TROPICAL UPDATE: Watching Tropical Storm Ileana & The Atlantic...

Intro good afternoon everyone it's David schlow here back with another detailed tropical weather outlook and discussion for Thursday September the 12th 2024 so here's a look at the latest G 16 Overview through color visible satellite imagery provided by Dr Levi Cowen at tropicaltidbits.com the tropics still active out there and we have to still continue watching the main development region and eventually over the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean especially by late September in early October but in the meantime right now we have what is left of Francine this is a post Revenant low right now or the Revenant what is left with Francine over Tennessee over Alabama Georgia also for Mississippi including for Arkansas bringing a lot of rainfall Gusty winds and some flooding but we also have another area to watch still continuing on the National Hurricane Center there as that approaches the northern Winward islands and then we have another area that is now dubbed tropical depression 7 we will see if this gets named as it moves generally Westward and then we have another tropical wave coming off of Africa which we may need to start watching down the road once it gets over into this area eventually so this is Latest NHC Outlook what it also looks like on the 7-Day graphical tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center there again is post tropical Cyclone Francine now over Mississippi bringing lots of rainfall flooding and Gusty winds still we also again have tropical impression number seven over here this is the sixth advisory it doesn't seem to be coming together a whole lot for right now with Winds of 35 mph and again we're still watching the Carolina coast eventually but that seems to back down on some of the model guidance but it's worth watching still in this given time frame with a 30% chance of tropical development and then down here over into the northeastern Caribbean the extreme Northeast that is over the Virgin Islands eventually we're watching an area here dubbed invest 94l that has a 30% chance of tropical development now Tropical Storm Ileana Update before we do resume at looking at the Atlantic Basin the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean for the rest of this video it's a good idea that we do briefly touch upon tropical storm Ilana as this is moving to the north northwest at around 9 miles an hour it is going to be approaching Cabo San Lucas Mexico in the next day or two as it moves this in this General motion here's a closer zoomed in view looking at Tropical Storm Ilana for this afternoon here is POR viarta down here here is Cabo San Lucas Mexico so P viarta right now is getting quite a bit of heavy rainfall and some Breezy winds while over here in Cabo San Lucas Mexico we are just seeing a little bit of um cloud cover at the moment but what we really need to focus on here is what the structure of Elana looks like we can see we have very deep asymmetrical convection we have a low-l center that is spinning just to its Northeast so this is a sheared cyclone this is not a atypical Cyclone where we have a lot of banding Futures wrapping all the way around onto the upsher side for this to quickly organize and strengthen and otherwise we're seeing this Shear you can see the feathery white Sears hitting on it from the um right or from kind of the right side of the screen over to the left and we have enhanced outflow on the North Northwestern side so at the moment the system is battling a little bit of some northeasterly and easterly windsh of about 15 to 20 knots so now the question remains will tropical storm Ilana continue to intensify the answer is not really we're going to see only modest strengthening from here on out to possibly Winds of about 50 m an hour as it approaches Cabos San Lucas Mexico so we're not dealing with a major hurricane here nothing very strong at all but strong enough to where we do have tropical storm warnings out for Cabo San Lucas Mexico for the southern or Southeastern tip of Baja California we have tropical storm watches out for the central portion there of Baja California and right now it does look that this is going to weaken once it gets into the Baja California peninsula here where all this water is and it's thin and there's a lot of inter land interaction surrounding the system overall so the inflows are are able to get disrupted a little bit so this is not an optimal area for Al um for Elana to Contin continue to strengthen and it will be in its weakening phase by Saturday morning into Saturday night not like hurricane Hillary which was really strong down here and then turned in towards um the southern California coast um and this was back in last year in August so very different system and it does have a chance to weaken as it goes north northwest eventually here are the most likely arrival time of tropical storm Forest winds and again you can see Cabo San Lucas Mexico by 8800 in the morning on Friday with a 30 to 40% chance of tropical storm Forest winds for that area actually locally maybe a little higher but right now chances for tropical storm force winds are increasing but are not overly high this far out which means there is some uncertainty here on exactly how strong will Ilana get as it approaches Cabo San Lucas but all you need guys need to know is if you're doing any vacationing down here there's a lot of resorts I've been to one of those Resorts it's a very pretty area please make sure you stay up to date here on the channel and your local weather office your the National Hurricane Center and for any local officials that are down here to help you because again we are looking at a tropical storm here with winds of at least 40 to 50 m an hour now here's a look at the key messages for tropical storm Ilana again tropical storm Ilana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of West Mexico and Southern Baja California through this weekend heavy rainfall will bring the risk of flash flooding mudslides to portion of the area and again you can see how much rainfall is expected here again Cabo San Lucas could see up to 8 to even 12 in locally and up to the north there um in porson there I forgot where that is um about a foot of rain is expected so again we are looking at a lot of rainfall Baja California big S on Friday where tropical storm warnings are in effect as well so keep that in mind this is going to bring in some impacts but not the worst um hurricane or tropical storm ever recorded of course but this will bring impact now that we got tropical storm Ilana out of the way it's a good idea that we do focus on the Atlantic for the rest of this video so now the question Any Activity Coming Late September? really remains for everyone that is watching this part of the video will the tropics reawaken once we go into late September into early October for the rest of the Atlantic hurricane season especially for the Gulf Mexico the Ian and the southwestern Atlantic the answer is seems more likely than not that the tropics will get more active as we end out September into early October here's a look at the GFS model indicating our vorticity plot again the color shading here is showing us that vorticity the height lines here indicate our height Contour so a topographical map of the atmosphere and then our wind barbs here indicating which way our wind is blowing from so we can kind of get an idea looking at the lower half of the atmosphere on what is going on below the hood of the cloud cover so going forward here in time we can see what ends up happening uh along the Cal or the Carolina coast is we do have a decaying cold front this cold front has been able to spin up on Francine over the Gulf of Mexico and it might also spin up another area off the coast of the Carol there's still a lot of uh different es um uh amongst the models on how it handles this situation fronts like this are always tricky to pinpoint on which area spins up first which area dominates over the other area and so models are having a really hard time at resolving the the equations the mathematical side of things on which area spins up is it going to be the west side of the vort max or the peration here of a or what we call vorticity stretching or will will it be over the Eastern side right now it does seem very hard to say because there is a ridge of high pressure up here to the north we have lower pressure down to the South here and this is not a optimal position where you want to track something that we don't know what's going to exactly happen but right now it seems like that two areas might be able to spin off this front one hitting the Carolinas here eventually by the latter part of the weekend in early next week and maybe another area over here that might end up becoming another system again that's very far out well not very far out here but models again don't resolve things really well and so it's going to be interesting what we get out of this activity here to the north we could get one more name storm or we can get another one or two name storms all we know but the GFS right now a little aggressive the European is saying otherwise and it does appear as we go into the next oops I went ahead of myself here for Thursday morning September the 19th just a couple of days before the first day of fall astronautic we can see there is our disturbance that kind of broke off from that front here's another one that's coming off of Africa just a lot of Mischief going on out here and so the models are having a really hard time competing which one goes first this is not an ideal situation there's not much ridging to steer these systems anywhere and so for this given time frame systems do spin up here and which area almost looks like kind of a fidget spinner of different systems out here just incredible now I rarely go out very far here and the furthest I do go out is the 10day forecast on the GFS showing a couple of areas of spin that do develop but again these would be fish storms nothing impacting the United States other than again the Sunday Monday time frame where we do get that system developing out here and it bounces back on Shore that could become our next tropical depression or storm if it does um get named it would probably be Gordon or Helen one of those two depending on what goes on out here first which one gets named first will then determine if that one by the Carolina coast gets named or not okay so looking at the European model here this is a different model showing us again the same plot system as we go forward out in time the European also not very aggressive and then first five days or so at Tropical development I would not be surprised if this remains a tropical depression for the entire 5-day forecast according to our Euro model as again that tropical wave just drifts very slowly West northwestward at literally 5 to 15 miles an hour really not going to be moving much and it's going to just sit there for a while as what the Euro shows and then out to 10 days we see um this developing into a formidable tropical storm or hurricane but again there are differences amongst from the GFS model so again here's a 10day forecast and it shows that the system is here versus the European model has a system all the way up over here with another system um to its West Northwest so so again just a little bit of uncertainties to be wrinkled out on the model so now that we Favorable Period Coming took a look at our European and GFS deterministic models looking at the Atlantic Basin we want to focus more on the long term what does the hurricane season look ahead of us after Francine do we see any more tropical development out there and the answer is more most likely than not we will get more tropical development because what we're looking at here is a h molar diagram looking at our velocity potential anomaly I know a lot of people that are not advanced in meteorology like me don't understand this very much I will do my best so all this green and blue is upward Motion in the atmosphere so you can see all this upward motion that is being indicated by the GFS um operational model actually this is the control member of this forecast showing us where excuse me where all this upward MO actually is and we get all the sinking air in orange and red over basically the Pacific and then we get more sinking air of course in the short term over the Atlantic which is why models don't have much good handle on what goes on in the short term so these are time frames here so all these these look like latitude lines but these are time frame lines so we can see October 11th 6th 10th oh wait no October 10th the 6th okay they made a mistake there no wait no all right so that's October the 1st oops October it looks like a 10 October the 1 the 6th the the 11th and then the 16th all right then you go down the chart these are longitude lines all right so your longitude is 60 West over here over Africa so basically the box that we're most worried about is this area right in here all this upward motion so we get sinking motion first so again suppress convection unfavorable environment and then we get all of this upward motion eventually Beyond about the 20th or about the 23rd or the 24th of September it starts even over here early on so even the 21st all the way down we have favorable environment for development again lift in the atmosphere but again in the short term things look stable and rather dry out there a lot of dry air sinking air suppressing any conve at least through the middle of September that is through about the 17th and the 19th of September now when looking even further out into October into late October perhaps again upward motion favorable environment does continue so EPS & GEFS Ensamble Guidence here's a look at the latest European Ensemble prediction system Cyclone locations over the next 15 days and again we have to keep an eye on the gulf and in the Caribbean eventually towards the latter part of September again through this 27th of September we're looking at the potential here of maybe maybe some Central American gy Mischief going on then we also have another tropical wave the one that was coming off of Africa looks pretty intense and it might end up developing eventually we'll see there is some signals here showing maybe a tropical storm or Hurricane by the time we go into the 24th through the 27th of September now as we can see here on the GFS or gefs Ensemble forecast it's also a little aggressive just like the Euro but off of Africa not as crazy as what the Euro was showing but look it over here off the Gulf of Mexico over Florida over the Northwestern Caribbean indicating more chances here of tropical development maybe a tropical storm maybe a hurricane towards the end of the forecast period we'll see if the signal grows stronger especially on this model track right here indicating even a major hurricane that's 950 MB or lower but anyways if you found this video very helpful and detailed please consider subscribing if you haven't already hit the like button share this video with your family and friends on social media and never forget Outro/Promotion to also hit the Bell notification icon so you get all my updates on severe weather tropical weather as well as winter weather concerns across the United States I'll be back with you more on Saturday

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