This Weather Will Look A Lot Different Next Week...

Overall Setup good afternoon everyone happy Labor Day weekend hope everyone out there is enjoying time with the family we've got a lot to talk about in fact we've got two big shots of cooler air are going to be pressing southbound over the course of the next week plus an update on the tropics as they are starting to get a little bit more active so let's take a look at the setup going forward here we've got the ridge of high pressure that's pretty much going to been dominant over a good part of the West and the Pacific Northwest but it's going to be completely the opposite once you head eastbound we have another significant trough that's diving southbound and that cool front is likely going to stall somewhere in the vicinity down into the southern regions and that is going to produce these overrunning type setup so it's going to drag that cooler air mass down so you're going to feel the difference in the air plus it's going to give daily rain chances or opportunities for those areas to cross the Southern Plains as much as the southeast so if we expand the view and take a look at the satellite picture you can see what's happening we've got this little tropical low it's about a 20% probability of favor and in fact theyve just downgraded at 10% because it's just so close to land but nonetheless those areas just right off the coast there can get some very heavy rainfall with this activity you can see the sharp gradient the sharp demarcation line of kind of the drier air because back behind it you don't really have much precipitation for those areas across the north it's all across the South that's getting the abundance amount of rain in spots some of these can produce some heavier downpours in the locations that are actually seeing a an embedded heavier shower or thunderstorm we do have an Overview area of disturbed weather that's out here in the Atlantic that's expected to continue to move Westbound and could likely get into the Caribbean over the next five or six days so the National Hurricane Center is obviously keeping an eyee on that and so are we but right now uh our main concern going forward is going to be this little cool front that's going to be a bring a really nice respit of all the hot conditions you've experienced over the summer and bring some rain cooled air for those areas into West Texas folks yeah these areas are in a very desperate drought out there so they need actually all the rain they can get and it's really just around this boundary literally from Arkansas back into into Tennessee all the way up into the Carolinas have the most favorable shot of seeing some showers and thunderstorms and it's all about that cool front because it's again going to move a little bit further south as we get into the day on your labor day and as it does that's actually going to be spinning up a little bit of an area low pressure out here into West Texas again and have that area again more favorable produce the to produce the heaviest amounts of rain a little bit lighter amounts as you head towards the Dallas Warth area and then even lighter amounts as you head into the southeast but nonetheless Florida is going to get a pretty good soaking from this particular situation on a daily basis with that kind of stalled or kind of lingering frontal boundary that just kind of sits there and continuing to drag down that cooler air so these are areas of loft where where some of that surface low is going to be sinking southbound so you can see these drier slot you know sockets that's a that's rain cooled air essentially underneath that and so they're welcoming that in a big way while much of the Northeast as well is cooling off in a big way and it's feeling a lot more like fall up here into into the Northeast while it's definitely not going to be feeling like fall in much of our northern states and especially those areas across the Northwest we're talking areas of like Montana back into the dtas they're going to be heating up in a big way by the time we hit into Tuesday actually well into the 90s but that little verticity is going to be fairly potent that's probably going to be your biggest rain producer of the week with this area of low pressure that's going to be kind of sitting and spinning right here into West Texas they actually could be picking up some is sighted flash flooding is definitely not out of the that out of the equation with this scenario you can see it better on the satellite picture that area of disturbed weather National Hurricane Center has a 10% probability it's just kind of way too close to the coast to form it to anything tropical but nonetheless they do have that area to watch uh but further north is that instability with that area of low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere so yes those areas into Oklahoma portions of a good part of Texas and then reading along this boundary into the southeast and into Florida while again the northern branch is kind of left high and dry uh so here's the setup you know going into Tuesday you can see the abundance amount of rain they do have a slight risk for excessive rainfall so it's really right along that where that low pressure is that's where you're likely going to see some the heaviest amounts of anywhere from like say one to three Ines you likely can't roll out even some I said it higher amounts both on Tuesday and Wednesday coming up across that region and yes that continues during the day on Tuesday that actually bleeds into Wednesday as well so it's kind of a very wet time period especially for those areas in Texas that been been kind of bone dry over the summer months and with that cool front it's going to bring those cooler anomalies and drag that cooler air a little bit further south so you're definitely going to be feeling it if you're not feeling it now in most of the areas you're definitely going to be feeling it by the time we head into Tuesday with that cooler anomalies First Cooler Shot really sinking all the way down into the Deep South while the ridging kind of takes over again and kind of reinforces itself over a good part of of the Northwest and portions of Canada and again it brings the dry socket back to into those same areas it brings the wet the wetter times back into a little bit further south so now for those areas into say South Texas into along the I 10 say I20 Corridor you're going to be the more favorable you know shots of opportunities for rainfall during the day on Wednesday so if we break it down for you over the next several days this is between now and Wednesday you can definitely see the dry slot right so it's all about the cool front that's going to drop behind it so there's not much happening in a good part of about 30 states there but further to the South that's where all the precipitation is in much of Texas Oklahoma good part of Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama into Tennessee into Kentucky essentially into Florida Georgia the Carolinas those areas is up here into Virginia you're basically in all the action over the next several days at least on the rainfall front so we do have some tropical systems it's been kind of a very significant lull on the tropical front it's been several weeks right now we do have several areas of concern but they still it only gives it about a 40% probability of actually forming to a storm this one has about a 20% and the further into the coast only has about a 10% because it's just so close to land so higher probabilities this continues westbound so but we are going to be watching another cool front that's going to be reestablishing itself over the US and going to be sinking southbound and I think that's going to be helping steer whatever may become down here into the Caribbean so this is likely going to continue further Westbound and most of the Ensemble members likely put it into the Yucatan or or Central America even if it does form and then with the cool shot coming in that I'll show you a reinforcing shot into late next week that should likely keep whatever may maybe to come out of the system well to the South and push it down there in the Bay of cichi and back into uh Central America but there's the reinforcing shot of another cooler air mass that will be coming out of Canada so you have the kind of a onew punch if you will you're going to be experiencing the cooler anomalies now if you're not feeling it now you definitely be feeling it Monday and Tuesday for sure and then this is a reinforcing shot of cooler air that's going to be coming in unfortunately it's going to miss you guys in much of the Second Stronger Cooler Shot West and the Pacific Northwest but it's not going to miss you in much of the Central and Eastern 2third of the US with that cooler breakdown coming down from the from the from Canada all the way down again this likely goes into the Deep South as it kind of builds into next weekend a good 10 to 15 Dees below average will be coming back in the picture for much of the Great Lakes much of the Ohio Valley and this will only sink into the Tennessee Valley and eventually reach back into the Southern Plains again with that reinforcing shot of cooler air so this is what I'm talking about these are actually high temperatures as you go into next weekend we're talking well into the 60s folks and this is highs for Wisconsin you know Michigan those areas into Minnesota bleeding down into the low 70s so that's a really comfortable fall like air mass going to be coming southbound and a reinforcing shot and even the 80s to sink all the way down to the coastline so pretty much a lot of people are going to be feeling this cooler air mass are going to be reinforcing itself over a good part of the Central and Eastern 2third of the US and if we look at the humidity values by the time we head into into Sunday there's that secondary shot of cooler air and the drier air on the backside so this cool front will likely again be the kind of the steering mechanisms what may be to come out of the tropics there forcing it anywhere into the Central America areas and if there's any moisture left it would likely spread it as far as more rain probabilities into the State of Florida but right now we're we're going to be still watching that system out into the Gulf of Mexico so we still got that reinforcing shot of that cooler air mass continue to come down this would be next Sunday time frame so 7 days from now again another reinforcing shot of another 10 15 at times almost 20 degree below average air drifting southbound into the Ohio Valley bringing those cooler more pleasant light conditions for a good part of the Eastern areas and there's right now over the next 10 days as a probability of this becoming a tropical depression so right now we have a low probability National Hurricane Center has it a 40% probability of even getting named a storm we have a much higher impact now this would be likely seven days from now possibly up to a 90% chance it could be a tropical depression as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula and then eventually maybe continue Westbound and probably feeling the effects of that cooler shot that's going to be coming in into the US and likely keeping whatever it is that tries to form well to the South into Central America but nonetheless we'll be watching this in the days ahead so guys I appreciate you guys are watching do like this video definitely hit the Subscribe button and catch my next update why I protect you before and after storm