Invest 98L, Hurricane Ernesto Forecast. Is an Arctic Blast Coming?

Latest update hey happy Sunday everybody Mark again here weatherman plus I'm going give you the latest update on what's going on with invest 98l it will become hurricane maybe even major hurricane Ernesto and potential impacts that's coming from this I'm still showing we got to watch this wave it could potentially do a Lee and bring some impact not only towards Bermuda towards the Eastern Caribbean maybe even all the way towards Puerto Rico as well so I'm going to show you latest information on that and what's going on with this cold air coming down uh in a few weeks had some people ask me about what's going on with this Arctic blast and I was kind of confused cuz I told Texas about their Arctic Blast coming two months early and kind of notifying people and I stay on top of that and I never really seen anything coming in but I'm going to show you the latest information so I'm going to give you the accurate information in this video if you've never been here before make sure you subscribe I am all year along with my weather forecasting I always put timestamps in the description to help save you time there's also links in there so you can see latest information and latest forecast on your precipitate ation and your temperatures official forecast from August September and October that way you know what to expect hope you all had a great weekend so far please share this information to other people just hit that like button down below does so much for the video let people see what's going on cuz they're hearing there's an Arctic Blast coming that could last for a few months and it's just ridiculous now first off Latest tropical update let's go through the tropics real quick it will be faster you can see invest 98l it is moving West as 16 mes hour but the majority of them is taking it to where it's going to turn very early it's going to turn right over here by the Eastern Caribbean by the northern islands and head north immediately now that's good news I do have links in the description also for your rainfall and your wind gust what your impacts could potentially be now you can see the latest information from National Hurricane Center and you can see that abrupt turn even if it's on the southern side of this that is literally the worst case scenario for Puerto Rico and the Eastern Caribbean islands and that is it then ver Bermuda as it goes out but is at 70% chance in the next 48 hours and 90% chance in the next 7 Days showing on the latest intensity guys this storm will strengthen and intensify quickly and with the high pressure retracting back in the beginning this is going to help it just carry right into the Atlantic and you see literally in 48 hours more likely will be a tropical storm I tell you this because in 48 hours to 72 tops is when it's going to be passing by the Eastern Caribbean then it's not going to be nobody's threat but bermudo after that maybe 72 hours or four to 84 hours 3 to four days it'll be on a strengthening hurricane phase towards Bermuda and still show it can go all the way up towards a major now you can see here from automatic tropical Cyclone forecast showing it will be somewhere around 48 hours to 72 hours passing by the Eastern Caribbean and Puerto Rico you can see this with all the ensembles so the impacts of a tropical storm maybe a strong tropical storm on the edge of being a hurricane is going to be yall potential impacts and you can see potentially it could go a little bit further to the West still but the majority of them we're talking 90 plus percent of them is showing this will turn and in five to six days be somewhere towards Bermuda you can see this on other models as well when you go by the Canadian showing that sharp turn matter of fact Canadian takes it even sooner where there's no impacts and this goes right by and we do need to watch out for Bermuda and you can see with GFS showing about the same thing we got that sharp turn these are eventually going to turn anyway they going to be a major hurricane strengthening that's going to pull it tighter towards that high pressure and just maybe the northern half of the Eastern Caribbean the British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico that's about it Puerto Rico you're less and less likely to be in these impacts you can see this on layest probabilities with the eural just chances to be a tropical depression that it is favoring to pull North right as it does and then intensify again in the northern Atlantic now you can also see when you look at vorticity you can see multiple things you see here with the Euro has it starts strengthening up and it starts going to the north we can also see at the same time that we're getting our Northern Jet Stream going straight across the northern half lower 48 this is bringing yall these cooler temperatures you have now and it will be around for a little bit longer as that goes out into the Atlantic then you can see we're going to start get this big High Ridge building this is going to be a big High Ridge of heat that is going to be coming in soon and this is going to go all the way way into Canada but you do have some heat coming in and that is for sure matter of fact we're going to be above average on our heat anomaly all the way until our winter comes even during our winter we're going to go from a linia that we're going to stay in through winter and go back towards a neutral phase that way we'll be above average for our winter temperatures on the lower half of the lower 48 the northern half lower 48 is going to be a little bit below average but not by much now no things can change but you can see the trend look with the Euro start strengthen up after it passes by Puerto Rico that would be very minimal impacts on anybody still got to watch out for Bermuda not showing Turks and Kos Bahamas not showing any issue with that while that goes potentially right over Bermuda now when you look with GFS you can see almost the same thing that GFS strengthens a little bit sooner so does the hurricane models remember we can't see these hurricane models unless we have a system but still showing is going to turn quickly out to the north and go the same place right towards Bermuda now when you look with the hwf the hurricane miles you can see it's taking it all the way down to a strong tropical storm and try and become a hurricane right before impact as you go by Wednesday now this will bring some wind and some rain on the Eastern side as that passes by see that's a few Islands few of y'all y'all need to watch out for this but as far as Puerto Rico and as it goes further to the West there would be no impacts on y'all because of that track you can also see this when you look at another hurricane model at hon showing the same thing almost a little bit further to the north but showing it tries to become a hurricane at the last second still too far away to be bringing any big impacts so I have this link in the description for you this is a precipitation got another one for wins as well that way you can see what your impacts are on the right you get icon GFS and I put icon in there because icon is the only one that was correct on Barrel you can see for the next 5 days as this passes by might bring an inch to northern half of the Eastern Caribbean a little bit towards Puerto Rico British verion Islands maybe the Eastern side of Hispanola could get some of those impacts when you go by to Euro it's further to the north and you're getting more rainfall towards Puerto Rico and the islands a little more instead of one you getting two to three Ines and the GFS takes it a little bit further to North but agrees that it will be somewhere around the northern islands so anywhere from Marique all the way to St John's all the way to Eastern Puerto Rico y'all need to be aware of this precipitation it is trending that it will be in y'all Direction the most than anybody and you can see also with the winds so as you go with the icons showing chances for the winds to build up this wind gust for the next 5 days you can see also with the Euro taking that Northern track bringing everybody averaging 40 maybe up to 50 mph wind gust more likely be in the 40s but when you go by the GFS it takes it a little bit stronger it could go 50s and then quickly go to the 60s and head to North but at the same time you see how I don't go further to the West what you got to watch for is potentially later this could travel all the way towards Bermuda bring yall rainfall and winds as well now let's go through your temperatures I see this everywhere it's about about to be an Arctic takeover last for months I want you to have the accurate information everybody you see for today Latest temperature outlook that you did have some cooler temperatures in the morning it was brought down into the 50s matter of fact you can get used to this pattern of our jet stream just coming across in a northern half lower 48 like that bringing these temperatures around for a while but then we're going to get this High Ridge that's going to build bring in a lot of heat and then later on maybe we'll get a cold front or two that could bring these temperatures right back again nothing super bad nothing freezing or something you need to really worry about it'll help you take out of this heat a little bit now you can see for your highs for today it's going to ramp right back up again you're going to be in your 90s across the South and the southeast you're going to be all the way to 100 for the South Central and still over 100 to 105 for the southwest and the northern half of the lower 48 is going to be somewhere in the 70s the high 70s now for tomorrow it's coming right back down again so you got some cool nights so really enjoy those cool nights so when we go by the data to see what's going on with this Arctic oscillation you can see your Arctic oscillation you have cool air that's going to slowly come in it's going to hang out for a little while and slowly go back up now when you have an Arctic blast something very cold coming in these anomalies will dip like this so when you're sitting here looking at this right here this little line going across this is staining on the northern half of the lower 48 and that is it it's not even showing a lot of cold are coming through when you look with the GFS it shows it's not even going that low and already on his way back up to where it's leaving where it could last maybe a week maybe 10 days of what you're feeling right now nothing super major coming so here's your anonomous you can see from your extended range from the 16 members as you go from the 11th of August through the 17th you're going to stay above average temperatures for all the orange and the red and you're going to be below average a little bit in this blue this is not bringing dramatic temperatures then when you go from the 18th of August and beyond all the way to the 24th you going to start getting that higher Dome that big High Ridge of heat building in and those cooler temperatures are going to leave you're going to be a little bit below average on the Southwest which will be good yall in some very high heat right now and you're going to be a little bit below average off the coast in the Northeast potentially because of tropical systems so as you go by your 2 metor temperatures and look at your 7-Day average you can see right here by GFS as you go through August that those below average temperatures are going to move away by the time you go to late August you got below average over here for the Western of the lower 48 you got some moving in through Canada as well but you got above average in all this red and as you go through August look how that just hangs around and you get some spots of average this white means your average temperatures so when you get some nice fall temperatures coming through it's nothing super major all the way to the middle of September maybe some below average temperatures start moving through the northern half of the lower 48 and a little bit along the Southwest like we seen by the climate forecast system so as we go with the Euro The Ensemble prediction system there's your medium to long range your 7-Day anomaly you can see all the way to the 15th of August that you have the below average temperatures moving through y'all feel those now those are the 40s and those 50s that are moving through and you got still your warm temperatures in the South now as you keep going forward you can see those below average temperatures leave and by the time we go into the 20s of August just like I just showed you that you going to be well above average temperatures you going to have a big dome of heat that's going to be moving in with a High Ridge where this gray is it's going to be your average temperatures for this time of year there's nothing rare about it you're going to be a little bit below average over here towards the West Coast lower 48 also moving in towards Alaska now as you go from August into September look how that below average temperatures leave and you just stay average temperatures along the east coast but everyone is above average temperatures all the way into September but as we take a look at what the meteorologists say just to say something else besides what I'm trying to tell you you can see here tools are in good agreement favoring above normal temperatures across the majority of the lower 48 with certainty across Northern Plains into the center of the country where a possible early linia impacts so remember these links are in the description so you can go read it for yourself the full forecast the updated temperature outlook for August 2024 favors above normal temperatures across much of the contiguous us and most of the Northeast half of the Alaska Mainland maximum probabilities exceed 60% over the middle and southern Atlantic coast states and 70% over central portion of the Interior west of and above average temperatures this broad expans of favored warmer than normal temperatures is supported by the 30-day European Ensemble forecast also the 30-day weighted GFS and a climate forecast system V2 temperature forecast and is consistent with the most of the dynamical model guidance and official temperature outlooks now to be totally fair are not all the way impartial to what all the other meteorologists are saying maybe as we go by climate forecast system as we go all the way to 440 hours away by the end of August you might have a below average anomaly kicking in for the Upper Midwest coming through by August 31st moving through a little bit deeper and then moving right out just as fast but you can see that as we go all the way until then we are going in that big High Ridge of heat it's not going to be no big cool down coming anytime soon if this was to happen remember it's only showing by this weather model that you still got the 50s that's going to be rolling through as you're go towards the end of August that's what you're dealing with now heat coming back every single day every single day see every single day you get used to this you got the heat we got the cooler temperatures now maybe according to this model as you go all the way from the end of August into September maybe you have some cooler temperatur start coming in where you might start feeling the 40s come through you see that now we are almost 500 hours away I want you to know that we are literally 500 hours away and maybe some 40s can come through as we go towards the end of August the beginning of September still bringing those 50s but maybe you can get those 40s coming through with that front you see that all the way to September 2nd maybe not a definite though you can see here from a climate forecast system V2 that as it goes in all the way to August you see how you got this anomaly you got the below average temperatures kicking in all the way for August now as we go all the way to the end of August look how we got the above average temperatures kicking in we got a little bit below average just like it was predicted by the meteorologist and that's it all this white is your average temperatures for the this time of year as we go by the end of August September look it stays on the northern half and that is it and that is what's forecasted it's going to stay around the west and around the northern half of the lower 48 once it gets around the Great Lakes it's going back up on that High Ridge everybody's going to stay in this one this is all the way to September 30th then maybe after that stay in that pattern some more all the way to October 30th I truly hope this has helped you understand what is coming around the corner not only with this system that's coming through what is going on with the temperatures cuz in my opinion a lot of Special message us here on YouTube we really care about people and we really want to help them know what's coming around the corner with the best confidence and accuracy we can when there's singled out people out there that does this craziness all it does is fall upon us and we'll even hear about it they'll come back and say hey you said an Arctic bus you got the wrong guy it wasn't me and they mix this up all the time so it really hurts the community when when they do things like this but I truly hope yall have a very great day today and a very peaceful Sunday before you go real quick Psalm 68 1-3 let God arise let his enemies be scattered let them also that hate him flee before him as smoke is driven away so drive them away as wax melteth before the fire so let the wicked perish at the presence of God but let the righteous be glad let them Rejoice before God yes let them exceedingly Rejoice amen have a great day everybody I'mma keep my close eye on the tropics I don't trust any of these tropical waves anything can always so happen but I will keep you updated remember all glory does go to God our Father in Heaven Yahweh and I always hope he keeps you safe every single day of your life you and your family and everyone that that is around you and forever amen hallelujah amen so far it's not looking like anything special or freezing cold or anything is coming through maybe something in 30 to 45 days for a week I'll keep you updated so far just enjoy your cool nights cuz the heat is coming back