Tropical Storm Expected To Form In Gulf of Mexico Within Days

YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE IMPACTS TO THE GAME WITH OUR ROE. BUT I'LL TELL YOU ONE THING. WE DO HAVE ANOTHER TROPICAL AREA THAT WE'RE WATCHING VERY CLOSELY. AND THIS COULD VERY WELL TAKE THE HEADLINE, ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEK. SO I KNOW IT'S SUNDAY. I KNOW WE'RE KICKING BACK, WE'RE WATCHING FOOTBALL, WE'RE ENJOYING THE END OF THIS WEEKEND. BUT IF YOU'RE IN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA, YOU NEED TO BE PAYING VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST, TO YOUR LOCAL OFFICIALS, TOO, AND MAKE SURE YOUR PREPARATIONS ARE READY TO GO. THIS IS INVEST 91 L. IT'S IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. IT'S SITTING IN SOME VERY WARM WATERS RIGHT NOW. WE KNOW THAT THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO LIKELY GAIN SOME MORE ORGANIZATION AS WE GO THROUGH MAYBE THE DAY TO DAY ON INTO TOMORROW, WE COULD EVEN SEE TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE ON THE BOARD BY TOMORROW. WITH THAT IN MIND, TROPICAL WATCHES LIKELY TO BE ISSUED SOMETIME TODAY. MAYBE EARLY TOMORROW FOR THE TEXAS LOUISIANA COASTLINE. SO THAT SHOULD BE YOUR BELL GOING OFF. HEY, I NEED TO BE PAYING ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST FOR MY AREA WHERE I LIVE. YOU CAN DO THAT ON YOUR FOX WEATHER APP, AND WE'RE GOING TO BE WITH YOU EVERY STEP OF THE WAY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT AND THE BIGGEST TAKEAWAY FROM THIS IS RAIN. AND NICK IS GOING TO DETAIL WHAT THAT RAIN LOOKS LIKE. BUT FLOODING A CERTAIN POSSIBILITY ALONG THE TEXAS LOUISIANA COAST LINES INVEST 91 L. THIS IS OUR MODEL WIND INTENSITY FORECAST. NOW THE CAVEAT HERE IS THAT THE SYSTEM HASN'T FORMED YET. SO THERE'S A LOT OF VARIABILITY, A LOT OF CHANGE AND UNCERTAINTY THAT IS STILL ON THE BOARD FOR WHERE WE SIT RIGHT NOW. SO THIS IS JUST A BLUEPRINT FOR WHAT COULD BE TROPICAL STORM, MAYBE A LOW END CATEGORY ONE BY THE TIME WE GET TO ABOUT MIDWEEK. NOW WHERE IS THAT STORM AT THAT INTENSITY? IS IT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO? IS IT MAKING LANDFALL? THAT'S STILL A QUESTION, RIGHT? HOW QUICKLY DOES THIS GET STEERED UP TO THE NORTH? THE PROBLEM IS, WHEN WE LOOK OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS, WE HAVE OUR STALLED BOUNDARY THAT'S STILL HANGING AROUND, STILL BRINGING IN SHOWERS TO FLORIDA. BUT THE THING IS, IS THAT WE HAVE INVEST 90 L, THE REMNANTS OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS HANGING AROUND ALONG THAT STALLED FRONT ALL THIS PAST WEEK. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAD THEIR EYES ON IT. MAYBE MAYBE NOT. BUT THE SPIN IS STILL THERE. WE ALSO HAVE INVEST 91 L, WHICH IS A SEPARATE AREA OF SPIN, A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. SO WE'LL TALK ABOUT HOW THOSE TWO AREAS OF SPIN ARE PLAYING INTO A LOT OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY. RIGHT NOW. BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE BROAD BIG PICTURE CONDITIONS, LOW WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO, THAT IS GOING TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. WE HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS VERY WARM WATERS THAT'S GOING TO BEGIN TO PLAY A BIT OF A ROLE IN HERE. WE HAVE A UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT'S GOING TO SNEAK ITS WAY IN BY THE TIME WE GET TO EARLY MIDWEEK TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO, IS GOING TO BE THE STEERING COMPONENT TO PULL THIS SYSTEM UP TO THE NORTH. SO THAT'S WHERE WE'RE BRINGING IN THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA COASTLINE. BY THE TIME WE GET TO SAY ABOUT MIDWEEK. THE OTHER PIECE TO THIS IS MOISTURE AND DRY AIR. HOW IS THAT GOING TO PLAY? A BIT OF A ROLE. SO WE'LL DETAIL THAT IN MORE OF CERTAINTY COMING UP TOO. BUT AS FAR AS TRACK CONFIDENCE GOES, WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO GET PULLED UP TO THE NORTH. AND BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, WE COULD BE TALKING ALREADY A LANDFALLING STORM. SO MODEL GUIDANCE HUGGING THE UPPER TEXAS LOUISIANA COASTLINE FOR THAT POTENTIAL LANDFALL. BUT, NICK, I'LL HAVE YOU TAKE IT AWAY. IT'S NOT ALL ABOUT WHERE THIS SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL. IT'S ABOUT THE RAIN AND THE WIND IMPACTS THAT ARE GOING TO STRETCH WELL BEYOND THAT. YEAH, I THINK THAT'S NUMBER ONE. AND NUMBER TWO, IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, RAIN LIKELY BEING NUMBER ONE BY FAR AND AWAY. BUT YOU CAN'T TURN YOUR BACK ON THE WIND, ESPECIALLY WHEN EVERYTHING IS A LITTLE BIT SOGGY. MEANWHILE, LET'S SHOW YOU SOME OF THIS LIGHTNING OVER PORT ORANGE FLORIDA. BEFORE WE TALK MORE ABOUT FLORIDA AND THE REST OF THE COAST. YEAH, A LOT OF LIGHTNING SHOWING UP. IT'S BEEN FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST ALL WEEK LONG, AND UNFORTUNATELY, MORE RAIN IS ON THE WAY. THIS IS WHAT JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA AND PARTS OF GEORGIA LOOKS LIKE RIGHT NOW. IT IS DREARY AND GRAY, AND EVENTUALLY THOSE CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN HERE AS WE GO INTO TIME. MONDAY NOT LOOKING TOO BAD OF ALL THE DAYS OF THE WORKWEEK COMING UP MONDAY, FRIDAY PROBABLY THE BEST COUPLE, BUT STILL WE DO HAVE THAT TWO OUT OF FOUR RISK ON MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS AND ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND FLORIDA COASTLINE. AND THAT RISK GROWS BIGGER, PUSHES A LITTLE BIT FURTHER NORTH INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, SOME 15.5 MILLION PEOPLE LIVING ALONG THE GULF COAST, AND ALL OF THEM SHOULD HAVE AN EYE TOWARDS THE SKY, OR AT LEAST WATCHING US RIGHT HERE ON FOX WEATHER. AS WE MOVE FORWARD. AS YOU SEE THAT SYSTEM PUSHING NORTHBOUND AND SPREADING THE RAIN ALL ACROSS THE GULF, WITH LIKELY LOUISIANA TAKING ON THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN. REMEMBER THE NORTHEASTERN AND CERTAINLY REALLY JUST THE EASTERN SIDE OF THESE STORMS ARE REALLY THE MOST WATERLOGGED. AND THAT'S WHERE THE BIGGEST SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL COME THROUGH. ADAM KLOTZ MENTIONED IT EARLIER, THE GRADIENT, THE CUTOFF FOR A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN AND REALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT, CERTAINLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM. AND THEN YOU GET OVER TO THE EAST AND SOMETIMES ALL BETS ARE OFF AND YOU SEE THAT A LOT OF HEAVY RAIN EVEN AS FAR NORTH AS, SAY, JACKSON, MISSISSIPPI, AND MAYBE EVEN MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS TUPELO. AND SO THAT'S A CAUSE FOR CONCERN INLAND FLOODING, FLOODING, FRESH WATER, FLOODING. A BIG ISSUE IS YOU KNOW, WHAT COMES DOWN EVENTUALLY HAS TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK TO THE OCEAN. SO YOU'VE GOT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THERE AND ALL THE INLETS AND RIVERS AND CREEKS AND STREAMS THAT ARE ATTACHED TO IT. AND A LOT OF THAT COULD GET BACKED UP AND FLOODED OVER. AND RUNNING AT FLOOD STAGE AS WELL. WE'VE SEEN THAT TIME AND TIME AGAIN IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. AND HERE'S JUST A QUICK NOTE AS TO WHERE THE RAIN COULD FALL AND HOW MUCH COULD ADD UP. AND THAT'S KIND OF THE GRADIENT THAT I WAS MENTIONING RIGHT THERE. HOPEFULLY HOUSTON DOESN'T TAKE ON TOO MUCH WATER. THEY'VE SEEN A LOT ALREADY THIS YEAR OVER THE LAST WEEK THOUGH. JANE. IT'S BEEN WET ALREADY. YOU KNOW, NO TROPICAL SYSTEM NEEDED. LOOK IN NEW ORLEANS THERE