Hurricane Francine Landfall | TS Gordon Soon | Subtropical Storm?

hello everyone and welcome back to the ciphering weather in today's video we have Francine making landfall with Louisiana tropical depression 7 in the main development region and three areas of interest for possible development if you like detailed with the breakdowns hit the Subscribe button and notification Bell to get all of my upcoming videos so we're looking at the latest satellite imit of the Atlantic Basin thanks to Tropical tibet. comom for Wednesday September 11 2024 the black G is Hurricane Francine with Winds of 90 mph about to make landfall later on this evening with Louisiana the Pink Arrow is newly designated invest 94l earlier today very small compact system that could develop into a tropical storm right behind it is 92 l in purple and then blue is our new tropical depression rapidly developed yesterday from invest 93l into our new tropical depression and soon to be named tropical storm Gordon so here's our foric map the spin and energy in the atmosphere associated with all of our tropical entities and then here we have our close-up view of hurricane Francine as it's approaching the Louisiana Coastline now this is going to bring a ton of rainfall as you can see see here on the latest satellite uh radar image and you can see all that rain that's slowly going to be moving its way up the Mississippi River Valley associated with the storm and those outer bands some of them could contain some tornadoes in them as they come on Shore so the winds now are actually up to 100 miles per hour as of the 4M update as I'm making this video we have wind it's moving North North it's moving Northeast now at 17 milph so it's a little bit quicker but then you see it's stall out right in the middle of the Mississippi River Valley around Missouri and Arkansas and that's going to bring a ton of rain to the region over the next few days anywhere in those yellows we're talking 4 to 6 Ines on the left and then the Orange is 6 to 8 in maybe even a foot of rain is possible in Louisiana and around the New Orleans area so a lot of flooding as you can see on the right hand side of your screen as possible especially in that red zone now as the storm comes on Shore it's going to be bringing the peak storm surge so from Burns point to uh p uh foron we have about five to 10 ft of uh Peak storm surge to come through and then everywhere else from there less from there as you can see on the map so the key messages from the National Hurricane Center regarding Francine are here on the left is in English on the right is in Spanish you can pause to take a chance to read this here is our new tropical depression out near the Cabo verie Islands rapidly uh started to consolidate that very burad area of circulation yesterday and was designated tropical depression 7 as you can see here we have winds of 30 mil 35 milph moving West Northwest at 18 so compared to what's been sto out here for a few days this one is booking it and here's the spaghetti track guidance model showing it should stay out the sea not a threat to any land and in terms of intensity it's split 50/50 between staying a weak tropical depression or becoming a stronger tropical storm maybe a cat one hurricane on the top end here's our new invest 94l it's very compact circulation as you can see it's well defined there's some matter of will it maintain that thunderstorm confection which is flaring up now it's got a 10% chance of developing into our next tropical storm over the next two and seven days on its approach towards the Lesser in Tilly Islands here you can see they could scrape by according to the Spaghetti track guidance models on the northeast portion of them uh but this one is rather on the weaker side at with its small compact size might be able to briefly become a tropical storm before fading away behind it we have a little bit bigger but still tiny 92 L it's got a 30% chance of developing over the next two and seven days and it too is forecast to follow the same track as 94l towards the Caribbean islands and it too is on the weaker side barely if it becomes anything maybe a tropical depression at best and then we also have off the Southeast coast of the United States disturbance three in area of Interest as we have a potential non-tropical low forming from the frontal boundaries draped across this region uh an upper level trough will move in and potentially spin up a low pressure system that could gain some tropical in uh characteristics so a potential subtropical storm is possible and bringing impacts to either South or North Carolina so let's use the GFS model see how that's going to play out out black is Francine purple is 92 L blue on the right side of your screen is tropical depression 7 and pink is 94 L here's the upper level Ridge over Francine but that's not allowing for a rapid intensification anymore as we're going to have this wind shear to its north and west keeping it at Bay from developing any further so it's G to move in as about a 977 millibar low pressure system and then the rest of our tropical entities are out in the main development Region 2 days from now on Friday September 13th we see our two invest 94 and 92l moving towards the Caribbean islands Francine has moved Inland and is now on its slowing down approach and tropical depression 7 potentially Gordon continues moving West Northwest in the main development region not seeing much strengthening from the storm as we do have it on the back end of an up level Ridge which is where our two other invests are located but they don't seem to be taking advantage of anything because they're not getting any stronger at least on the models right now light wind shear for those environments just to the north of though we do see that subtropical jet which would keep anything from strengthening if they continue to move out to see and that's why we see with at least on this model run td7 uh struggling to strengthen as just to its North is that higher wind shear so it's allowing that dry air to infiltrate some of that low pressure system keeping the thunderstorm convection to the Eastern side of that low pressure system now if you look off the Southeast coast of the United States you see a big blob of green and then it Trails uh like a loop out to the middle of the Atlantic all the way up to Europe that is our frontal boundary and if we look at the next day on Saturday the 14th we have lo and behold a low pressure system of vorticity signature trying to develop thanks to that upper level trough that we mentioned overhead that's going to be providing that lift mechanism in the upper levels of the atmosphere so then by the time we get to Monday September 16th it is now making its way towards the North and South Carolina coastlines one of those areas potentially could see uh a landfall from this non-tropical low if it gains tropical characteristics it could gain the next name on our list with td7 the Lone Wolf out in the middle of the main development region on this map 5 days from now uper level environment not conducive for it to go further developing but we as we see some of that wind shear starting to increase in the region and that's going to cause some dry air intrusion but look behind it an orange coming off the coast of Africa another strong tropical wave so by the time we get to day seven on Wednesday September 18th a week from now we see that potentially developing rapidly coming off the coast of Africa and near the Cabo verti Islands as well like td7 did so we'll keep an eye on it here's the European model showing pretty much the same thing A Little Bit Stronger with td7 be it's that model shows the strengthening of a strong tropical storm maybe a hurricane out in the middle of the Atlantic and if blink if you miss it the potential subtropical storm that goes towards South Carolina here's the Ensemble models showing where all of our entities could go over the next seven days so we'll continue to monitor France scene and the flooding impacts it's going to bring to the uh South Southern United States if we see any impacts from invest 94 l in the Caribbean islands or 92 L td7 if it becomes Gordon and then will we see disturbance 3 become our next tropical system after that so Gordon's the next name on the list which will likely go to the td7 and then after that maybe if the other two invest 92l or 94 L don't get uh developed disturbance 3's chances of becoming Halen RF that as a reminder we have super thanks available on the ciphering weather so if You' like to donate to the Channel please go down to the heart button where it says thanks thank you for watching this video if you liked it please hit the like button and leave a comment please share this video with your family and friends on social media and if you new and like detail with the breakdowns hit the Subscribe button and notification Bell to get all of my upcoming videos thank you and have a great day