Tropical Depression ‘Likely’ To Form In Gulf of Mexico This Week

ACTIVITIES, FOOTBALL GAMES, WHAT HAVE YOU, BUT SOMETHING ELSE THAT WE HAVE HAD THAT'S BREWING IS THE TROPICS. YEAH, WE ARE LITERALLY LESS THAN 48 HOURS AWAY UNTIL THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON. THAT'S WHERE WE WANT TO BEGIN THIS MORNING, BECAUSE WE HAVE ANOTHER LITTLE DISTURBANCE THAT WE'RE TRACKING FOR YOU. IT'S ACTUALLY A TROPICAL WAVE. AND YOU CAN SEE IT RIGHT HERE. IT'S IN WHAT WE CALL THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THAT, OF COURSE, IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AND IT'S ALMOST A BACKWARDS C SHAPE. RIGHT HERE IS WHERE THAT IS KIND OF BEING NESTLED AND HUGGED RIGHT NOW. WINDS CURRENTLY AT 30MPH WITH A BAROMETRIC PRESSURE OF 1005 MILLIBARS. AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SAYING THAT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, IT HAS ABOUT A 70% CHANCE OF FORMATION INTO AT LEAST A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, AND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT WEEK HAS ABOUT AN 80% CHANCE OF FORMATION. SO LET'S DO A QUICK DEEP DIVE INTO THIS REAL QUICK. THIS THING COULD STRENGTHEN AND WHAT WE CALL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY VERY QUICKLY. AND IT'S THE REASON WHY OUR FRIENDS IN THE GULF AND THE GULF COAST STATES OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA HAVE GOT TO WATCH THIS LIKE A HAWK, BECAUSE BY THE TIME WE GET THROUGH YOUR DAY TOMORROW, ON MONDAY, THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT THIS COULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY INTO AT LEAST A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE PERHAPS BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. SO PERHAPS EARLY IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, A COUPLE OF OUR FORECAST MODELS, AS WE REALLY START TO LOOK OUT INTO, SAY, MID TO LATE WEEK THURSDAY, PERHAPS CALLING FOR A HURRICANE TO DEVELOP. SO AGAIN, IT DEFINITELY BEARS MONITORING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE ARE JUST LESS THAN A COUPLE OF DAYS AWAY FROM THE PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON. HERE'S WHAT WE HAVE GOING ON. WE HAD A DISTURBANCE OR A LITTLE INVEST 90 L THAT WAS SITUATED TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE OF TEXAS. WHAT WE'LL SEE IS A LITTLE MERGER TAKE PLACE WHERE BOTH BOTH OF THOSE TROPICAL WAVES START TO COME TOGETHER, ONE FROM THE NORTH AND THEN THE OTHER MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. AND THAT'S BASICALLY WHERE WE'RE EXPECTING THAT FORMATION ZONE TO BEGIN. IT IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS SUPER CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. WE DO NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF WHAT'S CALLED WIND SHEAR. THAT'S BASICALLY WHEN THOSE WINDS UPSTAIRS, IF THEY WERE SUPER FAST, THEN THAT WOULD LITERALLY DECAPITATE THE TOP OF A GROWING STORM. THAT'S NOT THE CASE. SO THAT'S WORKING IN OUR FAVOR FOR THIS THING TO BECOME WHAT WE CALL VERTICALLY STACKED WITHOUT ANY INHIBITION. THIS IS ALSO IN AN AREA WHERE THE WATERS ARE PLENTY WARM. IT'S BEING STEERED AND GUIDED, GENERALLY SPEAKING, TOWARD THE NORTH AND RIGHT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST, AND COULD MAKE LANDFALL IN PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. YOU THINK ABOUT PLACES LIKE LAKE CHARLES, RIGHT ALONG I-10 AND JUST GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, TONS OF MOISTURE FOR THIS THING TO PLAY WITH. THIS IS WHAT OUR FORECAST, WHAT WE CALL SPAGHETTI PLOT, IS LOOKING LIKE. THAT SOLID YELLOW LINE BEING OUR CONSENSUS, OUR CONSENSUS MODEL. AND AGAIN, KIND OF WHAT THIS WILL DO IS THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THIS OVER THE WARM OCEAN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO, REALLY JUST KIND OF FUELING THE FIRE, IF YOU WILL. AND THEN NOTE THAT THAT YELLOW LINE WILL ZERO IN RIGHT HERE ON WHAT COULD BE, YOU KNOW, LAKE CHARLES, BY THE TIME WE GET TO THURSDAY. FRIDAY IS AN AREA, KENDALL THAT WE GOT TO WATCH OUT FOR, BECAUSE OBVIOUSLY THIS IS ALSO AN AREA THAT'S RECEIVED TONS OF RAIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN IS GOING TO LEAD TO SOME SERIOUS FLOODING CONCERNS. THAT'S EXACTLY RIGHT. INVEST 91 L REALLY HELPING TO ADD TO THE WETTEST START TO SEPTEMBER. A LOT OF LOCATIONS HAS EXPERIENCED SO FAR, SO A BIG ISSUE. WE'RE TRACKING IT EACH AND EVERY STEP AS ALWAYS. AND SPEAKING OF REALLY KICKING OFF THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER ON A SOGGY NOTE, I WANT TO SHOW YOU SOME VIDEO FROM JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS PORT ORANGE, FLORIDA. THIS WAS YESTERDAY. NOTICE ALL OF THE PROLIFIC LIGHTNING OUT OF PORT ORANGE, AND THEN JUST HOW HIGH THE FLOOD WATERS REACHED ON FRIDAY. SO WE'RE THINKING OF THE SUNSHINE STATE. WE'RE THINKING OF THE ENTIRE GULF COAST REGION BECAUSE OF WHAT WE'VE EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS MONTH. BUT GUESS WHAT? WE'VE GOT A LOT MORE STILL TO COME. AND THAT IS UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE AID OF INVEST 91 L. SO HERE'S OUR FLASH FLOOD THREAT MONDAY, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AND NOTICE WE'VE GOT A THREAT EACH AND EVERY DAY FOR MONDAY. IT IS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THINGS. SO YOU HAVE TO LOOK VERY CLOSELY DOWN IN SOUTH TEXAS. SO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI, NEAR BROWNSVILLE. THEN ON TUESDAY, WE REALLY START TO SEE THE HEAVY RAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AND THEN IT PEAKS IN INTENSITY BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WORKWEEK. SO BY WEDNESDAY, WE'LL REALLY BE WATCHING AS RAINFALL TOTALS WILL ADD UP, WE COULD SEE PERHAPS UPWARDS OF EIGHT TO AS MUCH AS 12IN OF RAIN. SO A FOOT OF RAIN ON TOP OF THAT ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. AND YOU KNOW THAT THAT IS GOING TO SPELL SOME SERIOUS TROUBLE. SO NOTICE, AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT ITS WAY NORTHWARD, THAT'S WHEN ALL OF THAT HEAVY RAIN IS GOING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. SO IF YOU LIVE RIGHT ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST OR THE I-10 CORRIDOR, ALL THE WAY OVER TO THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA, YOU NEED TO BE PREPARED BECAUSE WE ARE GOING TO BE IMPACTED BY ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN. HERE'S WEDNESDAY NOTICE WE ARE LOCKED IN WITH HEAVY RAIN FROM SOUTH TEXAS ALL THE WAY OVER TO TAMPA, AS THAT BOUNDARY IS JUST STALLED ACROSS THE REGION, HELPING TO ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. SO BY THURSDAY, BY THE END OF THE WEEK, NOTICE IT STARTS TO SHIFT ITS WAY INLAND. WE COULD SEE POTENTIALLY THE SYSTEM COMING ASHORE SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AND SO THAT WOULD MEAN THAT THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR ALL OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY A LITTLE FURTHER EASTWARD. SO OUR FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT WE WILL HAVE KIND OF THE SWATH OF HEAVIER RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN ONCE INITIALLY THOUGHT. SO NOTICE THE STRIPE OF ORANGE THAT DOES GO RIGHT THROUGH PLACES LIKE HOUSTON, LAKE CHARLES, ALL THE WAY OVER TO NEW ORLEANS. I MEAN, UPWARDS OF 5 TO 8IN WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE. BUT EVEN AS FAR INLAND AS PLACES LIKE JACKSON, MISSISSIPPI, ALL THE WAY UP CLOSE TO BIRMINGHAM, ALABAMA, HEAVY FLOODING, RAIN AND THE REST OF THE AREA WILL ALSO GET IN ON SOME OF THAT HEAVY RAIN AS WE HEAD THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. SO HERE'S OUR EXCLUSIVE FOX MODEL, AND IT DOES INDICATE AT LEAST THIS LATEST RUN THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD COME ASHORE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, PERHAPS, MAYBE EARLY WEDNESDAY NEAR GALVESTON, OVER TO LAKE CHARLES, AND THEN IT WILL ADVANCE ITS WAY EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD. I SHOULD SAY, AT THAT POINT. BUT THIS IS GOING TO SPELL SOME SERIOUS TROUBLE FOR FOLKS LIVING ALONG THE GULF. YOU KNOW, INTERESTING ENOUGH TO KENDALL, IT'S NOT JUST INVEST 91 L THAT WE'RE TRACKING. WE ACTUALLY HAVE 92 L IN THE MAIN DEVELOPMENT REGION OF THE ATLANTIC. AND THEN YOU CAN SEE RIGHT BEHIND THAT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE THAT WE'RE MONITORING. SO IT'S THE CONGO LINE, IF YOU WILL. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE 91 L AGAIN IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD BECOME OUR NEXT NAME SYSTEM SHOULD THAT HAPPEN. THAT OF COURSE WOULD BE FRANCINE. SO WE OF COURSE WANT TO DO A DEEP DIVE INTO THAT. YEAH. SO WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THE SEASON AS A WHOLE, WHEN WE WERE HEADING INTO IT PRETTY MUCH ALL FORECASTING AGENCIES WERE SAYING THIS IS GOING TO BE A BLOCKBUSTER SEASON. AND IT'S BEEN A VERY INTERESTING ONE TO SAY, TO SAY THE LEAST. BUT IT HASN'T BEEN QUITE BLOCKBUSTER JUST YET. MIND YOU, WE STILL HAVE A LOT OF TIME LEFT, BUT WHAT WE ARE WATCHING IS THE FACT THAT YES, WE'RE STARTING TO SEE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOP AND AS OF RIGHT NOW, WE'RE RUNNING BEHIND SCHEDULE. WE TYPICALLY SEE THAT F NAME STORM BY LATE AUGUST, BUT I THINK IT'S VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL HAVE OUR F NAME STORM WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ABSOLUTELY. AND AGAIN, IT'S INTERESTING TOO, WHERE THIS 91 L IS, BECAUSE YOU'LL REMEMBER THAT WE HAD TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO, WE HAD HURRICANE BERYL, AND WE ALSO HAD TROPICAL STORM CHRIS THAT ALL IMPACTED THE EAST SIDE OF MEXICO. AND SO WITH WHAT COULD BE FRANCINE NOW IMPACTING THE EAST SIDE OF MEXICO, WE'RE TALKING ABOUT FOR AT LEAST IMPACTS, IF NOT SIDESWIPES TO MEXICO AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS SEASON. SO FAR THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME SERIOUS FLOODING. AND YOU LOOK AT THE WATER TEMPERATURES IN THAT BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 88 DEGREES. AND KENDALL, THAT'S BATHWATER. YEAH THAT'S THAT'S THE PROBLEM. IF YOU'RE WANTING SOMETHING TO BLAME, IT'S THOSE INCREDIBLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, A RECORD HIGH HEAT CONTENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THOSE HOME GROWN STORMS HAVE JUST BEEN TAPPING INTO IT AND JUST TAKING OFF. AND SPEAKING OF TAKING OFF, WE'VE GOT THE HURRICANE HUNTERS. THEY'RE ALSO GOING TO BE HEADED DOWN TO SURVEY THE SYSTEM. THEY'LL BE DEPARTING FROM BILOXI. SO SCHEDULED TO TAKE OFF ABOUT MID-MORNING THIS MORNING, AND THEN THEY WILL BE IN THE STORM ITSELF ROUGHLY BETWEEN 12 AND 7:00. SO THEY'LL BE COLLECTING THAT CRITICAL DATA, MICHAEL. AND WE WILL BE USING THAT TO HELP REALLY DETERMINE WHERE EXACTLY THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NEXT. YEAH. AND YOU KNOW WHAT'S INTERESTING TOO? YOU MENTIONED SOMETHING THAT I WANT TO BRING UP A QUICK LITTLE POINT TO IS THE FACT THAT YOU CALLED IT HOMEGROWN. THE PROBLEM IS THAT IS THAT THIS IS NOT FORMING IN THE MAIN DEVELOPMENT REGION WHERE WE HAVE DAYS, IF NOT A WEEK, TO PREPARE. IF THIS THING SPINS UP AND WHAT WE'RE, AS WE'RE EXPECTING IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS COULD BECOME A NAMED SYSTEM, IF NOT A HURRICANE, YOU HAVE VERY LITTLE TIME TO PREPARE BECAUSE OF HOW CLOSE THIS IS TO THE UNITED STATES COASTLINE. SO AGAIN, JUST TO REITERATE, COASTLINES OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA, IT'S NOT A WHOLE LOT GOING ON RIGHT NOW, BUT THINGS COULD REALLY GET TRIGGERED REALLY QUICKLY OUT OF THAT.