Fall Forecast With La Nina Coming...

Overall Setup in this update we're going to be talking about the Enzo neutral pattern that we are currently in Plus update you on the hurricane season and as we make the transition into lenia heading deeper into fall and especially into the winter months so let's take a look at the overall jet stream on the expanded View and you can see these big heat domes of high pressure there's technically two of them one over the Rocky Mountains and also another one over the Tennessee Valley in fact you've got a lot of sinking air and the heat has been really building those areas across Memphis today into Nashville we're talking pushing the triple digit category but the conveyor belil of moisture has been inundating the further north in the jet stream you can see these spokes of energy that's been pushing across from west east that's what's brought all the severe weather as of late and kind of the conveyor belt of moisture essentially from the Northern Plains all the way through the upper Great Lakes as well as into the Ohio Valley in it to the Northeast while further to the South you've definitely been on the much drier side and overall the temperatures over the last two weeks we kind of been dealing with what's known as a aega blocking pattern we've seen these troughs come in off the West Coast bringing much cooler air but also much drier air then it kind of hits a roadblock across the middle of the country because we've got this big heat Dome that's really been building but then we have other vesses that's been diving diving diving South Southeast bringing those cooler anomalies back into the Ohio Valley and especially down here into the Carolinas as well but that transition is going to be on the move because this heat Dome is finally going to start breaking down and we're going to be looking at a little bit of a pattern change with the cool front heading our way so overall the last 60 days as we've been predominantly in this Enzo neutral type setup is Main the West Coast has been on the much drier side and there's definitely been Pockets across the middle of the country those places in a good part of Texas and as well as into Oklahoma but you can see where we've had the two disturbances the two tropical systems one down here for barrel and also Debbie that brought extensive heavy rain and of course they have the highest precipitation anomalies and then where we've seen these conveyor Big Changes Starting Labor Day Weekend belts of moisture of energy that's where we've seen the highest precipitation amounts over the last you know 60 days but we are making that transition as the heat Dome starts to kind of break down across the middle of the country we're seeing that subtle transition with the Heat going to be locked over the Missouri Valley and the T Tennessee Valley over the next couple of days as we have the much cooler anomalies are really going to be building up there into the Pacific Northwest those temperatures drop in fact there was an area up there in Montana that actually have some winter weather advis I taking place in some areas have changed some of the rain over to snow and especially in some of the higher elevations and that's the start of this much cooler air mass is going to be dropping southbound for your Labor Day weekend into the first couple of days of September and this is going to be definitely a noticeable change for you guys there in Texas and much of Oklahoma and Arkansas as well as into Louisiana none of that heat Dome you're going to be dealing with you're actually going to be dealing with below average temperatures for a first time in a while so that's definitely going to be a a welcome change while much of the Pacific Northwest is replaced by their own heat dome in a way not as not as intense because obviously we're going on the back half of Summer now but those cooler anomalies will be shifting further south and extending all the way down into the Southern Plains as well as into portions of the southeast into the Ohio Valley up into the the Mid-Atlantic but as as the cool front will be pushing southbound it's going to bring the moisture along with it and we are going to be looking at more of a kind of a stalled frontal boundary where that front stalls that's where the moisture is going to be so those got those areas that have been kind of drought stricken as of late for Texas and Oklahoma and much of Arkansas and much of Louisiana even portions of New Mexico but yes all those areas down here to the southeast Tennessee finally going to get in the action with some beneficial rains much of much of the Carolinas down to Florida even all the way up into Virginia while the northern branch has a little bit of a rest pit and kind of a a drying out period That's they're going to be kind of looking forward to because it's definitely been active as of late but here's the latest Enzo Outlook so we are in currently that inzo neutral we've been that actually for most of most of the actual uh you know summer so far we we shifted out of El Nino and transitioned into that Enzo neutral and the latest Outlook that came out on August the 8th still calls for more or less that Enzo neutral type conditions for the next month or two as La Nina is Coming we make that transition into linia so right now we have a 66% chance lenia starts sometime within September November time frame or we have a 74% chance lenia type conditions are going to be predominantly enforced for November all the way through January so we are expecting it to be a little bit more of a weaker lenia I don't expect it to be in the strong category so here's where we stand right now obviously when you have a Lenin you have much cooler anomalies out there into the ecuator Pacific what that basically means in layman's terms you have a much less active subtropical G Jet and a little bit more more active polar Jet and here's here's the setup on the Enzo where we stand and you can see kind of the the the average more or less your average that's what typically neutral means you're closer to the zero line right now we're at 04 so we're barely kind of hanging on to inzo neutral but we are going to be expected to kind of make that transition you can definitely see all the warmer anomalies as least as far as the sea surface temperatures go in the Atlantic that hasn't really been the problem on the Atlantic front it's been a lot of the the sinking air they've been dealing with across that region so here is the expected outlook for Enzo neutral lenia going forward so yes it's definitely not as bullish as some of the models were looking at maybe six months ago where they were calling for possibly a moderate or strong lenia that is definitely off the table that's not going to happen if anything it's going to be anom more of an Enzo neutral weak lenia transition heading deeper into fall and heading going into the winter months and if anything as through winter I think the strongest this Lenin gets is definitely favors to stay on the weaker side heading into the brunt of winter so Hurricane Season here's the problem in the Atlantic where we have not really seen too many storms now of course we're going into peak season but right now we don't really have much to track out there and it's kind of rare headed into the Labor Day weekend nonetheless but one of the issues is is the just the extreme amount of sinking air that's been really inundating these regions so you got to have some upward Rising motion air you can have all the warmer anomalies you want to in the world but if you don't have a lot more ingredients coming together you're just not going to get tropical activity uh some of the African dust lasted a little bit longer now that has subsided so we are expecting kind of an uptick which obviously September is your busiest month in the hurricane standpoint but it's still going to be on the Fairly slower side uh as we get through the rest of August so I don't think anything happens for the rest of August now we could see a little window right around the fourth or fifth or sixth time frame that we might actually get a a named storm so that's you know your peak season is September 10th and so where you see these red shaded areas that's where you have that sinking air so this is the main development region so but yes as you extend into the latter part of September and going into that first week or two of October it definitely appears to become a lot more bullish so definitely we are not done nonetheless but we do have five name storms and of course the Outlook was calling for like 23 name storms that definitely not going to get there uh but we are expecting you know obviously more tropical development and these are are some of the favored time slots we're looking at over the last next six weeks coming up after the maybe the September 4th time frame through the 10th looks to be a more active period and then looks to be a little bit more active again as we head towards the end of September through the first half of October now one of the things that's going to be influenced as far as the temperature goes is obviously the hurricane the tropical front right so I think we're going to have to watch for in close development so a lot of the a lot of pressures are pretty low down there in the Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeast coast we'll definitely have to watch especially as we have these cold friends kind of settling down further south than we typically most years we typically do so we'll definitely have to watch for like more inclose development and closer in development from the Caribbean and those tropical waves that obviously come off the coast of Africa but here's where we stand for the first you know that second week of September and it's definitely kind of hinting and keeping these these temperatures closer to that average um scale because it's kind of favoring more cloud cover more more you know rain across this region and then it keeps the those higher temperature anomalies for much of the Pacific Northwest and much of the Northern Plains region if you look at the precipitation front yes it's definitely hinting at a little bit more homegrown development down there off the southeast coast and into Florida through that first week of September so we'll definitely have to keep an eye on that from Louisiana to Mississippi to Alabama to Georgia all the way through Tennessee these areas are favored to be the highest prone area of above average precipitation and being possible an impact from some sort of tropical system as we head into September and it's favoring for the entire month ENT this region that's highlighted in blue this is where some of the the lower pressures are this is the probably the highest probability if you're going to be seeing a storm in the month of September Outlook September this is where I would likely look and the Far Eastern portions of Texas going through Louisiana through Mississippi and Alabama to Georgia through the Carolinas obviously much of Florida and then up the coast through North Carolina and up to Virginia that would be some of the favorite areas where I would expect tropical activity so if we look at the overall temperature front I think overall it's going to be an above average month for many areas across the country of course we'll have some cool shots at times like what we going to get for a Labor Day for sure but we are expected St you know activity to start to rebound and more or less kind of level off and keep on the above average side of course further north you live the further you live along the coast it's definitely favoring a little bit slightly closer to average or even below average just because of the higher probabilities of tropical formation and as well as the GFS is kind of implying the same way it's definitely favoring cooler shots with that Northwest flow that's coming in plus the overall tropical development that could unfold and just the abundance amount of moisture the lower pressures across the East so that is definitely favoring to have more cool shots than what may be to come for those areas out west and the climate Prediction Center is kind of favoring the same thing on their September Outlook is essentially anywhere along the coast the Texas coast especially a little bit more highly favored across Louisiana and much of Mississippi and especially those guys in Florida and all the really up up the SE Eastern Seaboard you kind of have to be on the lookout maybe not for direct impacts but more indirect impacts after they carry and come ashore with well above average drains across those regions but if we expand the view even on the can ships it's kind of hinting at more of that Enzo neutal kind of hanging on a little bit longer so it is you know favoring some of those cooler shots coming in from the north at times with those cool fronts coming in through September as well as into October and having those drier slots continue throughout the west coast and as we make that transition likely into full-blown l although staying on the weaker side it's definitely favoring kind of a textbook type linia type setup with a more of an active Polar Polar jet kind of get getting its act together as we head into the winter months keeps the colder anomalies alive and keeps the more you know the snower CH the snow chances alive along the northern branch and then with the less active subtropical jet it's keeping less less moisture down here for the South and with that would favor above average temperatures as we extend into the winter month so guys I appreciate you guys watching do like this video definitely hit the Subscribe button and catch next update why I protect you before and after storm