The Next 48 Hours Will Be Critical...

It's September 9th, 2024, and there she blows,   quite literally. Look at that thing spinning  around down there in the Gulf of Mexico,   just soaking up all of the ocean heat content that  we've been hooting and hollering about. We finally   got ourselves a real tropical threat out here in  the Gulf of Mexico. This is Tropical Cyclone Six,   and as you can tell, we've got a lot of convective  towers going up around the center of circulation.  It's a strengthening tropical system, and  it's going to continue to strengthen as it   heads straight for the United States. Here's  the latest from the National Hurricane Center.   Currently Tropical Cyclone 6 has 50 mile per hour  sustained winds and it's moving north-northwest at   5 miles per hour. This is going to be a tropical  storm more than likely by the time you're watching   this video. It's gonna be Tropical Storm Francine  and then we expect it to become Hurricane Francine   early Wednesday morning around 1 a.m. around 1  p.m. Wednesday. It's gonna be getting close to   category 2 status more than likely as it gets  very very close to the Louisiana border and   then sometime between 1 p.m. Wednesday and 1 a.m.  Thursday likely late in the evening on Wednesday   this thing's gonna make landfall in Louisiana  somewhere alright now it could be as far west   as extreme eastern Texas it could be as far east  as extreme southwestern that that little tip part   of Mississippi but more than likely it's gonna be  somewhere in south-central Louisiana where we see   a landfall from Hurricane Francine and then  from there this thing's gonna rocket up the   Mississippi River up into the upper Midwest and a  lot Of us are gonna see some storms and some rain   as a result of this thing But before we talk too  much about the inland effects here Let's go ahead   and talk about the hurricane like how strong  is this thing gonna get what's it gonna be like   when it hits land Here when it makes landfall,  well very quickly. It's gonna go from a tropical   cyclone a tropical storm to a hurricane It's going  to undergo, not necessarily rapid intensification,   but something very close to that, as it  enters an extremely favorable environment   for cyclogenesis and just the strengthening  of hurricanes, mostly because of the ocean   heat content and the sea surface temperatures  out here. So very quickly, this thing is going   to go Category 1, Category 2 strength out  here in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. It   wouldn't surprise me at all if we even saw this  thing eventually flirt with Category 3 status.  However, this model, the HFSA, and pretty much every other model,   does start to weaken the storm a little bit  right before it makes landfall. Notice how   we've got maximum winds around 100 mph here  on Wednesday, Sept. 11, early in the morning.  And then by the time this is  making landfall in Louisiana,  maximum winds are closer to 70-80 mph, which is still a very strong storm. It's   still a hurricane, but we're not looking at  the trend right now, at least in my opinion,   where we see intensification all the way up until  landfall. It does look like there's going to be a   moment of decreased intensity right before it  makes landfall. So it really all comes down to   the next 48 hours. They're super critical, right?  How strong this thing gets over the next 48 hours   is going to determine how much of an impact this  is going to have on the coast because it is going   to drop off a little bit right before it makes  landfall. So if only ever makes it to Category   1 status, it may make landfall as a tropical  storm. You understand what I'm saying? But if   it gets up to Category 3 or higher, this could  make landfall as a pretty intense Category 1 or   Category 2. So that's one of the main things  that I'm watching right now. This is another   very good model for tracking hurricanes,  the HAFSB. This actually shows maximum winds   around 115 miles per hour early in the morning on  Wednesday. It's a little bit slower. It allows for   more time over the Gulf of Mexico, but still, even  though this flirts with category three status,   it makes landfall with winds around 80 miles  per hour. So we're looking at pretty much every   model doing this, all right? We see it get really  strong and then it weakens right before it hits   Louisiana. And if you're wondering why that is, something that we talk about a lot here on the   channel during hurricane season is wind shear,  okay? And that's what we're looking at on this   map. This is showing wind shear where we've got  varying winds with height. This stuff is like   kryptonite for hurricanes. All right. Hurricanes  are little babies. They can't stand it. They have   to have the perfect little environment to thrive.  And if you throw like if you throw a tiny little   gust of wind in the wrong direction in the  upper levels at a hurricane, it completely   falls apart. And we've got more than a gust of  wind going on down here in the deep south. OK,   we've got an incredible amount of wind shear. And  this hurricane is going to get caught up in that   and that's likely what's going to cause it to  weaken upon Approach to the coast despite the   fact that everything else is perfectly set up  for a strong hurricane here So that wind shear   is going to kind of absorb our hurricane and  it's going to fall apart It's still going to   be a very strong storm though I just I really  don't think that we have to worry about that   rapid Intensification right up until landfall like  we have with a lot of the recent hurricanes that   we've covered regardless life-threatening  storm surge strong winds, power outages,   flash flooding, all that stuff's going to be on  the table here in portions of Louisiana, maybe   even over into southern Mississippi as well. Once  this makes landfall, it's not over. This is going   to continue to go up the Mississippi River once  again and it's going to cause some strong storms,   maybe some severe weather in the Deep South and  some flash flooding here. A lot of these places   are desperately in need of some rain. In fact,  the low-pressure center is going to be right over   Memphis on Friday early in morning and this is  going to be dumping well over a couple inches of   rain in the Memphis area and surrounding areas  and I know that you guys can't wait for that.   But some of the rain might fall so quickly that  it becomes a little bit of a problem. In fact,   between Jackson, Mississippi and Lake Charles it  wouldn't be out of the question to see four to six   inches of rain. Some places between Lake Charles  and New Orleans could see up to a foot of rain   in a very short period of time. even up there a  little bit farther north between Little Rock and   Memphis for example, some of those places will get  more than four inches of rain in a day or less. So   that could definitely lead to some flash flooding  problems even though we are in need of some rain   in a lot of these places. And that's why we've  got a moderate risk of excessive rainfall and   flash flooding in the Lake Charles area down into  southwestern portions of Mississippi and a slight   risk all the way up the Mississippi River and  mid-Mississippi River Valley up into the boot   heel of Missouri as well. So you guys get ready  if you live in a flood prone area and you live   anywhere in the yellow or especially the red Zones  make sure you watch those creeks and streams and   rivers as we're gonna see a lot of water coming  out of Francine And I tell you what, it's not just   Francine that's gonna be causing a sink We've got  other things to talk about out here in the Dagon   Ocean as well We've got two areas of interest plum  way out in the main development region that is   kind of being overshadowed right now by tropical  cyclone six so there's two more storms forming out   here possibly two more hurricanes that we will  eventually be talking about probably around the   time that we stop talking about Francine so keep  that in mind the seven-day graphical tropical   weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center  continues to show several hotspots that we need to   be looking at. The good news is for the most part  a lot of the current modeling suggests that these   storms are not going be a problem for land. A  lot of these are curving the storm out to sea,   which is we love to see that. However, we've seen  this time and time again where in the beginning   you'll get this look and something changes and all  it takes is a slight variation in the projected   path here and then we've got a storm going into  the Caribbean. Or a storm that kind of escapes   that trough and doesn't get sucked up to the north  and now we've got to be concerned about the east   coast. I'm not necessarily letting my guard down  with this storm or any of the other waves that   are coming off of Africa, so we're gonna be  keeping a close eye on these. But obviously   the main focus right now is gonna be Francine in  the Gulf of Mexico. As far as inland forecasts go,   nothing is really changing outside of what we've  already been talking about on the channel. We're   gonna go through some roller coaster patterns  here where a lot of us are cool this morning,   a lot of us are freezing to death. I know I was.  It's daggone cool out there for a lot of us,   but that's gonna change. A lot of people who have  been experiencing this cool down now the six to   ten day temperature outlook is kind of flipping  on us and we're gonna get right back into the the   heat. We're gonna be much above average in the  Great Lakes region up into the northern plains   upper Midwest that area and we're gonna get down  below average in the West. This has been one of   the hottest and most humid summers in Southern  California's recent memory and there's gonna be   a shock to the system there with some very much  below average temperatures over the next week   or so. This is interesting it's gonna cause some  problems in the more distant future But for now,   it's just another part of the weather story where  the headline is still Hurricane Francine. If   Hurricane Francine makes landfall as a Category 1  hurricane or higher, we are gonna be live here on   this channel. It looks like that's probably gonna  happen on Wednesday. That's why we have a 60%   probability of doing a live stream on Wednesday.  So make sure you subscribe to the channel,   turn notifications on. Of course, we'll have storm  chasers out there, live cameras, radar, all that   good stuff. and we'll just hang out and hopefully  have a good time in an uneventful tropical system.   But of course, with every hurricane, there's going  to be problems. There's going to be tornadoes,   probably. There's going to be stuff that we  have to get serious about. So that's why we're   going to be there. Don't be scared. Be prepared.  Obviously, if you have interests along the coast,   you need to be taking this time to listen to your  local officials about potential evacuations. Storm   surge is a big problem in a lot of these areas  where the storm is going to make landfall. And of   course, flash flooding is going to be a big deal  with some of these storms. So keep that in mind.   And hopefully this thing doesn't blow up  like a lot of other storms have recently.  And we'll get past this one and we'll just start  thinking about the next one. That's all I have   for you today. Thank you so much for watching.  I'll see you in the next one. Goodbye. Whoop!