Emini Overview - Tuesday, September 3, 2024 - Joseph Imbornone (Al Brooks Methods)

hey everybody hope everyone's doing well this is the E mini overview for Tuesday September 3rd 2024 and today it's the first trading day of the month so we can start with the monthly chart I did touch on the monthly chart in the last video so it's basically the same idea Market we're in a rally L one pullback l two and this rally subdivided into three pushes so we're in late leg territory up here here's the month of August it's a big bull reversal bar with a big tail and small body that's a high one by but like I said it might be late in a rally two big l two big legs up and three smaller legs up and the high1 signal bar is a big bar and the problem with that for the Bulls is the Traders equation if a bull is buying above the August monthly bar here's their one: one all the way up here well past 6,000 and you look at the distance that the market sold off from the high of July to the low of August and you wonder is it really 60% that the market is going up here before down here it's not 60% it's because of that you cannot take this trade for a onetoone scalp if you are buying here you need to be swinging but the reality is Market's probably going lower fairly soon so Traders are more likely looking to sell in this area than buy and then for the weekly chart it's the same idea so coming into the week we have this but big down big up the Bears want a major Trend reversal here's a bull Trend trend line break retest of the of the bull Trend extreme and then an outside bar last week and it's a high one at the top of the trading range the market is back in an area where Traders were trapped to the left Bulls were disappointed Bears if they missed the selloff they're looking to sell the retest so bulls and bears probably looking to sell in this area I would Side Bar it's a trading range bar expanding triangle within an overall trading range and if you're buying here you're buying high in the range and then for the daily chart same thing big down big up the Market's in a trading range this rally was strong but it's consecutive buy climaxes buy Climax pause buy Climax pause all the way up and then we've been mostly sideways here for about eight or 10 bars and the market is back in breakout mode and it's in a tight trading range here but overall the Market's in a more broad trading range here and we're in the upper third of that broad trading range there's an increased chance that if we go any higher the upside is limited and there's sellers above because we'd be high in this trading range and in the overall trading range but if we do go below the type trading range low there's probably buyers below the Market's been above the moving average for more than 10 bars this rally was strong enough for a second leg was this the second leg I don't know this could be part of the bull flag maybe we pull back further and then get a second leg to the upside and just one other thing I found interesting about the daily chart after seeing how today panned out it reminded me of a day on the five minute and I made a note of it so I didn't have to waste time looking for it if you look at the open of the day July 26 this year you can see the similarities between the two charts here's the daily chart as of today here's the F minute chart from July 26th you can see expanding triangle one two three legs down each leg is getting getting incrementally larger than the last and it's the same idea here 1 2 3 expanding triangle higher highs lower lows in both cases and even in both cases we had this rally and then the expanding triangle possible bull flag over here we gapped up functionally it's the same as a breakout or a spike so we gapped up expanding triangle and we can see what ended up happening on this day the market ended up rallying also very similar this is this bar is the first close below the moving average in several bars maybe 10 or 12 bars just like over here but that gets into expectations for tomorrow and I'll save that for the end so for today coming into the day we had a big gap down and a couple of bear bars on the open it's not as strong as the Bears would have liked bar one's a trading range bar bar two prominent tail below but big gap down and a pair of bear bars is probably always in short nothing for the Bulls to buy the problem for the Bears is that you're so far below the average price the 20 EMA which is one measure of average you're so far below the average price that if you're selling way down here you want to see above average bearishness and so far a trading range bar and a bar with Buyers into the close is probably not sufficient and we go lower at this point it's a micro channel it's a tight well technically it's a spike on this time frame there's been no pullbacks and then you can see we sold off paused on three sold off paused on six sold off again on seven seven it's a possible sell vacuum testing yesterday's low and a parabolic wedge the expectation is a minor reversal and we could come up and test the high of bar seven maybe we'll test the low of bar five or six there's an open Gap and at this point for the Bears like I said it's a parabolic wedge and that's a breakout on a higher time frame look at the 15minute chart up to Bar Nine it's just three be bars especially a strong third bar where it opened at the open of Bar Seven closed on the close of nine so we have a bare Spike this is still a micro channel so it's a nine bar bare micro channel the odds are the first reversal will fail again the expectation after a parabolic wedge is a minor reversal and then at least another leg down but at this point we have a big bear Spike you call it a tight bear Channel we're getting pauses along the way but there's no reason to buy at this point it's two there's just not enough buying pressure it's good for the Bulls bar six bar 10 a couple of bull bars closing near their Highs but just look at the chart and you can see even limit order Bulls are not making money and then we had the small pull back to Bar 12 three bull bars good for the Bulls but was there a significant trend line break not really here's the trend line 12 is testing the trend line but at this point it's still more likely a minor reversal also bar eight this could be the most recent major lower high and until the Bulls get above the most recent major lower high Market is still more likely in a bare Trend if it does get above the most recent major lower high then you could argue is either a bull Trend or a trading range some Traders will even consider the hive Bar Seven the most recent major lower high this might be more minor but in any case you can see the Bears prevented the market from getting above that price or continuing lower bare breakout inside bar and be bar so this is actually follow through even though it's not very strong and then another breakout on bar 16 with minimum follow through the Bears were were able to prevent a bull body but you can see the bears actually did close one tick below the low of bar 16 on 17 that's good for the Bears also I may have mentioned this earlier the Bears at this point have open gaps and that's good for the Bears this is so far a small pullback Trend there's actually no technical pullback until bar 11 and if a bull bought below bar three six even bar eight if you bought below eight then you finally as a bull were able to make money but before that you're trapped all the way down this is a tight bare channel so in general you only want to look to be selling there's not enough buying pressure there's no major Trend reversal for the Bulls they need if the Bulls are looking to buy especially for a swing they need to see a strong trend line break preferably with a close above the moving average even a bar completely above the moving average breaking the bare trend line and then a retest of the bare Trends extreme the low of the bare Trend and only then you can look for a major reversal but we don't have any of that at this point this is just a really strong tight bare Channel and then 18 it's a cell reverse IAL bar the bar closed below its midpoint but it has a bold body it's a weak low one couple of different ways you can look at the leg count here maybe leg one from bar one to Bar five and then a fairly significant pause on bar six another leg down from 7 to 9 another significant pause an actual pullback and then a third leg down to Bar 17 so the market has had three pushes down so as I was saying on Bar Seven parabol wedge expecting a minor reversal you can say the same here now bar 18's a weak low one probably buyers below and then we went outside up 19 and we went a little higher to Bar 21 but 21 look at 20 and 21 for the Bulls micro double Bottom bar 17 and 19 and then a good bar for the Bulls on 19 but then weak follow through and then an inside bar so the Market's Contracting it's more of a trading range over the past a few bars maybe big down big up if anything it's either a trading range or still a bare Trend in any case this rally for the Bulls is strong enough for a second leg and there's probably buyers below bar 21 three bar micro channel it's a weak stop order sell signal bar but also look where the Market's testing bar 12 was a weak low one signal bar but it got good follow through Traders were trapped so on a retest of that price you can see what happened on bar 20 we tested that price and Traders sold Bulls who bought scaled and lower they're exiting Longs Bears who missed the sell they're also selling to get short for a second lag down so again remember we're expecting a minor reversal here 10 bars and two legs so far we have one leg and maybe five bars pulling back with an outside bar but we're expecting the first attempt of trend resumption to the downside to fail because this breakout the bull breakout was strong enough for our second leg and then there's our second leg to Bar 26 now we have two legs up about 10 bars and we're testing the moving average 26 is a low to signal bar testing the moving average in a bare Trend it's in credible stop order sell if Bulls were buying hoping for a reversal they'll allow the market to go against them one time here but not two times here and you can argue it went against them here but more minor you can call 21 a low one 24 the low two and 26 the low three doesn't really matter what you call it but what's important is you understand what the Market's doing we broke out out we're testing a breakout point and the breakout Point became resistance and now we have a sell setup in a bare Trend compare the rally here to the sell off here you know this is minor and probably not going to reverse this and so the danger for the Bulls the be trend is still intact we can get a measured move down of this bare flag and then a good entry bar on the low to 27 and you can see we drifted sideways to down but what's good for the Bears is most of the bars today pretty much all the bars today have been below the moving average with a small tail above the moving average on 34 so let me touch on 33 what about buying above 33 be Trend trend break is this a higher low major Trend reversal it might be and this is actually an example I had a question about this about stop orders bar 33 is an example of a stop order that Al might mark on the chart even if you end up seeing that it fails he'll mark this because Traders will take the buy and they'll say okay be Trend trend line break really not ideal because ideally the trend line break would be bigger like I said earlier the market would the Bulls would get the market above the moving average and then on the retest the Bulls buy for a major reversal but here you know maybe there's enough bars for a major reversal but strong trend line breaks with surges in momentum are better than when the market just drifts more sideways but in any case this could be or you could argue this is a higher low major Trend reversal setup for the Bulls bare Trend trend line break retest plus the retest we're getting a wedge three pushes down and then a good signal bar 33 33 is a bar that if you're a bear it's reasonable to get out of shorts above 33 and Bulls can buy but if you're a bull you want your entry bar to be like bar 19 you want a bar breaking out closing above the moving average trapping Traders trapping Bears into losing shorts trapping Bulls out and then forced to chase the market and that's your entry bar and that's fairly disappointing and 34 might be enough to conclude that your premise is no longer valid you're hoping for a major reversal but the reality is the market might be still in a bare Trend where rallies to the moving average are getting sold so you're disappointed as a bull you buy disappointing entry bar you might just exit on the close of 34 and it looks like that's what happened on 35 and then we had this micro channel for the Bears and it might be low in the range you can see a lot of overlap here but what the Bears still have is lower highs and lower lows so we're still in a bare Channel now we have a micro channel the odds are the first reversal attempt will fail so even though 43 is a good-look bullbar micro double bottom with 40 the upside is probably limited decent breakout strong enough for a second leg up probably buyers below but the Bulls buying are buying for scalps and then a cell vacuum 45 but a bad stop order cell below 44 probably at least come back and test the low of bar 44 and then you can see we got another leg up 46 47 so what about buying 47 or what about even buying here for the major reversal bare Trend trend line break retest now we have a lower low major Trend reversal and there's three pushes down double bottom nested and a good signal bar it's kind of the same idea with 33 you can buy and you did get a good entry bar but then you want the next bar to be sort of a duplicate bar you want 48 to look like 47 and that's what you get on 48 so that's your disappointment also think about it this is the first close above the moving average all day and we've been in a pretty strong bare Trend so Traders are probably going to sell the first close above the moving average and then if you did buy if you bought here or here as a bull 48's disappointing you might give up on the close of 48 your premise May no no longer be valid if you're buying you're buying a rally in a bare Trend and that's exactly where Traders sell Bulls who bought lower SC they're scalping out and bears are selling rallies to get in at a discount and everybody sells 49 and you can see here the market is largely sideways but I did say we're still getting lower lows and lower highs and what about buying 53 is it a final flag maybe it's a late bare bre break out a couple of inside bars it might be but when we judge or compare the selling pressure to the buying pressure today it's clear we have more bear bars more strong bear bars than strong bull bars we've had only two closes above the moving average all day the odds that this is the bottom of a trading range is probably 50% at best if that and these are weak stop order signal bars probably sellers above 53 and then almost outside down 54 getting a bare breakout possibly Trend resumption and then more of a breakout 55 55 is either a measuring Gap or an exhaustion Gap now 55 it's not the biggest bar in the trend and that's good for the Bears if it was bigger than Bar Seven that would be a problem more likely exhaustion but at this point this may may more likely be measuring Gap so here's most recent bare leg here's the breakout point the 51 low breaking out 54 55 we're already almost at this target probably going to get there if we do we can then just keep increasing the target as the market goes along so bare breakout follow through more follow through probably going lower but may have to pull back first most breakouts pull back and we got a small spiking Channel and then a pullback testing the start of the channel might start to go more sideways but there's still not a credible major Trend reversal setup here the Bulls need to get a trend line break all over again you can see the Market's going we went sideways at this target but there was not enough buying for a major reversal so here's the next Target 66 we came close but now maybe we have a couple of legs down and we need a correction but is there anything to buy in here not really there's been one or two bull bars in the past almost 15 or 20 bars and that's really not great buying pressure and when there's no reason to buy that means it's also okay to hold on to shorts so moving along here's a bare breakout on 7374 maybe we're testing another measuring Gap maybe this sort of trading range or bare Channel measured move down now 74 now we're within the final 10 bars of the day 74 11o bar 55 was less than eight points so 74 is one of the biggest bars of the day occurring late in a bare Trend and also late in the day and it's common to get a rally at the end of a bare Trend day because of Institutions taking profits on their shorts so we're getting late in the day we're getting a possible this is either a measuring Gap or an exhaustion Gap we don't know but we know that we're late in a trend this is a bigger bar we've had a lot of dogies and sideways through here maybe it's a final flag and then the follow through reversal bar closing above its midpoint and then another reversal bar closing below its midpoint so cell climax cell climax pullback cell climax pullback so we may pullback and the first Target is the start of this exhaustion got but if we do get here probably sellers above and then you can see 78 vacuumed up right to that price it's a good looking bull bar but probably resistance right at the moving average as well we went a little bit higher but then found sellers so for stop order trades today thought it was reasonable and sell below bar for at least for a scalp at that point you don't know it's a bare Trend day but you do know there's no reason to buy it's a decent signal bar and it's a four bar micro Channel after a gap down and then through here the low two below 26 reasonable stop order sell there's another lower high double top below 35 you could sell and the Market's always in short all day today so realistically you can sell on a stop order below any bar closing below its midpoint and if you exit above a bull bar like 19 or 33 you just sell again below a be bar like 35 so now we have a low to 48 thought that was reasonable to sell 54 you could sell low 156 you could sell low 162 but late in the day I don't know maybe you sell 73 but this is looking more like profit taking at least in my opinion late in a trend and we're getting a good-look breakout with bad follow through so Traders probably going to start to take profits down here and aggressive bulls will start buying but it's also late in the day and if you're not in any position might be better to just leave it alone and of course today was a bare Trend day you can call it a small pullback bare Trend so where do we go tomorrow so like I said in the beginning of the video we're in a trading range big down big up Market rallied we're going sideways now we have an expanding triangle the biggest bear bar the first close below the moving average in many bars I think the expectation for tomorrow is disappointment for the Bears the Bears are hoping we just collapse and fall for a measured move of this trading range and get follow through tomorrow another Trend day but I think more likely the Bears will be disappointed even if we do go below today's low there may be buyers some distance below and you know pick a place to the left support here I don't think we'll get all the way down here but let's see I don't know maybe the high of August 14th but the point is I think the downside is limited and I think the market is overall in a trading range and disappointment is the Hallmark of trading ranges so I think Trend bars breakout attempts are typically going to be followed by disappointment just look at the trend bars through here a lot of them had bad follow through with the exception here and I wanted to mention just one other thing before I wrap up this video if anyone happens to be struggling right now this is just a reminder that you have to be kind to yourself and it's like Al said you have to be your own cheerleader and you know what you're learning and what you're doing here is considered by many people to be extremely difficult and even impossible so if people don't believe it's possible then they won't believe in you and so it's up to you to believe in you and to root for yourself but if you do have external support you know you should consider yourself to be very fortunate but the reality is you're not going to have you're typically not going to have a lot of support you know trading is it's get rich slow and it takes patience and persistence and you're going to have Painful experiences you know losing trades bad trading days and you're going to make mistakes along the way but all of the you know the painful experiences and the losing trades the bad days every mistake is a potential lesson if you just examine them if you find something that that makes you uncomfortable or that you struggle with or that you can't explain simply and you stare hard at it and meditate on it you'll start to find answers and that discomfort is just an indication of a learning opportunity so in other words there's potential for growth and failure can be a very positive part of your life because you can't have failure without success or success without failure and it doesn't have to be painful you know once you begin to learn how to effectively make mistakes reflect and improve you start to Crave mistakes kind of like a runner's high and on this topic Ally does a great job of explaining ideas related to this in his article on the Brooks trading course website and I'll put a link to that article in the description of this video and I digress here I think it's worth saying I've been taking cold showers for four or five months now and even still I sometimes will stall and I'll struggle to get into the shower even though I know once I'm in the water I'll adapt and I'll be fine but my mind makes up these stories like it's so difficult it's painful it's uncomfortable but the reality is it only feels uncomfortable for a couple of seconds at this point before my body realizes and remembers that it's fine in the cold water and there's no need to be tense and to even shift my thinking from the water feels cold to it isn't cold it's just what it feels like you have the ability to control your mind your thoughts you know your ideas perspectives and you can remind yourself that you know in this case in this example you're safe in the shower and you're actually lucky and fortunate to have running water and once you start thinking that way the water doesn't seem to feel cold anymore so why am I saying all of this how does it relate to trading well it applies to everything really and that's why I take cold showers I know there are health benefits and I don't even really know them like it it boosts your immune system improves circulation but the real reason I do it is for the metaphorical reasons and as sort of a reminder to challenge myself every day to do my best but specifically for this example the point I'm getting at is to just do it and so when you find something you struggle with you know that's that's your indication of what you need to be studying so in essence just do it you know find something you struggle with and attack it and don't overthink it that's why it's so hard as a beginner in any Endeavor you know you're standing at the bottom of a mountain and you can't see the top and there's a lot to learn everything everything's a weakness it can be overwhelming and you don't even know where to begin but the key is to just begin that's the key point that I'm getting at rip the Band-Aid off and just as Al says jump off the high dive get into the cold shower don't even think about it because it's so easy to overthink and lose sight of the goal and if it's overwhelming then it can probably get broken down into smaller pieces so I would also say breaking things down into baby steps is also key and uh getting started is always the hardest part is it's basically it's the law of inertia change is always hard getting into the cold shower is always hard you might come into trading with beliefs that are counterproductive and might even inhibit your ability to learn there's kind of a mindset shift that goes on in the process especially I know for myself my perspective and mindset on trading from day one to year five have shifted dramatically I came into hardly believing it was possible that someone could look at a chart and understand what's going on on every tick of every bar but there was something about Al's books and videos that convinced me that it was possible plus you know I was also 18 or 19 at the time I was arrogant and naive thinking I could figure it out in one or two years even though it took Al who is an incredibly smart and accomplished individual 10 years and I know granted he didn't have the material and resources we have thanks to him but still it was I came into it thinking this is you know get rich quick and I found the more I studied the more I believed it was possible but the problem I had was basically I I wanted the leaves before I even got the roots so to speak you know you only need to believe something until you want understand it and then you don't need to believe anymore and the way I see it belief eventually gets replaced with faith but faith can only be achieved through you know they say 10,000 hours of meaningful experience and so the point is you can read Al's material listen to all his videos and memorize everything but memorizing the information does you no good you know you you won't truly believe it until you discover it for yourself so when Al talks about probabilities for example you should challenge him you know do a market study try to prove him wrong and see what you end up with and I know I got off track there but I just had a few things on my mind that I wanted to share all right thanks everybody for watching I hope everyone has a good night