Yagi Typhoon Forecast - Tropical Weather Bulletin

[Music] [Music] [Music] you're watching for 13's live streaming [Music] service yagi a major typhoon threat on tonight's live tropical weather [Music] bulletin and now the latest around the wide world of Tropics tropical weather bulletin for September 3rd here is the live look around the world right now as we take a look at the 44th storm of the year so far tropical storm yagi which is moving away from the Philippines now heading into the South China Sea and a few other areas there Remnant lows including H's Remnant still active right on the International Date Line right now well it's day 95 of Atlantic Hurrican season we've marked two of these areas of Interest 30% in the Caribbean and 40% out over the Eastern Atlantic either of this these season these systems could form uh over the next few days we'll keep watching day 112 of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season and we now have no areas of Interest it feels like a long time since we last had zero on the board here not even a Remnant low or an area of interest only a just about on the other side in the Western Pacific along with tropical storm yagi and a 40% aoi that we've also given as well looks like that might become a significant system too in the Western Pacific out to sea at least to begin with and you'll see in the North Indian Ocean we've marked another 20% chance now in the Bay of Bengal for late this week into possibly the next week and there's asna on the left hand side uh it is now Remnant low looking pretty sorry for itself actually uh moving Southwest and in the southwest Indian Ocean we have no areas of Interest so no surprise really there to see that it is all quiet right now so that's our round up let's take a closer look of course at the main story then which is tropical storm yagi which looks like it will become a substantial typhoon it is it is 71 km from vgan in the Philippines 83 from La Oak City 682 from shanto China 764 from Hong Kong and 804 from maau at this time there are still signal 2 warnings in effect now pardon me because this will abruptly cut out in a moment and uh we'll throw it to uh some of our uh imagery but there is the storm moving so far towards the West Northwest so here is a view of actually the Gulf of Mexico uh we didn't have any other imagery racked up for this particular segment but let's now uh swing it over to the latest jtwc forecast cone uh for of course of course yagi uh which is forecasted according to the latest cone to get to 110 knots which is 125 mph highend Category 3 earlier model runs or or forecast from the jtwc actually had that at a category 4 and I would still maintain that that is a possibility interesting how they have that cone quite far south actually um models generally take that further north than what the jtwc is forecasting um so that's uh what we've got right now uh let me see if I can get to some of our other sources right now um well we have actually if this works I think we'll be able to cut to me and um there's Mor's screen showing the same forecast there as well my name is Nathan Foy here in the studio and I'm currently joined by our team for this tropical weather bulletin Mar's there of course we've got David in Australia and we have uh Jose as well hello to all of you evening hello good evening so uh this forecast I mean they they were saying quite a few times earlier that it sort of well jtwc toing and throwing between whether it's going to be a category three or a category 4 Peak um what do we guys think what do you guys think based on the model runs uh I think it may be the higher end of of echelon of that range I think it it most likely will become a higher end Category 3 maybe even a category 4 I think it's like 5050 if it becomes a category 4 at this point that's what I believe uh the track I'm a little more unsure of cuz a lot of models are suggesting that it will move farther north but there are a few out there that point towards the forecast of the atwc uh where it moves further south possibly towards that Peninsula just north of hinan Island um I'm not sure who to fully trust but I believe that Northern W tracks since more models are supporting that is the more trustworthy track to well I was looking at ensemble's area earlier and it had something quite similar to that yeah yeah I I I U let me look we'll take a look at models properly a little bit later of course but there's another few the European ensembles there that actually takes it further south which is curious well most of the EPS models take it further south most of them take it towards hen Island and so that's what they're looking at then um they're hedging The Bets with that and whether it might be being pushed southwards Maybe by uh high pressure over China or steering and you'll also see that other system trying to develop there on that right hand side as well yeah I see that so that's uh certainly interesting let's take a look at some uh Whistle Stop tour over the tropics right now and this is what the Atlantic is actually looking like so we've got those two areas of interest in fact they well be three or even four depending on who you ask first of all you look towards the left hand side there's that area of interest at National Hurricane Center designated uh above me that uh little little bit of a swirl going on along the coast of Texas but they've reduced that to a 0% chance so that's not forming uh definitely not now then you've got this sort of line of storms there spreading from um the Dominican Republic through sort of Puerto Ric to the southeast towards um the coast of Venezuela in the end and that is the other invest now the GFS model actually had that developing into a storm before it reached the Lesser and tiles a few days ago that hasn't happened so we're happy about that that it hasn't managed to become a storm at this point uh GFS and I think icon are still forecasting it to become a storm before it reaches yucatana as well but other models I think have shied away a little bit now moving eastwards we have a little area there I might be able to mark it I don't know if you can see that little Point I've made but this system right here I'll make a few little points there to catch your attention um moving across the Atlantic that was the system that we marked a few days ago that we scrapped in favor of the one behind it now uh looking at this we've we've still not marked it again but as as it is right now one of two models are picking up on that one actually developing again uh as it heads towards the ler and tiles um just to the North and then continuing northwestwards so that could be that's one to watch right there but it's the one behind it that were a bit more excited about you can see that system over there uh very loose at the minute to the South and Southeast in fact there maybe two systems competing there uh but I think just that little bit at the very back there uh to the southeast of Cape verd um starting to get a bit of rotation going about it and that may well become a substantial system in a few days I think the GFS last run actually had it making very close pass if not a landfall on that southwesternmost island uh of Cape verd so the Atlantic doing a little something uh but it has to be said as we enter September uh that so far it has uh not been the uh crazy season that people were expecting in terms of numbers however of course we still had uh the big Blitz of barrel um obviously that was I think enough to sa satisfy us for a whole season really um so we're going to see how September goes my take on it is I think we will see several storms in September in the Atlantic the big question is just how strong will they be at the moment it seems like these ones could end up being on the weak side although still high-end um forecast you could suggest that that Western system could still become a category 2 or even three hurricane before it reaches the Yucatan or even in the Bay of cichi afterwards let's move to the West pack and you can see the wide shot here a big uh string there of uh deep cloud cover very high Cloud tops extending from trop storm yagi which is on the left there daylight just about reaching it and uh ending another little system up there towards the aasara islands of Japan to the east of them actually way out over the open ocean um I don't know whether that's been picked up or not but there is a little circulation underneath there I'm not sure whether that will become anything but what we are looking for is uh sort of in the middle of it all probably the area towards the back um that's moving to the right I don't know if you can see the area that I'm highlighting uh but that area there at the tail end of that front looks like uh that something will form out of that over the next few days and could become once again a substantial storm um earlier runs yesterday were suggesting it would become yet another major typhoon um the last run that I saw had it being probably tropical storm and we'll show you what the the 18 Z GFS has a little bit later on of course yagi I mean uh not too much else to say about yagi right there but I can now throw us to some more views of that storm uh because that would be helpful well there's uh these views and that shows you the storm's um progress clearly moving away from the Philippines now but heavy rain will continue over there for a time and this shot as well uh showing some of the for 13 floaters there uh daylight breaking on that true color imagery on the right uh showing where the Storm Center clearly is and actually guys bubbling up once again it looks like um it is going to hit the ground running and then back on another strengthening phase oh okay that's what you meant yeah I mean it does look like that but I don't know one thing I noticed is that it's convective tops it wasn't bursting as many convective tops as it was a few hours ago oh there it is uh it's the northern side that's looking a little bit um depleted but I mean if you think it's not blowing up as much now as it did before then it must have been blowing up a lot earlier because right now there's some really Hefty Cloud Tops on that southern side one or two little spots into the minus 90s there yeah I it's just not here let me just check again uh I I I suggest I expect you maybe been talking that the well I can't even speak tonight whether there was more on Northern side earlier and maybe there's not so much now cuz that is true yeah on the Northern side and also because there yeah I I it was the northern side I was looking at I noticed the southern side has much more convective bursts and that that still has continued um till now so I I do think I was just talking about that Northern side that Northern side does seem a little bare but I I mean it probably will fill in eventually as the system gets closer to land all right I'm just actually fixing some more imagery here that we might be able to uh get running but at the moment uh I can't right now we'll be getting into some comments and questions shortly feel free to send them in it's a sort of Cooperative effort here um we do a little bit of toing and throwing uh throughout the stream um let me just try again with this imagery and we'll work with it um so here's me again with a very zoomed in view which we're going to zoom out in a minute and uh uncrop all of that and then we'll be able to actually see the storm we weren't quite as prepared as we wanted to be tonight um but nonetheless we've uh we've just about managed to appear so there's the storm once again uh a nice little view of yagi as we take some comments and questions right now so Wonderman says do we also have the GFS rainfall forecast like in the regular tropical weather bulletins yes we will be showing that later on um suggesting that there still could be quite large amounts of rain along that West very Western extreme Coastline of the Philippines um and could Ramson visent or migi be Poss ible analogs for yagi I know that someone mentioned just before might have been you as well uh that it looked like Ramson when it was emerging off Luzon um maybe I think Ramson might been doing a little bit better whether this storm could get to that Storm's kind of strength Ramson strength is pretty big question mark but um you know forecasting really rapid strength it gets difficult to um figure out you know just exactly how much strengthening what the rate of the strengthening will be and just when will it end and by that point um we may have a category four or five on our hands but we'll keep it at a borderline category 4 Peak which is the best guess forecast right now um Jennifer says that they personally think Yi is 50 to 60 miles per hour right now and why we went with 40 mph um we didn't really have anything to suggest that it was otherwise to be honest um and the the 40 m hour reading was the latest from some of Ram's tools uh I can't remember was the jtwc running at that strength as well I think they were there on that last update um so we decided not to deviate from that uh but looking at the storm of satellite imagery you may have a case you know it looks to be um developing quite nicely um I mean maybe not so much on that infrared on that Northern side but on visible it's looking quite good quite organized once again this is the forecast cone that we're looking at right now forecasting a high in Category 3 there on the jtwc it could strengthen quicker than that and be at least a high in Category 2 by the time it reaches High Nan and then eventually moving to Vietnam is that current forecast uh but certainly a significant school of thought taking it on the Northern side as a matter of fact making landfall very close to where Ramson did uh 10 years ago so we'll we'll keep looking out for that um and just exactly which way it's trending but right now it's moving Northwest so it really feels like it's going to end up going north of that forecast and Nathan The Joint I warning center syndicating lat advis that it's supposed to merge with that other area of interest I'm not seeing this area of Interest that's being talked about um that there might be a little bit of disruption there on that top left um but I I I find it difficult to establish another system and and the second point is that it's still got another 48 hours before it uh which is uh typhoon status then um another 4872 hours of uh intensification which will support uh our prision of uh calor 4 or will it be a high range C well can't rule anything out really at this time um the good news potentially is that it should weaken a bit before it actually makes landfall uh but probably not that much uh we have a a few more comments and questions there um one of our viewers in the Philippines in Abra uh nice to have you on board with us again uh rainy since last night but thankfully it's stopping at time uh in some region of the Philippines the flooding is very bad yes says do we have any microwave imagery for yagi because we were looking at that just as we were coming on the air weren't we Mari yeah so on the microwave imagery you can kind of see how the the northern side isn't showcasing as much intensity as the southern part but you can still see that some of the bands on the far northern areas are still showing some degrees of microwave imagery it's mostly the uh southern side it's mostly the southern side of course with the main the main are as the main area to watch but this is naturally there will have been some disruption there of the uh storm before it hit the uh Philippines the coast of Luzon um it was stacked up very much on the south and west side um it's sort of still that way to be honest though the less emphasis on the western side now it's more all out on the south um so it it's got It's got work to do on its northern side definitely how long do you think that'll take for it to fill in on the Northern and Eastern sides I have no idea I'm just watched you know watching again that that little hot Tower flare up there and I can't tell if that is over the center or whether the center is just perched North of it so if it was over the center it's looking pretty good um but then there's some more little towers blowing up to the westfit as well it is looking pretty disorganized um so this is expected of course um and strengthening may even be very slow for the next 12 to 24 hours it would still still have a chance even if that was the case even if we're only at 50 mil hour by the time we get to this time tomorrow um you know even if it's only 50 by then it could still ramp up to a major typhoon so it's uh going to be a big process watching to see what happens to this uh we're going to take a short break from yagi let's take a look at something else that's going on uh elsewhere in the ocean uh way out over the International Date Line oh yes it is uh it is H what's left of it oh no yeah oh no um now some rumors here and indeed jtwc designation actually of a subtropical depression I'm not so sure about that although it is looking very interesting on this satellite imagery I would say it's quite close to being classifiable as a subtropical entity uh but at the moment my answer would be no it is pretty much exactly on the international dat line probably just about um 20 or 30 miles at most uh on the Western Pacific side and it is currently shifting North or maybe North Northwest um and it's going to continue to swivel about for a little while longer yet uh so that's our cursory look at hone um Gilmer's completely gone I think it what might have been its remnants is just over there to the right um if I was placed the marker somewhere like that I think somewhere over there um but apart from that the Eastern Pacific we're not even going to have a look at the Eastern Pacific because uh there is nothing expected very quiet that's probably why ean's not here tonight and uh yeah there we go and back to a wide shot of the uh Western Pacific here actually quite remarkable the forer team flers are still showing H that Mo was just showing us there I didn't think they would be at this point but there they are uh you can find this on the for cting website for citing.com slss satellite I think um in either case you can just check it out on there uh but also our automated stream is running too so um after this stream finishes tonight you'll be redirected back over there uh it's in need of an update so I'll be going over there and updating it when we finish our stream um but if you're just joining us the main story is that yagi is uh the main storm out there right now it is still relatively weak at 40 mph pressure 997 mbars it is currently moving sort of northwesterly and is expected to become a substantial typhoon probably a major could get to category 4 status in the next couple of days or maybe a little bit longer than that by the time we get to the 96h hour point it should be making landfall in in China um I think the pretty much consensus marker is about this time on the 7th so pretty much exactly 96 hours from this point of course that's still could change as well and ensembles disagree uh that's I was just checking in with the chat there and I forgot that we're still plugged into the screen uh there's a look at the Atlantic once again whilst I go away and have another look at that chat and see what everyone else wants to talk about right now um one or two people talking about the hwrf simulated IR uh that's something that you can go and check out uh Mari uh and whilst uh we wait for that people want us to check out Cyclone asna as well there's really not much to look at guys uh but we will show you what's left of asna uh that was of course a some people might have called it quite a surprise of a store to form just off the coast of India um we don't usually get this kind of development at this time of year it can happen uh but why don't you take a look at this this is what's left of it now it is gone absolutely gone um I think we can still just about pin a center probably this here is the center of it and in fact there's a there's another little feature there off to its right that's looking quite interesting as well although we haven't seen anything on modeling but what we will be watching out for later in the week is an area over in the Eastern Bay of Bengal somewhere around here uh for a potential new Cyclone um more than one model has it but the GFS took it sort of northwesterly limping towards Bangladesh as a very weak system let's look at Mor's screen I think we're on the hwrf yes this is the hwf model I don't know if it's the IR if people are asking us to look at it I can't be good yeah it's it's not good so that's a pressure of 919 mbars and yet somehow wind of only 116 knots well if you're getting com pressure like that that's a borderline Category 5 at least um what happens next uh wait what where is it oh there it is okay I see it well it does increase slightly it actually was a little bit higher before you reach 919 mbars it was up to 123 knots uh but then it does weaken before landfall makes landfall let me just see where that is uh that's near I think that's near Shenzhen or no it's near maing actually oh maing M yeah uh so that's that landfall there in Western um wangdong Province and that will continue northwesty 949 mbar landfall there it's still quite powerful um you know that's still borderline Category 3 regardless of what that wind says there that the models often underestimate the winds when we look at pressures like that yeah and over there it doesn't show it going into the Gulf of ton and it just it just continues over China so that is you know another Outlook there that that still has it further north contrary really to the jwc's forecast of it going through Haan one thing I will say about this model though it does initialize it a little bit too strong like we're about does it oh sorry I was looking at the wrong date uh oh it does it's a good yeah it's a good initialization yeah it is a good initialization but what it what the difference is it says by like 24 hours from now it will already be a potential typhoon it will already be a potential typhoon or at least close to that status rather than 50 mph 60 miles hour some somewhere around that uh it actually does take a while to sustain that typhoon status it it takes a while it just keeps building its pressure uh but then you can see those winds really build and that pressure really begins to drop as it approaches towards the coast of China which is possible we are expecting this rapid intensification but again Mar you can't tell me that it's only just becoming a typhoon at 9 was it 950s there yeah I I I really don't think that's the case uh really I think this point you see where it says it shows a little bit of typhoon WIS that is little blip there yeah that is when it's probably going to become a typhoon at least what this model on that model it's 24 hours from now there so that's hours so that's possible right there that's rapid intensification from 35 knots to 65 knots in 24 hours it's pretty good naan you Reon that's firming because s said weon intensification who said The Joint tare warning center yeah uh well no no doubt no doubt it would have to do rapid intensification for a fair period to match this forecast um and we've been seeing it on pretty much every model I don't think we've seen any model that disagrees with this at least intensity wise right disagrees with the rapid intensification yeah let me let me just make sure now have another comment whilst we wait from Reiko who says thoughts on the signal in the Deep Western Pacific main development region uh Ensemble show another strong system Brewing I have seen that and it would not Shock me at all we'll take a look at it properly in a few minutes could yagi get to super typhoon when it gets to China I think it could do on the way or whether it will still be when it gets there that would be quite a surprise but of course we have seen it before that's why everyone's talking about Ramson because that did it there's the Euro jtwc clearly following that model very closely because it's pretty much what they forecasted the same there although it is a little bit cut off on our screen Mari uh but you can see yep so gone pretty much westwards all the way there through hyan and into the G of tonin and then on towards the coast of Vietnam oh and interesting all away yeah and interestingly it does show it R strengthening in the Gulf of tonen as it makes landfall in Vietnam which is a possibility if it does emerge over that what did you say quite common storms can strengthen over there yeah uh it makes landfall probably that's a category two I would I would believe uh and makes landfall there moving in land but that is the southern scenario that is if it if it makes more Southern this is it doesn't show as much rapid intensification as the other models but that might be the more likely scenario but that's because it's the CWF model yeah yeah so I'm not I'm not saying who don't know they always low ball it on on on this run yeah uh there's one again the chat and there's the more viewpoints of the live uh view of the storm uh still trying to get itself sorted out but maybe it's improving as we keep watching this imagery I reckon it is just reload that might be some new frames here as well um let's go for some more questions though uh when will there be one of the five Recon missions that were planned in the Western Pacific this year when will they take place and could you argue be one of them you're asking the wrong person I'm afraid I have no idea I'm not sure anyone else in the team knows either um but that's I mean even I mean I've only even heard that info as well I've not actually seen it with my own eyes so um I'm definitely not the person to ask about that could yagi affect Hong Kong with Typhoon or gale force wins if I recall Hong Kong is currently at about a 20 to 25% chance of storm force winds and hurricane Aly Bron says how much rainfall with that system well it's quite a bit still possible on the Philippines Coast still just for a little while longer uh maybe storm totals of probably 10 in plus 250 mm and we could be looking at those amounts again for China later on uh we're going to take a look at the GFS Roundup short what the model is uh showing us this time um and I'll be getting that ready in just a couple of seconds um in the meantime was there anything else our team wanted to add about yagi or any of the other storms at present well there aren't really any other storms but any other systems well the latest frames I do see that the clouds continue to expand the high Cloud Tops on the system continue to expand I wonder if they will expand towards that Northern side and possibly get rid of the gap between the storms Western and Eastern side I I just wonder if that that's what's going to happen and it is a significant Channel there at the moment Nathan JMA what intensity or wind strength do they uh rank a super typhoon uh I'm trying to remember if they even use that designation CU it it super typhoon is only really coined by the jtwc however whilst we are here let's show you the latest uh cone from the Japan meteorological agency there it is right now they're depicting the storm appr pressure 996 wind speed about maybe 45 milph um and their forecast takes it quite strong typhoon by the time we get to um what's that near nearly two days from now and then they really deep and it's a very strong 945 mbars U by the time it reaches High Nan uh quite far south on their forecast as well only marginally further north than the jtwc um and that's at least a category three there at that landfall in hyan and probably about the same for its peak intensity there on the JMA David appreciate you showing the co the JMA uh can you just go back uh to when they uh blasted us super typhoon sorry when uh JMA ranks it upgrades to super typhoon status I don't know if they do that they they have their own different mechanisms they've got strong tyu and then they've got violent which is the very strong ones um I'm not as o with their designations um but I'm pretty sure it's a jtwc thing that yes because I've already seen the discrepancy on that kinde with v the JMA I have super typhoon just uh on the border of the yellow circle uh I've got it there but I think it'll probably be around 92 hours because they don't rank it upgrade to Typhoon status so uh what F say uh local time or it could be Wednesday evening uh local time but maybe I'll be I'll be going with the jtwc yes and that rapid intensification all right let's take a look at the GFS models then uh and see what we've got in store let's start of course in the Atlantic because we always do um taking a look at the next 16 days here so first of all uh we've got of course this area of interest in the Caribbean not much to it right now let's see what happens so it's continuing westwards passing by Jamaica getting a little bit of traction uh then not again you see our other system behind it that's the middle one that we haven't yet designated but that is another one that could develop and now we're on the seventh by this point this is the 7th of September now into the here's the eighth and there it is developing into a substantial storm and into a hurricane there landfall in Biz um afternoon evening of the night uh nope other way morning of the 9th and then continuing westwards Overland out it comes actually stays weak and close to the coast on this particular run so that's actually a downtrend from the previous GFS forecast which actually had this as probably a borderline well a stronger category one at any rate uh than this and even stronger in the Gulf if I recall let's just have another look at that second system there it is and then turning sort of nor well trying to form again there and you can see it influence uh passing by is a ghost of a storm basically um in another season I don't know what it is about this year so far but in another season this might have been a major hurricane there it is shooting up to North Carolina um not much left of it still by that point and then something else happens down to the bottom there which we'll touch on in a minute but near Cape verd let's look for that next system there it is tries to form does form eventually very tight system uh near the cape Vera Islands this is the 7th of September into the eth there and now into the ninth starting to move away there um doesn't last very long actually a brief storm but potentially a scare uh for Cape FD what happens after that nothing in the rest of the Atlantic but you may have seen it before so we have that first storm moving in and then some energy looks like it actually comes from the East pack uh through the Gulf of tianti pek and into the Bay of kichi and you can see actually try this is long range so let's not get too hasty about this this is the 1 that's a full 10 days out so this is the silly range and you can see a storm moving through Florida and then this storm really getting itself going two peaks there strong hurricane doesn't know where it wants to go and eventually it does finally take aim towards possibly Houston or late Charles somewhere around there once again that is is very very very long range all right Eastern Pacific this should be simple right let's see are we right uh oh there is a little system towards the end there that does try to develop in tandem with that Gulf of Mexico storm again silly range very far out day 10 to 16 uh and it's still only quite a weak system so the Eastern Pacific back to its earlier season state of being quite a dead Basin there's H uh what left of H and you can see it doesn't do much else and then it's completely gone within a few days there West Pacific so first of all obviously the big one yagi obviously our attention on that right now so the GFS this latest run there it is Powerhouse look how large that is as well and it's Peak intensity there just about category 4 130 mph and that's on the GFS it will likely be stronger than that if that is a correct forecast now finally making landfall again very close to the areas we were talking about earlier near maing um in Western uh Guang dong uh so that could be another powerful landfall there at least Category 2 maybe Category 3 but also a further north landfall um rather than the European suggestion that it will actually go through uh hyan even and possibly even make landfall in Vietnam south of Hanoi and H pong so uh but either way both of them pretty much going for a strong system now what happens to the east another system trying to form there it is that's the 40% that we gave and it another system trying to form around it wraps around becomes one system and it blows itself out there's nothing left of it by the time it goes well miy Islands just a little bit and then tries to go towards China not much left of it there then there's another little system trying to develop in the uh South China Sea and then on to the right look at this a big typhoon this is into the long range now and even further than that and very end of the run here look at that two major typhoons active here South China SE on hyan and approaching Taiwan this is very long range I wouldn't put much faith into that and then another massive storm behind it as well look how big that is that is absolutely huge um heading northwestwards and eventually towards Japan as well but that is very far out that right there though that is probably a category 5 um but it is once again a long way out North Indian Ocean could we see that development there it is is that's what I've been talking about this 20% now that's possibly a tropical storm and then it loses its strength very quickly and then it just sort of Bowes on over to the ganes River delta and moves Inland for the rest of the time period in the Indian Ocean nothing southwest Indian Ocean for what it's worth uh nothing much there a little low pressure towards the end I think there is actually something in the South Pacific on the GFS tonight um yes there is a little something right there look at that that is a brief tropical storm on the 8th of September um to quite far away from anywhere uh well towards the southeast of uh American Samoa and that other Island over there which I forget it's well east of Tonga but there is a storm and it's not just the GFS I think the icon it I think it was the icon or no it was the CMC actually has that scenario as well but both of those models can be pretty crazy at times let's just have a look at the South Atlantic uh nothing I'm pleased to report and sometimes in September especially medicane season could we see a European Mediterranean system uh GFS at the moment says no so there we go that's the models let's take a look at the rainfall expectations uh we'll show you the 7 Day rainfall totals of all of these areas now and it's just loading in still loading in we're just on day three at the minute so you can see the Atlantic lighting up slowly as we get to day five day six and you can see if that storm forms in the Western Caribbean really blowing up large amounts of rainfall for parts of Honduras and Biz 18 in 12 in 300 to 500 mm in those zones if that storm does form moving over to the West Pacific another massive Trail there over the central part there that's from that other system that're forming later on but then we've got this enormous plume of course from yagi look at this so Western most extremities of the Philippines still could get a lot of rain look at that 32 in for a small part of the coast uh vgan City pretty much that is 32 in for you here uh that's from now onwards so that could be a massive amount if that actually verifies that is 800 mm uh some of the mountains of the Philippines as well 400 mm M there 16 in and then moving on towards China Hong Kong could get some significant amount somewhere in the territory 9 in there in the Eastern side 11 in further west along the coast of China looks like those are the maximums there lead super Peninsula also getting up towards 11 in as well nearly 300 mm and then Inland way over near the Vietnamese border 133 or 14 in possible there as well 350 mm so pretty ve very high amounts of rain there for those areas and obviously even higher for the main swaye of the storm as it really strengthens um and reaches its peak intensity before it arrives over there in China wow so very busy in terms of rainfall and the Tropics as a whole this is what we ordered this is September usually the busiest month of the Season team what did you think of that model display then no it's South Pacific it's the South Pacific yes uh what was the uh model uh how far out was that uh it's actually not that far out it was on the eth I think so it's in the uh moderate range even borderline short range actually even even on the ecmwf it actually shows a little something I mean it looks more disorganized it looks disorganized so I don't think it turns into an actual system there it is it's trying yeah it does become a small low pressure system it's heading east instead of South uh towards towards around towards the southeast Pacific everybody seen this system form in that area is there any history so that that that's actually new way is where that was forming I thought it might have been um so uh well yeah we we do sometimes have storms there uh this time of year I am not sure um sometimes we do have September storms but very rare October is usually when you might well we had a out of season tropical Cyclone now what was it October uh what was it 20 oh I can't remember but once the South Pacific once the South Pacific had a cat 3 in October so it can happen uh I was just looking at the GFS model Mo M any chance you can bring that up the GFS model well we've just done 20 minutes on that David for what for what Basin again Pacific okay yeah we can have another look at that Viewpoint okay so if you look at that you can see a front develops and there def a tropical storm it does become a brief tropical storm there is a few Islands there off the coast of Fiji I believe those belong to Tonga uh and there's new way uh this system doesn't really know doesn't is very indecisive on where it wants to go uh it eventually moves West and it misses the island of new way and it thegrates before it reaches Tonga so it is a very brief system but it does become a brief tropical storm and that isn't that far out so there is some model consistency but the thing is it it it's just such a weak system that we it could I mean it's possible that it's possible that it just won't form because it's just so weak and it like the one discrepancy in the model will just cause all the model support to crash oh yeah well as it is though we might have to Market in our next bullet um I mean maybe maybe there we go what service SES oh that's a good question actually looked at ssts today let me look and uh we're going to hug your screen here so we can have a look at it evening Child Care near me um no uh you can see that was the nesto effect there in the Atlantic big gap opened up and sealed itself up again um but look down to the South Pacific oh nice getting a zoom in there uh they're just coming to temperature now about 25 26° there is a small little push of 26° near new way so if it just manages to head a little then it might be able to become a trop but of course some trop system in temperatures under 26° so we really have to see I'm noticing what's the yellow represent oh the Euro let me get that no the yellow the yellow Yow pretty sure 26° ISO begins just looking at the Northwest uh area of Australia Dar and also the golf of carpet terious yeah the the temperatures are building up uh but as we enter as we approach the Australian cycl season yes not that long to go yeah fascinating so yes we're pretty much going to conclude now uh so the top story tonight is that uh tropical storm yagi is uh back over the other side of the Philippines and is now moving back over the South China Sea already looks like it's starting to strengthen any final thoughts from our team on yagi I have no doubt that it will undergo we an intensification and uh it could uh uh be uh classes of typhoon W say night local time yeah some of these models are to be believed it's going to be Wednesday morning it really 24 hours now yep it really depends how when it can get its app together and start strengthening all right well there we have it uh we're going to conclude now I'd like to thank my team for joining us and now we're going to go to the on this day section and the usual Spiel I do at the end of tropical weather bullet bus a little bit later on of course after this stream finishes you'll be redirected to our automated stream and you can join the chat on our Discord server as well discord.gg force3 so thanks to the team there it was nice having you on board once again but let's take a look at what happened on this day it was 2 years ago in 2022 well we had a hinor was the main system there it had weakened actually previously of course a very powerful super typhoon down to Category 2 at this point but it would strengthen again as it headed back further north into the East China Sea Danielle was a category one hurricane early tropical storm near the Lesser and Tilles and Havier off the coast of Mexico in the Eastern Pacific excellent and of course we tracks those storms as well well back to today then the next name in the Atlantic of course is still Fran Seine we're waiting we're waiting Eastern Pacific next up is Ilana in the Central Pacific now it is Iona don't we feel free and liberated that we don't have to say hone anymore in the Western Pacific it's leapy and in the North Indian Ocean now the next name is Danna or Dana I'm still not sure which one I prefer yet d a na and in the southern hemisphere things might be starting up soon the Australian region the next name is Robin the southwest Indian Ocean starts with Ana and in the South Pacific the next name is pitter we'll be back again with more from the tropics tomorrow night become an Ultimate Fan today [Music]