back in 2019 so it will be interesting to see how the scale of this election uh impacts the final results but like you said we have to wait for the official announcement later this evening so Li you say we've got an extension uh rate through so we can kind of flip reverse it minus a percentage or two and think okay well at this rate we might have around 52% voters is there a demographic breakdown who's voting what ages So speaking to uh polling station staff throughout the day uh the demographic has actually varied uh depending on the neighborhood and the towns in France so this morning we were in sandon subur north of Paris and most of the people voting there tend to be between mid-40s and mid 60s a very few youth uh whereas the polling station here in central Paris saw uh pretty much how half half uh half elderly people half youth uh it's also one of the poce stations which tends to have a higher rate of participation um but speaking to a student who came here to vote he did say that uh the youth could be among the largest groups of people who abstaining and this is because they don't feel particularly represented by any of the candidates and also a lot of them uh felt like there wasn't enough communication and they don't really know how the EU concerns them or how the result of this vote could impact their daily lives yeah that's a good point thank you Liz to come back to Mark pman our French politics editor in the studio Mark what do you think of the visibility of this campaign how how sort of pro high profile do you think it's been well it's not been high profile Armen to put it mildly uh and this is why uh the turnout figure is somewhat surprising because people thought the French are not in interested they don't want to hear about this the European Parliament it's too complicated it's too far away we don't know what they do what they rule on essentially and uh there was a also a lot of disappointment uh with many of the traditional uh parties that we've seen in other elections so the Assumption was that the turnout could be lower uh than the previous time this is according to our partners not going to be the case uh tonight the question now is whether this will make a difference uh last time round the greens made a last minute push they really had a bump in uh the results compared to uh the previous polls let's see if this uh plus 2% in turnout makes a difference uh because obviously it's only still half of the French who are going to be voting so this might make a difference uh because the polls have been very stable uh for the past two months we'll have to see but it's interesting because uh at least uh the French did not uh really disappoint more the politician were hoping that they would turn out uh not in draws but at least in a decent fashion Mark and if also worth saying if people are watching france4 tonight and you're wondering why we not getting straight into the the sticky stuff the depths of the political analysis we're in still right now in electoral silence we've got about 20 or so minutes until we can start to unleash and get a real sense of what's going on so in that time though let's go to the Socialist headquarters here in France and let's pick up with yinka or your T what's the mood like there hi there Gavin yes I'm here at an auditorium in uh the Bel in B is called the b w and it's a live music venue but here is also where the first Cooperative the first Cooperative in Paris was created in 1877 so it seems quite appropriate that the Socialists have decided to um pick this venue as their venue for election night as you can probably hear there's very much a upbeat atmosphere it's very Lively there's a live DJ actually playing music um and there's really a hopeful and optimistic atmosphere here at the Socialist HQ as speaking to some of the party members they say that while today marks the end of a long campaign it also marks hopefully the start of a beautiful Adventure in Europe um it's important to remember that five years ago in 2019 the Socialist Party were able to secure 6.2% of the votes that translated to six uh seats so we'll have to see what um tonight will hold well thanks very much yen let's go to the far left now in France the France unbowed party in verica beel is there uh verica what is the the party uh faithful what are they hoping for tonight yes am well it's a bright sunny day here in Paris and you could even say that that sunlight has really shun its way into the France unbowed headquarters uh here in the 19th a the mood is is very Dynamic uh if you will there is also a fair amount of supporters that have turned themselves up uh to support outside the building uh many of them are quite young uh a few of them also wearing the kefia the Palestinian scarves as the party has made itself quite clear on its stance uh calling for a ceas fire in the Gaza striet but there's definitely an undercurrent of optimism running through uh the at the headquarters here uh tonight people are in pretty good spirits and they're definitely hoping to build on the last election results from 2019 where France onal uh gained about 6.3% of the seat now I did speak to some party members earlier and they told me uh that they feel confident they feel that they ran a strong campaign uh overall and they've done their best and they really hope that it just reflects in those results uh tonight so ultimately the mood here is hopeful and they're very upbeat about their chances to to keep that momentum moving forward uh but we'll have to see later on amen yeah and interesting you mentioned about the Palestinian flag that's been a real dividing line in this whole EU election campaign between the left and the right with the support for Israel really coming from the more rightwing part of the political Spectrum but um let's talk a bit now about how the Parliamentary groups in the European in Parliament work uh who are they and how do they work together we'll get that with uh Catalina again here in this Gudda exactly Arman let's take a look at the main parties to look out for uh during these European elections and the key players Within These parties just a reminder uh this is from the outgoing European Parliament from 2024 as these figures will still be updated over the years there two main political groups that dominated in the European elections uh the conservatives the EP and English LED in this election by Ursula vand liion and the Socialist the snd LED in this election by Nicholas Schmidt although these groups are the dominating groups in the youth uh they have lost seats in the past two European elections then we have the far right with the ID identity and democracy group a major player in elections to look out for the main points of suspense in France how big will be the victory of the far right with Jordan bardella and Mah leen's National rally who belong to the 's ID farri group then we have the European conservatives and reformist ECR group whose president is Italy's Georgia Maloney the group located in the right not to be confused with the far right uh finally we have uh the Centrist group renew Europe French president Emanuel Macon macon's Renaissance belongs to this group in the European Parliament we also have the greens who saw a major victory during the 2019 elections with called The Green Wave in the U but for now the EP is still the largest group in the EU Parliament with the most seats right now as of 2024 maintaining the agenda setting power including the choice for the next commission president Catalina thank you okay so we have some of the first early projected results I want to flush this up from Germany where we have a sense of how things are looking tonight you see the biggest notable difference the Christian democrats the old party of Angela Merkel in the EP uh the center right CDU the biggest vote here nearly 30% of the votes then notably afd the alternative for Germany 16.5% um some would say some analysts are saying this evening they are a big winner this evening rising from 11% back in 2019 and look here we've got the SPD the social Democrats of Chancellor Olaf Schultz on the center left they have had a bad night tonight that we're looking at it it's uh particularly bad that they are in third place at greens 12% they were the story back remember back in 2019 they saw a significant rise there was Big Talk of climate change that was on the agenda not tonight they are from these early predicted results they are also suffering the left 8.3% and also on the fdp as well the free Democratic party of Christian lner Center right 5% just making the threshold because if you get less than that you don't have a single seat in Parliament I want to quickly bring in Mark Perman here for the moment this is a bit of a shock for Olaf Schultz tonight this is more than a bit of a shock this is a major major defeat for the German Chancellor clearly and and not only for him for all the three parties members of his Coalition the greens and the fdp they took a beating tonight clearly uh the conser atives who were in a bad position are bouncing back and the afd despite all the controversies of the last weeks and so on people thought they would not score big but they did uh score big 16% for the afd is a major major uh performance for them uh we'll see if this is an uh Omen for the other uh rulers in the EU but clearly Germany is already sending a very very strong message through this European Parliament election the afd is a very interesting story because if you look at the start of the Year their leader in Europe maximilan craw they had a spy Scandal alleged they had links and his assistant with China and taking money for China which he denies they saw a slump in the polls then recently we saw a stabbing of a police officer death of a police officer a rally allegations that this was a a migrant from Afghanistan who arrived in 2014 the party used that so the opposition would say weaponize that to say this needs to be on the agenda a big plan for them in fact it's worth saying johie kamu welcome to you in the studio and have just arrived with us political scientist far right expert just give us your initial reading of those results coming in from Germany well my first reading is that maximilan CL was uh obviously right when he shows the radical path during his campaign uh despite all the controversies including the last one which had to do with the V which he believes is not a criminal organization uh which is quite uh extreme uh we see tonight that the the outcome is very good for the afd maybe also because of this stabbing which recently took place and of course the the afd capitalized on that and tried to show that immigration was a was the number one problem in Germany and do you think joh K that this will be a boost to that whole group in the parliament identity and democracy because of course the other members will be watching Germany very clearly at the afd being such an important partner for them and its performance will be very closely scrutinized weren't it yes there are two options actually the first one is that Marine Leen who has repeatedly said the last few months that she doesn't want to uh continue working with the afd will say okay they are strong 16.5 so let's think about it maybe we can reach some kind of a compromise the other possibility is that Mr K had been into talks recently with other much more radical parties especially uh the from the from Eastern Europe to set up a new group in in the EUR Parliament but uh he will probably have the necessary number of MEPS but you know you not only need to have a certain number of Ms they need to come from a a number of member states and this he will probably this is a criteria he will probably not meet I would like to talk you to talk a little bit about Germany in terms of campaigning all of the parties because you mentioned we talked about this this stabbing this death of a police officer at a far right rally to which it seems certainly politically many parties including Olaf Schultz are kind of talking about migration on the agenda in ways that they weren't before aware of a potential swing how do you think that's affected the political climate that has certainly affected the political climate because uh on the uh left of the political Spectrum we see that the movement recently setled by Sahar vages formerly from the Linka meets the 5% threshold and will send MPS to Brussels so even on the left as there are people nowadays who say we have to need we need to say something about immigration but the story in Germany is much the same as that in France even when the left begins talking about immigration V voters go to the party uh that I mean do that on his agenda first many many years ago and this is V extrem right okay well thank you so much je K we'll be coming back to you shortly of course but for now let's go to Brussels and our correspondent Dave keting uh Dave what's the state of play and uh how how are things looking with the what you're seeing now for the um estimate so far well I'm here in the official results Center they've set this up in the uh hemicycle of the European Parliament actually and so as we're getting these exit poles uh of course we're getting the different groups kind of spinning the result uh for Germany for the center left group The snd there was no spinning that that was a disaster for them uh because Germany has a lot of seats in the European Parliament it's a large country and this is a big big drop for a very significant part of that group now in about 15 minutes uh 20 minutes we're going to get the first projection of what the new European Parliament will look like based on some of those exit polls also some official results from countries where polls have closed already uh so that will be interesting to see that will be very preliminary but that will be our first indication of what the new European Parliament will look like and of course the big story this year is the potential new power of the far right we don't know exactly what type of gain they will have uh but the big question is could they get enough seats to actually be a potential partner for the center right EP and for the European Parliament to have a right-wing uh majority that is still an unlikely Prospect based on the opinion polls that we've seen but it is possible and that's the big thing people here in the results Center will be watching tonight da very interesting your your screens turned a bit of Us in the most unfortunate place on your face but we'll be back with a corrected screen no doubt very soon let me introduce Aran Gonzalez Leia pleasure to have you in the studio former foreign minister in Spain under the Sanchez coalition government 2020 2021 and now dean of the University of political science science po here in Paris now we are in a moment of electoral silence so we have to be cautious for about 16 minutes but just give me a general feeling anxious nervous hopeful no I mean I I trust the European voter I trust that they will make the right choice I trust that they will reflect a bit of the anxiousness that exists in European politics at the moment but I also trust that at the end of the day uh this big Center that uh that drives European politics Christian democrats social Democrats liberals uh and greens uh will hold uh and will be uh hopefully the engine that with a bit more difficulty than in the past legislature will still be able to drive uh the European uh Union forward you are a seasoned political force just let me ask you obviously now with science po as outside looking in but how many uh European Parliament elections can you count now that you've been involved in in the past quite a few quite a few last 30 years wow last 30 years and it's every European Parliament election has been different last time it was all about whether um we countries should leave the remember after brexit there was fit then there was it alexit we still have British parties involved in the 2019 elections correct but um this is that was then this is now now it's not about exiting the European union now is changing the European Union from within the terms of the debate have changed and uh the European citizens have understood this if you ask them what they need they say they want protection comp competitiveness jobs um and security because they they see a war next door now I'm not sure that a lot of what we've seen happening in the elections have presented the problem in this terms the the terms of the debate today should be the response to the challenges that the European citizens face more National policies more National Solutions more National politics or more Federalist more European Solutions we know where the EU is not integrated the EU is weaker and it protects the citizens less that's what this is what uh the new uh cast of characters Parliament commission and Council will find on their table really interesting okay well thank you so much we'll come back to you of course very shortly but let's have a quick hit with our Rome correspondent SEMA gup of course in Italy the uh prime minister uh Georgia Maloney who is uh the leader of the hard right European conservative and reformist but is not actually going to take up a seat in the European Parliament but seear I gather Georgia Maloney has been speaking earlier today what what's her where's she heading with this whole European election well she's really uh trying to sort of repete the result that she had had at a national level and that in repeating that in the European level that she's hoping to tighten the grip on the Italian politics now her brothers of Italy party are a a far-right party that's part of the European conservatives and reformist grouping now they're projected to do well like several other far right parties around Europe now she's tipped as such to be a king maker taking Center Stage here in Europe she's being cted by different right-wing parties uh she's got the center right uh grouping of the European People's Party the e commission president Ursula V delion she's hoping to get a second term and she's seeking Malone support uh and she's even said that Maloney is a clearly a pro-european uh person a pro-european politician so she's hoping to get her support so that she can get that second term so you've got the center right trying to get her support and at the same time you've got uh Francis Marine Leen who's part of the national rally party the leader of that party who's part of the identity and democracy grouping and the farri super group she wants to create with Maloney so she's been CED on both sides but for the moment she's not really saying who she's going to be uh supporting we'll have to see what comes out at the end of these European elections voting continues till 11:00 p.m. here in Italy okay the Maloney Gambit we're going to get on to that with you sea later on in the program we've got about 90 seconds now until we start to see the result from here in France I'm going to bring in Mark pelman Mark you talked about the the turnout I just want to give us give us a sense of how the campaigns have been going you mentioned earlier they haven't been particularly strong in the last few months no it's true I mean uh politicians have had a hard time trying to interest uh the French public to this election what it means for them and uh some have tried to frame it as a national election that this is All About Emanuel macron uh we just learned by the way that the French President will address the French people tonight which is rather unusual in an election night uh we've heard him a lot in the last few he's been on the media a lot to be fair he's been in the media much the green of his opponents who said it was unfair uh that it shouldn't be this way before European elections but obviously this shows that it's an important election especially for the French President but it's worth noting it's fairly unusual on an election night the president gets involved it's usually left to the leader of the European uh party is it it's true but Europe is at the heart of Emanuel macron's commitment and I think he wants to talk about this tonight okay as you can see the clock ticking in the next 10 seconds we are going to get sense of the political landscape here in France for French parties in the 2024 European elections and this is how the political landscape looks tonight it is the national rally the far right National rally 31.5% double that of renew Emanuel macron's party you can see the European candidate on the screen Valerie a on 15.2% remember back in 2019 there was only one percentage point in it national rally winning on 23% so significant victory tonight as many of the polls have suggested in third the Socialist Party you can see rapael Gman former journalist on 14% he talked about uh re Europe or rewake Europe the Socialist parties are waking up as well because they performed badly in 2019 and we look at the far left the France insom France unb 88.7% tonight I want to go to the HQ of the winning party tonight where will no doubt be celebrations and let's go to James Andre yes well indeed here as you can hear these militants behind me are chanting on on which is just what indeed uh they just discovered these results which are excellent just a few minutes ago discussing discussing with a A young militant of the RNG the he was telling me that 30% uh would be considered by him and by the party as a victory well that is indeed uh it's actually more than that we can now expect that the national rally will be sending you know probably at least 30 uh 30 MEPS uh to uh to to the European Parliament and that of course is going to put them in a place where uh they will be most po there will be the the largest group of uh National nationalist right-wing uh MEPS now the big question is of course how will they leverage that politically uh in Europe but indeed according to these estimates well yes it's a very clear Victory and you could see it on the faces of the those who are here at the beginning of this evening uh that are obviously expecting a a very good result one other militant was telling me that uh uh that he was uh he he considered that Jordan bardel had indeed uh led a very good campaign that indeed Val the the main opponent did according to them again a bad campaign and that they were they were expecting good results tonight so that's what we are seeing indeed uh we are seeing a a very high score for the national rally and 2019 it was 2334 so of course uh leaping to over 30% is a is a very good number indeed for for the for the party a very good result for them and James have you got a sense there of what uh party activists want this to lead to in terms of a shake up in French politics you talked about the sort of European Dimension already but what impact do you think this might have on on the French national political scene based on people you've been talking to yes well one I was speaking earlier on to an MP uh of the national rally he was telling me that he believes that of course a big result here today would be a very clear message he put it like that he said you know it's going to be a very clear message to those in power uh including here in France uh that these ideas of you know nationalist rightwing ideas are uh very much in the lead today in Europe and that H he says you know they will have to stop ignoring us this is what he said he said that yes it was a message to obviously to Emanuel maon a message to the French government uh and that uh uh well they were expecting to see changes also saying that uh it was a clear message when it comes to the structure of Europe themselves one telling me that uh they wanted to make it make it very clear that for them uh Europe needed to be a f Federation of uh Nations State Sovereign Naes States and not a super uh you know United States of Europe and well for them this result is a pretty clear message that this is this is once again what they say but this is what uh they believe the public wants and of course it is a very a very strong result you've got to realize that uh uh the score of national rally is double the score of the second party which is you know renew the party of Emanuel Macon so yes this is an electoral victory for the national rally really interesting James one thing you can tell and the guests in the studio arancha Mark Jeanie and certainly Arman as well from previous election campaigns you know where the cameras are where the journalists head to behind in the background that's where they expect a result I want to see what the situation is at the Renaissance party the party of Emanuel macron Valerie AER and let's go to CLA pakan tonight well I'm not detecting any joy in in the room there was clapping as those results came out those estimated results came out but there's certainly a feeling of disappointment what we're looking at in these estimated results that valer her list has 15.2% so we're looking at around 14 we're going to come straight back to you CLA but this is going to be a busy night we're going to go straight to back to the nation headquarters this is the leader in Europe 28-year-old leader of the party Jordan B to go beyond the 30% threshold the French people have spoken and [Applause] clearly we welcome this result humbly we know what it means and we know the responsibility that now weighs on us people fought from the very bottom all the way to the top of the Republic and tonight we have heard a request for Change and also a way forward this is a clear message sent to Emanuel mcon to European leaders and it shows that our country is determined to see the European Union change to move towards more democracy more protection more respect for the people of [Music] Europe tonight there is hope in France and it is only just [Applause] beginning through this historically high score that has been given to thetion French people have expressed how attached they are to French identity to French security to French sovereignty and French Prosperity through their support to a Europe of Nations the French people tonight have said that they want to take control of immigration policy they want the French state to be able to control every square inch of France defending their jobs Industries purchasing power and our Farmers these priorities are those that will be the priorities of the MEPS that will be working alongside me in line with what Marine Leen and our own MPS in France will be doing there is a never before seen gap between the presidential party and the opposition party this is a clear rejection of the policy that has been implemented by Emanuel mcon and his government the president of the French Republic must hear the message that has been sent tonight first of all he we must no longer push forward with de-indexing pensions increasing Energy prices this summer our social model and also the Asylum and immigration pact which will ramp up spreading migrants around the communes in France Emanuel mcon tonight is a weakened president no longer has a parliamentary majority and no longer has less leverage within the European Parliament if he does not wish to continue down a cold a saac he must respect the spirit of the institutions we are asking him to take full measure of this political message to respect the French people and to organize legislative [Applause] elections this defeat this never before seen defeat from majority party marks the end of a cycle and day one of the post macron period that we must Build Together to the militants of I would like to thank you for your support and to all French people who have honored us through their support who been giving who have given us the responsibility to prepare for the future I would like to thank you myself and Marine Leen have Ambitions that go well beyond that of a single political party we wish to bring together all French people all French people who wish to allow France to get back to a place of hope I would like to invite all French people this evening no matter where they're from to join us and to come work with us the path towards renewal will be a demanding one but we are ready to lead the nation down that path longate the Republican long of France [Applause] okay well uh let's go back to the headquarters there where Jordan bardell was just speaking with our senior reporter James Andre who is listening in on that speech so James uh preparing for the Post macron era a pretty clear message there yeah very clear very clear message and in fact what Jordan bellaa has asked is for uh Emanuel MC to dissolve the National Assembly and hold new elections here in France so that was uh indeed quite a strong demand there and in you know said this to Cheers of his militants but what he really said is you know there's a Wind of Change here uh in France this is only the beginning he said you know it's the end of a cycle he says that the French people have very clearly expressed the fact that they want uh a change and he says that yes this change according to him will come from the national rally quite clearly uh saying that the ambition is is to uh you know take the El Palace in the next presidential election I mean obviously uh the national rally was is it's one of the Ambitions and is quite clear but yes today what we're seeing is that uh uh yes they want to leverage this European you know Victory on the domestic stage here in France and what he says is that it's a very clear message of rejection of Emanuel macron's policies and that that message needs to be heard by the French leader but also leaders across Europe very interesting James and worth saying just to remind people that there are 81 seats to be taken here in France and in fact we have 720 seats in all but Alman we're also getting the second set of results coming in that's right so these are we saw the the main uh parties first of all so in the second set of uh estimates we have the Republicans that's the conservatives on 7.2 uh% so considering that you know the Socialists did actually fairly well tonight that's not a a particularly strong performance uh by the Republicans reconquest the farri party which is part of the same political family as the national rally 5 and a half% so just barely making the threshold the greens though I think if this is confirmed this would be a big story Gavin because they look to be below the 5% uh threshold that you need to get uh to get seats in the European Parliament and then of course animal welfare and Communists not making that 5% as we expected but I think the greens is a very interesting result uh estimate I should say sorry um early predicted result uh which is going to be something that we should uh we should keep a close eye on okay so a reminder of those results tonight was seeing for the national rally 31.5% double that of renewal Emanuel macron's party you can see valer AER who is the leader in Europe 15.2% there was much speculation much talk that this may be the reality the dominant Force being the far for those seats in Europe it was very close back in 2019 about a percentage point in it when the national rally won on about 23% socialist 14% And the far left left France on B France Ines 8.7% as Alman said the greens not getting a seat that is a significant moment I want to go back to the renew party let's go to CLA packan we cut you off earlier I hope we can go back to the renew party HQ now and just get a sense of the mood and what people are saying to you there CLA well it's a mixture of relief and disappointment relief for Valerie AA and her list has not come in third place but disappointment there wasn't really much of a difference and she almost was in third place her and the list run by rfel man of the socialism and his party plus they are only just behind them less than a percentage Point difference and this group this renew group had up until in The Last 5 Years there were 23 Renaissance so this is Emanuel MC's party 23 MEPS were sitting in the European Parliament now we're looking at more like 14 so this was expected to a certain extent we saw that in the polls Valerie a having a hard time making herself heard overshadowed to a certain extent by President Manu mom but also by his prime minister Gabrielle atel him being very involved in the campaign the strategy one imagines was to try and boost her campaign but actually looked in many ways to have the opposite effect because she was overshadowed and found it hard to get her voice her so yeah I would round up the feeling in this room here at the headquarters of valer a as a mixture between relief and disappointment CLA thank you relief and disappointment tonight Harman yeah absolutely and uh of course uh disappointment but at least the renew party of maon didn't come in third as uh CL pan just told us so that's something at least but I'd like to get some reactions on that from our guests J kamu and arancha Gonzalez Leia perhaps you you first aranta what do you make of the what we're seeing from the French estimate so far well first is there is two elections in the in the European election there is the the the debate how this debate will translate into the European policies and obviously we have heard none of that for now and how these European elections play in domestic policies and in domestic political landscape uh we've heard all about that uh it's all been a national translation for now but I would say let's wait and see I would be watching two things uh in the results that uh in the uh preliminary preliminary uh estimates that we have I'll be watching to see if the greens get over the 5% and I will be watching who is second and who is third in number of seats in the European Parliament because this is still an open question and it is worth saying you know this is not the India elections where the poing results are very different from the realities it often quite accurate it's worth saying um also just to your sense as an outsider looking in a Rancher but with a socialist heart what you're thinking about Rafael gutman's campaign for the Socialist here in France well he's done a very uh very positive very cond do very Solutions oriented campaign and maybe this is um he's been for now from what we can see kind of rewarded by uh the voters who have seen in him a Solutions oriented ran speak of the devil Rafael grman the Socialist leader is speaking life I would also like to thank the millions and millions of French people who expressed their opinion through these elections no matter who they are I'd like to thank the millions of French people who voted for us for a European ecological power I would like to thank all of the volunteers who've been part of this campaign based on optimism Joy enjoyment the love of Europe of democracy of solidarity of the environment and [Applause] Justice I would like to tell them that we will live up to that trust we will fight we will fight for Europe a democratic Europe Sovereign Europe a feminist Europe a humanist Europe an environmental Europe and a social Europe [Applause] I am proud of what we've achieved but I do not feel that we should celebrate this evening the far right accounts for 40% in France right now all around Europe we are seeing a wave we are witnessing a wave that is shaking the foundations of our ins institutions we are at a Tipping Point a historic Tipping Point war is once again raging on our continent the far right is leading in a number of European countries across our institutions enemies of Europe are going to set about unmaking our shared treasure that is European democracy we will fight against we will fight them in Europe and we will fight them in [Applause] France so long as we are here we will go straight to our goals there will be no European immigration law voted alongside the r National we never play their game we fight against the far right every day our responsibility is now immense in Europe and in France our responsibility is now to fight against that feeling that is spreading the feeling that the far rights rise to power is inevitable we will never give over to that [Applause] right now we are in a situation that no one would have expected at the beginning of the [Applause] campaign at this moment we are in a situation that calls each and every one of us to take a look at history we have a responsibility now to fight the fight so we're not here to celebrate what we're here to do is get ready for the next step together we will work work and work some more that is what we must [Music] [Applause] do we must show what this communication based campaign has not been able to show by that I mean an alternative a powerful enthusiastic joyful alternative to [Music] nationalism what we will bring to the four is a new political space and we'll do this in France and in Europe This will be on a visceral attachment to democracy to freedom to the environment to [Applause] solidarity and it is that political space that will stop the far right from taking power this political space is a different way to go about politics being open being honest being transparent not allowing lies not allowing [Applause] violence hello so this evening this evening we we are faced with the beginning of a path we call on all citizens who believe in equality and solidarity who believe in the environment who believe at the from the bottom of their hearts in the European project we must call on all of those citizens to join us we must work together we must work europe-wide and we must get to work here in France we must continue to Foster the hope that was born during this campaign that is our duty and that is our life jacket so I'd like you to see today as a step in a fight that is bigger than each and every one of us in any case you can count on me there will be no single second during which we rest democracy is our greatest wealth democracy is something that dies when it is not defended when it is not given life when it is not supported for too many decades we have just benefited from the legacy of democracy but now tonight we need democracies that fight for themselves we will be Democrats who fight [Applause] and we will answer those questions we will answer to the suffering to the anger that explains and feeds the farri wave words will not be enough now we need to act each and every one of us needs to get to work needs to show that France has not given up on the humanist ideal and has not given up on the Republican ideal or the European ideal we will be the rebirth of that France we will be the rebirth of France so rapael glesman former journalist former film director me talking about leading the party of the Socialist in Europe and really interesting to just put this into comparison for a second because we have Ramon National the national rally of the far right tonight 31.5% of the vote and this is about a victory for the second place we had renew Emanuel macron's party the president on 15% half of that so trouncing by the Ron National and then in third place the Socialists now I want to go back to arancha a key phrase here used by Rafael Gman quote we are not here to celebrate we're here for the next step about Clinging On right now yeah I mean I think he's um he's putting the alternative to what uh bardel has put uh to uh to France he's put the alternative and he's been very clear about what the alternative uh could be in a very sobering way I think this is the right thing to do at this precise moment in time I don't think it's a question to celebrate given the numbers it's a question to put what the alternative would be in Europe and obviously both of them are looking uh not just at Europe but they are also looking at what the choice would be for the next uh election next presidential election in this country in France and K did you get the impression that uh glesman was not only setting himself up as an alternative to the far right but also to maon to some extent or what was your read on that uh my read is that of course he is uh telling the French that is an alternative to both the president and to the to the extreme right but what strikes me is that he has some reasons to celebrate uh given that he started from quite a low point at the start of the campaign you know achieves more than 14% so that's pretty good result and nevertheless he seems to be very much worried very much worried about uh the fact that the the national rally has been around for more than 50 years now and he says we need to fight vational R that's okay but he also probably things uh what is the solution because uh we have seen this party rise and rise and Rise election after election all kind of Elections and we still do not have the capacity to stop it I mean we didn't find the uh I would say the political Hardware that's able to stop this R and this is very worrying I do not mean that the outcome of a presidential election would be the same it's a totally different to two totally distinct elections but nevertheless 31% is huge yeah Mark you're listening to that just to zone out a second you followed French European election results over the years just give us what what are the notable things here you going over the decade or more and how it's fragmented itself and how it looks tonight well clearly let's remind our view that the national rally has won the last three European elections it won in 2014 it won barely but it still won the last time around and tonight they triumphed so obviously there's a difference of scale but as was saying the national rally has been doing very well in those elections and it's now doing very well in national elections and even local elections which shows that the party is now really part of French politics it was a French party now is clearly front and center and it's very interesting to see its leader openly defy Emanuel macron saying you know after such a drubbing there's only one thing you can do call for SNAP elections just call for elections and we we are going to probably listen to the response of M I just want to uh highlight that it's very unusual for the president to speak out on Election night because he was obviously not running his prime minister was not running it also shows that they chose someone valer they probably felt that she's not up to the job too late for that uh but clearly this is a very very important moment in French politics Mark I just want to comment on this uh slide that we have uh so it's it's actually now 5.2% estimated for the greens so we have to uh recalibrate what we said earlier about the greens possibly losing there let's go straight to the LF the Sam France and B party man on auy it's leader in Europe is speaking now the shared list proposed by newz they opened the gate to the far right but tonight we have not given up the Fantastic campaign that we undertook together enabled us indeed to push back on the exstension rate in many places and many parts of society especially young people who turned out to vote especially young people and the poorest areas and every time they turn out to vote we will push back the far right we are fighting for the young people in this [Applause] country oh right now preliminary result results show that we are up versus 2019 when we received 6% of the vote tonight we are stronger than we were in 2019 and in the future tomorrow in the European Parliament we will have more MEPS to fight for purchasing power for peace in Gaza and to protect our jobs some people would have preferred that we simply disappeared from these elections but we are still here and I want to tell the millions of people who voted for us tonight that we will still be here tomorrow this result is the result of a full campaign on purchasing power on jobs on agriculture and also a campaign for a ceasefire in Gaza this campaign was waged together we fought together in a positive way a positive way because we thought of the future of young people okay so fourth place FR inam talking about how they are still there they are still in the mix and they are representing the people you saw we heard from via a short while ago via pel at the party headquarters talking about the pro Palestinian movement and support there was was key to that arancha and johie I want to get both of your thoughts first of all on the far left here in France and do you see this as a a key moment for them clearly you talked about the greens a moment ago and saying actually we might see them without a seat um where do you see the far left right now no I mean uh first on the greens uh because the greens are not on the far left uh the greens uh in France are uh a separate uh political force from the social Democrats in my own country the greens are mostly integrated within the Social Democrat in fact many countries you have often like alliances the Netherlands at the moment both together yeah correct so one of the lessons from these figures that we are looking is that had the two gone together to this election the result would have been better so there is a also a bit of a lesson to learn uh from from the figures that are on the table um and I mean what I take uh from what we've been hearing is that um there is a very clear narrative on the extremes especially on the extreme right the the the message is very clear but there is also an alternative to that which is equally clear and which is also on the table now and it's possible and we are seeing other countries uh we just seeing what's happening in Finland for example where the uh um extreme right party has lost a tremendous political space because there is another party uh more Centrist whether it's Christian Democrat or Social Democrat that is making this alternative pitch at a time when citizens are a little bit um under a lot of pressure because the the sequence of Crisis that citizens have had uh to face uh in those last 5 years has been been phenomenal so I think the next period will be there is two options on the table nationalist Solutions or more European Solutions and let the European citizens decide okay well let's go to back to party headquarters where Manor auri was speaking just a few moments ago uh the head of the far-left unbow France party which has done better than it did in the 2019 election and verica beel was listening to that speech so quite an energetic and buoyant atmosphere it seemed like via how was it over there yes Armen it's uh pretty Lively I hope you can hear me uh behind all the chanting but there was absolutely uh an explosion of Joy here at the France unbal party headquarters when those uh projections came out man noi has just finished speaking and as you can hear her supporters uh are in full force uh thrilled with that news um well she took aim at president M's politics in Her speech there uh saying that tonight shows a defeat of his values and said that it's now evident that the country wants to turn the page on the meall era um she thanked her her her supporters and her party for a formidable campaign that's what she said saying that every time we mobilize uh we we get it done um and that now we will be numerous in the the European parl and there was huge screams uh of support when she made her stance very clear on uh calling for a ceasefire in Gaza and how uh that must be that that remains uh a key tenant uh of this party uh and she also ended by thanking everybody for voting for youth but there's absolutely a sense of of vibrancy here uh last uh election back in 2019 France and bad had about 6.3% of the seats it's just under 9% now so it is it is it is a bump for them it is seen as a success and and it really you can see that vibrancy and that Joy here at uh at the party headquarters thank you I just want to mention another Point verica thank you I don't want to talk about something first with Jean kamu and get your thoughts straight after Mark which is we are in a scenario where for every year for the last few elections over the last decade or more now we've seen a shrinking of the center still the dominant force and it's the ep the center right that have been the big party and in France we're seeing a a real disappearance of their sent to right and particularly um when we look at the conservatives what's your take there that's a very big problem in this country I mean we used to have a mainstream conservative right uh which was strong a party which was in power for many years and they have lost votes both to uh the presidential party since 2017 and they seem to lose votes to the National Ray uh the uh poll said uh before the election that one out of five voter uh one of out of five conservative voter would uh would cast his vote for badela which is really huge what I do not understand is why this country does not have a strong mainstream conservative party because obviously that's part of this solution if you want to stop big streams that's part of this solution uh is it lack of leadership is it is it the fact that this part is only an apparatus I mean they still old many cities uh Regional councils uh but I mean when it comes to National politics it seems that they are I mean not a marginal Force but I mean at 7% you obviously do not represent much so they have many many reasons to I mean think about that and maybe renew both their leadership and also the way they look at the extreme right try to I mean dissen themselves from the national rally and not seem to run after the policies of the national rally well where have they gone have they all gone to the far right where are they going to well probably uh the Assumption was that some of them went to Emanuel mcon uh when he was elected and the last European election and the rest went to the far right I mean if you add up the results of the far right in the 2019 European elections you had 27.5% tonight it's 37% so 10 more per and most of them uh probably came from the conservative party F zavier bami who was already uh the uh head of the list back in 2019 according to everyone he did a good job at the European Parliament a serious campaign uh he probably campaigned better than last time end result he performed worse than last time so they had 88.5% now projected result 7.2% after uh droing at the last presidential election so there is a major crisis of the conservative party uh now there's a glimmer of hope uh on the other side the mainstream party the Socialist there's a glimmer of hope because they scored 14% when they scored 14% in the 2014 election it was considered a major defeat by then president frand so it tells you how you measure things very differently and Mark reconquest so that that is on 5.5% at the moment in estimates that does contain some former mainstream conservative voters aren't they I mean they actually have a sort of uh something in common with some of them with Eric Zur well clearly the ideology is very similar to the national uh rally the biggest difference uh being that they are maybe even more extreme when it comes to immigration is Islam and so on but they're more mainstream when it comes to the economy they're much more free market oriented so this could appeal uh to voters on the right who actually are hardening on immigration Islam terrorism and so on and so forth but do feel that you know lowering taxes is a better option this is what offered them they were also on the brink of the 5% according to our estimates they managed to survive this was really survival for them because Eric Z who was their leader at the presidential election didn't perform as well and they if they didn't make the 5% cut tonight they probably would have shut the party or uh merge with another one mark thank you let's get a comparison just bring you up to date a then and now here's Catalina then now gav let's compare results between the last elections in 2019 and now six parties in France in 2019 received a score greater than 5% which is necessary to Senate representatives to the European Parliament here are the final results from the ministry of interior of 2019 in first position liens and B's National rally with 23% of the vote as they have been winning the European election in the past three years uh in second position in the ballot M formerly known as La Republic in on Marsh with 2242 per of the votes coming in third place uh the Europe e France is green party with 13.48% % of the votes then we see number four five and six who scored above 5% Republican and the Socialist Party and plus uh then here are the seats that were won in the French parties for the European Parliament in 200 19 let's take a look at that graph uh where we could see that tied in uh with uh National rally and La Republic Mar on Renaissance with 23 seats in the European Parliament these results after brexit then comes the green party with 133% uh 13 seats in the European Parliament these were the parties with the majority of seats in the European Parliament in 2019 then now 2024 the preliminary results that we have during this year's elections here's 2019 will compare as predicted Jordan badela and Marine leen's National rally scoring major gains and seats in the European Parliament winning uh 31.5 5% of the vote this year while mcon Centrist Renaissance party uh as predicted as well lost seats and votes in the European elections with 15.2% of the vote here in France uh and then falling behind and almost tied with maron's Renaissance party in third place the Socialist with 14% then the farle with 8.7% and falling uh slightly behind a 5.2% the greens so these were were that the five parties so far that gain about 5% of the vote necessary to send Representatives into the European Parliament turning a page it seems into the M era here in Cina thank you it is a busy evening musical chair tonight a big S lots of guests coming in we're going to say thank you to arancha before you go um we can't not say goodbye because I know you have to go elsewhere but a word tonight what you're expecting from Spain and your old government as former foreign min there what you're hoping for or worried about so I think uh the results are T the trend is towards a slight win of the conservatives but not a major um you know not a major earthquake uh basically the conservatives are consolidating the former uh votes of uh the Liberals that have disappeared they've now Consolidated in a one force conservatives pretty neck to neck uh with the um social Democrats I'll be watching with a lot of attention what happening in Catalonia because remember we still got a government in Catalonia to compose and what it looks like is the independentist forces uh especially that of P demon is not is not trending very well let's look at those results in a Pon former Catan president somewhere in Exile we think he's in the Pyrenees at the moment he may be coming back and hesty agreed is this a referendum on Pedro Sanchez well I think the conservatives have tried to make this a referendum on Pedro Sanchez which is always is a very difficult thing to do is a bit of a gamble uh because if they did so the results are not really showing that Pedro Sanchez lost the referendum arancha great to talk to you I think he has one of the most favorable nicknames in Europe they call him seor Guapo Mr Handsome arancha Gonzalez Leia great and have a great evening tonight thank you yeah thank you so much to arancha Gonzalez Le just want to bring you a couple of very quick bits of uh reactions that we're getting as we've been talking a lot about the situation in brance the head of the uh Republicans the conservative party the lead candidate here saying this result is the start of a very long uh journey to bring the to revive uh the the right so um I think sort of a reading between the lines clearly he's not having a great night and Mari Tusan the uh lead candidate for uh the ecologists or the greens as they used to be she says this is a bitter defeat uh which opens the door to all kinds of risks so that was from Mar Tuan there although we should say they're now projected to have more than 5% so they should be in the European Parliament uh let's go to CLA pan who is our reporter at the headquarters of uh Renaissance the party of Emanuel macron and CLA uh you're standing by with a guest I [Music] believe yeah I'm standing here with with it shanon San you were 25th on the list of Valerie A's list remember of course of Emanuel M's party renal you said to me you didn't think you had much chance of winning and tonight you haven't become a member of the European Parliament because only 14 seats for One by that list but you still campaigned hard tell me why did you campaign so hard even though you knew that you had very little chance of winning tonight because actually when I saw like the first polls uh when I would like when they wanted to brand for European election I saw that the extreme right and the like the in the polls like the extreme right was very high and at the like at the the beginning of my uh political commitment there is a fight against exem right and I cannot admit that in my country and at the European level now the extreme right was so high so that's why it was like really important for me to Brand in this campaign to run like for the European Parliament and to try to convince French people that we need need Europe in our daily life you know when I wanted to commit in politics and to and to be elected that's why because of Emanuel macron because our president is a pro European because Valerie a our candidate is deeply Pro European that's why I wanted to commit in this political campaign of course tonight the result is not satisfying but it's not like it's not uh something that I would like to complain about I would like to move on now of course we have to listen what French people want to tell by voting today and with this results but now we need to move on you know renunciation is not in the DNA of our political party we need to listen to French people but now we need to move on collectively and I cannot admit not admit at all that the extreme right is so high in our country and at the European level we're seeing Jordan badela getting more than a of the vote tonight what went wrong in val aa's campaign she's got fewer seats than the party got 2019 what went wrong and what could have gone best you know in this election you have some political parties that decided to make this campaign speaking about National subjects when I see lais they spoke about the conflict between Israel and Gaza and when I saw like Jordan B and the extreme right they only speak about National topics they don't want to settle and to be in Europe this is what I would like French people to understand that now that Shan Barda has more than 30 seats at the European Parliament that means that the French voice at the European Parliament will be more important and this is something that we must we must all complain about and I am deeply convinced that now that we have about like 14 seats uh according the first uh Falls and estimations we will need to work even harder in order to be able uh that the French voice will be listened at the European Parliament what are you going to do and are you optimistic I am deeply optimistic because French president Emanuel macron is a pro European and in our political party the DNA is always to listen to French people and to try to answer to their concern so of course we need to admit that the that the score tonight is a huge disappointment for a political party and that there is like a signal which is sent uh to the president Emanuel macron so we need to listen to this concern and now we need to act so of course we need to move on like in a different way we cannot move on like as if Jan B scores was not so high so this is a wake up PO in a way do you think that President Emanuel maon and even more so his prime minister Gabrielle atal overshadowed Valerie AA during her campaign not at all and some media has asked me the question before valer was on all our uh like paper and she she she participated to a lot of debates during this campaign she was you know a lot of people try to understand why do the president Emanuel and the Prime Minister Gabriel atal were so involved in this campaign because as Emanuel mcon told the hour is really dangerous dous for us I mean Europe is not something which is granted we need to fight for Europe and that's why that's why because war is our continent that's why we needed to have the political um all the political uh members I need to go back to the studio now Shannon saan thank you so much for your time Shannon saan thank you very much CLA thank you we are getting results through the early predicted results for the European parament as a a whole we're going to give you them to you in a moment first of all I want to go to the National rally headquarters um let's see what's going on there right now oh in fact we can see the European Parliament breakdown so this is a significant moment we are seeing the European People's Party the biggest party the center right conservatives 181 seats that is up from 176 seats in the parliament as of uh 2019 and then we go to the second biggest groups the Socialists and Democrats they are down from 2019 from 139 seats to 135 we have renew Europe of Emanuel macro and the Widder centrists and liberals in Europe uh they are down as well to 82 102 seats they had back in 2019 now let's go across first to the left 34 down from 37 and now we look at the hard right and the far right so European conservatives and reformists up by two seats from 69 in 2019 to 71 here's the group with Marine Leen and those like here at VAs on the far right from 49 seats in 2019 up to 62 seats so a bigger Force as predicted and the non-aligned which does include some hard right as well the lights of fides party in Hungary from 51 seats 51 seats now they did have 61 seats back in 2019 so a drop of 10 seats there yeah and as we thought uh gav quite a significant drop for the greens on the last European Parliament that's of course being confirmed by results in in bip partial results in France but let's go now to National rally headquarters where fabis leeri is there uh he is one of the top candidates on the list for uh the national rally in this uh European election uh so your reactions Mr leeri to this partial result yes good evening uh my first reaction is that uh the result is very clear it's Crystal Clear that um French citizens reject the current policies implemented by the European Union and by macon's government but French citizens have also expressed hope hope hope that uh the policies implemented in Europe and France could change soon so this is also uh a trust in theal which means that we have to be very modest because we we cannot disappoint French citizens so that's my first reaction fabis you know you caused some consternation amongst other parties a former frontex officer working for the heart of the EU in the past I would like to know your sense of the dynamic this point there is talk of Marine Le Pen wanting to see a a super group on the far R emerging a new name between the European conservatives reformists and the identity and de democracy group trying to pull in aure Georgia Maloney what do you want to see europe-wide in these elections well actually um what we know is that in many uh other uh European countries um political parties which are close to ours close to assem national uh have scored very high so they have very good results which means that uh there is expectation in Europe all of our across Europe uh that three nations can cooperate together that we can have less bureaucracy more freedom less European commission and that uh there are specific topics such as migration uh the green deal um but also uh energy uh policy um and uh in general Economic Development uh these are the topics that matter for European citizens and these are policies where we can naal and other political parties uh in the European Parliament we can cooperate together so we will see uh if there is uh in the future uh one big group or if they are different groups but anyway what is for sure is that uh we can vote uh together uh and we can have very likely um a kind of uh Power to to block uh the most toxic policies that we want to block from the European Commission in the future a lot of those in the center right believe your policies are toxic and and devices I mean just give me your sense of how you see yourselves briefly we have about a minute to talk to you on this but are you going to be a disruptor within Europe working within the system or do you want to see you know widescale changes what is it at the heart of of what you want to change I guess the migration policy what what we want to change is of course the the migration policy because for the time being what uh what we see and I have witnessed myself is that the European commission uh wanted simply to to to let the borders in and saying that uh anyway uh we need to to to legalize uh illegal immigration because this is the the result of the Asylum uh and migration pact but we also want to change the green deal because what we see is that French citizens but also European citizens in other countries they suffer and what we see also is that Europe is lagging behind if we compare Europe to the United States to other countries for example the the the ban of uh combustion engine been uh by 2035 so this is beneficial for uh is beneficial to to China is car industry and we want a Europe that can serve the European interest and of course we want to serve the interest of French citizens so I think that uh these are the areas it's not limited to migration it's also about economics it's also uh about this kind of punishment uh that we are suffering from uh when we have the the green deal in place so these are only some topics where for sure uh we can have a huge Alliance in Europe okay thank you so much fabis leeran let's come back quickly to je Camu our expert in the studio who has to leave unfortunately but just very briefly jeie uh what's your impression of the whole European Parliament as it's looking to you today there is a rightward shift isn't there overall there is a rightward shift uh the the tend to block retains majority but I mean in 2004 when Europe opened the door to the uh countries of of Eastern Europe I do not think that the people in charge had foreseen that today uh the most important political people in Europe would be Mrs Maloney and Mr Orban and the Polish conservatives and and the national rally so it's really a big shift you know we there was a time after the second world war when the mainstream conservative sorry to interrupt we're go straight to the French President thank you for joining us here's Emanuel M tonight sorry today you were called upon to vote in the European elections in Mainland France territories and abroad the lesson here is clear this is not a good result for the party that supports Europe including the majority party farri parties over the last years have been opposed to all sorts of progress brought about by Europe protecting our borders supporting our Farmers supporting Ukraine these parties have gained ground across the continent in France there are nearly 40% of cast votes I have always believed Europe United and strong is a good thing for France this is a situ situation that is a concern for me demagogues and nationalists On The Rise is bad for our nation is bad for Europe and it is bad for the place of France in Europe and in the world and I say this at the very time that we just celebrated with the entire world D-Day in Normandy and in a very short time we will be hosting the rest of the world for the Olympic and Par Olympic Games yes the far right is bad for the French people and for the French Nation at the end of the day I was not able to just pretend nothing has happen there is a feverish tone in the political debate in our country recently chaos that is a concern to you it's shocking to you and I will not give it any ground right now the challenges that we face external threats climate change and its consequences and threats against our own Unity these threats require being clear in our debates we need to be ambitious for our country and we need to respect every French person this is why after Consulting the relevant parties in line with the 12th Article of our constitution I have decided to give you again the choice of our parliamentary future through the vote tonight I am dissolving the assembly nation in just a few minutes I will be signing the decree that will call the French people on the 30th of June to legislative elections in the 7th of July for the second round this is a grave and heavy decision but it is a decision full of trust I trust you my fellow citizens I trust in the French people's ability to make the right choice for itself and for future Generations I trust in our democracy I wish to give the vote to the French people that is the Republican spirit this is far better than any Arrangements we need to cut through the chaos I trust in France France is always known how to come together faced with difficult circumstances to unite rather than retreating and relying on demagogues in the coming days I will be speaking about the future of the nation I have heard your message I've heard your concerns and I will give answers the future uniting going forward will continue to be driving forces in this political project today is a democratic Reckoning I am the only political leader to have no need to run for office in 2027 so I wish you to be sure of one thing my only ambition is to be useful to this country that we all love my calling is to serve you I know that I Can Count On You voting on the 30th and the 7th France needs a clear majority to act together being French means to live up to the necessity of the times knowing what is behind a vote acting responsibly no matter what what I mean by that is writing history rather than being the victim of History the time is now long live the republic Long Live France up up okay so this is a bombshell of news this a his historic moment let's just recap what a Manuel macron has said he said quote the rise of nationalists is a danger for our nation Europe he went on to talk about how I cannot pretend nothing has happened he then said I've decided to call Snap elections and with it he has dissolved the National Assembly I want to briefly introduce the guests who are we're delighted to have in the studio with us Fabian Keller who is from the renew party former Strasburg mayor we also have Thomas pelan caran a candidate for the Socialist Party with a new seat with the Socialist tonight in Parliament we also have Jean CLA Tri French Economist part of the former president of the European Central Bank Mark uh Mark pelman is with us our France Affairs analyst start with you because Fabian as we heard from Emanuel macron a moment ago you took a sharp intake of breath that was big news uh yes it was one hypothesis uh that was discussed about uh due to the fact that our National Assembly is blocked has very strong difficulties in deciding in voting laws and it's of of course important for the country to be able to decide to have a majority uh the deception of the president concerning the results of the election uh has been explained by him so it's his decision I think he's profoundly you know uh uh breathing with France and uh thinking about the future of our country this decision was taken uh with um previous thoughts he has probably discussed with his closer counselors so um I think it's an important moment for France but F K do you think it's the right decision or not because some people are going to say this is just giving Victory to the r National Rally or at least giving them the the opportunity to build on the momentum from this European election by by by doing that it's never you know it's always the right way to do when you are in difficulties to give the voice to the to people this is a basic principle of democracy of course as you say the situation is particular because because the results of the national naal is high of extreme right even more because of the list of Recon but uh the people in the Democracy are always right and we will see on a national basis that is more you know directly connected to people if the vote remain the same and uh I don't know when those elections are going to take place but probably you know very important debates June 30th and July 7th so it's very June 30th and July 7th but the people are then you know it's a direct election of people who have to explain what they are going to do to their citizens something we are really lacking in the European election where it's at the national level so it's an impossible direct debate with the people for uh the uh the deputy in the National Assembly it's much more on a local uh Council basis so I hope it will you know make it possible for people to discuss their difficulties because I could see that during the campaign people are feeling that they are in great difficulties and uh hopefully uh choose a reasonable uh National Assembly at the end Thomas from the Socialist Party I mentioned at the start with a new seat but listening to that news you know we felt in this room that it was surprising to suddenly call that tell me what you think the factors at play are here what's causing so many people even in in bigger numbers at the European elections to go for the far right um just to clarify why think so I'm not a member of the Socialist Party of PL which is the the party the Coalition just to be uh clear the party of Rafael Gman with in yes indeed um yes indeed so I mean Europe elections are about Europe and what mcon has been doing for several month is to nationalize that election and he's just done that again in a way that we'll see what happens but uh maybe in the future we'll see that uh it was a bit Reckless uh to say the least um Emanuel macron has been making gift to the far right at least since December since the migration law that it did pass with the support of the assal and just a few minutes ago he gave to the ass monal what they've been asking for uh which is a snap election um so that's um I mean is the president he was elected uh that's his choice uh now we're facing responsibility both in France and in Europe uh which is to make sure that the farai does not come back in power uh I mean they were kicked out of power all over Europe 80 years ago uh they should never be coming back and we've been seeing the cist making alliances with them time and again in Flanders in Sweden in Finland and in the Netherlands and I mean more than ever now is the time to fight the far right night and day every day of the week to to kick them out of power and yet the resemble National the national rally say we don't use the fword fascist we've kicked out the afd the alternative for deutan from the identity and democracy they call themselves a party representing the people they talk about migration but they're trying to clearly shift themselves away of the father of marine Leen and the family Legacy that they clearly have um sure I mean I mean the far right have had cacity to deceive people for a very long time um I mean in political science because I'm a researcher first and foremost we call that a casual party they're going to say whatever they want uh and then they're going to do something else um I mean Marine Leen a few years ago wanted to leave the Euro zone now she wants to say in it um I think it was two months ago Marine Leen wanted to leave the European energy Market B changed his mind I mean those are major things and they're just you know changing their mind um you know on a whim depending on on the opinion pool so obviously uh when you have a party that is dishonest and that um you know has the capacity to deceive people um yeah I mean it's easier to to fool um a few a few electors of which you know they I mean they care very little about them uh but those electors uh of theal a lot of them are angry uh there are good reasons uh to be uh to be angry especially today um and we social Democrats as we did in the past uh need to be uh able to come up with a project um we need to be able to listen to the people and to be the alternative to the far right like we were decades ago and like we are today and Je how surprised are you by this decision to hold an early election I am amazed absolutely amazed and uh I have to say that what I don't know exactly what's behind I hope very much that the president thinks that with the shock of this European election uh The Campaign which is extra only short now I understand it's a matter of 3 weeks before the first round of this election will be extraordinary active Dynamic with the idea that his own party which has been deeply touched hit on this election will regain the energy which is necessary perhaps together with others that are in the Republican side if I may in order for the Republicans quote unquote to win the next legislative election we'll see what happens I hope I hope it is not the idea that we will put in power the extreme right in order for them to prove that they are incapable to govern I I cannot imagine that it is the tactics so I hope very much that my first assumption is the right one I think you've encapsulated the size of the moment the gamble that Emanuel macron's taking and the shock within the studio that we all sense the surprise moment let's go to the headquarters of the Rena party and let's talk to CLA pakan CLA um since that moment just tell us how many people that's caught by surprise there were gks in the room when Emanuel mcon announced that he was dissolving Parliament and that fresh elections would take place on the 30th of June for the first round the 7th of July for the second that's just around the corner I've been speaking to people in the room here telling me that they're now going to have to go out and start campaigning and they don't have all that much time to do it and no people I've been speaking to were not expecting this they did tell me that when they heard we all heard a little early on in the evening that Emanuel mron would be speaking tonight they were expecting something because first of all give you some context it's very rare for a French president to speak on the night on the evening of European election so the fact that he was going to speak people started saying well maybe he's going to say something but Parliament that really caught the room by surprise [Music] here Claire thank you I just want to just step back a second we've had this moment where we're talking about the ele the desolution of of parliament the snap elections Mark Perman what does that mean what are we going to see change now what's up for grabs everything is up for grabs I mean we had two earthquakes tonight one was expected the national rally trouncing all the other parties ging double the votes of the following parties and uh we had an inkling when we learned just before 8 that the president would address the French that doesn't happen on Election night so we probably thought something was up that maybe there would be an alliance in Parliament with the conservatives who scored badly so maybe but this clearly is uh really a big big uh surprise really a major shock it doesn't happen very often in French Politics the last time Iran was 1997 say last century Jac shiak he called for SNAP elections because he thought he would gain a stronger majority well he made a big mistake because he lost that majority and had to live with a socialist uh prime minister uh Emanuel macron is also answering directly what Jordan bardel has said the leader of the national rally has said for weeks and said a few minutes before the address of the French President we are now calling on you Mr macron to dissolve the National Assembly to listen what the french said tonight and and the president said well I've heard what the french said tonight I'm dissolving the National Assembly Mar so Mark there's a real possibility then that mcon could end up as a kind of lame duck president if this election goes wrong and there's not much time to turn things around no well he hinted to that he said well you know I don't have any elections until 2027 and we might have a new prime minister so well let's go straight to the National rally headquarters here's Marine Leen in the position of main opposition party we are now the major party for change we are ready to take power if the French people trust us with the upcoming legislative elections we are ready to rebuild the country we are ready to defend the interests of the French people we are ready to end Mass migration we are ready to make purchasing power a priority we are ready to reindustrialize the country in a nutshell we are ready to rebuild country we are ready to bring France back to life the message tonight including through the dissolution of the parliament is also a message sent to the leaders in Brussels this is a patriotic movement that is a historic one we are seeing the return of nations of protection around the world we are one people and wish to remain so we are closing the globalist parenthesis which has led to so much suffering around the world we are starting to see the dawn of a new day for all nations and people in Europe we are optimistic and we will treat this responsibly we're seeing here those French qualities that will be so necessary as we rebuild the country emu is calling French people back to the voting booths and I would like to call on the French people to join us to build a majority around the for the single most important cause France Okay so we've just heard from Marine Leen of the national rally Fabian Keller renew party I would like your thought first of all on the speech to say Bring It On essentially a bluff a Double Bluff called back by President macron as Mark said a moment ago this is a real gamble moment do you agree it's not a gamble or a bluff moment it's a serious moment for for democracy I think um that the president was really shocked and impressed by the results of impressed in the sense he was not expecting extreme right that high uh even though it was in the pools but in reality and he considers in his responsibility that it's necessary in a democratic uh country to uh give the voice to uh the people the citizens again um of course Mark's point that this is a risk of bringing in a bigger vote for the national rally I don't know I don't know I must say the news the information is very recent uh we have to think a little bit about what the consequences are but as I said the people are going to choose somebody uh to represent them 580 people so that's representing the the country uh um probably discussing on what people are worried about that is their situation what was very difficult this European campaign is that we did not speak about European issues we only spoke about National issues because the Russ and other parties brought always the subjects to that which is a problem when you don't discuss about what you are voting for but then here the discussion will be clear is it really what you want and again it's it's going to reflect what the Democracy at what stage it is but you say that's the problem now is that the problem that Emanuel macron put up Valerie AER and not somebody as a significant figure perhaps himself like we saw in Italy with Georgie Malone and say I'll do this I'll put forward what matters for Europe let's let's whether we not make it about me as a referendum as a president let's put in a figure that really talk to talk on Europe is that a mistake by renew I would not say that Valerie was a very strong uh candidate had every other candidates against her uh there was some quite a lot of mat remarks uh saying that she was thin and not speaking loud enough and that's not acceptable in politics we have to change the the the way people behave um and the president mro talked about Europe he made a speech at lbon presenting his strategy concerning the defense aspects of military defense but also cyber defense but also defense against uh angance uh interference interferences thank you and the issue of Frontiers so very Sovereign issue at the European level I think he did his job he's part of the job that is you know giving the uh the objective the strategy um so I would not consider that the the way the the list was built is is a subject uh Valerie is president of the renew group she's not only president of the French liberals she's also president of the 25 National delegation of liberals so she is not very well known in France but she is uh the the right person in that election okay let's let's go back to the headquarters of the national rally because we have a wait a guest waiting for us Rafael udwa from the identity and democracy Foundation who uh can join us now Rafael Udu thank you for uh being our guest tonight uh just firstly your reactions to what you heard uh from Marine Le Pen the president of the national rally group in the French Parliament and how you see the results across Europe tonight for identity and democracy we we see that uh this election is a huge victory for political family we know we see that in France Cal is the first part political party right now and the same in other countries like for example in Austria when our allies from the FP is now the first party in in Austria we also see an increase of the Patriotic and conservative values and parties in all Europe I can see think about Greece I can think about Catia so in all Europe we we see an increase of our political family and we see that voting for us is efficient because fire France one victory of the Ral one victory of the Patriots and no M ReDiscover what is democracy so voting for us is efficient because it shows to the the liberal to the center left and center right what is democracy and so yes it's a huge victory for our political family and ra what about the idea of the super group of uh of of different farri right forces coming together um who do you see as being part of that and what do you think is realistic I think that um we saw during the last legislature that uh political parties from both EC and ID the conservative and the Patriots we work together more and more we uh learned to know each other more and more and so there will be a cooperation between all political parties from uh the right from the conservative and Patriots uh right patriotic right we will see if there will be one big group or cooperation between the EC and the ID group but in the end of the day there will be a cooperation between all um all parties from the Patriotic and the conservative family and we already saw during the last legislature that from some vote for example about the green policy the EP need the vote from ecan and ID and discuss with us uh to uh to obtain majority or to block some uh text from the left and the Liberals and it will be more and more the case and there will be more and more cooperation between our political parties in both EC and ID rafhael the dynamic is fascinating behind you we were there maybe half an hour ago before the speech and we saw celebrations partying now I can hear a lot of talk TV's on Emanuel maon on in the background just talk us through the atmosphere when that announcement was made amongst the national rally MPS and delegates while they were watching yes we of course people are celebrating this Victory and uh for us it's a it's a reward it shows that all of our work all our fight are recognized by our people people in France know so that the the political alternative the political opposition to em M isal and it's the case in more and more countries in Europe so yes of course people are are celebrating this Victory and are ready to fight for the next general election in France okay Rafael oio thank you from Aon headquarters Fabian Keller so what you heard him say there about cooperation between the ID and the ECR when you look at Ukraine and a lot of other issues these are not very compatible forces are they actually no they are not because Poland for example the peace a very important part of the EC group I don't know exactly what how many they are going to be but probably something like 15 um they are really uh asking for help for Ukraine their neighbor and they know perfectly well the Russian friendship between Marine Le Pen and and Mr Putin as you know the Russian government financed uh LR party and for example Mr Marini is very well known as a big friend of Russia taking regularly public positions uh close to Russia did you mean the the RN rather than LR the RN sorry RN allegedly the French so yes it's incompatible it's interesting to see the director of the is already showing us that they are going to cooperate and not be a Global Group uh but of course Mrs Leen had to look for additional forces because she had a big Ally that was salvini but his is number of M is going to decrease sharply so this is why she was very uh uh positive concerning the the grouping of the two ID and ECR but it's it's not going to happen and also this is a big moment for you as well in the room your life for the next few days and weeks is going to change your ordinary day in office back to Strasburg or MPS with holiday plans suddenly changed you're going to go as of well when you leave the studio very shortly into campaign mode yes of of course we are going to help our colleagues of the majority the presidential majority as we did for the European campaign we're just going to keep up the pace and and go to discuss with people because I I I think the more we talk and the more we consider people who are um afraid of the future we afraid of decisions concerning their revenue to explain to them how we protect them or we protect them for price of energy ban K I know you are leaving us now great to have you on board and as we continue tonight with guests coming in and guests leaving at the same time I want to turn to you Thomas from the Socialist uh Public Square group The Alliance it's your reaction and again your days are going to change but you were nodding your head when I talked about this is a risk this is potentially a moment that the ran National could be really celebrating now how do you see the landscape well I mean we've just seen that so no I mean the snap elections coming snap yeah so I mean it's it can be a historic moment uh for France um I don't want ever in my life to see the far right in power uh I'm from Normandy I know what it takes what it costs um we were commemorating uh the D-Day uh lending um thousands of people including a few from my family who died uh as a result of the con consquences of having the far right in power so obviously um you know I'm going to do my bit and do everything I can um Luc I'm voting in an area where the current the cting mp araport uh is from the from the Socialist um I'm going to compaign with him um make sure that uh we can do whatever it takes for him to be um reelected because we need voices from uh from the left in the French Parliament more than ever um so so yeah I mean this is um yeah just to give a bit of uh news that we we have coming in so Ula felion the lead candidate for the European people's party uh has been speaking uh we don't have the the soundbite yet but we can give you a flavor of what she said uh she says that we won the election in reference to the European People's Party coming out with the the largest number of projected seats and then this is kind of the interesting bit actually to me she says we will build a Bastion against extremists from both the left and the right je does that suggest you she's going to go for this Centrist majority rather than you know the speculation we had about some kind of tie up with the ECR or something else what I see very very clearly is that the former majority which has the majority in the European Parliament has still the majority they PP is a little bit higher here snd a little bit lower renew Europe a little bit lower but when you take all the estimates for the MPS you have 400 so it suffices so that that's good news the majority of the European Parliament the majority of Europe remains Center left plus center right and it seems to me that this is very important now on the events that we are commenting I I have three remarks first remark I hope very much that the assumption that the ID is for maon and the maist to fight with extreme Vigor to prevent the extreme right to take power in France is the right assumption but time is very limited second assumption I hope that it might be the case but I'm speaking under the control of my Visa perhaps he has in mind that the Republicans should Ally together in the next legislative election I don't know whether it is possible or not I'm not a political man but I observe policy in Europe and in France from a rather Centrist position if I may the position of a former Central Banker so I don't exclude that because clearly there is a difference between the extremist and the Republicans Center left center right and the last point and I hope that it is a totally wrong assumption he would put in power the extreme right to prove incompetence I hope very much that it is a wrong assumption for my part but I have three of them okay well let's bring you some uh some of the updated estimates because of course we're important to underline what these are not final results they're just estimates and projections and I think we can show you the ones for France the national rally uh clearly ahead 31.5% renew 14.7 you can see the Gap has narrowed now since we l showed these figures between the Socialists and renew so increasingly a positive picture there for Rafael glesman and the Socialist Party France unbowed 99.5% so again uh clearly up from their result in 2019 game so we're seeing a doubling and let's make no bones about in the European elections for France this is a transing you know we have never seen a result as M Perman said a short while ago is wide a doubling of the score from the national rally we talked a moment ago to Thomas pelan K from the Socialist Public Square uh Alliance I want to go to the Socialist Party now let's bring in yinka aade and let's get a an idea of the mood there tonight hi there Gavin yes I'm here at the Socialist H HQ and there's been really a mood of mixed emotions there's been cheers over the results tonight but also um anger over the national rallies Surge and uh to get more reaction I'm joined by Karen nagasa who is a senator and also a member of the Executive Board of the Socialist Party what's been your mood your feeling tonight about uh the results but also Al this news from em mcon that he's resolving well we knew that unfortunately the the far rights the resembl national would be uh coming ahead with a historic uh result unfortunately uh we didn't expect Emanuel macron to answer positively to what um theem National asked of him which is to uh uh start new elections two parliamentary elections uh in a few weeks um and um we have a responsibility because we arrived uh uh first on the left uh to unify the left which was uh divided against in this uh European election so we have a responsibility to make sure that we talk to everyone and that we're ready uh to um work together to make sure that the far right doesn't come first at uh in the National Assembly in July and what kind of work you guys need to do right now glesman was very clear that while we can celebrate there's also a lot of work to be done yes uh well it's work that we've always um we've already been we've been doing for a while now and we have to amplify it uh We've uh we've always uh been talking to other parties on the left uh with also people who recognize themselves in in the values that of the left that we um that we cherish but are not members of of political parties and we have to be able to uh um go and talk to everyone to work together um I think uh building a union is always difficult um but I think we all we have no choice we have a responsibility to meet uh the French people in um in this next uh campaign and um to show them that there is uh another choice um to bring hope again in the country and that um uh the far right isn't that hope that the left can be that hope once again and the Socialist Party was able to secure 13 seats they to secure just over or projected um to secure just over 14% of the votes what's the future of the European Parliament now with these well we'll have to to see what's happening uh overall at the European Parliament uh we know that the defar is uh uh doing well unfortunately in other countries as well not just France um and uh we hope that we have a bigger uh group for the social Democrats and for all the combined uh groups on the left at the European Parliament uh but we can see that this is a this is a a a battle to uh uh offer a new New Perspectives new uh uh a new model of of society um not just in Fr then across across Europe to um to show that um um this this idea that each country is better alone and that the European Union is a problem is actually a a very false uh very mistaken idea yes so you're he you're hearing that there is very much a feeling that the national rally surge is a threat to Europe a threat to the European project so the Socialists very much feel that it's time to get to work um ahead of those upcoming elections okay we will uh get back to you soon yinka thank you so much for that and Let's cross to CLA P at Rene sance headquarters CLA you're uh with an MP there uh from the uh the ruling party yes I'm with Anan a you are an MP A Member of Parliament the deputy for Renaissance of course it's Emanuel macon's party how do you feel tonight and tell me has the president made too big of a political gamble it's never gambling when it's about voting and deciding for your own future and for your own political Destiny what happened tonight and today in the in whole Europe and in France is that far right extremism had reach reached a point which is very Waring for all of us and we need now to all gather all Democrats all responsible people who want their countries to get um over these past uh months of um getting over people who are migrants getting over people who uh would be the cause of all our problems this is what we have to cope with we will have to do that in the coming weeks which is getting confronting our projects against these projects of people who are not helping their countries but has Emanuel macron just given a fast lane to Marine pen here you know what we are looking at in Europe exists uh exist has been existing for years now so it could happen it can happen and if we don't do anything against it if if we don't take that kind of actions it will happen so that's also the meaning of the action of Emanuel macron tonight showing that we Democratic countries have a role a major role to play to stop extremism so I mean imagine you need to get off back to an see where you live you're going to drive home tonight 5 six hour drive what are you going to be doing tomorrow you're going to be hitting the campaign Trail straight away I I I will do what I do every week go and see my fellow citizens and try to explain them that what we are doing in FRS lowering Unemployment uh hiring uh policemen and juristic people is what we need for friends not false and Rapid solutions that are explained on TV shows thank you thank you very much CL Pand thank you let's give you a new updated early predicted results from some of the other parties here in France that we now have new results for so these were talking about the Republican Party the conservatives around a similar score they got back in 2019 7.2% just over that 5% Mark to which if you don't have as much as that you lose seats MEPS in Parliament the greens 5.5% a loss for them compared to 2019 and then we have Marian Mar mishelle the niece of marine Leen and Rec Conquest party 5.4% and the French Communists and resist and others well Communists resist losing out seats others 7.5 so Independence I want to bring in uh Mark Perman a second to understand some of the Dynamics that have been going on in the past few minutes since this announcement from Manel macron the snap elections um within the parties talk us through it well uh obviously this is uh knew and as usual with Emanuel macron this was not known by many people he takes decisions in a rather lonely way uh clearly this is a major major decision because he essentially upended the remainder of uh his second mandate uh because it things will never be the same he could have said okay we took a beating but you know the rules are the rules the National Assembly uh they all have a mandate until 20 27 that's it uh he decided really to take a gamble people will present it yes I listen to the people but it's a major gamble when you just got trounced in in the polls and essentially you're answering the call of the national rally they they said this but they didn't really believe mcon would listen to them let's be very very honest what we're already seeing is one of Emanuel mcon very close lieutenants who's also the foreign minister Stefan just told our colleagues of AFP a France press that in the upcoming elections uh the majority will not present a candidate against an outgoing MP that's from the Republican camp or the Republican scope which needs to be defined but essentially this means that if if there's an outgoing socialist or green uh MP or conservative mp uh the majority will not feel the candidate against that MP to ensure essentially that the Republican votes would add up this this obviously doesn't include the national rally and this presumably doesn't include uh the uh far-left friends unbow uh so they're hoping uh that this will be enough to build a majority but again uh this is a very very short campaign 21 days until the second round and this doesn't happen very frequently in French elections I mean you've had them when FR miton was elected then reelected but this was normal at the time jacqu shiak took that gamble 1997 he was certain he would win everyone told him you know it's a shoe in don't worry we'll have a stronger majority he ended up losing it so now the odds are totally against Emanuel macron we'll see how this uh pans out because he's also hoping that maybe National rally is not ready for this that they're not uh present everywhere in France there are 577 constituency that's a lot they've become much more local party than before but nevertheless they might be caught unprepared and he's hoping that the French will rise against the national rally but hope is not necessarily the right strategy three weeks to elections with in a scenario where a Sprint that's not a matter Sprint we kind of see this thing in Italy with revolving governments and I want to go to Brussels in fact right now let's go across to Dave keing because it's kind of overshadowed the European elections to some degree yes this is a massive moment in Europe but this is a huge moment in France as a result of that Dave keing what's the reaction there in well I think the important context here and what I keep hearing people saying is that what happened in France isn't being repeated at European level so far according to the exles we're not seeing a huge surge for the far right we're seeing a growth for the far right in line with the trajectory of the past two decades and we just got an updated projection based on examples with more countries involved and actually the numbers have gone down uh for for uh the right uh from that initial projection so people here let me tell you they are shocked about what macron just announced in that speech people are confused they don't understand why he did it they're all running to their French colleagues to try to explain why he might have done this I think the French colleagues are equally confused but then of course we also have the developments at European level which aren't quite so dramatic according to these exites it looks like the Centrist majority will hold in the Parliament and the far right will not have the numbers to form a right-wing uh controlling Coalition with the center right that being said those are only exit poles we won't really have a a reliable projection based on actual results until the last polls close in Italy at 11:00 p.m. but so far what we've seen from exit polls is a bit of comfort to people in the center obviously this is not a great night for the center and particularly not a good night for the center left they're having a terrible night here uh but people are at least taking some comfort people from the center are taking some comfort in the fact that that Centrist majority looks like it will hold and Dave if I can ask you to uh read the tea leaves when it comes to Ursula fond Deion the lead candidate of the EP which has come out with the largest number of projected seats here she's saying we're going to avoid both extremes on the left and on the right what does that tell you I it's very interesting to parse those words right because uh what she might be referring to there actually we're seeing around Europe a growth for far-left parties uh the the guey group in the European Parliament the far-left group has always been very small it looks like it could be somewhat of a bigger player here will still be small in number uh that may be what she's referring to I think some people who are climate activists will be worried that she what she's saying there is trying to appease those in her own center right EP group who have criticized her European green deal her raft of climate policies that have been enacted over the past year 5 years which have come into criticism from her own party her own group which she does need the support of in order to become uh European Parliament president as European commission president it's clear from the numbers that as we expected her EP group will come first by tradition the party the group that comes first in the election should have the commission presidency but I should point out that's just tradition uh and actually this is really just up to the 27 leaders of the European Union I would say though looking at these results it looks like she's in good shape she would have been worried if there were the numbers on the right to have a controlling Coalition with the far right and the center right I'm not I think she might be too moderate to have survived a confirmation vote with that majority it does not look like that happened I would say based on what we're seeing so far with the exit polls HSA Fon is probably okay yeah we it's it's a very difficult one to call Dave isn't it I was there in the same place in 2019 where it looked like man from vber was the man for the European people's party they called it the spiten candidate and the lead candidate suddenly it was a ofand so let's see let me bring in jeanclaude Trier jeanclaude I just want to get your view Europe wide for the moment you were nodding when Dave was talking about this picture in France the doubling of the score for the far right but not necessarily reflected across Europe absolutely not as I said the former majority is again the majority in the new Parliament so no no problem with that I had three assumptions putting myself in the head of maon without any prior information of course my assumption number two looks the right one namely the maist Do Not hope to win alone and uh they do not want the uh I would say Leen to to win and there is no demoniac strategy or tactics so what I understand is an offer to all Republicans with the idea that a new Coalition a coalition should take place in France I understand this is the ID we'll see what happens the French people will decide okay let's go back to the headquarters of the national rally which of course has trounced uh president macron's party in this uh in these estimated results that we have and we're going to speak to tibo fris who's not an MEP but he is an MP so a national MP in the uh French Parliament Tio fris thanks for joining us and we've just heard a senior finger a senior figure in your party saying that uh the national rally will fight to make sure that Jordan bardel goes to mattino that means that he will become Prime Minister that's your goal now I'm assuming yeah thank you for having me tonight yes of course it's one of our goal you have seen that we have said to the French people dur our campaign if you vote you win and now they have the opportunity during this legislative election general election that we were calling to explain to the French people that if they go to vote they're going to win you have seen that Macon is now in high difficulties regarding the scores he had is just for one reason the French people disagree with all the politics he put in place in place so now we have to go back to general election and we have to give the floor to the French people and let's see what will be the res in your view for your party was it the fact that for National rally the Bell effect having this 28-year-old which which seemed more distant from the leens Marine Leen and her father what do you see as the key reason for people turning to rore National the key reason and one of the reason is because we are tackling the issue that the French people wants to hear we made campaign close to the people we in contact with them we won the first group of opposition around Marine Leen in the National Assembly and we did the first group and we most probably are going to send the first delegation of member coming from one sole party in the European Parliament for one reason we were talking about the power of acquisition we were talking about the difficulties we had and the different policies put in place by the European Parliament and the European institution we talked about the migration pact which has an impact on the daily life of the French people so we are going to continue in this new campaign to talk about the real issue being very close to the French people and finally to have some politician dealing and talking about the issue that are facing our people and for National rally who kicked out the alternative for Germany from their European party comments by maximilan CW the leader for the afd talking about saying some of the SS the Nazi uh Hitler protection Squad were not necessarily criminals going forward you think there should be a cordon sanit from the national rally keeping out the afd yes it's uh it's it's very very clear the Declaration of this head of Delegation from alternative Dutchland were totally unacceptable and our president of the party and Jordan dala took a very Firm Stance saying that we will not sit at that moment with Al for dut and this should be the case in the next mandate in the European Parliament okay we'll leave it there thank you so much tioa and uh uh Tom you were shaking your head as uh he was making those comments what what were you thinking well I mean the the is not um you know on the ground talking to people um they they stay where wherever they are I've I've seen I guess two or three activists of the in the entire campaign I've seen you know 10 green um on our side we were more than 30 um so so yeah so I mean it's um it's it's a party that thanksfully for for well not thanksfully uh but because of um you know some billionaires having a big TV like kind of own version of rep murdok uh we have a few TV channels that are campaigning for the national night and day uh so obviously this uh this has an effect um what really really bothers me uh with the snap election is the number of days like 21 days come on let's be serious like democracy takes a little bit of time democracy is not only about voting as the ancient Greek uh knew it's about debating having a serious debate about the future of France in 21 days who are we kidding I mean this is this is extremely Reckless if you want to go for a snap election go for it but in Britain how much time you I mean this was expected already and there were a few month um in Spain when Pedro Sanchez called for the snap elections Everybody Was preparing for an election in December it happened in July people were already prepared very few people are prepared even the the macron people are not even even prepared so what we need to do here in France is what Pedro Sanchez and the Socialist did in Spain when there was a snap election they did win it and not only did they win the far right decreased as a result of the campaign that the Socialist L ins spay in went it went from 15 to 10% so in order and we we've we've been seeing that throughout history in order to defeat the far right democratically we need to have a strong Center left who has a program that shows an alternative that shows that there's an alternative way for people who are legitimately angry there is another way to do politics another way to do policies for the people than what the farite is is you know proclaiming as you know the master of deceivement that they are you talk about Reckless you talk about the UK UK there was a six- we notice period it was shock in brief it's Reckless because of the risk of the far right because there not not enough time for the Socialists for renew to get in gear to get the vote well not to get the votes but to have a proper debate you know in in England um I mean there's the the custom to have the snap elections and even if they were only like six weeks like everybody was waiting to have a snap election at some point and so you have you know uh platforms that are being built like in 21 days like how can we take time to go in our constituencies and talk with our citizens to be able to to to hear them on what they want for France we just did that for Europe uh but that's a different topic and obviously there are a lot of topics that are spec specifically French that were not really really discussed in that uh in that campaign so I think that decision is reckless the the number of days is is Frankly Speaking outrageous uh we need time to be to be democracy now we need to be responsible and do whatever we can to make sure that we keep the fire rights out of uh government if I may just add just uh there there are rules actually when you dissolve the National Assembly the campaign the the election has to take place between a minimum of 21 days so this was the option a maximum of 40 days so it's not a huge time in any case but Emanuel M obviously decided to hold the election clarify it could have waited and announced that later and do an election in September just to be clear gentlemen we have to leave it just for a few minutes and we're going to have a very short break but thanks so far to all our guests Thomas pan K Jean CLA and of course Mark pman our French politics editor we'll be back in 5 minutes so don't go anywhere [Music] [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Applause] [Music] in 2002 the Indian state of Gujarat erupted into religious violence with anti-muslim riots after a train carrying Hindu pilgrims burned to the ground at the time the governor of Gujarat was Narendra Modi Mr Jaffrey came out and told the crowd you can kill me but please beare the children and women but the rights did not listen to save us Mr jaffre K Modi all the leaders all the ministers in this election year against a backdrop of Hindu nationalism the ghosts of the past are reemerging it's a big scar in the Indian history they can pretend that they're forgetting they can pretend that it never happened they can never erase it the 2002 goodat riots Revisited on france24 and france24.com [Music] [Music] in [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] w [Music] [Laughter] [Music] welcome we're live special election program continuing here on France 24 and we've had the news from the projected results from the European elections we're also getting the news here in France of the parties and the earthquake as a result of that the decision by president macron to dissolve parliament to call Snap elections in 3 weeks time so let's first take a look and step back at how it plays out how the scene looks party-wise and we are seeing 31% of the vote in France to the National rally expected predicted results that is a double score of macron's renew party 14.7% you can see Valerie AER the leader in Europe go back to the 2019 elections for comparison there was one percentage point in it 23% 23% the Socialist Party their slogan this year is been r l reawake Europe and the parties reawakened a little bit Rafael Gman former journalist film director taking their result from around 8% back in 2019 to 14% Fran LEF France ins 99.5% in fourth place so that's how the map looks tonight we can also hear this key moment in the last half an hour or so from president macron calling snap elections okay now let's look at the second slide so we have some updated estimates for tonight's uh uh projected results in France the Republicans that's part of the ep the center right 7.2% so lackl of performance for them especially compared to their old rivals in France the Socialists the green party just scraping through there 5.5% so just enough to get seats uh in the European uh Parliament uh we have also reconquest which is a farri party read led by Maron Mahal 5.4% again just scraping through to get enough seats in this new 5-year term and then Communists resist uh that didn't uh get through Gavin to that 5% threshold as a result of that and that Victory by national rally party let here short while ago from the French President and that key announcement he's just made after having consulted article 12 of our constitution I have decided to give you back the choice of our parliamentary future through the vote I am therefore dissolving the National Assembly and will sign in a few moments a decree for legislative elections which will be held on June the 30th for the first round and July the 7th for the second okay we're going to go straight to Valerie a who is the lead candidate for president macon's party here in France let's have a lesson thank you very much [Applause] yeah thank you thank you very much for being with us and thank you for your support tonight I wish to speak to all French people my fellow citizens abroad in Mainland and in our overseas territories this evening there is no politician that loves Europe and that loves France can be satisfied I wish to speak to the millions of you who voted for our list supporting the presidential [Applause] majority I wish to thank our activists our candidates and all of the campaign teams that have fought tirelessly throughout the last 100 days in today's world thinking that you'll be stronger by retreating with people who are like you is simply to be wrong in today's world the interests of the country and the French people means Europe that is my life's fight and that is the message that I have been communicating since the very first day of this campaign the president of the Republic and our presidential majority gave me a responsibility which has been an honor to bear I wish to tell you that the MS of the presidential majority that you selected this evening will fight every day for you [Applause] [Laughter] I wish there were more of us and I wish to expect I wish to communicate my regrets that we're not going to be able to have so much talent with us you decided not to put us with a majority throughout Europe I've seen we've seen in the European Parliament the rise of populist movements and this happens in Europe and in each country the far right is a threat to dozens of sources of progress for our people the far right is a threat to hundreds of years of progress for rights and freedoms choosing the far right goes against the interest of the French people means lies in action choosing the far right means choosing to weaken the country because it does not respect our values because the far right always chooses foreign powers that hate France and Europe tonight the French people have sent a clear message they want more results more progress they want us to change their lives [Music] faster many of them also chose to not speak to not vote the fr the president of the French Republic has said that we need to answer those calls he has decided to allow them to decide in what direction they want the country to go I believe that asking the French people is always right I'm lucky enough to have benefited from the trust of the presidential majority for the last 100 days and I would like to say that I will continue to fight for that majority for our ideas and for the people who are part of our party I will commit to provide to France a clear majority I owe this to the French people [Applause] and Tonight Tonight more than ever I need everyone to commit so that Europe can live so that France can live so that public can [Applause] move okay so a key speech from Valerie a the leader in Europe of the ren party Emanuel macron's party talking about I wish there was more of us very interesting Fabian Keller running from the studio you saw her in the background just just talking to us a moment ago on France 24 let me bring in uh jeanclaude former president of the European Central Bank two thoughts from you I would ask firstly did they put up the wrong candidate with Val Valerie AA given that she wasn't a known entity and secondly how big a moment is this for you watching in terms of French political history on the first um question they would only say that of course when you are very well known by the people you have an advance and I can you know clearly see out of the results all the results I'm not speaking particularly of Madame a but but all the results are clearly demonstrating that there is some kind of privilege of advances that are associated with the fact that you you are known by the people that's absolutely clear second point I think I am experiencing myself as a French Citizen and European two things first uh the previous majority the former majority in the European Parliament has again majority and it is very very very clear so there is absolutely no signal which is which would be given by the European that they want to change course first that's very clear in France clearly my interpretation is that the president of the Republic wanted to check whether he could have a coalition which is a big big change big political change in the French tradition where you have two parties that are opposing one another there clearly he's trying to see whether it's possible uh I would think that it is very very uh I would say extraordinary difficult to imagine that his own present party could have the majority in the parliament when they have on only a relative majority yeah relative majority today and the second I hope very much that he's not playing a game which would what's be summed up in putting in power the extreme right I I'm sure that it is not the idea the IDE as far as I understand is to try to check a possible Coalition Center left center right jecl ji a pleasure to have you on the program tonight I know you're going to leave us more guests come in but thank you so much for being with us here on France 24 on a very very interesting night thank you thank you very much indeed all the best and let's go now to CLA pakala who is our reporter at Renaissance headquarters in Paris so CLA we just heard then the lead candidate Valerie AA speaking what was your what were your impressions of her speech and the atmosphere in the room for lots of Cl here of course this room was full of Valerie a supporters I'm at her headquarters here and people were pleased to see her on the stage speaking in a very defiant manner she said that no one who loves France or Europe can be joyful tonight she says that the far right threatens French values French rights French freedoms she says that the incoherence the economic incoherence of the farri also threatens to weaken France on economic level as well and she said that this was the combat of her life and that she would be fighting for French people she also said that this election was an opportunity for French people to have their concerns listened to reasonable legitimate concerns debates need to be had and she said that this snap election is the moment now to do it of course there isn't much time June 30th is just around the corner it's a very short time scale now for the campaign to take place Claire thank you I want to also just bring in briefly mark perilman because you know you said it there is a this is a seismic moment just listening to some of the the guests as well to to mark this moment how much of a sense do you get of a real shock within the parties now and perhaps like CLA was saying are they all aboard in renew or are they thinking why have you done this well they don't really have a choice he's the boss and that's always been the the way with Emanuel macron I mean his part party is a weak party this was a party that was built for him to be elected reelected the question is what happens after him because now he's essentially a lame dog he's still pres for three years but now he's upended his presidency he doesn't really know what will happen uh he probably took stock of the fact that he only has a relative majority in Parliament since his re-election and that's been difficult for him uh to push legislation uh through Parliament and now he's okay seeing that the verdict of the election was exactly what the puls predicted meaning a huge victory for the national rally and he's decided himself only clearly with maybe a few advisers that it's time to ask the French what they really want but this obviously uh means that uh the favorite now is the national rally will they a be able to win a legislative election which is 577 seats 577 cons you have to be strong everywhere but they clearly have uh the wind behind their backs I mean clearly we seeing this if you add the the votes they got with those from the other farri party hunet you have some 40% of the French electorate so they're they're the clear favorites Emanuel mcon is hoping that he can do outside of his party what he has done inside he built a party that was both Central left center right now he's hoping to widen the scope to include on the left the Socialist uh the greens and on the right the conservatives uh knowing that they're also very weakened entities and he's hoping to bring them into a big tent that will able uh to Pro to be a challenge to the rise of the far right but it's a major gamble has always said I'm a gambler this is how I won the presidency well he really threw the dice tonight and no one knows what will happen and as we saw with Fabian Keller that complete surprise she said I'm still processing this yeah let's uh get some more uh atmosphere from the headquarters of the national rallyo James Andre is there James uh do you get a sense that uh the party is ready for a national election campaign which after all as we've been hearing on our set is very different from a European one with just a few weeks uh to turn things around yes well that's you know this is what the the top brass of the party of saying we've been asking the question of course and their answer is yes they say we've been expecting this to happen for weeks and months now so uh we are ready we are ready for a campaign we are ready to you know rule the country I was speaking to uh two young National rally members Gabrielle and rapael who are telling me well you know we could have 180 seats in Parliament I think that's a decent goal they're hoping also and this is there's a lot of talk here about who would be prime minister if uh the national R got majority in Parliament and everybody's saying here that you know it would be Jordan bellaa and not M Leen but if you like it's been a roller coaster ofen evening here uh at the uh National rally you know party because simply at the beginning of the evening well everybody was you know quite smug thinking that they were definitely getting to win tonight win big then it happened then in Emanuel macon's speech started here on the big screen behind me and was incredible to see people booing him and booing everything he was saying until he said he was going to have a parliamentary desolution and there everybody started shouting and yelling and indeed celebrating because people were telling me yeah he's not going to do it a lot of people were telling me here that they didn't believe that Macon would indeed choose uh the choose the solution and well indeed yes that is what happened so yes here uh well there's a mood that is a one of Victory and one of also looking at what needs needs to be done now young militant saying right well well have to be out there tomorrow uh uh putting up posters and uh tracting and James it's worth pointing out that what we're seeing in France it's not being replicated across the whole of the EU in terms of a spectacular surge of identity and democracy that doesn't seem to be happening but of course this must be very pleasing for people where you are in terms of the size of the delegation that the RN is going to send to the new European Parliament yes that absolutely I was speaking to you know to to party members here they were telling me we will be the largest uh nationalist right-wing party in uh the European Parliament if uh indeed you know there going to be 30 or 31 uh MEPS they were saying that you know that would give them uh the power to unify to create this uh this super group uh that they are hoping to manage to engineer one explaining to me that indeed uh these are nationalist parties they have National agendas and of course that means creating a super group is complicated but he was telling me that he feels that there is today a convergence uh that they have more in common uh than than differences and he believes this per this this you know political uh expert this this you know he's one of the the heads of the party was telling me that you know he believes that yes these differences can be ironed out and there there can be a measure of Freedom as to what is voted by different members of this super group and he to believe that uh this is a real possibility so it could be a very big shift nevertheless at the European Union I mean of course even though uh the hard right parties not have an outright majority the fact of the matter is if they do structure and there are more MPS of course they will weigh in more on decisions and what I've been told here is that uh well this is obviously what uh these National rally supporters want and they believe that this has been and Jordan B said it you know he said it's the Wind of Change and they believe that this is indeed a new political page being written both in France and in Europe and they hope that indeed these uh these alliances will manage to be engineered at the European Parliament thank you looked like somebody was tickling your ear for a second but he was changing the camera just behind you in an unfortunate frame shot so let me bring in for a second Philip tur our International Affairs editor James talking about a super group he's not talking Abba or the Beatles he's talking about the identity and democracy on the far rise which Marine Leen is within and the European conservatives reformist started by the British conservatives all that time ago moving to the right continually now you probably call them rightwing nationalists and whether they would merge together well that's the big problem and the I think the challenge now for all these far-right groups is to try to form some kind of an agreement amongst themselves to move forward as one or at least uh in the smallest number of groups possible because the more they're split over different groups the less their impact is going to be uh but the problem is they don't quite often see eye to eye like afd in Germany doesn't see eye to ey with Georgia Maloney in uh Italy Georgia Malone doesn't want to really end up being at the top of a group with Marine leupen because that would mean there would be a decision about who was going to lead that group whether it would be Georgia Maloney who wants to lead it she wouldn't give in Marine leupen who would also like to lead it so they've got over the first hurdle by well certainly the national rally here in France got over the first hurdle today by coming uh first with such a huge uh majority but there's also another problem that the national rally is going to have to face come face to face with um and that is that if you look back to 1997 the last time this happened in France where uh the time president Jack shik dissolved the National Assembly uh there were legislative elections which brought in the Socialist Party so Jack shik was a lamed up president for 5 years with a socialist prime minister he was from the conservative rightwing and at the end of that 5year period everyone was saying okay Leon Jos is the prime minister this will be a great sueme board for the Socialist to get back into power and in 2002 we had this situation where Lon jpat who was the then prime minister ran for president and he wasn't even in the second round he was beaten by the national front of the time and Jean Mahi Leen so it doesn't necessarily mean that if Jordan bellaa or Marin Leen becomes prime minister of France after these legislative elections at the end of June that is going to lead as a springball for them to take over the presidency in the next presidential elections in 2027 the the national rally has never been in power in France neither did was was the national front this is a whole new ball game for them uh they could they could be the majority uh party in the National Assembly in Paris and that will give them the responsibility that they've been asking for but it's totally different to being in the opposition which is what they're in right now so it'll be very interesting to see whether they can actually put their money where their mouth is if they do take control in this country and then use that build on that to run a candidate for the presidential election in 2027 to to come first and take over the presidency of France so it's no by no means one either in the European Parliament or uh in in in French politics for the national rally right now okay Phillip thank you thank you we'll we'll come back to you of course shortly but uh let's go to Catalina now again Catalina Maron the who's been looking at all the uh European uh projections for us Catalina do we have an update then from the last one that we showed not much of an update uh over uh we could see that the main groups still dominating in these elections are the conservatives and the Socialists the conservatives with the EP LED in this election by Ursula vand liion and uh with uh 186 seats and then we see the Socialists that have 133 seats in uh this European Parliament election in third place is uh renew Europe our French president Emanuel macon's Renaissance group is part of renew Europe with 11% of the seats in European Parliament but not far behind is Georgia Malone's ECR with 9% almost more than 9% 9.72% of the seats in the European Parliament and then 10 points below uh with 60 seats in Parliament is the ID group of which uh Marine Leen and bardel National rally are part of this far right group IG and not far behind Catalina well explained let's talk you through the Dynamic of what this means because if you're looking at the party now all of the parties across the European Parliament 720 seats what matters did you reach the 361 majority to make decisions to drive uh decisions through and well if you count the Socialists you count the EP conservatives you count the renew party including Emanuel macron and the liberal Centrist they have 401 seats you look at the ID group on the far right the um the Nationalist right of the ECR they have about 130 seats so disruptors yes but doesn't drive the whole of the EU forward and that's why context matters Dave keing uh will break that down a bit more he's our man in Brussels yes so I mean I think that what I'm hearing from the Centrist party so that each of the groups have their little stands here where they're it's kind of the Spin Zone if you will and what you really sense from those Centrist groups is relief this is not the nightmare scenario that they had feed based on some polling going into this election that those centr groups might not get that majority that was always an unlikely possibility that uh there could be a right-wing majority in the parliament the centerp Marine Le Pen's ID and Georgia Malone ECR that clearly hasn't come to pass unless these exit polls are really really wrong now we're going to get the official results at 11:00 p.m. uh really uh coming up pretty soon after the last polls Clos in Italy uh but what we're seeing that is that the growth of the two farri groups the ECR right-wing nationalist group and ID the more traditional hard farri group uh they've grown really at the same trajectory they have been growing for 20 years so this isn't really a surge for them uh but it is a pretty big jump what's interesting actually if you look at the numbers that right at the end of this Parliament ID has actually lost seats but that's only because they kicked out the German farri party afd just last month and those were a lot of MEPS so the big question is whether they welcome back the afd maybe after they get rid of their controversial leader Maximillian Crow but that still wouldn't get them anywhere near uh being able to form a majority with the EP as you just mentioned um so it looks based on these exles it looks like everything's going to kind of stay the same however it's this this shocking victory for uh the RN of marine Leen in France can't go ignored uh it is actually possible they could be the largest single party in the European Parliament uh the only one who might not might knock them out of that place is uh fondre allance uh Central right party uh from Germany uh so they are definitely like you say they're going to be disruptors I think in this election even though this is the same trajectory of growth they've had over the past 20 years they've crossed a threshold here into really being a major force to be reckoned with in the parliament however there are no way near being able to control the agenda okay Dave do stay with us for more updates from Brussels but let's bring you some uh figures from Germany where the uh estimated results are said to have been uh well quite disappointing for Chancellor Olaf Schultz his SPD there on 14% that's down a couple of points from the last EU election the greens confirming that slump that was predicted uh in the opinion polls according to these estimates down several percentage points to 12 perc the afd uh building on its uh relative success you could say in 2019 and the CDU uh the so that's the the Cent right party which is part of the EP in the European Parliament 29.6% so I believe that's a very slight increase on uh the last election and the left party 88.3% uh the free Democrats uh 4.9% so that's a very this must be a very disappointing well for the old party of Angela Merkel uh you know they would say that they they're holding they're still the biggest party I think there there is an interesting result with the afd where you you despite what happened with maximilan CW The Leader and the allegations of taking money from Chinese which he denies that is see a a well a steady it's the green party I me let's go to Nick holsworth because the green party was the party everybody was talking about in 2019 they had the surge not this time Nick holsworth in Berlin indeed the the the greens have really not done very well at all in in fact it seems that um the one of the reasons may be that they've extended the franchise to the 16 to 18 year olds and um some of the earlier um estimates say that the greens have lost up to 23% from the 16 to 24 age group um which is really quite remarkable and and there are some other figures here on the the support that the far right have received um obviously the far right uh hasn't done as well here as the far right has with uh Marine leen's uhal rally in France but still they put on about 5 percentage points to get about 16% of the popular vote um and it seems that most of those new voters are coming from young people um for the under 30s they they've seen an increase of 10 percentage points so 177% of under 30s voted for the afd 20% of the 30 to 44 age group voted for afd and then the figur start to decline you get 18% of those between 45 and 59 11% of of the uh the over 60s so it seems that um although perhaps some commentators might have thought that younger people would be voting Progressive green left actually it's the other way around younger people seem to have overwhelmingly given their votes to the far right in this election in Germany and the greens have been the ones who have suffered most from that and of course Chancellor Schultz's uh party the SPD that they've also suffered they're down a couple of percentage points uh down from uh about 14 uh 16 last time to 14 this time you were reporting for us during our Europe votes Daily Show just before the election night and I remember one of the things you said in your report was about how the greens were being uh really uh given a run for their money by other green forces that were trying to uh get votes on the basis that the greens have hold out too much on issues like nuclear energy and so forth is that what the greens are being punished for then are they being squeezed from all these different directions it yes it it it does seem if the greens are being punished for being a little bit too green perhaps I mean one of the issues in Germany is that people are very concerned about energy bills and Germany stopped using nuclear power some years ago after a lot of pressure from the greens um and some consumers identifi that is actually having helped push up the prices of course the prices were pushed up more effectively by the uh the the war in Ukraine that Russia started a couple of years ago because that caused a big spike in the uh prices of natural gas in particular something which the Germans were relying upon and used to import a large amount of from uh the Russian State uh concern gas prom uh the other issues are that uh younger people seem to have been scooped up by other groups as this the European party called um Vault and they've taken some of those votes away from the greens too because they've also adopted green policies that seem to be a little bit uh friendlier and as you've just mentioned absolutely uh the fact that the greens were in Coalition with Schultz and Schultz's Coalition has been very unpopular he's one of the most unpopular of postwar chancellors um that hasn't held their cause whatsoever Nick great to talk to you I think you've probably definitely Contender for backdrop of the night that is Beautiful by the brandenberg gates behind you Nick thank you let's bring you the results expected results tonight that are coming from Spain uh let's move there and let's take a look how things are panning out what we can show you what we know is it's the popular party the conservative right saying Tomy up saying we win just by PS soy the Socialist Party of Pedro Sanchez is the prime minister now that is a flip reverse of what happened back in 2019 when I think Sanchez's party had something like 21 seats um double of the percentage points of the People's Party on 14 seats so biggest party tonight the conservatives followed by the Socialist Vox the far right party Santiago abascal the leader on 10% polling around what they might have thought that' expect but certainly not the farri right surge that we're seeing in France tonight but notable third place SU which is the left Alliance led by Yolanda Diaz with the Socialist at 6.3% we can the pmos party which suffered pretty much Disappearance in the polls actually notable they're still staying in there in Europe despite disappearing almost entirely in France uh so 4.4% there tonight also looking at briefly there's a new faction of VX kakola Fiesta the part is over that's going to make its European debut at 2. 2 to3 seats tonight so that's the picture we're getting from Spain we're likely to speak to our correspondent Sarah Morris uh in a short while too a flip as you said gav between the Socialists and the uh conservative PP from the last uh election but I think we can now bring you some uh estimated results from Poland as well if I'm not wrong so here we are KO Civic platform of prime minister Donald Tusk 38.2% uh Law And Justice that's the uh conservative opposition which lost the election last year 33.9% confidia the uh far right party 11. 9% and Tra droga Third Way so that's part of renew Europe uh 8. uh 2% so just before we yeah this is interesting because the polls I remember we were saying a few days ago they had Law And Justice and Civic platform neck and neck but this is actually quite quite a significant gap between the two Accord it's only estimates of course and what this this is why Donald Tusk has uh has claimed victory tonight for his Civic platform it's a good point on it's worth saying so we had the law and Justice party the conservative ECR so nationalist populists in power for a long time um they were three times the amount in terms of the score percentage points back in 2019 and I want to bring in Philip tur again here because we're seeing now the Civic platform led by Donald tus the former president of European Council now leading the way according to predictions you've been looking deep at the Poland results Philip well what we've seen here is that uh there have been fears that the far right was going to sort was going to uh sweep across the board in in Europe and apart from here in France where we have this massive difference between Jordan bardel on 33% and very higher of uh the uh renew party of Amen mcon half as many points behind on about 16% we haven't seen that Gap or sizable Gap like that in any other European country between the far right and then the traditional parties and even in Poland where there have been fears that the the law and Justice there are two right-wing far right parties there Law And Justice uh on 33% as you were just saying that's uh lost six seats that's gone down quite a lot since the 2019 elections they have 19 seats and then the confeder Aon uh they gain six seats so that puts the farite more or less in the same position as it was back in 2019 but Donald tusk's party uh the Civil platform uh KO remains still in the lead uh with 38.2% that's 21 seats so that's two seats ahead of uh the law and Justice party so it is good news for uh the traditional parties in Europe in in Poland which is one of the countries where uh there were fears that the situation uh in Ukraine uh the fear of Russia uh security issues uh would all push the population to vote much more massively in favor of the far right doesn't appear to have been quite such a move as maybe as was anticipated before the polls took place uh for the European elections and just to get a sense of the magnitude of of the moment Philip and some of the countries that have been voting in the north of Europe Scandinavia you talk about those in close proximity to Russia tell us about the results we're getting and break those down for us then well first of all in in Denmark uh there's been no real shift to to the right um the popular Socialist Party uh the SF that has come first with 18.4% the social Democrats of the Prime Minister mty Frederickson remember she was attacked a couple of days ago and has canceled all meetings at the moment she's okay but she was hit by a man in the street in Copenhagen uh her party uh the social Democrats got uh 15.4% uh vent her the the the leftwing party which is actually a central right party uh they got uh 13.9% two seats the Danish folk party which is really the far right party in Denmark well they only got 6.5% uh losing one seat so they actually did much worse this time around than before now that could be put down to the policies that have been led by mty Frederickson over the the past couple of years since she was elected to the the role of prime minister where people in Denmark tend to say well what we have in power here is a farri party uh in all senses of the word apart from the name uh and and the policies that were introduced by met Frederickson to try to annihilate the Danish folk party seem to have paid off and she's done better in these elections she didn't come out first but she's still uh come out pretty much on top then if you look at Finland the far right has not done well there either uh there's been a big leap in support for the left Alliance on 17.4% the National Coalition party which is part of the EP uh they got 24.6% uh it was a very poor showing for the fins party that's the farri right party uh down 6.2% and only 7.2% in uh the polling so another uh night of not good news for the far right uh in Scandinavia we're still waiting for the uh results from Sweden they have 21 MEPS in the parliament um and there are rumors that the uh Sweden Democrats the far right party there of Jimmy erson uh may win quite a lot of seats uh he's Ving to take over or vying to try and become the next prime minister of Sweden uh but we'll see how well that party does for result I've interviewed Jimmy auson he he talks Alman I'm sure you you agree about being a real disruptor in Europe one of the big issues he has is migration and yet they are a big influence within the the Coalition the moderates and the prime minister of CHR I think that the migration issue to be honest with you is pretty much the top discussion point in many of those Scandinavian countries certainly in Denmark and uh and in Sweden uh so I think that was probably one of the reasons that a the vote there okay let's just bring you back to France for a second because we should remind everybody that some moments ago president maon France dropped a bombshell announcing the dissolution of the French uh of the French uh Parliament and announcing a snap election in just a few uh weeks uh from now let's take a listen to president mcon speaking earlier this evening after having consulted Le 12 of our constitution I have decided to give you back the choice of our parliamentary future through the vote I am therefore dissolving the National Assembly and will sign in a few moments a decree for legislative elections which will be held on June the 30th for the first round and July the 7th for the second and we're here in the studio with our French politics editor mark pelman who's monitoring all the twists and turns on the French political scene and there seems to be some intrigues Brewing Mark with the head of renew Europe saying that uh the these discussions they're not part of discussions on the dissolution of the National Assembly can you break down what you're saying at the moment well basically everyone was taken aback by M's decision uh we learned a few minutes before 8:00 p.m. that he would speak very unusual for the president to speak on an election night except when he's running for a president but he's done that uh before and he cannot be re-elected so there was no reason and then this surprise announcement this bombshell as you rightly defined it uh to dissolve the National Assembly I've heard the message of the French people they are the ones who decide so they should decide by casting a ballot June 30th and July 7th that is in 21 days uh only so this is a major bombshell and so everyone was taken back uh the he's meeting actually with the with the uh with all his ministers tonight it never happens on a Sunday night usually there's a weekly cabinet meeting most of the time on Wednesday morning uh so this is an emergency uh meeting and all the his Partners across Europe didn't uh expect this uh to happen this is a purely National decision he has taken a gamble he sees that he only has a relative majority in Parliament that's proven to be a problem for him to push uh through legislation and he's hoping uh that he can disrupt surprise the national rally by uh catching them unprepared uh for those elections in 21 days and at the same time rally around his party what's left of it not much to be honest uh but like socialists greens conservatives and so on to rally and essentially uh have a barrage quote unquote against the national rally and be able to build a majority we're also learning that the French President will address the French once more in the coming days probably to explain his decision and what his plans are because uh he is the only one to know right now but Mark about this barrage can you have a barrage against the national rally without actual alliances if it's just all the parties competing for themselves basically well that you're right I mean this is not the French tradition he's forcing uh the French parties to learn German in a hurry uh they're going to have to build a coalition German style in 3 weeks and this is not the way French functioned uel mcon said when he was elected I'm going to bring everyone from the center left to the centrer right under my tent the problem is that the tent has been emptying very quickly and he doesn't have much support left and uh he took stock of that today whether the others will agree to that uh that's a big question we can assume that the conservatives who took a beating again tonight will agree what happens on the left the left was able to form a coalition between the Socialist the green and Jean luk milon's friends unbal parties and perform rather solidly in the last elections there've been tensioned this Alliance is no more what will happen will the Socialist and greens agree to have a deal with maon or will they decide to remain on the left with John M there lots of questions to be asked not a lot of time to answer them the president hopes that rolling the dice uh will be in his favor uh but the odds are clearly against him tonight a big roll of the dice let's bring you mark thank you let's bring you some updates from Slovakia tonight notable because the Prime Minister there was an assassination attempt on Robert fitza a number of weeks ago that he survived it he was seen actually voting today on crutches at the polling station we've had results in the smear the Direction party leftwing populists of Robert fito well he's said they have been defeated tonight and he's acknowledged that they've been defeated by the social Liberal Party so that news just coming in from Slovakia I want to go to Brussels I want to bring in Dave keing Now Dave we were talking a moment ago was talking about the situation in Denmark always reminds me of a quote from borgan prime minister bur at the time saying in Brussels no one can hear you scream and there's a sense that in European politics you're either entering the the election phase as an EP on the way up or on the way down there are few rock stars is that right well that largely depends on the country actually I mean in Eastern Europe especially smaller countries it's actually considered quite prestigious to be an MEP and you could go in there in the middle of your career at its height however for bigger countries for Western European countries it is exactly as you say uh the European Parliament has long been considered a parking place for half retired National politicians or young politicians who want to get their starts I would say that even in Western Europe that is changing though as the EU gets more into Focus as the EU has been at the center of fighting against the crisis that we've experienced over the past 5 years Russia's invasion of Ukraine uh the covid crisis uh so I think that that is changing over time uh I however I wonder right now with the center shrinking it's whole in but with it shrinking how uplifting of a place this will be for ambitious middle of their career politicians to come uh especially when they're seeing the actual disagreements that are possible between these Centrist parties between the center left and the center right the the more narrow that grand Coalition of Centrist parties become the less they can actually disagree on ideology and over the past 5 years in this past term I've heard more and more complaining about this that just to hold off the far right they basically have to agree with the central right ep the central left all the time uh so I do wonder if if these type of results might discourage uh talented uh younger politicians from coming here to Brussels Dave if we can switch gears for a minute um these elections do have an impact of course on who gets the three top jobs in the EU the European commission the parliament uh and the presidency of the EU Council have you got any sense of where that might be going now or is it really too early to to say anything on that I'd say it's too early to say however I think the biggest block to president vandan getting a there were two big potential blocks to president vayan getting a second term as a reminder it's the 27 leaders of the European Union's countries that make a decision about who's going to be the commission president uh and it looked like uh president ferion was a shoe in for a second term the leaders like her she's fairly non-controversial uh however lately we've been hearing that president mcon was throwing other names into the mix maybe Mario dragy former European Central Bank president uh so I think two tonight's developments are good news for her for two reasons one is the Centrist majority holds she shouldn't have a problem being confirmed Med by that majority in the European Parliament we're not looking at a right-wing majority Coalition which was an a just which was a possibility not very likely but a possibility but the other thing is President macron is going to be so distracted by this legislative election over the next month I cannot imagine he is going to have the time or the political Capital to be coming here to Brussels at the summit and which will make this decision on the 28th of June and throwing his weight around and suggesting another name I think tonight's development just made that a lot less likely and it just made it a lot more likely that President V will be appointed to a second term I i' put her chance at 80% after what we've seen tonight 80% thank you Dave the the So-Cal spitsen candidat in system the lead candidate which doesn't always go to plan so let's see there's a few names in the ring one of them is vdl uh also for European Council president one of the other key jobs Nita Frederickson is being suggested key uh socialist on the center there right let's go from RS to Italy and SEMA gupa we're waiting still for the predicted results there but just talk to us about this lure moment the both Marine Le Pen trying to attract Georgia Malone the Prime Minister and her brothers of Italy party and government and also from the center and how key she is right now to European politics yes I mean she's really been dubbed as almost like the king maker uh if you like in this uh European election she's taking Center Stage because they're saying that she's being woed woed bya V delion who's hoping to get her support uh in terms of trying to uh get her support to be a part of this uh to get her support to become the next president of the European commission uh she has uh been very clear and quite positive in a praise of milone referring to milone as uh someone who is clearly pro-european uh she's taken trips with her uh uh to uh countries in North Africa like Tunisia in order to work at deals at stemming uh migrant flows so clearly she's hoping to partner with Maloney on that on the other side yes as you mentioned Marine lean the leader of the national rally in France uh hoping to uh woo uh Maloney saying that perhaps join me and we can form a super group of far-right parties um Miss Maloney for her part hasn't actually said on whose side she'd be more inclined towards what she's been very clear about is that she is not going to partner with the left or the greens as far as her uh ECR the European conservatives and reformist group is concerned uh she is hoping to repeat what she has created here in Italy which is a coalition of right-wing parties and that's what uh she says she wants to do at the European level but I think at this stage it's still voting for just another few more minutes here in Italy uh after 11 polls Clos in Italy and that's polls across the European Union for these elections and then we'll have a clear idea of what's come out in this election it's important to note the brothers of Italy uh the uh party of Miss Malone uh is projected to get some 26% uh or 27% of the vote according to the final polls that were conducted some two weeks ago uh before there was a poll silence uh now that's a fourfold increase if you compare to the last European election in 2019 when she only got 6% but of course back then she really was very much her party was very much a fringe party now of course uh she's the prime minister of Italy and clearly hoping uh to put her name and her face as the lead candidate in uh her party for these elections here in Italy she's hoping to do uh the same in terms of how well she did nationally also at the European level Sima what what's your impression of this whole campaign and and the people that you spoke to were they very kind of motivated were they very aware of the European stakes and all of this because you know in France it's been quite a low visibility of the campaign what what's it been like in Italy well if you look at the election turnout so far of course we'll get the final figures in a few minutes uh it has been lower than the other uh European election back in 2019 and and not exactly the right comparison but if you look at the national elections also there was a drop in terms of voter turnout and that is strange for Italy which is a country that culturally people do go to vote and so there is a turn in that direction on top of that I mean it's been very much focused on National issues things like healthare things like taxation we've seen a far right parties like that of Mato salvini his League party which is together with uh Leen at the European level he's been talking about being against any Europe uh initiative of any form and that's been his campaign but I think very much it's been focused here in Italy on National issues seea great to talk to you so we will find out very soon what happens from Italy and particularly with Georgia Maloney key moment coming up let me bring in Philip to Philip what's your sense of covering these in the past particularly with Georgia Maloney she put herself front and center as the group leader even if she won't stand and she won't stand as an MEP but what how much is about European politics green campaigns and how much is about a referendum on the domestic leader in power I think it depends to a great extent on on the leader and on the country I think Georgia Maloney is in a fairly privileged position because she is popular in Italy she's um not been in power very long she's changed her policies to sort of become a climatized the European Union and tone things down a bit so she's like as sea was saying that the king maker in all of this but I think when it comes to the National rally what you could say is that the the easy bit was winning the European elections the hard bid is about to start the hard bid is trying to make build those those coalitions with uh other far-right parties in Europe they don't get on with afd I'm not sure how well uh Marin Leen is going to get on with Georgia Maloney we'll have to see uh how is George Maloney going to get on uh with uh with Hungary I mean there are all sorts of questions about uh different parties and how they could Forge some kind of Coalition together in in Europe and then of course there is the fatigue once a party takes power uh that they don't actually come up with answers to all the promises that they they did uh pledge to to answer during the campaign so all of this is going to play out in the next few weeks but I think the most important thing right now is to see who wins who comes first in the legislative elections in France that is certainly going to play out and shape politics for at least the next 3 years all right well it's time to wrap up so do uh we want to thank all of our uh our people on set Philip till Mark Perlman our correspondents Nick Holdsworth see gup to Dave keting and of course all our reporters at party hqs as well Gavin so to recap tonight the center has held the three main parties renewing the center uh We've also had the the Socialists and the conservatives getting more than majority but the increase of the far eyes continues to be notable the center has shrunk so that's where we are with still results to come in tonight in China being a feminist is a daily battle I find that China is like Black Box disconnected from the world our daughter thinks that if she's happy on her own we'll be satisfied but that's not enough for us some women carry their message on stage in fact women need us to speak up for them others are forced to Exile the political oppression and just the Civic Society has been more closed up what astounds me is finally having a place where I can express my anger a new edition of reporters on France 24 and 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