This Storm Could Be a Sleeper...

happy Thursday September 12th 2024 yesterday we had hurricane Francine and now here's what's left of it tropical depression uh Francine just hanging out in the Midsouth causing some problems today in terms of severe weather and also some flash flooding we've got another little system up here trying to produce some severe weather later today in Montana maybe working its way over into South Dakota and North Dakota as well and then we've got more activity back here on its way to potentially us so we're going to talk about all that today first and foremost here's the latest on tropical depression Francine once again made landfall yesterday as a category 2 hurricane is the strongest hurricane that's hit the US so far this year but we were live during the whole thing and to be honest with you thankfully it seemed kind of uneventful no injuries no fatalities have been reported thankfully and the Damage reports that are coming in are quite minimal and pretty much what you would expect with a category 2 hurricane landfall certainly still a lot of impacts though we've got you know well over 100,000 people still without power I'm just thankful it definitely could have been worse and now this is what's left okay we've got the depression that's going to be hanging out around Memphis for the next little bit and mostly we're just going to have to deal with rainfall as a result of what's left of Fran scine but today there is a chance that we get some severe weather as well as a result of what's left of hurricane Francine kind of pulling up some energy from the Gulf of Mexico there are going to be a few spinning storms in Alabama today portions of Georgia and especially the panhandle of Florida we've already had some tornado warnings today as a result of this we're going to continue to see that through the afternoon and evening all the way up there towards Birmingham so make sure you're ready for a tornado or two if you live in the yellow down there in the south and east now up there in the north and west wind is going to be the driving Factor Behind These storms you can see there's a 15% hatched risk of severe wind today in Montana and a little bit of South Dakota so make sure you are prepared for that these are going to be some BigTime storms today don't be scared be prepared things calm down a little bit tomorrow but we're still going to have a marginal risk of severe weather in the Southeast and things look quite similar on the day three Outlook as well where we're not going to see much movement at all with our severe weather risks because the remnants of Francine are just going to be kind of hanging out down here for an extended period of time and outside of just the slight risk for some tornadoes this is also going to bring a moderate risk pretty significant risk actually of excessive rainfall and flash flooding specifically between Tallahassee and Memphis with an emphasis on the Birmingham area so if you live out here in the yellow or red over the next 3 days you've got to make sure that if you live in a flood prone area you're paying attention to those creeks and streams and even Rivers as this prolonged rainfall could lead to several different types of flooding so especially around Birmingham this is going to be maybe 4 to 6 Ines of rain maybe even more than that in a relatively short period of time most of us are going to welcome this rainfall it's going to be nice but some of us it's going to come down fast enough to where it could be a problem even though it's technically needed here's what the radar could look like today around 1 p.m. Eastern as you can see the storms are going to be causing some problems today down here in Alabama Georgia and Florida probably we're going to see multiple tornado warnings today I wouldn't be surprised if we actually saw a couple of tornadoes so if you live down here you need to be hyper weather aware today this is also when we're going to start to see some of those hail producing and wind producing storms popping up over here in Montana and Wyoming moving over towards South Dakota and North Dakota if I push this into the future a little bit here we are at 900 p.m. a lot of our storms are going to be kind of dissipating at this time in the Southeast but we're still going to be dealing with our straight line damaging winds up here in the north so make sure you are ready for that but just look at our tropical system and how it's unwinding here it's not moving much at all and that's going to lead to another risk of severe weather as we go into tomorrow a little bit more isolated more scattered less severe overall but I I still wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of tornadoes tomorrow associated with this but it's going to be extremely scattered in nature and then also there's going to be several instances of flash flooding associated with this as well because these storms aren't going to move much and if you find yourself underneath one of these downpours one of these tropical downpours for 30 minutes to an hour you're going to get too much rain and this is going to continue all the way through at least 10 p.m. Friday and I think that we're going to see even more moisture interacting with this air mass as we go into Saturday and that's just going to add insult to injury for the people who are having to deal with the flooding but what happens as we go farther into the future Saturday once again we're going to continue to watch this area for a significant period of heavy rainfall and potential flooding what about Sunday pretty much the same thing the same Corridor is going to be dealing with moisture kind of hanging out here the remnants of tropical storm or hurricane Francine just don't want to go anywhere and they're just going to kind of sit there and cause scattered showers and thunderstorms for the foreseeable future really until we have a big cold front or trough come in that tries to sweep everything out of the way and that might be what tries to happen on Wednesday we get a pretty robust low pressure center that forms over here in the Rockies that's going to try to send a decent shot of cold air down from Canada and this is actually going to interact with a little bit of that moisture from Francine and the energy from Francine to maybe produce a multi-day severe weather event up here in the Upper Midwest so that's something that we're watching but even that's not going to sweep everything out of here the cold front stays pretty far north and we're going to be dealing with the scattered showers and thunderstorms for an extended period of time I think in the east coast as a result of what left of Francine but it is going to be quite interesting in the plains and then in the north central us as these two air masses interact with each other we probably see a couple different instances of hail producing storms and severe weather out here another thing that's really interesting is just the overall pattern change as you can see we're going to be much cooler than average thanks to the rainfall from Francine in the south and east but we've got this big bulge of warmer than average air that's going to be dominating the majority of the Central and the Northeastern United States and then that big trough that we're talking about is is going to be compiling building up the cold air back here and then boom it is going to try to unleash some of that during the period of time that we're talking about where we have the chance of severe weather but notice it doesn't cool things down a lot in fact the warm air is going to be really holding true to itself as we go even into Saturday September 21st so what this might do is you know once again continue to promote the pattern where we have scattered showers and thunderstorms pretty much every day over here in the East we're going to continue to feel cooler than average over here in the west and then there might actually be a decently significant severe weather period here in the central us that we have to be concerned about as a result of these clashing air masses 6 to 10 day temperature Outlook shows this very well warm near normal thanks to Francine much below normal in the west and I think where those really extreme temperature differences meet things are going to get interesting with the severe weather potential and I tell you what else is going to get interesting the tropics Francine was just the beginning I think of what will be our most active period of tropical weather as we go through the end of September we've got a couple different areas that we're watching these two storms have been on my radar for a while and it does look like they're going to try to do something as they approach Puerto Rico but I'm still not 100% confident that they're going to turn into a named storm we're watching those closely this over here I don't think we have to worry about that at all it's just going to be another thing that brings rain to the east coast but tropical depression 7 this is something that we definitely have to watch because I think that it's in a pretty favorable environment to turn into into our next tropical storm it'll be tropical storm Gordon and then what it does next is kind of up in the air the latest update from the National Hurricane Center shows the thing moving pretty much Due West it'll be a tropical storm sometime today and then once it gets out here what happens next is really important is it going to recurve up to the north that is possible we have some of those big troughs moving through the United States and those could kind of magnetize the storm towards it and then carry it up and out to sea or is it going to circumvent that and and maybe go to the west or more towards the South and maybe then come up through the Caribbean like this that is a possibility as well we're way too far out to know for sure what's going to happen there but the fact that any of those things are still on the table is enough cause for concern if you have interest along the coast this time of year anytime we see something like this we've got to pay extra close attention to it so outside of the severe weather risks today that's what I've got my eye on the next time you'll hear from me is when we have an update about this and if anything changes here a 60% chance of a live stream today which means that we're technically going to be on standby mode so we're going to be here at the weather house and if things hit the fan then we will turn the live stream on not likely but you know if we end up seeing more tornadoes than what we thought we would or if we see a significant situation where we could provide help with our tools and stuff then we'll go live outside of that the probability for a live stream is pretty low for the rest of the week our next video might be tomorrow but if not tomorrow then probably Monday we're really trying to make sure that we post a video every every Monday unless there's a reason to otherwise then of course we'll post one before Monday to make sure that you get a notification whenever that live stream or video comes make sure you're subscribed and you have the Bell notification turned on and uh yeah I'll see you in the next one goodbye o