This Will Fuel Strong Hurricanes In 2024

be clear there is nothing out there there's nothing imminent there is nothing threatening but the ocean is Juiced right now and if anything gets going we will have the potential to see something pretty significant in the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean we're going to talk about that in this video certified meteorologist Jonathan keg is back with you in September we have the potential to flip that switch after a very big quiet stretch in the Atlantic so we're going to take a look at that and then on the Pacific side we're going to have three systems and a couple of these going to get very close to Hawaii especially the first systems we're going to break all that down if you want to stay updated on the weather you've come to the right place if you love to have that weather conversation consider hitting that subscribe button Post in the comments where you're tuning in from all right so I want to show you the map first and then we're going to get into the actual proof about how hot and how crazy the map that we are looking at is in just one second but you see where we have the red that is where we have extreme tropical fuel now this is scientifically known as the ocean heat content so we're not only looking at the warm water but how deep that warm water goes because if a storm moves over something over that part of water it up Wells some cooler water that resides under the surface but the darker the red that is and borderline purple the deeper that warm water goes so it really isn't going to have an effect to to weaken the system much and it's going to help to feed that storm so at all costs we want to keep things out of the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico so what you see here is a bunch of yellow and a bunch of orange so again we're into that high category way above where we should be for this time of the year and then certainly the Caribbean has been extreme for most of the season so far we had Barrel go through to for a very very short time help cool things down but that was so long ago that everything has recovered now this is the eye popping stuff here I want to show you this graph here this is coming out of the University of Miami Brian MCN has make this uh made this map he's got a bunch of great stuff on his site and you see as we move forward this is going to be for the Caribbean we have record heat in the Caribbean we also have record heat content in the of Mexico you see the little box drawn there so there we stand on August 23rd so we are above last year and last year was a record the blue line is average from 2013 to 2023 so over that 10-year period we are way above that again to date we still have some room to climb too before we get to the climatological peak of that ocean heat content later in September and then early October which is why that part of the hurricane season especially in the Caribbean and Gulf continues well into October sometimes into November and if you caught our early content prior to the season we did talk about how this season will likely continue through November especially for the Caribbean so what does that mean in terms of the water temperatures well there's some crazy stuff going on off the coast of Louisiana Texas we have water temperatures hanging around 90° look at that 89 all on the coast and all through here we have sea surface temperatures this is just a surface now into the mid to Upper 80s so again at all costs we want to keep storms out of this part of the world we would love if they all did one of these and fling right out uh even east of Bermuda of course unlike Ernesto which hit the island pretty hard now I want to show you this because this has uh put it into more perspective where the anomalies are in terms of where they should be versus where they aren't you clearly see this big bubble of green and blue that's below normal water temperatures that is what is left over from that upwelling we were just talking about from Ernesto so Ernesto did its job again we don't want it to hit anything but when you do have more storms out there it does help to cool the sea surface temperatures a little bit it is one of the jobs of these tropical systems to do that to regulate the temperature so when we're not getting them obviously the water can warm up much much further so we have cooled things significantly in and around Bermuda and off the path of Ernesto remember it came just like that and uh up towards the Canadian Maritime so you see all that blue but look at the anomalies here especially along the north Gulf Coast and the West Gulf Coast they are way above where they should be by about 2° C that's about 6° F above normal so again we are way above normal we talked about early in the season again prior to the season some of the hot spots and we mentioned Texas the Texas Coastline and then this part of Florida so we already had Debbie go into uh the Panhandle Florida and of course Barrel come up right about through there and then of course the second part of the Season which we are getting ourselves into would likely be active through the Caribbean so important to note that I want to show you before we get into some of the stuff going on in the Pacific and it is kind of crazy out there um what we could be dealing with going forward I think the rest of August stays pretty quiet again we're almost to the end anyway but really for the next seven days there's not a huge signal we have a ton of dry air out there the central Atlantic cuz that's going to keep things at Bay uh what I'm showing you now is the European ensembles Remember The Ensemble data is the best thing to use when we don't have anything out there or when there's something weak like a tropical wave to kind of see a range of outcomes rather than a point forecast because as we saw with Barrel it all depends upon where that Center goes Center forms initially a lot of the models were latching that it would be a little further north than it was and that changed the complete outcome of where Barrel eventually went so here we go going forward the GFS picking up on two distinct little disturbances here this is through September second this is the European I should say and you see one cluster here all those L's represent the different members of The Ensemble and represent where each one of those members thinks the storm is going to go and how strong it could be and then there's another one here now this is again through September 2nd the interesting thing to note is the GF the European excuse me uh continues to highlight these waves coming up far north it is one that is one of the reasons why we have been relatively quiet through a lot of July and then especially August even though the Atlantic is very favorable in its upper level pattern for the most part there is some strong easterly Shear out there but for the most part uh it's been very very favorable so it's kind of defying those odds we also talked about that early in the season uh if you go back I made that Florida panther reference uh with the Boston Bruin so there's the proof there I'll link to that as well that we talked about even though if something looks like a slam dunk like it's going to happen there are still limiting factors that are unforecastable at that point and this is one of them here with these waves coming off so far north of the Cabo verie Islands there's some pretty cool water temperatures out in that direction and um and that is really helping to do that I'll I'll go back and show you the anomalies here uh off the coast of Africa where we've had these going there's been a lot of Saharan dust out that way that helps the cool to Sea surface temperatures as well so when you get these waves kind of moving in that direction it goes over the cooler air it really limits development early on it's also one of the reasons why we had Debbie uh get over here with really uh not developing much same thing with Ernesto and it and even Ernesto struggled a little bit uh because of some wind sheer and just took a while to get its act together again thankfully for Bermuda even though we did take that Direct Hit It could have gotten stronger but it never really got its its full act together so that was uh the European I want to show you the GFS and it is a bit more aggressive so there's a lot of L's on the screen so we're going to break it down here this is one camp and this goes out a little bit further so that's another reason why this is through September 6th now so beyond Labor Day weekend um we have a cluster of storms right here uh the GFS is also highlighting a homegrown storm kind of forming off that cold front that we talked about uh and moving back up if something like that does happen it would be relatively weak and it actually will help us a little bit along the Texas coast Louisiana coast where it's super super hot and super dry so we would actually welcome that I think for the most part again because it would form right off the coast and then make a quick landfall but it's these ones we have to watch so there's a decent suggestion here that we're going to have something around the northern Caribbean and Turks and koos Bahamas area as we get out to that far uh that's all the same system right here and then there's another system uh coming off uh right around the Cabo Verde Islands at that time as well that one looks like it could go north so really once we get to September in that first seven days or last day or two of August into the first week of September there's some signals for two tropical systems developing um which would get us uh we're on the E storm so FNG G uh would come up pretty quickly all right so I'm going to get you back to our other weather computer now and we're going to just kind of here we are or you are here in the hurricane season we're climbing that Peak so again defying some of the climatological odds remember 2third of all tropical development happened between August 20th which was a few days ago to a uh to October 10th so that's the most active chunk climatologically speaking of the hurricane season so again that's why the whole bust narrative out there I think we're running a little bit behind schedule from the big big forecasts that uh some had earlier in the season but still above where we should be for a normal hurricane season so important to note that as well uh so that's still a long way to go and with the with the delay in I think the flurry of activity or that switch flipping we're we're going to have the opportunity for this to go longer into the season as well so where you see that decline through November we might be able to keep that rolling unfortunately especially in the Caribbean where conditions are going to be favorable in November kind of like what we did in 22 we had the two Greek name storms Ada and Iota impact Central America not saying that that's going to be the spot that they end up impacting but I think in terms of that that we could have a couple of bigger storms still late into the season or postseason because the water is virtually untouched so we're going to move to the Pacific now there are three systems out here we have two Nam storms we have uh bigger hurricane here Category 3 storm we have another tropical system close to getting going and then we have another tropical storm uh closer to the big island of Hawaii in all likelihood this is going to stay p uh stay south of making uh landfall but tropical storm uh warnings are in effect so again you're going to have tropical storm conditions on part of the island chain of Hawaii certainly the waves are going to be crazy I'll show you that in just one second uh Hurricane Center Outlook over the next few days again our two storms that are named are out here already and and then there's that red area the high likelihood that we're going to get a third name system out of the deal over the next few days so pretty remarkable what is going on in the Pacific after a historically quiet start for them now in terms of one of the Nam storms this is the stronger one this has been a it had been a major Cur hurricane through the day now as of the 5:00 advisory uh becoming a category 2 Storm still a very strong storm and then working its way to the West you do see weakening here so the first storm and I'll show you the overall GFS model look on where these things could track but in terms of Gilma uh certainly weakening so that is good news for Hawaii and it does look like it's trying to favor the northern side of that cone so hopefully again we miss direct impacts from that uh becoming a tropical depression as well so that one likely going to undergo some rapid weakening so it's important to know that that one is likely going to go to the South and potentially bring tropical storm conditions to the islands the next one going to weaken significantly from its major hurricane status so I want to be clear about that so here we go and this is what I'm talking about so this is going to be Sunday so this is going to be late Saturday night into Sunday here of course is the Big Island here is our next uh storm and that's going to be sliding underneath uh the Big Island some very strong onshore flow on the northeastern side of all of the islands in Maui um into the island of Hawaii and into uh and then into Kawai and every island along the Hawaii W and chain uh going to get some very very strong easterly and southeasterly wind so important to note that so let me put this back in the motion I'm going to zoom things out and you clearly see this is uh the storm we were just looking at here and this is going to be the rapid weakening we were just talking about here so this is going to be Gilma again and while it does get close you'll see it's likely stays North although there's the C circulation there north of Maui right in through here but at that point it's maybe a tropical depression and and maybe a Remnant low at this point there's nothing tight there's no Clos circulation so the point I want to make with this is that if even if this does quote unquote make a direct landfall on the Northern side there's really going to be nothing left to it it appears um at least from the GFS the European shows the same kind of thing and then look at this big one this is going to be the storm that is yet to actually develop but it does make it at least once to make a very hard right turn and goes way north of the Hawaiian island so it looks like the biggest impacts are going to be over the next couple of days with this first storm that is out there so look at this look how big the waves are this is going to be as it undercuts um Hawaii here about 10 to 12 14 foot waves from the Big Island really all the islands again so big time wave action coming on both the North side of the island uh the south side of the island as well it would not be surprised if we do get some coastal flooding here with a strong uh northeasterly or strong easterly wind pushing right into the to the Hawaiian Islands uh so again just make sure you're paying attention there it's going to be pretty Breezy and certainly the waves are going to be really big as the storm here passes just to the South all righty guys if you found this content helpful please consider subscribing hit that thumbs up button and we will keep you posted not only on the storms that are in the Pacific but as uh we move forward into the Atlantic there's still some interesting things and there's some drier air that it has to overcome we hope that does not happen but it looks like this is still just something holding back thankfully again the Atlantic season um but it's only a matter of time before that lid kind of Pops off and then we start to get that flurry that has been much advertised for the last few weeks thank you guys for tuning in hope everybody has a great weekend we'll catch you next time