TROPICAL UPDATE: Tropics Getting Active Late September?

Intro good afternoon everyone it's David schlow here with another detailed tropical weather outlook and discussion for Saturday September the 14th 2024 so Watching A Few Areas here's a look at the latest G 16 true color visible satellite imagery courtesy of tropical tidbits decom Dr levian there's a link in the description below this video so as we do take a look at the entire Atlantic we have a lot of subtropical moisture Mischief going on down here we have an area of disturbed weather off the Carolina coast that may become our next subtropical system as this actually develops out here and then curves back onshore into the North Carolina coast over the next 7 days we have tropical storm Gordon out here that is not going to be threatening any land this is still expected to turn north eventually and so right now this does look to be an out to sea storm or a fish storm and then later on in the September time frame we're going to have to keep an eye still on the main development region and then eventually into the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico taking Latest NHC Outlook a look at the latest 7-Day graphical tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida and as you can see here we do have tropical storm Gordon with Winds of 45 mph minimum Central pressure of 1,4 mbars movement is generally Westward at about 9 to 10 m an hour and then here is our other area of disturbed weather off the Southeastern us there is a 40 to 50% chance of that developing into a subtropical type system could bring a lot of heavy rainfall Gusty winds and maybe even some high surf for these areas so keep in mind uh we will be talking about this system if Trends continue to go up on the chances in fact Surprise Development let's briefly talk about that disturbance off the Southeastern coast of the Carolinas and as we can see here on the GFS model this is the surface wind plot in miles per hour and as we go into the next 24 hours or so so this is for Sunday morning we do have some pretty strong winds here of about 40 to 50 mes an hour so this would be certainly a subtropical like system that does develop here and then continuing to strengthen a little bit more by Sunday afternoon you could see here winds from the Northeast at around 50 to 60 M an hour this would be definitely a subtropical like system developing off the Carolina coast South Carolina North Carolina Wilmington North Carolina is down here so definitely some strong winds there some heavy rainfall and some flooding and then that really tries to consolidate as it gets closer right over Wilmington North Carolina by Monday morning so this would be in about a day and a half to 2 days out when this would be making landfall so anyone living in the North and South Carolina area really needs to be watching the system very closely as moderate to heavy rainfall is expected in fact when we take a look at that rainfall forecast over the next 3 days we can see that rainfall totals anywhere between 2 to 4 in up to four to even 5 Ines along the North Carolina coast over that 3-day time frame so again flooding is certainly a possibility here my gosh you guys have had too much rainfall from with Debbie now we're dealing with possibly Helen our H name storm if it does get named from the National Hurricane Center wouldn't surprise me at all and so anyone living here really needs to be monitoring the progress of this system as to develop development into a subtropical storm or a tropical storm is certainly possible in the next 2 to 3 days you could even see this from the European Ensemble forecast indicating quite a bit of rainfall here anywhere between about an inch to a couple of of inches maybe up to 3 Ines of rainfall off the North Carolina South Carolina coast including for Eastern Virginia but not only that there to be also more enhanced rainfall and shower and thunderstorm activity over the Alabama area Mississippi Tennessee and portions there of Arkansas where you might see an additional 2 to 3 in of rainfall so now Watching Late September with that being said let's look ahead at the forecast on the GFS model this is our cyclonic relative vorticity our geop potential height and our winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere so these color shading indicate how much spin there is in the atmosphere so this is vorticity another way to kind of show you all where a lot of energy is being focused for these low pressure systems and then the lines here indicate your geop potential height so a topographical map of the atmosphere where there's more air the ridging there's higher Heights and lower Heights indicate more troughing and unsettled weather and our wind barbs here are indicated with these little flags with two little barbs coming off of them that shows us our wind speed and direction I know it's a little bit to in that's why I'm being a little simple in this video but we can see um in the next 24 hours or so so by the Say by Monday or Sunday morning that is we can see there is our tropical system that we are going to be watching along that frontal Zone that decaying frontal boundary we have another area of spin on the Eastern side of that and then the GFS indicates there is Gordon so a few areas to watch out there right now in the Atlantic let's go forward and see what happens here in the next 3 Days by Tuesday you can see that disturbance moves Inland of the Carolinas also in Virginia by Tuesday or by Monday night into Tuesday morning but that's not it we're going to have to keep an eye on what goes on with this area of disturbed weather there's a lot of vorticity or spin-ups within this margin of envelope of energy which area wins out there's been a lot of wild Chaos Theory going on with the GFS either this tries to consolidate quickly and moves out this way or this tries to consolidate and just kind of hangs around out here in the middle of the Atlantic but both scenarios here do not indicate anything in the way of a landfall and in this case the 12z GFS in the next 10 days does indicate we could get a name storm but again way too far out 10 days out and the reason why it's too far out is if we look at the previous run of the 06z run from last night nothing and then nothing on there so it's very hard to believe if this is actually going to be on the next run probably not so probably going to bit put a big X on that for right now nothing to be concerned about down here in the Deep Tropics nothing to worry about maybe a couple of tropical waves that could try developing later on in the period and going all the way out in time still not seeing much in the way of development however we are going to have to still keep an eye on the Caribbean and the golf of Mexico for that Central American J Mischief we could see some tropical development out of that then maybe more activity maybe maybe coming off of Africa but still in all the intertropical Convergence Zone is still way too far north for this time of the year and this is kind of awkward to see that so we'll see if that moves further south eventually but it doesn't look like it's going to do so anytime soon at least in the next 10 days the European model has a whole different scenario and little bit of different thinking on what happens on off the eastern coast here of the United States so we can see here on the Euro the system does take a little bit more time to consolidate so in 51 hours it is still off the coast here of South Carolina versus the GFS has it more further north into North Carolina but we can see here there is Gordon here is more tropical energy coming off of Africa in the next 3 to 4 to 5 days you can see by day five that area of disturbed weather is just hanging out out here in the Eastern us where we have another area of bundled energy that's what the GFS also indicated the Euro seems to also think the same reasoning in fact the euro is kind of on top of the previous GFS model runs indicating maybe a little bit of a consolidation here of a system briefly um that would be Gordon as it moves generally Northeast but looking far out in time here in the next 10 days there is not a whole lot going on off of Africa maybe a couple of trop waves but really again look at this big Monsoon G right here really strong we have winds out of the West here out of the South here winds curve around like this here is that monsoonal G and we will see what develops off of that this look at the Growing Signal On Our Ensembles latest European Ensemble prediction system so these are different members folks this is not showing us oh we're going to at four five or 10 hurricanes all at once out there in the end of September these are different members giving us different solutions or ranges of possible outcomes so we can see there is still that signal coming off of Africa towards the end of September so beyond that 26th that 27th time frame we are seeing a chance of tropical development we're also keeping an eye on the Northwestern Caribbean and the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico for some tropical development here we can see some members here popping that up some tropical storm tracks but not much of a signal out here in the Caribbean just yet again it is getting towards the end of September here on this forecast and so Cobo Bird Season really um settles down by the time we go into late September and early October anyways but because of how far the intertropical Convergence Zone is we could still see some cap bir season going on here well into early October the Noah GFS version 12 Ensemble forecast here really still on top of it with some tropical development out here in the Northwestern Caribbean in the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico even in the southwestern Atlantic I mean if this does come true folks if this signal really stays and if the Euro catches on to this we could still see some tropical storm maybe a hurricane even a couple of major hurricane tracks here but again this is very far out 384 hours out this is well into the very end actually this is the last day of September so again very far out in time but it is really really worth taking note of in Future model runs if this signal sticks over here because this would be a big deal maybe a tropical storm hurricane or even a major hurricane we still have some signals coming off of Africa here with some Ensemble members picking up on tropical development here you can see some of the graen tracks indicating 1,000 to 1,0 mbar system so this would be tropical depression type tracks and even some blue colors here indicating maybe a tropical storm but the signal here is somewhat minute versus over here in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean and again this is through the 30th of September really far out in time now the Favorable Environment Coming reason why there is some signal on the gfsn European Ensemble forecast for tropical development in the Caribbean and in the Gulf of Mexico in the next 16 days is because when we look at our control velocity potential anomaly so green areas here indicate upward motion into the atmosphere so you can see all this upward motion favorable environment coming over the Atlantic again we talked about this beyond that 23rd 26 time frame we're seeing that favorable environment and there may be a big outbreak of um potential here over the middle of September so between the 19th through the 23rd we have all this upward motion we have another pulse of upward motion here and another pulse of upward motion here and so in all this is looking really favorable for tropical Genesis perhaps through the end of September again between the 21st in the Caribbean in the Gulf of Mexico and then the rest of the Atlantic by the end of September we'll see with what the GFS and Euro models show down the road still very far out in time but I'll tell you the Atlantic is getting ready to open up for business for a flurry of activity even the GFS Ensemble control member is showing the same thing um sinking motion now so unfavorable environment over the gulf or over the Gulf of Mexico the Caribbean and the um the main development region of the Atlantic things get really more active here with all that upward motion like I said beyond the 24th to 26th of September going to really open up here in the Atlantic so we really got to watch things we really do and it is still hurricane season and and even so we're not at the peak of hurricane season anymore we're on the decrease still got to watch the topics maybe the peak waits for another 2 or 3 weeks maybe this season is 2 or 3 weeks delayed from where it typically is but anyways if you did enjoy today's detailed tropical weather outlook and discussion for Saturday September the 14th 2024 please subscribe to the YouTube channel folks it really helps out the channel so much share this video with their family and friends leave a comment in the section below this video and also please um ring the bell notification icon if you did subscribe to the channel 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