Yagi making a run for Category 5 Typhoon status

[Music] [Music] [Music] you're watching Force 13's live streaming [Music] service typhoon yagi nearing Category 5 status in the South China Sea on tonight's tropical weather bulletin and now the latest around the wide world of [Music] Tropics live tropical weather bulletin for September 5th typhoon yagi getting much stronger and is not too far away from category 5 status currently a powerful category 4 venturing across the South China Sea towards the coast of hyan and Southern China uh Troy depression 13w also to the southeast of Japan and the remnants of hone still AC day 97 in the Atlantic and we have now marked five areas of Interest a 40% chance in the Eastern Atlantic there but the other ones down in the lower region have uh dropped down quite a bit but 2 20% chances further north now the sub in the subtropical zones one of them from the National Hurricane Center another we've marked two day 114 in the Eastern Pacific we've also marked a 20% chance there off the coast of Mexico moving up towards the Northwest next week and still a 20% chance in the Central Pacific for a potential next system uh it looks like it won't form typhoon yagi of course a very powerful storm we'll cover that in detail 50% chance area of interest to the east of the Philippines and a 60% through the uh micronesian Islands likely to become a significant typhoon next week near the Marianas and a 30% chance still active an area of interest in the northern part of the Bay of Bengal a new system that could end up developing in it's going to be another messy one very broad uh we'll be watching that one for the next 2 or 3 days at least southwest Indian Ocean is looking mighty quiet not too much to look at here we thought we'd show you anyway uh there is Rumblings that there may be a low pressure system down there in the next week but it shouldn't become a tropical Cyclone or even anywhere close typhoon yagi is an extremely powerful category 4 our latest estimate gave it 145 mph and a pressure of 935 mibar strong wind signal number three in effect for Hong Kong and maau I believe they're uping it later on to Signal 8 401 km from Hong Kong 415 from Shan we China 422 from maau 512 from hyan Island and 624 from Zan xang this is a very powerful storm is continuing to move Westerly at the moment if not possibly even west southwest right now at about 6 mph and sorry about the black screen just for a minute there I forgot to load up something else but there it is uh a recent view of the storm's progress uh showing a very powerful looking uh storm the ey temperature has been gradually increasing and those latest frames certainly show it getting much more well-rounded as well uh so it is making a run for category 5 status we are forecasting the storm to reach Category 5 5 later on maybe tonight or early tomorrow uh but right now it is looking extremely good on that satellite imagery well we had a Whistle Stop tour of the tropics there there's so much to track right now we actually have no less than 13 areas of interest to be looking at uh live right now well if you count hone although that's not really much to talk about of course A lot of these systems aren't actually present yet they're future systems that are likely to develop in the next seven days but here's the main story in front of us right now first light over typhoon yagi my name is Nathan Foy here in the studio and I'm joined on our live tropical weather bulletin tonight by JJ and Zeta hello welcome to both of you hello hi um your thoughts on this very powerful storm as we look at it we're not terribly surprised that this has happened but um pretty impressive to see it nonetheless it is pretty impressive to see like um I did mention earlier that there's like a very typhoon look to um yagi like it's very stereotypical of like your average typhoon I guess but it does look very good but I am very concerned for those who may be affected by it and they should take precautions as soon as possible and still again you can look at the move movement there and there is a Southward element to it right now not moving very quickly either only at about uh maybe six miles per hour at a push uh so it is slow movement um and getting very strong JJ you there right now yep I'm here welcome aboard your thoughts on the main feature this big typhoon right now just kind of admiring it right now very Quest the storm knocking on the door to Super tyon stus try to make a one for CAT 5 and we'll have to wait and see what yagi does of course a fair amount of uh estimates already putting it into the super typhoon uh threshold latest ADT suggesting that it is around 155 milph right now um the reason why we've pegged it back a little bit is just because of uh lag we don't look at the Raw numbers we average out what we've seen over the last 3 hours so what what it looked like 3 hours ago is effectively holding it back as to what it looks like now but what that does mean is that it is pretty much assured because its appearance is still uh improving it is assured that this storm is going to be revised upwards on our numbers um over the next few hours um even probably after we go off the air tonight uh we will probably probably declare it a super typhoon it looks that way um unless we see some substantial um decomposition on the Storm whilst we're alive whilst that's not happening what is happening is that the uh Cloud top burst aren't quite as high as they were earlier um I'm wondering if I can take a look at a different shot uh let's try and get this um not uh very demonstrable on that imagery either but let's look at this one this is going to be more like it um look at that imagery and you will see that there is there are less yellows wrapping around that doesn't mean that the storm's weakening per se uh because the ey is looking pretty much better there as well so I'd say it's maintaining at least um and that right there tells me you know looks like a solid 50 mph appearance right there the eyes continue to get better as well maybe even higher so uh This Storm certainly extremely powerful um just interested to see what will happen to those to that eastern part of the storm in the next couple of hours it looks like it might be uh getting hit maybe a little bit of wind shear there on that North and Northeastern side but we'll have to wait and see whether that has an impact on the Storm but but uh we are expecting the storm to Peak um still ahead of us let's look at that latest jtwc cone now their last update which was uh quite a few hours ago now they gave it 140 M hour back then and they were forecasting 150 mph Peak they actually have the peak intensity there um tomorrow um they're calling for that Peak intensity about 24 hours from now maybe slightly less so given that the storm may have that amount of time left still ahead of it uh that is quite concerning surely that uh it could definitely make a run at Category 5 and maybe more as a matter of fact we are forecasting a 165 mph Peak at this time well let's uh throw it to some more imagery here there you can see another Viewpoint and again just how that eye has improved in those last few frames you can really see it there absolutely uh but as a result the cloud tops sort of uh equalizing that a bit or offsetting it by uh becoming somewhat less um protruded let's get some comments and questions and you can send them in while still on the air during this hour on our tropical weather bulletin uh after we're finished uh we'll will redirect you back to the automated stream which we're also running uh 24/7 during this storm I do have to point out that um it it's uh I'm currently working on the updates on that automated stream right now but I am not here in a few days in about uh well Sunday I won't be here so we'll be able to see the rest of this storm on the automated stream but it will actually be closing down uh for a couple of weeks in the middle of September so that could be a uh problem uh but we'll see what happens um yes says there's been some decent midlevel Shear to the north well looks like that's what we're seeing right there and Logan says it looks like it's trying to form a pinhole eye well it's not it's not trying to form a pinhole eye it's got quite a wide eye not massive uh but it's it's I eye size right now diameter probably about 35 km um and quite a few other comments are coming in there as well Arya says is it possible to add midlevel humidity floaters in the forer team website it probably is I'll have to ask our uh website mechanic Jason uh to see if uh we can swing that uh but for the time being we'll have to uh take a look at what we've got um but certainly a lot of estimates all over the place really um and a lot of people suggesting that it may be a category 5 well uh I don't think it's there yet um it's got a little still a little bit further to go uh but it is certainly feasible that it could get to that strength uh by well it you know it's close it could be a matter of hours M um Zeta JJ anything else you'd like to mention regarding yagi and maybe its forecast uh I definitely think that a category 5 Peak is absolutely feasible like there's not really much in the way of the storm right now except for that little bit of windsh on the North side and rainfall expectations are going to be very huge as well quite a broad stroke that the storm will be pushing in uh to Western Guangdong Province and further west eventually towards Vietnam as well some large areas getting high amounts of rainfall Let's zoom out now and take a look at the uh next phase out on this zo level and you can see uh what's happening still further to the east now the storm is still producing very high amounts of rainfall along the western fringes of the Philippines and the forecast is that they could still in some areas receive an additional uh 10 in of rainfall for parts of that western coast of the Philippines so um that storm is even though it's long gone uh still really affecting uh that region too look to the right of it now and you'll see another big flurry of convection there this time on the Eastern side of the Philippines that is the 50% chance that we've given for that potential next system still quite a lot of uncertainty about what happens here because you've got this trail of moisture the top end of it there is now uh marked up by that tropical depression 13w which was designated I think last night um it was during our stream last night I think 13 W and it's still moving on sort of northwesty at the moment a tiny system really in comparison when you look at that wide shot um slowly heading towards Japan but it will move again North and then Northeast it's going to curve away and it shouldn't get any stronger so a TD and then you look towards the um middle of the picture there there's another little bit of cloud in the middle of all this and some indications for models that that too uh could become a spin up tropical Cyclone uh so we could about that system uhhuh about that system I did look on 18z GFS and I do believe that area were just talking about it is an area that becomes something pretty substantial in the 18z GFS and it takes a and then it goes on to take a pretty similar track to yagi except it goes between the Philippines and Taiwan hold on what no I think you're talking about that later system aren't you uh maybe are you talking about the system that forms near Micronesia and moves no because it do anymore does it that hold on I can't remember anymore we'll look at the G in a bit it is yeah okay it it is one near Micronesia I believe so look down here you've got something else forms it massive area of cloud in the intertropical Convergence Zone there and thunderstorms blowing up all across the eastern part of Micronesia towards the Marshal Islands something is going to form out of that and already you can see it's choked full of energy and eventually we are probably going to be see another substantial typhoon form out of this we're already giving it a 60% chance and it's not even going to form for the next four or five days so it's a pretty impressive system here and that could become another very powerful typhoon next week but we'll have to wait and see obviously the main feature there of course is typhoon yagi which we'll be coming back to time and again but whilst we're here let's have a quick look at the rest of the tropics here's the satellite view of the Atlantic and uh well there's not much going on here right now there's a lot of areas that are trying to do things uh but it really is just a misfiring Basin right now um the Atlantic very much struggling the other system that we've been watching it it we we went from it being a tropical storm moving into the Caribbean becoming a hurricane to becoming a hurricane and slamming into the Yucatan to a tropical storm into the Yucatan becoming a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico and today um most of the models have given up so it is almost completely gone um and that is peak season in the Atlantic right now you know very poor um the best we can really see in the next few days is one or two weak tropical storms and as we said uh possibly in the subtropics look at that little circulation there right now in the western Atlantic there uh west of Bermuda I think can't see Bermuda the northwest of Bermuda that area of Interest that's been marked by a National Hurricane cent of 20% and later on there'll be another system drifting down from the higher latitudes something to do with this front probably in a few days and then drifting southwards into the well there's nothing here you know just open ocean uh but could be another brief tropical Cyclone so five areas of interest in the Atlantic but four out of the five are low chance and you've got the one moderate which is that little swirl that's going on in the central Atlantic right now we're also joined by Ethan who had the news last night about 13w if I recall um what's your take on the tropics tonight and I assume you'll mainly want to talk about yagi of course it is the by far the strongest storm globally right now oh yeah the second strongest is 13w which is confirmed to be a tropical storm by ASAT by the way just want to point that out and yagi is quite close to Category 5 status right now I'd probably give it winds probably 155 milph right now the eye temperature is in the positives it's not terribly far into the positives it's got an eye temperature right now of per radar uh per estimates around 6 degrees Celsius so it is positive and there are some estimates I just said Nathan a few minutes ago hovering around Category 5 status now whether or not yagi ABS absolutely attains that St is still not entirely certain uh given that there are some inhibiting factors the main one it appears to be is just saying that Ethan I'm sure you said earlier I'm sure you said earlier today that it's definitely going to be a category 5 well I did I did I did say that earlier today and it does appear that the intensification rate has at least slowed a little bit and believe it or not I do I just want to just double check my facts before I say this let me just pull up the most recent microwave pass as I say that the eye temperature now up to 8 degrees C as I say that uh let's have a look at the latest microwave pass um try get mic pass at 2230 is the all screen um there is some slight indication of a outer eyewall developing which would lead to a i replacement cycle and would ultimately weaken the storm there is said microwave pass that was about uh just doing math here just about two hours ago I believe yeah 2 hours ago okay of course the core is the core is still pretty strong and the core and the the ey has gotten a lot more circular since then since its past so there are going to be some limiting factors and you know the storm has time on its hands and can absolutely rest strengthen AB after its ey poison cycle if it has has the time to do so I'm not convinced that's an outer eyew wall it's it's not one fully but it is the sign of one starting to form you can see there in particular on the Southern and Eastern sides of the storm it's hard to tell uh certainly a um uh God I can't even remember what phrase I was going to use but the cloud top are simmering down a little bit here southide there's a bit of a gap right now that's usual um these kind of these kind of storms whenever they tend to clear out their eye and warm their eye um it's almost always like like something else has to go for the eye to clear and 95% of the time the cloud tops will decrease as the eye warms that that that is simply how most storms are which generally even though that the cloud tops are decre the temperature is warming that is generally a sign that the storm is still intensifying well yes but there's a bit of a weakness on that South side at the moment so it'll be interesting to see if it holds probably will um and also being hit by a bit of Shear on that North Side that's becoming more apparent but not affecting the core at this time so um it could be one of those sheared Category 5 storms Believe it or or not we there are some they do exist um there is there there mods do suggest that around this time there is going to be some slight Shear problems so that's probably what the storm is dealing with but as we go into the 12z time frame Shear actually drops down again according to the models so so um so this is going to have lower Shear give it time and it'll have a lower shear if it hasn't going into an I was cycle well that's that's the big kicker isn't it if yeah um I don't know if that even is a best case scenario but to have a weaker storm uh that would an i replacement cycle in about 12 hours would hit the spot because uh it's still got a lot of time 24 hours at least uh to further strengthen well let's start out by saying that a iall prison cycle would would most likely bring tropical storm force winds or at least stronger wins to Hong Kong I think Hong Kong will get storm Force wins won't last I do that long they won't be very powerful probably only in the 40s um but I think they will get it and sort of infer there by that forecast cone too showing those wind r i I do think that they will too but if the storm under go Nal poison cycle that would make the windfields substantially larger mhm absolutely um all right let's see uh what we've got here um some people agreeing with you there that it's a second eye wall I really not sure looking at that imagery I think it's too early to tell um is it the strengthening outflow indicated by a better eye is that didn't make very much sense uh strengthening outflow indicated by a better eye blowing away High Cloud tops I'm I'm not quite sure what the uh question was there um whether it's a sign of strengthening maybe I don't know um and what is the absolute maximum Peak well yesterday we actually said that the uh Max Peak would be near Category 5 strength uh that increased today um and I would uh let me just double check here um I would infer that the potential maximum now would probably be give a 10% error mark margin a drop of about trying to figure this out on the Fly here uh about 18 milars uh a further strengthening is what I would expect a reasonable maximum Peak so from our estimate 935 there that would bring it down to 9917 uh of course if the pressure is already lower then uh maybe and you sort this at this kind of intensity you would sort of pretty much say it's 1 mph per milar uh so that would take it to 160 165 mph maybe more uh given how the storm may already be stronger than that 145 indicated earlier so uh maybe 175 cat gaming uh thanks very much for your support apparently a category 3 member now as well so great to have you with us for the ride and we hope you enjoy our coverage um Recon hurricane tracker says what happen do we use for GFS runs that we use in the bulletins um we use a lot of wsv3 on that what was the most powerful typhoon that hit Hanoi and will this storm be the most intense that will hit the region well there is going to be substantial weakening by the time it gets to Vietnam I am pretty sure it will not be the strongest storm to ever hit Hanoi and I will double check um The Archives now there may there may have been a older storm that managed to be stronger but I'm just going to look at modern records well let me just start out by saying that this is not going to be the strongest storm to strike this area mhm okay the strongest I'm sorry we all we all know what the strongest storm is is right this area which it's name just no the coastline of China that just sticks out the name's just alluded me you're talking about Ramson yes Ramson that was the name I think about yeah that's for that area but they were asking about Hanoi in Vietnam uh the strongest stor that yeah um in modern records the strongest storms that came close none of them really went through Hanoi but they were Frankie which no one's ever heard of a category 2 in 1996 and stin back in 2012 which you may have heard of and we tracked that one that was our first year of proper tracking um so those are some of the strongest ones and a little bit further north you had crovan in 2003 which was a category 2 into Vietnam as well you know what though um that part of the coastline I don't think they've ever had a major just double check that fact yeah they have never anywhere that's sort of sheltered by Haan they've never had a category 3 landfall along that part of Vietnam uh then again I wonder how strong the high pong typhoon would have been he h i just I'm I'm working on a um on a forecast cone now for the storm and the storm is actually tracked well Southwest or the South Southwest of the jwc's 18z position and it is still moving with a southerly element right now it's pretty pretty much west southwest movement about 6 milph maybe five yes I am working on a uh forecast cone for the storm so we'll have to see what uh what I come up with now uh what will that actually mean more of a southwestlynnwood potentially but this um but the Zer Z position is pretty much near the 18 Z1 and the dtwc was threatening it to be significantly more towards the Northwest this is this easily means that that the the landfall time has been delayed a little bit well exactly that's what I was going to talk about um gives the storm more time to slip up but it also possibly gives the storm more time to strengthen thing is when it if it has an eyewall replacement cycle uh it will struggle a lot more to strengthen it's got a much bigger core to manage by that point and Ethan given even though ssts are high Oceanic heat content isn't exceptional uh and so you know we may be um an IA replacement cycle now or soon um would definitely extinguish your chances of getting to Category 5 status it would it would but it would I even if there is an iral poison cycle I would not distinguish the chance of a super typhoon landfall really mhm I still think that uh if if the storm plays its cards correctly and does a very quick out po cycle that the storm could be rest strengthening as it goes into land here well that is one thing if it is a super quick uh ewrc um those have happened before yeah um more more likely in the the smaller core storms of course um and the I diameter currently about 35 km Ethan what do you make of that kind of size it's about average i''s say about average nothing really much to say about that and uh how big is the typhoon now compared to yesterday's live tropical weather bulletin it is probably bigger I think I recall last time actually the central core diameter is still the same about 275 km um the storm's full influence north to south is again actually quite similar about 1,400 km uh so the storm certainly looks more impressive but it hasn't actually gained size really since yesterday at least looking at the cloud pattern now maybe the winds might have told a different story on that I wasn't keeping track yesterday uh I reckon they may have grown a little bit uh let's see if we can get some uh more comments here um I saw people on the automated tracker talking about 185 miles hour what is the chance of that very very low yeah I'd like to say it's pretty much zero uh you know I don't know this is the South China Sea you can get category fives but even that is extremely rare actually in this part of the West Pack yeah absolute worst case scenario I'd say would probably be like 175 maybe mhm which is still very unlikely I I would say that breaking news J has called us Category 5 really yep they've gone with a pressure of 9915 millibars wow that is very Max maximum sustained winds 120 miles per hour course that's 10 minute sustained winds gusts up to 175 miles per hour 20 so this is now a caly five not by the J not by the jtwc but this is by the JMA the official rsmc of the Basin and they don't call Super typhoons either they're are violent on their intensity scale which is this already was Prior so oh it was yeah okay they also forecast additional strengthening up 2 125 mph by the way 10 minutes again yeah they're forecasting 9005 mbars there uh let's just show you this uh this is their latest update so they're running with uh 105 not 10 minute right yes which normally that normally correlates to wins of and 60 MPH when minut WIS that sound sounds like some wacky conversion that should be more like 140 it's always been that way if you look back at a lot of um at a lot of uh category fives that the jtwc has given at um yeah I know I know that and I've seen that quite a lot I'm just just curious why those numbers just seem really low um in any case uh interesting that they still forecast further strengthening at what point it starts weakening I'm not sure but by the time it gets into the Gul of tonin it's there 965 and then of course it's dead in land very quickly uh it's amazing to think Ethan that um a storm like this is actually going to be uh completely disappeared in four days land will do crazy things yeah some places land uh you know the storms persist over land for quite a while you know look at the US look at India uh when storms move in land they they are traceable for a good while very hilly areas though that the the storm is moving into when it continues further west over Indochina so uh that will put certainly put a short shrift of that so in the meantime uh this is a fascinating stuff very powerful typhoon I certainly don't think it's Category 5 proportions uh but it is getting closer and I reckon well we're still forecasting it pretty sure it's going to happen um it won't take too much more of a push let's check some more imagery right now let's see if we can get some new frames from Ram if we can and trying to get there this is what I loaded up before let's just get an update on this and see what the newest frames look like again you'll note that that movement is west or maybe just a tad South and you can see the convection uh started to WAN a little bit as the eye really started to appear and pop out a lot more I imagine that eye temperature is still increasing looks like it it's getting rounder as well and just watch another time here as you just watch the Northeast side starts to get hit by that Shear a little bit and that Eastern side convection you see I think that is what's uh holding it back still at the moment uh either way it is probably a super typhoon and when we're talking about impact potential pretty Elementary stuff here these differences um and it's certainly going to pack a huge punch with extremely dangerous winds if it's still at that strength when it gets there which I'm pretty sure it will be of a pretty formidable strength and on top of that a large rain profile as well widespread areas could get up and above 10 in 500 mm of we'll take a look at that properly in the models in a second um before we go and do that uh anything you guys want to bring up thoughts Uh current uh on this storm or any others around the world um you go first Ethan I guess um about the East pack oh yes um earlier Mo runs both the 12z Euro and the 12z GFS had a significant hurricane near the Baja California Peninsula yeah late next week so if you are in those regions just a uh maybe an early warning on that I also noticed that um one of the um areas of interest that um Nathan has marked earlier does form on the 18z GFS and becomes a pretty substantial hurricane maybe 9 54 milars what yeah it curves um which one it curves it curves north of the um lesser tailes and takes a pretty similar track to Jose of 2017 I'd say that in the Atlantic let me guess I think I'm starting to see it now I'm just loading in the model that that is not I forgot to mention the Atlantic oh my gosh that is not A system that we've currently marked it will be one that next week no it's it's not one that we've marked so far so I wouldn't take it seriously we will show I thought it was that I thought it was that 10% area behind the medium CH that 10% is currently active GFS actually develops that one too uh I will be showing it very shortly just waiting for the models to the model to finish loading in um and after we do that we can take a look at some of the other models as well uh we're not really favoritist towards the GFS it's just because wsv3 doesn't show any other Global models uh but we will take a look at what it's got right now then the 18z run so five areas to watch for right now uh number one is this area of Interest that's got a very low chance now moving in towards the bar uh not bar Bay of cichi eventually the second system currently active I think it's this that's the one that we're giving the highest chance to so watch that one very closely third one giving a low chance to here fourth one is this system that started to develop now west of Bermuda NC Mark that this evening and a fifth one should come in here from above up there so with those CES in mind let's watch what happens next few days so there's that system off the us and that doesn't become a cyclone but it is an interesting little Feature non-tropical Feature of uh of Maine and off Canada not much happening in the Gulf uh and then you've got those other systems near Cape verd both of them trying to develop both of them succeed and I think we already missed it there yes brief spin up look at that at the very top of the screen that other system out in the open Atlantic off it goes not lasting very long at all then we see these two systems in the Atlantic out east brief tropical storms not much going on here this is September we should be seeing more but then next week only starts developing on the 11th or 12th so it's still a long way out that's just for its development and then what happens later on very powerful hurricane and that is around the 16th so it is 11 days away it's a long long time when it comes to this kind of thing so I would not be sure on that scenario at all but it is a fascinating system there almost like a Louise actually moving on and recurving interesting stuff but that is very long range first focus on those small tropical storms that could form across the Atlantic now this East Pac system that Ethan was talking about could come partially from the energy of that current invest in the Caribbean and then eventually we do see something there this time it's a bit more delayed than what it was saying before around a 10th or 11th and There It Is Well really looking an absolute mess actually tries to develop looks like it does actually make it in the end what a tail on that one you ever seen anything like that Ethan no I have not looks really strange and brief tropical storm go uh go of California moves Inland doesn't actually manage to be a TC for that long watch quickly for this Central Pacific system still trying there low chance doesn't look like it will happen but Iona fans will be watching very closely I'm sure then of course we've got this obviously typhoon yagi GFS no surprise at all that has initiated the storm much weaker than what it currently is it's initialized the Storm at 111 mph so it's obviously stronger than that despite that GFS goes for more strengthening there I don't know if you can extrapolate it to its current situation but that's the intensification of 15 milph which say if it's 150 right now that could be 165 right there and then moves into WS land landfall landfall timing that's the six UTC um local time that's early hours of the 7th so what's that Friday early hours of Friday and then on this particular run um hardly any of it ends up in Vietnam there are some storm force winds there uh but it does end up moving a little bit further north maximum wins in Hong Kong looks like it will happen at about uh late morning tomorrow where it gets wins there according to this model of 66 mil hour and for maau also quite similar uh winds there of 64 mph at about 300 p.m. tomorrow and the onset of tropical storm force winds could be at about uh 400 p.m. today so actually that is a long time to receive tropical storm Force wins and that will continue until early hours of uh Friday so that could actually be 36 hours of tropical storm force winds for those major urban areas then the storm moves into land very close to ziang which in itself is a significant City that could be a category three or four landfall extremely powerful and then look how quickly it dies it is gone absolutely blown to Smither there that brief TC Ethan reckons its tropical storm based on ascat I haven't seen the ascat pass but I'll take your word for it there and off it goes and it does continue northwards then North eastwards dies off very quickly turn suppose tropical and then behind that an enormous little thing going on here uh what's happened is two areas of interest that are tangling around there over a massive low pressure center and none of them actually make it in the end according to that latest run that's why we brought that chance down from 60 to 50 and as you saw they're entering the shot that other system big typhoon potential here in the micronesian region there it is developing becoming a very strong but small typhoon category three or four there as it moves through the Northern Mariana Islands earlier runs took it closer to Guam as well so still be aware of that and then swinging round look at that Westward that is extremely powerful there barreling through the channel between the Philippines and Taiwan and look at that moving on towards the same places again following in the footsteps of yagi this time further south making landfall a little bit further south in Vietnam not fully sure what area that is it's south of Hong and Hanoi uh not too far from uh Vin so uh very fascinating to see what happens with that one that's just a crazy strong typhoon there small allf is out okay they've gone with Winds of 150 milph pressured 922 H quite a low pressure for that uh estimate certainly lower than what the guide is uh so interesting and um well 922 922 milars for 150 miles per hour is a little bit lower than what I'd give it I mean if you're going to give it 922 mbars I mean I I did ckz values now it's coming up with like 921 for Winds of 155 miles per hour we'll just quickly go through this uh towards the end of that run another typhoon moving along there and another system trying to form around it eventually being pulled right up off it goes end of the model run there quickly checking those other regions North Indian Ocean again that little system trying to form there quite soon eventually it dies off its remnants last for a good while actually continuing into there eventually moving over India and Bangladesh to the South Southwest Indian Ocean uh low pressure system there into the later part of the Run doesn't do very much though Australia nothing going on South Pacific shouldn't be anything here massive extratropical low there um South Atlantic for what it's worth I don't think so my favorite no it isn't and Mediterranean in case you might get a little surprise here every so often sometimes in September but not this time either briefly going to the rainfall charts and obviously we're expecting high amounts of rain for these areas that are going to be hit by yagi in the next few days there's the 7-Day rainfall expectation and again look what the first thing you'll notice is that from this storm the highest amount of rain in the next seven days is still in the Philippines um the Eastern sides of the storm the bands that are trailing along that west coast of the Philippines producing an extra 33 or 34 in of rain there that is over 600 mm 700 mm 800 mm and uh continuing further north there with high values as well in the storm itself right now we're looking at rainfall in 20s in terms of inches where it makes Land for maybe 15 in and that's about nearly 400 MM look at Hong Kong maybe 6 in 150 mm maau little bit more than that further west in Western guangong 10 in there maybe 250 mm and looking Inland as well near nanning and that kind of area very high amounts of rain up to 400 MM as well and a secondary area too off high Nan uh so the whole area really uh getting some really high rainfall values it's going to be a really messy situation and that is pretty much locked in uh regardless of the storm's final intensity here so that's uh that's a look at the models right now uh do you guys want to show us some of the other models I can bring them up myself if you want but uh Ethan's actually showing us something different the forecast cone okay that I've just produced on yagi I've given it winds of 155 miles hour pressure 922 mbars forecasting a brief Category 5 very brief and then slow weakening as it heads in land if I had a peg a landfall intensity right now I'd only give it 145 miles hour and then weakening and believe it or not I I do think that a major landfall is on the cars for Northern Vietnam I'd probably only give it a 115 mph landfall there um although I wouldn't rule out the storm potentially rest strengthening maybe 5 miles per hour in these regions it's known to happen with particularly the weaker storms where the convergence of the bay helps storms like a five m per hour boost I just don't think it's going to happen to that strength no probably not probably probably not but you never can rule it out but a slow weakening Trend as it heads towards highand is currently forecasted and a a little bit of a faster weakening Trend as it heads into the Gulf of tonan then Landing direction is going to keep it on a weakening Trend maybe weakening down to a highend cat 2 as it makes landfall in Vietnam I wouldn't say that a weaker storm is possible um and then rapidly weaking Force at a head in land and by day four as you said Nathan it should be um I mean I've given a depression a day four but it honestly could be remant low sooner than that wow interesting interesting I'm surprised she didn't go for a higher Peak uncertainty was the main factor um uh maybe because I want to see how the storm performed over the next 12 hours um before giving a higher Peak um mainly due to as as was alluding before that secondary eyewall that um could prevent a could lead to cycle soon this it's not even guaranteed that th makes it into Category 5 see this all right let's quickly look at the other models here the European model um taking the storm strengthening gradually it's woefully behind on the pressure uh but it has the peak on um early hours of Friday as it's approaching land and then just slight weakening until it Clips the northern tip of hyan through the Le super Peninsula and in that scenario maybe it could be a major landf for Vietnam because it stays pretty much overwater shooting that gap between the mainland of China and hyan now that would be interesting um before before you do continue Nathan just want to say for those who did miss that forecast cone or didn't see the full image it will be available on our Twitter um or X whatever you want to call it here about know a minute but that's where you can find the the full cone and the full image if you would like to to share it um with people in this region I would gladly appreciate that because this storm I could say that uh H has not experienced a storm this strong in quite some time maybe it's been 10 years actually [Music] so yeah um the Canadian model uh actually has the stor going further north uh it's a landfall north of the Leu Peninsula so it wouldn't hit Vietnam at all there and die off very quickly over Southern China also forecasting that next big typhoon 2 icon model let's have a little look at this and you can see as well that storm uh that model actually has the storm near Peak at landfall if not at Peak at landf on the icon well that's interesting and again maybe a major landfall in Northern Vietnam well that is interesting sorry you may have not have seen it on the screen there there it is once again moving on through let's check some of the hurricane models the hwrf well that takes it further north a little bit further north sanang landfall there and continuing in land never quite makes it interfere now I'm right on the border there in land oh it does in the end when it's much weaker um again underestimating the peak here let's just extrapolate it to where it is right now they reckon at the minute it's 125 mph and 929 that sounds pretty shoddy and they expect uh a 10 knot increase and a pressure decrease of six so again category five pretty much borderline category five uh hmon isn't running anymore hfsa uh they're currently giving it 9914 and 140 mph wins they actually have it currently at Peak intensity and gradual weakening all the way until landfall uh I don't know what that's seeing but that is quite something HFS takes it from 140 mph right now to a landfall of 80 mph on the coast of China um I don't see that happening somehow but obviously would be really happy if it did and no hfsb either so that's a look at some of those closeup models interesting stuff as we continue to watch this very powerful storm and we are almost up to time so I don't know if any of you guys want to talk about uh any other factors on this uh before we uh pack up and take a look at what happened on this day I think that's all I have we'll also take a look at some questions just before we go here as well I'm just going to get that racked up um all right let's see what we've got a lot of people saying a lot of things by the looks of things here um dark Steve says the cloud Tops on the east side have diminished severely and the eye is displaced to the east thoughts let's just update this imagery um let's get a new I think it's been recked here so we can get the latest frames again watch that well not much going on there only slight is making it sound worse than it is there I think um no no signs of oh it's just just reloaded that took ages so let's just have a look again here Eastern side well it does look like taking a bit of a wobble uh it does look like it's getting a little bit um don't think what the word is lost my vocabulary again tonight destabilized and uh maybe that's a product of wind shear that we're looking at there it's looking a lot more lopsided in those latest frames and we always want to be very cautious when we're trying to um look at this because we're really not sure that it you know it might bounce back but the eye is still warming in those frames as well quite a bit what do you think of that imagery Ethan as I said the eyew warming is usually a sign of more significant intensification than the cloud tops cooler no but the cloud tops are warming there on the Eastern side and it's becoming quite a bit more disheveled I'm pretty sure that's wind shear taking an impact there but as it stands I reckon super typhoon is still pretty much concrete uh but maybe some signs that the storm is not having it all its own way right there and that will be fascinating to look at in the next few hours I'm sure um we will of course continue on the automated stream which you can check out uh just go to our YouTube channel it will be redirected you'll be redirected there when we finish up here as well in a sec so stay tuned for that well we're going to take a look at what happened on this day then I'd like to thank our team for taking part again on another live stream Ethan JJ and Zada and Jose was supposed to be with us today as well but uh unfortunately had to go away at the last minute but we uh thank him for his uh intention to join us tonight well let's take a look at what happened on this day then it was September 5th 1996 when we had a big storm on the way for the US East Coast it was Hurricane Fran and there is some satellite imagery animations of it there continuing northwestwards and ended up making a powerful major hurricane I think it was still a major hurricane when it made landfall uh in just about uh I think it was on the border of the Carolinas Sally had just formed that would become a powerful typhoon as well in the West Pack 8 l in the Atlantic 2 what's left of Edward tropical depression Elida dying off and 3 S in the South Indian Ocean already up to number three by that point back to today in the Atlantic the next name is Francine in the Eastern Pacific it's Ilana and in the C Central Pacific it's Iona yeah we're very used to saying that we're still waiting for hone but no more pleased to say West Pacific next up is leapy and in the North Indian Ocean it will be Danna or [Music] Dana and of course in the southern hemisphere things will be warming up in the next few months as they get towards their summer Australian region the next name is Robin southwest Indian Ocean South Pacific Pitter we'll be back again with another live tropical weather bulletin tomorrow night become an Ultimate Fan today [Music]