This Storm Will Be Worse Than Expected... I Can't Believe It

in today's video we're going to be diving into the upcoming pattern discussing a potential cooldown that is upcoming in the medium range we're also going to be diving into what is now expected to become a hurricane slamming into the Gulf Coast this tropical Cyclone has really taken a lot of people by surprise but it's in reality the one that we've been tracking across the Atlantic for weeks now has finally decided to develop over the southern Gulf of Mexico and unfortunately will be bringing impacts to the Gulf Coast and even further northward into a lot of the eastern states there is other storms to discuss including tropical ones so we're going to be diving into all of that today let's dive into things take a look at it and I'm going to be showing this regularly I think it's important to kind of go over the past uh and and kind of recognize what we've seen so I want to try to make this a common place in our videos but we do see below average temperatures have really been the trend over the past 7 days here and this is valid as of today on the 9th so we're looking at the 2 through the 9th here a lot of Texas the Midwest the Mid-Atlantic here has been pretty far below normal for a 7-Day period to see the dark Blues into the greens is a significant departure from what's typical that means all of these areas over the past 7 days have averaged being 10° approximately below normal so that is very very significant and it all comes due to this warmup that we've had here for these areas where we've seen really warm temperatures along the west coast and I've me mention this time and time again but this causes the cold to spill down into the southeast of this warm air mass and we do see that occurring here just as kind of expected we've talked about this for a while now let's talk about the future we do have our tropical system here located here across the golf it's currently according to this model3 I think it's a little bit lower than that we will look at the National Hurricane Center's cone forecast in a little bit they do expect this one to become a hurricane not too long from now and then eventually slam somewhere into Louisiana likely Texas Mississippi still should keep their Radars up no pun intended but be on the lookout for any potential shifts to the Easter West in this track regardless Texas even Mississippi Alabama and Florida will be seeing precipitation from this system so it will impact you guys in some shape or fashion let's take a look at tomorrow afternoon and where we're at with this one a much stronger system 996 and sometime tomorrow night into the next day Wednesday morning is when we expect to see that upgrade to Hurricane status it is looking very healthy on satellite and we've mentioned it but the waters are very very warm out there and I wouldn't be surprised to see this one overperform and by overperform I would be talking about category two and up at this point so keep that in mind let's take a look at what ends up happening by the time we're reaching Wednesday afternoon and we see this one down to can't even tell what it is I think 982 so it is now rapidly intensifying as it's approaching Louisiana as you can see bringing precipitation to all of these areas to the north of it some winds could start to pick up already by this point on Wednesday afternoon and definitely the flooding potential will get going now as far as the jet stream is concerned we have something along these lines again we talk about it as like a very subtle uh a very subtle kind of jet stream as it moves Eastward this should bring pretty neutral temperatures to a lot of the East uh above average certainly here below this Ridge and uh below normal here to the West of that Ridge kind of in the Pacific Northwest we do see a lot of storms coming on Shore as we have a racing jet stream off the Pacific kind of surging northward here across the Rockies this is going to bring these guys quite a bit of precipitation over the next few days here is well let's look at the strike here we get it at some point between Wednesday and Thursday maybe overnight there this is 2 a.m. on Thursday and we see a 977 mbar tropical system likely hurricane slamming into Central Louisiana bringing precipitation to many different states here as you can see pretty far spread expect some pretty strong winds significant uh storm surge could be possible and flooding is certainly going to be a possibility with this one although it is a quick mover so it could be worse but I don't want that to make any of you downplay it there is a lot of uh precipitation expected here at this point we continue to see showers taking shape here across the Northwest Northern Rockies and even the southwest of Canada there so that is going to continue to be the case as we reach Thursday afternoon we see this low as still rather strong probably still a tropical storm between Arkansas and Mississippi there and also in the corner there where Louisiana meets with those two states so somewhere in there is where we're seeing this tropical system located as it weakens expect to see the precipitation spread out we see that often times so a pretty far stretching area of precipitation as a result of this tropical system we do see a 992 shaking shape between uh Wyoming and Montana here Jetstream is kind of doing an S around these areas um what we see is cooler air being allowed to move in here with warmer air really trending to the north here that is why we're seeing our first little bits of snowfall here between Montana Idaho and Wyoming there very interesting we're going to be seeing a lot more of that coming up so this is just a sneak peek into what to expect moving forward by Friday afternoon we see the heart of our tropical system is somewhere between Arkansas and Missouri still a lot of precipitation spreading out further and further throughout the southeast even the Midwest and Ohio Valley here as well we do see that this precipitation has subsided a little bit up there for the Northwest we still have a low here in Saskatchewan I think that's what that province is but we see precipitation dipping down into Montana Idaho and Wyoming let's take a look here as we move towards Saturday here on the 14th heart of your tropical low is going to be here really really dive down by this point but we still see the kind of the the impacts left over from this one still around so that is definitely going to be the case here uh let's take a look at by time we're reaching Sunday afternoon and this storm is continuing to die down so we are seeing this storm really uh slowing down as you would expect the jet stream ridging well over the United States here into Canada so expect overall warmer temperatures here across the Central and some of the eastern states although there is some back door cold we see some dippage in here some back door cold still able to make its way down the East Coast here which has been a common Trend here uh over the last few weeks so let's go ahead and move this forward towards Monday on the 16th and we see some heavier precipitation throughout the Central and the southeast States here um definitely uh interesting to say the least probably still associated with that tropical system uh we see across the Northwest here we're seeing precipitation as this jet stream is still trying to uh do a trough there along the west we're seeing storms being allowed to move in with that overall lower pressure which is typically located within troughs so we are seeing a very interesting setup here let's take this one step further towards Tuesday and we see this this Ridge is expanding so is the trough out west we're seeing something like this so cold air pushing into the West I know you guys have been really really hot lately so this is going to be a welcome site for many of you plenty of storms around for all of these areas showers snow showers even for Wyoming Idaho Montana Maybe even Colorado there stronger low over eastern Montana but some other low pressure systems around which is going to work in tandem here as you can see bringing precipitation to many different states as we move towards Wednesday on the 18th we see this low from Montana moves northward 991 again into maybe Saskatchewan there we see a low developing over Nebraska here 998 and this one is pretty significant warm front here we see some Rising thunderstorms to the south of that which isn't too uncommon um so that storminess is expanding throughout the Midwest and some of the Gulf States as well there and then as we move into a little bit of Thursday we see this low really really uh just weakens we see thousand and2 there maybe between Nebraska and Kansas precipitation really really common here throughout the Rockies and Midwest still and we're seeing snowfall even for Utah Wyoming Montana maybe even Colorado here so those Rocky States seeing continued snowfall let's take a look here at the total precipitation and what we're seeing is that the northern Rockies are likely seeing an above average amount in this pocket also for a lot of the Gulf Coast here with our tropical system even stretching up into the Midwest should be above average in the Browns we're seeing 5 to 10 we're seeing some of that here associated with this tropical system even some of these Blues approaching Louisiana could come on Shore if we see a trend in a wetter Direction that's it's going to be 10 to 15 in so again could be worse we've seen these tropical systems that are slow moving be worse than this but this is kind of the expected amounts that you would see with this type of system so I would say about average for the intensity of the storm we're seeing we are seeing uh highly above average precipitation due to that for a lot of these areas you can really tell where the storm tracks and spreads out over these northern areas that's why we see the area get larger and larger we can see a lot of the Northwest and Northern Rockies as well as some of Western Canada in this above average category as well and we remain below average throughout a lot of the Plains Midwest Great Lakes and then even the east of Canada into the Northeast Mid-Atlantic and portions of the southeast there let's take a look at the temperature anomalies currently still under this cool down we do have warmer air on the way we can see this uh East Coast Area tries to remain cold again we have some back door cold air kind of moving east of the appal mountain range there while the rest of the Central and Eastern states for the most part are above normal this area here is going to be from our tropical system these often times bring colder temperatures underneath them and we're seeing that take place here look at these lows or the high temperatures on Thursday actually we're seeing about 15 to 25 degrees below normal in these blue areas and that is definitely a far far amount from your averages so we're seeing far below average temperatures here underneath your tropical Cyclone which again is quite common kind of equally to the north here we're seeing above average temperature for a lot of the Midwest Northern Plains and Great Lakes while we see this cold air mass build for the West which is really allowing for this warm up to take place here in the Central States uh we really get a lot of the same here this colder air mass kind of sticks around there for the West we do see signs of Colder times here in the East where we're kind of getting these areas in the below normal area and then up to the north warmer so pretty upside down compared to what you would expect but this does happen from time to time and we really get a lot of the same until about the 21st here this is when things get interesting so I gave you guys a little bit of a teaser there but above normal temperatures start to spread in for the west and usually this is the beginning of what pushes these cool Downs Eastward so we see this take shape that warmup rapidly expands for the west where we're seeing almost the entire Western United States and western Canada warm up and this forces this cold air to the southeast here much like what we've seen here in this recent pattern far below normal temperatures this is Tuesday the 24th the greens are 10 to 15 Dees below normal and some of these Blues in here being 15 to 25 so another Hefty Arctic blast moving into the eastern states and that last through the 25th here on this GFS model that is beyond 10 days out so take it with a grain of salt I'll have a little bit more of Some solid uh kind of thoughts on this a little bit later on but for now that is kind of what I'm seeing now the CFS daily model as we look at these 5day increments here's the 10th through the 15th 15th through the 20th warming up in the east as you can see without the the exception of that East Coast same for the 20th through the 25th we see this Western cold a mass really taking hold and then 25th through the 30th we're not really seeing the big cool down on this model so another reason to be a little bit skeptical and take it with a grain of salt will definitely track it moving forward though we do see the 30th through the 5th we see an expansion of that cold in the East where it warms back up though we do see a more solid cool down for the 10th through the 15th time frame and even the fifth through the or the 15th through the 20th time frame of October could get towards uh Halloween time in a little bit of a below normal pattern here for a lot of the East only time will tell of course here's the next 30 days overall as we look at it we see below normal for the West which shouldn't come as a surprise we saw this trending in on all of the models we looked at today warmer for a lot of the East and Central States but with the exception of this gulf coast up the southeast where some slightly below normal temperatures could Prevail we're seeing agreement there on all of the models we today as well your European AI model again I got I've got a lot of comments like if this isn't good then why do you even look at it it's really interesting to me I think it's for entertainment mostly you know we would never go solely off of this model yet I don't think versus the European model or the GFS model uh it's not up in that Echelon yet but what's kind of interesting about this European AI model is that they have allowed it to kind of update and improve itself as it goes it's it's learning from what it's calling for it's comparing what it's calling for versus what happened and ultimately that should should show improvement over time uh so we're going to continue to monitor this and and wait until we start to see successes on this model I think that's going to be interesting if we can be a part of that history because this might be the future of we weather models I know a lot of you might not like to hear that but um if if these AI models can do great then then that's that it's going to help many people out and I think everybody should feel pretty positive about that um I'll be curious to see if we get more of these models in the future I know there is another one available here on weatherbell which I use every day uh we don't really view that one as much I think this one being in the European model family is makes it a lot more interesting of course now we see our golf system we also see plenty of activity in what we call our MDR that's a little big uh right here is your MDR and this is the area between Africa which I'm drawing the coast there and then the Eastern Caribbean in between there it's called the main development region short is MDR and that's because it's the main area where we see development often times although most of our tropical systems have not come from here or developed in here this year which is shocking considering we have record high temperatures in this in the ocean in this area which should give it just you know we should be much higher as far as the amount of storms we've seen and really unfortunately the amount of Devastation we've seen but we really Haven it we've been very fortunate and I think everybody should also be happy about that I'm just sharing positivity today I guess that's the theme of today's video Let's watch the golf system we see that one develop not quite as strong as the European model slamming into I would say further east in Louisana than what the European model shows we'll have to see if that ends up coming true or not and then we see that one break up and expand over time we do see some action in that MDR area but really nothing develops too much even through the end of this model run as you can see on the 24th we don't ever really see anything come together so that is the theme here from this European AI model as of now speaking of the MDR let's dive into the 7-Day graphical Tropic weather outlook we will dive into our newly named tropical storm Francine in just a moment but let's talk about these areas in the MDR shortly and we have one further west here this one has a 60% chance of development both through the next 2 days and through the next seven so even if it doesn't develop over the next two days there is still a rather High chance that it does develop after that more than the flip of a coin so odds are we will see development of some shape in this system the one to the east of it though closer to Africa there does have a 30% chance of development over the next 48 hours which is lower obviously than that one to the west of it but over the next s days it does have a 70% chance of development which puts it into that code red category of being a high chance of development so we're going to have to watch this one very very closely although it is heading kind of towards the Northwest this one probably has a better chance of just being a ocean storm than impacting much land but we'll have to wait and see as history tells us you know these things can do unexpected things we do see the cone forecast here for tropical storm Francine we see this one is expected to become a hurricane by 7:00 p.m. tomorrow on on Tuesday uh a remaining hurricane status until it slams into Louisiana this uh the National Hurricane Center is showing 7:00 p.m. on Wednesday about uh landfall in in Central Louisiana there before dropping down to obviously tropical storm status well Inland by 7: a.m. on Thursday just 12 hours later we'll have to see if they expect further development than even this or if we're going to remain in about a category 1 once all things are said and done we're only 14 milph away from reaching uh hurricane status so this one has really good chances of hitting at least hurricane status we'll have to see if it can develop further than that though we will keep you guys up to date with this of course here is this European AI models spaghetti model plot and what we see is that a lot of these uh individual models are showing this storm get a lot stronger 60 70 even 80 knots being forecasted in here on some of these models before slamming into Louisiana this would put it as a very very strong storm even compared to what the National Hurricane Center is calling for so some model guidance to suggesting that this one could be a problem speaking of problems the MDR storm actually the further west one in this case we do see a lot of these members bringing it towards maybe maybe the Bahamas and Southeast here really really uh kind of unknown at this point we do see some curving this one out to sea but some are just tracking straight west which is a dangerous look and getting this storm very very strong even in the kind of 780 100 knot range which is very strong so take that with a grain of salt but this one does have a chance to develop into something big we do see a lot of these models also showing the further east system getting at least tropical storm status maybe Fringe hurricane status before curving out to sea so that one looks rather innoc innocent as far as land is concerned as of now of course we will be tracking all of these things over the coming days anyway guys thank you so much for watching this video like I said we will keep you guys up to date with all of these things so be sure to subscribe we do upload every single day you can even hit the Bell icon for daily notifications when we upload so you never miss one be sure to like the video if you did enjoy it leave a comment down below and I'll see you guys in the next video